Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Hold on. Chrom and Lucina are not more popular than Lyn.

Chrom and Lucina... are a lot more popular than Lyn. Let me put it this way--Awakening broadened the demographic so much that the duo are just far more familiar to the majority of gamers out there. You can't look anywhere without people wanting one of the two--Youtube wishlists, Miiverse, casual video game newsites, GameFAQs, Shortie's polls... this is the center for Chrom hatred and he still manages to put up want scores just a few percent behind Lyn's here.

On the other hand, Lyn's popularity has absolutely plummeted since the pre-Brawl days. You never really see her name brought up outside of the really serious Smash discussion. She has some decent support here, but that's because this site has a higher concentration of pre-Brawl veterans than elsewhere. On other Smash sites such as GameFAQs, she's pretty much dismissed as a character of the past.

 

[Gunla]

Hold the heck up.

Spoiler

Did I see a 55% chance for PLASM WRAITH? Fifty FIVE? And no absolute regard to anything regarding any other series, roster limits, boss potential?

...

Okay, angry Naoto rant over.

Chrom and Lucina... are a lot more popular than Lyn. Let me put it this way--Awakening broadened the demographic so much that the duo are just far more familiar to the majority of gamers out there. You can't look anywhere without people wanting one of the two--Youtube wishlists, Miiverse, casual video game newsites, GameFAQs, Shortie's polls... this is the center for Chrom hatred and he still manages to put up want scores just a few percent behind Lyn's here.

On the other hand, Lyn's popularity has absolutely plummeted since the pre-Brawl days. You never really see her name brought up outside of the really serious Smash discussion. She has some decent support here, but that's because this site has a higher concentration of pre-Brawl veterans than elsewhere. On other Smash sites such as GameFAQs, she's pretty much dismissed as a character of the past.

Sadly, this is correct. Lyn is my second favorite lord, but in the magical land of FE, recency is a huge deal. And sales. And saving a franchise, over the first game to make it overseas. Lucina and Chrom are still fond, new memories in many eyes, and seeing them to many would "make sense" including myself (I'm predicting Chrom or Lucina, no tag-team Ice-Climbers duo.) I think Sakurai would head for that, a game that got lots of profit and sales numbers that Nintendo liked. They aren't going to simply just give what saved FE as a whole a little 3DS stage.

 

[Starcutter]

Hold the heck up.

Did I see a 55% chance for PLASM WRAITH? Fifty FIVE? And no absolute regard to anything regarding any other series, roster limits, boss potential?

...

yes. alright, maybe it was a bit high, but there's a VERY REAL possibility everyone seems to miss with the guy.

honestly it's at a 55% because I got heated up in the phoenix wright post. I'll adjust it accordingly, even if it's still 45%



also might I add, what's wrong with a second pikmin character? it's clearly possible.


I also believe there won't be any sort of boss fight other than master hand. so there's that too.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Chrom and Lucina... are a lot more popular than Lyn. Let me put it this way--Awakening broadened the demographic so much that the duo are just far more familiar to the majority of gamers out there. You can't look anywhere without people wanting one of the two--Youtube wishlists, Miiverse, casual video game newsites, GameFAQs, Shortie's polls... this is the center for Chrom hatred and he still manages to put up want scores just a few percent behind Lyn's here.

On the other hand, Lyn's popularity has absolutely plummeted since the pre-Brawl days. You never really see her name brought up outside of the really serious Smash discussion. She has some decent support here, but that's because this site has a higher concentration of pre-Brawl veterans than elsewhere. On other Smash sites such as GameFAQs, she's pretty much dismissed as a character of the past.

Smash Requests =/= General Popularity

And if you're saying that recency makes you more popular then explain Roy's popularity. Did you perhaps look at any FIRE EMBLEM fansites?

Why are Playable character requests now the sole definition of popularity? It contributes to it, but fans of a game who simply want to play as characters are not the only people who's opinions matter.

 

[Starcutter]

And if you're saying that recency makes you more popular then explain Roy's popularity.

Roy's a smash veteran.


also fire

 

[Groose]

I don't know enough about its role in Pikmin 3 to comment, so I'll let everyone else decide. And no one spoil me, k? Put your Pikmin 3 spoilers in collapse tags, please.

(I'm feeling artsy today with the colors. Expect this to become a thing.)

Ja, I'll do that for you. Still, it may be a good idea for you to just duck and hide today.

Also, I felt artsy back on Captain Rainbow's day. But then... I burned out all of my artistic ability.

I have no objections to rating THAT Goku. I think that we need to bring back HIM to run DBZ Goku's day.

Last I heard from him he said he had no interest in Rate Their Chances anymore. However, I may be able to get him out here for Goku...

Well, now let's proceed to the rating people. Since Groose is getting all high and fancy with his Phoenix Wright cases, I'll 1-up him today.

Owain: You're not even a main character in your own game! We are much more important than you!

Heh. Each one of those ratings you do is better than the last one. I'll anxiously be awaiting your next one.

(for the record I did this because I started playing ace attorney again, not cause OrcarinaOfDoom or Groose. didn't even know Ocarina's was related to phoenix wright until after this post)
​

I like your style. Using quotes from other posters as evidence? I may have to steal that at some point...

Smash Requests =/= General Popularity

And if you're saying that recency makes you more popular then explain Roy's popularity. Did you perhaps look at any FIRE EMBLEM fansites?

Why are Playable character requests now the sole definition of popularity? It contributes to it, but fans of a game who simply want to play as characters are not the only people who's opinions matter.

Oh, boy! A challenge! I love a good debate, and this one looks like it'll be fun! Normally I would script this out and toss in a few Ace Attorney gifs, but I feel that'd be a tad pretentious in this situation; we've seldom crossed paths before and you seem like a no-nonsense type of bloke.

The point I seek to prove is that Chrom and Lucina are more popular on a wider scale than is Lyn. I completely agree with you--Smash requests are certainly not equivalent to popularity as a whole. Wanting a character in Smash is different than liking a character, as I myself admitted just yesterday during our Dixie Kong discussion. So we're going to look at this from a non-Smash perspective.

