Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[BluePikmin11]

Snake Chance: 50% It's either a yes or no, it's up to Sakurai, which is why this score is 50%. I still remain incredibly neutral on his chances.
Snake Want: 85%

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates

 

[Gunla]

Snake? SNAKE? CLICHE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pros
+We would have heard official disconfirmation or seeing contracts expire a long time ago.
+No reason to cut the guy other than Nintendo or Konami revoking the lisence.
+Incredibly unique.
+Kojima's being vague, so he knows the answer, likely. He pulled a Sega with that Twitch comment.
+Kojima and Sakurai are still good friends.
Cons
-Recent statements Konami has made has dampened and hurt their affiliation with Nintendo.
-High-Ups may interfere, though this would likely cause some Melee EVO 2013 backlash.

Overall.. the odds are actually looking in his favor! There's no real good reason to remove him.
OVERALL RATING: 85%
Want: 100%- As a huge fan of Kojima, I'd be unhappy if he was gone.

Kunio-Chan
Chances: Equivalent of Panther. 00.00%- 5X obscure, 5X unlikelier.
Want: 00.00%- No.

Predictions:
RTC this acronym is long!- 15%
Unhappy Mask Bootlegger- .3%

Nominations:
Captain Rainbow X5

 

[Deleted member]

Kunio-Kun

0.1% Chance: A third-party from a retro game that wasn't extremely significant. River City Ransom certainly is famous and has its fans, but for the sake of Smash Bros it's simply not enough. Sakurai may use a dartboard to determine a third-party, sure, but there are hundreds of others who benefit from that mindset, at this level of prominence, the same as Kunio-Kun.

30% Want: I'm not a fan of River City Ransom but a brawler rep could be very fun and I know enough about the game to see why Kunio-Kun has appeal to fans of his game. Seriously, it's dumb that we don't have a brawler in a fighting game after all this time. While I'm not going to just zero-zero this character due to third-party "slots" it is obviously has an effect, what I dislike is that I want other third-party brawler reps before this one, namely Mike Haggar or Terry Bogard. They're long shots too, but I'd love if we got an SNK rep.

Solid Snake

85% Chance: Snake is a controversial one apparently, I can see why: Konami is not the most popular developer to Nintendo right now and Kojima's comments can be taken to be a positive or negative. If you believe that we're only going to get one or two new third-party reps, it makes sense for Snake to be removed to give extra time. There's also the small problem of Snake's only current-gen Nintendo game being a 3D remake of MGS3 instead of MGS: Twin Snakes, necessitating a huge amount of content for that game.

But he's a unique moveset that is loved by almost everyone who played Brawl. His reveal was a megaton announcement in 2006, completely surprising everyone. I think a good judge for this is if you look at Lucario or Falco, two characters who could have very easily been cut in Smash 4 or Brawl respectively - neither was due to their popularity to players. Snake is incredibly popular in Brawl and sees tournament play too, that is enough reason in of itself for Sakurai to go out of his way to re-add him despite the awkward climate.

I also just don't think Sakurai cares about Nintendo/Konami's relationship. If it mattered, I don't know why Nintendo let him put MegaMan in. Not as though, at the moment, Capcom is Nintendo's greatest ally. He will put in whoever he thinks will most please the fans and Snake is a fan favorite who ignited a tonne of hype for Brawl.

This is definitely a special circumstance and Snake's removal would be worse than Mewtwo, who wasn't played at tournaments or popular for players in Melee. Now Mewtwo is one of the most requested returning veterans and I doubt Sakurai will make the same mistake. If there are clones like Toon Link making a return, I find it highly unlikely that a massive third-party unique character is on the cutting room floor.

100% Want: I don't care about slots, Sakurai isn't juggling a Solid Snake and Pac-Man ball at the same time, I can easily see Snake alongside a new third-party. Solid Snake is an icon in video games who, unlike Sonic or MegaMan, has significant, well-received games coming out this generation. I love Metal Gear Solid and Snake's moveset in Brawl is one of my favorites.

I imagine that what we'll see could be Big Boss and getting representation for Metal Gear Solid 3 would be a dream come true. I remember vividly when I first got that game and played it from start to finish in a matter of days. There are so many good stages, assist trophies and tracks you can take away from MGS3 that would be a great boon to Smash 4. The potential there is infinitely good.

It would be shocking if Solid Snake was left behind. I could understand the reasons, but I'd feel resentful that Sakurai chose to cut a genuinely iconic character who has a great set all of his own and instead added back clones. That makes zero sense from a creative and fan standpoint, it's a cynical move that would be entirely because he can do it. To add back Snake is more than worth the time and effort.

Happy Mask Salesman Prediction: 0.5%
Popular character but everyone knows Skull Kid was the front runner for Majora's Mask.
RTC Top 10 Assist Trophy Prediction: 90%
Ten characters who may be passed over, this sounds incredibly likely to happen.

N x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Kuino-Kun

Chance - 0% - A third party who's old, dead, and buried. Why are we ratting him?

Want - 0% - Nope. What a waste of a slot.


Solid Snake

Chance - 83% - Not really changing my old score. Kojima's statement seems like something he would say either way, so I'm not really taking it into account. Really, Snake's currently in a situation similar to Brawl as he is in now, so I'm expecting a repeated performance.

Want - 90% - While he's a veteran that I would not mind going, I still think there should be no cuts on the roster.


Predictions

Happy Mask Salesman - 0.21% - He has his fans, but ultimately he's doomed.

RTC10AT - 64.65% - Lot of flame wars tomorrow. Some many want, others many hate. Overall agreement that it's likely, though.


Nominations
Chrom Assist Trophy X5

 

[Knight Dude]

I don't know much about the River City Ransom series, so I'll withhold any comments on the first character.

Snake

Chances: 80%: I want to say that, third party characters are hard to implement properly. So I can understand some doubt. I don't think Sakurai would want to get rid of such a popular character, especially someone who he put a lot of work into making fit with Nintendo's all stars. Thing is, this time he already has been shown to work well with these characters, and Metal Gear still has some kind of presence on Nintendo's consoles. With MGS 3 being remade for the 3DS. This isn't any different than the situation from Brawl honestly. The only way Snake is getting cut is likely just a lack of communication between Konami, Nintendo, and/or Sakurai.

