Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Deleted member]

Inkling

Chance: 55%

If the Nintendo wanted Sakurai to include the Inklings in Smash 4 to promote Splatoon before release, then the squid children probably would have been revealed in the most recent Nintendo Direct in place of Lucas.

Considering the fact that Splatoon is a brand new IP that has yet to be released, I think the Inklings could go either way depending on how Splatoon performs in the sales department.

When you look at how the bygone Wii era has been represented in Smash 4 in terms of franchises that debuted during that console generation, you notice that the game features Wii Fit Trainer from the massively successful Wii Fit series and Shulk from the somewhat obscure, but still profitable Xenoblade Chronicles as playable fighters. On the other side of the spectrum, lesser-known characters such as Zael and Calista from The Last Story, Aeron and Elena from Pandora's Tower, and Captain Rainbow from that incredibly bizarre Japan-exclusive game of the same name have been relegated as trophies.

The only reason I chose not to rate the Inklings exactly at 50% is because several players highly anticipating Splatoon have voted for them in the ballot, so I'm sure Sakurai will at least take that into consideration.

Want: 100%

Just as I wanted Shulk partially so that the Xenoblade series receives the exposure it deserves, I'm all for the Inklings' inclusion in Smash 4 for the purpose of advertising Splatoon. I'm sure I would enjoy their moveset as well.

Prediction: Rayman - 25%

He's certainly one of the more likely third party characters, but he has his share of issues.

Nomination: Snake x5

 

[smileMasky]

Inkling
Chance 50%(?)
The game is not out, but fans and Nintendo are pushing this new IP. So it does get a good amount of support. They may also Pull a Roy and make this their first actual game. But I call a 50/50 on this one

Want 75%
If there is something I look for a character it is gameplay so fresh that it just fell off a tree also I look for new style or I guess character design something that is complex but mesh really well or it could be simple but still stand out from a crowd. I would say Inkling fits that perfectly. I want them But I am not Over hyped for them just only somewhat

Nomination
Django x5

 

[FancySmash]

Inklings

Chance: 40% - People really seem to be placing these guys high on the ballot. However, I don't think they are the highest in voting for the ballot (I believe that's K. Rool, feel free to prove me wrong though!), so that already might hinder them. Also, because their game hasn't even come out yet, they don't have much for move set capabilities.

Want: 0% - Sorry, I'm going to have to be that guy (I believe this is the first 0% want that I've given). First of all, the game for these guys hasn't even come out yet. This isn't the same thing as Roy, who had a previously established series, these guys are just jumping into a series for the first time. We have nothing to go off of for these characters. I'd prefer we wait until the game is released before putting them in Smash. There is also the matter of "being legendary" in gaming. While this might more so apply to 3rd party characters, I feel it does also apply just a bit to first party characters. I just feel that they should go through a "proving" trial first before anyone decides anything.

Rayman: 25% - Oh, I only vaguely remember this guy. He had some rabbit thing going on for some time didn't he? I don't know, I feel that if Nintendo really wanted to include him in the game, they'd have done so by now. Hmm, perhaps we'll wait and see...

Nominations:
Ice Climbers X5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Inkling
Chance: 40%
To me, it depends on how long they plan to support Smash 4 DLC. If they're still supporting around 2016 and Splatoon is a big enough success, I can see it happening.

Want: 33%
I've never been big on the idea of a recent character from an entirely new franchise getting in, and I'm also not too excited about Splatoon itself. But they do look like they'd have a fun style.

Nominate Anna x5

 

[Braydon]

Inkiling:
Chance: 40% don't know much about it but it seems like it would be good for exposure

Want: 1% doesn't really interest me to much, don't see the most interesting moveset coming out of it.

Nomination: Monster hunter x5

Prediction: rayman, 36%

 

[Senselessbreak]

Nominate:

Chorus Kids x 5

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

King K. Rool: Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

That awkward moment when you realize you rated Banjo higher then Krystal, and that awkward moment when you realize you still agree with said ratings

Inklings Chance: 50%

A) Will Nintendo use Smash DLC to promote upcoming/recent games?

and/or

B) Will Splatoon be popular and successful?

Inklings chances rely heavily on these two questions, and we don't really have an answer to either. I think the Inkling qualifies in all other areas, they've got a good design that fits very well in Smash, plenty of moveset potential, and I'm seeing plenty of people voting for them to be in the game. So their chances rely on the above two questions, and I can't say one way or another how Splatoon will turn out. So, 50%!

Inkling Want: 20%

I (grudgingly) accept that Smash will support relevancy, this is very apparent with Smash 4's lineup of newcomers, and it might continue through DLC... but I would realllly prefer that iconic Nintendo all stars and third parties would get in first. Plus Inklings game isn't even OUT YET. My want score might raise after that, but I don't and can't know enough about them to have a good opinion about them.

