Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[BluePikmin11]

The more I argue about iconicness, the more flaws I see within it. I just think that's just an extra beneficial factor more than anything, especially when Sakurai has never been real clear about what types of third-parties he chooses, we're spreading this as false, unconfirmed gossip. Wouldn't the loud and large amount of demand she has make up for the fact she isn't iconic? That's enough to cover the cost it makes to develop a character.

I'm pretty sure Sakurai is fine with other third-parties given the fact he has said that they at least need to appear in a Nintendo console (and the fact any video game character is viable), I don't think he has some evil bearing against a 3rd party character who isn't iconic. As far as I'm concerned, You don't need to have a legacy in order to be playable as long as there are other factors that make up for it.

And I don't think it's fair to give a score of 0% when there are other beneficial factors that help Sakurai consider Bayonetta. (Being highly requested and close relationship with Kamiya and with PlatinumGames). Given that Sakurai is likely close friends with Kamiya, he wouldn't easily deny her immediately with her sexualization and lack of iconicness and think about solutions to solving it. She's not at a situation where she's owned by another competitor to make her impossible. (Banjo-Kazooie) The only way she'd be 0% completely is if her franchise was so obscure and she had a lack of notable demand like Marina Lightyears, or Boy and Blob, or Goemon, or the Zombies Ate My Neighbors protagonist, or Toejam and Earl. She's none of those things.

"Nintendo saved Bayonetta 2 from cancellation and published it themselves!"
Since when does one game = viable smash candidate? The only modern series with only one game to receive a character is Monado Boy Chronicles, and Nintendo acquired the Studio that made the game.

I agree here, but there's other ways she is viable, and it's through very easy ways (P.S. the ballot). And wouldn't the close relationship with Platinum Games make it as easy asking Shulk from Monolith Soft.

3. "But we are getting Ryu!"
I personally don't think we are, but that is besides the point. Here's my list of third party characters I made for Jibanayn, but with Bayonetta.
Pac Man: Probably the most recognizable character in all of video gaming, and has been a cultural icon for 35 years.
Sonic: A former rival to Mario that was Sega's mascot in the Sega vs. Nintendo conflict of old, but has since become a staple of Nintendo platforms.
Mega Man: A character that has been a staple on Nintendo platforms for over twenty-five years, and one of the most heavily requested characters to enter the smash scene.
Ryu?: Reinvented the entire fighting genre with Street Fighter II, and has continued the series up until present day.
Bayonetta: Had one moderately well-selling game package as a Wii U exclusive.
She just doesn't fit in with the rest of our third-party characters.

OBJECTION!
The more I argue about iconicness, the more flaws I see within it. I just think that's just an extra beneficial factor more than anything, especially when Sakurai has never been real clear about what types of third-parties he chooses, we're spreading false gossip. Wouldn't the loud and large amount of demand she has make up for the fact she isn't iconic? That's enough to cover the cost it makes to develop a character.

4. "They could always tone down Bayonetta's moves"
But toning down a character removes them from what they are, and that is clearly not something Sakurai is interested in. From what I've seen in reviews the story of the games isn't what draws people in, so the focus of the game is clearly the stylized combat system. If they felt like taking a character out of the context the game puts them in for the sake of playability, you have one guess as to what purple character we would see on our selection screen.

Let's look at the points.
1. Yes, there are moments where Bayonetta isn't as revealing or scantly clad as Zero Suit Samus, but being revealing and sexualized is a major part of her character and fighting style. Sakurai is all about making characters as accurate to their original portrayals as possible; Luigi finally has a scuttle jump, Donkey Kong can roll attack, Pit has moves from Uprising, and Robin has limited weapon usage for example. Because of this, it's hard to exclude that major aspect of Bayonetta from Smash. Yes, Zero Suit Samus has her shorts and Shulk has his swimsuit, but there is one major thing that is different; they aren't sexualized characters. You can argue about this with ZSS, but that isn't a major part of her character; it is for Bayonetta.

2. Now this requires a massive OBJECTION in it's own right. This game is rated E10+, Brawl was rated T. It was OK to include Snake in a T rated game, but including an M rated character in an E10 game, especially one like Bayonetta who is much harder to censor, would be much more difficult to implement. DLC has to be within the boundaries of the ESRB rating given, which Bayonetta fails in this regard as she would reference an M rated game. Snake's presence in Brawl was probably what made Brawl T rated in the first place, because it referenced an M rated game. Also, Snake's censoring is a lot different from censoring Bayonetta. Real world weapons were removed, but explosives were kept in, which did match with his character. Bayonetta would still need to be censored, and even more so thanks to her provocative moves.
3. Again, her situation is far different from bikini Samus and M rated Snake. There is a clear boundary that would be crossed with Bayonetta, much more than a pic of Samus that you see for like a few seconds in a few games (or if you referring to the shorts, they aren't revealing) or a character like Snake who can be toned down. You need to tone down Bayonetta to absurd degrees to make her work in Smash.

OBJECTION!
If you remove the strip mechanic completely, then by definition it does removes them from what they are. The stripping mechanic would still be there, keeping her true to her character, but not to the point where the parts are noticeably shown, it's not a severe change at all, it's merely just covering the boobs and bottom parts while keeping her core mechanic in the game.

If they felt like taking a character out of the context the game puts them in for the sake of playability, you have one guess as to what purple character we would see on our selection screen.

Ugh... Comparing Ridley to Bayonetta yet again. To put in simple terms:
The difference between them is that Bayonetta is a character and is suitable for playability. Ridley is a boss, a terrorizing one whose size defines what the character is, toning down his size would make him lose his terrorizing presence and make Ridley look like ridiculously silly looking in battle. Bayonetta isn't a terrorizing giant boss and is viable for playability.

- Started exclusive to Sony/Microsoft

Isn't this irrelevant to her chances? I know he didn't start Sony exclusive, but Snake was a character who defined Sony and he's in the game.

