Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[LoneKonWolf]

wrestler - 1.57%
low chance of any rhythm haven character getting in, and his reason is based on internet and meme popularity
want - 50%
eh he could be really fun and cool, but yet at the same time it'll feel a waste of a slot, so I just cut it down in the middle and leave it at 50%
pokemon trainer assist - 2.55%
low low chance of this happening with poke balls
want - 100%
yes, I do want this, mainly because of two possible scenarios I keep thinking of when I think about a pokemon assist,
one is the guy from pokemon snap just going around takeing pictures, and occasionally would stop to take one of the fighters, causing him/her/it to flinch, trip ect, could be usefully to get your opponent in a vulnerable state,
the second idea is some trainer appears (I don't know who, could be professor oak, could be a generic trainer) and would just pop up and throw random pokeballs onto the stage, allowing the fighters to pick them up and activate them, very simple but yet chaotic idea i'll love to happen
Nightmare - 0.01%
let the zero's begin . . .
nominations:
seeing how I won the extra nominations, i'm just going to put them back up for godot
GodotX10

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Wrestler - 12%

Not likely, but certainly not impossible.

Want - 70%

I like the idea of a wrestler-styled fighter in Smash, and the Interview game in Rhythm Heaven Wii is epic stuff.

Spoiler

And the meme videos thatit spawned makes it all the more awesome. (in my opinion)

Spoiler

Pokemon Assist Trophy - 0%

There are already Pokeballs with a crapton of Pokemon to choose from, I can't see Sakurai deciding to add any Pokemon characters that aren't actually Pokemom themselves as Assist Trophies.

Want - 50%

Indifferent. I'm fine with Pokeballs.

Nightmare Prediction - 0.21%

Playable Master Hand x5.

 

[Captain Toad]

eh, got bored so I did it for you,
the people who got close too 5.34 is captain toad at 5% but was beaten by TCT phantom at 5.5% was about to call him a winner, before I ran acrose this post

Dang, so close. Haha.

Wrestler:
want and chance: abstain, never played it and short of looking pretty fun and cool, I can't really judge.

Pokémon assist Trophy:
chance: 0.5%
want: 10%

With the presumable return of pokeballs, I can't see them making an assist trophy from one of the other characters from Pokémon.

Nightmare: 2.5%

 

[Groose]

I'm back to see what's been going on here the last few days. I had a mixture of illness and heavy workload that's prevented me from doing much of anything Smash-related since Saturday.

Right now, I'm just responding to stuff and updating noms. The full update will be later today.
​

5x nomz Athena Cykes (probably going to score super low but she's one of my favorite characters of all time)

​

I think you chose the wrong Dual Destinies character to like. There's a much more entertaining character... standing at the other bench.

@ Groose

Did you miss my nominations for "Non-Character Hanafuda Representation (Stage, Item, Trophy, Sticker, etc.)"? Should be at 13 noms now. It hasn't been added to the list yet, but "Hanafuda Character" is up there with 10 nominations, so I'm worried that you may have misread it.

I definitely did add it, but I'm not sure if it has the exact same name as what you suggested. I'll look into it.

I'd also like to suggest "Stadium is a Punch-Out!! stage" to the concept list!

It shall be done.

Want: 90%
If not just to hear this in glorious HD:

Although I am actually counting on hearing this on the next WarioWare stage.

YEEEEEEES!

And I'm also sure this situation will happen again with another franchise XD

Hmmm... and what would that be? Kirby?

If you're insinuating Donkey Kong, I'm tending to agree more and more. Despite that, I will be a Kutthroat until the end.

I can't wait for Rhythm Heaven to get low want scores and abysmal chance scores.
Again.

Hey, it just doesn't have one character who is the star. If you were to tally Wrestler, Joe, and Monkey's scores up together, it'd end up being a very respectable, top-twenty score.

XD
The first page of this thread is so funny, everybody saying that Bowser Jr. is practically a shoo-in and the most likely Mario character.

Most likely Mario character? Ja, at the time it seemed so. Even so, I would never have called him a shoo-in back then because he just wasn't obvious enough and had too much competition.

Just want to delay Yarne and Owain ?

Actually, no. But it probably is best if we don't get to him until the weekend... I remember having to delay the end of Waddle Dee's day because it took me forever to make that Ace Attorney Style post. Considering I intend to top it for Yarne/Owain... yeah, probably is best if we delay it.