Rayman Predictions: 18%

If Rayman gets ranked lower then Shantae in terms of chance I will lose all faith in this game

Noms:
Quote x5

 

[SegaNintendoUbisoft]

Inkling:
Chance: 65%
A new IP that not only is Nintendo heavily promoting, but is also gaining a lot of hype. People want them in even though their game hasn't been released yet. It would be a great way to advertise Splatoon, and I think Nintendo knows this.

Want: 90%
Splatoon is my most hyped game of the year, I would love to see Inkling join Smash. I'm already hyped for the game as is, having them in Smash would be the cherry on top.

Rayman:
95%
35%

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x3
Dr. Eggman x2

 

[Ura]

Inkling

Chance: 50%

Might or might not get in, IDK.

Want: 0%

I have no interest in her being in Smash and I don't want to see it happen.

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Inkling
Chance: 40%
I think they'd have somewhat of a chance being a new Nintendo IP, they're playstyle, and could benefit from being DLC on another game since it's a brand new title. The character designs look nice too and would match well the rest of the Smash cast.

Want: 30%
I wouldn't mind seeing them as new characters but would prefer for others to get in before them. I'm rooting for the people that want them in though

Rayman: I predict about 39%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[XStarWarriorX]

Inkling:
Chance is 25%
1) They are not from an established franchise.
2) Their moveset could cause FPS problems, you think ink everywhere in article form in a fighting game will just be peachy in the 3ds version? lol look what happened to bowser jr. i'd say that was a part of not giving him that moveset.
3) They are a bandwagon character, just like the chrous kids. If not their popularity would be cut. (they'll be skewed this round for sure)
etc etc. I do not want to do a text wall

I do not think they are coming this smash regardless of how well they do, sakurai's the type to let new characters grow and let them "prove their worth", inkling will need time so I think their chance is in the next smash. If they do well that is. (also people treat the inkling girl as their waifu turned me off the character even more).

Want is 1%: Just like the chrous kids i dont like this character at all sorry, as I was indifferent to them to start but the bandwagoning....

Anyway i tried to be fair, just because i dont like them i gave them a decent chance (hell i rated my wanted char less yesterday so dont even...) Still think its next smash or bust.

Rayman: 40% He's another bandwagon type but, he has the kind of "iconicness" that the big hitters do so i'll let that slide. His popularity is justified.

Noms: Snake x5

 

[Troykv]

Inkling

Chance: 45%

Because recent relevancy, I can't think anything. But the moveset's idea sounds original.

Want: 15%

IS TOO SOON

Prediciton

Rayman Chance 25%

Nominations:

Micaiah x2
Tiki x2
kos-mos x1

 

[Aetheri]

and now for the 'Not released yet' subject...

Inklings
Chance: 45%
Well, not much to say about the Inklings but the deal is that is the case for everyone as not only are they a new character but they're franchise hasn't even been released yet...Even still they already have a bunch of fans as they seem to be doing fairly well in various polls around the net, sometimes even landing top 5 (but not consistently, mind you) In terms of a moveset it is hard to say as their game isn't out yet but there are still some fairly neat abilities present one being able to turn into a squid that can swim within their splattered ink (actually I heard that they are originally squids and the 'kid forms' are their transformations, but I could be wrong)...
Now for the kicker...would both Splatoon and smash benefit if the Inklings are released for dlc? Maybe. When you look at both Roy and Lucas who were featured as Smash fighters before their games were released then the possibility is there, but unlike Lucas and Roy; Splatoon is the first in it's series. It seems to have a fair amount of hype and support behind it but at the same time no one really knows if it will indeed live up to that hype, where as budding franchises have their respective fanbases to turn to if it isn't 'amazing' so sales are not going to be too terrible as the fanbases can still stand behind those games...Either way I feel like Nintendo may wait a bit just to test the waters first, let the brand new franchise give itself some time to settle before trying to sell itself beforehand...If this was for Smash 5 after the game has already has already settled into the Nintendo Gaming world and has done moderately well in terms of sales (with the same fan support) then you'd see a nice 90% from me...but since this for Smash 4 dlc and the game is still new (not even technically), I'm gonna split that percentage in half as the possibility is there but not quite a definite certainty...

Want: 50%
Well can't say I know much about them, not much more than anyone else obviously...once the game is out I may have a better grasp but overall they do seem like interesting characters...I wasn't as hyped as most when the game was first revealed so I'm not really all that excited about it (the game actually reminds me of a mini game from Crash Bash back in the day, cept on a whole nother level) Overall it would be neat to try them out but I'm not going to be disappointed in there not in...so I'm pretty much neutral on the whole situation...in terms of their chances and how I feel about them...

Prediction:
Rayman-20%
Third party rep number 3...chances are still low but with his trophy already in smash, chances are better than most...