- Created to be a power fantasy for women, by a woman, sexualization and cussing is at the heart of her character

I wouldn't say cussing is at the heart of her character, she rarely says anything censor worthy during my play through through the original, the only notable case it happened is through the final battle. The only real smack talkers here are Enzo and Rodin:

That's probably where Leafeon got his problem from, but those guys aren't Bayonetta.

-Transformations in mid-moveset have been very simple up to this point.

I don't think this is a flaw at all, this would be more of Sakurai developing the character. Even if that was the case, there are other moves she can use for special moves. The transformations are just a tiny fraction of Bayonetta's attacks anyway.

- Probably not even in the top 10 of requests

This isn't a popularity contest people! As long as the character is notably requested, Sakurai will consider the character regardless if they aren't in the top 10, that would really and severely just limit his choices, and I'm willing to bet he goes through hundreds of choices that getting voted in the ballot right now, and I'm confident he saw a large amount of votes for Bayonetta for Sakurai to consider her.

I disagree with this notion.
Yes, moveset potential is important, as well as uniqueness. I mean, uniqueness played a major part in deciding the newcomers and was the deciding factor between Robin and Chrom, but just because a character is unique doesn't mean they are automatically Smash material or in Smash. My prime example? King K. Rool. We've went on and on about how unique he could be, but he was excluded.
Uniqueness is a factor, but there are major problems lying ahead for Bayonetta that would prevent her inclusion.

Uniqueness isn't a shoo-in fact for sure, but it is definitely beneficial for her chances.

Also, you are overlooking one critical piece of evidence; evidence that contradicts those points.
That evidence is of course, Tharja! Yes, it was brought up in your counterarguments, but her exclusion as a trophy plays a much more key role here. For those who don't know, she is a character from FE: Awakening and was quite the popular character, so popular that she was planned to get a trophy but she didn't for a good reason. Here is artwork of her in Awakening:

Spoiler

As we can clearly see, she is incredibly revealing! Her outfit alone would boost the game's rating to T, which I bet Nintendo prevented in order to reach a broader audience with the E10 rating.
There is also a key term people describe her: the fan service character. Tharja and Bayonetta are quite similar in fact; they are both very fan servicey characters. The scope of Tharja's problem would reach tenfold if Bayonetta was included as a character because having sexualized attacks are a key part of Bayonetta's character.

OBJECTION!
I'm pretty sure Bayonetta can get in as a trophy still. The fact of the matter is that her default appearance isn't as controversial, and she doesn't reveal as much skin as Tharja when she's not in combat. It's safe to assume if Bayonetta were included as a trophy, she definitely wouldn't be as naked of an appearance as Tharja.

It looks cool and all that, but that point is not very important, Sakurai can make every character unique with time.
And all the popular DLC characters (K.Rool, Isaac, Dixie, Bandana Dee, Inkling, Krystal, etc) have moveset potential and they would add something new to the game.
Being unique doesn't make all the negative points about Bayonetta irrelevant.

He certainly can, but the difference is that her uniqueness definitely stands out and it wouldn't require creative liberties to make her moveset given the source material already provides a load of moves for Sakurai to use like Mega Man.
Let's look at Sakurai's uniqueness criteria:

"Does the character have something inherently unique about them? Can that be used to make Smash Bros. interesting? Is the character a representative character [for the source material]? Do they conflict at all with other characters? Was there anything about them that stood out when we began development?"

She basically qualifies for everything said here, and her being stand-out would likely be one of the case that would really make Sakurai want to implement her in the game.

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

So... Bayonetta the sexy witch.

Chances (for a guest): 30%

As a guest, Bayonetta is not THE top character in terms of legitimacy, but I think she isn't doing bad. After all, it's Nintendo that allowed Bayonetta 2, basically.

As a smash fighter, we can stay true to the character. What makes the game rated so high (at least in Europe) is basically the tortures and the blood. Mario will never die in a burst of blood! She is never "seen" naked, as there's always some clever censorship. And she is rarely naked, beside what people says.
During her wicked weaves attacks (what I imagine to be Smash attacks), she isn't naked, but there's just some skin revealed. With Zero Suit Samus' shorts, it's not a problem IMO. Also, in the Bayonetta games, only the main suit does strip her: we can play several costumes, and some close to the main one, without stripping, and it looks just fine. And also, during the Umbran climax, she sends tons of wicked weaves without being stripped.

Now, of course, she will never have a taunt where she basically spread her legs and say "**** you". But there's enough material to make a faithful, "Nintendo Friendly" character.

Want: 100%
I seriously love Bayonetta's game. If she can come with a Jeanne costume, it's even better.

 

[StormC]

I'm pretty sure Sakurai is fine with other third-parties given the fact he has said that they at least need to appear in a Nintendo console (and the fact any video game character is viable), I don't think he has some evil bearing against a 3rd party character who isn't iconic. As far as I'm concerned, You don't need to have a legacy in order to be playable as long as there are other factors that make up for it.

This is just guesswork. It's all "it could happen." There is no solid evidence for your claim. The fact that every third party so far has been iconic is simply too big of a factor to be ignored.

Wouldn't the loud and large amount of demand she has make up for the fact she isn't iconic?

It's not that large or big. She barely ever hits top 5 in exit polls. For a third party character, that's fairly damning.

This isn't a popularity contest people! As long as the character is notably requested, Sakurai will consider the character regardless if they aren't in the top 10, that would really and severely just limit his choices, and I'm willing to bet he goes through hundreds of choices that getting voted in the ballot right now, and I'm confident he saw a large amount of votes for Bayonetta for Sakurai to consider her.

Doesn't this directly contradict what you just said about her "loud and large amount of demand?"

In any case, there is simply no way popularity is not a huge factor when choosing character DLC. Anything else is bad business.

EDIT: Also, it's worth pointing out that putting in a third party character in Smash isn't as simple as waving a wand:

Adding third-party characters should be considered a very special case. In the last game, when we added Sonic and Snake, there were lots of different hoops to jump through as far as getting approvals and making sure all the parties involved were happy with the way things went. You can consider it a very special circumstance for that to happen [...] It’s much tougher than people can imagine. I know lots of people have requests and their own ideas about third-party characters that would work, but I want people to understand that adding a third-party character like Mega Man is a very special situation.