I'm just gonna use a quote from Groose himself that I found on the Jimmy T. support thread that basically sums up my entire thoughts on Jimmy T.

Yeah, that was back around when I first joined Smashboards. My opinions in general have shifted since then (Jr. Supporter-->Toad Supporter/ Palutena as best Kid Icarus character---->Hades as best Kid Icarus character, No to Bandaa Dee--->Eh, Cool I guess to Bandana Dee), but my statement mostly rings true here. If I were to have rated Jimmy, I'd have given him 5% chance and 85% want.

Someone finally nominates Young Link! Once I'm done with Reyn, I'll help you. It's time to lay Young Link to rest and be done with the veterans.

Does that mean I can finally change the section's name from "Unrrated Newcomers (and Young Link)" to just "Unrrated Newcomers?" GOLLY!

OK. Enough PokePuns!

I see no Shaymin continuing.

This thread gets the honor of my 2000th post!

...and to think, I used my 1,000th post a declaration of support for K. Rool.

Thanks! Just didn't want my extra noms to go to waste.


Non-Character Hanafuda Representation x3

HERO OF LIGHT*5

B....B....But I remember adding those in! HOW ARE THEY NOT IN THE NOMINATIONS LIST? It makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

[Erimir]

Rhythm Wrestler

Don't remember what I gave the others exactly, but given what was said about the others, I can't imagine he is more likely than them.

Rhythm Wrestler chance: 0.5%
Want: 10%
Meeeeeeh.

Pokemon Assist Trophy

Why would they bother? If they have a crapton of ATs this time, maybe they'll get around to it. If it's only one per series for the most part then I'm thinking no, because Pokeballs are already like a dozen ATs for Pokemon. No matter how many non-Pokemon characters get left out because of it.

Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
Why would I want this instead of other series?

Nightmare (Soul Calibur) Prediction: 0.35%
Fighting game characters not eligible, but someone's gonna give him a chance, should do similarly to Ryu.

Nominations:
Zelda newcomer x5

 

[Chandeelure]

Hmmm... and what would that be? Kirby?

Yeah, that was back around when I first joined Smashboards. My opinions in general have shifted since then (Jr. Supporter-->Toad Supporter/ Palutena as best Kid Icarus character---->Hades as best Kid Icarus character, No to Bandaa Dee--->Eh, Cool I guess to Bandana Dee).

Give me a hug, bro.

 

[Louie G.]

RHYTHM WRESTLER:

Chance: 6.5%
I'll be fair on this one. I personally don't see it, but a Rhythm Heaven character is not out of the realm of possibility. The fact that it's a meme may help a little bit.
(I think Karate Joe is more likely actually)

Want: 100%
He's one of the characters that I really want but never really mention. His zany moveset and over the top poses would translate well into Smash. Not to mention, we don't have a traditional wrestler/grappler. And Rhythm Heaven needs SOME recognition.

POKEMON ASSIST TROPHY:

Chance: 2%
Really, I don't see this happening unless its like, Nurse Joy or something like that. But Pokéballs are essentially assist trophies for Pokémon, so there's no need to add a Pokémon assist trophy. Although I've heard that Gardevior was actually planned as an assist at one point.

Want: 0%
There's no need.

Nightmare Prediction: 0.75%
He falls into the same category as Ryu, but his company is not represented yet. But Pac-Man tho.

Noms:
Palutena x5
Also I want to nominate Super Mario 3D World stage after this.

 

[Morbi]

Pokemon Assist Chance: 1%
If Meowth wasn't an assist trophy, I don't think any Pokemon character will be. He has so much potential, they didn't need to use a generic Meowth.

Pokemon Assist Want: 100%
The franchise shouldn't be excluded just because we have an item in that franchise, albeit, and item that functions similar to an assist trophy. However, there are plenty of options that don't require the Pokeball.

 

[Deleted member]

If I were to have rated Jimmy, I'd have given him 5% chance and 85% want.

Just out of curiosity, what would you have given to Sheik yesterday in chance and want?

Does that mean I can finally change the section's name from "Unrrated Newcomers (and Young Link)" to just "Unrrated Newcomers?" GOLLY!

YES! But only when Reyn gets his Time here. Though, he will most likely be decimated…

Rhythm Wrestler

Don't remember what I gave the others exactly, but given what was said about the others, I can't imagine he is more likely than them.

