Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Strider_Bond00J]

I think I'll call it for this game. After 100, I'll go back to normal character speculation and HSC revision.
It was a hectic ride, seeing the sparks flying on this thread, and maybe I'll finish my time with this thread with a table of sorts that shows the scores I gave and my final stances on all the characters. It's not ready just yet, but hopefully it'll be completed one day.

-(Side note - 1 year since I joined Smashboards, yay! Now get back to school work)

 

[Scamper52596]

Isaac
Chance: 15.5%
I wasn't very confident in his chances before, but I'm even less confident now after we've already got three DLC characters since then with only a few conceivable slots left. Yeah, he's a popular candidate on the Internet forums, but the problem is that he's not very popular outside of them. If I asked anyone I know who plays video games if they knew who Isaac from Golden Sun was, they probably wouldn't. It seems like Sakurai is picking DLC characters that are well known; therefore, exciting most people who play Smash. I don't really see Isaac doing that. It doesn't help that he hasn't received any new installments to his franchise recently. I'll give the former Assist Trophy a score of 15.5%, which is a 22.5% drop from my original rating.
Without a future installment to Isaac's franchise, I just don't feel this character has what it takes...

Want: 42%
I don't personally care for him, but I wouldn't mind his inclusion. He would probably be a neat character, and he would make his fans happy.


Iwata Tribute
Chance: 23%
The idea of including a trophy, assist trophy, or even a playable character to honor Iwata is something I don't really think the developers would do, as cool as it would be. The possibility is still there, but the developers are probably thinking that if the fans want Iwata immortalized in Smash that they could make a Mii Fighter out of him to have him in their game forever. I'm not saying that to be rude; this is just what I think. I'm sure Nintendo will have a tribute to Iwata in the next Nintendo Direct, and they might feel that's enough. I'll give the concept of an Iwata Tribute in Smash a score of 23%.
It's a possibility...

Want: 50%
I'm fine either way. If Sakurai wants to put some kind of tribute in Smash to honor his former employer and friend, then I think that would be really cool. If not then I'll understand. I feel that it should be his decision.


DLC Predictions
I recently wrote up which characters/franchises I feel have the best DLC chances. Out of all of them I think only two or three will make the roster as our final DLC characters, but I can see any of these characters making it. Feel free to click the Spoiler tag to see my personal DLC character predictions that I feel have solid chances from this point onward.

Spoiler

The Mario Franchise: I'm a little iffy on this happening, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo shoehorned another Mario character onto the roster as DLC just because it's their flagship franchise. I feel that Paper Mario has the best chance, but we could always get surprised with a different Mario character.

The Legend of Zelda Franchise: It would either be Tetra or Toon Zelda. They're the most generally recognizable Zelda characters at this point with the Zelda game starring them on the Wii U. Not sure if this means anything, but it appears that WW content is going to be the biggest selling point for the new HW port coming soon.

The Donkey Kong Franchise: I would honestly be pretty surprised if Donkey Kong didn't get a DLC character. It's so highly requested. Of course it would either be King K. Rool or Dixie Kong. I'm not really sure which has the better chance (I don't think we'll get both), but I definitely think a new Donkey Kong character is on the table.

The Star Fox Franchise: If we're to get another veteran, it will more than likely be Wolf. It can go either way at this point. We might be done with veterans, or Sakurai might still have another up his sleeve.

New Franchises: This one was tricky for me since most, if not all, of the notable Nintendo franchises are already represented with playable characters. The main ones that I thought might get DLC characters are Splatoon and Rhythm Heaven. Splatoon because Nintendo is pushing the franchise, and Rhythm Heaven due to the unused content in the game (plus it seems quirky enough for Sakurai to do).

I'm going to abstain from throwing around possible characters for Smash 5's roster. It's a little too early, so I don't really know which possible characters to expect right now. Especially with Smash 4 still receiving DLC characters in the near future. We should at least wait until DLC is over for this iteration of Smash to start predicting characters for the next Smash.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Isaac

Chance: 65%
More likely than not, Isaac has fan popularity pushing him forward and nothing to hinder him particularly outside fear he won't sell to the casuals...but that didn't stop obscure Japan exclusive characters like Roy and Lucas returning as DLC.

Want: 80%
I personally don't care much for Isaac, or indeed Golden Sun, or even RPGs in general(they're not my bag outside Paper Mario)...but my sister is a huge fan of his, and he constantly ranked in her top three wants alongside Toad(it's in the genetics it seems) and Robin(who she got). Isaac would give her yet another character she adores, and for that I'll give him a big-ish want rating.

Iwata Tribute

Chance: 50%
Honestly no idea on it's likeliness. Iwata was a huge deal and a great friend, mentor and boss to Sakurai. A trophy is certainly possible, but I cannot see more than that and even that is up in the air to me.

Want: 100%
That said he was a great man and a huge part of Nintendo. I certainly wouldn't be against an Iwata tribute in the game.


Final SSB DLC Predictions:
K. Rool, Wolf, Isaac. Boring prediction, but who I feel has the best shots.


SSB5 prediction:
-Everyone returns from SSB4.
-They're not going to get rid of the legendary Pac-Man for crying out loud, he's a bigger deal than the other third parties combined.
-Doc's been in two games now. I don't think he'll be perma cut now...
-Lucina and Dark Pit will probably stay too or at worse get added back as DLC for SSB5.

-Ice Climbers likely to be brought back providing no more technical issues hold them back.