Nominations:
Wolf x2
Wolf Link & Midna x2
Dark Samus x1

 

[BKupa666]

Inklings:

Chance - 33%
I think the Inklings' odds hinge on them being the final 'Mario' among the placeholder data, assuming the placeholder Marios are for pre-ballot characters. Since there aren't really any veterans left after Wolf I find probable (sorry, Snake), that final spot is either going to be some cut newcomer who Nintendo has confidence will sell, some promotional character they were planning anyway, or a character they knew would perform well on the ballot anyway and wanted to clear off. Inklings fall very clearly into the second category, since even though they have handfuls of fans voting for them over here, based on the Japanese intel we have, they find us Westerners "weird" for supporting the character before their game has even released. What's more, I don't have much faith at all where Splatoon's sales are concerned, after what happened to Wonderful 101. Hopefully I am not correct in this regard.

Want - 0%
I want to actually see the complete game before reading a verdict on them. As of now, people have no attachment to the character whatsoever, and are just supporting the character based on concept or because "new series reps." Looking at the game from a character perspective, I can't agree to that, at least not yet.

Rayman Prediction - 16.5%

Nominate Shovel Knight x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Inklings:

Chances: 55%
Want: 40%

-Nominations: Geno X5

 

[Bebe Mignon]

INKLING
Chance: 45%
Want: 100%

Too lazy to type pros and cons. Even if they don't make it as Smash DLC, they're basically a shoe-in for the next Smash game.

RAYMAN
10%

Nominate:

Elmax5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Day 10: Inkling
Chances: 30%.
+The Inklings from what we've seen of them so far seem very versatile for moveset potential, but perhaps when the game comes out we'll be able to see how far that potential lies.
+Promotion for Splatoon in the current generation of Smash, but if the series does well enough by the time Smash 5 comes out, I can see Inkling joining as a newcomer instead.
~Needs a hefty amount of Ballot votes.
~As I've seen and are fully aware of, it might be a touch too soon to judge what they can do if all we've seen is promotional footage and human creativity from supporters.

Wants: Since the Ballot's announcement and the discovery of Ryu and Roy's files, I've kind of slowed down on supporting them, probably to the extent that I'm at 51%. I still love the ingenuity of Splatoon and I think that it's the perfect kind of IP well-suited for Super Smash Bros, be it for DLC in this game or for future games.

Rayman Prediction: 45%
Nominations: Ridley X5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Well...yesterday got a little hot-tempered. Kinda reminds me of the glory days in the Ridley thread...

Anyway, on to the main topic.

Inklings

Chance: 35%

Well, all we know about them is...they're going to be featured in a game which isn't even being released for a month. It's odd to even consider that they'll make an appearance in Smash without a game to their name (but like most things in Smash, it's been done before - Roy in Melee...). What they do have going for them is the fact that they absolutely stole the show at E3 last year. We know nothing about how well the game will do, or even if we're going to like it, so why is everyone so hyped about supporting them? True, they're a new franchise (maybe TOO new), but why does something being brand new automatically trump something established? Perhaps we should wait a bit to see how they are received. Besides, the 3DS will never be able to handle a 'paint everything' based moveset - their best moves would probably be similar to Mario's FLUDD. And doesn't everyone hate that move? Could be interesting, but we know nothing about them.
Also, like Toad, they've got amiibo already. We'll see... But as of now, it really feels like a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon. Maybe they'll be awesome, maybe the game will fall flat - we don't know yet.
​

Want: 15%

Just because it's new doesn't mean it needs to be included. Sm4sh already is chock full of newbies...its newest character is currently from less than a year old. 5 of the current cast did not exist before Brawl in 2008, whose newest character then was from 7 years prior. Yeah, I may be a bit biased, but I'm pulling for villains in established franchises - ones who were cameos in Melee in 2001 who have not gotten a chance to be playable.
They look like they fit the part, but I'm still sitting on my votes here since they're nowhere near my most wanted. How can I tell if I'll like a character if all I know of them is a hype trailer from E3?
​

Prediction: Rayman
Chance: 12.5%, Want: 50.0%

Nominations:
Honestly, how has Wolf not gotten to the top yet, he's been right there since the beginning...
x5

 

[BigShad]

Inkling's chances: At least 60%, I feel, because Nintendo's been really trying to promote Splatoon, even going to Playboy for this stuff. I feel like the poll won't even matter for these guys. They may not be out right now, but that didn't stop Roy.

Want: 80%. In my terms, that means quite a bit, as they're cute as hell and provide a new playstyle if Nintendo does it right, based around shooting ink.

 

[Senselessbreak]

Inklings:

Chance as DLC: 10%
Chance as being in Smash 5: 99%

Want 90%

I feel Inklings are perfect for Smash. Their design is great, the lead Inkling is another female rep, and they are fairly popular even before release. Probably the strongest reason they could be added as DLC is to advertise the game. While thats said, I still think its really unlikely they will be added this time around.