Rhythm Wrestler chance: 0.5%

I was wondering, do you ever check my Directory? For reference, you gave Karate Joe a 3% chance and "a Rhythm Heaven character" concept a 8.5% chance.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I'm beginning to wonder how Karate Joe even got a 13% chance in the first place.

Edit: Oh my god did I seriously give him 35% back then

 

[McDuckletts]

Rhythm Wrestler
Chance: 7%
While I can see RH getting a rep, I don't see this character being the top choice.
Want: 90%
With that said, I would absolutely love to play as this guy.

Pokemon AT
Chance: 10%
Want: 15%
mite b cool

Nightmare prediction: 0.27%

Nom: PT Pokemon (no trainer) X5

 

[Groose]

I'm beginning to wonder how Karate Joe even got a 13% chance in the first place.

Edit: Oh my god did I seriously give him 35% back then

I believe the propaganda machine (aka, you and I) presented him as the end-all, primary choice for a Rhythm Heaven rep. Then subsequent Rhythm Heaven ratings dropped because people doubt a rep for the series and see it has internal competition.

Just out of curiosity, what would you have given to Sheik yesterday in chance and want?

87.5%/60% or so.

 

[Gunla]

Abstaining Today. Sorry for anyone who wanted to hear my input, but unfortunately I don't really see me giving out a good rating today.
Dammit, forgot to predict. Regardless of whether you take it or not @ Groose I'll put my prediction as 0.01%.

 

[Groose]

Rhythm Wrestler: 5%
I honestly don't know. There are five characters that I could see happening from this series (Wrestler, Joe, Girl, Marshal, Monkey), but all of them offer up the same basic benefits: rhythm based moveset, bringing more content for their series. I don't really see any advantages of having one over another. From now on out, all of them will earn 5% chance... which makes 25% chance for having a Rhythm Heaven character.

Rhythm Wrestler Want: 65%
Actually, he's the character I'd most want from the series, and I didn't even know about the meme. He's got a cool design, and I feel he could have an interesting, over the top moveset. We need more showboaters! Even so, I actually hadn't heard of him until he was being nominated, so he's not among my most desired.

Pokemon Assist Trophy: 25%
The majority of Pokemon characters are...Pokemon. The characters that are best suited to help out in a smash are... Pokemon. All of the Pokemon items in Brawl were... Pokemon. Still, Pokemon does have a rich history of human characters they could draw upon to make this happen, so it's definitely not an impossibility; I just doubt they'll opt for it.

Pokemon AT Want: 50%
I'm fairly indifferent. It would be kind of cool to see Oak, or Snap, or Team Rocket, or a Gym Leader, but I'm not exactly hoping that will happen.

Gangplank Galleon x5

Nightmare Prediction: 0.04%
Ryu is the most famous fighting game character of all time, so people treatted him as a bit of an exception to the fighting character rule. Nightmare... is not so legendary.\

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE



​

 

[Groose]

Rhythm Wrestler (Rhythm Heaven)
4.82% chance
48.50% want
STRIKE A POSE! The Wrestler received a higher want score than previous Rhythm Heaven characters, but his chances aren't so great. Ah well.

Pokemon Assist Trophy
3.80% chance
34.48% want
You know what Pokemon is all about? Catching them all. And you do that with Pokeballs. By that logic, people see little need or desire for an assist trophy from the series.

Brace yourself! The zeroes are coming! Nightmare from Soulcalibur is coming to rate their chances; please rate Nightmare in chance and want. And after that... there's a certain leak... and a certain stage... all tied into a certain character... that we all need to discuss. Yeah. Here comes the Lady of Light, Palutena, Rank Four on the chance charts. Please rate Palutena in chance and want today. I must remind you--even if you believe in the leak, unless you are absolutely certain that it is real, you probably shouldn't give her a 100% chance. And if you don't believe the leak, still give her the respect she commands--a fake leak doesn't mean she has no chance.

Tomorrow... well, we'll have a new all-time low on the chance charts. Yuuup, Yarne and Owain, two of the lowest rated characters on the chance charts, are teaming up. Please predict how the Yarne/Owain tagteam will fare in tomorrow's game. Hint: if you give above a tenth of a percent, you're insane. Utterly insane. @ Headcrab Jackalope wins the noms today.

