Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog)
2.54% chance (Knuckles: 0.90%) (Klonoa: 1.66%) (Lloyd: 4.00%)
31.67% want (Knuckles: 27.34%) (Klonoa: 29.66%) (Lloyd: 28.34%)

Tails' tails didn't really help him fly in your eyes; his status as a Sonic character shot him in the foot. He did beat Knuckles in chance and want, however, and quite convincingly so in chance. I've tossed up comparisons with Lloyd and Klonoa above; earlier we ruled that Pac-Man is considered probable, so they're in a similar boat to Tails.

Ah, Sundays. I'm aware not all of you are from America, or specifically from Philly, so I'll let you in on a little secret: Sunday is all about football. Why don't I update on Sunday? Football is partially to blame. So, I find it perfectly ironic that we're rating Travis Touchdown on a Sunday. Heh. Please rate Travis Touchdown in chance and want today.

Tomorrow we're rating a third third-party character in a row, Goemon. I had to do some research on this guy. H'es the protagonist of his own series, which has been around for a very long time; he's had games all the way from the NES era up to a DS game that launched not quite a decade ago. Some of his games have been Japan-only, but his games do have a pretty solid, if niche, audience. He's owned by Konami, which also owns Snake, Bomberman, and Simon Belmont. That's all you need to know, I guess. Please predict how Goemon will do in tomorrow's competition. Kooloo Limpah! I win the extra nominations today, so it looks like we'll be rating Tingle very, very soon.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Travis Touchdown chance: 1.4%
Travis Touchdown want: 2% I don't really play games like these. So I have lack of interest of Touchdown here.
Goemon prediction: 1.63%
Nominations:
x5 Prince Sable

 

[Morbi]

Travis Touchdown Chance: 1%

3rd party character.

Travis Touchdown Want: 50%

He is a pretty cool character.

Goemon Prediction: 1%

 

[Chandeelure]

-T.T
Chances:0%
Want:0%
-Goemon:0%
-Nomination:Spear User X5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Touchdown! (along with katanas and a lot of blood) - 1.55%
he's from an m rated game, one that has a lot of blood, cursing, strong environments, and a lot of things that are considered bad for Nintendo's average games, but I do give him two points, one he is a Nintendo character, only (correct me if i'm wrong) appearing on Nintendo consoles, and two is that his creator has said from himself, that he wants him in smash bros, though there is no evidence that he is pushing for it though . . .
want - 55%
I will admit this, I actually do kinda like the idea of him in smash, just not over most other characters characters
Goemon - 1.95%
I honestly have no idea what he'll come out on
Nominations:
Dark pitX1
RoyX4

 

[jaytalks]

Tails Chance: 10%
Some of you may say that a third-party company could never have two characters. To that, I say...

Add some music while you read my argument.​

It's a major licensing issue when third-parties are introduced, right? Nintendo has to not only work out a deal with a third-party character that may or may not involve some exchange of money, but they also have to keep said third-party informed so that they are satisfied with the use of their character. Every company they have to talk to just increases the hassle.​

HOWEVER! It would be easier for Nintendo to get a second character from one third-party company than to get one each from two different companies. Why? They must already be in the process of negotiations; if they really wanted to, it wouldn't be overly difficult to acquire the licence for TWO characters. Now, Capcom and Namco don't have two characters to offer; SEGA does in Tails. He's probably more iconic than any Nintendo character not in the game, and he is still in use today; SEGA could always use the advertising for him. Additionally, the Sonic fanbase, curse their immaturity, is very vocal; Tails would definitely have an audience.​

Tails is not only the obvious second Sonic choice (Robotnik is awkward when it comes to fighting and would make a better boss; Knuckles and the other pals just don't have the recurrence and importance), but the obvious second SEGA choice. Who are you going to add in over him? AiAi or Amigo? They're not legendary--Tails is. I personally doubt we'll see two of any third-party company just because third-party slots are limited as a whole, but Tails is definitely among the most likely third-parties left... even more likely than the one we're rating tomorrow.​

It's not a licensing issue. That's why these characters could potentially be Assist Trophies. And iconicness to gaming doesn't matter, as its more important that the character is a Nintendo All Star, since this is a celebration of Nintendo not gaming. So Tails being more iconic that unrepresented series has nothing to do with his chances. Third Party's have a separate criteria. Sakurai hasn't outright said it, but it appears they need to be a "special case." From my reading it's more about the individual's character popularity and iconicness in gaming. Tails is fairly outranked in those categories to his potential third party cast members Snake, Mega Man, and Sonic. That is who he should be compared to.

