Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[LoneKonWolf]

Later today I'll be in to update the day and restore things to full functionality---Schedule, OP, et all! Groose is back, baby!

Huza! lets celebrate!
nice to know your back to normal Groose,

 

[BluePikmin11]

It seems that Nintendog appears twice on the nominations list. o-O
Oh and the Groose is back!

 

[Deleted member]

Wow… what's been going on with SmashBoards lately?

Do you think that there is a Rate Their Chances in Japan? I'm rather curious since I wanna hear their opinions on characters that the west wants but they don't really care for (Little Mac, Ridley), characters that Japan wants but the west just "meh"s over (Starfy, Bandana Dee), and characters that are wanted worldwide (King K. Rool, Mewtwo).

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Wow… what's been going on with SmashBoards lately?

Do you think that there is a Rate Their Chances in Japan? I'm rather curious since I wanna hear their opinions on characters that the west wants but they don't really care for (Little Mac, Ridley), characters that Japan wants but the west just "meh"s over (Starfy, Bandana Dee), and characters that are wanted worldwide (King K. Rool, Mewtwo).

Ikutsu ka no otoko ga Bado o hikidas*hite inai kagiri, watashi wa so wa omowanai​

Edit: the reason why that is blocked out is because it accidentally contains a cuss word, even when it not really noticeable , just combine the two areas that is connected by the star​

 

[Deleted member]

Ikutsu ka no otoko ga Bado o hikida****e inai kagiri, watashi wa so wa omowanai
Edit: the reason why that is blocked out is because it accidentally contains a cuss word, even when it not really noticeable

...
What does that mean? I don't speak Japanese.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

...
What does that mean? I don't speak Japanese.

"unless some guy pulls a groose, I don't think it much"

 

[Groose]

​

It may take me an hour or so to get this day to a halt. I'm trying to figure out exactly what noms I need to count and everything, you know? And I may be distracted by the Harry Potter marathon on ABC. Anywho, enjoy the music above while I work on the day-updating-thing.​

​

​

"unless some guy pulls a groose, I don't think it much"

Actually, I don't know who created the very first RTC game. I remember there was one running in 2007 on Gamefaqs that I played in a bit. The idea definitely ins't mine, and I think it well precedes SSBF and DynasticAnthony as well.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, I've made a very interesting find: there is a game of RTC on NSider that was started on the same day as ours. I knew we had a sister thread on Gamefaqs, but I didn't know we had another on NSider! They're on Day 121 already and their results are... interesting. Chrom at over 90%, K. Rool below Dixie at 50%, Isaac at 80%, Mii at 22.5%. Here's the link: http://nsider2.com/forums/index.php/topic/601357-rate-their-chances-for-ssb4-day-121-asuka/

I'm going to make contact there soon, and maybe get in constant contact with them. Honestly, I just discovered this tonight. They don't do want percentages or have a music section, but they DO calculate chance of making and appearance AND chance of playability. A novel idea, but it's too late for us to think like that. They also seem to have a smaller sample of opinions; I get anywhere between 30 to 60 votes depending on the day; they don't seem to get more than 10, tops.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

​

It may take me an hour or so to get this day to a halt. I'm trying to figure out exactly what noms I need to count and everything, you know? And I may be distracted by the Harry Potter marathon on ABC. Anywho, enjoy the music above while I work on the day-updating-thing.​

​

​

Actually, I don't know who created the very first RTC game. I remember there was one running in 2007 on Gamefaqs that I played in a bit. The idea definitely ins't mine, and I think it well precedes SSBF and DynasticAnthony as well.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, I've made a very interesting find: there is a game of RTC on NSider that was started on the same day as ours. I knew we had a sister thread on Gamefaqs, but I didn't know we had another on NSider! They're on Day 121 already and their results are... interesting. Chrom at over 90%, K. Rool below Dixie at 50%, Isaac at 80%, Mii at 22.5%. Here's the link: http://nsider2.com/forums/index.php/topic/601357-rate-their-chances-for-ssb4-day-121-asuka/

I'm going to make contact there soon, and maybe get in constant contact with them. Honestly, I just discovered this tonight. They don't do want percentages or have a music section, but they DO calculate chance of making and appearance AND chance of playability. A novel idea, but it's too late for us to think like that. They also seem to have a smaller sample of opinions; I get anywhere between 30 to 60 votes depending on the day; they don't seem to get more than 10, tops.

cool, and groose I actually have the nomination list right here, you just want me to pm it to ya mate?