 

[Glaciacott]

Dang it, missed it by four minutes. Last time I go to the bathroom.

Nevermind, 18 minutes, can't blame the bathroom ...

Nightmare, non-Kirby version
Chance and Want 0%
I can't even remember people nominating this ... thing?

Palutena
Chance - 80% 95%
Keeping it high, and even though I want to go around 95%, I'll be a bit more conservative. It IS possible she becomes the new Ridley and get denied a chance to participate regardless of being so dang obvious of an addition. But in between the leak and Sakurai clearly trolling ... I gotta believe she's happening.

Wait ... I gave her a 90% before? Screw it then, I'm giving her 95% ... I believe in her being in the game now more than ever, got to keep consistent.

Want - All of it (100% for calculation purposes, unless you want to go higher ... )
Most wanted character. Of all. I'd buy the game for her, but then again can't really say that because if it's Smash I'll buy it ... because Smash.
However she plays, whatever her tierage winds up being, I'm maining her. I'll probably main others, but it's mainly her. So watch out Smashboards.

Prediction
Yarne/Owain - 0.36%
Waa ... already? That was fast.

Nominations
x5 Bowser Land

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Nightmare chances: 0%
Want: 0%
Palutena chances: 60%
Want: 0%
Noms: Chef Kawasaki X5

 

[Pacack]

Nightmare:

Chance: 0%
Not happening. Sorry, no fighting characters, third party, and not getting in until Pac-Man does.

Want: 0%
No.

Now for the actually interesting one:

Palutena:

Chance: 85%
Near-lock. The leak looks like it's legitimate, and, even if it's not, Palutena's got everything going for her.

Want: 100%
I love Palutena's character, and I would love having another magician in the cast.

Yarne-Owain Tag Team Prediction: 0.02%
What? Really?

Noms: Non-Character Hanafuda Representation x3, Diskun x2

Hey, @ Groose , could you rename it to "Non-Character Hanafuda Representation" exactly? I'm talking specifically non character representation, and it's not clear when listed simply as "Hanafuda Representation".

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Nightmare: 0%
Want: 0%
Paletuna: 70%
Want: 35%
The Best Tag Team Ever: 0.03%
Nominate:
uhhh... Lyn x 5. I guess.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Palutena Chance: 95% Thanks to Kid Icarus Wii U and 3DS stage, the Palutena leak, and her moveset potential with her light powers I can happily say she's near a lock at this point.
Palutena Want: 100% All my yes please.
Y+O Tagteam prediction: .13%
Nominations:
x5 Harry

 

[Rouge]

Nightmare Chance & Want: 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 0 00 0 00 %

Palutena Chance: 93% - I do believe the leak to be legit and even if it's not Palutena was always very likely anyway. Sakurai's recent teasing kind of shows that the leak was brought to his attention. Now, I really think that for Sakurai to be aware of something that happened on a non-Japanese forum, it has to be pretty big. If it was a fake and Palutena was just a statue, my guess is that nobody at Nintendo would have cared much and we wouldn't be getting those tease updates since the leak. My only doubt comes from the fact that the leaker apparently had their hand on a Smash cartridge and only leaked two pictures, including one with Mario. Why not reveal more while you're at it? But I'll give the leak the benefit of the doubt since there is no backstory to it and we don't know the hows and the whys. I'd be utterly shocked if Palutena was left out.

Want: 100% - Definitely one of my favorites since the beginning. KI needs a second rep and she's the best choice. The reason why I love Palutena so much comes from my eternal love for classic mythology goddesses so I was totally defenseless to her charms from the beginning. I would not only be shocked if she missed the cast, I'd also be crushed.

Prediction: Yarne and Owain: 0.04

Panther x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Nightmare and Palutena have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Palutena before, check your scores to see what you said on her days!

Nightmare
Chance: 0%
If there was a Namco character, it would be Pac-Man… not Nightmare. I think that some people said that he might be too much for Smash or something? Whatever the case may be, he has no chance of getting in and it doesn't help that he originated from a fighting game series.
Want: 0%
It would be a Nightmare if he got in.