Also, you are looking at from the wrong perspective. Sakurai is not looking for third party characters to add to meet some type of quota. He is looking for third party characters to add, and there are only a few that meet his criteria. And he would rather limit the third party characters in the game.

Everybody who wants Tails in the game will already make the economic decision to buy the game. There is no singles Tails fan out there that will buy the game for Tails and not buy the game for Sonic. There is no additive fanbase that comes from adding Tails in the game.

Having multiple characters from a Non-Nintendo franchise would also dilute the purpose of the game. Which is why third party characters are kept at the minimum. The one character per third party concept that many RTCers apply comes from this. Having multiple characters from one company (or even one franchise) would give that company more representation than the other third party characters. It would be showing more perceived favoritism to the company in question.

However, if I did give Tails any chance, I would say he does have a better chance that Travis Touchdown. But that's not a reflection on Tail's chances. That's a reflection of Travis's.

Edit:
Adding Travie Touchdown rating.

Travis Touchdown:
Chances: 0%
With third party characters, it comes down to this for me. Is he/she iconic to gaming? Would he/she qualify as a special case, due to their intangibles. No to both.

Want:1%
I have the original No More Heroes, but he doesn't fit into Smash for me.

Goemon's Chances: 1.52%

Nominations:
Micaiah x 5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

TOUCHDOWN: 1%
Want: 100%
Goemon: 1%

 

[Deleted member]

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 1%
He is a third party character with only 2 games in his series and they were pretty popular games on the Wii. I am not going to say that he is improbable due to the fact that he comes from a game filled with a ton of blood, sexuality, and swears (yeah, the game is rated M, but Snake got in Smash), but I can't see him happening. While Suda 51 has commented that he wants to see Travis in SSB4, I think that he has some problems that are holding him back. There isn't any noise for him to appear in Smash Bros. Yeah, the creator said that he wants to see him in Smash, but a lot of video game creators want to see their character in Smash; I saw a video where I heard Team Meat was bribing Nintendo to put Meat Boy in Smash Bros. and they will make a game for the Wii U. So, just saying you want your character to get in doesn't mean they will get in. Sakurai mentioned that third party characters are "special cases" that are in "leagues of their own." I know that I mention this over and over again, but I can't put Travis on the same level as Sonic and Mega Man. I can with Bomberman, Simon, and Pac-Man, but not Travis.
Want: 25%
Sparks some interest, but I am not completely invested.

Travis Touchdown has been added to this post.

Goemon Prediction: .29%
Well this is a pretty obscure character that we're rating on.

Nominations: Decloned Ganondorf 5x

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Travis Touchdown
Chance: 5% because Suda 51 have put interest in adding Travis in Smash, he is one of the unique characters in the Wii era where almost exclusive at least his video games began in that system, for the people that say he has not legendary status at least his own video games have three main releases not even Bayonetta or even at least main third exclusive characters can say that and even more in the main home console market that is suppose to be the big one, for the mature stuff like language and blood they can tone it down like they did in Japan so is not a big deal, and even if you complain about the moveset Travis has a "Luchador Libre" free style mixed with "Bushido" and "Jedi" moves that is so awesome that he can get a lot of gameplay variety.
Want: 100% he would be my main with Ridley and Mega Man, I love the character and if you have not play any of his games I should say that at least play one, try and see what makes him apart of the mainstream "Heroes" of video games, I consider Suda 51 one of the first Directors and Producers to set a part from the main Industry of video games like in the movies (Scorsese, Tarantino, Rodriguez, Almodovar, Cameron, Burton and many more) and No More Heroes 1 is his "Master Piece" close to the first one should be Killer 7, him and Platinum Games Directors are masters that I consider what they do "Art" with many Nintendo games.

Prediction
Goemon: .50% to much competition from his company.

Nomination
Harry x 5

PD. sorry for my bad grammar today, I´m drunk and only want to write my prediction for my top favorite video game character.

.n_n.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Touchdown: 0.2%
Want: 0%

Goemon: 0.23%

x5 Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario

 

[Starcutter]

that gif is great when the page is loading. it's all slow and amazing.