 

[Groose]

cool, and groose I actually have the nomination list right here, you just want me to pm it to ya mate?

:/ I just finished it. Heh. Thanks for the help, but I've got it from now on, pal. Just leave it to me!



And I frigging love your avatar. Just... epic...

Aeron's Chance: 3%
Pandora's Tower isn't the most high-profile game; Aeron is not a very popular request; Sakurai's WTF characters have never been this type of character. I don't think he'll make it, but the game's high quality and brief time in the international spotlight may help it.

Aeron Want: 30%
I like surprises on the roster... but I don't really see too much appeal behind him. He's got a cool design, but I'm not sure as to potential moveset, and I have no idea what his personality et all are.

Yoshi Changes: 20%
Two of fifteen veterans revealed have been "overhauled." That's... not a good sign for this. Still, they have been addressing things where they see fit; Yoshi may very well scream for changes to them. I'm pretty much ruling out a baby and definitely eliminating Yarn, but there's a chance they slap him with two new specials, a tilt, and an aerial that make him different.

Yoshi Changes Want: 30%
He could use some buffs, sure; saying he's in need of an overhaul is a stretch. I like is style as is; it's a lighthearted, fun moveset that represents his games well. I could do with a few new things, but I'd say keep him mostly the same.

Excitebiker Prediction: 3.43%
Everytime I mention how Retros generally do well, they get smashed. Eh. Sakurai ruled him out a while ago, but people will counter with, "BUT he also ruled out Villager" and there will be an argument.

Groose x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

:/ I just finished it. Heh. Thanks for the help, but I've got it from now on, pal. Just leave it to me!



And I frigging love your avatar. Just... epic...

okay mate, glad to know your back, we need to keep the "groose is loose" joke alive
and thanks mate, I just got bored about two days ago, and I just recently played the third ace attorney game, so I just customized my original avatar to mix it with godot, you are now the third person to say that It is awesome
and I'm glad about that

 

[Groose]

DAY OVER

GROOSE IS LOOSE​

​

 

[Groose]

Aeron (Pandora's Tower)
3.44% chance
23.90% want

SHULK SMASH! His fellow Operation Rainfall character was the nail in Aeron's coffin as the star of Pandora's Tower failed to get any momentum going throughout the day. One has to wonder if it's even worth rating Zael (The Last Story), the third and final Operation Rainfall protagonist.

Substantial Yoshi Changes
20.82% chance
50.87% want

Everyone loves Yoshi, but few love him in Smash; his unpopular Egg Throw and Egg Roll attacks have people slightly preferring an overhaul as opposed to remaining the same. Still, it's not overly likely in your eyes. Shame!

Today we're rating the Excitebiker. Although Sakurai once dismissed him because of his difficulty to design and program, a lot has changed in the decade since he made that comment. Could the idea of Excitebiker have developed in this time? Please rate the Excitebiker in chance and want.

Tomorrow we're heading back to the world of Namcoand rating... Klonoa! Please predict how Klonoa will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like the five won today by Jaytalks!


NOTICE: I'm back! Over the next few days, I'll be bringing things up to speed; I will be updating the music section (Toxicroaker once again basically doing it for me), fixing the results section, and introducing Brawler610's new section on the OP. I don't really have time right now, but I'll get to it tomorrow no problem! Thanks to the following guys, really: Lonekonwolf, FalKoopa, Brawler610, Toxicroaker. I'll be giving you guys special mentions in the OP soon.

I'm back, ya goons!​

 

[Morbi]

Excitebiker Chance: 10%

I really don't think anything has changed. Wario's bike doesn't convince me that a full-fledged character would be adequate. I would commend Sakurai if he managed to get it to work.

Excitebiker Want: 0%

It is not worth the effort. He doesn't really offer anything that he couldn't do with an assist trophy in my opinion.