I'll start this off with a concession--your knowledge of Fire Emblem trumps my own. Although we may not have crossed paths often, most of the times I've seen you have been in Fire Emblem discussions; you know your stuff, but I am a complete novice when it comes to the series. As such, I am forced to concede that among the hardcore Fire Emblem fans that you are a part of, Lyn's popularity is greater than that of Chrom. From what little I've seen of hardcore Fire Emblem discussion, Chrom is bashed for being a rather "bland" lord--I've seen at least four or five instances of "longtime" Fire Emblem fans saying something like this. There are other complaints, but this is one I see fairly often.

Yet for every person I've seen say Chrom is "bland," I've seen multiple people step up and defend him. A lot of these people are newer--they know not Lyn nor Roy to draw comparisons. And there lies the crux of this matter--what you know as the "Fire Emblem fanbase" is changing. Awakening has dramatically increased the number of Fire Emblem fans out there. I've seen dozens of people on a variety of sites (from GameFAQs to Miiverse to Nintendolife to YouTube) talk about how Awakening addicted them to the series, and how they really loved Chrom and Lucina (and it's always these two, with the Avatar never really mentioned outside of Smash discussion).

Lyn may have been among the most popular Fire Emblem characters, but that is quickly changing. You have an influx of people who are joining your community who only really know Awakening and the playable Smash characters--Lyn is not somebody they recognize or feel an attachment to. And even if they play through the older FE games and discover what makes Lyn such a great character, it will be Chrom and Lucina who hold a special place in their hearts, as they were the leads in their first game.

To clarify--their popularity doesn't come from "recency;" it comes from the vast number of people who started off with them. Recency wouldn't do anything for them if their game wasn't very successful and didn't introduce a lot of people to the series.

I'd like to keep writing and perhaps elaborate a bit more, but I really must get to ending the day now. Feel free to respond; I will do so as soon as I get a chance. Also, I apologize if I said anything stupid--as I made clear, I am on the outside looking in at the Fire Emblem series. I state what I see, and it may be different than what an insider such as yourself sees.

 

[Starcutter]

I like your style. Using quotes from other posters as evidence? I may have to steal that at some point...

um, I guess so. Mia probably wouldn't mind.

 

[Groose]

Plasm Wraith: 5%
Before today, I still had absolutely no idea who the Plasm Wraith was. I now know... and will keep my rating spoiler free at Pacack's request. Suffice to say that he's moderately important. The only reasons I give him such a high rating are his unique body structure and the lack of competition in his series. He has to deal with Louie and the three captains from Pikmin 3, but none of them really stand out much from Olimar or one another, while the Wraith is incredibly different. I see very little chance of getting a Pikmin newcomer, but I've come to think that this guy may actually be the frontrunner.

Plasm Wraith Want: 33%
One day of research does not a supporter make, but I was fully expecting to give him a zero here earlier. He's got some sort of potential and appeal to him that's hard to put a finger on.

Lyn Chance: 2.5%
So, when I did my Fire Emblem breakdown, I completely forgot to include her. Oops. I overlooked her because I simply don't see her getting in, although I acknowledge there is a slight chance of it. Her main problem is severe competition. There will probably be two or three characters from Fire Emblem, with four being highly doubtful in my eyes. We have Marth, and Ike is very likely to make a return (especially if there are three characters). Really, that only leaves one open spot for a third character and for that Lyn is outclassed by the behemoth of Awakening; heck, she doesn't even compare to Roy, who is (from what I understand) more popular among the older guard of Fire Emblem fans.

Lyn Want: 0%
I'm not a huge Fire Emblem fan and I don't really see her appeal. Please understand; this is rapidly becoming my rating for all Fire Emblem character; I don't hate Lyn in specific.

E. Gadd x5

DAY OVER

...do I sense a "Satisfaction" Day coming up soon?​

 

[Gunla]

Just remember that "Satisfaction" could very well turn into "Salt".

That is if we don't get a newcomer since Smash news is practically confirmed at this point.

 

[Glaciacott]

Was going to be a bland post, but I see some madness going on

First item
Plasm Wraith
Chance - 0%
Even that 25% chance I saw earlier was way too high, and then a 45% after that? For the love of whatever god you believe in, you have to have more sense than that. I may get unnecessarily intense, be warned

First things first: The main focus of the Pikmin games, arguably. is the environments and the pikmin, and for a long time the purpose of the captains was to have a way for the world to be introduced. Olimar is arguably not the protagonist as much as the Pikmin are, and if he's become such a character is because he's the necessary character to drive the story since the pikmin themselves need a leader.
Now, of course, Pikmin has began to expand as a franchise and it has thus given us much more story and character than the original game.
NONE OF THAT DEVELOPMENT INCLUDES, RELATES TO, OR HAS ANYTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH PLASM WRAITH
to compare Plasm Wraith to villains like K. Rool or Ridley is madness, and there's no reason Pikmin would require a "villain" character given that the series is not about villains but about survival in a hostile environment. IT MAKES NO SENSE!
The tone and character of the Pikmin series remains as one of nature and survival. Managing time and tools to accomplish a mission in the most efficient and effective way possible. The way some of you talk about Plasm Wraith makes it sound like it's a Mother Brain/Bowser-like character that's a foil to Olimar/the captains, and that's so far off making sense that instead of just giving the rational score I find myself having to explain myself in paragraphs. FOR PLASM WRAITH? ON A NIGHT BEFORE A NINTENDO DIRECT AND DK:TF???? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS???
Also, the only unique second rep Pikmin could get? Please. Louie makes much more sense as a second rep, has a lot of possible movesets that emphasize other aspects of Pikmin (e.g. the bugs, eating), has been central to the story twice now and is a character more than one person will want to personally beat up. Plasm Wraith is just some liquid stuff only really particularly specific pikmin people will care about while everyone else grabs their heads in dismay.

Want - 0%
Like I said, only Louie would make sense as a second, if any, Pikmin rep. Heck, I'd rather have anyone else from Pikmin. Give me Brittany, she's a cool botanist who constantly mocks her captain ... or THE CAPTAIN WHO HAS HIS OWN THEME. Anything else is literally better. Yes, it's my opinion, yes, it's harsh, but I'm willing to defend it if you want to take me on.

Lyn
Chance - 0.5%
Her time is long gone and Awakening had a much more tangible impact than her game did.

