Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Question time. Are there still characters left worth rating who can actually get a decent score? The answer is yes, but most people aren't nominating them. and by decent score, I don't expect any of the characters I'm about to list to get in. buuuuut most are definitely in the possible Assist Trophy range and light years better than questionable nominees like Omastar, Yarne/Owain/Random Fire Emblem character X, Count Bleck, Chancellor Cole, Chef Kawasaki, and Athena Freaking Cykes. I'm not saying we shouldn't have fun nominating guys like those whatsoever. Most of those "stupid" days were a lot of fun. but there are mildly better characters to rate than any of these for those who think there aren't.

Here are some examples of characters who can do better than 1 or 2%:
Prince Fluff (Kirby)
Midna & Wolf Link (as opposed to solo Midna)
Birdo (Mario Bros.)
Mallo (Pushmo/Pullblox if you live in Europe... this one is coming soon)
King Hippo (Punch-Out!!)
Kalas (Baten Kaitos)
Alex (Golden Sun)
Felix (Golden Sun) (both solid AT material if Isaac were playable)
Petey Piranha (Mario Bros.)
Black Knight (aka Zelgius) (Fire Emblem)
Caeda (aka Sheeda) (Fire Emblem)
Tempo (HarmoKnight)
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land)
Urban Champion (Urban Champion)
Non-Specific Action Figure

Third parties who don't have a chance but are very noteworthy and/or Nintendo relevant:
Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
Jill Valentine (Resident Evil)
Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil)
Dr. Eggman/Robotnik (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Crono (Chrono Trigger)
Tiz Arrior (Bravely Default)
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) (we rated him as a team, let's do it solo)
Viewtiful Joe (Viewtiful Joe)
Maxwell (Scribblenauts)
Conker (Conker) (we did Banjo-Kazooie... let's do it for the want score)


AND for rerates, here are those, overrated and underrated in my opinion who can use a boost or reduction:
OVERRATED:
Bandanna Freaking Waddle Dee is the #1 most notorious offender.
Impa
Zoroark
Mach Rider probably a few percent
Porky and Masked Man
Daitoryo
Karate Joe
Genesect, Sylveon, and maybe Blaziken (he would definitely be reasonable with a new PT)
Doctor Kawashima


UNDERRATED:
Ghirahim and Captain Rainbow (both getting second chances soon)
Chrom, and a Chrom and Lucina Team
Wonder Red and Bayonetta (maybe a couple percent each, moreso Wonder Red)


I also think Andy is worth rerating with Advance Wars coming on the GBA VC. I don't know enough to tell you if I find it overrated, underrated, or spot-on, but I can't wait to try out the biggest Nintendo series I've never played.

1) For unrated newcomers, I mostly agree. I'm not quite sure that we need to rate the Non-Specific Action figure, though, and I think there are others (Jill Dozer and Mr. Resetti) that had roles in Brawl that we should rate. Also, the whole Midna thing is kind of questionable; I did a bad job of introducing her day. Some people considered us to be rating her solo, while some considered it to be any form of Midna.

2) I can't really think of any other third parties. Heck, you even acknowledged that the ones you mentioned don't have any chance.

3) I agree that Waddle Dee, Daitoryo, and Karate Joe are egregious over ratings. Karate Joe is explainable by the fact that he was presented (by me and to me) as the end-all Rhythm Heaven choice, the guy who would be in from the series if it got a character. I think he'd lose some major points in a rerate, but fan support will keep the others high. I agree also that Zoroark is overrated, but I rated him too low in the past. He deserves less than what He has, but more than what I gave him.

I'd also classify most of our Top Ten as overrated, but that's just me.

4) Ghirahim, I agree, is underrated. I have him at 15% and that's low if anything. Chrom is also underrated, but not by much; I need to update my FE projections before I can make a statement.

 

[Deleted member]

132%, or 1.32, divided by 1000%, or 10, is 13.2%, not 0.132%.
Similarly, 230% divided by 1000% is 23%, not 0.23%.

What I did was I added all of those percentages and divided them by the maximum total percentage (10 characters, 10 100%s, in total is 1000%).
However... the want is a more accurate number.

That's not how the math works... You should be dividing by 10 if you want to get the average chance (note that 10 = 1000%), but you divided by 1,000.

More importantly, averaging them does not not give the chance that at least one becomes an AT. If you think there's a 50% chance that Bandana Dee will be an AT, how can the chance of at least one AT from the top ten be less than 1%?