Touchdown: 0.3 NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.
Want: N. O. P. E. 0%

Goemon: who? lol jk I think it's that digimon guy. 0.33%

x5 eevee

(btw I have more than one nope link)

 

[PK_Wonder]

Travis: 5%
predict: 1.2%

Ryu de Street Fighter x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Travis Touchdown:
Likelihood: 0%
Even within the 3rd parties, he has lots of competition. Pac-Man, Bomberman, Snake all seem better and more iconic choices than him.

Want: 0%
Haven't played the game.

Goemon prediction: 1%

Tails x 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Day 112? It's called being fashionably late, ****face!

Chance: 0%
If my post intro didn't make it clear he has a foul mouth, add his violence and sexuality and mix in a little Sakurai mentioning that it's too much for smash bros. and you get 0 chance... if he kept getting games exclusive to nintendo they may have to pay him the attention eventually though... I know a 3 is coming, so I'm gonna put a ? at smash 5/4-extend, much like the Villager decision change (for non-violence, in stark contrast). I hope to see more No More Heroes games, so this discussion can continue next installment.

Want: 100%
I really want to see more No More Heroes games so we can continue this discussion!


Goemon: 0.85%
A lot of people saying 'who?'


Slime*5
(Goo many third parties ooze not going to get in, let's at least vote on a big one!)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Travis motherf*cking Touchdown
Entering the garden of madness: 1%
Travis Touchdown is a sweary, perverted otaku who one day decided to become an assassin because...he had a beam katana, and beam katana's are cool. We've already got Mii's representing the userbase, why do we need Travis?

The real reasons Travis can't appear is that unlike Snake his entire personality is 18+. He gleefully slices opponents up, he swears like a sailor, he has to do a hand shandy in order to get his beam sword from a limp low power to a fully erect powerful blade that can conquer everyone and he's pretty dang perverted.
He's not all bad though; he loves his kitten, is very driven and refuses to assassinate women and children and overall is pretty honourable. He's more an anti-hero than a villain protagonist anyway although he is probably one of the most interesting characters from a moralistic viewpoint.

Problem is if Travis got in, they'd have to tone him down and remove the parts that made Travis, such a unique and entertaining character. Sure he has a few abilities they could use that would work in Smash, especially for his Final Smash options and grapples(Travis loves Mexican Wrestling too) but Travis wouldn't FEEL like Travis if he had to tone down his entire personality to fit in.

Strawberry on the shortcake: 50%
I'm a big fan of the No More Hero games, both being in my top 10 personal Wii picks, and for a while there Travis was the only 3rd Party I'd consider worthy being a (at the time) Wii exclusive 3rd Party character. However over time I've been worried about his inclusion meaning Travis himself would have to be toned down, not only with his violence(which is understandable) and swearing(likewise) but his entire personality which is something I would not want.

If they managed to pull him off well though, Travis would easily become one of my favourite characters in Smash and would quickly become the only swords user I'd want. Plus he can turn into a freaking tiger and that's just cool.

Goemon: 1%
I know of him, but if he has to compete with the far more deserving Snake, Bomberman and Simon Belmont...well he's just plain ol' unlikely.

Nominations:
Mario series newcomer X 5

 

[DarkKry4]

Travis Touchdown

Chance - 0%

Want - 0%

Goemon - 1%

x5 Tiny Kong

 

[Sid-cada]

Travis Touchdown

Chance - 0.03% - Very minuscule chances. He has the interest of the creator wanting him in, but I don't think he's actually pushing. He also certainly not a legendary third-party, which does not do him any favors.

Want - 17% - Not the worst character ever, but still fairly bad. The Beam Katana is essentially just a fancy sword, and I don't see a unique sword style for him. I'm absolutely certain that his character would have to be butchered in order to fit him down to an acceptable rating as well.


Goemon Prediction- 0.17% - Barely beaten by Cole. Still, there's one more character that should do worse than this on the list...

Nominations
Hades X3
Dark Matter X2

 

[Louie G.]

TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN:

Chance: 2%
Now I've heard a lot of people say "Hey, since the creator of No More Heroes said that he would LIKE TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN TO BE IN SMASH, he's going to push for it like what happened with Snake!" Well Snake was a very special case: Sakurai and Kojima are best buds, so a little favor by adding one of the biggest gaming icons there is into Smash shouldn't have been a problem. As for Travis, he is LEAGUES behind most 3rd Party candidates: Snake (again), Pac-Man, Slime, Bomberman, even just about every Sonic character you could think of. So tell me again: Why does the sex-obsessed bad-mouthing star of a niche 3rd Party M-rated series deserve even a MENTION just because his creator wants him in?