Want - 100%
I wanted her sooooo badly for Brawl. It was between her and Ike and Ike won and now she can't really even seem likely. It's sad really, given how much I love her character, her swords, her animations, her personality ... it also helps I love the swordmaster class and she's the lord that closest represents swordmasters with her super high speed crits with epic animation. Such a shame her boat has sailed.

Predictions
Pokemon Trainer - 73.7%
Don't know what to expect

can't remember if we're predicting anything else. Oh well

Nominations
x5 Super Mario 3D World Stage

And for the record, I'm hoping, and at the same time afraid, that this time tomorrow the DK rep situation will be more solidified. Best of luck to us all.

edit: dang it, I got groose'd

 

[Groose]

Plasm Wraith (Pikmin)
3.80% chance
13.43% want
Thanks to the antics of the man who nominated him and a certain defense lawyer, the Wraith managed to escape from the depths of despair....only to achieve complete mediocrity. Ah well... there's always next time for this Metroid PIKMIN character.

Lyn (Fire Emblem)
8.28% chance (previously 12.74%)
37.86% want (previously 36.26% )
Lyn's chance dipped enough to knock her down by roughly fifteen positions, placing her outside of the Top 50. Even so, her want remained moderately strong and even increased a bit; most importantly, she remained ahead of Chrom in that regard.

Today we're rating Black Mage in chance and want. Can Black Mage surpass rival Slime? Or will Black Mage be relegated to the bottom with Cloud? In addition, we are also rating the Veteran Pokemon Trainer. Last time he slapped together an impressive 81% rating; can he hold strong against the passing of time? Please rate Pokemon Trainer in chance and want. To clarify, it's just the veteran Kanto Trainer today.

Per Smasher 101, yesterday's nominations were won by Big Axle. Smasher will update us about who won today's noms later. Tomorrow we'll hopefully be doing a satisfaction day for a Direct newcomer, but if no newcomer is revealed then we'll be rating Chef Kawasaki and a Super Mario 3D World Stage. So, please predict both of those scores.

Also, a little public service announcement: fourteen inches of snow and ice is heading my way tomorrow. I'll try my darnedest to be here tomorrow, but chances are all I'll be able to manage is a brief message asking for backup.

 

[Groose]

edit: dang it, I got groose'd

I still got it in for you. It's easier for me to do that now that I don't have to calculate predictions.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Plasm Wraith: 5%
Before today, I still had absolutely no idea who the Plasm Wraith was. I now know... and will keep my rating spoiler free at Pacack's request. Suffice to say that he's moderately important. The only reasons I give him such a high rating are his unique body structure and the lack of competition in his series. He has to deal with Louie and the three captains from Pikmin 3, but none of them really stand out much from Olimar or one another, while the Wraith is incredibly different. I see very little chance of getting a Pikmin newcomer, but I've come to think that this guy may actually be the frontrunner.

Plasm Wraith Want: 33%
One day of research does not a supporter make, but I was fully expecting to give him a zero here earlier. He's got some sort of potential and appeal to him that's hard to put a finger on.

Dang, didn't expect someone to say it was the frontrunner.

Was going to be a bland post, but I see some madness going on

First item
Plasm Wraith
Chance - 0%
Even that 25% chance I saw earlier was way too high, and then a 45% after that? For the love of whatever god you believe in, you have to have more sense than that. I may get unnecessarily intense, be warned

First things first: The main focus of the Pikmin games, arguably. is the environments and the pikmin, and for a long time the purpose of the captains was to have a way for the world to be introduced. Olimar is arguably not the protagonist as much as the Pikmin are, and if he's become such a character is because he's the necessary character to drive the story since the pikmin themselves need a leader.
Now, of course, Pikmin has began to expand as a franchise and it has thus given us much more story and character than the original game.
NONE OF THAT DEVELOPMENT INCLUDES, RELATES TO, OR HAS ANYTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH PLASM WRAITH
to compare Plasm Wraith to villains like K. Rool or Ridley is madness, and there's no reason Pikmin would require a "villain" character given that the series is not about villains but about survival in a hostile environment. IT MAKES NO SENSE!
The tone and character of the Pikmin series remains as one of nature and survival. Managing time and tools to accomplish a mission in the most efficient and effective way possible. The way some of you talk about Plasm Wraith makes it sound like it's a Mother Brain/Bowser-like character that's a foil to Olimar/the captains, and that's so far off making sense that instead of just giving the rational score I find myself having to explain myself in paragraphs. FOR PLASM WRAITH? ON A NIGHT BEFORE A NINTENDO DIRECT AND DK:TF???? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS???
Also, the only unique second rep Pikmin could get? Please. Louie makes much more sense as a second rep, has a lot of possible movesets that emphasize other aspects of Pikmin (e.g. the bugs, eating), has been central to the story twice now and is a character more than one person will want to personally beat up. Plasm Wraith is just some liquid stuff only really particularly specific pikmin people will care about while everyone else grabs their heads in dismay.

Want - 0%
Like I said, only Louie would make sense as a second, if any, Pikmin rep. Heck, I'd rather have anyone else from Pikmin. Give me Brittany, she's a cool botanist who constantly mocks her captain ... or THE CAPTAIN WHO HAS HIS OWN THEME. Anything else is literally better. Yes, it's my opinion, yes, it's harsh, but I'm willing to defend it if you want to take me on.

Salty.

I'm assuming you mean character development of Olimar when you say DEVELOPMENT. If not, then disregard this first part. The Plasm Wraith actually did develop Olimar's character towards the end of the game. It basically broke him/scarred him for life. Of course if you're talking about the Pikmin development, then like I said, disregard this.

Also, you act like we say Plasm Wraith is best flipping thing to become a Pikmin character(and apparently the only unique one). While I heavily support the Plasm Wraith, I understand that it's very unlikely, and Louie is probably a better/more iconic choice. But in reality, the only unique Pikmin characters I can see happening are Louie, Alph, and the Plasm Wraith. Louie can have a moveset based around PNF-404 creatures, like I've said many times in the past. Alph can use Rock and Winged Pikmin along with some engineer stuff. The Plasm Wraith could have many different things that I don't really need to bring up. Brittany and Charlie are awesome, but they just don't have a lot of potential. Brittany could work with fruit and plants in her moveset, but that doesn't represent the series very well. Charlie has almost nothing. The only move I can think of for him would involve his lucky rubber ducky.