Want: 100%: He's a completely unique character in Smash. He's fun to use. And he definitely was a popular choice among Smash fans. On top of this, he helped some MGS fans become fans of Nintendo's products, or at the very least the Smash series. And Smash fans, had become more associated with Snake and MGS as a whole. I see no reason why I shouldn't want him back. Snake is badass.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Kuino-Kun

Snake
Chances: I am honestly not sure what to think about him because there's good reasons he should come back, but reasons why he couldn't as well. The Konami/Nintendo relationship isn't at its best, and it can be a problem depending on how they feel. Similarly, there's also the Kojima quote, which could mean that he's trolling us but we can't ignore that he's telling the truth, plus his choice of words is not exactly comforting either as it a bit more negative then Sonic's was.

So due to that, while I lean more towards him getting in, he is the character I'm the most worried about, so I think this score would be a good medium between that: 75%

Want: 90% I'm not as attached to the character, but I hate cuts and I know a lot of friends and family who would love to see him back, so I definitely support his return.

 

[Tselel (5805)]

Kunio Kun:
I'm going to say 0% all around because I have no idea who that is.

Snake:
Chances: 50%
It's all up to Sakurai, man.
Want: 80%
I hate to see a good character cut, but someone has to fall out eventually...

Nominations:
Protoman x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Kunio Kun 0%
Snake 20%

predict:
Happy Mask Salesman 0.10%
A Top Ten RTC Character becoming an AT: 88%

Ghirahim x5

 

[Substitution]

Kunio Kun
Chance: 5%
Being third-party really dampers that hope.
Want: 80%
I loved the games he appeared in. And I'd love some more comedy in Smash.
Snake
Chance: 90%
The only way I see him out is either time or Konami.
Other than that he's a shoe-in.
Want: 50%
I see him coming back.
But personally I'm not a huge fan of heavy characters.

Predict:
Happy Mask Salesman 40%

Nominations:
Mudkip x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Ok, I'm going to have a relatively controversial post.

Abstain from Kunio-Kun.

Snake
Chance - 45%
The whole Kojima interview thing is something that in my opinion makes Snake harshly more unlikely than before. The fact of the matter is, as much as fans of MGS may want to believe that Kojima is a troll and he would totally do this ... now that March has passed and there's been no sight of Snake, there's a high probability that Kojima's comments were honest and he has no idea what's happening with Smash and finds Snake unlikely.
For him to think that at such a late moment in development hints very strongly that Konami was just simply never even contacted in the first place. I'm not saying this definitely is what happened, but with the situation the way it is I find it more likely that this is precisely what happened.
Now, there is a chance that perhaps the delay in confirming him could also be because Nintendo is waiting for a direct to mention something about him and maybe some sort of MGS content for Wii U or 3DS to go along with it, kind of to mirror the October (I think?) confirmation of Sonic along with Lost World. It's not extremely likely, but this is what keeps Snake at a 45% for me. If this doesn't happen at least by E3, or by the time we get a release date on the game, I will begin to consider Snake effectively cut.

Also, I just want to point out that while he was extremely unique and is a veteran and loved by many and all of that, the fact that he is third party means that he doesn't immediately get the safe foothold of veteranship in terms of chances. We don't know what kind of stuff goes on between Nintendo and Konami that may affect a contract or desire to work together, and that would affect his chances regardless of the moveset or fans or anything else that sets him apart.

Want - 30%
Snake is the definition of a character I really like in his game but want out of Smash. Kojima's games are fantastic, creative and quirky above everything. That man breaks the fourth wall with such dexterity that it constantly impresses me. I don't understand how someone is so good at creating a serious, deep, and engaging storyline based on such heavy topics and just as well he includes such silly easter eggs. That alone has made Snake such an icon and one I seriously like and respect.
However, all of that said, I am that sort of petty individual who believes that Smash Brothers should remain focused on the idea of Nintendo All-Stars. I am one of those people that believe that Smash characters need to be characters that represent a Nintendo gamer's experience, that represent the culture that Nintendo has created around its franchises, and that represent what they used to call the "Nintendo difference." Snake, regardless of how iconic he may be, doesn't do that. Even with games in Nintendo consoles, the fact of the matter is that Snake is a character whose impact is closest with Sony and the Playstation franchise, by result of the impact the MGS series had on those consoles. And yes, some of those games made it to the Gamecube and the 3DS, but that doesn't take away from the fact that in terms of gaming culture the MGS series has traditionally supported the Playstation. And now seeing other third party characters like Mega Man that just make more sense for Nintendo ... it becomes more and more difficult to justify Snake. In fact, in part it makes me see Snake as less deserving than the likes of Bomberman and Simon, Konami characters that were more present in Nintendo's history. That Snake was chosen above them because a Kojima-Sakurai friendship feels a bit wrong, and frankly it feels a bit like the Jigglypuff situation wherein a less deserving character makes it in by fluke and is suddenly more likely because of being a veteran.
And I think that's pretty much my biggest issue with Snake, and the reason why of all the Brawl character I cut him in all my rosters: between potential difficulty of contract negotiations and there being so many truly Nintendo characters deserving a playable spot, I can't justify giving him a spot in such a competitive roster.
Now, on one hand I feel it's wrong to feel like this because it makes me the sort of person to draw lines between consoles. I don't believe in this console wars garbage, and just like I have owned every Nintendo product, from N64 and Wii to Virtual Boy and e-Reader, I have also collected a large amount of Playstation products. But then again, Smash is not about being a collection of gaming icons, it's about being a collection of Nintendo All-Stars, so I believe my point stands.
As for the 30%, some want remains because 1) I think it's ******** when you get so good at a character and in the next iteration of the series that character is gone. It's a punch in the gut I got in Brawl when Mewtwo was absent, and I fear it again with Wolf ... I sincerely wish this on no one; 2) If Snake comes back, even if he lacks the Nintendo charm, he still brings with him a host of silly/awesome MGS quirks that made Brawl quite enjoyable; and 3) it increases the possibility that Konami and Kojima stop pushing the Wii U aside and possibly actually support it with MGS content.

Predictions:
Happy Mask Salesman 0.62%
That long thing: 76%

Nominations:
x5 Balloon Fight Stage

 

[loganhogan]

Kunio-Kun Alex
chance 1% want 0%

Snake
chance 90%
I think it's out of place to have Sonic return and not Snake.
want 50%

x1 Barbara the Bat
x1 Jill Dozer
x1 Dr. Wright
x2 Dr. Lobe

 

[Aqua Rock X]

The Sheriff took the Wild Gunman to jail. Hah! I get it.
KUNIO-KUN

Chance: 0% - N.O.P.E

Want: 0% - I'm running out of "creative" ways to say "no" here.

SNAKE

Chance: 65% - Eh, he seems likely to return to me.

