Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Yams]

Samurai Goroh:
Likelihood: 20% I don't see another F-Zero rep, but if there was one I'm guessing Goroh would beat out Black Shadow.
Want: 85% He's really cool.

Lucas: 85% If there are a lot of cuts, Lucas is out.

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Erimir]

Samurai Goroh

Popularity: I'm not sure why people think Samurai Goroh is the clear choice over Black Shadow when in Japan, Black Shadow is by far more popular among Smash fans. That said, he's more popular than Black Shadow in the US, and more on his own terms (while some of Black Shadow's popularity is coming from Ganon fans who want Ganon to have his own moves). He's definitely at least the 2nd most popular F-Zero choice for newcomer.

Relevancy: Samurai Goroh, in addition to being popular, was in Brawl as an AT.

Design: Personally, I don't find Goroh's look that great. Anywho, he uses a sword and he's a fat samurai. But like Captain Falcon he doesn't have any moves, really. At least not in the games. There may be some moves in the anime they could use. But they'll most likely just have to invent a move set. The problem is that there are similar characters like Takamaru (or other sword users) that have more interesting move set potential.

Roster and Competition: F-Zero isn't getting more than one new slot. And it's not even likely to get a new slot. Sakurai has said that he wants to even out franchise representation though, so it's still possible.

But he does have some significant competition from Black Shadow. As I mentioned, Black Shadow is much more popular in Japan (more wanted than the majority of characters), and in the West, Black Shadow is not THAT far behind. I have a feeling that Japanese desires are weighted a little more heavily in the process. Not necessarily intentionally, but Sakurai spends most of his time interacting with other Japanese people, and I don't think the decisions are based purely on hard data. But he doesn't have the hugest edge, since Goroh DID get the AT. Then again, maybe Sakurai just thought Goroh made a better AT?

Samurai Goroh chances: 8%
I think F-Zero's chances of getting a new rep are worse than 1 in 5. And I give slightly more than half of that to Black Shadow. The rest goes to Goroh.

Goroh want: 30%
As I mentioned, I don't like Goroh's design that much. And I think there is a large selection of better sword users to include. He could be a great ham, I suppose. Just like Falcon. So he might be fun to have in the game. But then again, it seems Black Shadow would be just as big of a ham, if not more. And I'm biased a bit because I'm one of those Ganon fans - and Black Shadow getting in would practically guarantee a true Ganondorf move set.

Lucas prediction: 74%
People have been mentioning Lucas, Ike, Lucario and Toon Link in the same breath this whole time. I find it hard to believe he will be rated way higher than them (much less higher than Jigglypuff).

Nominations:
5x Mike Jones

Captain falcon confirmed as MK8 racer!

That's...

Actually a really good idea.

 

[Glaciacott]

Goroh
Chances: 9%
I would have rated him so much higher, but then considering the state of F-Zero, it's just ... well, sad. It already had been years since the last F-Zero back when Brawl came out, and now it's even worse and there doesn't seem to be interest in bringing the series back. So as things are right now, I only see Captain Falcon returning, and that's mostly thanks to the sheer fame of his "FALCON PUNCH!" and how synonymous it is with Smash.

Want: 40% Not one of my most wanted characters, but I certainly see the appeal in having him in the roster. I was among those disappointed when he was revealed as the first AT.

Lucas
Prediction: 89.25%
He should be 95-100%, but I have low expectations from people and imagine some will actually want him or expect him to be gone.

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[Gam3rALO]

Goroh

Chance: 15%

Want: 66%
He is pretty cool.

Prediction for Lucas: 89.51%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Chance 15%: Honestly F zero is not going to get another rep, and if it does there is a 50 50 chance between him and black shadow
Want 2%: I would hate to have him in
Lucas 85%

Nominations
Bomberman x5

 

[Groose]

Samurai Goroh's Chances: 20%
He's always been a more prominent character in F-Zero. True, Shadow is more of an antagonist and was critical in the anime... but Goroh has seniority on his side. If we do get a new F-Zero character, I'm fairly certain we'll get Goroh.