Edit: I'm sure the creator of Bubsy the Bobcat wants him in Smash, but it ain't gonna happen.

Want: 0%
Please, keep him away from my precious Smash Bros.

Goemon Prediction: .5%
I suppose Goemon is in the same boat as Travis: Small 3rd party franchise.

Noms: You should really know by now.

 

[NickerBocker]

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 0.01%
Want: 30%

Small, niche franchise with included maximum violence will probably not even be mentioned in smash.

Goemon: 0.9%

Nominations:
DLC characters x5

 

[Gunla]

I skipped yesterday.

Travis FOOTBALL!

Pros:
+Nintendo Exclusive (PS3 Rerelease is ignored here)
+Pretty Awesome design and moveset originality. Them katanas!
Cons:
-Not that popular.
-Vulgarity and manner would have to be toned down. Seriously.
-3rd Party can be a curse, ya know.
Overall- Unlike Snake, who's a character from a mature series (mostly) as well, Snake has Kojima and being more well known on his side. 1.2%

Want: I love No More Heroes. It's a nice niche franchise. But I'd rather give that slot to someone else. 42.2%.

Mystical Ninja, complete with awful Game Boy Game, Goemon:
I'm predicting a 1.3%- Nintendo 3rd Party character that became so obscure.

Nominations- I'm, as usual, nominating Extensive Alternate Costumes X5.

 

[Smasher 101]

Travis Touchdown's chances: 0.5%
Want: 0%

Goemon prediction: 0.1%

Prince Sable x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Travis touchdown:
Chance: 0.5% - Has WAY too much competition, and comes from such a violent game. Snake's Konami, so that alone gave him an edge over other violent characters.

Want: 25% - Seems ok.

Goemon: 3%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: .5%
Want: 50%

Goemon: 1.05%

Wrestler x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Time to keep it simple

T-Touchdown
Chance- 0%
Not a chance.

Want - 0%
Not a care

Prediction
Ganbare Goemon - 1.73%
Not a clue

Noms
x5 Blaziken

 

[colder_than_ice]

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 0% - He'd be completely out of place in a game that features an adorable electric mouse, a fighting pink princess, a gorilla with a bow tie, and an aerobic teaching mannequin.
Want: 0% - HE'S NOT WELCOME HERE!!!!

Goemon prediction: 1.2%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Travis Touchdown - 0%

3rd party with way too much competition.

Want 0%

Haven't played the game.

x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Starbound]

Double zeroes again (0% chance, 0% want) as he's nowhere near a legendary character.

uhh...who can I think of that can lose to Chancellor Cole...

x5 TOADSWORTH please

 

[Erimir]

Travis Touchdown

Ubisoft 3rd party that was originally exclusive to Wii. Good thing the Rayman Legends thing happened late in the development cycle. But still, the relationship between Nintendo and Ubisoft is probably a little strained right now. At any rate, he's not really that iconic.

TT chances: 0.1%

TT want: 5%
Don't really want him.

Goemon prediction: 0.5%
Konami characters don't seem very likely, and Goemon in particular...

Nominations:
Pichu x5

 

[loganhogan]

Travis
Chance 1%
Want 0% I don't like him.


x2 Tiny Kong
x3 King Boo

 

[McDuckletts]

Travis Sportsball
Chance: 0.2%
I could pretty much copy-paste what Louie G. said, because that sums up what I think of Travis.
Want: 70%
No More Heroes is a rather niche game, but I loved it a ton, so Travis would be a pretty dang sweet character for me to see in Smash.

Goemon prediction: 0.3%
Who? :/

Nom: B-K X5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN

Chance: 0% - Nope.

Want: 0% - Nuh-uhh.

Goemon Prediction: 0.9% - Not likely.

Nominations:
Nintendog x5

 

[Groose]

Travis Touchdown: 5%
His creators did say they would like to see him; it is possible they tried to to contact Nintendo. Still, I'm not really convinced at all that Nintendo would jump on the idea. For one, he's on the fringe of being truly "legendary;" I'd say he's more "cult," to be completely honest. Additionally, although Snake does set the precedent for including mature characters, he's still slightly at odds with most of the intended fanbase. I'd say the majority of Smash fans have never heard of him, whereas everyone knows Sonic/Mega Man/Pac-Man and most have heard of Rayman/Layton. All in all, I certainly con't discount this guy entirely, but I'm still saying he's doubtful.