Newcomers:
Wii U's big names so far:

-Dixie Kong(Tropical Freeze)
-Captain Toad(Captain Toad Treasure Tracker/3D World)
-Inklings(Splatoon)
-Impa(Hyrule Warriors popularity boost)
-Bandana Dee(Rainbow Curse)
-Wonder Red(Wonderful 101)

Likely additions:
-Corrin
-Gen 7 Pokemon
-An Animal Crossing character; most likely Isabelle
-A new Kid Icarus character. If Sakurai's the director still.
-Ridley due to huge fan demand in the ballots.
-Paper Mario due to Paper Jam.
-Chibi Robo(Chibi Robo: Zip Lash)
-Rayman. Trophy addition this time and general excitement from that 'leak' probably didn't go totally unnoticed by Ubisoft.

Slimmer chance additions:
-Monita
-Dillon

I'd like to say Meowth and Samurai Goroh, but although both pretty popular, neither are getting in much to my personal annoyance.

 

[FalKoopa]

ISAAC:

CHANCE: 65%
Not a whole lot has changed, so my rating is the same-y.

WANT: 100%
I finally beat the Lost Age in the mean time, so and want has soared. Too bad I can't go over 100%, because it's definitely OVER 9000.
​

IWATA TRIBUTE:

CHANCE: 33%
Something as simple as a trophy would be nice and can be done with little work.

WANT: 100%
He deserves to be remembered as the man who made Smash a reality, having a hand in Melee, Brawl and Smash 4. He presided over Nintendo's highest profits ever and touched the lives of millions of gamers everywhere. Unlike the vast majority of higher-ups of various companies, people actually grew attached to him through the Nintendo Directs, and it was amply shown by the massive outpouring across the internet from gamers and developers when his death was announced. A simple gesture like this would be very nice.

"Directly to you"​

 

[Smasher 101]

@XenoBrawler610 wins for Nabbit, @Speedwagon wins for Gallade.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Golden Son (wait that'd be Matthew or not?)
Anyway, Isaac:
Chance: 50%
Popularity, moveset potential.
He has the credentials, now it's up to Sakurai to ignore those and include another Fire Emblem character (hopefully Aqua)

Want: 20%
Gimme Aqua
I don't care in the slightest

An Iwata-tribute directly to us:
Chance: 50%
Depends on if Sakurai deems it appropriate to include it.

Want: 100%
Smash5
Newcomers:
Dixie Kong
Captain Toad
Impa
Bandana Dee
Inklings
Azura (depends if a new FE gets released or not)
Isabelle (Animal Crossing mascot)
Gen X Pokémon
Takamaru
Rhythm Heaven
Monita
Rayman

That's all I can think of honestly, the rest will be decided through relevance I think.

Lana x5

 

[TriforceOfAura]

You get 5 nominations each day, divided as you choose. Every time you rate, just plug the character you want. May I assume you're giving today's to Riolu?

@Drason, don't worry, I got yours.

Yes, I am.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Isaac
chance 50%
Will goldensun's strange existence as a series keep him out or will popularity. With the ballot existing i think his chances are decent.

Want 70%
Very very few characters have as much potential

Iwata tribute
chance abstain
want 100%

Prediction
tiki 7.5%
Moonstruck blossom 13%

Noms
next smash has new director 5

 

[LIQUID12A]

Isaac C. Clarke

Chances: 50%

The guy is popular, he's requested, has a ton of support behind his name, it's all there. No Assist Trophy does boost his chances, as does that one Golden Sun song still on Norfair for some reason, but I'm not completely sold on him being a guarantee.

Want: 40%

I honestly don't care for the series or the character, but the potential for a different type of swordsman I will admit is unique.

Iwata tribute

Chance: 50%

I...honestly don't know how this would go, but seeing as Iwata had a big part in Smash...

Want: 100%

I would totally want it.

Predictions

...oh boy.

DLC Characters prediction:

Spoiler: barring the ones we have in

I am honestly only expecting King K. Rool as of now. I think speculation is too wild to consider Isaac or even Wolf a guarantee.

Abstaining from speculating on Sma5h.

Nominate: Metroid Prime stage x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Isaac's Chance: 48%
Had those poll results not be compiled together to show he's up there in support, I would have rated him much lower. His biggest problem is that he is a bit on the obscure side and hasn't had a game in a long time. He has some good ballot support, so I wouldn't count him out, but I wonder how much the general public really know of him outside of "the kid who shot out giant hands in Brawl" and be marketable.

Isaac's Want: 50%
I'm ok with the guy, he comes from a new series and has some potential to be very unique. His giant hand abilities would be the most interesting part of his abilities and could lead to some unique gimmicks. Of course, he's also yet another swordsman, so minus points for that.

----------
Iwata Tribute's Chance: 10%
It just doesn't seem like something developes would do with a game that's already released to the public.

Iwata Tribute's Want: 5%
I'm not sure if tacking on some random item to a game as paid DLC is the best way to honor a person's passing. If you ask me, video games are a trivial thing and I feel it'd be a bit tasteless to shoehorn it in. I wouldn't really be opposed to a trophy, I always thought the most influential people in the company should have had one living or otherwise, or an "In Memory of" message in the credits, but that's about as far as it should go.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Isaac
Chance: 15%
I will quote what I said before because I don't think much has changed.

Isaac
Chance: 15%
The positives with Isaac are that he comes from a game with a cult status, his demand, and his uniqueness. The latter two things are really important. Since Isaac is a pretty popular choice, he will pretty well in the ballot. His uniqueness with his psyenergy makes him stand out as a fighter, another thing that helps in his case.

However, there are also three things going against him, namely being a newcomer, having little content in Smash, and perhaps even Dawn Dawn. Newcomers will definitely take a lot of time to create as their moveset needs to be created from scratch. Having little content in Smash is also very concerning... perhaps Sakurai thought that Golden Sun didn't deserve a lot of content in Smash? Things look bleak if a pretty major franchise didn't get too much content. Lastly, maybe Dark Dawn's failure was the cause of Golden Sun getting little content; maybe Nintendo and Sakurai think that the franchise isn't worth too much investing on (I should mention Camelot has stated that creating a Golden Sun game takes a lot of work and it's troubling for their financials apparently).