Want: 95% - I don't like cuts. Besides, I thought he was interesting in Brawl. He was well made and he certainly stood out. The epic beard of gaming verses the epic moustache of gaming - I certainly want that to return! There was just something hilarious about his inclusion in Smash Bros. Speaking which, no Nintendo history? In May of 2006, Snake was revealed to be the first third party character in Nintendo's Allstar brawler, opening the doors for potential 3rd parties in the future. That sounds like history to me.

Happy Mask Salesman Prediction: .45% - Yeah, yeah, yeah, he will meet with a terrible fate...you know someone (or ten) will make that joke tomorrow.

RTCRT10CAAAT Prediction: 85% - Yep!

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Omastar
0.35% chance (was 0.19%)
25.85% want (was 11.63%)
Omastar's want increased drastically, and he did improve enough chance-wise to pass Yarne and Nintendog on the chance chart. Yippee!
.

Crap. He beat Yarne. This requires fixing jk.

Kunio-Kun: 0%
Want: 0%
Snake: 87.5%
Want: 100%
HMS: 0.24%
RTC T10 AT:43.56%

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Kunio Chances: 0%. 3rd party, next.
Want: 0%. Nope avi.
Snake Chances: 70%. Legal issues are the only things in his way.
Want: 65%. I'd be a little upset if he's not back, but I'd live.
Very long RTC anagram: 38.5%. I'm sensing some bias from this one.
HMS: 3.9%. Loooooow.
You know what? If Omastar got rated, might as well rate the real fossil lord.
LORD DOME X3
Heracross X2

 

[Chandeelure]

-Kunio-Kun:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Snake:
Chances: 41%
Want: 0%

Spoiler

-Nomination: Sheik X2, Impa X2 and Lor Starcutter X1

 

[Groose]

So, the topic of the day is Solid Snake, eh? I would do an Ace Attorney post, but I actually am having technical doing them nowadays... a shame, but I can emulate them as best as possible: by presenting arguments and refuting them.

Topic #1: Kojima's Quotes​

Kojima, Sakurai's good friend and the creator of the Metal Gear series, has stated
that Snake is "not likely to return." He did this on a Twitch stream, and looked sincere when
he said it. His word should be taken as is, and Snake is deconfirmed because of it.
​

OBJECTION!
If Snake were indeed in the game, Kojima would be under a non-disclosure
agreement. This means that he wouldn't be able to say Snake is in, and Kojima would be forced
to give a negative response or deny to comment. For proof, look to SEGA--a few months before
Sonic's confirmation, they said that they were hoping Nintendo would add him, much like Kojima said with Snake.

It makes sense that Kojima would deny Snake's inclusion; such a thing would be much more newsworthy and cryptic than
saying something like, "no comment." Additionally, Kojima is a confirmed troll. You think Sakurai is the trolling master?
Sorry, but he learned it all from his pal Kojima. Kojima's offenses include tricking players about the identity of the main character
all the way up until launch date and creating a fake development studio just to hide the fact that the game that had been
shown off was actually a Metal Gear game. Yeah. I think he's quite capable of lying, don't you?

Finally, I have one more point. Kojima is on good terms and is friends with Sakurai. You mean to tell me that Kojima hasn't
at least talked to Sakurai about Snake not being in? How on earth doesn't Kojima know if Snake is in or not? I'm sure that
Sakurai would have at least said, "Sorry, pal, but we can't get Snake in this time."

Conclusion: Kojima's recent quote has no bearing on Snake's inclusion in Smash. If anything, overanalysis of it leans in the pro-Snake favor; however, I am taking it as a completely neutral quote.


Topic #2: Snake and Konami haven't done anything for Nintendo.​

Solid Snake has little to do with Nintendo and is more of Playstation All-Star than a Nintendo All-Star.
He got in last time because of Kojima's begging, but he won't this time because Konami hasn't been supporting Nintendo
and Snake himself is blatantly abandoning the Wii U. Why would he be allowed to join again?
​

Well, you have to take into account that Snake made it in last time despite the fact that
he didn't have his eyes set on the Wii and the only game he'd had on Nintendo recently
was a Gamecube port. Nintendo did initially frown upon his conclusion, but Sakurai and Kojima
won them over then; why would they not do the same thing they did in the past? Also, Sakurai
has stated that he isn't a fan of console wars; he plays Playstation when he can.

Please keep in mind that this game has a much greater emphasis on promotion than the older Smash titles.
Nintendo has been realizing Smash's capabilities by revealing characters to coincide with releases, and also
possibly selecting characters based on how they plan on progressing in the future; young or rising characters like
Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, and Rosalina have been the ones chosen so far. Snake is not part of Nintendo's future like they are.

Also, the Wii U is really struggling. It needs all the help that it can get to fend off its rivals, which is quite unlike the Wii.
If Nintendo goes around saying, "play as this character, who is only on our competition," they will die.​

Conclusion: Snake's abandoning of Nintendo is a reason to be skeptical of his infusion, but history shows that it probably isn't an infallible obstacle.

​

Topic #3: Sakurai wants to return as many characters as possible.
​

First and foremost, Sakurai hates cuts. He has only ever cut one unique character, and he was even intended to return.
Why then would Sakurai cut one of the game's most popular and unique characters? Something like that wouldn't make
a great deal of sense, especially since Kojima has asked Sakurai to include him yet again.

Additionally, Sakurai stated back in July that he hadn't had to cut any characters yet. If he hadn't cut Snake at this point, he
would never do so because of something like time constraints or a change of heart; at that point, he should have been
under contract with Konami.

It's quite easy to say something like "we haven't cut anyone," but how true is that statement?
Maybe Sakurai forgot that Snake wouldn't be allowed to return. Also, speaking of allowing to return, maybe
Nintendo overode Kojima and Sakurai on the decision for the reasons I've mentioned above?​

Conclusion: It would have taken Nintendo interference to shut Snake down, and Sakurai definitely would have fought for him, as he did last time.
​

Snake's Chance: 66%
I think there is evidence on both sides, and both can make a valid, solid case for their positions on Snake. I do believe, however, that the evidence for the defense outweighs that for the opposition. Precedent is in Snake's favor, even if his relationship with Nintendo isn't.

Snake Want: 50%
Do NOT accuse me of bias. I really couldn't be more indifferent on Snake's inclusion. On one hand he was a unique and interesting character, I like the Metal Gear series, I'd hate for his mains to be disappointed, and I'd miss the opportunity for stuff like new codecs and music. On the other hand, he isn't really a Nintendo character, he hogs a precious third-party spot, and I'm all for having fresh experiences instead of having a Brawl Roster+.