First of all, they are a rep for a new IP series. Not only a new IP series, a post Smash 4 series. Each Smash game we get a handful of new characters that were created since the previous game. They are the freshest series, and easy to market into the game. Shulk and Wii Fit Trainer come to mind. I feel Inklings are big enough to save for another game, as currently the only other contender for New IP rep is Codename Steam. While its possible Codename Steam gets a rep, I see it unlikely as the game seems to have disappointed both fans, and Nintendo in terms of sales. Sure we are talking about future IPs, some that don't exist yet, but Nintendo hasn't created that many new IPs in recent years... or rather, many big name IPs. Sure theres Dillon, and Pushmo, but these are eshop titles that gain no where as much love as Splatoon has.

The next big reason I don't see inklings getting in this time around.........the 3DS. A big part of their move set is ink, and laying out the terrain in traversable ink. Maybe they could shoot ink in a similar way as Mario does water, however the water disappears right away. In order to reach their full potential, they would need to keep the ink for a reasonable amount of time, that way they can turn into squids freely. Maybe their squid form can be a dash move, similar to pacmans 8bit dash, or maybe it can be a final smash. Eitherway, if they go an ink based moveset, I can see this hurting the performance of the 3DS, especially with 4 inklings.

EItherway, Im extremely confident Inkling will make it into Smash, one way or another. I just don't feel they will be DLC.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Inkling Chances - 65%
The highest at this point I'll give anyone who isn't KKR or Wolf. They are the perfect promotional newcomer. Any other game besides Star Fox is too far in the future to have a big promotional DLC-tie in with Smash. The timing is right, the amiibos are there, the Wii U bundle is there, the Treehouse demo and Playboy ads are there, the crowd reception and hype is there. Splatoon has everything going for it to be Nintendo's next big IP, and there's already respectable fan demand for them in Smash. It helps that they're an EAD team game on top it. I could be overestimating Inklings, but all the cards are in their tentacles. All the game needs is to succeed both commercially and critically.

Want - 75% I love their design and moveset potential.

nominate Paper Mario x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Inklings
Chance- 30%
The Inklings have a good deal of popularity, and Nintendo certainly has hyped the game up. Also, Smash is abnormally biased for recency. That being said, the game isn't out yet and we don't even know if it will be a success. Given the console that it is coming out on, it wouldn't be a surprise if it wasn't. Their inclusion could go either way, honestly. Not sure if we'll see them this time around, but they will definitely be big contenders next time around if the game does well and Nintendo seems to have plans for the IP's future.
Want- 80%
Twenty points off as someone who likes to complain about overrepresentation of recent games… but whatever. I like the Inklings. They have personality, an interesting design, and would likely have a very unique playing style.

Rayman Predictions- 16%
Nominations:
Ice Climbers x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

This news is relevant to today's rating. Just saw this Splatoon commercial on AMC. It's not every Nintendo game that gets a full TV spot.

https://youtu.be/lyzyAS74H3A

 

[jahkzheng]

Well...yesterday got a little hot-tempered. Kinda reminds me of the glory days in the Ridley thread...

Anyway, on to the main topic.

Inklings

Chance: 35%

Well, all we know about them is...they're going to be featured in a game which isn't even being released for a month. It's odd to even consider that they'll make an appearance in Smash without a game to their name (but like most things in Smash, it's been done before - Roy in Melee...). What they do have going for them is the fact that they absolutely stole the show at E3 last year. We know nothing about how well the game will do, or even if we're going to like it, so why is everyone so hyped about supporting them? True, they're a new franchise (maybe TOO new), but why does something being brand new automatically trump something established? Perhaps we should wait a bit to see how they are received. Besides, the 3DS will never be able to handle a 'paint everything' based moveset - their best moves would probably be similar to Mario's FLUDD. And doesn't everyone hate that move? Could be interesting, but we know nothing about them.
Also, like Toad, they've got amiibo already. We'll see... But as of now, it really feels like a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon. Maybe they'll be awesome, maybe the game will fall flat - we don't know yet.
​

Want: 15%

Just because it's new doesn't mean it needs to be included. Sm4sh already is chock full of newbies...its newest character is currently from less than a year old. 5 of the current cast did not exist before Brawl in 2008, whose newest character then was from 7 years prior. Yeah, I may be a bit biased, but I'm pulling for villains in established franchises - ones who were cameos in Melee in 2001 who have not gotten a chance to be playable.
They look like they fit the part, but I'm still sitting on my votes here since they're nowhere near my most wanted. How can I tell if I'll like a character if all I know of them is a hype trailer from E3?
​

Prediction: Rayman
Chance: 12.5%, Want: 50.0%

Nominations:
Honestly, how has Wolf not gotten to the top yet, he's been right there since the beginning...
x5

I personally really want Wolf in the game, but I've been purposefully avoiding voting for him because I feel like it will be an uninteresting character to assess. It would be almost like assessing Ryu or Roy to me. He'll pop up eventually regardless of how I vote though. I guess a part of me just wants him to be confirmed already so we needn't bother with speculation... especially when his confirmation just seems so, uh, "has to happen".

