Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Strider_Bond00J]

One of the few rules of this game is that nominated characters must appear on a Nintendo console. I'm not finding anything that shows this character or series ever has. If the nominators can show otherwise, it's allowed. Otherwise, I don't see a problem in giving some one-time bonus nominations to @ Strider_Bond00J to make up for the confusion.

Understood. But just for a bit of clarification - Reimu has 10 votes overall, are you suggesting to move these votes to other suggestions or redo the nomination I gave yesterday?

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Impa:
Chance: 30%
I want to say right now, I never understood the complaints about Zelda characters in Smash 4. So what it didn't get a newcomer? The main trio is still there, and a clone that represents a different art style of zelda as well as the different incarnation of Link. It also doesn't help that other requested Zelda characters were for the most part, one-off characters. Impa on the other hand, isn't.

I'd say Impa is one of the next choices for a Zelda rep if it happens. She's like the wise character that's watched over Link and Zelda in most games. There does come a problem though: With her many incarnations, she may not have a set moveset to give her that isn't just a semi-clone of Shiek.

"But Impa in Hyrule Warriors!" That is true, I'll give people that. There does come the problem of why she might not get a Hyrule Warriors moveset however, and it has to do with the incarnations of Zelda characters. There's a possible reason Skyward Sword Link and Zelda weren't made the default designs. It has to do with the fact that Ganondorf wasn't in Skyward Sword: Demise was. And it would be akward to have Skyward Link and Zelda with Twilight Princess Ganon being there. One argument I could see someone bringing up is Shiek, since she wasn't in Twilight Princess, yet has a deign that fits it. If I remember correctly, she was actually planned to be in that game, so they actually did hav a design to base her on.

So if they were to give Impa her Hyrule Warriors moveset, she would be given the Hyrule Warriors design. But it would clash with Link, Zelda, Ganon, and Shiek sadly. Really though, i'm not sure what deign she would get in the first place. She's had many incarnations that im not sure what they would base it off of (most presumably OOT because of that being a recent game.) Who knows though, that may not get in the way.

If she doesn't have a Hyrule Warriors moveset, I'd think she would be a semi-clone Shiek. Similar moves (possibly getting Shiek's old side-B.) and different animations. Other than that, i'm not sure. This has gone on fairly long, so let me wrap it up quickly: She's the most likely Zelda character to come next but also a character I'd doubt they would do.

Want: 40%
She's pretty cool in her designs, and she may inherit a good moveset as well. However, she's pretty low on my requested characters.

 

[jahkzheng]

Just a friendly reminder that if you edit your nominations after the fact (if I've liked your post, I've already counted them), to just let me know, either by tagging me or PMing. Thanks everyone! and if I ever don't like a post that had nominations in it, let me know, and I'll make sure they are retroactively counted in the next update. I read every single post but I'm human and could definitely miss counting something once in awhile.


Edit: also, Wolf and Inklings are tied, so Day 10 is still anyone's battle!

I've done that a couple times but I think I've managed to sneak in my change before I get a like. I've started to actually keep track of how I've voted everyone so that I know better the landscape of my voting habits. I don't want to accidentally vote a character higher than another I actually want a little more. All my changes have been within 5% one way or the other though.

IMPA
Chance: 20%
I suspect that Impa's only showed up in Skyward Sword and Hyrule Warriors - arguably her best incarnation. But then again, Sheik is also a Sheikah, dampening this magical bodyguard's chances quite a bit.
Want: 75%
Want's a lot nicer than chance. Because potentially new Zelda rep (From a gameplay standpoint).

SHANTAE PREDICTIONS
Chance: 6.9%; Want: 100%
Yeah, she's more a pipe dream, but even better than Shovel Knight. A LOT better.

NOMINATIONS
Misty x3 (Wheeeeeee, Gym Leaders! And my fave, even!)
Inkling x1 (wam wawawaaaaaaam, that theme~ also cool moveset potential)
Tails x1 (Heeey, Ryu's in the game, so...)

Impa chance: 30%
Hyrule Warriors may have boosted her popularity a little, but I don't think it's enough to warrant her a spot on the roster.

Want: 10%
I'd prefer a different Zelda newcomer, and I don't care for Impa... at all.

Shantae chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Nominations:
Anthony Higgs x2
9-Volt x2
Endou Mamoru x1

You guys do know that when you "predict" tomorrow's character, you're predicting the average "chance" and/or "want" percentage they'll get after all votes are tallied, right? It's almost impossible that Shantae will get a 100% or a 0%. That would require everyone to either vote 100% or 0%.

 

[Aetheri]

Impa:
I want to say right now, I never understood the complaints about Zelda characters in Smash 4. So what it didn't get a newcomer? The main trio is still there, and a clone that represents a different art style of zelda as well as the different incarnation of Link. It also doesn't help that other requested Zelda characters were for the most part, one-off characters. Impa on the other hand, isn't.

It's the top three of the franchise, including both Mario (2 newcomers) and pokemon (1 newcomer), and with the likes of rising franchises such as Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem (both receiving 2 newcomers) then seeing franchises such as Zelda, DK, and Metroid left behind when they are pretty much already established (especially Zelda), with fairly popular and obvious candidates for smash but yet still get nothing in terms of new playable fighters (but sure we'll take Dark Pit for seemingly no reason Sakurai)...Some would argue the same for Kirby and in the case of Star Fox (who really got shafted) losing a character instead of getting a newcomer...
Sure the top three are represented in Zelda, while the top 4 (if you're not counting DK and Yoshi) in Mario are also represented... then you could argue that there's no need for Rosalina and Bowser Jr...Zelda doesn't have the advantage of having multiple spinoffs such as Mario Kart and Mario Party so they don't get their popular characters featured as much due to the Zelda timeline...
I'm not hating on Rosalina or Bowser Jr. both are pretty cool characters and well deserved in Smash but it's the notion of what appears to be 'Sakurai bias' that upsets most people...I know it's his game but when fans come together asking for characters they want to see Sakurai decides to take the best possible choices and give them a minor role within the game where we hardly ever see them...
I was pretty upset when both Midna and Dark Samus were announced as Assist Trophies...as someone who doesn't play with items very often it doesn't really satisfy me that they are 'in the game'...

