Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[colder_than_ice]

Good to know that we have an E3 schedule all planned out.

Viridi
Chance: 0% (Rounded down) - I think the Sakurai bias is way overestimated. Dark Pit was supposedly a very last minute character and there was almost no doubt that Palutena would make it in. It's also incredibly hard to imangine her getting in before Hades and Medusa. I don't think being a stage prop is absolute deconfirmation but it certainly is a big strike against her.
Want: 60% - She was definitely one of the funniest characters I've seen in a video game but there many other characters that I'd prefer.

Zael prediction: 3%

Nominations: Aqua x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[Double0Groove]

Viridi:

Chance: 50%
Unlike most of the people here, I'm not underestimating Sakurai's bias. People are voting for her here in the states and she's a popular choice in Japan( or so I've read), so her chances look decent.

Want: 20%
I don't hate her, I just think that Hades is the obviousnext choice here.

Nomination: Sora x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

So hyped, words cannot describe it but this emoticon:

 

[colder_than_ice]

VIRIDI
CHANCE: 7.59%
WANT: 30.84%​

Next up we're rating Zael from the last story and predicting what score Bayonetta will get tomorrow.

 

[JBRPG]

Why not start nominating soon? We know who's gonna be predicted next!

Zael:

Chance: 10%

Want: 5%

Prediction:
Bayonetta - Chance - 15%; Want: 45%

Nomination: Medusa x 5

Edit: 'd by colder than ice

 

[Deleted member]

Spoiler: Order and Chaos - The Last Story

Zael

When you look at how the bygone Wii era has been represented in Smash 4 in terms of franchises that debuted during that console generation, you notice that the game features Wii Fit Trainer from the massively successful Wii Fit series and Shulk from the somewhat obscure, but still profitable Xenoblade Chronicles as playable fighters. On the other side of the spectrum, lesser-known characters such as Zael and Calista from The Last Story, Aeron and Elena from Pandora's Tower, and Captain Rainbow from that incredibly bizarre Japan-exclusive game of the same name have been relegated as trophies.

Nintendo and Mistwalker's Wii action RPG called The Last Story may have been a critically acclaimed game, but it never reached the popularity of fellow Operation Rainfall title Xenoblade. Reflecting this, the game's main protagonist, Zael, suffers from very minuscule ballot support, even among his own fanbase.

To his credit, he isn't entirely forgotten and is still acknowledged to this day. I'm sure some of you have seen the Zael and Calista trophies in the Wii U version of Smash 4, not to mention that both characters made a special cameo appearance in the Mistwalker-developed mobile RPG called Terra Battle. It's also worth noting that Hironobu Sakaguchi, the creator and director of The Last Story as well as the Final Fantasy series during his time as a Square employee, has expressed interest in developing a sequel, but that doesn't guarantee it coming into fruition or Zael becoming playable in Smash.

I can only imagine Zael joining the roster based purely on his moveset potential, which he undeniably has. I doubt that alone will grant him a spot, especially as paid DLC, but I could be proven wrong. On a more positive note, at least he's a first party character (or second party, whatever), so the same high standards for third party candidates don't apply to him.

Chance: 5%

Want: 100%

Of course I'm giving the character I voted for a 100% want rating. Zael has moveset potential like I stated eariler, he would be accompanied by a stage based on Lazulis Island alongside a selection some of The Last Story's stellar music composed by Nobuo Uematsu of Final Fantasy fame, and who wouldn't want him to team up with his Operation Rainfall brethren?

I don't consider Zael's inclusion to be very plausible, but I would be pleasantly surprised if he joined the fray.

Prediction: Bayonetta - 9.5%

Oh, boy... Here come the optimistic supporters.

Nomination: Owain x5

 

[Burruni]

Zael

Chance: 15%

His game was one of the three brought by Operation Rainfall.

But unlike , Zael's game wasn't nearly as popular, critically acclaimed, or noticably bright in terms of a future. I believe series with more history will always come in priority by ballot and overall choices such as Rhythm Heaven, Advance Wars, and Chibi-Robo.

Want: Abstain

Unlike Xenoblade, I never got to play his game nor have I really seen his thread spark up to where I could get a good sense of what he'd offer.