 

[DNeon]

Inkling

Chances: 60%

It'll happen eventually, I don't imagine Nintendo's foray into the FPS genre is going to fail bad enough that they don't keep the franchise going, so Inklings will turn up at some point.

Want: 20%

Honestly not getting all the hype. I seriously can't see Inkings doing anything that a Mii Gunner doesn't do, and people suggesting an ink like mehcanic similar to Splatoon are out of their mind to think that Nintendo would put something so visually changing and rather gimmicky into the relatively simple game. Don't get me wrong, I reeeeeeaaaaallllllyyyy want Splatoon, and I'm going to play the **** out of it when it comes out, but I'm not really expecting a Smash Inkling to be great.

Rayman

Prediction: 17%

Most likely of the 3rd parties really, but nevertheless it's a 3rd party character.

Votes 5x Advance Wars Character

 

[Nintendotard]

Damn, such low rates... and how the hell did I miss Shantae? I feel like Impa was up for 2 days then Shantae was up for like 6 hours haha. I'll get to her at the end

INKLINGS
Chance: 50%
- New IP that I feel has a calling for Smash. They could have such a huge potential for an interesting gimmick in the moveset, such as the other characters have had that were newcomers in Smash 4. Sure they're young, but its also a great way to promote the game. Just look at Roy.

Want: 90%
- Reasons above. Gender differences such as Wii Fit Trainer and Villager and Robin. I'd definitely try them out and try to main them

Predictions
Rayman - 30%

Nominations
Paper Mario x4
Daisy

Previous Characters:

SHANTAE
Chance: .1%
- Even if indie games are popular and some big time games have made references to them at times, I don't think a game like Smash Bros will ever include a character like that to be PLAYABLE. I'm aware that theres a trophy for one of them, but again, thats a trophy, a simple reference or acknowledgement that they exist. Give some trophies for Shovel Knight, Shantae, etc (although the first two are the only ones I really hear being voted for a lot)

Want: 0%
- Not to disrespect indie games, but again I don't care nor want them to be in Smash. I'm sure their games are great and that they may fit into Smash really well (which if you think about it, a lot of characters in any Nintendo game can), but lets leave it to super popular 3rd party characters (Ryu, Rayman, Banjo & Kazzoie, Crash [</3]) or actual Nintendo characters.

 

[FalKoopa]

INKLINGS:
CHANCE: 15%
WANT: 85%

I personally feel that Inklings are a little too new to be considered for inclusion as DLC. While using DLC for promoting upcoming games has happened with other companies, Nintendo hasn't done it, yet. That said, Inklings and Splatoon have garnered an extremely positive reception across the Internet and have a surprisingly high demand for a game that hasn't been released yet.

As for want, I absolutely LOVE their design, and their game oozes potential. They can easily inherit the paint-based movesets people made for Bowser Jr. and look cooler while doing it.

And MOST importantly, this exists, while it has a zero chance of happening. It may sound astronomically stupid and incredibly shallow, but DAMN I WANT THIS TO HAPPEN.
[collapse='でゲソ']

[/collapse]

RAYMAN PREDICTION: 25%

NOMINATIONS: IVYSAUR × 5

 

[Delzethin]

Can I call attention to something? In the context of today, it's important.

The story of the Melee clones is pretty well known now. As the game neared the end of development, Sakurai felt the roster was lacking. He gave the go-ahead to work on clones of six characters already on the roster, because they could pull it off in the time it'd take to program one fully unique character (rumor has it it would've been King Dedede) and it'd give them the means to satisfy more of the fans' requests.

Some potential clones were switched out for others in this process. Wolf was originally going to be the Fox clone, but when concerns rose about him looking too similar to Fox they decided to go with Falco instead. Wario was planned as the Mario clone, but they went with Doc instead after Sakurai brought up that it didn't do Wario justice to be stuck as a clone. And the Marth clone was going to be Leif...until Sakurai went to get the OK from Intelligent Systems. That was when--as said in a Famitsu magazine a while later--they showed him a character from a game still a few months away from release, and suggested he'd be more visually distinct than Leif. Sakurai agreed, and Roy was added in Leif's stead.

In other words, Roy actually wasn't added to Melee for promotional reasons. That also means no character has ever been added to a Smash game for promotional reasons.

And that brings us to our topic today.

-♪- (In lieu of original, unedited extended Splatoon music, I had to improvise.)