Professor Pretty Palutena
Chance: 50%
30% lower than before.
Things have changed, namely a stage has been confirmed that has a Palutena statue in the background, but it was nothing major to affect my score. What has changed? My thoughts. To be honest, I am incredibly skeptical about Kid Icarus getting a second character. While Palutena is a popular character and has fan demand worldwide, I can see Kid Icarus get a character and yet not get one. It seems to me that Pit would represent the series perfectly for Smash, but I guess Palutena can add something to the series. I do think that Sakurai working on Kid Icarus helps her chances rather than hurt them.
As for the leak, I am dismissing it in regards to her chances. The leak looks impressive and even believable, but I don't believe things until I see them, no matter how convincing a fake may be.
Honestly, it's Palutena or it's no one for a second Kid Icarus rep. I just dunno if Kid Icarus will get that second slot.
Want: 50%
I went on another website and asked how would they react if Palutena was confirmed to be a playable character in SSB4. I will quote what one of my best friend's said in regards to Palutena (and he only posted this):

Spoiler

Also, I want Hades.

Yarne and Owain Tag Team Prediction: .12%
The dark lords of RTCR have joined forces to create a tag team? That's evil…
Call me insane for giving this the same rating as Chancellor Cole and Banjo, but there WILL be people who will give 1% and many who will give 0%, .01%, or .1%.

Nominations: Reset Bombs can't reset Reyn time! 5x

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

HOW CAN I HELP YOU KING DEDEDE- wait, wrong Nightmare: 0.05%
A wise man once said(possibly in this thread, I forget where I saw it) that the only Soul Calibur character that would make it into Smash is Link.

Want: 0.2%
I didn't even know there was a guy named Nightmare in Soul Calibur until I saw him brought up in roster discussions. Is he the protagonist? Cause he's the only SC character I ever see discussed. Anyway, I'd be only slightly less peeved to see him in Smash Bros. than I would to see Pac-Man. Wahoo.

Palutena: 27.5%
No real reason for me to believe that this leak is any more real than any others, plus she's still a supporting character in a fairly small (3-game) series.

Want: 35%
One Kid Icarus rep is fine for me.

OYwayrnie tag-team: 0.07%

Nominate:
Kunio-Kun/Alex x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Nightmare:
Chances:0%
Want:0%

-Palutena:
Chances:92%
Want:40% Medusa

-Yarn and Owain tag team prediction:0%

-Nomination:Dixie Kong X5

 

[Xenigma]

In the interest of not allowing the leak to influence my rating, I'm going to go ahead and just re-use what I gave Palutena way back on the very first newcomer rating day (I apparently missed her first rerate). Let's see, I gave her...

...40%? Seriously? Was I really so crazy half a year ago that I underrated her that much? I mean c'mon, she was clearly a fan favorite and now that we have screens of her in-game, surely rating her so low was a big lapse in judgment!

...yet now that I'm thinking about it, that rating had a pretty decent grounding in reality, and in truth my opinion on her hasn't really changed since then. Perhaps using the old rating was a good idea after all!

Palutena - 40%

See, here's my beef with Palutena: she had a starring role in one game. One. There are a handful of Smash characters that have gotten in with similar credentials, but it doesn't exactly instill confidence nor set someone apart as a top candidate. She may already be a fan favorite thanks to the KI revival turning her from a bland plot device into a full-developed, generally great character, but her true importance and "star power" are questionable, and more than that, KI:U's moderate success doesn't really call for a second character when Pit's already doing a fine job repping the series. She's worthy of a solid rating because she is the natural choice if Sakurai thinks a second slot is deserved, especially when the rest of the competition from KI:U in particular isn't nearly as strong, but again, I just don't think it's anywhere near a certainty that should actually happen, not unless KI:U had been a much bigger hit than it actually was. I think a fair rating would be that KI has roughly a 50/50 chance of getting a second character, and if we allow all her competition roughly 10% (which I'd divide as 5% to Medusa and Hades), then Palutena gets 40%.

Want - 50% - I don't really care, but she's interesting enough and deserving enough that I wouldn't oppose her inclusion.

And now back to the normal day of rating:

Nightmare - 0%
Fighting game characters are disconfirmed, so automatically Nightmare is out. Even if that were not the case, though, Namco would surely give far greater priority to including the legendary Pac-Man if they were to get a character in Smash, and beyond that, maybe a character like Lloyd from Tales of Symphonia who is a fan favorite character primarily associated with Nintendo, and even beyond that, there's always the storied Tekken franchise to consider first. Even if we go to the extreme scenario where a Soul Calibur character is considered, there's still considerable competition from the likes of Mitsurugi and Siegfried to overcome to finally win that one spot. In short: not only is Nightmare disconfirmed, he's such a longshot regardless that there's really no reason to seriously consider him as a possibility. (On the plus side, at least he's more plausible than tomorrow's duo!)
Want - 0% - A third party character should be a lot more important (or at least more associated with Nintendo) than what Nightmare is. A poor choice for such a coveted spot.