/end opinion

Black Mage

Chance: 15%- Not entirely sure where to rate him, but Slime is more likely.

Want: 50%- I like his design and moveset in SSF2, but I would still prefer Slime

Pokémon Trainer

Chance: 60%- I'm pretty sure he's coming back, but he could get replaced.

Want: 70%- Just because he has Ivysaur and Squirtle. Not a big fan of Charizard.

Predictions

Super Mario 3D World Stage: 70%- New game with a lot of stage potential.

Chef Kawasaki: 3.6%- Not much of an all-star.

Nominations

Louie x5

 

[Glaciacott]

I still got it in for you

You always know the right words to make a girl happy.

(It would have been ok either way, I got to say my word and that's what matters in the end.
Thanks Groose!)

 

[Smasher 101]

Not many of us thought that Plasm Wraith would get that high of a score. Only one person's prediction was within 1%, and that person is... @ Starcutter . Meanwhile, @ OcarinaOfDoom had the best prediction for Lyn. Enjoy the extra five, you two!

Black Mage's chances: 0.5% - I don't see a Final Fantasy character happening.
Want: 0% - I don't really want one, either.

Red's chances: 95% - Same as before. That 5% is due to him being made up of several characters (I'm very doubtful of any other trainer at this point), which may put him on the chopping clock if cuts are necessary; still, the trainers are a rather important part of Pokemon, and he also happens to have Charizard, one of the most popular Pokemon out there. I think they'll bring him back.
Want: 60% - I'd prefer no cuts, but Red has become my least liked of the Brawl newcomers, so I wouldn't be too upset if he left.

Chef Kawasaki prediction: 1.65%
3D World Stage prediction: 42.18%

Goku (Yuyuki) x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Black Mage - the most iconic and Nintendo-relevant character in his series. One of the more likely third party characters after Pac-Man. 12%
Pkmn Trainer standalone - 4%?

"X" protagonist x5

 

[Starcutter]

Not many of us thought that Plasm Wraith would get that high of a score. Only one person's prediction was within 1%, and that person is... @ Starcutter . Meanwhile, @ OcarinaOfDoom had the best prediction for Lyn. Enjoy the extra five, you two!

Ironic that the people who put in the hardest effort in their posts for respective characters got the extra noms.

Find it real funny.



I'll do my stuff tomorrow.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Black Mage
Chance: 0% - If Sakurai is going to go through the trouble of getting a Square character in Smash then I'd like to think he would at least have his sights set on a real prize, like Sora or a main series Final Fantasy hero.
Want: 89% - Best character in Final Fantasy ix. His design is the perfect mix of cuteness and mysteriousness.

Pokemon Trainer
Chance: 80% - X and Y have kept the Kanto starters relevant, that helps him.
Want: 0% - I was never a fan.

Chef Kawasaki prediction: 0.04%
Super Mario 3d world stage prediction: 50%

Nominations: Improved stage builder x5

 

[Starcutter]

Was going to be a bland post, but I see some madness going on

First item
Plasm Wraith
Chance - 0%
Even that 25% chance I saw earlier was way too high, and then a 45% after that? For the love of whatever god you believe in, you have to have more sense than that. I may get unnecessarily intense, be warned

First things first: The main focus of the Pikmin games, arguably. is the environments and the pikmin, and for a long time the purpose of the captains was to have a way for the world to be introduced. Olimar is arguably not the protagonist as much as the Pikmin are, and if he's become such a character is because he's the necessary character to drive the story since the pikmin themselves need a leader.
Now, of course, Pikmin has began to expand as a franchise and it has thus given us much more story and character than the original game.
NONE OF THAT DEVELOPMENT INCLUDES, RELATES TO, OR HAS ANYTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH PLASM WRAITH
to compare Plasm Wraith to villains like K. Rool or Ridley is madness, and there's no reason Pikmin would require a "villain" character given that the series is not about villains but about survival in a hostile environment. IT MAKES NO SENSE!
The tone and character of the Pikmin series remains as one of nature and survival. Managing time and tools to accomplish a mission in the most efficient and effective way possible. The way some of you talk about Plasm Wraith makes it sound like it's a Mother Brain/Bowser-like character that's a foil to Olimar/the captains, and that's so far off making sense that instead of just giving the rational score I find myself having to explain myself in paragraphs. FOR PLASM WRAITH? ON A NIGHT BEFORE A NINTENDO DIRECT AND DK:TF???? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS???
Also, the only unique second rep Pikmin could get? Please. Louie makes much more sense as a second rep, has a lot of possible movesets that emphasize other aspects of Pikmin (e.g. the bugs, eating), has been central to the story twice now and is a character more than one person will want to personally beat up. Plasm Wraith is just some liquid stuff only really particularly specific pikmin people will care about while everyone else grabs their heads in dismay.

Want - 0%
Like I said, only Louie would make sense as a second, if any, Pikmin rep. Heck, I'd rather have anyone else from Pikmin. Give me Brittany, she's a cool botanist who constantly mocks her captain ... or THE CAPTAIN WHO HAS HIS OWN THEME. Anything else is literally better. Yes, it's my opinion, yes, it's harsh, but I'm willing to defend it if you want to take me on.

Lyn
Chance - 0.5%
Her time is long gone and Awakening had a much more tangible impact than her game did.

Want - 100%
I wanted her sooooo badly for Brawl. It was between her and Ike and Ike won and now she can't really even seem likely. It's sad really, given how much I love her character, her swords, her animations, her personality ... it also helps I love the swordmaster class and she's the lord that closest represents swordmasters with her super high speed crits with epic animation. Such a shame her boat has sailed.