 

[FalKoopa]

BAYONETTA:
CHANCE: 6%
Bayonetta is a 3rd party, owned by SEGA to be specific. Ryu was a god-send because it opened the door to 2nd characters from 3rd party companies, provided they are reasonably iconic and well known in the general gaming community.

This is where the troubles start. Bayonetta isn't quite on the level of the 3rd parties who have graced Smash Bros. already, not even Snake. And there's the fact that unlike Brawl, Smash 4 is deliberately shooting for a E10+ family-friendly image, removing content (like the Tharja trophy) if necessary. On the other hand, Bayonetta is specifically designed to be an M-rated character. Now before you bring up Snake, one difference between them is the character design - Metal Gear games are rated M because of the violence, themes and the gameplay. While two-thirds of the reason Bayonetta is M rated is because if the way the character is designed.

All this leads me to believe that Bayonetta is not a top choice for inclusion in Smash 4.

WANT: 0%
I'll be honest - I was never particularly interested in the character and the hot debates in the Character Discussion Thread have only served to make me dislike her.

PALUTENA'S GUIDANCE: 25%

ASHLEY (WARIOWARE) × 5
TINGLE × 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

This is just guesswork. It's all "it could happen." There is no solid evidence for your claim. The fact that every third party so far has been iconic is simply too big of a factor to be ignored.

There's no solid claim for being very iconic either either.
Even with this.

Adding third-party characters should be considered a very special case. In the last game, when we added Sonic and Snake, there were lots of different hoops to jump through as far as getting approvals and making sure all the parties involved were happy with the way things went. You can consider it a very special circumstance for that to happen [...] It’s much tougher than people can imagine. I know lots of people have requests and their own ideas about third-party characters that would work, but I want people to understand that adding a third-party character like Mega Man is a very special situation.

There's nothing specific said here that says they have to be an game industry changer in order to be in. And as far as the large different hoops go, that's likely going to be minimized with Platinum Games close relationship with Nintendo right now with Nintendo helping to publish or develop their games. (Even adding W101 trophies in the game too, I'm pretty sure Sakurai had to ask them if he could put those characters in the game.

To go from very special situation to allowing any video game character to join in the ballot is a notable change in of itself, enough to prove that Sakurai is willing to pick non-iconic third parties if they have enough beneficial factors that make up for the lack of being an icon. And the fact that there's third-party trophies from other companies like Rayman and Commander Video and many of the companies' willingness to put their character in the game, and I'm pretty sure there would be much more ease when it comes to agreeing for Bayonetta in Smash.

It's not that large or big. She barely ever hits top 5 in exit polls. For a third party character, that's fairly damning.

But it's there, she's been trending on Tumblr, Twitter, and appeared in a load of top 10 wishlist for the ballot. I'm pretty dang confident that's enough notable demand for Sakurai to consider her.

 

[FancySmash]

Bayoneta - A character that would feel a hair out of place

Chance
5% - I'm not sure if this is still being a bit generous or not. From what I've seen, her positives include being slightly popular, in a positive place with Nintendo, and move set potential. And that's where it all ends. The bottom line of this situation is that she's an M rated character, and for a much more serious reason than Snake was. I don't think I have to mention why she is an M rated character, that's been well established by everyone before me. That's the main problem with her chance, not even taking into account that Smash is now rated E10 instead of T. From what I've also seen, it appears that her popularity might also be a bit exaggerated, but of course, that's a matter of opinion.

Want
0% - For a Smash candidate, no. No thank you. I've never played her games, nor do I plan to in the future. She isn't anywhere near the iconic level that Sonic, PAC-MAN, Megaman, or Snake fall too, and that's a big red flag for me. Lastly, I feel that a character of her... type, just doesn't fit in a Smash environment.

Palutena Guidance Conversations: 35.1% - This can go either way in reality, but I expect ratings to be a bit lower rather than high.
ROB bug fix 90.12% - Honestly, I didn't even no there was a bug with ROB's eyes. I'm sorry, it's not that I didn't care to notice, it's just that it's a bit difficult to read a robot's expressions and emotions!

Nominations: What's that? I've gotten an extra five nominations today?

Excellent! The nominations are like all the gold coins in the photo, and I'm the ecstatic Scrooge McDuck...
That said, I'm just going to give all ten to Meowth, so Meowth X10.

 

[Wolfie557]

Chances: 20%
Want: 120%

The Umbran Witch Bayonetta, is a loved and quickly growing character from the critically acclaimed Bayonetta series created by PlatinumGames. Always enjoying fighting angels and demons alike and getting the job done in style, she has a adorable fun side to her as well. Bayonetta is also very caring to her close companions, even going through hell to try and bring Jeanne back - sometimes she enjoys banter with them too. After being locked inside an Umbran coffin for 500 years, Bayonetta has forgotten much of her past, and who she really is, but quickly went on a quest to find out while meeting new friends along the way. She uses “Bullet Arts” as the main form of fighting, which combines melee attacks with guns as well as having magical hair for clothes. Throughout both of her games, Bayonetta has slowly grown into a confident, strong and determined heroin, keeping her cool in the face of the enemy. With an undeniably rich moveset potential, she would be a perfect character to appear in Smash Bros.

Another thing I'd like to add is that Nintendo was able to incorporate Solid Snake into Brawl, whose original fighting style involved pistols and rifles, which if you ask me, would be even harder to tone down. But they were able to make him work nonetheless, so I'm pretty confident that they can make Bayonetta work in Smash.

Another thing I'd like to add is that Nintendo was able to incorporate Solid Snake into Brawl, whose original fighting style involved pistols and rifles, which if you ask me, would be even harder to tone down. But they were able to make him work nonetheless, so I'm pretty confident that they can make Bayonetta work in Smash.