Unfortunately, the longer it takes for Falcon to be revealed makes this chance percentage drop lower and lower. I have a feeling that they would show Falcon early if we were getting another rep from his series.

Samurai Goroh Want: 70%
Honestly, it would be higher if he weren't another sworduser with a limited movepool. Goroh is just one of those character that is plain cool and he really could use another appearance. I love F-Zero and think that two characters would work well for the franchise. Besides, Goroh compliments Wario perfectly.

Lucas Prediction: 82.43%
He'll probably manage to surpass Pokemon Trainer and Ike... but not by much.

Professor Layton x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Unfortunately, the longer it takes for Falcon to be revealed makes this chance percentage drop lower and lower. I have a feeling that they would show Falcon early if we were getting another rep from his series.

They could possibly be planning on revealing Falcon and Goroh on the same day

 

[Groose]

But F-Zero is dead.

the fact that F-Zero is pretty much dead.

As F-Zero is kind of a dying (if not dead) series

Unfortunately, F-Zero is dying

F-Zero is dead.

Lets be honest here; F-Zero is dying.

I'm a huge F-Zero fan, but that doesn't change the obvious: F-Zero is dead.

considering the state of F-Zero, it's just ... well, sad.

MY...MY CHILDHOOD! THIS... THIS... UGGGHHHHH!​

 

[XenothiumX]

I think the correct term for F-Zero is dormant. If F-Zero was truly dead then there would be no hope for a new game.

 

[Groose]

Samurai Goroh (F-Zero)
16.92% chance
38.44% want

Apparently, F-Zero is dying. Or it may already be dead. Most of you think that Samurai Goroh's chances die alongside it. You're actually pretty OK with this---he wouldn't bring a whole lot to the table, anyway... he's a cool sword user, but a sword user nonetheless. And did I mention F-Zero is dying?

Today we have a character from... a dead series. He is Lucas, and he is the main protagonist of Mother 3. Will the death of his own series and his "clone tendencies" force him to bow out? Or will he return as strong as ever? Please rate Lucas' chance and want today.

Tomorrow we have a character from a series that has recently been given new life. He/She is the Avatar from Fire Emblem: Awakening. You may know him/her as Robin or even as the Tactician. Please predict how Robin will fare in tomorrow's game. It's been a while since we've rated a Fire Emblem character, eh?

I can also announce that Mii has once again been added to the nominations list. I don't expect this will be met with much fanfare, though.

EDIT: Sorry guys, I dun goofed. I forgot to mention that XenothiumX and DukeofShorts win the nominations today.

 

[Salty the SLUG]

Lucas
Want: 75%
Chances: 90%
I don't see him going anywhere. However, a "de-clone-ization" (yey words!) would make his return all the sweeter.

Robin
Prediction: 15%


Nomination:
Skull Kid 5X

Oh and Groose, every time you end a "vote-day" this plays in my head:

 

[Groose]

Oh and Groose, every time you end a "vote-day" this plays in my head:

Personally, I hear the Game Over medley from Zelda 2. But Kakariko Village is indeed fitting.

 

[MargnetMan23]

95% he isn't going any where
Want: 70% he shouldn't leave but I can't say I'm a huge fan
Robin prediction: 31.4%

G&W x4 Omastar x1

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Lucas chance=70%

Lucas want=0%

He has a bunch of the same moves as Ness(Idc if they have different ranges/hit-boxes/etc, they look the same). If we're going to have two creepy-looking psychic kids in smash, at least make them play more differently.

Robin prediction=16%

Nomination=5xSkull Kid

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ladies and Gentlemen; start your pitchforks and torches:

Lucas
Chance: 90%
Lucas is popular, and people want him to stay. If this means Mother gets more promotion in the west I guess that's good.

However...