Kloana Prediction: 0.1%

 

[LoneKonWolf]

ah no problem groose, I was just your averagely neighborhood wolf, just assisting where help was needed, now seeing that this place does no longer require my help, I'll the rest to you mate.
any who, my ratings:
Excitebiker - 1.23%
I don't see him having much chances, he has a hard design, and was even refused by sakurai himself, though he's not "completely dead, mainly because of the villager, though that not much, he should not be considered by his chances.
want - 25%
not really, I prefer the time spent on someone else, or on some veterans.
Klonoa - 4.17%
I have no idea, I figure it'll be low I guess.
nominations: Edit: helping Louie out
starfyX3
RoyX1
Dark pitX1

 

[BluePikmin11]

Excitebiker Chance: 12%
Excitebiker Want: 10% Meh I prefer Mach Rider.
Klonoa Prediction: 5.4% Some will say he's better than Pac-Man.
Nominations:
x5 Nintendog

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Excretebricker: 2.5%
The main talent/gimmick of the Excitebikers is their ability to ride bikes at high speeds. It seems to me that unlike Mach Rider, who possesses this talent as well, Excitebikers are unable to bring any other special abilities to Smash Bros., not to mention Sakurai's love for Mach Rider.

Want: 1.5%
I think that Mach Rider is overall a more interesting character.

Klonoa prediction (Now I can nominate other characters! Wahoo!): 1.44%

Nominate:
Quote x5

 

[Deleted member]

Glad to see that my section will be added soon! For now though, Excitebiker has been added to this post. If someone can provide a link to the Rate Their Chances thread for pre-Brawl, I will gladly link that in that post just for reference.

Excitebiker
Chance: 10%
I think that he does have a solid chance. Sakurai recognizes him, almost made him a character in Melee, and made him an Assist Trophy in Brawl. I think that the Villager scenario might help him or be incredibly irrelevant, so I am not going to make that a factor here. When it comes to retro reps though, the most wanted one is by far Takamaru, but even he isn't highly wanted like Little Mac and King K. Rool are. Though, Sakurai can be unpredictable and figure out how to incorporate him in Smash and give him a moveset. So, I won't entirely rule him out and say that this is a very decent score for Excitebiker.
Want: 75%
Not my most wanted retro character or character in general (my most wanted retro being Takamaru). However, Excitebiker would be a rather whacky addition that I wouldn't mind. I would definitely love to see what Sakurai can do with him.

Klonoa Prediction: .23%
Klonoa has to compete with other Namco characters, it would be hard for him to get in over Tekken characters, Soul Calibur characters, and Pac-Man when he is largely unknown.

Nominations: Ninten 5x
Sing a melody of...

EDIT: Oh! Groose! Can you please do me a favor and add this song to Toad's list:
A Banquet With Hisstocrat
It's that super jazzy song from Super Mario 3D World that was played during the October Nintendo Direct.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Excitebiker
Chance 12%
I'd say his chances are about as good as any other retro character. But I'd put him just a bit higher for 2 reasons.

1. Sakurai actually considered him. Which is saying a lot since he went back to the Villager after considering him in Brawl, so who knows what other ideas he'll fall back on.
2. The promotion of Excitebike on the 3DS, as well as the somewhat recent release of the spiritual successor Excite Truck on the Wii, which gives him at least some new found relevancy.

Not to mention how much more iconic the Excitebiker is when compared to other retro characters.

Want 100%
It just feels so right; a bike riding character in Smash. Sure, we could have Mach Rider, but Excitebiker's look and structure just seems more fitting, ya know?

Klonoa prediction 4.2%

Nomination
Matthew x5

 

[Gunla]

Welcome back to the stage of history, Groose!

BIKES BIKES BIKES!

Pros
+Well Known
+Was an AT in Brawl
Cons
-Generic. Seriously?
-Mach Rider is a better biker, more of an original character.
Overall... Generic Bikers are not likely going to be reps. Giving 2%.

Want:

I think you can express this into a % very easily.

Klonoa The Cake

I'm prediciting a .4%- Small fanbase, not Pac-Man. That's all.