...all in all, I would be happy either way. I'd be mildly surprised if he were cut, but I wouldn't be outright shocked.


Kunio-Kun gets double zeroes because the five minutes of research I did was highly discouraging.

​

 

[Pacack]

Snake:

Chance: 44%
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him return, but I'm not expecting him to anymore.

Want: 65%
Fairly indifferent to the character, but I don't like cuts, so...

Kunio-Kun: ABSTAIN

Predictions:

Happy Mask Salesman: 2.2%
Top 10 AT: 11%

Noms: Sheriff x5

 

[Groose]

Real chance: 10%

I was actually preparing to rage on you for a bit before I saw this. Really, I would have been fine with a .01% because it's all a matter of how you interpret the evidence, but a flat-out zero percent? The score that means that there is absolutely no conceivable way of it happening short of a gun being held to the heads of both Sakurai and Iwata? Heck, I even considered giving Kunio-Kun a .01% today because very, very few characters deserve a 0%.

Ghirahim x5

DAY OVER

...Snake? Snake! SNAAAAAAAAAAKE!​

 

[Pacack]

Glad I managed to get in before the day ended.

 

[Groose]

Kunio-Kun (River City Ransom)
0.38% chance
10.53% want
Sorry. I always try to come up with something to say here, but I just can't think of anything. Please understand!

Solid Snake (Metal Gear)
62.66% chance (was 66.12%)
63.92% want (was 69.00%)
Solid Snake's esteem has fallen a bit lately, but he still remains a character seen as likely and wanted. Even so, he is now at the bottom of the veteran charts. He's encountered some problems, eh? Eh?

Today we're meeting with two terrible fates. The first is meeting the Happy Mask Salesman. Will he get his mask back in Smash? Or will something terrible happen? Please rate the Happy Mask Salesman in chance and want. Also, we're discussing something very terrible: will one of our top ten in chance (you can see them on the image in the OP; they include Palutena, Ridley, K. Rool, Shulk, Dixie, Mii, Pac-Man, Takamaru, Chrom, and Waddle Dee) will become an Assist Trophy instead of a playable character. Please rate the chance and want of this.

Tomorrow we'll be having Isabelle and the chance of a character we rated below 10% chance becoming playable. Predict away!

In addition, I have a very special announcement! The Rate Their Chances thread is about to get locked.

...

...

...

Oh, yeah. I guess I should go on, eh? Well, I've noticed over the last couple weeks that the game is really becoming kind of disconnected; we have our music section in the middle of nowhere, our want chart in the middle of nowhere, and our directory in the middle of nowhere. We can't keep going on like this; we need to rebuild the front page. Why not start fresh and get things the way we want them?

I've talked with some of the other managers, and we've come up with some conclusions. The proposed new thread layout looks like this:

1) Announcements, Characters of the Day, Rules, How to Play (Run by Groose)
2) Predictions Winners Post (Run by Smasher 101)
3) Nominations (Run by Groose)
4-5) Directory (Run by Brawler 610)
6) Chance Chart (Run by Lonekonwolf)
7) Want Chart (Run by Colder Than Ice)
8-10) Music Section (Run by Toxicroaker)
11-13) Smash 4 Speculation History (Run by Groose) (New section I'll be starting in a month or two)
14) Statistical Analysis (Run by Erimir)
15) YOU SUGGEST

Yes, I am asking you all if you have any ideas for new sections of the thread. Do you have anything you wish to run/contribute? Anything that can really help the thread or provide an interesting diversion? If so, please feel free to suggest them, and you may be added to the mix!

...that's about it, I think. Try to come up with something in a few days; I'd like to have the new OP set up next week.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Happy Mask Salesman: 0%
Want: 0%

Top Ten RTC Characters Becoming an Assist Trophy: 91% They all have a large chance to be an at... Except Pac-Man.
Want: 75% I want Shulk to die in he- Oh, I mean, I want him to DIE IN HELL!... Um... I don't think I was supposed to say that... Let's just pretend that didn't ever happen.

Isabelle: 0.56%
Under 10% Chance Character Becoming Playable: 16.59%

x5 Dixie Kong

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Spears In Smash Bros. and @Smash Daddy are the nomination winners for Alex. @ KingofPhantoms wins for Snake.

 

[Gunla]

HMS- That sounds like a diesease.

Pros
+Majora's Mask is still relevant
+Annnd that's it!
Cons
-EVERYONE ELSE!
-No fighting ability even precedented or established that this character has any combat skill.
OVERALL RATING: 00.1%

Want: 00.00%- Kidd Zeal Tetra.

Top Ten RTC- Like I said earlier, such a long, long acronym!

Chances: 85%- Oh, yes. And we know who.
Want: 00.00%- Not even to Pac-Man (given it's the "Ghostly Adventures design") would I want this punishment to be bestowed to any character.

Predictions:
The Puppetmaster Dog- .4%
The Minority! The 10%!- 10%
Nominations:
Little Debbie Ghirahim X5- I have nothing else to do with my nominations anymore.

 

[Shalashaska]

Happy Mask Salesman-
Chance: 0.87% Could get in as a joke character or something, but overall I don't think he's important or recurring enough to warrant a playable appearance.
Want: 6% Don't care for him too much, especially since there are more deserving newcomers in general, let alone Zelda ones...however, he could have a fun, unique moveset, perhaps even utilizing the mask transformations that some people wanted for Young Link to return with.

Top Ten as Assist Trophies-
Chance: 10% Not completely unrealistic, but I feel like adding any of these characters as ATs would be worse than getting a simple trophy or something, as they don't deserve that kind of "so close yet so far" status.
Want: 1% I hate this idea, but I will give it more than a zero, because I think Miis might be an alright assist trophy, or possibly stage hazard.

Isabelle: 0.02%
Less than 10% chance characters being playable: 15%

Samurai Goroh x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Kunio-Kun (River City Ransom)
0.38% chance
10.53% want
Sorry. I always try to come up with something to say here, but I just can't think of anything.

How about "BARF!!!"
Really, it's like next to nobody here has played River City Ransom.

Happy Mask Salesman: 0%
Hey, Skull Kid's an AT.

Want: 1.5%
Using masks to fight might be interesting, but I don't think he does that in the game.

Character In Top Ten Becomes an AT: 86%
Well, they probably aren't ALL getting in.

Want: 95%
I think a couple of them would work much better as ATs than as playable characters.