Want: 10%
Honestly if I was gonna cut anyone from Brawl, it'd be Lucas.
Not because he's 'a clone'(he's not). He's Japan only, in a series with only three games(Even F-Zero the dead deadily dead series has had more games) and unlike with Fire Emblem, it's not an ongoing series or at least doesn't seem to be, so even if it promoted interest in Mother the only way we'd get to play officially is if they release all three games on the Virtual Console. They've done Earthbound I hear, and that's awesome, but that only means Ness is required to rep the franchise all over the world.
I'm NOT saying I don't want any Earthbound/Mother rep, just not from a game that is being constantly hoisted out of my reach. Without ROMs I mean. It just seems mean. At least Roy and Marth had the common decency to come to the UK.

Robin eh?
Could be interesting, but more people seem to want Chrommo. I'll go with 20% again because customizable appearance, gender, and competition with other Awakening characters(of which there seems to be at least six real contenders).

Nominations:Roy X 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lucas:

Likelihood: 50% - If there's gonna be a couple of cuts, which Sakurai has said that we should expect, then Lucas is really on the edge. He's such an easy cut, not only because he has similar specials to Ness, but because he's Japan-only, by far the majority of people haven't had a relation to the character outside of Smash Bros. Still, he's not the guy who has the biggest chance of getting cut, and he's very important to the Mother series obviously.

Want: 90% - The guy already had so much **** thrown at him in Mother 3, at least have one good thing happen to him I prefer Ness a lot over him though, both in the Mother series and in Smash Bros, so I hardly ever use Lucas, but being a Mother fan I still really want him to return.

Robin Prediction: 6% - Too many random FE characters, though I'm glad it's been some time ago.

Nominations:
5x Sonic

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Lucas: 90%
Want: 100%
Robin: 15%
Nominate:
Roy x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Lucas's chances: 85%
Want: 80%

Robin prediction: 11%

Falco x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Lucas
Chance 90%: He is not as much of a clone as people say, and the three characters closest to bing cut are toon link, lucario, and Ike, and i dont see more than three getting cut.
Want 90%: Hes a pretty cool guy.

Robin 8%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Opossum]

Lucas time!

Want: 100%
He's a veteran, and I'd rather not have cuts.

Likelihood: 98%

Sakurai's never cut a starting character, and there's no viable replacement for Lucas, so why would he cut him? He and Ness are fine as is. Maybe just give him PK Love as a Final Smash, though.

Predicting a 19.89% for Robin.

Nominating Falco x5

 

[Seraphim.]

Lucas

Chance 95%: I don't really see why he's called a clone, he shares 4 moves with Ness (5 if you count the FS) but they both actually play a lot differently, and the moves they share have different effects as well.

Want: 95%

Robin: 11%

Roy x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Lucas chance - 60%

In terms of characters to be cut, Lucas is definitely up there, although it's my personal opinion that out of Ike, Lucario, Toon Link and snake....Lucas would be the last to be cut. So he still has a really fair chance.

Want - 70%

I like the earthbound series, although I prefer ness to lucas.

Robin prediction - 35%

I think there's potential for an upset and depending on how sakurai looks at it we could get robin instead of Chrom.

Nominations:
Chibi robo x1
Isaac x1
Shulk x3

 

[Starcutter]

lucas 95% he's been through a lot, cutting him would be devastating to him. (also wouldn't want to be nintendo if that happened...)
want: 89%

Robin: 9.7% Don't think too many people want batman's partner over him

nominations
kamek x5

 

[Deleted member]

Oh wow. I just realized that we can re-nominate Owain tomorrow.

Lucas
Chance: 95%
EarthBound/Mother surprisingly got 2 representatives despite the series low sales. However, the EarthBound series has a VERY big following; there is an entire community that is dedicated to this series. There have been numerous upon numerous petitions to localize the game to the US and it even has a fan translation. Lucas has pretty much earned a spot on the roster in my book. Cutting Lucas will definitely disappoint fans and he is probably not going to get as much priority in this game, but I think that he is very safe regardless. So, I think Lucas is coming back but I don't think he will get tons of priority in this game. I just hope that they can rework his moveset to use PK Ground and have PK Love Omega be his Final Smash.
Want: 70%
I feel bad for this kid and what happened to him in Mother 3. I really do. However, I wasn't that fond of Lucas to be honest. While I don't want to see cuts, if I had to choose between Ness or Lucas to appear in SSB4, I would choose Ness. I like Ness more as a character.
Robin Prediction: 13.6%
I can't say much here. I bet he won't get higher scores than Chrom.
Nominations: Sonic 5x