 

[False Sense]

The more I argue about iconicness, the more flaws I see within it. I just think that's just an extra beneficial factor more than anything, especially when Sakurai has never been real clear about what types of third-parties he chooses, we're spreading this as false, unconfirmed gossip.

In regards to the "iconic" rule, it's true that it hasn't been directly confirmed.

However, we do have something that allows us to infer its existence: evidence.

First of all, we have what Sakurai has said on the matter.

(Interviewer) "So," I continued, "what's the third-party character you'd most like to see?"

Sakurai laughed.

(Sakurai) "I'm really sorry," he said through a translator. "If I were to answer that question, I'd get in a lot of trouble in a lot of different ways, so I can't answer. But I think I can say generally that there won't be a trend of adding a lot of third-party characters. You can sort of think of Mega Man as being the special case." (Link)


"I'm not going to have just any character participate from other companies, but [Mega Man's] definitely in a class of his own." (Link)

On two separate occasions, Sakurai has commented on how Third Party characters are a very big matter. Notably, he has emphasized how one Third Party character, Mega Man, is "the special case" and "in a class of his own." Furthermore, he has explicitly stated that he will not be adding excessive amounts of Third Party characters (again pointing out that those added are special), and wouldn't add just any Third Party character..

And looking over his history with Third Party characters, his actions match his words. Snake, Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man are all undeniably huge names in the gaming industry, each having had significant impacts on the history of gaming itself. These are the types of characters that Sakurai has described as "special cases." From all this, we can safely infer that Sakurai is very particular with Third Party choices. Everything would suggest that a character has to be a really big deal to make it into Smash.

Now, can that semi-unspoken rule be broken, or proven incorrect? Certainly. Anything can change. However, is there any indication, any evidence, that it will?

Obviously, we're dealing with DLC now. This is an entirely different beast compared to the original roster, and it's highly likely that some of the rules may have changed. So what of Third Party characters? Could it be that Sakurai will be more lenient with them this time around?

Fortunately, we seem to know of the existence of one Third Party DLC: Ryu. Yet another huge video game character that has had a historic impact on gaming. The addition of Ryu does nothing to suggest that Sakurai's Third Party policy has changed. On the contrary, it reaffirms what we already believed.

In short, there is sufficient evidence present for us to infer that not just any Third Party character can make it into Smash, and zero evidence to suggest that anything has changed. To disregard this entirely as baseless gossip is, frankly, unwise for making a compelling argument.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

While iconicness might not hinder her from getting in, it does make the character more likely.
The thing with Bayonetta is that while her cons can be overwon, she doesn't have much pros except for middling popularity and perceived moveset potential

There's no solid claim for being very iconic either either.
Even with this.

There's nothing specific said here that says they have to be an game industry changer in order to be in. And as far as the large different hoops go, that's likely going to be minimized with Platinum Games close relationship with Nintendo right now with Nintendo helping to publish or develop their games. (Even adding W101 trophies in the game too, I'm pretty sure Sakurai had to ask them if he could put those characters in the game.

To go from very special situation to allowing any video game character to join in the ballot is a notable change in of itself, enough to prove that Sakurai is willing to pick non-iconic third parties if they have enough beneficial factors that make up for the lack of being an icon. And the fact that there's third-party trophies from other companies like Rayman and Commander Video and many of the companies' willingness to put their character in the game, and I'm pretty sure there would be much more ease when it comes to agreeing for Bayonetta in Smash.


But it's there, she's been trending on Tumblr, Twitter, and appeared in a load of top 10 wishlist for the ballot. I'm pretty dang confident that's enough notable demand for Sakurai to consider her.

That you can vote for any video game character will not mean every video game character can get in.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Oh boy. I knew it. Just like the economy, there's a crap ton of inflation

 

[Wolfie557]

Oh boy. I knew it. Just like the economy, there's a crap ton of inflation

Sorry for opinions existing.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Sorry for opinions existing.

Opinions shouldn't factor in to the Chance rating

 

[Wolfie557]

Opinions shouldn't factor in to the Chance rating

They do in both rating. I think people think the chance is different to what others think it is.So it's always kinda an opinion anyway. Otherwise.....there wouldn't be such a thing as a chance rating for users and the chance would be the same for everyone lmao.

 

[Pacack]

Opinions shouldn't factor in to the Chance rating

Opinions should absolutely factor into chance ratings. Opinions are the difference between "Bayonetta is too mature," and "Bayonetta can be censored."

Both sides must be represented so that the general consensus of the public may be gauged. That's the entire point of this game.

 

[Wolfie557]

Opinions should absolutely factor into chance ratings. Opinions are the difference between "Bayonetta is too mature," and "Bayonetta can be censored."

Both sides must be represented so that the general consensus of the public may be gauged. That's the entire point of this game.

I'm more of the opinion of "Bayonetta should not strip but hair effects and wicked weaves remain"

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Apparently Bayonetta's day is becoming Young Link's day II (both being controversial).

 

[Megadoomer]

- Third Party without Legacy
- Started exclusive to Sony/Microsoft
- Created to be a power fantasy for women, by a woman, sexualization and cussing is at the heart of her character
- Transformations in mid-moveset have been very simple up to this point.
- Probably not even in the top 10 of requests

Not sure why some of these are such big deals. Third party without a legacy, I get - that's understandable. However, the others seem like odd choices.

As far as starting out exclusive to other consoles, the exact same thing could be said about every third party character in Smash Bros. but Mega Man. Snake started on the MSX before Metal Gear was ported to the NES (poorly, but without the NES version, we might not have the rest of the series), Pac-Man (and, if we're including him in this discussion, Ryu) started in the arcades, and Sonic was made in direct opposition to Nintendo, with his games only making it onto Nintendo consoles relatively recently. Not every character is going to start on a Nintendo console, and limiting it exclusively to that removes a lot of third party characters who would be good options.