 

[NintenRob]

Zael
Chance: 2%
His first party and has a trophy, but he is incredibly obscure. Not to mention Sakurai said that this isn't the sort of character that would normally appear in Smash Bros when he revealed Shulk. He also have very little support.
Want: 0%
NO. I'm sorry but just by looking at his trophy I can tell I don't want him. His design is ugly as ****. I don't want that on my CSS, I don't want that appearing in Smash videos and I don't want to have to play as that to get every trophy. And I don't want to leave my character lineup incomplete.

Bayonette
Chance: 6%
I've recently beaten both games, so tommorows going to be fun.

Nominate R.O.B. eye bug fix x5
Anyone else want to help me out so we rate this before the weekend? Or at least before we start the E3 rating
(please)
EDIT: @ colder_than_ice I just realized. This almost NEEDS to be done before the Lucas update, because if they fix it during the update, all my hard work nominations will be wasted. PLEASE can we rate this on my Friday, Three days from now (Two and a half)
Basically
1. Zael
2. Bayonetta
3. R.O.B. prediction
4. R.O.B. rate
I might sound like I'm begging (Probably because I am), but I REALLY don't want my all this to go to waste.
Maybe it can have a double day with the stage pack concept since the answer to that could also be likely answered on the direct.

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Zael
Chances: 5% Shulk was a surprise for many, I don't think Zael is feeling it
Want: 25% I want to play his game, I like classic JRPG and his game at least sound like one...

Bayonetta
Prediction: 30% optimism vs censorship

Noms:
Bub/Bob x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Zael

Chance: 1%

So as much as Sakurai loves Japan and hates America, [satire, in case anyone's wondering] I can't see this one happening. Didn't Sakurai say he didn't really like to have region-specific stuff? Not that that prevented Melee's Fire Emblem or Lucas, but still...

The Last Story was only released in the US after being petitioned almost a year or two after Japan/Europe release. True, he got a trophy, but I haven't heard much clamoring for him to be in the game in any capacity more than he already is - and the franchise still only has one game anyway.

Besides, if not many people even recognize him, will the DLC sell well? Will it be worth the investment?
​

Want: 0%

Sorry, I still think Shulk looks a little odd next to the rest of the cast since he's JRPG as opposed to the rest - I guess his closest neighbors are the Fire Emblem crew. Never really liked that art style, and I think his trophy is...special... I'm not really feeling it. [ba dum tiss]

And besides - I know unless the DLC is someone I really like or am impressed by, my money's staying in my wallet. There are SO many characters I'd prefer get in first, and I don't think that DLC for this game is unlimited.
​

Bayonetta: 7.0%

Nom: Waluigi, Ghirahim, Black Shadow x1, Chrom x2

 

[Lady Kuki]

Mind me giving a shot? :D

Zael
Chance: 3%

Pros
-Is from a series with currently little to no representation
-Has a trophy in Smash, which may gather a few people's curiosity
-Is second party, so Sakurai wouldn't have as many legal problems getting him in.

Cons
-People in the Smash community don't take anime swordsmen too kindly, even the unique ones
-Has very small support, even within his own fanbase
-Pretty obscure. People also don't take too kindly to obscure characters being in Smash. His design looks cool though, it's possible some people may look over his obscurity because of it.
-Shulk and Xenoblade have pretty much stolen his spotlight
-He even sounds a bit like Shulk!
-I've heard that he may also play too much like Shulk. I haven't played The Last Story though, so correct me if I'm wrong.
-Unlike Shulk's series, no news of a new Last Story game or anything new related to The Last Story has been confirmed as of yet.
-If Zael ever did get in, Aeron from Pandora's Tower would have to as well. It's only fair.
-His game, while critically acclaimed is not a Nintendo classic

Want: 89%
What can I say? I'm a sucker for JRPGs and anime swordsmen. Ever since I got into Xenoblade, I have been mildly interested in the other two Operation Rainfall games; I definitely wouldn't mind giving him a spin. I am however, worried about the Smash community's general reaction if he ever got in. It will probably be ugly, especially if Zael got in over other more requested characters. It is possible that Sakurai may not choose characters based off popularity, but that is unlikely from the looks of it.

Bayonetta Prediction: Abstain; I know about Bayonetta, but I am not familiar with her or any of her games enough for me to say anything about her.

Nominate: Aeron x5

 

[LIQUID12A]

Zaelstrom
that was so horrible and I love it

Chance: 2%

Okay, Shulk made it in. Zael has a trophy in Smash U and is second party, so reasonably, there wouldn't be too much conceived difficulty legality-wise.