 

[ES. Dinah]

Impa

Chance: 30%. I'm not a big fan of her but her new Hyrule Warriors appearance has a lot going for it moveset wise. She seems like the perfect fit for a new Zelda rep but PERSONALLY I would rather have Ghirahim or Toon Zelda. I feel like Ghirahim dominates her chances even if he is now an AT.

Want: 10%. Impa is a great character but not one that I would go crazy for. I have other choices that I hold higher.

Shantae: She has a fanbase but I'm going to give her 20% and if not it would have been much less without Wayforward.

I nominate KOS-MOS X5 again! She is seriously a good choice for smash.

 

[Erimir]

Ok... I'll participate again.

First off... I'm going to be Debbie Downer again, and say that ratings need to be lower, across the board except for the characters for which there is strong evidence (i.e. Roy and Ryu).

There are perhaps 2-5 open slots from what I can see (2 in the case that Lucas, Roy and Ryu account for three of them) so I will again be Debbie Downer, rating almost every character lower than the average rater. 5 slots for characters that aren't Lucas/Roy/Ryu seems optimistic to me, so I'm rating under the assumption that 3 beyond them is maybe the average outcome. That's 300% to dole out to characters. Each percent you dole out should reduce the chances for everyone else accordingly because space is limited and results are NOT independent. In certain cases, I'd say there's an even stronger relation - Dixie and K Rool's chances are very strongly linked, since the chance of both of them appearing is far, far, far smaller (<1%) than either's chance of appearing alone. Other characters may be competing in the same space for other reasons as well (such as both being sword users, etc.).

Impa

Impa has a few problems. She's inherently similar to Sheik - she's an Sheikah warrior, Sheik is Zelda disguised as a Sheikah warrior. They can make her different, of course, but she's not that different in build (unless they use fat Impa...). A fruitful direction for her could be to be the Ganondorf to Sheik's Captain Falcon - OoT Impa is a bit more solid build than Sheik, for example. SS Impa is less so - being taller and even thinner. But making her the slower, more powerful Sheikah warrior is an option along with little differences here and there. I feel like if Impa was in, they'd go for something like the Hyrule Warriors design - an updated OoT design, maybe with some TP and SS influence. Even if it wasn't SS Impa, an SS-inspired palette would be extremely likely.

Obviously Lucas is coming back, Wolf has a very good chance, and Roy might already be in development. So being similar (Wolf, Lucas) to very clone-ish (Roy) is not an insurmountable hurdle. But for newcomers, I feel like they'd prefer more unique characters. Zelda is also not sorely lacking representation, although it could easily justify having a 6th rep. Impa would also broaden the representation for Zelda out of the three Triforce holders. On the other hand, Beast Ganon would lend a pleasing symmetry to the Zelda cast (two versions of Link, two versions of Zelda, two versions of Ganondorf)...

Biggest problem? I don't think she's getting enough votes. If they take votes and don't go with some of the most popular characters (and yes, Impa does alright, but she's not in the top tier by any means) and pass over them for non-veteran semi-clones? I mean, it's not out of the question, but it would feel like they looked at the polls... and picked the laziest semi-popular option. If they're out of the top tier, I feel that more unique characters or characters from under/unrepresented franchises have the edge.

On the whole, I'd say Impa has a decent chance, possibly even the best chance of any Zelda character. Her competition is the less popular/relevant Vaati, the very clone-y Toon Zelda (perhaps less popular, but she was popular in Japan if I recall), third version of Zelda Tetra, less popular Beast Ganon (little optimism for this given Ganondorf's overall treatment in Smash) and Tingle who was driven out of the franchise by American hate. Groose might have some support, but I doubt he would be picked since he's not as important within the story. Ghirahim would be ranked higher than her, I think, if he weren't already an AT. I don't really know if ATs have any chance for Smash 4 (Smash 5 on the other hand...).

But unfortunately, a decent chance doesn't translate to much in my reckoning. Decent compared to most characters, which I would rate below 1%.

Impa chances: 3%
Chance has to have a strong correlation with votes, and the evidence I've seen is that Impa is not top 10, or even top 20. Zelda reps don't seem to be at the top of the list.
Impa want: 60%
She'd be cool enough, but she's not my top choice by any means.

Shantae prediction: 7%
She's got ok popularity, but 3rd parties need to be pretty iconic...

 

[Old School Tommy]

I couldn't care less if you thought it was "asinine".

Then why bother responding?

You don't like that, that's your problem.

Problem? Nah. I'm not the one who blames / holding a grudge over a fictional character for the "downfall" of the series just because Adventures didn't turn out to be another rail shooter. Since when did fictional characters become game developers? Adventures happened because of Miyamoto.

Anyway.

Impa:

Chance: 20%
Want: 60%

Shantae Prediction: 5%

 

[Deleted member]

Pretty late to the party, but ill add my 2 cents to the poll (if its not added to the days that's fine)

-King K. Rool- chance 75%; want 20% (while i don't get the sudden rise of K rool, he may be a fine villain to the roster.. however i don't see a lot of potential for him besides the possibility of a range heavy weight... that and i kind-of don't want another heavyweight

-Banjo & Kazoiee- chance 20%;want 20% (though i like rare Nintendo won't give Microsoft a head up for e3, sad i like the duo alto)

-Issac-chance 60%; want 75%( the only assist trophy that deserves to be playable that got cut is Issac (even though i like all assist trophies... even starfy) has a grand move set to pull from... just take some inspiration from ssf2.)