Touchdown Want: 20%
I'm a bit conflicted here. I've never played the games, but I understand he's an awesome character. I don't really think he deserves to make the cut, and there are other third parties I'd like to see. I'd say I'll put him at 20%: I'd be slightly disappointed to see him.

Tingle x10

Goemon Prediction: .87
This is an example of a character who should (in my opinion) get obliterated by even the likes of Chancellor Cole. Sadly, people who don't know who he is will walk in and give him the "eh 1%", and he'll actually do pretty well compared to your Clouds and Wrights and Coles. A little bit of knowledge may actually hurt a character, eh?

DAY OVER​

​

GROOSE IS BACK ​

 

[Groose]

Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)
0.92% chance
24.74% want

Less likely than Groose? Check. Less wanted than Tingle? Check. Welp, it looks like Touchdown will be lucky to settle for a field goal.

Today we're rating Goemon. He's a Konami character from a series that has some impressive longevity (the first game was on the NES, the most recent the DS). Does Goemon have what it takes to join the Smash? Please rate Goemon in chance and want today.

Well, that's all for me for today...

HADES: NOW WAIT JUST A SECOND! ​

Oh dear. Yeah. Forgot about that guy.​

​

HADES: Now is when we look to the future, and the future is me... a playable character in Smash. Next to me, Ridley is going to look like a sweet, cuddly bunny!​

Ummm... right. So... please predict how Hades will fare in tomorrow's competition. Toxicroaker wins the extra noms today.​

 

[BluePikmin11]

Goemon chance: 3%
Goemon Want: 10% Very unfamilar with the series.
Hades Prediction: 8.9% I expect people to say that only Palutena will make it or KI does not need a 3rd character.
Nominations:
x5 Prince Sable

 

[Deleted member]

Goemon
Chance: 0%
Wow… what an obscure choice for a character. I don't think that I need to go into detail too much as:
1. He has competition from other Konami characters like Bomberman, Simon Belmont, and veteran Snake.
2. I don't think that Sakurai would consider him to be a special case who is in a league of his own. It would be odd to see him next to Sonic and Mega Man.
Yup, that's what I think.
Want: 0%
Bomberman

Goemon has been added to this post.

Hades Prediction: 6.66% (yeah, I'm going there)
I rather have Hades much more than Palutena! He is freaking awesome! …Too bad the consensus on this board for another Kid Icarus rep is "Palutena or bust."

Nominations: Decloned Ganondorf 5x

 

[McDuckletts]

Gooeymon
Chance/Want: 0%
I've never played any Mystical Ninja game, and I've only first heard of the franchise like a year ago. Even then, I still know his chances are pretty abysmal.

Hades prediction: 6.43%
He might have a chance. idk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Nom: B-K X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I too would rather have Hades than Palutena..
But the likelier is Palutena, which is probably why the Palutena or bust tends to be a habit.

 

[Sid-cada]

Goemon

Chance - 0% - A second third party from Konami? Even if we ignore my "no second character from the same third party" rule for a moment, Bomberman and Simon Belmont are better choices than this relative nobody.'

Want - 0% - That third party rule goes here too. seriously, we already have several Nintendo Samurai, yet someone suggests another Japanese Swordsman? Shouldn't Nintendo's be prioritized first.


Hades Prediction - 15% - Oh, me, oh, my. Whatever shall I do? We all know that Pretty Professor Palutena is going to gobble his chances up like a turkey dinner, and some scraps are being taken by Ms. "I can't be bothered to talk in a chapter not about me in a game all about dialogue". Ha! While there's nothing to do about that lovely paragon of light, that cuddly bunny had less personality than a sack of rocks, so more points to him.

And yes, I'm totally going to do tomorrow's ratting in Hades' tone of voice. Isn't it obvious? I'll be back with a script. Ciao!

Nominations
Dark Matter X5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Goemon: 0%
Want: 0%
Hades: 5%

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Goemon
Chance: .10% Once again Sakurai should have been completely obliterated and wasted from the preview day and said to his Staff that the game should have a obscure non nintendo character to add the roster.
Want: 5% I should still need to play some of his games and I will do it, for now I want keep out the character from even coming to Smash because I don´t know if has a unique potential moveset.

Prediction
Hades: 7.77% Lucky sevens, lets see if I have luck with them.

Nomination
Harry x 5

.n_n.