The problem is that from what can be seen, the other Op. Rainfall games are nowhere near as notable as Xenoblade. It'd take a popularity bump for a TLS character to be considered, but at least Zael has the distinct advantage of being the protagonist.

Want: 30%

I'm being generous because this guy looks like a badass. And his design rocks.

Bayonetta prediction: 7%

Nominate: Sylux x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Hey, @ colder_than_ice , if we do "*Concept: Themed Stage packs DLC (i.e, 64, Melee, Brawl)" can we have two separate ratings?

1. for at least one DLC stage other than Miiverse
and 2. for the packs?

In general, I'd say this is the thing everyone should push to get rated before E3 week the most, as stage DLC seems like a very strong candidate to be revealed in this Sunday's mini-Direct.

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Troykv gets the extra nominations this time.

 

[Nin10doSince96]

Viridi 1%
Want 15%

 

[Zantetsugun]

Zael -

Chance: 4%
I just don't think that The Last Story has enough of a following to generate enough interest in the character. Not to say that Smash characters should be picked solely based on their popularity, but obviously it is a big factor. Also having another fantasy swordsman character would probably rub a lot of fans the wrong way.

Want: 1%
I have no real want or desire for the character.

Bayonetta: 25%

Nominate: Sylux x4, Chrom x1

 

[JBRPG]

Viridi 1%
Want 15%

Too late...

Zael is being rated today

 

[Troykv]

Zael... What the hell are... Oh... A Operation Rainfall guy... Okay.

Chance: 10%

Second Party (That is already a plus in this thread xD), but a oscure character... maybe can have some potential.

Want: 50%

I don't know him, but looks cool

Predictions: Bayonetta

Chance: 10%

@ Troykv gets the extra nominations this time.

EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!

Nominations

Micaiah x10 (I have to rate her in the exact day after Bayonetta's one)

 

[Aetheri]

Zael

Chance: 1%
I'm making this another lazy day, he's a pretty obscure character who's got a trophy which pretty much makes him at least on Sakurai's radar, but I don't think he's making a big enough splash to be really contending with anything...

----

Want: 1%
Obscure character that requires me to do research that hasn't caught my interest as of yet...Pretty much gonna do a 1% want rating for any character that fits into this criteria...

----

Prediction: 4.3%
Bayonetta
I'm not too optimistic about her chances...sure she's with Sega who's collaborating in smash and people may bring up Bayonetta 2 on the Wii U and Ryu opening up possible second company reps and whatnot, but Bayonetta has quite a bit in her way as well...

----

Nominations:
Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x3 (Imagine different campaign modes for major franchises available; Mario Campaign, Zelda Campaign, DK Campaign, Metroid Campaign, etc; with more enemies and bosses for each campaign; they could each have their own story line to follow with 'required' and 'optional' characters to play as, much like it was in the SSE, but not quite as elaborate, and no Great Maze...please no great Maze Sakurai)
Concept: Alpha Stages x1
!Rerate: Inklings x1

 

[Nimbostratus]

Zeal
I'm surprised we're getting to her before even rating Crono, but she's… quite the character. But hey, she'd bring some epic music, and she could summon Lavos for a final smash. Maybe we would ev-

Wait… Zael?
Zael
Chance- 3.9%
Honestly, I'm not an expert on Zael. This is my best guess based off what I've read so far. Not really an argument so much as a response from what I've seen.

Want- 15%
New series, but there are just too many more important characters. And I don't have a personal connection to help balance it.

Bayonetta Predictions- 17%
Nominations:
Zeal Crono x5

 

[Roaring Salsa]

Zael
A bit busy to elaborate.

Chance: 10%
Want: Abstain

Nominations
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Zael

Chance - 0.75% - Yeah, a cult series no where near as popular as even Mother or Xenoblade. Sadly lacks the support to even get on the radar. Some love from Rainfall and fans, but I doubt it is enough.

Want - 50% - Eh, don't care much. I'd do research on his abilities, but poor internet makes me avoid this unroll I have my home computer.


Bayonetta prediction - 11.35% - Supporters come in and make a racket.

Nominations

New Palutena's Guidance Conversations X 5

 

[PreedReve]

Zael
Chance: 10%. I may have been the one to create the support thread for Calista but even I know that it would be a stretch for a character from this game to be in Smash. Maybe if it received the same treatment as Xenoblade Chronicles and got a remake I would see this happening.