-Bandanna Dee-chance 50%; want 100%( though many argue over him, its clear to people that he has a rise of popularity and that Kirby as a series want to incorporate him more, while people say his generic.... yea his basically the waddle Dee strongest rep or is the waddle dee, if you put a picture of Kirby and bandanna Dee/or waddle Dee together, people may say their cousins. Plus spear characters are needed...like a lot and his number one) Also did none noticed that there were Kirby tracks in the Ryu and Roy data... strange coincidence... but that's for later

-Captain Toad- chance 10%; want 20%( don't see him likely at all... mostly for move-set reason... he could be cool but least likely in this post list... also an unnamed person who has a video on YouTube said he be likely than bandanna dee, makes me mad but im cool)

-Krystal-chance 30%; want 65% ( more staff users, more females, more non human, more telepaths, and a star fox rep that's not a clone, what more can you want) (and no not for the furry reason can explain why their hated on the web?)

-Dixie Kong- chance 30%; want 40%( more of a clone for diddy, if they tag team her and cranky that will be something)

Now for impa

Chance 40%- (while we need more zelda reps... i din''t feel that shes the one, since hyrule warriors they might want to do Lana instead of another sword fighter... shes cool though and i feel zelda dose need more rep)

Want-60%( like i said Hyrule warriors might either harm or hurt her...but i won't mind either way)

Prediction -Shantae: 30%-60% (Indie need to be rep. in smash so why not the one who been with Nintendo the longest)

NOMNOMNOM-
since inklings going up after shantae
Ice climbers x3
Lana (Hyrule warriors) x2


again sorry i am late

 

[Rockaphin]

Impa:
Chance: 45%
I don't think she's very likely, but out of the Zelda contenders, I think she has one of the highest chances.

Want: 70%
I think she'd be cool and honestly wanted her over Sheik(Not like she'd replace her or anything.) I'd prefer her Hyrule Warriors costume.

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Impa
Chance: 10% - Unfortunately, I'm having a hard time seeing Impa playable. Sakurai has never seemed open to making Zelda newcomers who aren't in the Triforce trio, and it doesn't help that she's only had supporting roles in the series, although her role in SS was a step in the right direction for her. I don't know how well she's doing on the ballot but I've only ever seen her do well on polls that let voters vote for multiple characters like Smashboards and Rankers, she's done abysmally on the Japan DLC and Reddit polls.
Want: 50 - Not one of my most wanted characters, but I'd be pleasantly surprised to see a Zelda newcomer.

Shantae prediction: 6%

Nominations: Henry Fleming x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

IMPA
CHANCE: 25.79%
WANT: 45.05%​

Impa managed to do moderately well, not much to say. Next up we're rating Shantae, fourth female character in a row. Will being an indie character help her or hurt her? Only time will tell. Also please predict what score the Inklings will get tomorrow.

 

[Braydon]

Shantae:
Chance: 0.01%
She's not from a major gaming series and not nintendo

want: 0%
Lol do not want.


Prediction inkling:
Chance: 62%

Nominations: 5x monster hunter.

 

[Warlock*G]

Shantae

Chance: 15%. She has gathered a sizeable fanbase in recent years, and she might as well be a Nintendo character -- you can get all 3 of her games on one 3DS! I invite everybody to click on my sig to learn more about her.

Want: 100%. She would fit so well in Smash, it's ridiculous. I want Shantae to be in Smash as much as I want Falcon to stay in Smash, and I've been running Falcon since 1999.

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Seeing as I am one of the bigger shantae supporters might as well as try and do her justice
Shantae change 15%
Unfortunately for me her changes are low.Being an indie character, a western character and being nowhere near the level of the other 3rd parties hurts her.... Alot.And despite wayforward and Nintendo relationship I don't think that's a enough

Shantae want 99%
Shantae Is my number 1 most wanted character. She could have a very unique and interesting moveset despite only having 3 games(so far) she's my favorite female game character not belonging to Nintendo.And I think her apperance just fits the look of smash.The main reason I want shantae in is because of exposure. Look what smash did to fire emblem and pikmin.I want that for shantae her series is a real gem and if she gets in smash maybe it would cause people to look her up


Inkling prediction 65%

Slippy x5

 

[SegaNintendoUbisoft]

Shantae:
Chance: 15%
Being an indie character does hurt her quite a bit, though she does get some points for being pretty popular for an indie character. It also helps that WayForward has a good relationship with Nintendo.

Want: 95%
As of now, I am currently playing the first game, and I'm really enjoying it. Shantae herself is very fun character filled with a lot of personality (plus she's cute). I would not mind her in Smash at all, in fact, I'm for it. Though one other third party takes priority over her in my eyes.

Inkling:
Chance: 72.5%

Nominations:
Rayman x5 EDIT: Changed my chance rating, felt a bit too high to be honest, I still stand by my want rating.

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae
Chance 40%-
pros:
-Provides cool/original move set
-More female representation( and first female 3rd party)
-Opportunity to bring american indie culture to worldwide eyes
-Indie rep for playable and shows nintendo loyalty to indies
- original personality/ background
Con:
-Attire?
-Not well known out of united states

Want 80%
Shantae provides a moveset that is unlike anyone in the game. She also provides some good loyalty to indie developers, as she is the one who has been with nintendo(90%...half geine) for a long period... and still is.Im amazed by how the fans in this theread only give her below a 20.
Plus there is an argument that indie won't be considered...Well thats not true as the poll says that ANY VIDEO GAME CHARACTER will be considered so she might be considered by sakurai. In fact in pretty sure sakurai is looking at the pools to see who viable and reviewing their games and not just going by whose popular gets priority.... it was never stated this to be a popularity contest.And if/once he get to shantae he'll examine her game even though its in japanese (like how american plays some Japanese games/ anime with no dubs but get an idea of whats happening). She also has a following in america which, if she is in smash, may lead her to be a global success, which is beneficial for wayforward and Nintendo. She also doesn't need to be popular to win the vote either as many characters were pretty unpopular that got into the game( fire emblem, rob, and Lucas upon announcement)

In the end, she has a chance to be in the game just as likely as anybody( k rool, shovel knight, ect) If Nintendo dose consider bringing in indie it might be shantae as she has a history with Nintendo unlike shovel knight, who is a fine addition too.What i am saying is that don't judge a character due to popularity but more so their quality. Anybody can be playable if you believe and put effort into it.