The correct number given the scores you gave individually, by the way, is about 80%. If we assume independence.

And this is a more accurate number for chance. Yeah... my math was pretty bad on this one...

Thank you both!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Top 10 AT Chance: 65%
Top 10 AT Want: 50%

Isabelle prediction: 3.4%
10% Chance Prediction: 28% Yeah a few of these are going to happen, but the community says otherwise

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates.

 

[Sid-cada]

Happy Mask Salesman

Chance - 0.03% - He's popular-ish and has some potential, but yeah, I don't think he's really competing.

Want - 0% - So many more characters are worthier than him, it's almost insulting.


RTC10 AT

Chance - 75% - To be honest, a large number of characters in there seem like likely candidates for Assist Trophy Material. Now that I have though about it, a large number of characters we support are just as valid as Assist Trophies. It would actually be kind of shocking for something like this not to happen.

Want - 50% - Really, it comes down to who it is. I'll rejoice if it's Chrom or the Miis, but cry my eyes out if it's Palutena or Ridley.


Predictions

Isabelle - 0.16% - Ha, she's worse off than Tom Nook and Mr. Resetti. She's not going to get far.

Below 10% playable - 5% - There's a reason they're rated low.


Nominations
Chrom Assist Trophy X5

 

[Chandeelure]

What's this? The "Waddle Dee is overrated" day?
Maybe my wall needs more heads...but, well:

-HMS:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-RTC10 AT:
Chances: 90%
Want: 50%

-Nominations: Sheik X2, Impa X2, Lor Starcutter X1

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I don't think I even want Karate Joe over the other Rhythm Heaven characters anymore.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Top 10 RTC Member as AT:

Chance: 75% - It basically boils down to Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, Takamaru and Bandana Dee, the others aren't AT material. Let's face it, not everyone is going to get the privelege of being playable, and the next best thing after that is being an AT (unless you're Ridley, in which case it's being a boss.)
If we're going by the leak for Palutena, she looks much more like a character in terms of details than an AT, and the stage with her temple also seems like big-time foreshadowing for something larger, so I don't think she's going to end up as an AT since she's much likelier as playable.
Chrom seems too important to just be an AT, he's the kind of character who's either playable or nothing.
Takamaru could potentially be this game's retro AT, ala Little Mac in Brawl, I'm kind of 50/50 on him.
I think both Shulk and Bandana Dee are much likelier as ATs than anything else, even if I like them.
So basically I think it's more likely than not we're going to see a popular character choice as an AT, it's far from the first time Sakurai would have done it.

Want: 60% - On one hand I hate seeing other people's very wanted characters get announced as ATs, but on the other hand not every one of these will be playable, and at that point being an AT is much better than nothing.

Nominations:
5x All Popular Newcomer Candidates

 

[Deleted member]

Nominations:
5x <10% Chance Character Playable

We're rating that tomorrow!

 

[MasterOfKnees]

We're rating that tomorrow!

Ah, thanks for the heads up. Going to change it then.

 

[Smady]

Happy Mask Salesman

Spoiler

0.1% Chance: The remotest of chances. Skull Kid was one of my most wanted newcomers for Brawl and I barely had the opportunity to reflect on how I felt about him for Smash 4. Oh well. Happy Mask Salesman and Skull Kid both appear in Ocarina of Time as side characters, that much is a moot point. Skull Kid not being in there almost completely negates HMS's shot, when it was already tiny.

70% Want: This would be a great surprise. HMS is an unforgettable presence in both of his games (I remember his mask side quests in Ocarina of Time just as fondly as his more well-known Majora's Mask appearance) and his inclusion would be a great way to recognize the subtler aspects of the Zelda series. A large part of its charm comes from its asides or background characters, of which I'd say HMS is the very best.

His playstyle writes itself if you think about all his various masks. He can use a pseudo Pikachu mask, a Mario mask, it's possible he'd even use a Miyamoto mask to finally represent the legendary developer himself in Smash Bros. Just as they work in Majora's Mask, each would give HMS a unique set of powers that would either work as an individual set, or more realistically simply let him perform a single move using the mask as inspiration.

It's an obtuse interpretation if you don't limit it to the Majora's Mask... masks but it'd be great fun as a moveset and represent this really fun character in the best way one can imagine. My only reason to go against the Salesman ever so slightly, is that it would lock out quite a few other deserving Zelda reps and I'm sure cause some controversy. His set would also be difficult and time constraining to develop, when, whichever way you explain it, he's not a popular candidate.