Isabelle prediction: 0.36%
Character Rated at >10% Chance is Playable prediction: 24.80%

Nominate:
Dr. Eggman x10

 

[Deleted member]

Whew! We finally got this out of the way! I can't wait for the new thread because this will make the Directory more convenient for me.
Now...
Happy Mask Salesman and RTC Top 10 AT have been added to the Directory.

Happy Mask Salesman
Chance: 0%
He met with a terrible fate before he was rated. Out of all the Zelda characters, why choose him? Better yet, why choose him over Skull Kid, who would represent Majora's Mask better than he could. Now that Skull Kid is out of the picture, I can't see Majora's Mask get represented with a character (unless you are the ridiculous person who honestly wants 3 Links).
Want: 0%
Waste of a slot. Also, Tetra and Ghirahim.

RTC Top 10 AT (YoshiandToad or whoever made this concept, you are truly an evil one)
Chance: .13% 80%
Let's rate every one of these characters individually.

Spoiler

Palutena: 20%
I can see her be one. However, Magnus is by far a more likely candidate to become an Assist Trophy in that he would replace Little Mac as the powerful attacker who is prone to run off the edge.
Ridley: 0%
Ridley has a 40% chance of being playable, 30% chance of being a stage hazard, and 30% chance of being a boss. I know that Assist Trophy of him in Brawl was scrapped, but I can't see Ridley be an Assist Trophy when Mother Brain is one.
King K. Rool: 0%
It would be bizarre to see King K. Rool be an Assist Trophy, and it would be awkward to fulfill roles such as a boss or a stage hazard. With him, it's playable or nothing.
Shulk: 12%
Shulk has a 78% chance of being playable, 12% chance of being an Assist Trophy, and a 10% chance of not appearing in the game at all or he is in some other form. With the evidence that I showed on his day, I say that Shulk being an Assist Trophy is definitely unlikely.
Dixie Kong: 0%
Playable or nothing.
Mii: 0%
Playable or... fulfill some other random role in this game!
Pac-Man: 0%
He is the mascot of Namco and the most likely candidate to represent them in this game. Seeing him as an Assist Trophy wouldn't make sense.
Takamaru: 25%
70% chance of being playable (I would bump his chance by 5% thanks to Captain Rainbow), 25% chance of being an Assist Trophy, 5% chance of not making an appearance or having some misc. content. Takamaru is the most likely retro, but Sakurai could add him as an Assist Trophy. I don't think that this will happen.
Chrom: 25%
Chrom has a 70% chance of being playable, 25% chance of being an AT, and 5% chance of somehow not making it in at all or appearing in some other form. I fully expect Chrom to make it into Smash and seeing him as an Assist Trophy would be weird, especially considering the success Awakening had.
Bandana Dee: 50%
Bandana Dee has a 30% chance of being playable, 50% chance of being an AT, 15% chance of being a part of King Dedede's Waddle Dee Toss and/or King Dedede's Final Smash, and 5% chance of being in the game in some form. I am a Bandana Dee supporter, but I agree that my scores for him before were ridiculous. Regardless, he is definitely going to make an appearance in Smash somehow. He could potentially be an Assist Trophy and I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

EDIT: New chance score thanks to Erimir.
I can see one happening in this game. The most likely one is Bandana Dee. I agree that he is massively overrated on this thread. I apologize for my massive outliers before...

Want: .23% 23%
Let's rate every one of these characters individually.

Spoiler

Palutena: 50%
I have no strong feelings one way or the other!
Ridley: 0%
I'm indifferent on Ridley, but even then this would be a slap in the face to his fans.
King K. Rool: 0%
One of my most wanted newcomers; he oozes with potential. If he becomes an Assist Trophy, then that would be a mockery to what he is.
Shulk: 0%
HELL NO! He is currently my most wanted newcomer behind Bomberman right now! I will be disappointed if he got in as an Assist Trophy! I would be slightly happy that Xenoblade got content, but Shulk deserves to be playable.
Dixie Kong: 0%
I would love to see her or King K. Rool be playable; they both deserve it. I would hate for her to make it in as an Assist Trophy.
Mii: 100%
Anything to not make them playable.
Pac-Man: 0%
I don't really want Pac-Man, but it would be absolutely stupid if Pac-Man wasn't playable and made it in as an Assist Trophy.
Takamaru: 0%
I want to see him be playable.
Chrom: 80%
Anything to not make him playable, but it would be odd how Awakening wouldn't be represented with a character.
Bandana Dee: 0%
He's behind Shulk. I can see him as an Assist Trophy, but I would hate for him to be one.

Honestly, I find that being an Assist Trophy is worse than not getting in the game or just being a trophy. Their appearance as one is kinda taunting...
EDIT: New want score thanks to Spears in Smash Bros.
I would hate to see someone be an Assist Trophy. However, if it means to not make the Miis playable, then so be it.

Isabelle Prediction: 1.83%
Shot in the dark.
<10% chance character of being playable Prediction: 10%
How does one rate this?

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[Depressed Gengar]

HMS Chances: 0%. Skull Kid bit the dust. Why wouldn't he?
Want: 60%. Hey now, I like him.
Long Anagram Chances: 90%. Let's face it: One of them will meet this fate.
Want: 20%. Why do this when you could not reference them in the game, period? FAR worse fate.
Isabelle: 10.3%.
Below 10: 58.4%.
LORD DOME X3
Heracross X2

 

[Smasher 101]

Happy Mask Salesman's chances and want: 0% - I now find a Zelda character more likely than I used to...but out of all of them, why him?

RTCT10AT's: 95% - I honestly think Bandana Dee's much more likely to be this than a playable character. If Shulk's not playable there's a decent chance of him being one too. Everyone else I doubt and I would give a flat out zero to Ridley and Pac-Man (the former is far more likely to be a boss or stage hazard if not playable, the latter really wouldn't make any sense at all), but the little chance scores all add up. We're not getting all ten as playable, that's for sure.
Want: 50% - Seeing a character I support becoming an assist trophy is a bit disappointing, but it's still better than them getting only a trophy or having no appearance at all, in my opinion. Additionally, nearly half of the characters in the top ten are characters I don't like or care about, so I wouldn't be disappointed at all if they ended up as assist trophies.

Isabelle prediction: 0.89% - Second AC character is unlikely, and Tom Nook is also the much more likely pick.
Below 10 prediction: 12.02% - The characters are ranked low for a reason.

Zoroark x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

The total comes out to 132%. Divide by 1000% and we get a .13% chance.

In total, we have 230%. Divide that by 1000% and we get .23% want.

132%, or 1.32, divided by 1000%, or 10, is 13.2%, not 0.132%.
Similarly, 230% divided by 1000% is 23%, not 0.23%.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Alright, now to get to the Happy Mask Salesman's rating, I'll start by...