I dont mean to offend anyone i just had to get that out of the way as some characters (Bandanna dee, lana, and mass of others) were being ridicule due to this.
But this isn't the thread to talk about it
Inkling: 75%- WHY ARENT THEY IN SMASH YET...in all seriousness E3 reveal.

NOMNOMNOM:
Lana x5

 

[Delzethin]

Ok... I'll participate again.

First off... I'm going to be Debbie Downer again, and say that ratings need to be lower, across the board except for the characters for which there is strong evidence (i.e. Roy and Ryu).

There are perhaps 2-5 open slots from what I can see (2 in the case that Lucas, Roy and Ryu account for three of them) so I will again be Debbie Downer, rating almost every character lower than the average rater. 5 slots for characters that aren't Lucas/Roy/Ryu seems optimistic to me, so I'm rating under the assumption that 3 beyond them is maybe the average outcome. That's 300% to dole out to characters. Each percent you dole out should reduce the chances for everyone else accordingly because space is limited and results are NOT independent. In certain cases, I'd say there's an even stronger relation - Dixie and K Rool's chances are very strongly linked, since the chance of both of them appearing is far, far, far smaller (<1%) than either's chance of appearing alone. Other characters may be competing in the same space for other reasons as well (such as both being sword users, etc.).

So you're saying those five empty spots are for sure the only room there'll be for DLC characters? Doesn't that seem like a bit of an assumption at this point? Those are just for the time being to give them room to work with; all they'd need to do is add more in a future patch.

I'll have the character analysis up in a little while. Got a few things to take care of first...

 

[BigShad]

Shantae's Chances: around 50% if not more
Being an indie character kinda hurts her chances, but a huge majority of her games have been loyal to Nintendo dating back from the GBC. I feel as though her obscurity doesn't really affect her chances much, as we've seen Ice Climbers, Shulk, etc in there. And her clothing doesn't affect it either, since we see that ZSS has an alt showing some skin

Want: 100%. Her games are damn fun platforming and there's a whole lot of stuff to draw from. Belly dance transformations, various magic tools, some of the more physical kicking tools from her games, her pirate gear, and let's not forget the trademark har-whip all allow for a potentially unique character with good range and melee moves.

Nominating Quote(with Curly alt) from Cave Story, if it's not already done.

 

[Chandeelure]

Wow, Shantae is seriously overrated.

-Shantae:
Chances: 3%
Want: 0%

-Nominations:
Magolor X4
Shovel Knight X1

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

King K. Rool: Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shantae Chance: 5%

I'd rank her even lower, but with all of the things that Sakurai has gone back on, and how DLC possibly changes the rules, we don't know if his views on third party characters will change as well.

BUT AS OF NOW! Sakurai has stated that a 3rd Party character has to be a "big deal" in order for them to be included, and based on the fact that we're most likely getting the face of fighting games as a DLC character, it doesn't seem like that view has changed. Compared to the other 3rd party characters in the game, or even other possible third party DLC characters, Shantae seems woefully inadequate.

But then again, Shantae is an Indie character, which I'd argue is a bit of a different scenario then a regular third party character. Where you've got Sonic and Sega, which probably required a ton of negotiations to happen, I wouldn't be surprised if WayForward just paid Nintendo to do whatever they wanted with Shantae, if only to get her into the game.

But THEN the question is if they'd pick Shantae as an Indie character? She has a lot of competition on that front, Shovel Knight's got a huge following, Commander Video's already a trophy in the game, and Quote has a fan base worldwide. And based on how Shantae's upcoming game isn't Nintendo exclusive, I don't know if she'd be given priority.

Shantae Want: 15%

Never played her games, have no desire to do so, not the biggest fan of her design, and I'd prefer Quote.

Inkling Predictions: 63%

Makes sense from a business standpoint, just a matter of if Sakurai agrees.

Noms:
x4 Rayman
x1 Quote

Then why bother responding?

Because while I couldn't care less about the actual opinion, I (shockingly, I know) don't enjoy being insulted.

 

[Damenshi]

Shantae

Chance: around 20-25%
I really wish I could put this number higher, but there is a decent drawback considering the fair obscurity Shantae suffers, as well as being an indie character. However, with this in mind, she has regardless developed an extremely loyal following of those that know her. Shantae's history is by and large with Nintendo as well, and a spot in Smash would provide even further profit for both Wayforward and Nintendo in the long run.

With a truly unique move-set and a wealth of potential and possibility under her belt, Shantae's inclusion in Smash feels more real by the day; and if nothing else, Wayforward seems more than willing to see this through. This - in conjunction with the beautiful amount of support from her fans and Nintendo's word that characters of all kinds are eligible - in my opinion helps her chances significantly. The cons are weighty, but the souls of we the fans burn with an everlasting inferno of support.

Want: 100%
Easily the most wanted character by my standards as well as many others. Hailing from one of the most charming series of games I have ever had the honor to experience in my 16-year gaming history, I have no doubts in my mind that Shantae is more than deserving of a place in Smash's roster.

Inkling- 65%
(Though, I honestly wouldn't care for their inclusion very much.
Apologies to the fans, but I cannot deny my feelings.)

 

[Hippopotasauce]

No Japan release really kills Shantae's likelihood for me.

Shantae Likelihood: 1%
Want: 70%

Inkling: 51%

6+ DLC characters x5

 

[Troykv]

Shantae

Chance 15%

Her biggest problem is she doesn't well known outside their country of origin. She still has potential things in my opinion.

Want: 70%

Looks very interesting and fun to use in my opinion.

Predictions:

Inkling: 55%

Nomintations:

Micaiah x2
Tiki x 2
Kos-mos x1

(Yeah! Again!)

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shantae.