Sexualization being at the heart of the character, I get, (though it could be (and has been) toned down, as I've mentioned in my earlier post), but cussing? Characters barely talk in Smash Bros. - I don't see how that's going to cause any problems with how she's portrayed in SSB. (Besides, from what I can recall, it's not like she's the NPCs in Conker's Bad Fur Day where every third word out of her mouth is swearing - any foul language is few and far between)

I'm not sure why transformations mid-moveset is that big of an issue either - even if that was somehow impossible (which, if it's for one attack, like turning into a panther for her dash attack or turning into a bird for her B-up, I don't see why it would be), it's not like Bayonetta's lacking in terms of other options, between the various combo attacks and weapons that she can use from her games. If she can't turn into a panther or a bird, there are plenty of other attack methods available.

As for "probably not even in the top ten of requests", that's entirely subjective, not to mention that we have no way of knowing who's doing well at this point. While she might not have as much support as K. Rool or Inklings, she does get brought up a decent amount of times when people on Youtube videos and whatnot discuss who they'd like to see.

 

[BluePikmin11]

In regards to the "iconic" rule, it's true that it hasn't been directly confirmed.

However, we do have something that allows us to infer its existence: evidence.

First of all, we have what Sakurai has said on the matter.

(Interviewer) "So," I continued, "what's the third-party character you'd most like to see?"

Sakurai laughed.

(Sakurai) "I'm really sorry," he said through a translator. "If I were to answer that question, I'd get in a lot of trouble in a lot of different ways, so I can't answer. But I think I can say generally that there won't be a trend of adding a lot of third-party characters. You can sort of think of Mega Man as being the special case." (Link)

"I'm not going to have just any character participate from other companies, but [Mega Man's] definitely in a class of his own." (Link)

On two separate occasions, Sakurai has commented on how Third Party characters are a very big matter. Notably, he has emphasized how one Third Party character, Mega Man, is "the special case" and "in a class of his own." Furthermore, he has explicitly stated that he will not be adding excessive amounts of Third Party characters (again pointing out that those added are special), and wouldn't add just any Third Party character..

And looking over his history with Third Party characters, his actions match his words. Snake, Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man are all undeniably huge names in the gaming industry, each having had significant impacts on the history of gaming itself. These are the types of characters that Sakurai has described as "special cases." From all this, we can safely infer that Sakurai is very particular with Third Party choices. Everything would suggest that a character has to be a really big deal to make it into Smash.

Yeah, there will likely be a few third-party DLC choices in the game that's likely what Sakurai was referring to regarding 3rd parties, Bayonetta's inclusion does not equal 12 dozen third-parties in the game.

Now, can that semi-unspoken rule be broken, or proven incorrect? Certainly. Anything can change. However, is there any indication, any evidence, that it will?

Obviously, we're dealing with DLC now. This is an entirely different beast compared to the original roster, and it's highly likely that some of the rules may have changed. So what of Third Party characters? Could it be that Sakurai will be more lenient with them this time around?

Fortunately, we seem to know of the existence of one Third Party DLC: Ryu. Yet another huge video game character that has had a historic impact on gaming. The addition of Ryu does nothing to suggest that Sakurai's Third Party policy has changed. On the contrary, it reaffirms what we already believed.

In short, there is sufficient evidence present for us to infer that not just any Third Party character can make it into Smash, and zero evidence to suggest that anything has changed. To disregard this entirely as baseless gossip is, frankly, unwise for making a compelling argument.

There is evidence that he can change his mind even if it's not much to go by:

To go from very special situation to allowing any video game character to join in the ballot is a notable change in of itself, enough to prove that Sakurai is willing to pick non-iconic third parties if they have enough beneficial factors that make up for the lack of being an icon. And the fact that there's third-party trophies from other companies like Rayman and Commander Video and many of the companies' willingness to put their character in the game, and I'm pretty sure there would be much more ease when it comes to agreeing for Bayonetta in Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

OBJECTION!
If you remove the strip mechanic completely, then by definition it does removes them from what they are. The stripping mechanic would still be there, keeping her true to her character, but not to the point where the parts are noticeably shown, it's not a severe change at all, it's merely just covering the boobs and bottom parts while keeping her core mechanic in the game.

Unfortunately, this contradicts something major. Here is what you said:
"The stripping mechanic would still be there."
Now let me ask this.

Why would the ESRB allow this in an E10 game?
As I have stated before, all DLC content much be within the given ESRB rating. So, let me ask this? Why would stripping be allowed? THAT IS MUCH MORE THAN JUST PARTIAL NUDITY!

I know that you said that they could cover the parts, but that is still very, very extreme.

OBJECTION!
I'm pretty sure Bayonetta can get in as a trophy still. The fact of the matter is that her default appearance isn't as controversial, and she doesn't reveal as much skin as Tharja when she's not in combat. It's safe to assume if Bayonetta were included as a trophy, she definitely wouldn't be as naked of an appearance as Tharja.

However, we are rating Bayonetta as a DLC character, meaning that she will be in the flesh, fighting against other characters. That is a much larger and far different role than having a mere trophy.

 

[Senatiator]

Bayonetta is already in Super Smash Bros.

Spoiler

 

[Wolfie557]

We just need the true Bayonetta now.

 

[Scamper52596]

Bayonetta
Chance: 0.4%
I do not think she's likely at all. Too many negatives outweigh her only positive which is basically moveset potential. Tons of other characters who are first party also have moveset potential, and would be prioritized over Bayonetta in a second. Not to mention her image, which is something I'm sure Nintendo doesn't want in their Smash title. Sure you could argue Shulk and Zero Suit Samus, but they don't act the part so to speak. Having to start by toning down a character's image and personality is an immediate red flag within itself. I might add that a majority of Smash 4's install base is situated on the 3DS, and Bayonetta doesn't represent anything on that system. That makes her pretty unrecognizable to the general audience. Sure, she has some Ballot support, but just how much does she have outside of people who regularly visit Internet forums and keep up with this sort of stuff? So her small amount of popularity doesn't even mean much for her. I'll give the Umbra Witch a score of 0.4%.
Nintendo probably can't be bothered...

