Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Pacack]

Despite not having a Japanese release. I did hear that she has a bit of a fanbase in Japan that wants her games translated.

Interesting.

Looking it up, apparently some Japanese developers are working on Half Genie Hero, and already worked on the Pirate's Curse.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1236620800/shantae-half-genie-hero/posts/600876

 

[Chalo5000]

Shantae 40%

Well, some people think that being Indie hurts her chances, but not really, she started on the Game boy color and all her games until now are in Nintendo systems, so she has history with Nintendo, that's a good thing
Also, I have to point out that there's already some Indie representation in Smash 4

If Commander Video can have a Trophy, Shantae can easily be a playable character, the only problem is that she still hasn't had a Japanese release, but she could increase her Japan popularity just like Marth and Roy did in Melee

Want 100%

She would be cool

Inklings: I'm not sure, I mean Splatoon isn't even out yet, but they have some fans so 50%

And just for the Lols my nomination today is
Bubsy x 5

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

 

[SL the Pyro]

The second game was released on the Japanese eShop Android, albeit untranslated... for some reason.

In Shantae's defense, this is still more Eastern exposure than a lot of the other third-party/Indie candidates can boast.

 

[FooltheFlames]

That's...quite the increase. She still hasn't had a Japanese release and she is third party.

then 24% It doesnt hurt that she's had recent releases and has upcoming ones as well~
I thought she might be third party... who owns her?

 

[Pacack]

The second game was released on the Japanese eShop, albeit untranslated... for some reason.

In Shantae's defense, this is still more Eastern exposure than a lot of the other third-party/Indie candidates can boast.

Interesting. I didn't know that. I'll boost my score up just a bit.

then 24% It doesnt hurt that she's had recent releases and has upcoming ones as well~
I thought she might be third party... who owns her?

WayForward Technologies.

 

[Sid-cada]

That's...quite the increase. She still hasn't had a Japanese release and she is third party.

He's something interesting: Ken Sugimori, you know, the guy who does Pokemon's official art, once tweeted about Shantae.

then 24% It doesnt hurt that she's had recent releases and has upcoming ones as well~
I thought she might be third party... who owns her?

Shantae is owned by WayForward Technologies. Other noteworthy games they have made include the Mighty Switch Force! series, the Wii remake of A Boy and His Blob, and Duck Tales: Remastered. While they got their start on licensed games, they've grown up such a good reputation as making good games (even for the licensed stuff) that Konami let them work on Contra 4.

 

[Pacack]

He's something interesting: Ken Sugimori, you know, the guy who does Pokemon's official art, once tweeted about Shantae.

As a follower of Sugimori on twitter, he tweets about a lot of things. He's actually a huge SEGA fan, if you weren't aware.

 

[Deleted member]

And just for the Lols my nomiNation today is
Bubsy x 5

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

Zero percent chance and want ratings from everyone minus a few trolls, that's what would certainly go wrong. Brash the Friggin' Bear, eat your heart out!

 

[4theRECORD]

The second game was released on the Japanese eShop, albeit untranslated... for some reason.

In Shantae's defense, this is still more Eastern exposure than a lot of the other third-party/Indie candidates can boast.

You sure this is a reliable source? I just searched the Japanese Nintendo DS website and I had zero matches.

 

[Chalo5000]

Zero percent chance and want ratings from everyone minus a few trolls, that's what would certainly go wrong. Brash the Friggin' Bear, eat your heart out!

You forgot the fact that anyone votes for Bubsy so
Also you could have used this

I'm dissapointed

 

[Pacack]

You sure this is a reliable source? I just searched the Japanese Nintendo DS website and I had zero matches.

Looking at other sources, it never came to the Eshop, but it came out worldwide on both iOS and Steam, which included Japan. It was untranslated, though.

 

[BluePikmin11]

The second game was released on the Japanese eShop, albeit untranslated... for some reason.

In Shantae's defense, this is still more Eastern exposure than a lot of the other third-party/Indie candidates can boast.

BRB Changing my rating back to 7.5%

 

[SL the Pyro]

You sure this is a reliable source? I just searched the Japanese Nintendo DS website and I had zero matches.

Damnation, I meant to say Android, not eShop.

...That's even more bizarre. Huh.

 

[Senselessbreak]

Shantae: 1%/ Want 0%

She does have a bit of history on Nintendo handhelds, however she was greatly ignored and never really got noticed. None of her legacy gained momentum on Nintendo platforms, and shes only now getting recognized because of Kickstarter....something that isn't specific to Nintendo's legacy. Shes 3rd party, and sorta in a grey area as to regards of being an indie character or not. Sakurai has said choosing 3rd party characters is very picky, and they must have a huge icon status and must be unique.