RTC Top 10 Assist Trophy

90% Chance: There is bound to be one that is an assist trophy. I would immediately rule out Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Pac-Man and Chrom. The first two are either going to be playable, bosses or just side content (trophy, sticker, music), an assist trophy could only be a total disservice and I think Sakurai knows this is true. Dixie Kong has nothing that I can see being interesting in an assist trophy so she will either be playable or side content. Pac-Man, I doubt they'd go to the trouble of obtaining rights for unless he was playable. Chrom is not quite as easy to explain as the others; I don't feel they'd break the pattern of blue-haired protagonist lord newcomers, just to give the new one an AT instead.

So that leaves Palutena, who I could see be an assist trophy to be honest, albeit far more likely playable; 10%. Shulk would simply follow in the footsteps of Saki in Brawl and is easy to see happen. 10%. Mii, sure, I could see an assist trophy and it wouldn't prevent from further Mii content in the game considering the character; 30%. Takamaru and Bandanna Dee are good assist trophy fodder too and fit common archetypes of assist trophies we've already gotten; 20% apiece.

Add up all the positives - and none of the negatives, as only one is needed for this - and you get a very high percent chance.

50% Want: I'm not sure how to rate my "want" for an obvious disappointment on one hand but "at least it's better than nothing" on the other. Some of these I would hate to see reduced to being an assist trophy (K. Rool, Pac-Man) but others I can see it working seamlessly and honestly wouldn't be all that insulting to the character (Mii, Bandanna Dee). It's a mixed bag and I'm ambivalent until I see what specifically would be chosen.

Isabelle Prediction: 0.35%
Not a recognized part of Animal Crossing as are Tom Nook and Mr. Resetti, already long shots.
Below 10% Playable: 10%
Are we getting too self-aware? Ah well, the 'RTC Top 10' one was fun.

N x10

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Masks:

Chance: 0%
I normally don't give out 0s to Nintendo characters, but when Skull Kid's an AT it just ain't happening.

Want: 5%
Suddenly Organ would be the best thing, but he so doesn't deserve a slot...



RTC AT: 99.5%
I have next to perfect faith that we've got it wrong somewhere and we'll get an AT of one of them.

Want: 100%
It does depend who, some I'd want playable instead... but in general getting the AT reveal would make a really interesting day on here.



The Mayor's Waifu: 0.33%
She's popular, but not for smash.

Woah, that's unexpected!: 16%
This is Sakurai, and there are some comparatively likely 3rd parties in that list... Still think people will vote low, but I'll be punting pretty high because I believe in Slime.




Also:

I've changed my mind!

I was discussing something with a friend at work (about adverts) and we created a theory that Megaman Legends 3 was an advertisement campaign for Capcom Unity, getting everyone to join without any interest in finishing the game. I mean they got a lot of interest, and then when they blamed the lack of Unity support for it's cancellation even more people joined to try and get it back up... if that was the intention it was a good job.

This got me thinking, Capcom teased/trolled/toyed with us by putting Aero in Soundrangers... they could do it again...

So I'm nominating:

ANY Megaman Legends 3 representation (including stickers and trophies)*5

 

[Arcanir]

Happy Mask Salesman
Chances: .01% There are many Zelda characters that beat out this guy.
Want: 1% Like the character, do not want him in the game.

Top 10 AT
Chances: 85% While I can't see it for a good number of them, there are those on the list that do have a good chance of getting that treatment individually. Collectively, that adds up, and thus one of them getting that treatment is a strong possibility.
Want: 0% There's no character on the list that I want to become an AT.

 

[Pacack]

I'll start off with the priority for me.

Top Ten of RTC Chance becoming AT: 99.84%
I computed this in the only even remotely accurate way I could figure out and came up with this. The chances of any one of them happening is so ridiculously large (if I'm right on the percentages that I got (2, 0, 0, 60, 15, 5, 0, 7, 18, 47)) that I'd be shocked to see none of them in the AT role.

(Thanks, by the way, for giving me a 30 minute math lesson with my stepsister on how ridiculously difficult it is to compute this with anything close to accuracy.)

HMS: 2%
Not likely at all because of the other Zelda reps.

Predictions:
Isabelle: 8.76%
Statistical nightmare #2: 22.4%

Noms: Sheriff x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

(Thanks, by the way, for giving me a 30 minute math lesson with my stepsister on how ridiculously difficult it is to compute this with anything close to accuracy

Umm... isn't it just the inverse of the multiplications of the inverse? It's a lot of number plugging but I don't think it's exactly difficult?