Predictions
Pokemon Trainer - 73.7%
Don't know what to expect

can't remember if we're predicting anything else. Oh well

Nominations
x5 Super Mario 3D World Stage

And for the record, I'm hoping, and at the same time afraid, that this time tomorrow the DK rep situation will be more solidified. Best of luck to us all.

edit: dang it, I got groose'd

 

[Xenigma]

Black Mage - 0.1%
Black Mage is interesting considering it has actually appeared in Nintendo spin-off games Mario Hoops 3-on-3 and Mario Sports Mix. It's one of the more famous icons of the Nintendo years of the Final Fantasy franchise and, despite not being a true "character", has enough potential to stand on its own. That said, I still think it's extremely unlikely because there are plenty of options for actual Final Fantasy characters if Sakurai truly wants to pay homage to the series' time on Nintendo consoles (FF6 in particular has several options), and, in my opinion, I can't see Sakurai considering a generic Black Mage as being exceptional enough to sneak in as a third party character. Plausible enough to not get a zero, but it's awfully close to impossibility in my eyes.
Want - 0% - Beyond being kinda bland, I don't see what a Black Mage would add that Nintendo mages (both veterans and potential newcomers) don't. Seems like a poor choice to me.

Pokemon Trainer - 100%
He's a very famous character controlling three more very famous characters in a fashion that is extremely iconic to the franchise he comes from. As memory serves, he's also a character that Sakurai wanted to include as early as Melee. Why in the world would he ever be cut?
Want - 100% - One of my favorite newcomers from Brawl, and one of the smartest character ideas Sakurai and company have ever had. Would be a shame to ever lose him.

Chef Kawasaki Prediction - 0.6%
I think he won't do well, but I really don't know.

Super Mario 3D World Stage Prediction - 60%
I'd guess higher, but knowing how Epic Yarn went, people don't seem to want to rate stages too highly.

Nominations
Tetra x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Black Mage Likelihood: 1%
Want: 25%

Pokemon Trainer Likelihood: 90%
Want: 50%

Chef Kawasaki: .95%

3D World Stage: 58%

Rhythm Heaven stage x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Black Mage: 1%
Want: 100% The only three third party characters I actually want in are Pac-Man, Bomberman, and Black Mage

Pokemon Trainer: 75% The only thing against him is Pichu time constrains. But that could still change the outcome.
Want: 50% To much time wasted on a great series blooming with possibilities.

Chef Kawaski: 0.5%
Super Mario 3D World: 63%

x5

 

[Erimir]

Black Mage

Any Square Enix character seems quite unlikely to me. That's the first thing to start with. On the other hand, they did make Mario Hoops 3-on-3, Mario Sports Mix, Itadaki Street and Fortune Street, and those all featured crossovers of Mario and FF or DQ (or both FF & DQ) characters. The difference is that Square developed those games themselves, and so controlled the depiction of their IPs (and apparently they made their own characters overpowered in Mario Hoops).

The characters they used in the sports games? Black Mage, White Mage, Moogle, Cactuar, Ninja and Slime (Slime was in both Mario x DQ crossovers as well). I think Ninja is too generic, White Mage is not offensive enough, and Cactuar is too weird and not important enough/iconic enough. Slime is definitely the front runner for Dragon's Quest.

So plausible FF reps other than specific characters are the Black Mage, a Moogle or a Chocobo. Fortunately for them, the specific characters that are most famous are not from Nintendo games (Cloud, Squall, Tidus, etc.) or are much more prominently associated with Playstation (Sora). The more fitting characters are less famous and often from ensemble casts (Terra from FF6 suffers from this, unfortunately, since FF6 is my favorite FF game). Cecil from FF4 probably has the best chance of the Nintendo era protagonists. But both Cecil and Terra are hugely overshadowed by Cloud... who just feels wrong to put in (although if FF7 got an HD remake that came to the Wii U, I might reconsider... but I'd rather see an HD FF6).

Anyway, all of this is to say that Black Mage is actually one of the front runners for Final Fantasy since he's iconic, found in many FF games from both the Nintendo and Playstation eras, fulfilling a strong Nintendo connection while retaining FF relevancy. Moogles and Chocobos don't have very defined abilities, but you could put something together for them (of course... you could have a Moogle riding a Chocobo and fill in the gaps that way). Black Mage also has the benefit of being in the first Final Fantasy, which Chocobos (FF2) and Moogles (FF3) do not, which might appeal to Sakurai if he'd rather represent retro FF.

On the other hand, if you want to pick a character that will actually move some copies and excite Square Enix fans, it would seem that Cloud or Sora are the best choices.
But this is all just talk about pieces of a pie that's tiny in the first place.

Black Mage chances: 1%

Black Mage want: 35%
I wouldn't hate it, but I'd rather see Terra who does all he can do and more and is more interesting. He does seem like he would require some work to keep him from being too similar to Ness and Lucas. The three most common elemental spells for FF Black mages are lightning (like both), fire (like both) and ice (like Lucas). Other potential Nintendo mages (like Isaac) also have some overlap, although Isaac would probably emphasize earth magic a little more. There are other possibilities like earth, wind, water, poison and transformation spells, but fire, ice and lightning are the three big elemental spells in FF, so they would be the most fitting.

Pokemon Trainer

Not a lot has changed... but we got Lucario. Now we have Toon Link and Lucario, two of the characters people were thinking were the most likely cuts. It's looking like if we get cuts, they will really just be about time constraints or possibly due to 3rd party issues (for Snake). Not even uniqueness is that big of a problem, since Toon Link is no more unique than Lucas. Pokemon Trainer still has problems on the time constraint side, but otherwise I don't see much reason Sakurai would cut him.

PT chance: 91%
About the same as before, but I really really don't think we're getting a new Pokemon Trainer, so I basically gave that too him.

PT want: 60%
I like him alright.

Chef Kawasaki prediction: 1%
no clue
3D World Stage prediction: 50%
Too late to get a stage? Too similar to Galaxy, more likely to see a New SMB stage? Who knows what we'll see here.

Nominations:
Zelda newcomer x5

Lyn (Fire Emblem)
8.28% chance (previously 12.74%)
37.86% want (previously 36.26% )

I didn't check everyone's to see if there was someone closer than Xenigma, but... I guessed 8% and I know Xenigma guessed 8.5%, putting me perhaps just a mere .03% off from winning the noms.

Btw, have we had a situation where two people both won by being equally close in opposite directions?

 

[FalKoopa]

Sakurai is hinting at a reveal in the Nintendo Direct, but it's not as obvious as the update before Rosalina's one. We'll have another CONFIRMED! character soon enough.

Black Mage:
Likelihood: 1%
I don't see Nintendo going to Square Enix for a character although Black Mage is quite iconic, and has appeared in Mario Crossovers before.