Although he his a unique sword fighter in that he can use magic, I think Robin potential sapped that away from him.

Want: 50%
I have Golden Sun on my Wii U, but I haven't played it yet. I will be happy for his fans, though.

Iwata Tribute
Chance: Abstain
I can't rate this.
Want: 100%
Let us honor a great man.

DLC Predictions
At this point... I think Wolf will make it in as well as another character. Other than that, I dunno. I think we will get Wolf and a ballot character.

I am going to abstain from SSB5 Predictions because I want to speculate on that game when the time comes.

Tiki Prediction: 6.14%
People are sick of Fire Emblem.

Moonstruck Blossom Prediction: 7.20%
I dunno.

Hey! More nominations!
Nominations: Guile's Theme 10x

 

[Laniv]

Isaac:

Chance: 60%
He's no guarantee, but there's probably a good reason his Assist Trophy was cut.

Want: 50%
I've never played a Golden Sun game...


Iwata Tribute:

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%
I don't see why not.


DLC Predictions:
Wolf
King K. Rool

Abstain from Sma5h prediction

Predictions for Tiki: 5% Chance, 24% Want
Predictions for Moonstruck Blossom: 36% Chance, 79% Want

Nominate Isabelle x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Interesting ratings we have, I think I'm going to give it my all this time around.

Isaac Chance:
12.5%

Yeah, when I rated him back originally, I certainly overrated him quite a bit when the ballot was announced. I was very brief on Isaac's chances. I feel he's pretty overrated in terms of chances, so I am being serious about my rating this time. I really want to emphasize the main issue he has with his inclusion.

He's pretty much set on terms of moveset potential and already has the demand to get considered yet again. I am still not confident in Isaac, his demand doesn't magically make his main issue go away.

Sakurai has stated before that "characters and series that have no plans for future releases, or a low possibility of future releases, inevitably will be considered lower priority." Golden Sun is likely one of those franchises who he considered to have a bleak future. Camelot has stated that if there was enough demand for a Golden Sun 4, they would do it, but not much demand regarding a sequel has spawned since. (character demand doesn't count) Even K. Rool fans have managed to get Retro Studio's attention when it comes to K. Rool coming back, and the demand for a new GS low in comparison.

Camelot is a small development studio and only able to focus and develop one game at a time, unlike others like Retro Studios and Intelligent Systems who are able to develop multiple games at the same time due to their massive success in many of their games. Camelot's current focus is on the Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash for the Wii U. With no new GS currently in development, Sakurai will likely consider Isaac a lower priority again since the franchise's state hasn't changed since the debut of Dark Dawn. (Dark Dawn itself didn't reach the high expectations Camelot was hoping for)

Isaac's biggest opportunity in getting in Smash was during Brawl, when the series peaked large popularity. He did have the demand and moveset potential at the time. But despite of all of the things GS has accomplished, the franchise has gotten just an AT and a music track. Let's also bring up the this quote straight from the Brawl dojo:

When they’re all lined up like this, it becomes obvious that there is roughly 6-year blank before and after Pikmin. While there have been big series since then like "Animal Crossing," "Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day," and "Wii Sports" it does seem that coming up with a completely new character-driven series has gotten more difficult recently.

Among the many new series newcomers he added, he did not consider GS to be big enough to be playable. The biggest opportunity vanished, and Sakurai did not think he was worthy for character, but instead as an AT.

The matters get worse for Smash 4, little content has merged in the game this time. The only content GS has managed to get is two music tracks, getting the same treatment as many other C-Tier list series like Style Savvy, Wonderful 101, Glory of Heracles and many other series. It's likely that his opinion hasn't changed with Isaac since deciding Smash 4's roster, and I doubt that he will somehow change his mind even if he considers Isaac for the 3rd time with the ballot.

Isaac came at a really bad time. With Camelot focusing on a different project, the bleak future for the franchise, and Sakurai past treatment of the GS series in Smash, I feel he's one of the less likely characters to get chosen. Ballot demand isn't going to change his position on Isaac, his franchise needs more notable factors to be a playable character.
_____________________

Iwata Representation Chance:
80%

I think we'll be getitng Iwata in some form of content. It could be through the inclusion of Balloon Fighter, or maybe a Iwata trophy, or maybe a special Iwata costume. The death of Iwata has made a large enough impact with the many tweets Iwata-san to get the attention of Sakurai. Sakurai even addresses Iwata's death on Twitter, stating he was a great man to work with. There is no doubt in my mind that this impact has a notable influence on the content he adds as DLC. He could add new pre-ballot content on Iwata last minute in the same vein Sonic was added last minute in Brawl.

I'll be a bit surprised if we don't get any content of Iwata whatsover, because now is the best time to dedicate Iwata.

SSB4 DLC predictions:
1. Wolf
2. Chorus Kids
3. Dixie Kong
4. Professor Layton
5. Rayman
6. Young Link
7. Pichu
8. Ivysaur
9. Squirtle
10. Snake
11. King K. Rool
12. Bayonetta

SSB5 Predictions:
These guys I'm certain will happen, not counting a potential SSB4 NX port, but a new Smash game with a new engine:
1. Isabelle
2. Tom Nook
3. Inkling
4. New Fire Emblem character
5. New Xenoblade character
6. New Pokemon character
7. Takamaru
8. A last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game. (Dark Pit and Lucina, for example)
9. Another last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game.
10. Another last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game.
11. Another historical surprise character. (Someone like Balloon Fighter or Jumpman for example)
12. A Rhythm Heaven character (if Chorus Kids don't get in as DLC)

The rest I can't say will happen. Lots of things change for franchises as the years go by, so I'll have to wait to see if I can bet on it in SSB5.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

SSB4 DLC predictions:
1. Wolf
2. Chorus Kids
3. Dixie Kong
4. Professor Layton
5. Rayman
6. Young Link
7. Pichu
8. Ivysaur
9. Squirtle
10. Snake
11. King K. Rool
12. Bayonetta

Are you really expecting 12 DLC characters? Most members are expecting only 2-4 characters.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Some of them will probably make it, if some of them don't happen, then I'll just change my predictions. Simple as that.