Chances - 2%

Shantae's origins aren't that of a typical indie character, with her debut game being a physical Game Boy Color released, published by Capcom's help (though indie studio WayForward was the creator). That said, she resonates as, and essentially is, a true indie character. I won't go on about her uniqueness in ways others can better. I'll just say getting in any indie rep is a dark horse, wild card possibility. I won't say it's impossible to get one, and it certainly represents Nintendo's modern history and healthy relationship with them very well, but NoJ and Sakurai have the final say in this. While they are open to representing indies with a trophy, would they go so far to do so with a playable character? Not only that, she has way too much competition from third parties with lots of money and with characters who have been around since the 80's and 90's to be likely. IF we get an indie character, she has very little competition. Only her, Quote, and Shovel Knight really have any place in the discussion, and I can see where and why she would come out on top.

Want - 15%
Not with the limited DLC slots we will have. I'd support an indie rep of some sort in Smash 5, however. I like her games A LOT, but she isn't all-star enough for me to get excited. I would certainly purchase her, however.

Paper Mario x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Shantae

Chance: 1%

So, to avoid retyping everything, let me edit my response to Banjo/Kazooie. Really, just replace 'they' with 'her' and 'Xbox' with 'WayForward'

Third party characters by nature make things complicated. Doubly so here, since there's a lot special about this. I'll start by acknowledging that they've got a decent amount of support in the US polls, and have a great nostalgia factor. And that's it. The head of XBox liking the idea of them in smash is of no consequence. What is he supposed to say? "Ew, I really don't want another company to pay me to put my character into a game and give me loads of free publicity..." Besides, look at all the publicity he got just from saying he likes the idea.
Now, and this is true for all third party proposals, it comes down to the dollar signs. Is Nintendo, a company whose last console didn't quite do as well as hoped, going to be willing to pay another company, specifically a rival, sums of money to make their character as a guest DLC? Seems like a major loss for Nintendo, and a major gain for the third party, and that is never going to happen. Now, if the third party tried to pull off the same trick that Sony/Marvel Studios is doing with Spidey, that could get somewhere. Basically, the only way I see any third party getting in is if the other studio gives Nintendo the rights for the low price of $0 - including the DLC, and the amiibo stuff (maybe if they got a small cut of the amiibo sales) - in exchange for free publicity. Let's face it, Smash sells things, and you need look no further than Marth in Melee for that.
So the question is, would Microsoft be willing to lend Banjo out to their direct competitor for only publicity and possibly a cut of amiibo take-ins? I guess if the head of XBox likes the idea, that's a good sign, but we still haven't seen any financial talk, which has a tendency to sour dreams like this.

So I think it's never a good sign when I have to go read up on a character since I know nothing about them. A character who is being billed as a Nintendo All-Star should already be known. I should not have to look them up. I never needed to read up on Villager, Rosalina, or Kirby, despite never having played any of those games. Even the current third-parties are video game all-stars - I've never played Mega Man, but I was really happy to see him included since I know of that game. Most of the Smash cast is already known worldwide, and those who aren't stick out oddly. She isn't. And unlike characters like Marth at the time of Melee, Nintendo is a Japanese company - characters with huge Japanese and no American fanbases have so much more of a chance than the opposite (which may explain why the few Sm4sh character who aren't all-stars did get in). I doubt any characters unknown in Japan will get a chance. If Sakurai doesn't recognize the character, will he throw it in? Especially if it means cutting other characters he DOES recognize?
Let's also point out the fact that her first game was published by Capcom, and we've got a Capcom character in. And also another one is highly expected. And that game was released for GBC at the time GBA was released, so it was on a dying console. Her latest is being funded by Kickstarter, and is going to all company consoles. She hasn't even had a 3D appearance yet, and let's face it - sprite art is nice and retro if you're into that. But it's not the 90s anymore; most companies have moved on to actual graphics. Altogether, not a lot of good points there.
In terms of the look, she fits the whole 'kawaii' theme so that's ok. The outfit may be a bit of an issue, but then again the Gerudo Pirates in Ocarina of Time wore the same thing. And that's all I can say.
I think that she's definitely being overrated here. That's one of the problems of the internet (well, all over really) - a vocal minority usually trumps a silent majority. Here, it may seem like everyone is a supporter, but is that truly the case? Particularly at Nintendo HQ where it matters?
It all comes down to Nintendo and finances. Will Nintendo be willing to take a chance on a US Indie character? The negotiations will probably be easy, but will WayForward be able to handle it. Nintendo probably will not want to pay to advertise someone else, so will they be able to foot the bill, especially if they're making the game through Kickstarter?
​

Want: 0%

Again, from before...

Honestly, I don't like guest characters in anything. Smash, with it's all-star matchup makes it a little more palatable, but still... I feel that the only guests we should have should represent gaming history, and I don't know if Banjo Shantae is that big of a character to have made a huge splash on the industry. There are just so many more characters I'd rather have in the admittedly limited slots.

And my reasons from the above. Sorry.
​

Predictions: Inklings

Chance: 87.5%, Want: 87.5%
​

Nominations:

As I'm on a roll of quoting from before...

Concept - NPC Promotions x5

 

[Pacack]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

This is meant to give perspective on my ratings. They tend to be a lot lower than most here.

King K. Rool: 33.34%
Captain Toad: 30%
Isaac: 27.5%
Dixie Kong: 17.5%
Impa: 10.75%
*Bandanna Dee: 10.5%
Krystal: 7.5%
Banjo-Kazooie: 2%

*Was not here on rating day.

Shantae:

Chance: 1.15%

Shantae is the main character of the series known by the same name, which was developed by WayForward Technologies and published by Capcom, debuting on the Game Boy Color (later brought to the Game Boy Advance) in 2002. The game has a Metroidvania style approach to platforming, meaning that it introduces areas in-game which cannot be accessed until later items or powers are collected. While it didn't sell fantastically at first, since it came at the end of the GBC's life cycle, it quickly became a cult classic among critics and gamers.

Shantae's games have been released consistently, though not exclusively, on Nintendo consoles. In recent years, though, her games have been released on the Eshop rather than on physical cartridges, making her something of an indie character in the eyes of most.