"You've met with a.... terribly wonderful fate, haven't you?"

What the?! What are you doing here!?

"I've come to see your rating, since you were the one who started nominating me again. Surely you will correctly assume I am the most likely candidate for a Zelda series newcomer!"


Well.....not really.

Sure, you could use masks in your moveset, that'd make you unique. But that's not enough. See, there are many, many more potential Zelda newcomers with a lot more in their favor.

First off: Your only prominent appearance was in Majora's Mask.

"And why does this matter?"


If a character doesn't appear very often or isn't very important to the franchise as a whole, then they're unlikely. The only
exceptions are retro characters. All other possible Zelda newcomers have made more major appearances than you. Plus, Toon Zelda in particular was planned for Brawl.

Your most recent appearance was in a 3D remake of Ocarina of Time, where your role was rather minor and part of an optional side-quest, just like in the original.

"No....this can't be. What about my popularity?! I'm one of the most well known and popular Zelda characters!"


Well, in the Zelda series, you are very popular, but when it comes to Smash...you don't have much support as a playable character.

"Are you forgetting that another major character in Majora's Mask, the Skull Kid, also a rather popular candidate for a Zelda newcomer was confirmed to be an Assist Trophy?"


Of course I'm not forgetting that. That's one thing in your favor.

But almost everyone else either wants characters like Toon Zelda, Tetra, Tingle, Vaati, Impa and evne Ghirahim, and some don't want any new Zelda characters. You may have some dedicated supporters around here, but you don't have many. All of the previously mentioned characters have more support than you.

Happy Mask Salesman Chance - 1%

You have way too much competition, you are not very recurring in the franchise, and you yourself are also never seen trying to fight in any of the games you do appear in. You're eligible, but by no means likely at all.

"This can't be happening to me!"

Now onto want....

"Surely! Please! You must want to see me in anyway! Even if you'd rather have others in before me, it doesn't matter anymore! You have to give me a high want score or something terrible will happen to me!"

"I'm begging you! I'm begging you! You must do it!"

Oh calm down. Honestly, after reading your support thread, I think you'd be an awesome character.

Now, I' want Toon Zelda/Tetra in more, but I would be glad if you made it in as well. You could utilize masks in your moveset. Even the Transformation masks that Link had. You may not have used them yourself, but some of Ness' attacks in Smash aren't ones that he originally used in his games, so there is that in your favor, but it's more of an idea than something that considerably boosts your chances. Not to mention having you instead of having Young Link with masks would negate having three Links.

"Really? You really want me in the next Super Smash Brothers game? You think I would make a good addition?"

"I was certain you would tell me that."

Sure you were.

Want - 85%

Top Ten character becomes an Assist Trophy - 75%
I have a feeling one of them could meet this fate.

But only Bandana Dee, Takamaru and Shulk are characters that I can see becoming Assists, Palutena and Chrom too, to a much lesser extant. None of the others make any sense as an Assist Trophy whatsoever.

Want - 0%
None of them really deserve to be Assists IMO, as much as I dislike the ideas of Miis in Smash.

Isabelle Prediction - 1.05%

Tom Nook is more likely but I expect a bit of generosity.
10 Chance character becomes playable prediction - 12.15%

They're ranked around 10 or lower in chance...so they should be around 10 again.
Spyro x10

 

[andimidna]

two terrible fates... hah.

Happy Mask Salesman:
+ Recurring (OoT and MM)
+ Unique (all of the masks)
+ Popular among series fans (less so for Smash fans_

- Skull Kid is more prominent as is an AT
- less recognized
- MM currently not relevant. Hopefully this will be fixed soon though.

Chance: 9%

Want: 75%
I prefer Midna, Zant, Ghirahim, Yuga, Ravio, Hilda, Fi, Impa, Vaati, and Ganon.

(you can see them on the image in the OP; they include Palutena, Ridley, K. Rool, Shulk, Dixie, Mii, Pac-Man, Takamaru, Chrom, and Waddle Dee)

I'm going to rate all of these characters to give my full personal rating.

Palutena: 95%
Yes, I'm this confident.
Will she be an assist if not playable?
Doubtful.
If she's not playable-
Pit's FS: 4%
Assist: 1%
It's illogical to think the FS was removed to make an assist.

Ridley: 69%
He has a lot of detractors.
And would be difficult to make happen, but in the end, he's likely.
Will he be an Assist if not playable?
NO.
It's worth noting he was originally an assist in Brawl but was removed for 2 bosses.
If he's not playable-
Pyrosphere Stage Hazard: 25%
Boss again: 15%
AT: 1%
Sadly, it's possible Sakurai's trolling us about the stage by not trolling us. Trollception.
Ridley will most likely make the cut. But there are 2 other things he could be that are also more likely than AT.

K Rool: 10%
Dixie: 90%
Yes, this is how I feel about these characters.
Back when K Rool WASN'T being shunned from the series, Dixie Kong was planned for Brawl.
Dixie has now returned to the series being (over-)marketed alongside a 4th kong, Cranky.
Dixie is the shoo-in 3rd DK rep in my eyes. And Cranky seems like he's the guy for a 4th rep. Nintendo loves these 2. Just look at VGX and recent Nintendo Directs.
However, on K Rool's side, the development team is currently denying rock formations resembling the King and they are defending their choice of making new villains.
He looks to be a fans dream. Dixie and Cranky have fanbases now growing to almost the size of his. And are adding unique moveset potential each game they get in, because, y'know, they actually get in games.
All 3 could have a full unique set of moves, however, none of the 3 have a gimmick, making them equally less unique than all newcomers so far except WFT, who they all beat.
Will they be an assist if not playable?
K Rool- no.
Dixie- yes.
K Rool would most likely either be recognized fully or basically not at all. Like a 3rd party character.
Stage Hazard on Gangplank Galleon: 1%
Trophy- 70%
Nothing- 17%
AT- 3%
Dixie is different, if she's not playable, she'll definitely be an assist. Same with Cranky.
AT- 10%

Shulk: 77%
Very likely.
Will he be an assist if he's not playable?
Yes.
AT- 23%
Shulk as an AT is the very least they could give Xenoblade.