Inkling

Chance: 25%
Splatoon is just a couple weeks away, and the hype is greater than ever. Nintendo's foray into competitive third person shooters looks bright, cartoony, and aesthetically unique while (from what we've seen so far) showing impressive depth beneath the surface. Although nothing is certain for now, the series looks to have a bright future and could end up being a Nintendo mainstay for multiplayer like with Mario Kart, Mario Party, and...well, Smash. Surely a character from Splatoon would fit right in, right? Especially since so many fans like the idea that the Inklings are frequently showing up in the Top 5 of Western polls?

Look beyond the surface, though, and things get...complicated. First of all, the Inklings' moveset potential is still up in the air. We've only seen some of the weapons available, and and only one that looks suitable for melee attacks so far is the paint roller...barely. Considering even Samus, Mega Man, and the Mii Gunner still use close range moves for over half their attacks, if such a significant part of the Inklings' moveset had to be fabricated, it could prove discouraging. There's just so much that we do not know yet.

Now tack on what we went over earlier. The biggest assumed advantage the Inklings have is that they could use Smash to promote Splatoon. But no character--not even Roy--was added to Smash for promotional reasons, and we've seen nothing so far to suggest their stance has changed. As Smash is a celebration of Nintendo and its games first, and a marketing tool second, the whole promotion argument falls apart like an ink creature in water.

And if that wasn't enough, Nintendo's hesitated on adding content to Smash that came about too close to the Smash game's release. Pikmin debuted a month prior to Melee in Japan, but all it got was a pair of trophies (And one was an easter egg that required memory card data from Pikmin!). Super Mario Galaxy came out a couple months before Brawl's release to massive acclaim...and got nothing in Brawl. No Rosalina, no trophies, not even any music. Characters especially are risky: it takes a lot of time to gauge how popular a character is, and promoting a disliked character too heavily can resort in...dire consequences. The only times we've seen them come close to this risk was with Roy (they were desperate for clones, and he seemed more interesting than Leif would've been) and Greninja (from a game that hadn't been out yet when the roster was decided, but would've been for a year when Smash 4 came out, making it more risky not to include him or a counterpart and leave the fans wondering why there wasn't a playable character from Gen 6).

Adding a character to Smash from a series that will be less than half a year old when the polls close could work out...or it could just as easily end up coming back to haunt them. The dev team has to know this. I don't see them even considering an Inkling character for DLC until at least Fall 2016...and even then, it's more likely they'll save Splatoon for Smash 5.

Want: 20%
Yes, I said I prefer to abstain when I haven't played a character's games. Yes, I'm...being a bit of a hypocrite in that regard. In this case, though, it's less about the character and more about the context. It's just too soon.

Give the Inklings some time to come into their own first instead of rushing them into Smash prematurely.


Rayman Prediction: 22.5%
This one's hard to judge. A mid-tier third party candidate who could have a lot of ratings from either direction.


Nominations: Sceptile x5

 

[Braydon]

In other words, Roy actually wasn't added to Melee for promotional reasons. That also means no character has ever been added to a Smash game for promotional reasons.

It's still a massive factor, even if they won't add them simply for promotional reasons.

 

[N3ON]

That's what Sakurai says, who knows if it's the complete truth.

There have been characters added for promotional reasons, regardless if Roy is one of them or not. If you're waiting for companies to give that as their reasoning, you're going to be waiting a long time.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Inklings

Chance: 62%
Alright, I'll be honest; I'm fairly confident the Inklings will be DLC. Nintendo seems to be highly confident in them judging by the fact they got their own amiibo line; the cost of these figures to make would be ridiculous if they didn't think the game would sell.

To make sure it sells however, what better way than to include the characters in Smash Bros? It's a sneaky self promotion tactic, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if Nintendo actually did this, particularly as the characters already seemed to be pretty requested.
The only thing I'm not sure on is whether Nintendo will add them pre or post ballot. The Inklings are doing decently in the ballot polls as is, and so it could easily be either way.

Want: 70%
I'm looking forward to Splatoon. A lot.
I love team based games and it feels like Nintendo's been missing a good team based shooter for a while now. I doubt it'll be a Team Fortress 2 beater, but will be great in it's own right.

The various ink weapons we've seen so far could lend themselves to a nice moveset, and the cutesy character designs have already proved to be insanely popular.

Inklings don't quite make my most wanted, due to having not played their game yet, but everything I've seen so far has got me excited for it's release.
Just hoping it does better than both Wonderful 101 and Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.; online multiplayer games only work if there's people playing.

Rayman Prediction: 22%
Rayman will (hopefully) do better than Shantae and Banjo in chance. If not we have all failed and deserve to be flogged. The question is how will he compare to them in want?

Nominations:
Vaati X 3
Wonder Red X 2

 

[Delzethin]

It's still a massive factor, even if they won't add them simply for promotional reasons.