 

[BluePikmin11]

Just getting rid of Lucas is not right and would take away Mother's best representation.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Lucas - 80%, to be revised if Mother 3 gets localized.

predict My Unit - 9%

Ryu x3, Ghirahim x2

 

[NickerBocker]

Groose, who won the nominations? I dont know if you mentioned it or not. Anyways...

Lucas
chance: 80%
No cuts so far, but if they do cut some characters, I think hes one of the first to go. He was only the main character in one game in which the series is done.

Want: 70%
Although I do like him, and hes one of my favorite characters from brawl (dat up-smash) I want to makr way for unique movesets and characters. Bottom line is he is a semi clone, and sakurai is going for uniqueness. I wont be upset if hes there or if hes gone.

Robin: 8.4%
People are gonna say chrom, lucina, insert FE character here.

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[SpaceJell0]

Lucas Chance: 90% He's NOT a clone, and he's loved among Mother fans probably even more than Ness is.

Lucas Want: 100% Please come back Lucas ;_;

Robin: 10% Well by the looks of it he/she's an avatar so he/she might not be iconic enough

Nominations: x5 Chibi-Robo

 

[SpaceJell0]

Just getting rid of Lucas is not right and would take away Mother's best representation.

^This!!!

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Lucas:

Chance: 100%
No cuts, and mother 3 is loved by both mother fans, and Sakurai. Plus, remember the 3DS version; mother 3 will have the 3DS stage, earthbound on Wii U... I can't see it without the characters to go with them.

Want: 100%
Mother 3 is my favourite in the series, and Lucas should be (and I believe is) a lock.
That said, a touch more differentiation from Ness would be nice though; they're already very different to play, but I would like to see PK Wall implemented in some way, a melee counter in place of the PK Magnet's projectile absorbing would be a nice further separation of the characters.


Robin: 12%
Not really a character in a game (and franchise) that has great and memorable main characters. I think they'd be interesting to play, but I think there are more likely, and preferred FE:A reps.


Slime *5
(looks like it's gooing to be one week 'till slime's vote; don't think I'll be able to U-Slurp Genesect in time)

 

[Gam3rALO]

Lucas

Chance: 99%
This isnt debatable, he is staying.

Want: 88%
I admit i havent ever liked lucas. They should work on a diffrent moveset for him and that would good.

Prediction for Robin: 14%
Sadly people will over rate the character.

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Lucas chance: 88%
If there is any cuts I see other characters being cut before him.

Lucas want: 100%
Mother 3 is just too ridiculous/awesome/sad/hilarious of a game to be cut out.

Robin: 9.99%
I seriously wholeheartedly doubt (s)he'll make it



O, I actually won

Anthony Higgs x10

 

[Pikachu ftw]

Lucas Chance 90%
He's probably staying everyone loves him

Lucas want 99%
I love Mother 3 so much

Nominations Rundas x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Lucas
Likelihood: 66.67%
Hmmm... is it worth bringing back this character? You might say it's worth bringing everybody back until you see how hard it is to do so. There is a noticeable difference between him and Ness, but I just don't think he brings much to smash and that's why I thnk he's expendable especially when there are constraints to consider. I can see Lucas being held at a lower priority to make way for more newcomers, but the question is "how low?". I do think Mother deserves two reps, but I would be willing to settle for just one.

Want: 50% (indifferent)
I haven't really had any memorable experiences with this character outside of smash because his game was never imported from Japan and that's why I just can't make a bonding connection that makes me care about this character.

Robin
Prediction: 18%

Nominations:
Dixie Kong x10
Yay! I won for once... In that case I'll add another x5 to Dixie Kong

 

[Groose]

Oh wow. I just realized that we can re-nominate Owain tomorrow.

Bloody hell. I... Yeah... Erm... Expect an announcement tomorrow.