Want: 0%
This is my first 0 percent want rating I have ever given in this thread. Keep in mind that I've come back to rate EVERY single character and concept thus far, and this is the character that I want the least. Keep her AWAY from my Smash title. I'm not a fan of her character or the game she comes from. There are so many far deserving first party characters that I can think of.

Prediction - New Palutena's Guidance Conversations - 5.6%

Nominations:
x3 !Rerate: Inklings
x2 Tails the Fox

 

[Mario123311]

I just remember one of the creators of Bayonetta insulting the Smash community so I can't say I really think she holds a chance.... I wouldn't mind her of course, I guess. but personally: I'm still hoping more for Inkling or someone else.

Chance: 0.9
Want: 16%

The only "M" rated character I still think would fit Smash would be Doom Guy though, honestly.

 

[Laniv]

Bayonetta:

Chance: 20%
Arguably has the highest chance of any third party, barring Rayman, Snake, and maybe Shantae.

Want: 30%
I'll take Snake first, thank you.

Predictions for Palutena's Guidance: 2% Chance, 60% Want
Predictions for Fixing R.O.B.'s Eye glitch: 4% Chance, 5% Want

Nominate Medusa x 5

 

[LIQUID12A]

To go from very special situation to allowing any video game character to join in the ballot is a notable change in of itself, enough to prove that Sakurai is willing to pick non-iconic third parties if they have enough beneficial factors that make up for the lack of being an icon. And the fact that there's third-party trophies from other companies like Rayman and Commander Video and many of the companies' willingness to put their character in the game, and I'm pretty sure there would be much more ease when it comes to agreeing for Bayonetta in Smash.

Even in the context of "allowing any video game character to join in the ballot", there's going to be a logical limit. You wouldn't expect, say, Master Chief or Freddy Fazbear to be picked, because that would be all kinds of strange.

And when directly compared to Bayonetta, both Rayman and Bit Trip Runner have had far, far more presence on Nintendo systems than Bayonetta, so in context, their trophy status may raise an eyebrow to some, but in the end makes sense.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Erst the debate flaring over the last couple of pages, I've been concocting my arguments in silence.

I'm on my way home from work. So as soon as I have my desktop access, I'll give the Umbran Witch a suitably sultry rating! Sadly, I lack an Eye of the World to forsee what could conspire. But I have a feeling I'll mostly be vouching for the plantiff.

 

[Wolfie557]

I just remember one of the creators of Bayonetta insulting the Smash community so I can't say I really think she holds a chance.... I wouldn't mind her of course, I guess. but personally: I'm still hoping more for Inkling or someone else.

Chance: 0.9
Want: 16%

The only "M" rated character I still think would fit Smash would be Doom Guy though, honestly.

Kamiya? He blocks everyone on twitter who annoys him for a variety of reasons.
But he approves Bayonetta for smash himself. He would love to see her but he knows it's Sakurai's decision and I don't think he is the type to beg.

Erst the debate flaring over the last couple of pages, I've been concocting my arguments in silence.

I'm on my way home from work. So as soon as I have my desktop access, I'll give the Umbran Witch a suitably sultry rating! Sadly, I lack an Eye of the World to forsee what could conspire. But I have a feeling I'll mostly be vouching for the plantiff.

Them references!!! I love you man.

 

[Megadoomer]

I just remember one of the creators of Bayonetta insulting the Smash community so I can't say I really think she holds a chance.... I wouldn't mind her of course, I guess. but personally: I'm still hoping more for Inkling or someone else.

That's a common misconception; the only people he was insulting were the sort of people who tweet "is Bayonetta going to be in Smash?" "When's Bayonetta going to be announced for Smash?" and so on at him, even though (a) he has nothing to do with the development of Smash Bros., and (b) if Bayonetta was included at any point, he wouldn't be able to say anything about it until Nintendo announced it, which I believe he had said previously.

 

[Wolfie557]

Bayonetta:

Chance: 20%
Arguably has the highest chance of any third party, barring Rayman, Snake, and maybe Shantae.

Want: 30%
I'll take Snake first, thank you.

Predictions for Palutena's Guidance: 2% Chance, 60% Want
Predictions for Fixing R.O.B.'s Eye glitch: 4% Chance, 5% Want

Nominate Medusa x 5

I must say.....I agree. I think she is 3rd most likely after Snake (only because he used to be in at this point) and Rayman.
Indies are another matter, but I do think Shantae is 4th or 5th or so.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Apparently Bayonetta's day is becoming Young Link's day II (both being controversial).

Okay, it seems my "prediction" was correct (Do I get extra nominations?). Didn't someone warn after YL's day that this kind of debate will result mods being informed?

 

[TallT]

Bayonetta:

Chance: 5%
Just don't see it happening. She is not even all that well known like the current 3rd party characters we have. She suffers from the same flaws as the other 3rd party characters we have rated before. If Bayonetta had not been saved by Nintendo very few fans would have even been asking for her.

Want: 0%

 

[False Sense]

Yeah, there will likely be a few third-party DLC choices in the game that's likely what Sakurai was referring to regarding 3rd parties

What leads you to that conclusion? From what I can see, this is just another assumption of yours.

There is evidence that he can change his mind even if it's not much to go by

The fact that a human being has the potential to change his mind is not a new revelation.

To go from very special situation to allowing any video game character to join in the ballot is a notable change in of itself.

Any video game character can be voted for, yes, but that doesn't mean every character will receive serious consideration.

enough to prove that Sakurai is willing to pick non-iconic third parties if they have enough beneficial factors that make up for the lack of being an icon.

That's not proof. That's an assumption.

 

[Ura]

Bayonetta

Chance: 30%

I suppose she has a decent chance though I think after Ryu and possibly Snake (should he return), Sakurai is going to want to not have any more 3rd party characters in the roster.

Want: Abstain

Like yesterday, I haven't played the game she originates from.