 

[TallT]

Isaac:

Chance: 50%

Want: 20%

Originally I gave Isaac a 10% want but I decided to give him 20% this time. I would only personally want him if his moveset consisted mostly of psynergy attacks and if he rarely used his sword.

DLC Prediction
Wolf, King K. Rool, Isaac, Bandanna Dee

 

[Deleted member]

@XenoBrawler610 wins for Nabbit, @Speedwagon wins for Gallade.

Holy crap, i just won again.

Both Isaac and Iwata tribute:
Chance:60%
Want:100%
There's only 2 characters that would make me more happier than Isaac.
As for Iwata, i think a trophy would be a perfect choice.

Abstaining for everything else today.
I will let you with this image from the Isaac thread:

Credit goes to @ Skyblade12 and @FalKoopa.

 

[Balgorxz]

Isaac
25% chance, why? the only way that he can get in its by camelot approaching the smash team/sakurai to add him apart from votes since they are a nintendo branch they might get their part but he is incredibly unpopular on japan, so that decreases his chances.
Want:100%

Iwata tribute:
Chance:30%
Want:50%

 

[Erureido]

I'm going to abstain from Isaac. I don't feel too interested in talking about him since it's clear enough he is one of the more likely candidates for a DLC inclusion due to his popularity, and though it was odd that he was included as an Assist Trophy instead of a playable fighter in Brawl when Golden Sun was at its peak popularity, I'm convinced this could lead to a surprise later on (perhaps his inclusion could promote the next Golden Sun game?). As for a want rating, I've never played the Golden Sun series, so it would be hard for me to say whether I strongly support his inclusion or not.

As for the Iwata Tribute? That I will discuss.

Iwata Tribute

Chance: 70%

I think this is likely. Satoru Iwata was a highly important figure in his time working for Nintendo, especially when it came to the likes of Earthbound, Kirby, and Pokemon Gold/Silver. He was also well-involved with Smash Bros since Melee. With all of the great things Iwata has done over the years, I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai would implement something like a trophy featuring a 3D model of Iwata (or Iwata's Mii) through a future update or some other way of paying tribute to him.

Want: 100%

I really think this would be a nice addition for the game for reasons I previously stated. A trophy is what I'm especially interested in seeing.

The Next DLC Characters

Here are my guesses:

Spoiler: DLC Characters

Wolf
King K. Rool

This is assuming there are truly only 2 DLC slots left, but hey, there's still a possibility that there could be more characters planned.

Smash Bros 5 Roster Prediction

I'm going to abstain from this since I still think this is too early to discuss.

Now for a closing statement:

Well everyone, today is the day I am going to retire from the RTC thread. There are busy matters I need to take care of in the future, and so to focus on such business, my adventure on this thread will come to an end. I was originally thinking about retiring yesterday considering that Gallade is my favorite Pokemon (my username even reflects that), and finally having the opportunity to discuss his Smash Bros situation, I thought it'd be a good day to retire. However, after noticing the next day was going to be the 100th day of this thread with a special Iwata Tribute discussion, I figured it would be better to have my final discussion on that day due to the circumstances.That said, it's been quite the ride. Thank you all!

 

[Autumn ♫]

Isaac
Chance:65%
He's got a large following, amazing moveset potential, will be a new IP, and generally fits into the game really well. Don't know how to say it any shorter.

Want:60%
I'd think he'd be cool and I think he definitely deserves it, but it would hurt if he wasn't playable.

Iwata Tribute
Chance:Abstain
Want:100%
Iwata did a lot for Nintendo and Sakurai, and I'd love to see him tributed in some way.

DLC: I'm expecting K.Rool and Wolf, and think that a Zelda character (preferably Vaati), Isaac, and maybe Snake are fairly likely.

Smash 5 Predictions?
I'll abstain, it's way too early to even really think about right now.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Interesting ratings we have, I think I'm going to give it my all this time around.

Isaac Chance:
12.5%

Yeah, when I rated him back originally, I certainly overrated him quite a bit when the ballot was announced. I was very brief on Isaac's chances. I feel he's pretty overrated in terms of chances, so I am being serious about my rating this time. I really want to emphasize the main issue he has with his inclusion.

He's pretty much set on terms of moveset potential and already has the demand to get considered yet again. I am still not confident in Isaac, his demand doesn't magically make his main issue go away.

Sakurai has stated before that "characters and series that have no plans for future releases, or a low possibility of future releases, inevitably will be considered lower priority." Golden Sun is likely one of those franchises who he considered to have a bleak future. Camelot has stated that if there was enough demand for a Golden Sun 4, they would do it, but not much demand regarding a sequel has spawned since. (character demand doesn't count) Even K. Rool fans have managed to get Retro Studio's attention when it comes to K. Rool coming back, and the demand for a new GS low in comparison.

