These comments aren't entirely wrong, but I feel with some digging into the matchup things might look different. Maybe it's just hard to objectively analyze this matchup at this early stage in the game's life - there are so many great players repping and developing Sheik everywhere, but very few use D3 at a high level.
So I’ll put in my unpopular two cents. Some of my local friends are fantastic Sheik/Rosa mains (coughtierjunkiescough), and after stupid amount of matches against them, I believe this matchup is:
50:50, even. And I might even put this a bit in
's favor, 55:45 - that if the two players are of equal skill, D3 should win. Why?
Simply put: while having a difficult time capitalizing on her strengths already, Sheik is forced make harder reads and take bigger risks to kill D3. And why? Because who D3 is emphasizes Sheik’s weaknesses in play, more than any other matchup in the game.
Overall, Sheik is pretty much all strengths: she racks up damage while (safely) mixing you up, quickly forces you offstage, then gimps you to hell with only 40% on your stock. Her recovery is good with the walljumping/clinging + teleport UpB, so her only real weaknesses (read: basically negligible) are a lack of disjointed hitboxes (made up for by her speed and safety) and very low knockback (she doesn’t even need knockback to kill).
In theory then, heavier characters should capitalize on that killing power weakness and destroy Sheik. Yet Sheik
wrecks the heavies. Why? Ganondorf, Bowser, DK – aside from their speed, they all have:
1. No projectile, thus are forced to fight this stupidly safe ninja demon up close + give up free % to Needles in neutral
2. Two jumps – easy to punish landings, escape attempts from combos, etc, and…
3. Easily predictable + gimp-able recovery.
Seriously, playing Bowser against a good Sheik should be a circle of hell in Dante’s Inferno. But D3 is another story. Let’s start with two of Sheik’s strengths, damage-racking and gimp potential, then move on to a few other points.
Damage-racking: Sheik does this really well (endless Ftilt/Fair chains, Uair cancels, grab resets, etc). But albeit not quite as well, so does D3 (jab cancels, Uair cancels, Gordo combos, etc). But the difference: D3 can get out of just about any Sheik combo with pretty simple DI + floating away. Even at 0%, D3 should never get trapped in more than 1-2 Ftilt/Fair chains. And even if the king DIs poorly and gets knocked offstage….
Gimp potential: here, D3 beats Sheik, both offensively and defensively. With five jumps, Gordos, and an armored recovery, D3 has the breathing room to make mistakes, get hit, hit back, and
still recover with ease. No one should be gimping D3, outside of several hard reads. Sheik just doesn’t have the knockback to kill D3 offstage, outside of Bouncing Fish at high %s. Her recovery is decent, but D3 can unique threaten Sheik offstage - outside her UpB recovery range - and still comfortably make it home for dinner.
Gordo: Sheik’s needles are just
eaten by Gordo. And as I’ve said before, any character without a solid projectile to hit Gordos back automatically opens up a swath of D3 pressure advantages. Here, we can force Sheik to alter her approach, airdodge timing, and Gordo reflect decisions. Now, Sheik reflecting Gordo with normals is great – a good D3 wants opponents to reflect with their normals – because then
they're playing our game and D3 should win that game 9/10 times. This is an advantage, which lets us nicely hamper Sheik’s approach and recovery options throughout – no more free Bouncing Fishes, fastfall Nairs, walljumps, etc.
Kill %s: D3 just. doesn’t. die in this matchup until 160%, often surviving past 180%+.
Bouncing Fish and UpB are Sheik’s two main kill moves – and both are predictable, telegraphed, and sometimes punishable. The SECOND you get above 120%,
anticipate and dodge/shield these moves. Then chuck out Gordo to 1. Punish by direct hit if possible or 1. Set up an unpleasant pressure situation for Sheik as she recovers. Note that Bouncing Fish is SAFE when started in the air - and they can change its speed, distance, and recovery arc at will. It’s really annoying.
Sheik dies stupidly early at ~90% here, especially when D3 has rage (which you probably will for most of the match, FYI). While I find most of my kills come from her running into my Gordo traps, fastfall Bair, Dsmash, and well-placed Uair all kill her very early.
Spacing and attacking: Sheik is fast and mostly safe, while D3 is slow and full of disjointed hitboxes. Character knowledge is key here, and this is where individual player skill will really be shown. Air-to-air, it’s entirely a toss-up of reading skill – we outrange her, but she can bait/airdodge through our longer aerial endlag.
With Sheik’s speed, D3 WILL lose the majority of exchanges, but we only need to win one of every three or so exchanges to be winning the damage war. D3 can threaten with instant death (Bair) at a range where Sheik can’t hit us - outside of Bouncing Fish. See above. Smartly use pivot Ftilt on the ground as well – it’s not only a great anti-air, but stops many of Sheik’s fastfall Nair/dashgrab mixups.
To summarize: D3’s jumps get him out of combos and safely to ground, his heaviness exacerbates Sheik’s primary weakness, and Gordo hampers much of Sheik’s offense. Her speed and offensively safety still power through, but then it comes down to a risk-reward tradeoff. As D3’s % (and rage) rises, we continue to get deadlier and harder to combo, while Sheik has to continue to play perfectly against a wall of ever-changing disjointed hitboxes.
The hammer/Ftilt forces her to play honest, Gordo forces her to play smart, and D3’s kill power forces her to play scared.
I like.