While she has more of a chance than say characters like Shovel Knight, she still is not an icon status. Shantae and Shovel Knight are more of a fads, and realistically don't have any status to be made for the likes of Smash.

Her moveset would be based around hair, which we already have a first party hair fighter contender, Dixie Kong, who can bring more to the table.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Shantae 40%

Well, some people think that being Indie hurts her chances, but not really, she started on the Game boy color and all her games until now are in Nintendo systems, so she has history with Nintendo, that's a good thing
Also, I have to point out that there's already some Indie representation in Smash 4

If Commander Video can have a Trophy, Shantae can easily be a playable character, the only problem is that she still hasn't had a Japanese release, but she could increase her Japan popularity just like Marth and Roy did in Melee

Want 100%

She would be cool

Inklings: I'm not sure, I mean Splatoon isn't even out yet, but they have some fans so 50%

And just for the Lols my nomination today is
Bubsy x 5

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

To clarify, Commander Video was allowed one for the same reason Rayman was.

Nintendo published their games in Japan at one point.

 

[4theRECORD]

Damnation, I meant to say Android, not eShop.

...That's even more bizarre. Huh.

Though it really isn't, I live in Japan but I have plenty of English apps on my iPhone. It's just that the iPhone (and probably Android) happens to be region free.

 

[Starbound]

Oh hey this is a thing again!

Shantae: 0.1% Chance / 0% Want
Far too obscure in the grans scheme of things for third party characters. I'd argue that even Ryu is a step down from Pac-Man, Sonic and Mega Man, but Shantae is the entire apartment building's staircase down from those three. She just doesn't fit.

If we're only getting two DLC characters from the ballot, there's no way I'd take her. Probably wouldn't take her unless she's free.

Someone tag me please when Inklings go up. They're the only character I have any desire to see as DLC.

 

[Scamper52596]

@ Starbound
The Inklings happen to go up tomorrow.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Shantae isn't necessarily obscure, not Bubsy obscure, she's more popular than most retro Nintendo franchises right now, so I don't think she's truly out of the radar.

 

[Chalo5000]

To clarify, Commander Video was allowed one for the same reason Rayman was.

Nintendo published their games in Japan at one point.

Actually, Commander Video had a trophy because, and I quote:
"That trophy symbolizes our love for this gaming icon and the creativity that comes from our Independent developmet partners"

 

[BluePikmin11]

Even the developers know Commander Video is an icon.
I think you guys underestimating indie characters at this point.

 

[Pacack]

Even the developers know Commander Video is an icon.
I think you guys underestimating indie characters at this point.

Maybe we should be rating Commander Video.

 

[Seanp12]

From what I've seen from my time lurking, most of these percentages aren't really percentages so much as they are grades scaled from 0-100.

Shantae
Chance: 10%
I consider myself to be fairly liberal with characters' chances. I personally believe that, as long as Nintendo owns all of the rights to a character, the only limit is creativity. Unfortunately, third party characters don't have that advantage. Third party characters are an inherent hassle to add, and they are only really worth the effort if that particular character would sell so much DLC that it would make up for the extra work. After all, there is no lack of popular first party characters. I think that Shantae doesn't have the starpower to make herself worth the extra effort. And, as many have mentioned, Dixie Kong has some similar attributes and has the advantage of being Nintendo's property.

Want: 5%
I suppose that this is where the percentages come into play most. If these were true percentages, 50% would represent my ambivalence, but most people seem to treat 0% as "no interest." Anyhow, I have never played any of Shantae's games, I don't plan to anytime soon, and I don't really care all that much about her. I do give that 5% because I generally like seeing Smash fans happy. Even so, I think that there are many other characters that would make many more people happy than Shantae.

Inkling
Prediction: 60%
As of yet, Splatoon is still an unreleased game. I expect people to hold back a little for that reason.

Nominations:
Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x2

 

[N3ON]

The longer you hold onto the "iconic" mentality with third-parties, something that no longer exists with Nintendo newcomers, the more its going to sting when the "rule" is broken, whether it be this time or next or whenever, because eventually it will break. Third-party inclusions are unpredictable, Sakurai is a liar, the indies are super motivated, some are fairly close with Nintendo, and popularity is pretty important nowadays.

I commend those people who try to apply logic and precedent to the third-parties, however third-parties are debatably the most unpredictable part of the roster. For every Sonic and Mega Man, there's a Snake and a Ryu. You think arguing logic and precedent would've ended up in favour of those two prior to their inclusions? Not to say logic and precedent aren't unimportant, but Smash fans should recognize that when it comes to creating and therefore predicting the roster, you've got to think outside the box as much as you're going to think inside it.