Camelot is a small development studio and only able to focus and develop one game at a time, unlike others like Retro Studios and Intelligent Systems who are able to develop multiple games at the same time due to their massive success in many of their games. Camelot's current focus is on the Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash for the Wii U. With no new GS currently in development, Sakurai will likely consider Isaac a lower priority again since the franchise's state hasn't changed since the debut of Dark Dawn. (Dark Dawn itself didn't reach the high expectations Camelot was hoping for)

Isaac's biggest opportunity in getting in Smash was during Brawl, when the series peaked large popularity. He did have the demand and moveset potential at the time. But despite of all of the things GS has accomplished, the franchise has gotten just an AT and a music track. Let's also bring up the this quote straight from the Brawl dojo:



Among the many new series newcomers he added, he did not consider GS to be big enough to be playable. The biggest opportunity vanished, and Sakurai did not think he was worthy for character, but instead as an AT.

The matters get worse for Smash 4, little content has merged in the game this time. The only content GS has managed to get is two music tracks, getting the same treatment as many other C-Tier list series like Style Savvy, Wonderful 101, Glory of Heracles and many other series. It's likely that his opinion hasn't changed with Isaac since deciding Smash 4's roster, and I doubt that he will somehow change his mind even if he considers Isaac for the 3rd time with the ballot.

Isaac came at a really bad time. With Camelot focusing on a different project, the bleak future for the franchise, and Sakurai past treatment of the GS series in Smash, I feel he's one of the less likely characters to get chosen. Ballot demand isn't going to change his position on Isaac, his franchise needs more notable factors to be a playable character.
_____________________

Iwata Representation Chance:
80%

I think we'll be getitng Iwata in some form of content. It could be through the inclusion of Balloon Fighter, or maybe a Iwata trophy, or maybe a special Iwata costume. The death of Iwata has made a large enough impact with the many tweets Iwata-san to get the attention of Sakurai. Sakurai even addresses Iwata's death on Twitter, stating he was a great man to work with. There is no doubt in my mind that this impact has a notable influence on the content he adds as DLC. He could add new pre-ballot content on Iwata last minute in the same vein Sonic was added last minute in Brawl.

I'll be a bit surprised if we don't get any content of Iwata whatsover, because now is the best time to dedicate Iwata.

SSB4 DLC predictions:
1. Wolf
2. Chorus Kids
3. Dixie Kong
4. Professor Layton
5. Rayman
6. Young Link
7. Pichu
8. Ivysaur
9. Squirtle
10. Snake
11. King K. Rool
12. Bayonetta

SSB5 Predictions:
These guys I'm certain will happen, not counting a potential SSB4 NX port, but a new Smash game with a new engine:
1. Isabelle
2. Tom Nook
3. Inkling
4. New Fire Emblem character
5. New Xenoblade character
6. New Pokemon character
7. Takamaru
8. A last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game. (Dark Pit and Lucina, for example)
9. Another last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game.
10. Another last-minute clone from an established franchise with an upcoming or recently released game.
11. Another historical surprise character. (Someone like Balloon Fighter or Jumpman for example)
12. A Rhythm Heaven character (if Chorus Kids don't get in as DLC)

The rest I can't say will happen. Lots of things change for franchises as the years go by, so I'll have to wait to see if I can bet on it in SSB5.
x5 Balloon Fighter

No Isaac fan, just playing the Dijinn's advocate here:

1. Lower priority is the key word here.
While this does mean Isaac isn't an unstoppable force, though it means he's lower priority.
This isn't a ban on all unmuhrelevant characters.

This is how people misunderstand Sakurai, by exaggerating.

2. This argument can be applied to literally every character that existed pre-Brawl but didn't get in this time.
Krystal? Missed the Brawl boat, never gets in. K. Rool? Missed the Brawl boat, never gets in.

3. Rhythm Heaven didn't get any content, Bandana Dee didn't get a trophy and Captain Toad got its trophy shared with the rest of the Toad Brigade

4. The Ballot is a big chance to show Isaac's support.

An actual fan could do this better than me though.

 

[Apollyon]

All right, time to vote for my boy (not Roy) again. Sadly I think I missed the previous voting period for Isaac, but oh well. Let's get started.

Isaac

Chance: 85%
You may be wondering why I am rating Isaac so high as far as chance goes, and frankly I am not the best person to make the case. The only thing that I will say is I personally believe is that Isaac has fulfilled all of Sakurai's criteria to become a fighter. Isaac certainly has the backing and more importantly in all of smash bros, we currently only have four characters representing the Game Boy Advance/ GameCube era, and all of those were from the GameCube! (Villager, Toon Link, Bowser Jr., and Olimar)

Want: 100%
All it takes is one look at my avatar and you know that I want Isaac to be DLC over any other candidate.

Iwata Tribute
Chance: 40%
Going to rate this a little low simply due to the fact that as a company, I cannot see Nintendo doing anything like this, especially this long after Iwata's passing.

Want: 95%
... With that said, I am certainly not against any tribute to Iwata. He was a genius who defined an entire generation of gamers.

FUTURE DLC:
In this order:
Wolf
Issac/K.Rool
K.Rool/Issac
Perhaps Snake.

I might edit this later with more reasons, but for now, this shall do.

 

[DJ3DS]

Isaac:

Chance - 25%

This is actually fairly high from me. I view Isaac as one of the front-runners for the ballot. Why only 25% then? I only expect 2 more characters, and between Wolf and King K Rool I think he has his work cut out for him especially given his apparent lack of popularity in Japan.

Want - 50%

Cool enough character; and a fanbase I support. I don't honestly expect to see him this game but hopefully I am wrong, and if not then I will definitely support him for the next game. Hopefully his popularity in the ballot convinces Camelot to make a new game, the success of which brings him into SSB5.

Iwata Tribute:

Chance - 25%

I don't see particularly strong reasons for or against putting a tribute into a pre-existing game. I wouldn't expect anything more substantial than perhaps a trophy of his Mii or something though, and certainly not putting in Balloon Fighter or the sort of thing people are suggesting.

Want - 50%

Would be a nice thing to do, but I don't really care either way.