Prediction
Palutena's Guidance Conversations: 35%
Predictions for Fixing R.O.B.'s Eye glitch: 7%

Nomination
*Concept: Battlefield/Alpha forms of stages x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Opinions shouldn't factor in to the Chance rating

People's change ratings are based on their thought processes which ultimately is based on opinion.

Okay, it seems my "prediction" was correct (Do I get extra nominations?). Didn't someone warn after YL's day that this kind of debate will result mods being informed?

This kind of debate isn't really against the rule. It's up to colder_that_ice as to how much debate is allowed in the thread.

 

[Ixbran]

Bayonetta
Chance: 50/50
I'll behonest when I say I am incredibly biased for her character. Considering the fact Nintendo approached PlatinumGames about her being on wiiU, not the other way around, I like to believe they aknowladge her characters positive traits and would be happy to include her. They let Plat do what ever they wanted with her character, and Nintendo promoted the hell out of her. Heck, Bayonetta was even included in Nintendo Magazine's "Iconic Nintendo Females" article for their issue that came out during Women's History Month.

Want: 100%
Again, I'm incredebly biased for her inclusion. And I've even gone to the trouble of coming up with an SSB move set for her on my down time.

So out of boredom, I compiled a series of .gifs to represent what I think would make an effective move set for Bayonetta, if she gets into SSB4 as DLC. I figure, if Mewtwo can get in as DLC, then so can other characters as well. It was something I made for a group on tumblr, but I feel like cross posting it.

But not just her, I also imagine that with her would come possible stage DLC, music to play on said stage, and maybe even assist trophies. So this post is not only how I imagine Bayonetta her self would play, but also list possible, music, items, and assist characters who might come along with this special "Bayonetta Pack".

First off, the Bayonetta Universe symbol, like the Zelda universe having the Triforce, and the Mario universe being the Mushroom, I feel the only suitable symbol for the Bayonetta Universe is the Umbran Witch Insignia.

COSTUMES​

For costumes, I wanted to do something similar to Bowser Jr., instead of simple re-colors, each of her eight outfits are full on alternate costumes. The last three having her take on the appearance of other characters, again like Bowser Jr. and the Koopalings.

• Blue: Bayonetta's default outfit from the second game.
• White: The outfit Bayonetta wears in the second games prologue sequence.
• Red: Bayonetta's default outfit from the first game.
• White: The outfit Bayonetta wears in the first games prologue sequence.
• Black: Bayonetta's outfit from 500 years ago, seen in flash back sequences in both games.
• Jeanne/Red: Costume that has Bayonetta replaced with her friend Jeanne. Includes voice clip changes.
• Rosa/Orange: Costume that has Bayonetta replaced with her mother Rosa. Includes voice clip changes.
• Umbran Apprentice/Brown: Costume that has Bayonetta replaced with the appearance of an Umbran Witch Apprentice.

MOVE SET​

First off, Moveset for the Wonderful Witch her self. Rather than giving her different attacks based off her various weapons, I feel all of her attacks, outside of Animal Transformations, should focus on what she can use with just her guns.

Yes she is a capable fighter with any weapon, but since her guns are her most iconic weapon, I feel they should be the only ones she’d use in her smash bros appearance. Note if the move she performs in a .gif has a name, it will be listed. If it doesn’t, a name describing the ability will be listed instead.

Note: as a Special Gimmick, when attacking with her standard attacks, holding down the attack button after pressing it will cause her to shoot magical bullets, just like in the Bayonetta series.

SPECIALS

• Neutral Special: Charge Bullet
  
  
  
  • Default: Charge energy to fire several rapid fire shots.
  • Variation 1: Charges a massive orb of magic energy in her gun then fires it. Functions similarly to Samus’s Charge Shot.
  • Variation 2: Instantly rapid fire small magic orbs from her gun. Functions similarly to Palutena’s Autoreticle.
  
• Side Special: Panther Within
  
  
  
  • Default: Transforms into a panther and dashes forward at double standard speed. Press the button again to perform a slashing claw attack.
  • Variation 1: Transforms into a panther and dashes forward at triple standard speed. Transformation lasts only a short period of time, no slash attack.
  • Variation 2: Transforms into a panther and dashes a short distance before performing a powerful slash attack.
  
• Up Special: Crow Within
  
  
  
  • Default: Transforms into a crow and gains height as if from a 3rd jump. She will slowly descent while in crow form, and players are able to maneuver her as she descends. Functions similarly to Palutena’s Jump Glide.
  • Variation 1: Transforms into a crow and feather darts will float around her forming a damaging shield as she descends. Functions similarly to Megaman’s Lief Shield.
  • Variation 2: Transforms into a crow and darts in player generated direction. Functions similarly to Pikachu’s Quick Attack.
  
• Down Special: Witch Time
  
  
  
  • Default: Strikes a pose, and if struck, Bayonetta will both counter the attack and the enemies movement will slow down if the attack hits, as if under the effect of the Timer item, for a short period of time.
  • Variation 1: Strikes a pose, and if struck, Bayonetta will vanish then appear behind opponent and perform a meteor smash on the enemy from behind. Functions similarly to Lucario’s Double Team.
  • Variation 2: Strikes a pose, and gains a temporary boost in movement and attack speed, at the cost of strength.

STANDARD

• Jab Attack: Standard Punch Combo
  
  
• Dash Attack: Stiletto
  
  
• Ledge Recovery Attack: Arching Heel Stomp
  
  
• Ground Recovery Attack: Rising Spin Kick
  
  

Tilt Attacks

• Forward Tilt: Tetsuzanko
  
  
• Up Tilt: High Kick
  
  
• Down Tilt: Sweeping Spin Kick
  
  

Smash Attacks

• Side Smash: Straight Punch Wicked Weave
  
  
• Up Smash: Uppercut Punch Wicked Weave
  
  
• Down Smash: Stomping Heel Wicked Weave
  
  

Aerial Attacks

• Neutral Aerial: Rotating Heel Gun Kick
  
  
• Forward Aerial: After Burner Kick
  
  
• Back Aerial: Three-Hit Kick Combo
  
  
• Up Aerial: Witch Strike
  
  
• Down Aerial: Long Fall Heel Drop
  
  

Throws

• Pummel: Back and Forth Toss Torture Attack
  (a.k.a.”Bayonetta Smash!”)
  