I'm not saying everyone should start expecting an indie, but opening yourself up to the possibility couldn't hurt.

 

[Old School Tommy]

Because while I couldn't care less about the actual opinion

Seems legit.

Spoiler

Moving on.

Shantae:

Chance: 10%
Want: 65%

Inkling Prediction: 50%

 

[N3ON]

To clarify, Commander Video was allowed one for the same reason Rayman was.

Nintendo published their games in Japan at one point.

I'm not aware of that reason ever being stated...

 

[Warlock*G]

Time for a crackpot nomination.

I nominate Roruken's Saitou Hajime x5

 

[Atown1z]

Shantae
Chance: 15%
I don't think she has a very big shot, but if Nintendo even considers indie characters, then I think she has a better shot than Shovel Knight or Quote. That is not to say that I think those two are bad characters, and it would be great to see them, but I think Shantae overall has a slightly higher chance than them what with the fact that she has 3 released games with a fourth on the way, all released on Nintendo systems, and a very very small Japanese fan base, and she is liked by Ken Sugimori.

Want: 85%
I would be super excited to see her on the roster. She would have an interesting move set, and she fits in with the cast well. Not to mention that her games are pretty fun. The only characters that I would want more than her are any Zelda characters like: Impa, Tingle, Midna, Ghirahim, or Vaati.

Inkling Prediction: 55%
I could see Nintendo wanting to advertise their new IP in Smash, and would honestly be surprised if Nintendo doesn't even consider it, especially with both people in the West and Japan asking for it before its game is even out.

Nominations:
Vaati x5

 

[Arcanir]

I commend those people who try to apply logic and precedent to the third-parties, however third-parties are debatably the most unpredictable part of the roster. For every Sonic and Mega Man, there's a Snake and a Ryu. You think arguing logic and precedent would've ended up in favour of those two prior to their inclusions? Not to say logic and precedent aren't unimportant, but Smash fans should recognize that when it comes to creating and therefore predicting the roster, you've got to think outside the box as much as you're going to think inside it.

I don't see your point with Snake and Ryu. The former is stated to have revolutionized the stealth genre while the latter pretty much kickstarted the fighting genre, how are those character characters not notable? Even if you're arguing that they're not Sonic or Mega Man level, they're no where near the level suggested for characters like Shantae, at least as of right now.

You're right that eventually the rule will be broken, the thing is though the rule hasn't been currently and nothing given to us has suggested that it will change anytime soon. For an offhand example, lets say there's a space station that flies by every night at 8:00 right above your house, it's been that way for years and it hasn't changed ever since. Yes, one day it could shift off course and you're surprised by the change, but it's been in that pattern for so long that the likelihood of it changing isn't exactly in that scenario's favor. That's the case with third parties as they are now, we have the statement and the precedence that suggest that it's not going to shift as of this point, it's something that has remained consistent and probably will be until something knocks it off course. You can't work just by maybes, you have to consider what has happened prior just as much as you have to consider what could happen later. Things can change, that's why many of us are not giving 0% even if we think she's not likely at all, but as of right now, we do have the precedence that does not work in her favor and that is something we should consider.

 

[Sid-cada]

Time for a crackpot nomination.

I nominate Roruken's Saitou Hajime x5

Too crackpot. Not only a Manga Character, he doesn't even have any games on a Nintendo console (A requirement for a character to be eligible for this game).

 

[colder_than_ice]

Shantae
Chance: 4% - Let's get this out of the way, the lack of exposure Shantae has in Japan hurts her chances a lot. Sure a Japanese release is planned but we have no idea how successful it will be yet. In my opinion the best chance Shantae has of making it in to SSB is for Sakurai to decide that there needs to be an indie games rep. I'm not entirely sure who the front runner for an indie games rep would be but I imangine Shovel Knight and Quote would give her at least some competition.
Want: 50% - I'm completely neutral here.

Inkling prediction: 42%

Nominations: Henry Flemming x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[Scamper52596]

The longer you hold onto the "iconic" mentality with third-parties, something that no longer exists with Nintendo newcomers, the more its going to sting when the "rule" is broken, whether it be this time or next or whenever, because eventually it will break. Third-party inclusions are unpredictable, Sakurai is a liar, the indies are super motivated, some are fairly close with Nintendo, and popularity is pretty important nowadays.