DLC Predictions:

Wolf and King K Rool

My expectations for the ballot are extremely low, and these two are the characters to me who I expect to take the two slots I predict available. Both are extremely popular globally, first party characters with nothing standing in their way of inclusion.

SSB5:

Inklings are a decent shout. If Prime 4 comes out and stars Sylux in a major role, I'd say it has a decent shot too. Isaac and Bandana Dee could benefit from the ballot and appear. I predict quite a few characters won't return, namely all the clones. I'm not sure on Greninja's chances either, and think most of the DLC characters we have so far probably won't return. Smash Ballot Winners probably stand more of a chance particularly if they are complete newcomers.

If King K Rool doesn't make it into either SSB4 or SSB5, I will officially give up predicting stuff.

 

[BluePikmin11]

No Isaac fan, just playing the Dijinn's advocate here:

1. Lower priority is the key word here.
While this does mean Isaac isn't an unstoppable force, though it means he's lower priority.
This isn't a ban on all unmuhrelevant characters.

2. This argument can be applied to literally every character that existed pre-Brawl but didn't get in this time.
Krystal? Missed the Brawl boat, never gets in. K. Rool? Missed the Brawl boat, never gets in.

Yeah, which is why I said lower priority rather than never happening, hence the 12.5% rating.

3. Rhythm Heaven didn't get any content, Bandana Dee didn't get a trophy and Captain Toad got its trophy shared with the rest of the Toad Brigade

This is moreso referring to new unrepresented franchises. And there is existing content for Rhythm Heaven, it has more representation than GS had the last two Smash games, and has evidence under its favor to be in a better position than Isaac.

4. The Ballot is a big chance to show Isaac's support.

He's been aware of Isaac's demand since Brawl, yet he didn't get in two times in a row. What makes the situation different with the ballot? Sure the demand is likely louder, but it doesn't mean he'll easily change his mind purely because of demand.

 

[LousyTactician]

Isaac

Chance: 40%

He's at the top of most polls, is highly requested, isn't present in the game as an assist trophy anymore, and I think would have a unique move-set in the game.

Want: 95%

He's among my top 10 most wanted fighters easily, I think he'd make a great addition to the roster, and while Fire and Wind are still my favorite elements, I'm gaining an ever-increasing fondness for Earth.

Iwata Tribute

Chance: 15%

It's possible, but I personally don't see it happening. There were quite a few tributes for our dearly departed CEO already, and I can't really think what form such a tribute would take in Smash.

Want: 75%

Iwata is one of the few corporate CEOs I genuinely respect, and I think Ninty presenting some kind of tribute to him via Smash DLC months after his sad departure would be a very heart-warming way of showing that everyone still remembers him.

SSB5 Prediction

I personally think it's too early to make any kind of predictions, but this is the Smash fandom I'm talking about, so I'll give what I think is a reasonably modest, likely 100% correct prediction.

In the announcement trailer for SSB5 King K. Rool will appear riding on top of Ridely, who is wearing Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagaan sunglasses, while a giant horde of newcomers runs in a massive stampede behind them, including, but not limited to: Reggie Fils-Aime, Goku, and Shrek. The convention where this is announced will subsequently be filled to the brim with lizards and other reptilian creatures, many of them being poisonus, with the slogan, 'Unleash The Beast' appearing in giant flaming red letters all throughout said convention. For good measure enraged bulls will be set free throughout the convention too.

I think this is a fairly modest guess at what will happen.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Issac:

Chance: 33%

He's still one of the more popular choices on the Ballot but I don't know.

Want:50%

Iwata Tribute

Chance: 50% It depends really. Maybe a conquest or something.

Want: 90%

He was a pure genius and one of the developers who helped gaming.

DLC Predictions:

The only I'm sure of right now is K. Rool.

SSB5 Roster predictions:

-Most SSB4 characters returning.
-Wolf, and Ice Climbers return.
-Lucina, Ryu, and Dr. Mario cut.


Newcomers:

Inklings
King. K Rool(If he's not DLC)
New FE protagonist
Rhythm Heaven character
Takamaru
Zelda Character
Samurai Goroh

If SSB5 does happen it's most likely going to have less than 10 newcomers.

Predictions:

Tiki: 1.45%

Moonstruck Blossom: 5.67%

Nomination:

Wolf Rerate x5.

 

[Apollyon]

Yeah, which is why I said lower priority rather than never happening, hence the 12.5% rating.


He's been aware of Isaac's demand since Brawl, yet he didn't get in two times in a row. What makes the situation different with the ballot? Sure the demand is likely louder, but it doesn't mean he'll easily change his mind purely because of demand.

Just going to point something out, You act like not being in Brawl = zero chance of Isaac coming to smash. If that is the case, then shouldn't K. Rool have no chance as well? What about Dixie Kong? Heck, if we are saying that being excluded from a smash game means no chance of reentry, then shouldn't Ice Climbers, Snake, and Wolf never come back as well?

My point being if you discredit one character over being "excluded" from a Smash game, you are bashing everyone's Ballot picks pre-2008. Please try to be equal in your character bashing please.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Just going to point something out, You act like not being in Brawl = zero chance of Isaac coming to smash. If that is the case, then shouldn't K. Rool have no chance as well? What about Dixie Kong? Heck, if we are saying that being excluded from a smash game means no chance of reentry, then shouldn't Ice Climbers, Snake, and Wolf never come back as well?

My point being if you discredit one character over being "excluded" from a Smash game, you are bashing everyone's Ballot picks pre-2008. Please try to be equal in your character bashing please.

That's not the case, I didn't say that he had a 0% chance, but a pretty low chance in general based on what Sakurai said about series with an improbable future and past treatment of the GS in Smash and the fact Camelot isn't making a new GS game right now. There are multiple things that make his inclusion improbable and not just that.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

That's not the case, I didn't say that he had a 0% chance, but a pretty low chance in general based on what Sakurai said about series with an improbable future and past treatment of the GS in Smash and the fact Camelot isn't making a new GS game right now. There are multiple things that make his inclusion improbable and not just that.