Miis- 50%
A half/half character
Will they make an assist if not playable?
No. No way.
How the hell would that work?
Nothing: 25%
Icon for Online mode: 15%
Background detail: 8%
Trophy: 1%
AT: 1%

Pac-Man: 80%
I don't want him all that much, but I definitely think he's happening.
Will he be an assist if he's not playable?
No.
That's not how 3rd parties work in Smash.
AT: 0%
Nothing: 20%

Takamaru: 73%
The most likely non-historical retro, but he has major competition in Lip. I consider them equals, but Takamaru is the more recognized and popular of the 2. But is less important and unique.
Will he be an assist if he's not playable?
Yep.
Trophy: 1%
AT: 26%

Chrom: 79%
The most recent lord and most requested character from a series almost definitely getting a newcomer. Pretty much a given.
He has competition, which drags him down.
Will he be an assist if he's not playable?
Ehh... can't see that happening.
You'd think a deserving character that misses the cut would generally go down to the next biggest thing, but that;s not always the case.
Lyn was an assist. So it's possible,
Trophy: 8%
AT: 13%

Waddle Dee: 5%
Oh my, such bias, you guys have ranked him as #10 most likely.
The weird praise for him here is so random, and it disgusts me.
His chance is the same chance as getting a new Kirby character. Almost nothing.
The rest of the main cast has been added in Brawl. I'm almost certain modest Sakurai will take a break from Kirby this time around.
He has no popularity except for a few people obsessed with him n SmashBoards, which means nothing to Sakurai.
His weapon could not be unique from a sword, and his up B would move like a generic recovery, but would just look different.
When he's not playable, will he be an assist?
No.
King DDD moveset: 93%
Trophy: 1%
AT: 1%

It's only as likely as the most likely one, so 26% because of Takamaru.
Most likely none of them will be assist, regardless if some get a slot.

Want: depends on who...
Eh, I'll just say 0%

isabelle: 2%
10 thing: 17%

x2 Gardevoir
x2 Captain Syrup
x1 Florina (Fire Emblem)
Florina is a Pegasus Knight with a Slim Lance, able to use other lances such as Iron Lances.
She rides a Pegasus. And has purple hair. She's impossible, but I want her.

 

[McDuckletts]

*insert BEN joke here*
HMS
Chance: 0.01%
One of the most random suggestions for a Zelda character ever, and probably one that will never happen any day soon...
Want: 50%
...But I wouldn't be that upset if he did get in. In fact, you could almost say that I welcome him with open arms...kinda. While I can't see him use the transformation masks in his moveset, he can definitely still use every other mask to a good extent, which would be pretty cool. However, seeing him do hand-to-hand combat would be pretty...eaugh.

Sakurai pulling a cruel joke to the fanbase
Chance: 10%
It could happen. I can't say much about it though. Seems like something that's very hard to predict...
Want: 30%
If this is what it takes to not have Chrom, Takamaru or Miis playable, then so be it.

Predictions
Isabelle: 1.36%
Sakurai pulling an even crueler joke: 0.43%

Heracross X5

 

[andimidna]

*insert BEN joke here*
HMS
Chance: 0.01%
One of the most random suggestions for a Zelda character ever, and probably one that will never happen any day soon...
Want: 50%
...But I wouldn't be that upset if he did get in. In fact, you could almost say that I welcome him with open arms...kinda. While I can't see him use the transformation masks in his moveset, he can definitely still use every other mask to a good extent, which would be pretty cool. However, seeing him do hand-to-hand combat would be pretty...eaugh.

Sakurai pulling a cruel joke to the fanbase
Chance: 10%
It could happen. I can't say much about it though. Seems like something that's very hard to predict...
Want: 30%
If this is what it takes to not have Chrom, Takamaru or Miis playable, then so be it.

Predictions
Isabelle: 1.36%
Sakurai pulling an even crueler joke: 0.43%

Heracross X5

How is that an even crueler joke?
Go look at the list of characters... they are not cruel jokes... neither is WFT or heracross

 

[FalKoopa]

Happy Mask Salesman:
Likelihood: 0%
Honestly, he had a notable role is only one Zelda game 14 years ago. I'd say even Midna and Groose would make it in before him.

Want: 0%
My reaction if he gets in.

Top 10 RTC character working hard:
Likelihood: 45%
I can only see Shulk, Waddle Dee and to a lesser extent, Palutena receiving the AT treatment.

Want: 30%
There are two characters in the Top 10 who I wouldn't mind being an AT: Shulk and Waddle Dee. I don't see Miis being ATs, but I'd like anything that disconfirms them.

Below 10% character being playable (or WFT 2.0): 2%
Isabelle: 3%

Lip x 5

 

[Erimir]

RTC Top 10 AT (YoshiandToad or whoever made this concept, you are truly an evil one)
Chance: .13%
Let's rate every one of these characters individually.

Spoiler

Palutena: 20%
I can see her be one. However, Magnus is by far a more likely candidate to become an Assist Trophy in that he would replace Little Mac as the powerful attacker who is prone to run off the edge.
Ridley: 0%
Ridley has a 40% chance of being playable, 30% chance of being a stage hazard, and 30% chance of being a boss. I know that Assist Trophy of him in Brawl was scrapped, but I can't see Ridley be an Assist Trophy when Mother Brain is one.
King K. Rool: 0%
It would be bizarre to see King K. Rool be an Assist Trophy, and it would be awkward to fulfill roles such as a boss or a stage hazard. With him, it's playable or nothing.
Shulk: 12%
Shulk has a 78% chance of being playable, 12% chance of being an Assist Trophy, and a 10% chance of not appearing in the game at all or he is in some other form. With the evidence that I showed on his day, I say that Shulk being an Assist Trophy is definitely unlikely.
Dixie Kong: 0%
Playable or nothing.
Mii: 0%
Playable or... fulfill some other random role in this game!
Pac-Man: 0%
He is the mascot of Namco and the most likely candidate to represent them in this game. Seeing him as an Assist Trophy wouldn't make sense.
Takamaru: 25%
70% chance of being playable (I would bump his chance by 5% thanks to Captain Rainbow), 25% chance of being an Assist Trophy, 5% chance of not making an appearance or having some misc. content. Takamaru is the most likely retro, but Sakurai could add him as an Assist Trophy. I don't think that this will happen.
Chrom: 25%
Chrom has a 70% chance of being playable, 25% chance of being an AT, and 5% chance of somehow not making it in at all or appearing in some other form. I fully expect Chrom to make it into Smash and seeing him as an Assist Trophy would be weird, especially considering the success Awakening had.
Bandana Dee: 50%
Bandana Dee has a 30% chance of being playable, 50% chance of being an AT, 15% chance of being a part of King Dedede's Waddle Dee Toss and/or King Dedede's Final Smash, and 5% chance of being in the game in some form. I am a Bandana Dee supporter, but I agree that my scores for him before were ridiculous. Regardless, he is definitely going to make an appearance in Smash somehow. He could potentially be an Assist Trophy and I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

The total comes out to 132%. Divide by 1000% and we get a .13% chance.