Yarne and Owain Prediction - 0.04%
At first I thought this day would be dumb. That hasn't really changed, but now I think it'll end up pretty hilarious too, so bring it on!

Nominations
Young Link x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sakurai's comments about fighting characters aside, kNightmare would have been a fine second choice for a Namco character. He practically the mascot of a beloved series. Unfortunately, Namco has another series in the same vein that is more well-known: Tekken.
0.2%

Palutena = 95%

prediction - 0.02%

nominate Alexandra Roivas x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Nightmare's chances/want: 0% - Chance is obvious, I like Soul Calibur but I don't think it should get a character in Smash.

Palutena's chances: 90% - I think the leak's most likely legit, so 20% increase. Even if it isn't I'd still be surprised if she's not in the game.
Want: 90% - I liked Uprising, I liked her, and I think I'd enjoy playing as her.

Yarn and Oven prediction: 0.03%

Mewtwo x5

 

[Starbound]

Abstaining from Nightmare because I really don't know who it is.

Palutena:
ughhh

I really don't know.

On one hand, I'd put Kid Icarus at around a 55% chance of getting a newcomer. We've got a lot of Kid Icarus content (two stages, 1 item, which is more than most series), so I think it looks like Uprising is on Sakurai's mind, and that he views it as an important game to Nintendo's history.

But on the other, there's the leak. And in terms of the leak's quality, it's flawless. There is nothing that shows that it was used in an image editing program, and, as shown by the reveal of Palutena's Temple, the two faces are identical, which is pretty decisive evidence. So yeah, I'm conflicted. I've never believed in any Smash leak before, but I think this one might be legit.

Screw it. Let's go with 85%. Sakurai's bias towards Uprising has become pretty apparent (especially with it getting a stage on both the Wii U and 3DS. I'd be surprised if Mario Galaxy got that same treatment). Even if Nintendo doesn't think it is an important IP, Sakurai does and that matters a lot for Smash Bros.

Want: 100%
Kid Icarus: Uprising is a very special game to me for a few reasons, and Palutena, alongside the whole cast, made me fall in love with the game.

5x nomz Athena Cykes

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Good to be playing this again

Nightmare

Well I can't vote him because I've never heard of nightmare

Palutena

Likelyhood 90%
The picture today help a little and plus with the leak that might be real and sakurai is the owner of kid Icarus and how requested she is very very good chance

Want 90%

I would love to see a moveset from her

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

WOOO EXTRA NOMS JACKALOPES GONE WILD

Nightmare

Chance:0.01%- I just can't see it happening.

Want: 0%- Don't know much about him.

Palutena

Chance: 80%- Even before the leak, I thought she had a very high chance, due to being the most likely KI character.

Want: 75%- I've never played the Kid Icarus games, but I adore Palutena's design and personality.

Yarne and Owain Prediction

0.08%

Nominations

Plasm Wraith x10

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Nightmare Likelihood and Want: Abstain

Palutena Likelihood: 90%
Want: 40%

Yarn and Owaine: .08%

Rhythm Heaven stage x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Nightmare

Chance - 0% - Just because he has a sword (or, rather, is a sword), he can't escape being a fighting game character from a third party series that has many more famous options.

Want - 30% - Don't hate him, per say, but he clashes more than Snake in the game and he doesn't interest me move set wise.


Palutena

Chance - 97.5% - While there's just a hint of doubt that the leaked images could not be real, I'm inclined to belive them after the same person who discofirmed the "Ness and Jigglypuff leak" thinks that is real, and has made evidence that is true. I can't put up any evidence that it is false, and there are so many details that are right that it's hard to not say that it is true.

Want - 100% - My most wanted character, and she has been leaked. Arg, the pressure is unbearable, so just show her already Sakurai! Nothing that could happen would ruin a playable appearance from her.


Yarne and Orwain Prediction - 0.05% - I still expect Scrooge to outperform these two zeros.

