Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[jaytalks]

I don't think Sakurai will seriously consider any non-lord characters for this game. Lords are generally the most important characters in the game and as such, this is where I see the pool of characters coming from. Sure Anna might emerge as a contender in future Smash game, but she needs to build her importance more before I could see her. Perhaps by SSB5 that'll happen, but for now, I only see lords being in contentions.

As for the latter, I could go on about how I feel Roy has the best chance out of the Fire Emblem contenders. I won't deny that he has competition, but I don't feel that they're so overwhelming that Roy won't return.

I said Robin not Anna. Robin is a main character in Awakening and serves the same role as a main lord. His/Her class is exclusive to his/her line. His/her death even triggers a game over. For that matter, I would not even discount Micaiah completely. If you don't believe in that recency and relevancy hugaboloo, she is a main character with her own exclusive class who triggers a game over with her death. If you believe in hugaboloo (not you in particular SSBF), it would be a good idea to admit it. Prior to 10, there were no main characters that weren't lords other than Celica (who appeared way back on the NES).

I'm the wrong person to ask about Roy vs his competitors. As far as I can tell, he has virtually the same factors going for him that he did in Brawl, other than his popularity. But as I've said before, being "the most wanted" doesn't matter too much because popularity just gets you to the show. You need your other factors to get you in. And there is no suggestion he is the most wanted by the measures that Sakurai's team uses to gauge popularity (which we don't know).

 

[Groose]

Lip (Panel de Pon)
13.69% chance
34.81% want
Lip managed to crack the top thirty, which is decent at this point in the game. Despite her cutesy appearance and he relative obscurity, she found her niche in the want department,. Heck, she beat Geno!

Roy (Fire Emblem)
40.42% chance
48.87% want
Our boy Roy improved in his second outing, but not by a huge margin. His chance rose by about 2% and his want rose by about 3%. Even so, he still remains comfortably at the bottom of the Veterans list... in both chance and want. Still, he proved more popular and more likely than most newcomers.

Today, a very puzzling newcomer will attempt to solve the mystery of how one becomes a playable Smasher. He is Professor Layton, a third party character from Level-5 and the star of one of the most noteworthy new franchises of the last decade. Please leave your chance and want on Professor Layton today.

Tomorrow we'll be rating a character with whom everyone here is familiar. He is Falco, and he has been a mainstay on the Smash scene for two games now. Please predict how Falco will fare in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Glaciacott, who came exceedingly close to the real score. Enjoy an extra five nominations.

Before I go, I'd like to mention that Chrom has been added to the nominations list once more.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Layton: 4%
Want: 0%
Falco: 99%
Nominate:
Chrom score lowering plan a go-go x 4
Yarne x 1

 

[Glaciacott]

Woot!

Layton
Chances 18%
I think he's not someone we can dismiss easily. His series really has done something for hardware sales, and they're just really, truly fantastic games. If he were first-party Nintendo, I'd say he's a shoo-in.
But sadly, that's not the case, and I feel like it's the third party situation that makes him unlikely. At least in my opinion, since any new third party to me has to be weighed against Pac-Man, and that guy is just so tremendously iconic. So, though luck for the professor.

Want 90%
Not the top in my wants, but if he joined I'd be pretty damn satisfied. I removed some percentage as, really, Pac-Man is my third party of choice and the last I'd include.

Falco
Prediction 96.86%
Considered by many to be a mainstay since Melee, I'll reduce his score a couple points to account for those who expect one of the spacies to leave and choose Falco's absence over Wolf. Nevertheless, I believe most people should expect all current Star Fox characters or sans Wolf.

Nominations
x10 Ashley

 

[Starbound]

Layton's chances: 10%
He's not legendary which third parties need to be to get in. He's joe shmoe compared to guys like Mega Man and Sonic.

Want: 35%
Don't want him because he's in a completely different league from the third parties we already have.

5x Nomz Mach Rider

 

[Starcutter]

Layton chance 15%

Want: 50% sure, why not.

Falco: 87% there are some people who doubt his inclusion since he's a clone

5x nom nom noms kamek

 

[Smasher 101]

Layton's chances: 15%
Want: 35% - Meh.

Falco prediction: 95.17% - Might be a few doubters, but I think most of us will rank him in the high to upper 90's.

Well, now that Falco's up, I suppose I'll move on to the only one of of my top ten newcomers that has yet to be rated. (I think he's the only one, anyway...)
Meowth x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Layton: 15%
He's got some major 3rd party competition right now and it doesn't help that he's only 6 years old compared many others

Want: 60% He seems pretty cool from what I've seen.