I know I'm good at maths so maybe I'm underestimating how hard it is mind...

 

[Pacack]

Umm... isn't it just the inverse of the multiplications of the inverse? It's a lot of number plugging but I don't think it's exactly difficult?

I know I'm good at maths so maybe I'm underestimating how hard it is mind...

No. It's actually far more difficult than that if you want a truly accurate number...if I'm understanding you right.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

No. It's actually far more difficult than that if you want a truly accurate number...if I'm understanding you right.

I haven't done any lessons in a long time so I could well be wrong, but the way I've been doing things is:

Assuming the chance of three things happening are:

20%
40%
60%

The chance of all 3 is .2*.4.*.6 = 4.8%

The chance of at least one is the opposite of the chance of none of them happening, so the chances of them not happening are:

80%
60%
40%

The chance all not happening = 19.2%

ie. the chance of atleast 1 = 100-19.2 = 80.8%



I've used this to work out a few chances on here, so if I'm wrong I'm sorry that my numbers were inaccurate...

 

[Pacack]

I haven't done any lessons in a long time so I could well be wrong, but the way I've een doing things is:

Assuming the chance of three things happening are:

20%
40%
60%

The chance of all 3 is .2*.4.*.6 = 4.8%

The chance of at least one is the opposite of the chance of none of them happening, so the chances of them not happening are:

80%
60%
40%

The chance all not happening = 19.2%

ie. the chance of atleast 1 = 100-19.2 = 80.8%



I've used this to work out a few chances on here, so if I'm wrong I'm sorry that my numbers were inaccurate...

From what I've been told, the correct way to calculate this is with conditional probability...and having ten probabilities to calculate makes it impossibly difficult for me since I haven't had the chance to study it yet.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

From what I've been told, the correct way to calculate this is with conditional probability...which is something I haven't studied.

I have, and you bring up a good point which does pertain to this and make it more complicated you should consider statistical co-dependence...

This is particularly true as Dixie and K.Rool being playable each make the other more likely to be an AT instead of playable... I didn't consider this when I did my method... (although mine is heavily rounded so it wouldn't be accurate anyway.


I personally don't like probability that much, and hate the notation... so I guess I've kinda forgotten most of it

 

[Pacack]

I have, and you bring up a good point which does pertain to this and make it more complicated you should consider statistical co-dependence...

This is particularly true as Dixie and K.Rool being playable each make the other more likely to be an AT instead of playable... I didn't consider this when I did my method... (although mine is heavily rounded so it wouldn't be accurate anyway.


I personally don't like probability that much, and hate the notation... so I guess I've kinda forgotten most of it

I'm dreading the next concept. It's an absolute nightmare of a problem to solve.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

HMS

Chance: .4% - Not really.

Want: 0% - Better off as a trophy IMO.

RTCRT10CAAAT

Chance: 95% - Pretty realistic actually.

Want: 50% - Meow.

Isabelle Prediction: .6% - ???

RTCRB10CAAAT Prediction: - 45% - Yes for that too!

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[Groose]

-Nominations: Sheik X2, Impa X2

...do you have any idea what you're doing? Don't bring 's wrath upon this thread, you fool!

Happy Mask Salesman: .01% chance
He'a a popular (but not for Smash) character who has severe competition from both more recent, more requested, and more important characters. I'd say he's a bit higher than a true zero, but I wouldn't put any stock in him whatsoever.

Happy Mask Salesman Want: 100%
I love him, and I love/hate Majora's Mask. He's so creepy that I couldn't say no.

RTC Top Ten AT: 90%
Let's look through what I'd give them as playable and discuss roughly their assist potential, eh?

Miis: 75% playable
I would personally prefer they'd be ATs for pretty much the same reason as what @Glaciacott said, and I feel there is a somewhat respectable chance for this. However, I really expect them to be playable and there are other ways they could work them in, too.

Palutena: 75% playable
I think she's playable, and I doubt they'd change her from a Final Smash for anything but playability; as such, I doubt her chances of becoming an AT.

Pac-Man: 66% playable
He has no chance of getting in as anything other than a playable character.

Ridley: 60% playable
There's a very slight chance he becomes an AT like what was planned for Brawl, but I think his role will either be playable character, stage hazard or boss.