Want: 50%. I would much rather have Calista represent The Last Story, her spells have more potential then Zael's swordplay, I think.

Nomination:
Style Savvy x4
Calista from The Last Story x1

*Edit*
An interesting note I've just discovered is that Pandora's Tower, the third Operation Rainfall game, has been comfirmed to be released on the Wii U's eShop in Japan, Europe, and Australia/New Zealand later this year. This could mean that a release for the Last Story isn't too far behind, granted there as been no word from XSeed (the company that published both in North America) for a NA release of either.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Zael

Chance: 1%
He's pretty obscure in the west.

Want: 1%

Predictions: Bayonetta 10%

Nominations: Sami X5.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Zael's incredibly obscure - he's lucky to get a Trophy if you ask me, so I'll abstain for today.

Nominations: Inklings X5

Bayonetta Prediction: 13%

 

[Delzethin]

So a team of game developers creates a runaway success with an RPG series they call Final Fantasy. Years later, they've all left their original company, and dissatisfied with their current situations, they form a new company named Mistwalker. Their attempt to create a new RPG for the modern age? The Last Story.

Final Fantasy. Last Story. See what they did there?

-♪-

Zael

Chance: 3.25%
You could consider Zael...Shulk's brother in spirit, in a way. Both came from hit RPGs that had no initial plans to leave Japan, but eventually saw a release worldwide through Operation Rainfall. Unlike Shulk, though, Zael's game wasn't quite as successful critically or commercially. That is what holds him back the most here--the tepid turnout of The Last Story has lent him little ballot support, and he isn't the kind of character the dev team might take a look at outside the Smash Ballot.

If something came together, though? He could potentially have a chance. He has an interesting array of techniques despite being yet another swordfighter, including several that let him take advantage of his surroundings. His moveset could have just as much of a focus on positioning that it does in his home game! In addition, he has some minor wind powers, an element that's pretty rare on the roster. If he were to get in, he'd definitely lend toward feeling unique.

As it stands, though...that's a very big if.

Want: Abstain
The most I know of The Last Story comes from things I read a long time ago and the research I did earlier. I will say this, though: I'm at least intrigued by Zael now.

...I also notice I'm writing less and less as RTC goes on. I guess it was bound to happen as we got into the more obscure characters.


Bayonetta Prediction: 10.50%
With at least some kind of bandwagon and with a couple vocal supporters already preparing to argue their case...this could be higher than many expect. Whether it'll reflect her actual chances or just skew everything remains to be seen.


Nominations:
Absol x5
Meanwhile, you know who isn't as obscure as Zael? There's as much Absol fanart out there as there is of most starters or legendaries!

 

[Chandeelure]

-Zael:
Chances: 2%
Want: 0%

-Nominations:
Prince Fluff X5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Zael:
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

Takamaru x5

Bananetta: 9.4%

 

[ShinyRegice]

Fairly short rating this time.

Zael chances: 0.7%
As I always say when I'm rating a character from a currently unrepresented franchises, all series represented in Smash usually are Nintendo's flagship or most influent ones; I honestly doubt The Last Story may be described as such, and there's overall little demand to see it getting playable representation in Smash. Plus it had been overshadowed by Xenoblade Chronicles as a RPG coming from Operation Rainfall. I suppose he'll get his chance another day if The Last Story becomes stronger as a series in the future?

Zael want: 32%
Not too interested. Looking at him doesn't make me think "THIS is what Smash Bros. needs!"

Bayonetta prediction: 14.82%
Considering Bayonetta 2 had been funded and published by Nintendo, I'm expecting her to not do terribly for a third-party character.

Nominating:
Concept: Battlefield form stages x4
Playable newcomer: Tetrimino x1

 

[FalKoopa]

In short, 'Go directly to ZAEL, Do not pass Smash, Do not collect $200'

ZAEL:
CHANCE: 5%
Zael's game, The Last Story, is unfortunately stuck in the shadow of Xenoblade, and is really lacking in demand except for some Project Rainfall fans. The small chance he does have comes from being acknowledged in Smash trophies, so the developers are indeed aware of him and what he can bring to the table.

WANT: 5%
I'm terribly unfamiliar with the Last Story so that's all the want I can give.

BAYONETTA PREDICTION: 18%
Tomorrow is going to be another hotly debated day, bank on it.