That was when he deciding the base game's roster. The ballot is a different thing.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Sakurai never said anything that implied he felt Golden Sun didn't have any characters worth being a fighter what he said specifically is that "One thing that was kind of a challenge is that we haven't had a lot of new characters from Nintendo since Captain Olimar [that could work well in a fighting game]; a lot of games have been Mario titles or new iterations of existing series.", which clearly designates characters created post-Olimar and pre-Brawl (like Starfy), of which Isaac and Golden Sun are not part of, having been released before Pikmin. He is also referring to fighting potential, not merit, like originally thought. Sakurai's opinions about Golden Sun are unknown at this time.

Isaac
Chance: 15.5%
I wasn't very confident in his chances before, but I'm even less confident now after we've already got three DLC characters since then with only a few conceivable slots left. Yeah, he's a popular candidate on the Internet forums, but the problem is that he's not very popular outside of them. If I asked anyone I know who plays video games if they knew who Isaac from Golden Sun was, they probably wouldn't.

Roy was never a majorly iconic Nintendo character and he managed to get in purely based on Internet fan demands so I'm not really sure casual obscurity is the factor that is going to stop Isaac.

Regardless, Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

 

[BluePikmin11]

That was when he deciding the base game's roster. The ballot is a different thing.

The same can possibly apply to the ballot too. I don't see his philosophy with how he chooses newcomers changing. The ballot isn't going to solve Isaac's main problems.

Sakurai never said anything that implied he felt Golden Sun didn't have any characters worth being a fighter what he said specifically is that "One thing that was kind of a challenge is that we haven't had a lot of new characters from Nintendo since Captain Olimar [that could work well in a fighting game]; a lot of games have been Mario titles or new iterations of existing series.", which clearly designates characters created post-Olimar and pre-Brawl (like Starfy), of which Isaac and Golden Sun are not part of, having been released before Pikmin. He is also referring to fighting potential, not merit, like originally thought.

He said before and after Pikmin, read the quote again. Golden Sun is among those franchises that released shortly before Pikmin's release.

Golden Sun was among those franchises that had move set potential, decent franchise popularity, and the demand to get in as playable, yet Camelot and Sakurai negotiated each other just for an AT appearance in Brawl. If those same merits supporters had readdressed 2 Smash games in a row wasn't enough to get included in Brawl, then he will likely decline the idea of Isaac again even with the ballot.

Roy was never a majorly iconic Nintendo character and he managed to get in purely based on Internet fan demands so I'm not really sure casual obscurity is the factor that is going to stop Isaac.

Roy got in Melee because he was a feasible clone of Marth back in Melee development. He's a different matter from Isaac.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

The same can possibly apply to the ballot too. I don't see his philosophy with how he chooses newcomers changing. The ballot isn't going to solve Isaac's main problems.

He said before and after Pikmin, read the quote again. Golden Sun is among those franchises that released shortly before Pikmin's release.

When they’re all lined up like this, it becomes obvious that there is roughly 6-year blank before and after Pikmin. While there have been big series since then like "Animal Crossing," "Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day," and "Wii Sports" it does seem that coming up with a completely new character-driven series has gotten more difficult recently

The whole 6 year gap before and after Pikmin refers to the fact that throughout the history of all the playable characters (hence "when they're all lined up like this), there has been a 6 year gap before and after Pikmin. The latter part of his quote is referring to the fact, as shown by the bolded parts that he has trouble finding post-Pikmin franchises worthy of being represented as playable characters. There was no Brawl-era quote referring to him thinking that any pre-Pikmin franchises were unworthy of being playable.

Golden Sun was among those franchises that had move set potential, decent franchise popularity, and the demand to get in as playable, yet Camelot and Sakurai negotiated each other just for an AT appearance in Brawl. If those merits he had wasn't enough to get included in Brawl, then he will likely decline the idea of Isaac again even with the ballot.

Except that unlike pre-Smash 4, fanservice is far more emphasized than before with Sakurai saying that from now one it will be fanservice. Whilst Isaac is far from guranteed to be in, saying that his chances are the same as before Smash 4 when the emphasis has clearly changed to his advantages doesn't make any sense. He is not a shoo-in, but merely at a better position now than ever.

Roy got in Melee because he was a feasible clone of Marth back in Melee development. He's a different matter from Isaac.

I was clearly talking about Smash 4 obviously. And no, the reason why Sakurai specifically stated he included Roy was solely because of popularity. He never stated anything about his veteran status, which kinda makes sense consideirng veteran status means nothing if, in the case of Young Link, you're the only characters who wasn't just merely not planned for Brawl, but ouright scrapped in addition to being an unpopular Smash character (none of which applies to Roy).

 

[Skyblade12]

Isaac
Chance: 100% He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two. Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters.

Want: 100%

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

The same can possibly apply to the ballot too. I don't see his philosophy with how he chooses newcomers changing. The ballot isn't going to solve Isaac's main problems.

Yes, it can possibly apply to the ballot too, but I doubt it. Since he is asking suggestions from the fans instead of deciding the newcomers completely himself, he has to make some changes to his philosophy.

 

[TallT]

Isaac
Chance: 100% He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two. Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters.

Want: 100%

Oh the irony.

 

[Troykv]

Isaac:

Chance: Abstain

So many things in consideration makes his chance inconsistent

Want: 50%

I'm okay with him

Iwata Tribute:

Chance: 50%

A flip coin

Want: 50%

Depend. What could be?