I commend those people who try to apply logic and precedent to the third-parties, however third-parties are debatably the most unpredictable part of the roster. For every Sonic and Mega Man, there's a Snake and a Ryu. You think arguing logic and precedent would've ended up in favour of those two prior to their inclusions? Not to say logic and precedent aren't unimportant, but Smash fans should recognize that when it comes to creating and therefore predicting the roster, you've got to think outside the box as much as you're going to think inside it.

I'm not saying everyone should start expecting an indie, but opening yourself up to the possibility couldn't hurt.

How exactly were you expecting people to vote for an indie? I understand the point you're trying to make, but this is a thread that asks us to rate each character as logically as we know how by using the limited knowledge we have of roster picking, interviews, and past sequence of events that has lead up to any character reveal. People are going to rate how they feel, and for an indie character this is exactly how the people feel. There's no precedent to work off of besides Sakurai stating what it takes to get a third party in Smash, and the fact that every third party inclusion has been iconic. Until the "rule" is broken, this is just how everybody is going to vote on indie characters because there's no reason for them to believe that an indie will get chosen to be on the roster.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Literally just missed the day. ****. I if I can still at least make my nominations, I put down 5 for Wolf

 

[Warlock*G]

Too crackpot. Not only a Manga Character, he doesn't even have any games on a Nintendo console (A requirement for a character to be eligible for this game).

Saitou was a support character in Jump Ultimate Star for the Nintendo DS.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I don't see your point with Snake and Ryu. The former is stated to have revolutionized the stealth genre while the latter pretty much kickstarted the fighting genre, how are those character characters not notable? Even if you're arguing that they're not Sonic or Mega Man level, they're no where near the level suggested for characters like Shantae, at least as of right now.

You're right that eventually the rule will be broken, the thing is though the rule hasn't been currently and nothing given to us has suggested that it will change anytime soon. For an offhand example, lets say there's a space station that flies by every night at 8:00 right above your house, it's been that way for years and it hasn't changed ever since. Yes, one day it could shift off course and you're surprised by the change, but it's been in that pattern for so long that the likelihood of it changing isn't exactly in that scenario's favor. That's the case with third parties as they are now, we have the statement and the precedence that suggest that it's not going to shift as of this point, it's something that has remained consistent and probably will be until something knocks it off course. You can't work just by maybes, you have to consider what has happened prior just as much as you have to consider what could happen later. Things can change, that's why many of us are not giving 0% even if we think she's not likely at all, but as of right now, we do have the precedence that does not work in her favor and that is something we should consider.

She means there's an unexpected choice not everyone would've expected. Like Snake when Brawl was revealed and Ryu before he was leaked even though fighting characters has been neglected by Sakurai.

 

[jahkzheng]

Moist the main snails! It's Shantae voting time!

Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...

These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.

Shantae

Popularity
Ah, I remember when I felt special that I knew who Shantae even was and was a fan. Now it seems like Shantae has busted out of obscurity with this ballot thing, at least relatively. She's never been more popular. She always had her small and dedicated fanbase for which I was a part, but now it's spread beyond that. Pirate's Curse likely helped. In terms of third party characters, she's easily in the top 10 in popularity which is quite remarkable really. Among so called "indie" third party characters she and Shovel Knight are clearly tops. Among all wanted newcomers she's still often in the top 10. This is all based on stateside polls however. She's still fairly unknown internationally due to her games not being localized, most notably in Japan.

Importance
Shantae qualifies as "indie" being developed by the small American company "Wayforward". She has been around for a while though, longer than many realize who must think she's come out of nowhere. She's also maintained a strong relationship with Nintendo throughout her history. She's more important that she might seem, but unfortunately isn't saying a lot. She still beats just about all "indie" competitors in this category however. Still, her level of importance simply doesn't compete with the big iconic third party names out there from big third party companies. Obviously, she's the character that her series is named for and the main character, so within her own series there's no one more important.

Uniqueness
Shantae is bursting with uniqueness. Maybe too much in some cases. Her most iconic feature is her huge pony tail of hair that she attacks enemies with. This would obviously be her most common "weapon" in standards. Although Dixie would probably use her hair a lot too and make Shantae less unique in that regard. Shantae would have greater reach though, heh. She can attack in other physical ways though including kicks and spins and uses many actual weapons including swords, guns, cannons, and weird things called "pike balls" in a number of different ways. She uses several different items in her games to help her progress along as well. Her biggest opportunity for uniqueness though might be just too much for this game, and it's her dances and transformations. Shantae can dance and transform into various creatures including a monkey, mermaid, spider, harpy, and many more. Every transformation gives her special abilities and moves. Transformations are out in Smash 4, but there's a chance Shantea could transform for single moves or something, but that would be a ton of work and data for one character. Her dances can also heal her let her warp to different places. Any way you look at it, Shantae has a ton of potential and Wayforward would likely be more than happy to give Sakurai and co more ideas than they could possible use.