ASHLEY (WARIOWARE) × 5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 2%
Want: 0%

Bayonetta prediction: 12%

Nominations: Gengar 5x

 

[StormC]

Chance: 1%. As I mentioned earlier, I had to google to find out who this guy is. That doesn't bode well for him.

Want: 10%. Don't really have an opinion on this character, but I think his addition would be strange and unnecessary.

Bayonetta prediction: 20%.

Beast Ganon 5x

 

[Champ Gold]

Who?

Spoiler

Oh from that Operation Rainfall game that wasn't Xenoblade. Yikes

Zael
Chance: 4%
Didn't have the popularity Xenoblade got, not a hit on the ballot. Just straight nothing


Want:Abstain
Never played his game and I don't have any emotion toward him whatsoever.

Bayonetta
OH GODDAMN IT, @ BluePikmin11
Tomorrow is gonna be worst than Roy
Prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Starman x5
Isa x5
Medusa x2

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Zael
Chance: 1%
He already has a trophy in Smash, so that has to count for something.
Otherwise, I doubt that we will get another Rainfall character. Shulk was highly demanded during speculation and he comes from the game that is said to be "the best JRPG of the last generation." Zael and The Last Story haven't reached that sort of acclaim.
That, and combined with pretty small ballot support, will give Zael a tough time.

Want: 30%
I'm a bit interested, but I don't have a connection with him to really want him.

Bayonetta Prediction: 18.38%
I am sensing a lot of inflated scores tomorrow.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[BluePikmin11]

Bayonetta Prediction:
11.241%

Nominations:
x5 Isabelle

 

[Laniv]

Zael:

Chance: 2%
Hey look, it's The Last Story, the other Rainfall game out of three. ...He's got a trophy, that's gotta count for something...

Want: Abstain
Never played his game.

Prediction for Bayonetta: 45% Chance, 80% Want

Nominate Homecoming Hijinx song x 5

 

[AirshBornely]

Holy crudités, yes! We're rating Zael!!!

-Zael

Chance: 21%
-Sure, he's obscure, but so were characters like Shulk (arguably), Mr. G&W and Marth.
-Has potential in agood moveset. (though, not as unique as Shulk's)
-A trophy in smash, but that never stoppedMewtwo or Lucus.
-Is another "anime swordmen"
-His game didn't get to Xenoblade Chronicles level of popularity.
-Isn't exactly highly requested from what I've seen....

Want: 80% I'm at least wanting music from The Last Story. And I would be pleasantly surprised if Zael is dlc. (Still need to finish the game)

Bayonetta: 40%

 

[HotNTasty]

Zael
Chance: 1%
Since this is DLC, popularity and "sellability" are extremely important. However, his series is obscure, and he wasn't very requested. Most people who see him will simply think "another animu swordsman" and move on, say nothing of his competition.
Want:0%
As I felt about , I STILL prefer Aeron. I liked his game, his character, and think he has amazing moveset potential. Enough gushing about him though, both of them are never going to happen.

x5 Noms to Rerate!Inkling

 

[A Distant Demon]

*Viridi beat Henry Fleming in chance and Geno, Chorus Kids, and Toon Zelda in want

i mean ill take it but it wasnt expected.

Zael
chance- 4%
not popular and certainly not pre-ballot. would require a sequel.

want 35%
he has a cool design and what gameplay I saw looked nice.

prediction (why am I even bothering?) 8.86%

noms
Agnes Oblige 5

 

[SmilingMad]

Zael
who
ZAEL
who
Generic anime-esque protagonist with carefully feathered hair and overdesigned clothing and armour. Wields a large sharp object.
oh another one of those

Chance: 5%
The games were fairly highly rated. That's great.
Sadly, he originates from a somewhat unknown 'series' consisting of one whole game, with no signs of a possible upcoming sequel. Of course, Xenoblade was a thing and Shulk is in the game now, but Xenoblade was kind of a weird case anyway, what with the limited availability. Probably not going to happen.

Want: 10%
I don't want to say anime swordsman, but I am going to say anime swordsman because god damn is he an anime swordsman. I give him 10% because I'd be interested in him if those chains in his artwork actually have some sort of combat purpose, but other than that, no thank you.
also im pretty sure his design was made by the same person who did designs for drakengard but that is irrelevant

Bayonetta: abstain
im bad at predictions