Shulk: 50% playable
I do think he'll be in the game in some form; he is one of Nintendo's newest, uprising children, and his situation resembles Isaac's pre-Brawl. If he isn't playable, I think he has a strong chance of becoming an Assist Trophy.

King K. Rool: 45% playable
He seems like he'd work as an AT, but I personally doubt it. If his strong demand doesn't make him playable, I half-expect him to be completely ignored. I could also see him as a boss just as much as I can an AT.

Takamaru: 35% playable
I could definitely see him as an AT, but I could just as equally see him ignored like in Brawl. I suppose there's a moderate chance of getting an AT.

Chrom: 35% playable
I'm still working on my FE recalculations, but I think it will be (Ike 60%, Chrom 35%, Roy 20%, Robin 20%, Chromcina 15%, Lucina 10%, Lyn 5%). In any case, I fully expect Chrom to get a spot as an AT if he's not playable, and I'm actually hoping that will be the case. Essentially, he is a likely AT pick.

Dixie Kong: 30% playable
I'm not sure she's AT material. She doesn't have an obvious feature that would lend itself to be an AT; her hair doesn't seem like it would be as much a saving grace for her in this role as it would as a playable character. I could see her throwing bananas, or grabbing people and trying to lift them, but... I think she'll more likely be playable or bust. Cranky4AT.

Bandana Dee: 25% playable
Bandana Dee isn't in my top ten to be playable; he's in a multi-way tie with the likes of Bowser Jr., Saki, and Krystal for twelfth and is behind Chibi Robo and Isaac. I actually see him as a very possible character to get an AT, much like Shulk and Chrom. His spear is something that could definitely differentiate him in that role, and the argument can be made that it is the one most suited to him.

To recap: Bandana Dee, Chrom, and Shulk are quite likely AT picks; Takamaru, Rool, Mii, and even Dixie aren't out of the question. All in all, I''d be pretty darn shocked if one of them didn't get the Assist Trophy treatment; keep in mind, there won't even be ten newcomers to go, and if one of these guys gets confirmed, the others suffer a reduction.

Want: Abstain
There are too many factors to consider here for me to make an honest score up. I'd assume it would be low, however, because my three most wanted are here and there are others here who I would like, as well.

Ghirahim x5

DAY OVER

"Whenever there is a meeting, a parting is soon to follow. However, that parting need not last forever. Whether a parting be forever or merely for a short time--that is up to you."

...my favorite video game quote, and one of my favorite quotes period. You know who said it? The Happy Mask Salesman.​

 

[Groose]

Happy Mask Salesman
0.62% chance
24.63% want
...must resist terrible fate joke... must resist terrible fate joke... GROOSE DROWNED.

RTC Top Ten Member as an AT
74.26% chance
41.62% want
GROOSE IS STILL DROWNING It's definitely not that he's too lazy to think of a joke...

Today shouldn't be as terrible as yesterday. In fact, it should be quite joyous! In one corner, we have Isabelle getting in, and in the other, we have a character we rated at less than 10% getting in. Please rate away!

Tomorrow we'll have a Hero of Light from Final Fantasy and Captain Rainbow. Make you predictions, please!

 

[Chandeelure]

-Isabelle:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Less than 10% getting in:
Chances: 50%
Want: 100% Bomberman...

-Hero of Light Prediction: 0,03%

-Captain Rainbow Prediction: 16%

-Nomination: Sheik X2, Impa X2, Lor Starcutter X1 (If someone wants to help me with one of this 3 nominations, I would be so grateful :D)

 

[Deleted member]

What's interesting about the RTC Top 10 AT has a very good chance of happening, but the concept is below 50%. We expect something like this to happen, yet we don't want it to.
Isabelle and <10% character is playable have been added to the Directory.

Isabelle, Miiverse's Animal Crossing Waifu (I saw two posts of people on Miiverse calling her hot... that's creepy)
Chance: 0%
I don't see why Isabelle would be chosen over Tom Nook or Mr. Resetti, both are popular choices for another Animal Crossing character. Also, she is in this pic with the Villager:

So... isn't she technically disconfirmed?
Want: 0%
I'm not interested at all.

<10% Chance is Playable
Chance: 10%
I... don't know how to assess this. There are some underrated characters that are on the chance charts that have less than 10% (like Ghirahim) that do have a legitimate chance. Others, however, have no chance at all (like Yarne and Owain Tag Team or Scrooge McDuck).
I can see maybe one get in, but even then I find their chances unlikely.
Want: 100%
That want is purely for Bomberman with his 4.94% chance. I want him to be playable more than anything.
EDIT: Outside of Bomberman, I would find some wackiness with a playable Slime, sheer awesomeness with a playable Master Hand, Toad should get his time in the limelight in Smash, and I would LOVE to see Banjo be playable!