That's not how the math works... You should be dividing by 10 if you want to get the average chance (note that 10 = 1000%), but you divided by 1,000.

More importantly, averaging them does not not give the chance that at least one becomes an AT. If you think there's a 50% chance that Bandana Dee will be an AT, how can the chance of at least one AT from the top ten be less than 1%?

The correct number given the scores you gave individually, by the way, is about 80%. If we assume independence.

 

[Glaciacott]

HMS
Chance and want - 0%
nothing else to say

That long thing
Chance - 60%
I seriously doubt all will be playable, and I could see many of them being considered as an AT due to the team's likely knowledge of their popularity.

Want - 90%
This is entirely the fact that assist trophy is imo the best possible way to include the mii.
You're playing a match, grab an AT and out comes a random mii from your system, friend list or Streetpass and performs some magic or attack based on their shirt color. The people that want their miis in the game get the pleasure of randomly helping in the battle ("Well I was winning until Michael Jackson camein!" cue laughter and happy local multiplayer memories.) Thus you only get the ones in your system, and if you don't use items you never have to bother with them. Everyone wins.

Predictions
Isa - 3.78%
Other long thing - 25% ... some characters in there actually do have a chance imo.

Noms
x5 Balloon Fight stage

 

[PK_Wonder]

HMS - 0.12%
RTC Top 10 = AT - 95%

predict Isabelle - 1%
the other thing - 60%, because between Ghirahim (who I hope gets much higher in his rerate) and a few others, I expect a "curveball."

nominate:
Ghirahim Rerate x3
Flynn x2

 

[PK_Wonder]

Question time. Are there still characters left worth rating who can actually get a decent score? The answer is yes, but most people aren't nominating them. and by decent score, I don't expect any of the characters I'm about to list to get in. buuuuut most are definitely in the possible Assist Trophy range and light years better than questionable nominees like Omastar, Yarne/Owain/Random Fire Emblem character X, Count Bleck, Chancellor Cole, Chef Kawasaki, and Athena Freaking Cykes. I'm not saying we shouldn't have fun nominating guys like those whatsoever. Most of those "stupid" days were a lot of fun. but there are mildly better characters to rate than any of these for those who think there aren't.

Here are some examples of characters who can do better than 1 or 2%:
Prince Fluff (Kirby)
Midna & Wolf Link (as opposed to solo Midna)
Birdo (Mario Bros.)
Mallo (Pushmo/Pullblox if you live in Europe... this one is coming soon)
King Hippo (Punch-Out!!)
Kalas (Baten Kaitos)
Alex (Golden Sun)
Felix (Golden Sun) (both solid AT material if Isaac were playable)
Petey Piranha (Mario Bros.)
Black Knight (aka Zelgius) (Fire Emblem)
Caeda (aka Sheeda) (Fire Emblem)
Tempo (HarmoKnight)
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land)
Urban Champion (Urban Champion)
Non-Specific Action Figure

Third parties who don't have a chance but are very noteworthy and/or Nintendo relevant:
Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
Jill Valentine (Resident Evil)
Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil)
Dr. Eggman/Robotnik (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Crono (Chrono Trigger)
Tiz Arrior (Bravely Default)
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) (we rated him as a team, let's do it solo)
Viewtiful Joe (Viewtiful Joe)
Maxwell (Scribblenauts)
Conker (Conker) (we did Banjo-Kazooie... let's do it for the want score)


AND for rerates, here are those, overrated and underrated in my opinion who can use a boost or reduction:
OVERRATED:
Bandanna Freaking Waddle Dee is the #1 most notorious offender.
Impa
Zoroark
Mach Rider probably a few percent
Porky and Masked Man
Daitoryo
Karate Joe
Genesect, Sylveon, and maybe Blaziken (he would definitely be reasonable with a new PT)
Doctor Kawashima


UNDERRATED:
Ghirahim and Captain Rainbow (both getting second chances soon)
Chrom, and a Chrom and Lucina Team
Wonder Red and Bayonetta (maybe a couple percent each, moreso Wonder Red)


I also think Andy is worth rerating with Advance Wars coming on the GBA VC. I don't know enough to tell you if I find it overrated, underrated, or spot-on, but I can't wait to try out the biggest Nintendo series I've never played.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

HMS: dual zeros
Top Ten AT: 65%
Want: 30%
All of this is for Pac-Man, Chrom, and Mii.
Isabelle: 0.45%
Under 10%: 14.56%
Robin x 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Kunio-Kun has been added to the popularity chart and ranked 146th. Snake fell behind only the now confirmed Toon Link, going from 15th to 16th on the veterans list.

Happy Mask Salesman
Chance: 0% - There are at least 25-50 Zelda characters that beat him in both popularity and importance.
Want: 39% - He's a cool character but I wouldn't be that "Happy" with his inclusion.

Top 10 rate their chance character getting in as an assist trophy.
Chance: I'll rank them from (in my opinion) least likely to most likely.

Spoiler

10th Pac-Man: I think we can all agree on this one. Why on earth would Nintendo go through the trouble of getting the rights to a third party character just to use him as an AT?
It only made sense for Shadow and Gray Fox because they were supporting characters to franchises that already had reps.

9th Mii - I just don't see it happening. It feels like such an anticlimactic way to use Nintendo's signature avatars.

8th Palutena - I see her as being the most likely of the top 10 to be playable. Even in the unlikely event that she's not, then she'll return as Pit's final smash.

7th Ridley - A stage hazard or a boss if not playable.

6th Chrom - He could definitely be an AT if not playable but I think there's a chance that Sakurai will want to go for a more gimmicky FE character to fill the AT role, such as Tiki or Anna.

5th King K. Rool: I don't think we're likely to have both him and Dixie playable together. Whichever of the two doesn't make it will have a decent chance of meating this cruel fate. Also the DK franchise doesn't yet have any ATs.

4th Dixie: See King K. Rool above.

3rd Takamaru: If he doesn't make it, then he'll be the perfect AT. Retro characters tend to be ATs more often.

2nd Shulk: Because similar characters like Isaac and Saki have already met this fate.

1st Waddle Dee: The least likely to be playable. His design is perfect for an AT.

Overall Chance: 70%
Want: 50% - I'm split on this.

Isabelle prediction: 0.1%
<10 chance character becoming playable prediction: 17%

Nominations: Commander Shepard x5