DLC Roster:

Almost shoo ins:

- Wolf
- K. Rool

Other possible options and personal predictions:

- Bandana Waddle Dee
- Isaac
- Dixie Kong
- Micaiah (maybe? I forgot the other characters to put here xD)

SSB5 Roster:

Mmm.. Is still soon to me.

Predictions:

Tiki: 5.7%
Moonstruck Blossom (oh?): 5%

Nominations:

Rerate!Micaiah x5

_________

All right, time to vote for my boy (not Roy) again. Sadly I think I missed the previous voting period for Isaac, but oh well. Let's get started.

Isaac certainly has the backing and more importantly in all of smash bros, we currently only have four characters representing the Game Boy Advance/ GameCube era, and all of those were from the GameCube! (Villager, Toon Link, Bowser Jr., and Olimar)

And Roy (Our Boy (?) ) ? He is a GBA Character

 

[BluePikmin11]

The whole 6 year gap before and after Pikmin refers to the fact that throughout the history of all the playable characters (hence "when they're all lined up like this), there has been a 6 year gap before and after Pikmin. The latter part of his quote is referring to the fact, as shown by the bolded parts that he has trouble finding post-Pikmin franchises worthy of being represented as playable characters. There was no Brawl-era quote referring to him thinking that any pre-Pikmin franchises were unworthy of being playable.

He could be referring to pre-Pikmin too, since Animal Crossing was a franchise that originally debuted April 2001, months before Pikmin and Golden Sun's release.

I'll give you proof.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Crossing_(video_game)

It was originally published for the Nintendo 64 in Japan on April 14, 2001.

Golden Sun's original release was in August 1, 2001, between AC's and Pikmin's. I'm sure he's referring to before and after, and he is in the gaps of franchises that didn't get in as playable in Brawl.

Except that unlike pre-Smash 4, fanservice is far more emphasized than before with Sakurai saying that from now one it will be fanservice. Whilst Isaac is far from guranteed to be in, saying that his chances are the same as before Smash 4 when the emphasis has clearly changed to his advantages doesn't make any sense. He is not a shoo-in, but merely at a better position now than ever.

What about the possibility of fan-service being something else entirely? It's not clear just yet. Yeah he's going to consider the top votes ballot wise, but it doesn't give him a bigger shot, as he probably won't change his position on Isaac that easily just because the ballot exists.

Yes, it can possibly apply to the ballot too, but I doubt it. Since he is asking suggestions from the fans instead of deciding the newcomers completely himself, he has to make some changes to his philosophy.

Different views I guess, but I'm sticking with my gut. He might make one exception, but I doubt it will be for Isaac.

 

[candyissweet]

Isaac's chances IN MY OPINION (don't be offended please) I estimate about 50% at the least.

This is a really bizarre conclusion to come to, but I feel like Isaac was considered as a playable character some point in development but never got added into the game. As one of the more heavily requested characters, he was one of the few who not only didn't show up, but more like disappeared from his presence in Brawl. And yet we do have two soundtracks from Golden Sun in the game. We haven't really had any word from Sakurai of his whereabouts, but of all assist trophies to remove from the game, I'm surprised a character who fans wanted to have playable status was the one to get dropped. It makes a lot of sense if he was in development, but didn't make the deadline and had to be dropped from the assist trophy role due to time as well.

There's still too much stuff that I would say that contradicts my prediction, so overall I feel like with Isaac it's just a really messed up situation. Then again, everything in life is...



My want of course is 100%. Might be why my above paragraphs were so biased... I don't really have much of a say for this part because other people have summed it up pretty well. XD


Iwata Tribute chance for me (don't be offended by this either) maybe like 25%?

You might be surprised to see me say this, especially since even today I'm still trying to get over his passing. I also know Sakurai was hit hard by this, but I just feel like Smash isn't really the place to honor things in real life. I mean this is definitely relevant to Nintendo, and of course the whole world in general, but Smash is a game about hype. As much as I love Iwata, I'm not sure Sakurai would throw some stuff across the fourth wall alongside the characters with higher priority.

My want: 100%. Like I said above, there's still that 25% chance that Sakurai will take a step further and honor Iwata in Smash.

 

[LIQUID12A]

Isaac
Chance: 100% He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two. Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters.

Want: 100%

You're no better than that one guy who intentionally trolled by voting 100% for Geno once.

At the same time, this reeks of bias despite claiming the contrary. You're my friend, Sky, but I'm not going to abstain from calling you out.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

He could be referring to pre-Pikmin too, since Animal Crossing was a franchise that originally debuted April 2001, months before Pikmin and Golden Sun's release.

I'll give you proof.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Crossing_(video_game)


Golden Sun's original release was in August 1, 2001, between AC's and Pikmin's. I'm sure he's referring to before and after, and he is in the gaps of franchises that didn't get in as playable in Brawl.

Could=/= Actually is. And in the case of Animal Crossing, it didn't get a character not because it wasn't considered worthy, but because Sakurai felt it was too peaceful so I'm not sure why you brought that up.

What about the possibility of fan-service being something else entirely? It's not clear just yet. Yeah he's going to consider the top votes ballot wise, but it doesn't give him a bigger shot, as he probably won't change his position on Isaac that easily just because the ballot exists.

I know what it doesn't mean- catering to a minority of the Smash fanbase by making obscure characters few people want and without a strong fanbase in general. That is absoluetly not fanservice. And considering the literal definition of fanservice and the fact he has often repeated the fact he included Roy, Lucas and Mewtwo because of their popularity, fanservice clearly isn't implied to mean anything else. The only way to have fanservice in terms of character DLC is by including popular characters. Isaac, being a popular character among the Smash fanbase, clearly qualifies as fanservice. In that regards he does have somewhat a bigger shot. And the ballot existed only because Sakurai wanted to see what characters the fanbase wanted.[/quote]