But it doesn't change the fact that doing so could blow up in their faces spectacularly. For at least the next year or year and a half, the Inklings are high-risk high-reward. From the developers' standpoint, wouldn't it make more sense to focus on other characters who have just as much potential reward but with less risk involved? It doesn't seem like they'd have to worry about K. Rool or Isaac suddenly falling out of favor, at least...

 

[N3ON]

But it doesn't change the fact that doing so could blow up in their faces spectacularly. For at least the next year or year and a half, the Inklings are high-risk high-reward. From the developers' standpoint, wouldn't it make more sense to focus on other characters who have just as much potential reward but with less risk involved? It doesn't seem like they'd have to worry about K. Rool or Isaac suddenly falling out of favor, at least...

If they strike while the iron is hot they don't have to worry so much about it cooling off later, the sales goal would've already been largely set.

 

[Kenith]

Inkling:
Chance: 25%.

Like others have said, the Inkling's likelihood depends heavily on questions we don't have answers to, like how well Splatoon will sell. That being said, they are getting a lot of votes for DLC now, they clearly have potential (tons of it, actually; I can derive a moveset from a single trailer) and Nintendo seems to be making a big deal out of Splatoon; the fact Splatoon is getting not one, but three amiibos, over many other games is quite telling of this. So I don't think it's too unlikely.
But I may just think that way because...

Want: 100%.

I want them very very badly. I latched onto the idea of Inklings in Smash Bros. the moment Splatoon was revealed and I have no intention of letting go. I am also super hyped for Splatoon and, although I hate to admit it, it greatly upsets me to see people not interested in the game.
I considered taking points off since I haven't played Splatoon, but really, how good Splatoon is won't dictate how the Inklings play in Smash anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter.

-------------------------------------------------
Rayman prediction: 20.5%. I guess I should have expected Shantae to expect low ratings, but it still surprised me. Won't make that mistake with Rayman though. :D
-------------------------------------------------
Nominations:
Jill Valentine or Resident Evil character x3
Nightmare (Soulcalibur) x2

 

[Delzethin]

If they strike while the iron is hot they don't have to worry so much about it cooling off later, the sales goal would've already been largely set.

Perhaps. But if Splatoon doesn't turn out to be all that good (not saying I want it to, I mean of course I want a new IP to do well, but the chance is still there), it could still leave a bad taste in people's mouths.

We'll have to wait and see what ends up happening.

 

[N3ON]

Perhaps. But if Splatoon doesn't turn out to be all that good (not saying I want it to, I mean of course I want a new IP to do well, but the chance is still there), it could still leave a bad taste in people's mouths.

We'll have to wait and see what ends up happening.

I don't think quality is usually the biggest determinate of popularity. Dillon's games only ever got mediocre reviews and he was pretty popular before being AT'd. W101 scored generally less than most Nintendo games overall yet Wonder Red still has pretty decent popularity for a bomb that came out two years ago.

I think Splatoon would have to be pretty bad to sour people on Inklings, which seems fairly unlikely. Most bad press the game will get its likely already received what with the whole lack of voice chat debacle.

Most people seem to want Inkling because of their design, potential, and the fact they come from a new IP, none of which will change based on the reception of the game.

 

[ShinyRegice]

I know it's late, but...

Custom moves would've made balance 10x harder especially if there are doing more than 12 DLC characters.

Are you aware that Mewtwo not having custom moves makes him unbalanced by default compared to the rest of the cast? Just saying.

Inklings

Chance: 40% - People really seem to be placing these guys high on the ballot. However, I don't think they are the highest in voting for the ballot (I believe that's K. Rool, feel free to prove me wrong though!), so that already might hinder them. Also, because their game hasn't even come out yet, they don't have much for move set capabilities.

No it's Goku
Yeah I know, soon this joke won't be funny anymore...

2) Their moveset could cause FPS problems, you think ink everywhere in article form in a fighting game will just be peachy in the 3ds version? lol look what happened to bowser jr. i'd say that was a part of not giving him that moveset.

I really doubt it tbh, Sunshine was literally the only game where Bowser Jr. ever used his paintbrush then he always had been characterized like a mech user, not to mention his trophy is in the New Super Mario Bros. trophy box in the Wii U version, which clearly means he's inspired from his NSMB incarnations rather than his Sunshine one. I think it's safe to say that the Clown Car-based moveset as we know it now always had been how he was planned to be in Smash 4, though I admit the paintbrush idea possibly has been considered before being rejected due to being relevant to only one game and ignoring all games following it where he ditched it to use mech instead. At least he uses it for his Final Smash!