Falco: 90%

5x Impa

 

[colder_than_ice]

Layton
Chances: 13% - Level 5 has been working very closely with Nintendo, unfortunately he has enormous competition from other third parties.
Want: 100% - He is my most wanted third party. I'm only giving him 100% because I can't give him 200%.

Falco Prediction: 97%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Yams]

Layton
Likelihood: 2% I don't see any more than FOUR third parties, which is already stretching it, I don't see anyone passing Snake, Sonic, MegaMan, and Pac-Man.
Want: 50% Haven't playing his games, but he seems pretty cool.

Falco: 95% Falco should get in over Wolf.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Layton
Likelihood: 9% - As a third party, he has little chance of getting in, especially since there are more obvious third party reps.
Want: 0% - Ehhh, not at all. There are far more deserving characters in my opinion, especially since third party spots are limited.

Falco: 90%

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Professor Layton: 0.5% I am at the belief that all third parties are reviled at the beginning and I think that PAC-Man would come before him
Want: 0% NO MORE THIRD PARTIES!!! DO I MAKE MYSELF CLEAR!?

Falco: 96% aint nobody wanting him to leave (I don't think)

x5 Kamek (just stay in front of slime and you can go after Bomberman)

 

[Deleted member]

Professor Layton
Chances: 16%
Layton has very close relations with Nintendo and has appeared on Nintendo's consoles for a very long time. If Level-5 was a second party to Nintendo, he would be a shoo-in! But... unfortunately they are a third party company and this hurts his chances. We have a lot of heavy hitters from the third party department such as a possibly returning Snake, a wanted Simon Belmont, a possibly leaked Pac-Man, and the very safe Sonic. He is a step above among some third party characters that we have yet to discuss about. I should also mention to possible naysayers that believe that he can't fight. Sakurai has worked on characters that have absolutely no moves initially and a great example of this is Captain Falcon. All of Captain Falcon's moves, such as the famous Falcon Punch, originate from the Super Smash Bros. universe meaning that Layton can be easily given a moveset. To further prove my point, Capcom converted Phoenix Wright as a fighter in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 so Layton can easily become a fighter in SSB4. His games are also quite popular and I have seen some demand for him which definitely helps in his favor. As it stands though, Layton does have better chances than most third party characters but some hefty competition hurts him.
Want: 55%
Why not? I don't support him, but he would be cool to see as a fighter. However, I DEFINITELY want Sonic more.
Falco Prediction: 97.4%
I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Falco will get cut.
Nominations: Bowser Jr. 4x, Captain Rainbow 1x

 

[AEMehr]

Professor Layton​

~ Chance ~​

37%​

+ Professor Layton is from the incredibly popular DS franchise of the same name. His games have sold over millions of units, making him a very notable third-party franchise. One that is mostly Nintendo Exclusive, only with Layton making appearances on Mobile Phones in Japan as well. What makes Layton unique is that while he is a Third-Party character, all of his titles are exclusively published by Nintendo outside of Japan. The first game has received several awards alone and has sold over 4 million copies worldwide (One million being in Japan alone). Layton currently has his own official Nintendo run website and has been selling millions of units per game. The second one being the fastest-selling DS game ever released in the UK.​

But why does this matter, you ask? Well Layton is obviously a well known gaming icon. Not as large as say Mario, Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, and Pac-Man, but one non-the less.​

+ Layton's creator Akihiro Hino has previously stated that we would love to see Layton enter crossovers like Mario Kart and Super Smash Brothers. Layton has enough ties to Nintendo to be considered to be playable is important enough in comparison to other Third-Party characters.​

+ Layton's ability to be a unique character is outstanding. While he is skilled in fencing, he is also able to solve various brain teasers and come up with many on the spot. Perhaps creating a new moveset regarding Layton dishing out Puzzles for opponents to be trapped in and have their character become stunned trying to figure the puzzle out. Of course this also allows Layton to create some interesting weapons, most notably his slot machine gun from Unwound Future.​

+ Layton, unlike another Third-Party character -coughsnakecough- would actually fit in a Smash environment in both character and style.​

​

So if Layton has all of these positives going for him, why is he ranked 37%? Well...​

​

- Despite Layton being the next logical third-party character, there is one thing that stands in his way. That is Pac-Man. Pac-Man is undeniably the only other new Third-Party character that would make sense right now, mostly because of Namco's presence in assisting with game development and many things hinting to it. As sad as it is, Layton will probably not happen this time around unless Sakurai decides to surprise us.​

​

~ Want ~​

100%​

If we could only have one more Third-Party character, it should be Professor Layton. It just makes complete sense in pretty much every way possible, it's just such a shame that Pac-Man is literally ****-blocking Layton.​