Groose, who won the nominations? I dont know if you mentioned it or not. Anyways...

Sorry guys, I dun goofed. I forgot to mention that XenothiumX and DukeofShorts win the nominations today.

 

[Erimir]

Lucas

Popularity: He's pretty popular, even though he never got a US/European release. Which Nintendo really needs to do something about.

Relevancy: He's the lead of a Mother game. But that series is dead. And Nintendo treats it like crap (how did it take 6 years for Earthbound to get on the VC even though it was one of the most requested from the beginning?)

Design: He's a semi-clone of Ness. The B moves work very similarly and they have similar jumps, but otherwise he's quite different. He does has some potential moves they could give him if they wanted to make him more unique.

Roster and Competition: Well, I don't think Mother is getting another rep. They might even lose a rep. Sakurai wasn't even sure whether Earthbound deserved two reps. And Sakurai considered cuttting Ness for Lucas in the past. I think Ness is much more likely to stay at this point because he was in the past 3 Smash Bros and Earthbound has had a worldwide release. The Masked Man is not going to take his spot, despite what some people think.

Sakurai: Has said they don't have plans to cut any characters yet.

Lucas chances: 88%
Lucas doesn't have a (real) competitor ready to take his place, so he's only getting cut if Earthbound loses slots. If Sakurai doesn't like the fact that he's a clone, he has options from the Earthbound games to make them more different from each other. Still, if there are a few cuts, Lucas is in real danger.

Lucas want: 65%
I haven't played Mother 3 (yet) so I don't have a big attachment to him as a character. But I like Earthbound, and Lucas is one of my favorite Brawl characters to play as.

Robin prediction: 5%
Avatar? So like, the most generic Fire Emblem character out there? Why would Sakurai pick the one that doesn't even have a personality? Robin's Fire Emblem competition will crush his/her chances.

Nominations:
5x Mike Jones

I have a feeling that they would show Falcon early if we were getting another rep from his series.

I think it should still be considered really early. We've only gotten two characters since E3, and there are presumably at least another 20. There's still a lot to reveal, and presumably at least another 9 months to go (I would be truly shocked if Smash Bros came out before Mario Kart 8).

I guess we don't know whether hidden (1st party) characters will be revealed this time either. Luigi being revealed kinda suggests that we might. Then again, they could decide to make him a starter for once...

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Lucas
Chances: 85% I don't know what would be a bigger tragedy for the poor guy. Being left out, or being forced to come back to a game called Super Smash BROTHERS. Considering that's a bit of a... Sore subject for him.

Want: 100% Mother is an awesome series, and there's really no one who could replace Lucas. I really don't want it to have only one rep.

Robin prediction: 14% I feel like Robin could cause an upset for Chrom, but a lot of people are going to assume s/he's just a generic player insert with no lines and no plot relevance, like FE7's Tactician, so s/he'll get a low score.

Nominate Porky x3, Mona (WarioWare) x2

 

[BlitznBurst]

Lucas chances: 890%. I don't think any veterans have high chances of being cut, most Lucas is probably one of the most likely.
Want: 80%. Only if he gets a unique moveset

Avatar prediction: 60%.

Skull Kid X5

 

[ToothiestAura]

Lucas:

Chances: 75%
I can't see him being cut due to his similarities with Ness. Not even just his moves. Just how similar they look - once Ness is rendered it wouldn't be much work to make Lucas too. Hopefully he'll show up with some moveset changes.

Want: 60%
He was at least not a full clone, so I like him a bit in Brawl. Would like to see him stay, but wouldn't be too broken up if he did not.

 

[Primid]

LUCAS

Likelihood: 87% I don't see him leaving. Even if he left, Sakurai would have to replace him with another Mother character. Lucas is the only obvious choice for the second rep since he's the protagonist of the third game.

Want: 100% Lucas is cool and I think Mother 3 deserves him as the game's rep. He's also not an exact clone of Ness like a lot of people say he is. They each play differently and both are deserving characters.

Nominations:
Porky x3
Rayman x2