Want: 60%
I really like the character, and would be happy to see him playable. I'll probably insta-main him.

Pokémon Trainer Red: 95%
With Lucario and Toon Link back, I can't see them removing Pokémon Trainer of all characters, time and techincal constraints be damned. Not just that, he was featured in Brawl's boxart, which tells us that he was a priority character in Brawl and considered worthy of advertising the game. Moreover, his pokémon have all received mega-evolutions making them relevant again.

Want: 100%
He was hands-down one of the best idea for a newcomer in Brawl, and I'll be extremely unhappy if he gets cut.

Chef Kawasaki: 1.2%
3D World Stage: 12%

Zelda newcomer x 5

 

[Xenigma]

I didn't check everyone's to see if there was someone closer than Xenigma, but... I guessed 8% and I know Xenigma guessed 8.5%, putting me perhaps just a mere .03% off from winning the noms.

Much as I would like extra noms, it looks like OcarinaOfDoom's Lyn prediction was 8.45, which by default beats mine.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm scared… we didn't get Diddy Kong in the Pic of the Day. I hope that he doesn't get revealed in today's Nintendo Direct. I am personally hoping for Monado Boy.

Black Mage and Pokemon Trainer Red have been added to this post.
If you've rated Pokemon Trainer Red, look back to see what you said on his day!

Black Mage
Chance: 1%
Black Mage fits into the aesthetic of Smash and it is generally the more popular of the Square Enix characters. Unfortunately… this is Square Enix we are talking about here and they are incredibly strict with their characters. When it comes to other third party characters before SSB4 was shown off at E3, people mentioned that they hope to see Sonic and Snake return, they want to see Mega Man in the game, and they talk about possible Namco characters. I don't think there is much about other third parties. I think that Black Mage does stand a good chance on his own accord, but I don't think that he will get in.
Want: 50%
He would be cool in terms of moveset potential. Also, if he gets in, then Cloud won't. So, that makes me happy immediately. However, my most wanted third parties will always be Sonic and Bomberman.

Pokemon Trainer Red
Chance: 90%
5% less than before. I think that Red could have a decent chance of getting cut if Sakurai wants to free resources. I mean, this is a three in one character we are talking about here and that takes up a lot of development time. However, I can't see him get cut as the Pokemon Trainer plays an important role in the games and his representation in Smash defined PTs perfectly. Red in particular is the most popular and I can't see him get cut for another trainer.
Want: 50%
I'm a bit conflicted. I like Red and I find him very deserving, but I would also wouldn't mind it if he got cut. Why? Again, to free up resources to put in three different characters on the roster. I'm happy either way if he comes back or if he gets cut.

Chef Kawasaki Prediciton: 1.52%
He might get some generosity by some people.

Super Mario 3D World Prediction: 3.14%
I can imagine the want being high. However, I bet tons might give 0s since we have a Galaxy stage already.

Nominations: Zael 5x

 

[Opossum]

Black Mage:

Want - 5%
Likelihood - 0%

Square-Enix, man...

Pokemon Trainer!
Want - 100%
I'd prefer no cuts.

Likelihood - 95%
The five percent is only if there's a limit issue. I feel he's a really safe choice, despite what some would have you believe.

Nominating IDEA: Chrom as a Stance character x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Black Mage

Chance - 0.75% - Yeah, Square is hard to work with. A famous third party he might be, but being from a notoriously strict company makes things difficult.

Want - 35% - Eh. Would rather have one of Nintendo's own magic wielders.


Pokémon Trainer

Chance - 96% - Yep, same as last time. I think only time restraints will get in the way of the return of any veteran at this point.

Want -- 100% - Not a single cut should happen on the roster.


Predictions

Chief Kawasaki - 0.95% - Why him, of all Kirby characters?

SM3DW stage - 45% - Mild pessimism due to the "New Super Mario" series and already getting a Galaxy stage.


Nominations
Nutty Noon Stage X5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Winning the extra noms for my favorite character is cool.

Black Mage: 0.45%
Want: 50%
PT: 97%
Want: 100%
Kawasaki: 0.65%
SM3DW Stage: 53.45%
Goku (YuYuKi) x 5
I'll be saving my extra noms for later...

 

[Aqua Rock X]

BLACK MAGE

Chance: 1% - Not good.

Want: 65% - He could be interesting.

POKEMON TRAINER RED

Chance: 90% - Very good.

Want: 95% - He is a veteran and was awesome in the SSE.

Chef Kawasaki Prediction: .2% - LOL nope.

SM3DW Stage Prediction: 40% - Pretty Good.

Nominations:
Tetra x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Black Mage: 0.35%
Square Enix has other mascots, and I'm not sure Black Mage would be their first pick for a playable character. Assist Trophy is likele assuming they actually collaborate with Sakurai on this game.

Want: 40%

Pokemon Trainer: 96.75%

Want: 99.9%

Chef Kawasaki prediction: 0.11%

Nominate:
Shantae x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Black Mage

It would be pretty strange to see, and considering how SquareEnix is with their property, not very likely. However, this is the one character from FF that i would be okay with, it screams nostalgia, and Nintendo.
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 50%

Pokemon Trainer

Oh man, this one is interesting. We know that PT is important to Pokemon, and he is fairly unique in the context of Smash. You get to play as the trainer, which is pretty neat, and make decisions like the Trainer, such as correct matchups. PT being a veteran also boosts his chances significantly.

Unfortunately for PT, it seems as this mechanic missed its mark. While the idea of a 3-transform character is pretty good on paper, the execution left much to be desired. The effectiveness mechanic made Ivysaur practically unplayable, due to about half the roster having access to some kind of fire ability. Same goes with the stamina mechanic, which actually frustrated players who only wanted to play as one the the 3 pokemon. PT fell victim of the "good in theory, poor in execution" idea.