Shantae is a half-genie from Sequin Land whose main weapon is her hair, along with some magic spells and items. She also uses a variety of other weapons, including a scimitar that's important enough to be included in her primary artwork for Shantae and the Pirate's Curse, a Flintlock Pistol (also in the artwork), a large Pirate Hat that she uses to float over obstacles, and a Cannon which she uses while floating. Her magic abilities includes bellydancing, which allows her to transform into many different forms, including a monkey, an elephant, a spider, a harpy, a mermaid, and a tinkerbat. (Note: I didn't find much on the magic spells and items, but she can use fire, apparently from her mother's fire genie heritage.)

Shantae's fairly popular, but is owned by a third party company. She was thrown into the spotlight as of late because WayForward has been incredibly supportive on getting Shantae into the game. On their twitter page, they've been retweeting any and all artwork sent their way supporting the idea (including the above image of Shantae on Battlefield), and have asked their fans to send a vote for her Sakurai's way.

While I do think that the company's fervor for getting Shantae in is admirable, Shantae is held back badly due to her third-party status. Sakurai's gone on record in saying that third parties have to be a "special case" to be considered for Smash Bros. inclusion. Along with that, Shantae's only Japanese release was an untranslated English release of Shantae: Risky's Revenge. Unfortunately, I just don't see Shantae happening because of those reasons. She has a chance because of her popularity and company support, but the third-party hurdle is one that very few characters have been able to surpass, and I don't think any amount of magic will be enough to make Shantae an exception.


Want: 66%

Sure! I have no connection to the series whatsoever, but she seems to have a lot of potential. I think she'd fit right in with the rest of the Smash Bros cast. Plus, I like her design, and what background I've found of her during my limited research is rather interesting. I'm definitely thinking about getting one of her games and trying it out.


Inklings Prediction: 29.98%

Nominations: Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume x5

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Shantae:

Chances: 40%
Shantae chances are low because she's a indie character, but is a very popular vote so far in the ballot so there's that and she has history with Nintendo going back to the Game Boy Color in 2002.

Want: 100%
Shantae is my most wanted character in the ballot. I actually own her original Game Boy Color game so ever since I first started playing her games I just fell in love with her character. Her games were both fun and have a lot of replayability. I was quite impress seeing that people over the web have been putting her in there top 5 votes which makes me very happy and even though her games haven't been release in Japan. I was a little shocked that there are a few fans in Japan that both want her games localized there & actually saw a few of them voted for her so its good to know that there is some knowledge of her games in Japan. Also recently found out that the Pokemon art director is a Shantae fan which is awesome in my book. I can see Shantae being a unique smash fighter with her ability to whip her hair for attacks, transform into different animals to aid her, use different kinds of magic, and use some of her pirate gear from her recent game "Shantae & the Pirate's Curse". So with that I hope Sakurai sees the popular demand for these indie characters (Shantae, Shovel Knight, & Quote) and hopefully choices one to represent the indie community.

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Edit: sorry double post

 

[FancySmash]

Shantae
Chance: 40% - I believe that if enough support is shown for a character, they can have a pretty good chance of making the cut. Of course, there is still the questionable status of Shantae, whether she is considered indie or not. Also being 3rd party doesn't help, but I wouldn't think that would hurt her too much, as they have said before that they are OK with 3rd party.
Want: 50% - Never played any of her games, so I don't know her capabilities, or her character at all. I know she has fans, so I've left it at an even 50% to not take any sides.

Inklings prediction: 50% - I know they are a really popular choice, but I don't really understand why. They're game (let alone series) hasn't even come out yet, so putting them in Smash seems a bit early. I'd assume that they'd wait until the next Smash Bros., or at the very least, make them DLC some time in the future after Splatoon releases.

I have to assume all these chances/wants are disregarding the "only five slots" rumor. The rumor doesn't seem to make that much sense actually, why would they limit their DLC sales to just 5 (6 counting Mewtwo) characters? That sounds like a wasted business potential.

Nominations:
Ice Climbers X5

 

[Rockaphin]

Shantae:

Chances: 10%
Could be neat, but I simply do not think she's very likely.

Want: 15%
I haven't played her game, but it does look interesting enough.

Nominations:
Paper Mario x3
Medusa x2

 

[IvanQuote]

Shantae:

Chance: 25%

She has a lot of supporters in the west and she's been around since the Gameboy, so I'd say she is the most likely indie character. Suffers heavy competition from Dixie tho.

Want: 50%

Indifferent. By now you should know which indie character I want.

Inkling Predict:
Chance: 46%

Want: 67%

Nom: Quote x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Shantae
Chance - 10%
Not good by any means, but I think the chance is there. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo wants an indie game character in ("Check out these and other indie games on the Wii U eShop!"). Having no Japanese release certainly hurts, but she's always been on Nintendo consoles, and we have had Japanese-only characters in. Who's to say Sakurai won't think it fair to turn it the other way?

Want - 30%
Eh...I've played the first two games. They were fun, and Shantae is cool. Aesthetically, she'll work in Smash. And I personally love more female characters (not for "muh roster needs more gurlz" but because I just naturally like using female characters). But I dunno. I feel like there are a lot of other characters who deserve to be in before her. I don't feel like her day has come yet. I would not complain if she did make it, though, and I would definitely buy her.

Nominate Anna x5.

 

[Aetheri]

Now for the Indie discussion...it's pretty neat that it isn't necessarily just the characters we're discussing but variable ideas such as relevance vs. popularity, over/underrepresentation, furries, not being able to jump, etc...