Nominations
Epic Yarn Stage X4
Nutty Noon Stage X1

 

[colder_than_ice]

Nightmare
Chance: 0% - Soul Calibur's popularity is in decline, it also doesn't help that he is from a fighting game.
Want: 9% - I don't really care.

Palutena
Chance: 85% - I don't care how small of a franchise Kid Icarus is, I would still be absolutely shocked if it doesn't get a second rep. Character popularity and development plays just as big of a role for getting characters in Smash. No game (I REPEAT, NO GAME) that Nintendo has made in the past few years has done that better than Kid Icarus Uprising. It created so many characters that are humorous, relatable, heartfelt, well developed, and overall perfect for Smash. Palutena stands out as being the most likely of the bunch.
Want: 86% - She'd be perfect.

Yarne and Owain prediction: 0.025%

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Nightmare
Likelihood: 0.1%

Want: 0%

Palutena
Likelihood: 85%
It's not so much the leak that has convinced me but, the fact that Sakurai has been putting Kid Icarus pictures up on the website to go along with it. I've thought that she was very likely before the leak.

Want: 100%
I remember thinking a long time ago it would be awesome if the chick in the background of Pit's final smash became playable character and now it just might happen.

Yarne and Owain
Prediction: 0.2%

Nominations:
F-Zero Newcomer x5

 

[RankoChan]

Nightmare -
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I'm a fan of Soul Calibur, but the series has no reason to ever appear in Smash Bros. Plus Sakurai has stated that 3rd parties are a very limited, unique case and not to expect more than one (possibly two) 3rd party newcomers at the most.

Palutena -
Chance: 99%
I believe that the leak is legit, along with the recent Kid Icarus miiverse teasing and the new stage reveal based on the Palutena battle in Uprising, she's a lock at this point. She's become an important character within her own series and even received two anime specials about her; I'd be absolutely shocked if she wasn't playable. You can't forget Sakurai's personal involvement with her recent game too.
Want: 100%
Palutena is of my top 4 most wanted newcomers list; I loved her character in Uprising and in her anime specials!

 

[FalKoopa]

Nightmare (SoulCalibur):
Likelihood: 0%
Sakurai has ruled out fighting game characters already. Get over it.

Want: 0%
Nope. Too unfamiliar with the franchise, and not interested in it either.

Palutena:
Likelihood: 78%
I don't really believe in the leak, though I find it incredible that it has managed to hold out for so long. Regardless of the leak, I think Palutena has a really good chance overall, being a popular and decently requested character around the world and Sakurai being responsible for what she is today.

Want: 100%
One thin, I haven't played Uprising. Yet why is the want score so high? I've done a decent amount of research on the game and the franchise, but my want comes almost exclusively from Palutena's Revolving Dinner. I think if I watch a Let's Play of the game, my want percent will go over 9000, but I won't, as I'd rather experience the game myself.

Yarne and Owain: What the hell? I would have removed the nominations from the list without batting an eye.
0.1%

Promoted AT X 5

 

[Starcutter]

Nightmare: zero for both. He's not even my favorite character in that series. Link is

Palutena: 97.5% all signs point to YUS
Want: 100%

Yarwain: oh boy. Um, 0.08%. Yeah, about right.

Noms:

When legendofrob is busy Alfonzo is in charge of noms.

Alfonzo: leave it to me!

(x5)

 

[Erimir]

Nightmare

Chance and want: 0%
Simple. He's not eligible since he's from a fighting game. On top of that, he's third-party. Besides that, he's not that famous, not that great, not that wanted and doesn't fit in well with the cast.

Palutena

The leak looks fairly convincing. I can also believe Sakurai is responding to it by posting more Kid Icarus pictures, including last night's featuring Palutena's statue. If not for the seeming precedent that newcomers are going to be revealed in Nintendo Directs, I'd almost think we're about to see her soon. Of course, that could be a fake precedent. Depending on how many newcomers there are and how many they're going to reveal before release, they might not want a Nintendo Direct for each one.

Anyway, the other factor in her favor is that Sakurai has really been playing up the female characters since Rosalina's reveal. I think he has decided to make an effort to add more female representation. It makes me think that being a female character IS a positive, especially when she's one that's interesting, has fan-demand and the appropriate stature to appear in the game.