Nominating...
Extensive Alternate Costumes X5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Excitebiker:
Chance:10%
Want:15%

-Klonoa:0%

-Nomination: Concept Spear User x5

 

[jaytalks]

I'm excited to rate excitebiker!
chances: 1%
I don't really see it happening, as he doesn't offer too much by way of retros and already has been shot down before. Furthermore, the Excite series has had a few entries over the last 10 years, so I don't really think of it as retro. There has been excitebike 64, excitebiker: world rally, excitebots, and excite truck. It's more alive than some of the series currently in Smash.
Want: 0%
No thanks. An excitebot would be cool though. Is there an excitebot thread?

Klonoa: .79%
Yeah, let's go with out third tier namco mascot. that's right. I said it.

Nominations:
Matthew (Golden Sun) x 5
Edit:
And my additional nominations go to my favorite Silver Haired Maiden. Micaiah!
Micaiah x 5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Excitebiker: 3%
Want: 0%
Klonoa: .5%

On another note, I'm surprised Margnetman didn't realize something that I won't say so you all aren't tortured.

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Excitebiker
Chance: 2.5% Not really happening and a lot of competition still.
Want: 2.5% I prefer Mach Rider as the one who will use a bike more in his movesets than Wario.

Prediction
Klonoa: 7.77% lucky sevens.

Nominations
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Excitebiker
Now here's one that deserves explanation. The Excitebiker has his ups and downs. For one he is iconic, a great thing to have in smash. He has been considered once for Melee, but was shot down for difficulty to program. Since then technology has increased greatly thus making things easier to program. That along with the fact that they have come up with characters like the Ice Climbers and Olimar means that difficulty to program is waved away if they can make a good and unique character. Another up is that he has uniqueness most characters can only dream of. A character that fights on a motorcycle would be awesome. Excitebiker had 2.02 million sales in the US an 1.57 million in Japan. In smash he has ha a trophy in Melee and Brawl along with an Assist Trophy, albeit pixilated. He does, however have his downs. For one he has competition from Mach Rider, a biker more popular than him, she however probably wouldn't be on a bike.Another down is the fact that he has been shot down before. And last but not least is the fact that he doesn't have popularity (though that didn't stop Wii Fit Trainer and R.O.B.).
All in all I give him a 17%
Want: 100%

Klonoa: 0.89%

x5 Bowser Jr. [with Shadow Mario transformation]

 

[Starcutter]

Excitebiker: 12% he's not ruled out at all.
Want: 75% he's from one of my favorite NES titles, and is pretty cool. wonder how smash would be like if he was chosen instead of ice climbers back in the day.

Klonoa: 2.4% most peeps don't seem to like him.

Noms:
It's mona pizza x5

 

[Louie G.]

EXCITEBIKER:

Chance: 7.5%
He was considered for Melee and seems to be one of the most plausible and important retros.

Want: 50%
I'd prefer Mach Rider tbh.

Klonoa: 2.45%
If we get anyone from Namco it will most definitely be Pac-Man.

Noms: Starfy x5
I COULD USE SOME HELP HERE FOX.

 

[FalKoopa]

Excitebiker:
Likelihood: 9%
He's possible. He is quite well known and iconic, got an assist trophy in Brawl and was considered for Melee. He faces competition from Mach Rider, who is (atleast to me) a Darker and Edgier Excitebiker with guns. One thing that bugs me, is why is Excitebiker considered a retro? There was Excitebike 64 for crying out loud!

Want: 50%
I have a bit of nostalgia attached to them. I still remember playing Excitebiker on the NES.

Klonoa: 1%
Pac-Man just kills the chances of other Namco characters.

Tingle x 5

 

[McDuckletts]

How excit(ebike)ing!
Chance: 2%
He rides a bike, so I guess he could, I don't know, pick it up and smack people around with it? It could work, honestly, but that doesn't make him very likely. Why? I don't know honestly. Something inside me says "HE'LL NEVER BE IN!" Maybe it's my Mach Rider bias talking...
Want: 0.0001%
Mach Rider first plz.

Klonoa prediction: 1.83%
If any Namco characters get in, it probably won't be Klonoa. A bit unfortunate, really, since I do like him.

Nom:
Banjo-Kazooie X5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

EXCITEBIKER:
Noms: Starfy x5
I COULD USE SOME HELP HERE FOX.

. . .
. . .
. . .