Inkling chances: 45%
To counter the "promotion" argument I'll just say I think that if Splatoon gets playable representation through DLC it won't be just because of "muh promotion" or "muh recency" but because Nintendo clearly acknowledges the IP as one of their flagship franchises. I mean, with the exception of Ice Climber and third-party IPs, all series with a playable character are either franchises Nintendo considers as one of their flagship ones (okay with the possible exception of Kid Icarus, but you know, Sakubias) or have standing-out historical relevance (Duck Hunt, G&W and, to an extent, R.O.B.). Is Splatoon "Nintendo flagship series" caliber? It's currently to early to tell, but all signs we currently have point to yes. The game is talked about in every single Nintendo Direct since E3 2014 when it was revealed, it is often talked about outside of Nintendo Directs as well, it gets a massive advertisement campaign, it's a game from a genre Nintendo almost never touches with a widely different approach from the genre's standards, and it gets its own amiibo series and special Wii U bundle for God's sake >_> in other words, Nintendo wants to hype the game as much as possible and wants it to succeed at all costs.

I have no doubt Nintendo is confident enough on their project to consider the game as Smash caliber, but there are a few unknown factors to not ignore. Will the game meet sales expectations? Will DLC support for Smash Bros. last long enough to not make an Inkling's inclusion in Smash feel like blatant advertisement? That said, the idea of a playable Inkling in Smash seems to make a lot of people enthusiastic, and this fan support could easily makes Nintendo and Sakurai even more confident on the game being Smash material.

Inkling want: 13%
I'm kinda indifferent towards the idea of a playable Inkling in Smash, and I still don't know if I want the game. It seems to have a cool single-player mode based towards platforming, and I love 3D platformers, on the other hand the game seems to be mostly multiplayer based and I doubt it will surpass Smash as my multiplayer game of choice. But considering all points sign to Nintendo considering the game as Smash material and their potentially fun moveset, it slightly turns towards positive.

(Insert 75% of original want score cut because no custom moves for Mewtwo rant here)

Rayman prediction: 13.80%
Considering he doesn't suffer from Banjo-Kazooie's owership by another rival company nor from Shantae's obscurity, I except him to do better in chance than them.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Skipping Inklings

Rayman Prediction: 14.44%
Magolor x5

 

[4theRECORD]

Inklings already? Pretty darn fast.
Then again, maybe it would be fun to rate them before the official release.

Inklings (Splatoon)
Chance:50%
I honestly don't know what to talk about this. They're DEFINATELY a shoo-in for Sm5sh, but whether or not they will be in Sm4sh DLC is something I was unable to put out an answer. On one hand they're new(not yet released in fact) and therefore we can't tell if it will really turn out good(think it will though), and the other hand it is heavily, heavily marketed. Playboy articles, plenty of presentation at many events, and amiibos. It's absolutely ridiculous. I like it, but it's something of a completely new level from Nintendo. Originally I thought they would be saved until next game, but now I'm not so sure.

Simply put, I don't know what to give them. But since I didn't want to do an abstain, I decided to give them a 50%. It could turn out either way.

Want:15%
What I want to say here is that I am not opposed to their inclusion in the future. But as of right now, they're too new for me to be that attached to them, or think they are Nintendo characters that must deserve to be in Smash. K.Rool, Issac, Ridley(yes I'm bringing him up)...some of the more minor characters like Ray would still be more deserving of a spot. Please, wait till next game, I'm pretty sure Splatoon would be a well established franchise by that point, or at least a sequel in the works announced at E3(sort of like Xenoblade was this gen), but this time around...I'd prefer it if you stayed quiet.

Unless if Splatoon actually manages to propell the WiiU forward and sells two million copies or something, then fine, but I doubt that'll happen.

Predictions:Rayman 35%
One of the few third party requests that is based on something other than a vocal fanbase.

Nominations:
Ray(Custom Robo) x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Inklings
Chance: 10%
It just comes down to if Nintendo really wants to promote the game by putting them in Smash. Despite the demand that some of the fans have for them, I think the main risk will be that they will be very divisive due to being in a game that hasn't been released yet. We don't know what legacy these characters have. So, I am going to be incredibly skeptical on this one.

Want: 0%
I will be angry if they made it in. Sure, they will be unique, but you are essentially putting in a character from a game that hasn't been released yet. I mean we had Roy in the past, but Fire Emblem was an established franchise by the time Melee came out. Here, this is a brand new IP. I would be livid if these guys made it in over established Nintendo characters like King K. Rool, Bandana Dee, etc.
Also, I hate the design of these guys and I am not a fan of their game so far. I think the Inklings look hideous and absolutely creepy. As for their game, I found it to be incredibly boring as more footage was being shown.
Maybe I will warm up to them when, I dunno, their actual game is released? I rather not support a new character who's game hasn't released yet and thus have no connection to.

Rayman Prediction: 31.77%
I bet more people will be confident to give him higher scores thanks to the leak.

Nominations: Phoenix Wright 5x