Hero of Light Prediction: 3.83%
I think the general consensus is that if we get a Square Enix rep, it will be Slime or Black Mage.
Captain Rainbow Prediction: 10.53%
I can see his chances spike up thanks to the Little Mac trophy. It's just odd how he is pretty much a legitimate contender now than after when I nominated him for the first time.
I recommend you guys watch a playthrough of his game. It's rather interesting.

WARIO FANS!
Wanna help me out by nominating this with me?
Nominations: Wario Land Wario 5x
As I've stated before, this is not an outfit concept.
This is an overhaul concept where Wario will have his moves be more representative of what they are in the Wario Land games (including Wario World). This means that moves like the Shoulder Bash, Ground Pound, Wild Swing-Ding, Pile-Driver, Power Throw, Earthshake Punch, and Shaking are all accounted for in his moveset!

 

[Gunla]

Miiverse's Waifu Crossing (as Brawler stated above. It's creepy, it happens and you'll find it in the dark corner.) AKA, Puppeteer Goddess
Pros
+No. I find it hard to believe that there's one, logical and valid statement to give her a good rating that's above 5%. Remember the magical Sakurai rule that a new series doesn't get more than one character, unless that series's name is Fire Emblem. I'm fairly certain that there's going to be one person that will, but I'd love to hear an explanation.
Cons
-Already one AC character added. Not likely to be the next Fire Emblem.
-Tom Nook most obvious choice.
-Newcomers that have far greater chances, realistically are there. Ridley, Dixie, K Rool, etc.
OVERALL RATING: 00.01%
Want: 00.00%

Umm.... how do I rate this?!
Chances: 9.99%- I can't really easily do PVC on this. Half of <10 is plausible, half is overrated at 10%.
Want: 100%- Jack Frost.

Predictions:
Hero Of Light- 2.3%- Lightning FF recency overdose. It's not FF7 or FFXIII.
Rainbow Power! 13%
Nominations:
Little Debbie Ghirahim X5

 

[Smasher 101]

@Glaciacott earned a bunch of extra nominations; not only did she have the closest prediction for the Assist Trophy thing with the long name, but she got the Happy Mask Salesman's score on the dot. Enjoy your FIFTEEN extra nominations!

 

[FalKoopa]

Isabelle:
Likelihood: 0%
She's discomfirmed. She already appears in Villager's illustration (I call it this because the file is named illust.jpg), and Sakurai even mentions her in his quote - Isabelle must be surprised. So yeah, she doesn't have a chance.

Want: 0%
Tom Nook and Mr. Resetti are far better choices.

<10% character becoming playable or WFT 2.0:
Likelihood: 25%
Considering the sheer number of characters below 10%, chances are quite high that we get one of them.

Want: 100%
There are quite a few characters there who I want: Lyn, Fawful, E. Gadd, etc.

Predictions:
Hero of Light: 5%
Capt. Rainbow: 9%

Lip x 5

 

[Pacack]

Isabelle:

Chance: 0%
If she wasn't already pseudo-deconfirmed, then Nook would still eat up all of her chances.

Want: 0%
Give me Nook or give me death.

Surprise!:

Chance: 35%
A few of them are entirely likely. Collectively, they have a decent chance.

Want: 66%
I would enjoy the shock.

Predictions:
Hero of Light?: 2%?
Captain Rainbow: 7%?

Noms: Sheriff x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Isabelle - 0%
<10% character becoming playable - 60%

predictions:
Hero of Light - 1.1%
Captain Rainbow - 14%

Prince Fluff x3
Validar x2

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Isabelle:

Chance: 0%
No-one would want to beat her up would they? Also deconfirmed.

Want: 0%
As much as the internet has ruined Isabelle for me it's the internet I'd want to hit in the face, not her, so she doesn't even get that 1% bonus.


Slime and other 'unlikely' buddies:

Chance: 58%
As far as I'm concened Square Enix getting a rep is pretty 50/50 in my books, with Slime getting the Saber Lion's share (44% with current estimates), and yet none of their characters broke 10% on RTC.

Actually this is mostly fueled by 3rd parties... I think Simon Belmont and Snake have about equal chances right now at 10% and give a 0.5% or so Bomberman...