​

Falco​

~ Prediciton ~​

86.8%​

There will probably some people doubting him, but he's going nowhere.​

​

​

Nominations -​

x5 Slime​

BECAUSE HE'S GOO'​

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Layton
Chance: 7% He's close enough to Nintendo to be considered, but he's not iconic enough to overcome the whole "Is a third party" thing. I don't think it's gonna happen.
Want: 50% On one hand, I like Layton and think he could bring a lot to the series. On the other hand, 3rd parties need to be a minimum, and only exceptional cases should get in. I don't think he fits that bill, so 50% sounds good.
Falco prediction: 93%

Nominate Mona x5

 

[FalKoopa]

A true gentleman leaves no puzzle unsolved ~ Prof. Layton

Likelihood: 15%
He would have been a shoo-in if he were a Nintendo character. His company, Level-5 is closely associated with Nintendo and Akihiro Hino is a good friend of Sakurai, so we may see a Snake situation again.

Want: 100%
When I came to SmashBoards, I knew nothing about Layton. Then I read though the Layton thread, and decided to give his games a shot, and I got hooked to his games immediately. And thus, he became my most wanted 3rd party character.

Falco prediction: 98%
He's a shoo-in, nuff said.

Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[Xenigma]

Professor Layton - 0%
No chance whatsoever. Yes, his games are very well liked. Yes, they sell well. Yes, he's clearly identified with Nintendo consoles. Y'know what he's still not? A first party character. If he was, sure, I'd say he has a great chance even, but being third party changes the rules tremendously. Basically, if you want to be in Smash as a third party, you can't simply be a popular character on Nintendo systems, you've got to straight up be a video game legend. Sonic, Mega Man, and Snake all fit that bill handily, though the latter's Nintendo qualifications are admittedly shaky. Professor Layton? He's done very well since his debut in 2007, but he's no legend, not yet. If he's still a system seller by the next Smash in half a decade or so, maybe it's worth reconsidering, but for now, I don't see him being nearly special enough to be worthy of inclusion, or even consideration to be honest.
Want - 0% - Would be a curious inclusion, but I think it would be a mistake to include him in Smash at this point.

Falco Prediction - 95%
I don't see him being cut at this point, and I imagine most users here agree.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[jaytalks]

Professor Layton:
Don't have a lot to say about this character, other than I'm excited he will be in a crossover with the Ace Attorney Series. I don't think he's reached icon status yet, but I do think he seems like a character that Sakurai might add. However, I'm not betting on any other third parties other than the big four, unless Snake is switched out for a Belmont.
Likelihood: 3%
Want: 50%
Strong ties with Nintendo, interesting moveset. My aversion to more third parties is why this rating is on the low side.

Falco Prediction:
88%.

Nominations:
Slime x 5

 

[Opossum]

Professor Layton time!

Likelihood: 18%

To be honest, these are really good odds for a newcomer third party. He has really strong ties with Nintendo, to the point that he's pretty much a non-Nintendo character in name only. Plus, he can have a unique fighting style based around puzzle-solving and fencing.

Want: 68%
After reading the Layton thread, he'd be pretty cool, despite me never having played his games (maybe some day...).

Predicting a 92.45% for Falco.

Nominating
Snakex5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Layton: 8%

Better chance than most third parties but....

Aside from Pac-Man I can't see any other new third party characters...

Want: 50%

Neutral, maybe that will change once I play Ace Attorney vs Professor Layton.

Falco Prediction: 96%

One of the most likely characters to come back. A staple.

Nominations:
Snake x3
Mr. Game & Watch
Zero Suit Samus

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 4%
Want: 60%

Falco: 95%

Wolf x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Professor Layton: 23%

predict Falco gets a 95%

Ghirahim x5

 

[ToothiestAura]

Professor Layton:

Chances: .01-10%
I'm being generous with my range, mainly because I feel he has a considerable amount of support (even from those who haven't played his games). People seem to like the idea of him being in Smash, regardless of their familiarity with character - which is good for a Third Party. Layton is a legend in his own accord certainly, though not quite a gaming legend. Reviving point-and-click adventures counts for something, though, I suppose.

We could easily be thrown for a loop and Sakurai could have added him to the game - he's certainly got enough popularity and is essentially synonymous with Nintendo despite being a third party.