Relevance
Shantae is pretty relevant right now. Pirate's Curse came out on Nintendo Eshop on both 3DS and Wii U within the last 6 months. She also has a game now in development that was helped along by a kickstater called Half-Genie Hero. Half-Genie Hero will be her first venture into 3D, at least artistically. All this has been and is planned to be on Nintendo systems too.

Representation
Shantae is the main character of her game and her game isn't represented at all currently. Although her importance is in question, yes, Shantae's games could use some kind of representation for her popularity and devotion to Nintendo. I see that as being via an Assist Trophy sooner than I see it being through a full character however. And, of course, there's many big names from Nintendo and beyond that seem likely to be considered much sooner, and the number of DLC characters we get may just not be enough to justify Shantae's inclusion for Smash's developers.

Limitations
Two major things limit Shantae. Being a third party property of a small time company and being still fairly unknown and "uniconic" due to her lack of localization. These hurdles are quite big. Still, I'd say Wayforward's loyalty and history with Nintendo coupled with Shantae's relevancy and recent success means she still has better odds than Banjo or other "indie" third party characters. Big name third party companies with iconic characters that have been loyal to Nintendo are much more likely still, even if they aren't as relevant in many cases. I also wonder a bit about how Nintendo would feel about Shantae's appearance. It's a bit revealing. I know, "Zero Suit", but Zamus actually has fairly good "coverage". Shantae basically wears a bikini top. Maybe if this was Brawl I'd have little question but the game is rated differently now. Could mean nothing however, and this certainly isn't the biggest limitation for a cartoony little half-genie girl.

Final Assessment

Chance: 8.5%

Shantae just has too many limitation to have much of a chance. I still think she's got better odds than Shovel Knight and Banjo but that's about it for the short list of characters she beats imo. She beats Shovel Knight because he has all the same limitations as her, but he has less history or history of Nintendo loyalty. She beats Banjo imo because dealing with Microsoft property seems like too big of a hurdle and something Nintendo would avoid. At least Wayforward is actively interested and a small loyal company that would benefit with Nintendo from this possibility.

Want: 85%

As a long time fan of Shantae's games and her character, I know just how amazing she would be. Few characters are as wanted for me as Shantae. I put a good deal of my own money down for Shantae's kickstarter of Half-Genie Hero and I'd do the same for her inclusion in Smash if I could. I know her odds are really bad though and I'm not actually expecting her. I'd take an Assist Trophy or anything however. Any recognition at all would be awesome. It would get her foot in the door. And with her boost in popularity and relevancy recently, there's hope she could find a place in Smash by the next iteration... assuming the pipe dream of her getting in as DLC doesn't happen of course.

~~~~

Here's how I think the thread will vote for Inkling...

Prediction for Inkling

Chance: 53%
Want: 48%

~~~~

2 Points to Snake~
2 Points to Sceptile - (that one's for you Delzethin!)
1 Point to Bayonetta?

I don't want to pick Wolf because I don't think it would be interesting even though I really want him too.

 

[BluePikmin11]

"Any video game character can be voted on the ballot."
Really, nothing given at all?

 

[colder_than_ice]

SHANTAE
CHANCE: 9.17%
WANT: 46.48%​

Shantae managed to beat only Banjo in "Chance". Third parties are not going to do well at this are they? Next up we're rating the Inklings!!! I've been looking forward to this day . Also please predict what score Rayman will get tomorrow.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Inklings Likelihood: 40%
Want: 60%

Rayman: 17%

6+ DLC characters x5

 

[Seanp12]

Inkling
Chance: 60%
Honestly, this all rides on the potential success of Splatoon. If it turns out to be a decent success, probable. If it turns out to be a killer app, then it's a lock. If it flops, so does the Inkling's chances. I'm betting on "decent success."

Want: 10%
Like with Shantae, my opinion here rests entirely on other people's desires. I'm not a fan of online multiplayer, so Splatoon doesn't really interest me. On the other hand, I definitely would prefer it to do well, and as I said in the chance section, I think that the Inklings' fates rise and fall with Splatoon's.

Rayman
Prediction: 30%
Rayman has more name recognition than Shantae and Ubisoft doesn't make consoles like Microsoft, so I think he'll rate higher than B&K or Shantae. Nonetheless, he's still third party, and that's definitely an obstacle.

Nominations:
Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x2