I also have a slight chance reserved for Banjo and Kazooie, but only slight. I don't entirely believe the theory that they're getting bought out by Nintendo, but it is true Nintendo need some kind of power play to get noticed, and that Rare have stopped working on Killer Instinct and only have one Xbox game in the pipeline... it lines up with the last buy out... actually I'm convincing myself of the possibility (if not likelihood) now I'm gonna have to raise the chance a bit more (it was 56% at the first time of writing).

Add in a few other unlikely characters possibly getting in to surprise us (Pichu stand out)... but really I feel most of the Nintendo owned <10%s are massively over-rated so no statistical nonsense here.


Ofcourse this is just characters, if we're talking Concepts then Fatal Frame music, playable boss mode and Pokémon AT all have enough of a shot to raise it by... I dunno, another 10% or so?

IF concepts are included: 68%


Want: 100%
Slime is less than 10%. Banjo is less than 10%. Belmont is less than 10%. There are certainly things down there that are deserving of being so low, but there are also some really cool things, and whatever does come up would be a really interesting surprise and make for an interesting discussion if nothing else.




Hero of Light: 0.8%
For some reason (SSF2) Black Mage is the front runner in people's eyes so it'll be lower.

Captain Rainboo: 8.55%
The Trophy doesn't change that much... but it will increase his perceived chances.


Megaman Legends 3 representation*5

 

[Smasher 101]

Isabelle's chances and Want: 0% - A second Animal Crossing character is extremely unlikely, and if there was one I think it would be Tom Nook, who I prefer.

<10% character: 15% - Only reason it's not 10% is because Chrom & Lucina and Andy are there, and I find them slightly underrated. I still doubt them and everyone else, though.
Want: 100% - Banjo, Meowth, Bomberman, Andy, and Captain Rainbow would all be welcome additions in my book, especially the first two.

Hero of Light prediction: 0.75% - No clue.
Captain Rainbow prediction: 9.40% - The trophy will cause him to get a increase.

Zoroark x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Isabelle

Chance - 0% - Yeah, Animal Crossing is going to struggle with another character, and even if we got a second, other characters definitely will get priority.

Want - 5% - While I don't Hate-hate her, she's a character that's really going to waste a spot.


>10% as Playable

Chance - 20% - Not completely unbelievable, due to having 90 (!?!?) such characters as of this moment, some of whom are relatively reasonable. Sheer numbers are on there side, but little more.

Want - 50% - All comes down to who gets selected, yet again.


Predictions

Hero of light - 0.24% - Yeah, should do bad.

Captain Rainbow - 4.95% - Maybe having a trophy would cause a mild increase.


Nominations

Chrom as Assist Trophy X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Isabelle Chance: 5% Could happen but I see Tom Nook happening first.
Isabelle Want: 50% Could be interesting to play as, but I never played New Leaf.

10% Chance Character Chance: 90% I'm highly confident I see this happening, there is a good chance we'll see 4-5 characters whom are not popular among the community, not everyone who is popular and "reasonable" will make it in the roster.
10% Chance Character Want: 100% Please, I would love to see the communities' rosters wrong yet again to prove that not all candidates will be the popular ones, especially after WFT and Villager, I bet were going to see more surprises on the get-go.

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates

 

[Toxicroaker]

Isabelle: 0.12%
Want: 0%

Under 10% Character Being Playable: 20% I think there is a chance that at least one of them will get in.
Want: 50% Chancellor Cole and Excitebiker bring this up.

Hero of Light: 0.51%
Captain Rainbow: 9.73%

x5 Dixie Kong

 

[Opossum]

Isabelle:

Chance: 0%
She's already de/disconfirmed.

Want: 0% in a Smash context.
It's not that I hate her...I really don't. It's just that at this stage in the game, we can't get another reveal as arguably pointless as her's.

Nominating: Dixie Kong x5, to see how she'll be rerated post Mac reveal.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Isabelle Chances: 0%. Nook, Resseti, and even Slidder would probably get in before her.
Want: 0%. She's Krystal 2.0. Of course it's a no!
Below Ten Chances: 95%. I almost gave this a 100, it's that likely!
Want: 100%. Kawasaki, Meowth... I want a lot of these.
Hero of Light: 0.6%.
Capt. Rainbow: 10.4%.
LORD DOME X3
Impa X2 (We need @Diddy Kong in here.)