Want: 78-90%
Layton seems like a fantastic fit - he has a great design, a fun personality and some pretty good catchphrases. He's a character with numerous interesting possibilities - a puzzle gimmick would be fantastic. From what I've played - his games seem great.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Layton:
Chance: 12%Layton is identified often with Nintendo, to the the point that he is sometimes mistaken for a first party character. Sadly though, he is not. This lowers his chance by a considerable amount, and even though Layton is the most logical third party character(he certainly beats out Snake in terms of logic) he's not quite up to the legendary status of Sonic, Megaman or Pac-Man yet. If we get a Smash 5(and judging by what happens with third parties this time), I'd say he has a far greater chance, but fourth time isn't the charm for the proffessor.

Want: 60%
Would actually quite want. He seems very unique, and as I said about Lip a puzzle based character intrigues me.

Falco: 95%
Personally I prefer the wolf, but I know how ridiculously popular Falco is. Two time veteran probably isn't going to be leaving anytime soon.

Nominations:
X 5 Meowth

 

[loganhogan]

Layton! 100%, 100% No bias!

chance 30% He has close ties with Nintendo and blends in really well he could almost be a 1st party character! His games also sell a lot but he's not first party.

He's one of my most wanted 3rd party characters I think it's justifiable if I give him 100% for want.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Layton chance: 9%
Third party always has a slim chance no matter how popular they are.

Layton want: 10%
Doesn't seem like he has too much fighting potential.

Falco prediction: 94.99%
Falco is just too much of a good character to be excluded, also Smash needs more supporting characters (in my opinion) and cutting Falco won't help that.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Forde]

Professor Layton

Chances: 10% Third party, while being popular, I doubt he will be in.

Want: 5% Much more deserving 3rd party characters.

Falco Prediction: 95% I really can't see him being cut at all.

Nominations:
Cloud Strife x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Layton:

Likelihood: 7%

Want: 0%

Falco Prediction: 98%

Nominations:
5x Snake

 

[Fastblade5035]

Layton:

Chance: 9.5%
Like I said, he's not in a league of his own, but he's probably high up in the one that he is in.

Want, 50%
Indifferent

Falco: 89.7%

Noms:
Ephraim x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Slime x10.
I'm sick of watching Cheezey Bites stru-goo-l. These puns are harder than they look.

Now you know how I feel


Layton:
So, alot of people question what is needed to be a 3rd party include; and I'm one of them, Sakurai never made it exactly clear. A very special case could have many meanings, do they have to be legends in their own right (ala Megaman, Sonic and Snake) or perhaps they need a strong Nintendo connection (ala just Megaman so far). It can't be both 'cos Snake is in Brawl, though you can argue Sonic has a connection with Sega being VC. If it's the first then Layton doesn't stand a chance; he's hugely popular, but far too new.. but if it's the second...

Chance: 34%
Layton is a big seller, and there's a large enough DS/3DS demographic who buy the consoles primarily for Layton, that his inclusion in smash really could boost sales, and open these (mostly girls) peoples minds up to the rest of the Nintendo library. From a sales perspective I think Layton would be a huge draw, but it's a matter of the all-stars perspective we have to concider. Is he a star.. not yet, though he's making his way there imho, and he certainly would be an interesting character to play, and would bring a lot to the game. Layton may not be a particular fighter (remember those tweets, barbarism and all), but neither's Villager, and in smash he eats babies souls. In fact on the topic of those tweets, at least Level-5 have considered Smash, they may have put a persona of being against it, but it was clearly jokey, so I'm not sure I'd put much Cred into it.

Is he too new? Probably, but if Sakurai thinks he isn't then there's a bloody good chance he'll be in the game. Then, even if Sakurai didn't think him worthy himself, if he thought about him and mentioned it I think the sales department would have a few good arguments to bring up in light of the demographics it would open up.. enough to make Sakurai re-consider? Maybe not, but there's a chance.

Wants: 100%
With only a possible second to Slime (and then I'm doubtful) I think Layton would bring the most sales to Smash of any new third party character, and I want the game to be popular! That and I love his games, character, and think he'd bring a really interesting and unique play style to the game. Plus a Layton stage on the 3DS would be awesome.


Falco: 98%
A little less than Ganondorf, people will be worried that clones will be cut for time, and Falco brings less than Ganon. I (and I hope eveyone else) still think he's a shoo-in short of time constraints though.



Slime*5
(With Gr-ooze onside there's no way we can l-ooze to Kamek!)

*disclaimer: there are ways Slime could loose to Kamek*

 

[MargnetMan23]

Layton? 15% I'm too lazy to put thought into his inclusion but from what I've seen he simply may or may not XD
Want: 20% I DON'T KNOW!
Falco: 98.3% In an ideal world Falco would be cut before Wolf. This isn't going to happen. In another ideal world neither of them get cut... That world seems reasonably likely.
Mr. Game and Watch x3 Wonder Red x1 Omastar x1

 

[BlitznBurst]

chances - 1%. Layton may be popular, but he's not legendary. It's not happening.Want - 60%. Eeh, I... might see it working? I like his games plenty, but...