As such, I will be increasing my score for Palutena. Before I did not give her a very high chance. But these two factors aren't enough to make me think she's practically confirmed. She could still not be in. Sakurai doesn't like to mislead, but he is willing to let us extrapolate wildly, and he might be doing so with the recent KI pics. If the leak is fake, and Palutena is not in (or it's real, but she's not playable), this would seem a little mean. It would seem better to just ignore it or confirm that it was fake if that were the case.

If the leak is real, he wouldn't necessarily want to confirm that right away either, but he could tease like he's been doing. Same if the leak is fake, but she's still in.

Palutena chances: 75%
Before I rated her a 38% and a 45%... this gets her about 50% of the way to confirmed.

Yarne & Owain prediction: 0.1%
It's hard to guess exactly where these will end up. But it should be close to zero...

Nominations:
Young Link x5

I was wondering, do you ever check my Directory? For reference, you gave Karate Joe a 3% chance and "a Rhythm Heaven character" concept a 8.5% chance.

I do look at it. I just didn't feel like it in this case. I was figuring that the other Rhythm Heaven characters would get a couple percentage points each to make the math work.

Sakurai's bias towards Uprising has become pretty apparent (especially with it getting a stage on both the Wii U and 3DS.

But is it an Uprising stage on the Wii U, or a stage using a location from the original Kid Icarus, done in Uprising style?

He might be giving each series a stage on each platform regardless of whether their games are primarily handheld or not. It's not clear to me that it's bias. And in this case justified since KI has appeared on both console and handheld. If, say, F-Zero gets a Wii U stage but no 3DS stage (despite having had a GBA game) then I'll be more inclined to call it bias.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Nightmare
Chance: 0.0002%
Okay, you remember Sakurai's quote about fighting game characters? Then remember how well Ryu did? Then remember Ryu is far more legendary than Nightmare. His destiny is screwed.

So in his favour; Namco. Namco are helping with the game. However, apparently they won't be receiving any special treatment when it comes to representatives(uh huh...like being friends with Hideo didn't give Konami any special treatment, I'm sure).

Now consider Namco; the almighty legendary Arcade hero Pac-Man, THE mascot character who was a huge craze and deal in the 80s and early 90s stands in Nightmare's way. After him there's also the ever popular Lloyd Irving, and platform hero Klonoa to contend with.

Heck, even from Namco fighting games there's a ton of competition; Tekken and Yoshimitsu in particular who appears in both Tekken AND Soul Calibur.

I guess you could say this character is in a Nightmare position.

Want: 0%

Pac-Man for Namco rep, Ryu's a better 3rd party fighting game rep(and I don't really want him either)

Pretty Palutena, the Goddess of Light
Chance: 95%

She seems like the newcomer with the most chance right now. More so than Little Mac I'd say. Between those 'leaks' and the statue, it seems like there's a scattering of hints towards the Goddess of Lights inclusion for SSB4.

Want: 50%

I feel bad considering everyone and their mother wants her, but I don't really get Palutena. I don't dislike her, but I don't quite get her either.

A lot of the fan want appears to come from her witty dialogue in Uprising and her short, which I don't see translating well into a fighting game when you have to hear the same witty lines repeatedly ad nauseam, something which will definitely render each great gag considerably less funny over time. Despite what Youtube Poop used to make out; the key to humour is NOT repetition. Unless it's Falcon Punch. That gets a free pass.

Ignoring that obvious flaw though, Palutena seems like a fine character; she's got a staff, light magic, can summon Centaurions, etc...but since I haven't played Uprising yet, I don't have the same level of connection that many here do.

I've played Kid Icarus(the original) so she's currently just another damsel to me like Peach, Zelda, Daisy or Pauline. Albeit a more powerful damsel.

The other thing is I'm concerned that Kid Icarus won't be getting any future releases. It's a minor point, but if that's the case I'd really just prefer Pit to rep the series alone.

Again, not against her, just haven't quite got what all the fuss is about yet.

Yarne + Owain Prediction: 0.004%
Hey, I like Yarne(explained why I think he's a hugely unlikely but excellent rep of FE as a whole already) and I don't mind Owain, but this combination wouldn't happen even if they were possible contenders.

Nominations: Meowth X 5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

NIGHTMARE

Chance: 0% - No.

Want: 0% - No.

PALUTENA

Chance: 90% - Yes.

Want: 90% - Yes.

Yarne/Owain Team Prediction: 0% - Never.

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5