  
• Forward Throw: Spin and Throw Torture Attack
  
  
• Up Throw: Air Bear Trap Torture Attack
  
  
• Back Throw: Iron Maiden Torture Attack
  
  
• Down Throw: Anarchy Reigns Heel Confetti Stomp
  
  

Misc

• Dodge Animation: Bat Within Technique
  
  

Final Smash
Infernal Demon Summon: Omne The Controller of Creation

MUSIC​

Music is a big part of the Smash Bros. series, so with the inclusion of a DLC Character whos series has no representation till their inclusion, music and stages will obviously be part of the DLC. There will be two categories, music that will be on both the 3DS and Wii U version, and music exclusive to the Wii U version.

Music in both SSB4-3DS/Wii U

• Fly Me to The Moon (Climax Mix)
• Moon River ∞ Climax Mix
• Mysterious Destiny
  • Retro Version
• Tomorrow is Mine
• After Burner (Climax Mix)
• Let’s Dance Boys!

Music exclusive to SSB4-Wii U

• Blood and Darkness (vs. Jeanne)
• You May Call Me Father (vs. Balder)
• Alurane - Whispers of Dimentia
• The Greatest Jubilee
• Aesir
• Night, I Stand
• Let’s Dance, Boys! 2nd Climax Ver

Misc

• Battle Victory Theme: Platinum Jingle / Verse Results Jingle Medly

ASSIST TROPHY
Assist Trophies have become an essential in terms of items of the Smash Bros. series. So here I’m going to list off Bayonetta characters whom I think would make great Assist Trophies to represent the Bayonetta Universe.

Balder

The Biological Father of Bayonetta, and her rival in the second game. As an Assist Trophy, he will attack with his weapon, the Holy Glaive, in conjunction with powerful magics. He will function similarly to Ghirahim and Phosphora, teleporting and performing various different attacks.

• Attack 1: Holy Glaive combo
  
  
• Attack 2: Light Beam
  
  
• Attack 3: Giant Glaive Projection
  
  

• Challenger Approaching Template Image (x)
• Video sources for gif's (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x), (x)

You see this is the sort of thing I do when I'm bored ...

As long as DLC characters continue to be a thing, i'm going to continue supporting her possibility for being included in SSB4.

 

[Pacack]

This kind of debate isn't really against the rule. It's up to colder_that_ice as to how much debate is allowed in the thread.

Honestly, I think that False is bringing up some very good points, and I'd like to hear what Blue has to say in his defense. There's no name calling. Just debate. So long as no personal attacks are happening, I don't see a problem.

 

[Deleted member]

Chances : 3%

Character from a M rated game. Unlike Snake i can't see bayonetta getting some sort of "change".
Only thing that saves Bayonetta is moveset, but thats it.

want : 5%

Nominations

Jin Kazama [ Tekken ] x3

Black Shadow [ F-ZERO ] X2

Prediction : Eye bug fix = 46+%

LOL... just lol. A minor bug fix is tomorrows topic?

Edit : Prediction for new Guidance Convos : Near 87+

 

[Wolfie557]

Oh yea,

Nomination: Medusa.

 

[BluePikmin11]

View attachment 55902
Unfortunately, this contradicts something major. Here is what you said:
"The stripping mechanic would still be there."
Now let me ask this.
View attachment 55901
Why would the ESRB allow this in an E10 game?
As I have stated before, all DLC content much be within the given ESRB rating. So, let me ask this? Why would stripping be allowed? THAT IS MUCH MORE THAN JUST PARTIAL NUDITY!
View attachment 55903

OBJECTION!
Isn't it possible that you can change the rating though? Wouldn't Sakurai be more concerned with CERO more than ESRB?
And there is a game that demonstrates that it's possible to change the rating when you buy the DLC:
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/japa...lc-to-play-the-evil-within-uncensored/0135145

The upcoming horror game from Resident Evil creator Shinji Mikami has been cut down to fit with the Japanese CERO D age rating – the equivalent of ages 17 and up – but can be restored to a hard CERO Z (18-plus) by downloading the ‘Gore Mode’ DLC.

It's certainly possible that he can change the rating a bit to get Bayonetta's stripping mechanic in the game if Sakurai really wanted her in the game if that becomes a problem.

Even then, the exact definition of partial nudity is the partial showing of breasts and the bottom parts, and yeah I don't think it would be considered that as long as it doesn't strip to the obvious points. Shed along the lines of Zero Suit Samus' short suit, and I'm pretty sure it would be ok in many rating systems, it would still stay true to her character.

What leads you to that conclusion? From what I can see, this is just another assumption of yours.

A little bit of common sense, and how lots of third-parties getting added as DLC is absurdly unlikely.

The fact that a human being has the potential to change his mind is not a new revelation.

I'm not sure where you are going with this. Are you saying it's minuscule evidence?

Any video game character can be voted for, yes, but that doesn't mean every character will receive serious consideration.

Yeah, he'd probably limited his choices to the most popular to being notably, decently requested. And Bayonetta is among one of those choices that has been likely considered with the ballot running.

 

[LIQUID12A]

I'm not sure where you are going with this. Are you saying it's minuscule evidence?

He means that what you said about changing minds is universally applicable to anything.

Yeah, he'd probably limited his choices to the most popular to being notably, decently requested. And Bayonetta is among one of those choices that has been likely considered with the ballot running.

There aren't any exact numbers yet to make such a statement. It's probable that in terms of third parties, Rayman and Snake are more requested than Bayonetta.

We don't even know how much support she has with the Ballot, which extends to any character.

And remember that ballot support is not the only thing that seals a character's chances.