Falco prediction - 90%.

Ganon X5

 

[Curious Villager]

I'm actually pretty happy to see that Layton is doing pretty well in the want department of this at least and how some people started to support Layton (or at least started to like him and try the series out) thanks to my support thread. I'm very happy to hear that the Layton support thread assisted in getting some people to know of the Professor Layton series and all. ^_^ Anyway, I've never really participated in this but I'll just give my own two cents if Groose doesn't mind.

Layton's chances 40%: While his series have done really great ever since they started with Professor Layton and the Curious Village and the fact that it has a very close tie with Nintendo to a point where many originally mistook the series as being a first/second party Nintendo franchise. He is still a third party character and I believe that that's really his largest obstacle at the moment. However, even if that's the case interest for Layton and Smash Bros has been shown from the creator as he said that it would be a "wonderful opportunity" to have the good professor join the Smash Bros series. Not to mention during another time, Layton was requested to both Sakurai and Hino that Layton should be in Smash Bros so he definitely has the attention from both the big guys. I honestly don't think age really matters too much for Sakurai as he did put in the Wii Fit Trainer and her series is arguably about as young as the Professor Layton series (actually a little younger even) if we go by their very first Japanese launch.

Layton's want 100%: It would be wrong if the creator of the Professor Layton support thread would give him anything lower than 100%. He's my most wanted third party character after all and he's definitely a character that will hype me up the most if he were to be confirmed to join the Smash Bros series.

Overall, seeing the success of the series and how popular it became over the past 6 years, I do think that Layton deserves a spot in the Super Smash Bros franchise and it's not like the series is at all obscure or anything either, as even Miyamoto acknowledges the series mentioning it next to another big series like Animal Crossing, not to mention that the head of Nintendo of Europe is a very big fan of the Professor Layton series as well and that Sakurai at the very least knows of his existence (and apparently is also a good friend with Akihiro Hino, the creator of the Professor layton series). I'm not sure what Reggie and Iwata think of the Professor Layton series though. Miracle Mask was also the game that gave the 3DS a massive head start over at Japan when it was first released as a launch title. the franchise is overall at least well respected with Nintendo.

There is my two cents.

Falco: 99%

Meowth X1

 

[NickerBocker]

Layton

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%
Im not overly familiar with the character or his games. He seems to have some fair support. His games have been received well. Im just not interested.

Falco: 73.2%
I have a feeling this is gonna be somewhat all over the place.

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Layton

Likelihood: 5% - Honestly, even though he's popular and all, he lacks the star-power Sonic, Megaman and Snake have. If we show Layton's picture to people on the streets, not many would recognize him, while all the other third-parties are very well-known

Want: 0% - I just don't see him fitting

Falco: 93,4%

Nominations:
Primidx5

 

[BluePikmin11]

You know, it does not alway have to be reliant on "star power" when it comes third parties.

 

[BlitznBurst]

You know, it does not alway have to be reliant on "star power" when it comes third parties.

That's funny, I'm pretty sure that's what Sakurai meant when he said "Third parties have to be legendary." The only way to even try and reinterpret this quote is whether he means in terms of overall popularity or popularity among the Smash fans - neither of which Layton has.

 

[Ephecus]

Professor Hershel Layton

Chance: 7 %
In my opinion third-party characters that are not named Sonic or Megaman have almost no chance of getting in.
Despite Laytons recent popularity and the strong connection between Level-5 and Nintendo his third-party-status just hurts his chances too much.

Want: 45 %
Not on my wanted list but seems like a unconventional pick. Could turn out to be a cool character, but I don't know much about him (I only played Professor Layton and the Curious Village).

Falco Prediction: 92 %
Many think of him as guaranteed.

Nominations:
Mr. Game and Watch x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Professor Layton

Chance - 3% - Sorry, but at this point, unless Sakurai pulls a surprise near the release date, we won't get any new third parties. He does have a greater chance than most others, though.

Want - 60% - Not exactly a fan, but he is one of the few third parties I approve of. Similar to Mega Man, he is so closely tied to Nintendo he kind of feels like one of their characters. For that, he gets my approval.

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Professor Layton:

Chance: 15%
Out all possible 3rd party characters, he is one of the more likely characters. That doesn't mean though any additional 3rd party characters not Sonic or Snake arelikely at all though.

Want: 20%
Hugely indifferent for his inclusion. I'd prefer not.

Falco prediction: 85%

Nominations:
Impa x 5