Also consider that Pokemon is played for the Pokemon, not the trainer. Of course, training pokemon is important part of the game, but the series wouldn't be where it is today without the creatures in which the game is named after

Another thing wrong with PT is the development time. It would actually be easier and take less time to develop Chrizard, Squirtle and Ivysaur (CSI) separately, basically due to balancing issues. We have heard Sakurai say that adding a character is not simple addition, more like multiplication. Well the idea of adding multi-moveset characters, such as PT, can be thought of as exponential. Essentially, Every time Sakurai adds a character to the roster, he must balance said character with the rest of the roster, and adjust them accordingly. With PT, however, he must balance every character with PT, every character with each of CSI, and CSI as a whole. Basically, its a programming nightmare, and adding PT earlier will only make this worse, as revisiting the balance for PT would be difficult. At the very least, PT is being bumped near the end of the list to help alleviate this. I am confident in saying that re creating PT would take at least the dev. time of 3 other characters, and in a game where newcomers are crucial in every installment, this may not be a priority. In short, the time and resources needed to develop a character such as this may not be worth it when compared to something like say, a highly requested newcomer. He may miss the mark due to time constraints, whcih is alot of the reason why characters miss the roster to begin with.

In summary, PT is a veteran, is unique, offers alot in terms of potential. Unfortunately, the mechanics he possesses left alot to be desired, is difficult to program, and hard to balance.

Chance: 85%
Want: 50%

Chef Kawa-WHO?: 0.25%
SM3DW Stage: 45.6%

Nominations:
Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Louie G.]

I'm taking today off, because hype.
I'll definitely be rating tomorrow.

 

[Groose]

Hype, hype, hype! Based on recent events, it looks like we'll be having a two-day satisfaction special this weekend! I'm not sure about the update tonight; I'll try to pry myself away from post-Direct hype, but I can't guarantee that I'll be able to do so.

(and apparently they made their own characters overpowered in Mario Hoops).

You just beat the last tournament and finally have a chance to hoist your trophy? Sorry, Ninja and crew show up and steal it, forcing you to play them and in what I seem to recall is an extreme difficulty spike.

Btw, have we had a situation where two people both won by being equally close in opposite directions?

That was indeed the case once. Sadly, I can't recall when.

One thing I've always wanted to do was note down all of those who predicted the score exactly and the number of times they did so one the OP. Sadly, I just don't have the heart to go read through all of my old posts to determine who did it; if someone had some free time and wanted to do this, it would be a great contribution.

Ironic that the people who put in the hardest effort in their posts for respective characters got the extra noms..

That's actually something I find odd, too, especially because the people who put the effort into their posts are normally those who have nominated the same character for days and days. They have to find someone new to rate... but they have extra noms to do so.

 

[Starcutter]

black mage: 3%
Want 100%

PT chance 90%
Want: 90%

chef kawasaki: 1.5%
SM3DW 75.4%

Noms:

Grovyle x10

yup I went there

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Black Mage:

Chance: 1.3%
As I've thought about it the hero of light is a pretty decent idea, and one that could work. In said Hero the Black Mage is pretty much the only definite job class... That said, I think it would be more beneficial for both parties to put a Dragon Quest rep in the game instead. I do however give about 2% chance of an FF rep, with the Hero of Light (and Black Mage) as the front runners, Moogles and Chocobos following behind.

The idea of the Black Mage alone however seems extremely unlikely, and I feel the only reason people bring it up is SSF2. Black Mage is Iconic, sure, but nowhere near as much as Slime... I mean seriously, how many mages in jRPGs do you see with big pointy hats? And how many gelatinous low level monsters do you see? The simple fact that Slime like evemies appear in everything (even FF thanks to the Flan) should show just how much more Iconic he is.

However I do have one thing to disagree on the consensus. Square are notoriously protective of their characters, but the more I think about it the less and less I feel this is true. Bravely Default comes to mind, while stuff like the Time Mage may have been redesigned for it, the classic Black and White Mage stay the same, and that was made mostly by third party Silicon Studio (though they had help from the main Square FF team). It's not unprecedented, and they're making a sequel which shows A. their increased trust in others, and B. there acceptance that it makes business sense. Obviously Enix have been doing this forever, but the Square sid of the business seems to be picking it up too... Although it is kinda sad, in a way, that the best Final Fantasy in 10 years wasn't mad by Square...

The Biggest issue is Dragon Quest, the more profitable, more iconic, more popular in the land that cares for jRPGS, and the more Nintendo focused brother series... In Japan FF just can't get out from under DQ's shadow, and I think in Smash, it wouldn't be able to either.


Want: 30%
WHAAAATTTTTTTTT??????!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's even 40% for a Hero of Light including Black Mage.

Remember, anything over 25% is me liking the inclusion, anything over 50% is making me hyped.

Yeah. I actually do like Final Fantasy, they're riskier than Dragon Quest and try and envigorate and reimagine jRPGs... unless it's 10 and 13, 'cos they're just skill trees... but they did try and change things... I like that, it's plucky. The Thing about Dragon Quest is that it sticks to a formulae, and as such has had 10 games to perfect the formulae and balance everything beautifully, and I prefer that to the flashy, often glitch riddled, imbalanced world of Final Fantasy games... but it's not to say that what FF does is bad. Final Fantasy bought in many mechanics that have become staples in all jRPGs, and had some really interesting systems that are great fun... until you learn to break them... They've also had some fantastic successes, I prefer FFV (and four heroes of light, and bravely default, because they're all basically the same game, but taking the Enix route and polishing it to a fine balance) to ANY Dragon Quest game... apart from maybe 10, but I don't know, because we haven't gotten that yet! *grumble grumble*! Also, FFIX manages to sit just behind 5 (my favourite), 7 and 6. These both include a Black Mage, and the latter include the most iconic of the entire series! I think the overall Hero of Light is a better way to represent the series, and more interesting in design, but ultimately Black Mages are pretty cool. The Down-Sides however are pretty obvious, Black Mage isn't Vivi, or Galuf, or Edea or any of the specific Black Mages I care about, I don't think alone he's got enough to be a really interesting move set, and I don't think FF is the most deserving of a rep given the main series still panders to Sony... That said, if it weren't for competition within his own company this would be a much more minor point, especially as Black Mage is better representation of the recent retro-FF style (that I prefer even) that's going on with Nintendo console releases.