Shantae
Chance: 8%
Some peeps are bit generous I find...she's does however have a few things going for her; one, she probably has one of best possibilities for a workable moveset in Smash (better than most Nintendo characters I find) ! Seriously, riding a cannon for a recovery, swords, pirate guns, fireballs, smacking things with her hair, and shape shifting into several animals...
Her games have been for the most part Nintendo exclusives so there's no doubt the folks at Nintendo know who she is at the very least. And having the Metroidvania style gaming which is comparable to several Nintendo games such as DKC, Metroid, and Zelda. She's got a style that definitely fits in Smash. I know her attire may seem like an issue with Tharja's trophy being removed from the game and all, but Tharja's design has a slightly more 'cheeky' look to it (also consider Shantae's games are rated E, Fire Emblem is T rated)(and ZSS and Shulk alts, less naw 4get)
She's got a really likable personality (her cute looks help as well) that may very well be appealing to japanese audiences, that may indeed give her the boost that she needs.
On top of everything Wayforward is on board and for any third party character that is pretty big!
On the downside....here we go....She's not an official Nintendo character, not really a big deal when you consider Sonic, Snake, Pacman, and Megaman, but compared to them she doesn't really have the same impact on the gaming world...To top it off she's developed by American developers, I feel like this may be a big hindrance as Sakurai seems to lean towards characters and franchises that are more popular in Japan than Internationally (hence the inclusion of Fire Emblem characters in melee and Lucas) and those series who are more popular internationally tend to get left in the wayside (Metroid is a 'prime' example)...It really comes down to whether or not Sakurai recognizes the appeal and possible benefits in adding Shantae and whether or not it will be worth it in the end, but her popularity is definitely enough for her to get noticed I feel...
The game does need some international representation...but does Sakurai agree? She's got some points going for her for sure, more than the points against her but I feel those points against her are BIG POINTS and may indeed hurt her chances in the long run (and given Sakurai's track record) I'm not entirely optimistic....

Want: 100%
Me a few weeks ago: '. . .who?'
Me now: 'OMGWTFBBQ! She needs to be in Smash RIGHT NOW!!!!'
...ahem...srry...
One thing is for sure I think she definitely gets a lot of attention just from all the Ballot hype...I mean I noticed her! (not that I'm anybody important or anything but, point still stands) I may pick up one of her games if I get the opportunity (I mean a Metroid and Zelda inspired game, yes plz!!!)...Also her moveset potential is ridiculous...I have a hard time thinking of the best moveset for her as she's got so much versatility...She's a character that can definitely benefit with the increased exposure from Smash as other games seem to surge in popularity as seen in Earthbound and Fire Emblem...Her quirkiness and charming personality without a doubt will get the attention of a Japanese audience...I find her being unlikely with the whole US Indie character not a world renown icon thing going, but I'd definitely like to see it happen...

Prediction: 75%
Inklings
With the brand spanking new game coming out, it is a bit of a surprise that they aren't in already as Smash seems to be an ideal advertisement for new games, both Roy and Lucas were added before the release of their games respectively for the same reason...although their franchises weren't new at the time, Inklings are completely fresh...either way they are one of the characters that are showing up VERY frequently often in top 5 of various polls, so I predict a lot of high ratings (but I don't want to go too high)

Nominations:
Wolf x2
Wolf Link & Midna x2
Dark Samus x1 (since apparently we can vote NPC's now)

 

[DNeon]

Shantae

Chances: 10%

I honestly feel that Shantae has a possibility especially with the Smash Ballot, and some agreement between Wayforward and Nintendo about a promotion to release in Japan, but that's in an ideal world where that kind of deal could be easily communicated and settled upon. I just don't think she's particularly likely, but the chance is definitely there.

Want: 80%

She's awesome, would be a great choice to recognise the loyalty the brand has, and the added promotional opportunities would be exciting, seeing so many discover and enjoy her character and games.

Wolf

Prediction: 79%

I'm pretty sure he's basically a shoe in, and I'm pretty sure most people agree with that.

Whoops, missed the whole next in line thing.

Inkling

Prediction: 58%

Unlike others I'm not sure that Nintendo will look to tie in a promotional aspect with the release or anything, but after the games come out it's likely to happen sometime.

Vote 5x Advance Wars character

 

[Nimbostratus]

Shantae
Chance- 7%
Only giving her this much as WayForward seems actively interested in getting her in. At the end of the day, though, she's a non-iconic third party. Seems to have popularity around these parts, but I'm not sure if it is widespread enough. Might give her a little more if the upcoming game was on a Nintendo console only, as she'd almost feel like second party. Alas.
Want- 15%
It's interesting to see what fan bases really show up in crowd for their day, ehh?
Sorry to say I'm not too keen on the idea myself. Not to be "that guy," but I'm not that interested in more third parties (with the exception of Banjo). I'll give her a little, though, since she at least has history with Nintendo and could be an interesting character to play as. If the IP was owned by Nintendo, I'd be up for talking, but until then…

Inkling Prediction- 48%
Nominations:
Ice Climbers x5

 

[Bebe Mignon]

SHANTAE
Chance: 5%
+ Female
+ Seems to be a strong protagonist with a lot of potential (I haven't researched much about her)
+ Has been on a few Nintendo consoles since GBA
+ From a highly regarded series
- Indie
- Not well known

Want: 40%
While she seems like a cool character, I just don't think she's deserving of a spot on the roster as I'm not attached to her. Maybe that'll change if I ever play a Shantae game.

Inkling Prediction: 36%

Nominate: Elmax5​

 

[Braydon]

I feel like people vastly over estimate shantae's chances, third party characters make up less than a 10th the roster, only the most prominent ones get in, shantae is not one of those, plus shes not from a major company.

I'd say being third party cuts her chances by 90% just on that alone, her odds are further cut by her obscurity, and not being from a major company.

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae (and all Indie characters) ~ 0.01%

The relatively high likelihood vote that come out of indie characters are because too many people fail to understand just how difficult it is to get a third-party character in a Super Smash Bros. game. Sakurai and Nintendo have set themselves up with incredibly high expectations for third-party additions. They must be standouts, they must be very special addition, everything suggests that they must be legendary characters, and it would really help if they were very strongly requested as well or otherwise the third-party company of choice (or person from said company) comes up to Sakurai to get their character in. And here is the problem, every single indie character fail to meet any of this.

To people who think that you don't need to be legendary to be considered for inclusion, do realize what the third-party choices have been in this game.
- Snake: Metal Gear revolutionized the stealth genre and the video games multiple times.
- Sonic: The rival to Mario during the Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo Entertainment System war
- Mega Man: The franchise that put Capcom on the map during the 8-bit generation; the first of their legendary franchise and has over 100+ games.
- Pac-Man: It's ****ing Pac-Man. About as recognizable as Mario plus one of the earliest arcade legends.