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Waifubelle Chance: 0.1%
Why? Just why?
Isabelle is probably a one-shot character, unless future Animal Crossing games put you in the role of the mayor, in which case Isabelle will most likely continue to be your assistant. Though being mayor was most likely just for New Leaf.
Tom Nook and Mr. Resetti are much more recurring characters, and deserve to be in more than Isabelle.

Isabellaifu Want: 0%
I'd much rather have Tom Nook or Mr. Resetti, preferably Resetti.
Also, I would hate myself if I were to punch that thing in the face. It would be so sad.


>10% as Playable Chance: 80%
I doubt all the newcomers will be really popular characters that are considered "likely." We all know Sakurai, and he is bound to throw one more curveball at us, and hopefully that curveball is Sandbag.

>10% as Playable Want: 100%
Sandbag 4 Smash 4.

Want: 100%
There are quite a few characters there who I want: Lyn, Fawful, E. Gadd, etc.

It makes my day to see another Fawful supporter.


Hero of Light Prediction: 1.5%
Other Final Fantasy characters out-prioritize him, like Cloud and The 4 Classic Heroes.

Captain Rainbow Prediction: 10.2%
Not-So-Little-Mac Trophy increases his chances apparently.


Omnomnominations: x5 Roy!

 

[Smady]

Isabelle

0% Chance: Animal Crossing took until now to get the one rep, I find it hard to see it get a second in the same entry. If it were to happen, almost certainly it'd be Tom nook. Mr. Resetti is a distant third and almost impossible. When you take into account how Isabelle has already been used in promotional art for Villager, the idea she'd be a newcomer is quite ludicrous.

0% Want: Nook is the only rep I'd want to see from Animal Crossing, although Resetti would be hilarious. I have no connection at all to Animal Crossing that would make Isabelle have appeal.

Below 10% Playable
20% Chance: It takes one to accomplish the goal, there are some I very strongly disagree with so I bumped the score up from just ten-percent. Sakurai has thrown his share of curve balls and I'm sure it's possible we've all underestimated one character. Rosalina was at 15% in chance and got confirmed, knocking off 5% hardly makes a big difference. If you look at what's down there, it's easy to spot a few who could make it.

Ghirahim is the most immediate one, to be honest. He's a one-off Zelda villain but one that has insane potential for a good moveset and a good deal of popularity. Andy would be the first rep from the totally under-represented Advance Wars series that already had a very cool assist trophy in Brawl. Genesect could get in entirely on Game Freak/Pokemon Company's recommendation. That's just three out of dozens who have a realistic chance.

100% Want: I'd be unhappy if none of these characters got in, to be honest, there are some wonderful reps that are flying under-the-radar. Fawful, Bayonetta, freaking Hades? These would all be one of the best newcomers ever in Smash Bros. This unlikely base of characters would be great place to pick from if I were in Sakurai's shoes. If Rosalina was a huge success, I can only imagine how, say, Bayonetta would go down.

Hero of Light Prediction: 0.3%
Another third-party where the obvious picks take precedence, namely Slime and Black Mage.
Captain Rainbow Prediction: 10%
He's floating around the 4% mark, that trophy reveal and Sakurai's fondness for the character surely has created some believers.

N x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Isabelle: 0% for oth
>10 Char: 20%
Wanr: 100% One word: Lyn
HoL: 0.25%\
CR: 5.46%
Robin x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

>10% Character:

Chance: 20% - With WFT and Rosalina already here there's not much more space to include these kind of characters before it ends up hurting a much more deserving character like K. Rool, Ridley or Shulk, and I honestly believe that Sakurai knows what he's doing here and not just throw in too many random curveballs just for the sake of it. I believe WFT to be our token WTF character this go around, that's very much how Sakurai talked about her in the Direct and in interviews, which should take care of most >10% characters. Still leaving 20% there though, we are dealing with Sakurai after all.

Want: 0% - Call me boring or whatever, but there's a reason these guys are rated so low. Not many of them are Nintendo All-Stars, and not many of them are very requested either. I'd rather that we get more newcomers that please a lot of people rather than get newcomers that please much fewer people, one of the reasons these guys are so low in chance are because not many request them after all. Furthermore, after the initial shock factor the character's inclusion wouldn't be very special anymore, I'm specifically looking at WFT here who initially was pretty funny, but right now just seems very underwhelming in comparison to the other newcomers imo.

It basically boils down to me not wanting lesser characters to take spots from much more popular and deserving characters.

Nominations:
5x All Popular Newcomer Candidates