Then of course there's the eyevory tusk tusk in the room. He's not slime. I really want Slime, and while I would accept an FF character, and be happy they got in (unlike any other SE franchise *cough*KingdomHearts*cought*), it would quell a large part of my wishes for this game. My hype would drop because I want Slime, or at least a Dragon Quest character... it'd be heart-breaking, and for a while I'd really struggle with it... but I know in the end I'd enjoy the FF conclusion, and I'd even admit his Victory Theme would be better... and with potential stuff like Battle on the Big Bridge as stage tracks, there's definitely positives to be gleamed, even if the barring of DQ would be a big loss in my eyes.



Pokémon Trainer: 99.99%

Gimmicks are back in a big way, and the Kanto starters are super popular, and super relevant with X and Y. I think Gamefreak has really pushed the important (ie. not Pichu) Smash characters in X and Y, purposefully to make them fit, and to cater to fans. Lucario being the first mega evo, Mewtwo being the first shown off, the Kanto starters, and even Jigglypuff being part of the introduction to Fairy Type... it just seems too much of a coincidence. He's as much a lock as Mewtwo imho.

Want: 100%

I said in the Pokémon seperated day, I like the switch mechanic, and if they made it deeper (like they did with Aura) it would be really exciting and interesting. I don't want it gone, or the pokémon of it... although I'd be cool if Ivysaur became Bulbasaur instead, as he's my favorite starter.



Cooking Mama Chef from South Park: 0.12%
Kirby's Final Smash now? Go sleep with Chancellor Cole!

LETTERS AND NUMBERS: 67%
The 3DS Mario 3D Land stage will give people both pause on the too similar front and confidence that it can be done.


Fatal Frame Representation*5

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Oh, boy! A challenge! I love a good debate, and this one looks like it'll be fun! Normally I would script this out and toss in a few Ace Attorney gifs, but I feel that'd be a tad pretentious in this situation; we've seldom crossed paths before and you seem like a no-nonsense type of bloke.

The point I seek to prove is that Chrom and Lucina are more popular on a wider scale than is Lyn. I completely agree with you--Smash requests are certainly not equivalent to popularity as a whole. Wanting a character in Smash is different than liking a character, as I myself admitted just yesterday during our Dixie Kong discussion. So we're going to look at this from a non-Smash perspective.

I'll start this off with a concession--your knowledge of Fire Emblem trumps my own. Although we may not have crossed paths often, most of the times I've seen you have been in Fire Emblem discussions; you know your stuff, but I am a complete novice when it comes to the series. As such, I am forced to concede that among the hardcore Fire Emblem fans that you are a part of, Lyn's popularity is greater than that of Chrom. From what little I've seen of hardcore Fire Emblem discussion, Chrom is bashed for being a rather "bland" lord--I've seen at least four or five instances of "longtime" Fire Emblem fans saying something like this. There are other complaints, but this is one I see fairly often.

Yet for every person I've seen say Chrom is "bland," I've seen multiple people step up and defend him. A lot of these people are newer--they know not Lyn nor Roy to draw comparisons. And there lies the crux of this matter--what you know as the "Fire Emblem fanbase" is changing. Awakening has dramatically increased the number of Fire Emblem fans out there. I've seen dozens of people on a variety of sites (from GameFAQs to Miiverse to Nintendolife to YouTube) talk about how Awakening addicted them to the series, and how they really loved Chrom and Lucina (and it's always these two, with the Avatar never really mentioned outside of Smash discussion).

Lyn may have been among the most popular Fire Emblem characters, but that is quickly changing. You have an influx of people who are joining your community who only really know Awakening and the playable Smash characters--Lyn is not somebody they recognize or feel an attachment to. And even if they play through the older FE games and discover what makes Lyn such a great character, it will be Chrom and Lucina who hold a special place in their hearts, as they were the leads in their first game.

To clarify--their popularity doesn't come from "recency;" it comes from the vast number of people who started off with them. Recency wouldn't do anything for them if their game wasn't very successful and didn't introduce a lot of people to the series.

I'd like to keep writing and perhaps elaborate a bit more, but I really must get to ending the day now. Feel free to respond; I will do so as soon as I get a chance. Also, I apologize if I said anything stupid--as I made clear, I am on the outside looking in at the Fire Emblem series. I state what I see, and it may be different than what an insider such as yourself sees.

I'll bookmark this debate for later. I don't have as much free time as I used to. But, if I forget then feel free to remind me.

Roy's a smash veteran.

also fire

Exactly. You don't have to be recent to be more popular.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Black mage (chance and want) 0%
no. . .
Pokémon trainer - 99.75%
yes i'm not joking, I honestly believe that Red (the specific name that the trainers design is from) have almost no chance to be cut, first start with the obvious, his gimmick which can consult between three generations of the kanto starters, the fan favorite Charizard, the very popular squritle, and (sadly) ignored ivysaur (why does no one like ivysaur. . .he was personally my favorite out of the three of them) this gimmick that revolves around the pokemon battle system makes him unique because he's three playable characters in one, that along with the fact that they are some of the most popular pokemon (well except ivysaur . . .again) makes this fact alone basically uncuttable, along with the fact that he was promoted on the box art, I.e. a character who advertise brawl, the return of two of the most likeliest cuts (comeback king lucario, and better than original tink), and for a fact that they are improving gimmicks, just basically makes him very well returning, there is still the horribly low possibility of him being scraped for more development time, but I hardly doubt that would matter when compared to him
want - 100%
I mained him in brawl, I took the time to train with Squirtle, ivysaur, and Charizard, so much that they are three of the my most favorite characters, I absolutely love the gimmick, if he gets cut, i'll certainly be pissed
chef - 0.13%
Kirby says hi and he's hungry mate, run
SM3DW - 23.45%
I see it a bit low, considering galaxy, but some may vote a bit high for it, so I figure it'll be around the 20's range
Nominations:

X5

 

[loganhogan]

Black mage
chace 6.66%
He is mascot-like character and appeared with Mario in some spin offs, my opinion he should score higher than Geno.
want 0%

Trainer
Chance 99%
He'll probably be swappable with other trainers like wii fit trainer but I think he's going to stay.
want 50%

x3 Isa Jo
x2 Sheriff

predict .8% and 28%

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Pokemon Trainer Red's chances are no less than 100%. He's the most important character after Pikachu, and Pokemon Trainer is the most recurring, and currently the most promoted. Even more so than Mewtwo. And Red specifically ties with Mewtwo. Having the Origins movie/series (whichever it was) and having the main starters in X & Y