Then let's look at a probable inclusion in Ryu. Ryu from Street Fighter pioneered modern fighting games, it is the reason why Super Smash Bros. exists. That is such an amazing accomplishment for one franchise that it merits him a position as a character in this game. Whenever or not we think he's interesting doesn't matter; the fact is that Ryu is a legendary character. Name me one indie character that is legendary. One that comes even remotely close to Snake, Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, and Ryu. You can't because there are no legendary indie characters. As such, they are not standouts and they are not special additions. For a franchise like Super Smash Bros. that is mostly about celebration of Nintendo's history (with a few guests), indie characters are utterly decimated.

"But X Indie character is popular!" Maybe, but that's only because companies like WayForward, IntiCreate, Nicalis, Yatch Club Games, and Team Meat (Meat Boy doesn't even having a game on a Nintendo's consoles) have come out to support them. But I question if they understand why third-party characters are so incredibly selective and are just hoping that they'll somehow overtake the likes of King K. Rool, Isaac, and Snake for this game. And the more indies that announce their support for their character of choice, the more they divide up support among each other. There are also arguing which indie character is the most likely/most deserving but that's like arguing who's the tallest ******. Who cares, bring out the legendary third-party characters like Bomberman and Slime instead or better yet, focus on Nintendo characters that are still worthwhile choices (you'd be surprised how many good stuff are still up there).

So yeah, they aren't happening. Better luck next time, perhaps then one of these indie characters might be up to snuff.

Want - 0%

Please no. When you add one of them, you might as well add them all and turn Smash into an official M.U.G.E.N. game. Which would be horrible. Maybe if one of these indies characters in the distant future become comparable to the ones we have I will reconsider but right now such indie character does not exist.

But there's not much for me to worry about in this regards anyway. Next...

Ice Climbers x3
Chorus Men x2

 

[Delzethin]

I actually did research for this one. Is this what it's like to be interested in homework?

-♪-

Shantae

Chance: 3.5%
The little half-genie that could has been making a lot of waves lately. With the ballot announcement, Way Forward hit the ground running promoting their character. Whether it matters in the end or not, Shantae is a lot more well known now than she was three weeks ago, so to that extent it's mission accomplished for them. She looks poised for a big jump in popularity, possibly enough to rival major "indie" characters like Quote and Shovel Knight (indie in quotes there since she did actually debut on the Game Boy Color).

Why haven't I mentioned Smash itself yet? Well...because even despite that, Shantae still only has a very small chance. Being a third party character will already make things more complicated than it would with all the other Nintendo-native characters. The third party characters that have made it so far are all super-iconic (and it certainly helped Snake that his creator and Sakurai go way back). Whether any more third party characters get in is up for question (I still don't buy the Ryu sound file automatically equaling him being a newcomer), and even though she has a level of underdog support...Shantae just isn't iconic enough to measure up.

And what's this I hear about her games not reaching Japan?

If Nintendo were to surprise everyone, though, and consider an indie character, she might have an argument. Way Forward is fully behind the idea of her in Smash, even drawing concept art of costume and move ideas. She also has quite a bit of moveset potential, which would also help her cause if the above scenario ever happened.

I wouldn't put my money on it, though. It'd take a miracle worthy of a genie for it to happen.

Want: Abstain
I'm carrying over something I did with the original RTC: if I haven't played any of a character's games and don't feel like I know enough about them, I pass on giving them a Want score. I don't want my lack of being informed to skew the numbers, you know?


Inkling Prediction: 63.01%
New game--new series--buzz is gonna push this one high..and not necessarily for the right reasons...


Nominations: Sceptile x5

 

[Erimir]

Shantae

Simply put - she's not that big. The third-parties we've seen so far? Icons. Snake is a pretty big deal, and he's actually the least iconic IMO. Sonic, Pac-Man and Mega Man are mascots of major video game companies, and Snake is a big star too. If we get Ryu, he's basically Mr. Fighting Game. Shantae is from a little indy developer.

I probably should try her games out, maybe that would change my opinion. But honestly, I loved Shovel Knight, but I still don't think he's going to get in.

Shantae has decent requests, at least in the US, among a certain subset of Smash players (the ones who obsess about it, like us).She's notable enough to chart. But among the general public? In Japan? I dunno about that.

Shantae chances: 0.65%
Simply put, I'm skeptical of smaller 3rd party characters getting in, and as far as that category goes, possibilities like Prof Layton and Shovel Knight seem more likely - but I don't think they're likely either.
Shantae want: 40%
Indifference towards her in herself combined with I would be disappointed we didn't go with a bigger character. She'd be ok as far as that kind of choice goes though.

Inkling prediction:
chances: 45%
I dunno, seems like there's a lot of buzz, decent amount of votes too. If Nintendo is confident in the title and/or it's a hit before the decision is made... It's not totally out there. But I think it'll be overrated.
want: no clue. I'll say 50%

So you're saying those five empty spots are for sure the only room there'll be for DLC characters? Doesn't that seem like a bit of an assumption at this point? Those are just for the time being to give them room to work with; all they'd need to do is add more in a future patch.

I'll have the character analysis up in a little while. Got a few things to take care of first...

Well yeah, they could add more. I didn't say it was for sure. In fact, what I said was that I was going to try to keep it to 6 more (Lucas, Roy, Ryu + 3 more, hence the 300%). Because I see <5 as pretty unlikely, ≥5 as very very likely, ≥6 as likely, ≥7 as possible, ≥8 as plausible but unlikely, ≥9 is a longshot. All in all, maybe that means I should go with something like 6.5 as the expected value, not exactly 6. So that'd be 350% to divide up.

All that is to say that I'm not saying that there's definitely only three open slots, I'm saying that I think the average outcome is somewhere around that. To be strictly mathematically accurate, I would want to do separate ratings for each of those scenarios and calculate the overall probability, since as I said, I don't think that characters chances are all independent. So it's a simplification to simply pretend that I should have about 300% or so to divvy up among the characters. But it does NOT mean that I think that there are definitely only 3 slots.