I'm only doing this because of the star fox reference

 

[Golden Icarus]

One thing that bugs me, is why is Excitebiker considered a retro? There was Excitebike 64 for crying out loud!

I think the main reason is that despite having releases after the original Excitebike, and a spiritual successor (Excite Truck), he still maintains his iconic look in Melee and Brawl, and for Smash 4 (if he's included). Which still make's him look and feel retro. That, and let's not forget that the N64 is a pretty retro system in itself.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Excite Biker likelihood: 8.3%
Want: 50%

Klonoa: 4.35%

Rhythm Wrestler x5

 

[jaytalks]

I think the main reason is that despite having releases after the original Excitebike, and a spiritual successor (Excite Truck), he still maintains his iconic look in Melee and Brawl, and for Smash 4 (if he's included). Which still make's him look and feel retro. That, and let's not forget that the N64 is a pretty retro system in itself.

don' forget excitebots! because everyone else sure did (including me and Nintendo of Japan). His series isn't retro at this point. but the excitebiker we are talking comes exclusively from the NES classic. That doesn't make him retro, but definitely an NES legend.

 

[Starbound]

Likelihood: 18%
Still in the realm of possibility if Sakurai feels that the bike riding is enough of a unique trait to stand out, which it is imo.

Want: 95%
Excitebike is a world renown NES title that is certainly worthy of all-star status.

5x nomz: x5 Bowser Jr. (yeah lets do that)

Predicting 0.24% for Klonoa

 

[YoshiandToad]

Excitebiker

Likelihood: 14%
Considered before, well known, highly popular back in ye olde days, received an Assist Trophy thus at least acknowledged, but...Sakurai has shown more interest in Mach Rider and having two bike heavy characters may seem redundant. Also would be constantly on said bike; this is not a similar scenario to Wario, but it's not like having an entire moveset based around one or two things is usually a problem.

Want: 20%
Honestly I think it'd be interesting to see how they pull it off, but after the initial interest wears off I'd probably wonder if there were more deserving individuals that got pushed out for Excitebiker.

Klonoa: 0.7%
Klonoa isn't as obvious as Pac-Man, and not as popular as Lloyd from Tales either. He would however, fit far better in Smash with the likes of Sonic the Hedgehog, but people aren't gonna rate him too highly.

Nominations:
Time to vote for my second favourite video game character of all time:
Tails X 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Excitebiker
Chance: 0% - A completely generic and unimaginative character who has a complicated moveset potential.
Want: 0% - I'm not interested.

Klonoa prediction: 1.7%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Exitebiker

Chance - 10% - Excitebiker is in many ways similar to Mach Rider. However, he lacks the gun and known interest Sakurai has for Mach Rider, so she doesn't do as well as he should.

Want - 40% - Not very strong feelings attached to him. Mach Rider makes him feel kind of redundant, but that's it.


Klonoa Prediction - 0.42% - Most odd third party characters seem to hove here.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Xcite Biker:
Because most likely a modern reboot would skip the e for added cool.

Chance: 0.8%
He's a dude. On a Bike. Wario's bike move was already one of the worst designed moves in brawl, and people want a whole character of that shtick? I don't think Sakurai would do that, and I kind of hope he'll get rid of Wario's bike. Let it be an item, and Excite Biker be an AT (with retro pixel goodness). That said, there's always a chance with Retros and Sakurai...

Want: 0%
I do not want a bike character.


Klonoa: 0.21%
Pac-Man...


Slime*5
(Welcome back Gr-ooze)

*121 days and no Slime? I am disappointed with your NSider! I feel I should join just to nominate him, though given they've voted skull kid more likely for playability than Saki I doubt it really matters*

 

[Toxicroaker]

*121 days and no Slime? I am disappointed with your NSider! I feel I should join just to nominate him, though given they've voted skull kid more likely for playability than Saki I doubt it really matters*

Slime has already gone.

 

[Smasher 101]

Excitebiker's chances: 8% - Excite's pretty well known and was an assist trophy in Brawl. Has also been shot down before and Mach Rider really hurts him.
Want: 40% - I wouldn't mind him but I'd prefer Mach Rider.

Klonoa prediction: 0.70%

Starfy x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Slime has already gone.

Not on Nsider.