Professor Layton's Chances: 10%
I don't see many third-parties getting in. I see four of them pretty much a shoo-ins, and I see four as pretty much the upper limit for third-parties. That leaves... pretty much no room for Layton. Still, I view him as tied with Rayman for the most likely third party behind Pac-Mega-Sonic-Snake. Why? Well, the breakdown.
Layton is huge. Not Pac-Man huge, but huge nonetheless. He's one of the biggest series out on Nintendo systems as of now; he is a system-seller. He's known around the world, with many of his games selling in the 3-5 million range according to the admittedly sketchy VGChartz. He may not be as iconic as your Mega Man or your Pac Man... but he's still very recognizable for people who own Nintendo systems.
Level-5 and Nintendo are buddies. The Layton games, outside of a brief spinoff iOS title, are Nintendo exclusive and Nintendo publishes the games in all regions except for Japan. Level-5 has stated that they support Layton being used in crossover titles, and have already created one of their own: Professor Layton vs Ace Attorney. If Nintendo asks, I doubt they'll be turned down and I doubt negotiations will be as difficult as they were for Mega Man.
Layton is not a "fighting" character. BUT HE CAN FIGHT. Layton loses points because one doesn't automatically think, "Oh, he can fight" like one would think of Mega Man and Sonic. Still... he is a fencing expert, has used a mech-gun and other contraptions in the past, and is familiar with violence. He can be adapted to a fighter, but the idea may not occur to Sakurai-san.
Layton may be over. The developers are done with him for now... they originially intended for the most recent game to be the last in the series, but they say they do have ideas left over. It looks like they may take a break, but it does seem as if we will see the series sometime again later down the line.
All in all, the very selective third-party process is Layton's main enemy. He has a chance of passing it... but I don't think he will. Do I want him to...?
Professor Layton Want: 90%
Professor Layton and I have an interesting history together. I love the series and it was a major part of what convinced me to buy a 3DS. How could I miss out on the next Layton and Layton vs. Ace Attorney? I simply couldn't.
Anyway, I once thought Layton was a second party character. Why? Nintendo publishes the games here in NA. So... I expected him to be in Smash for a while, and was awaiting his inclusion. Then... it was a few years ago that I learned the news that he was third party. It was pretty devastating to see my vision of him in Smash disappear.
Layton is just so... Nintendo. He still feels like a Nintendo character to me...not as much as Mega Man does, but certainly more than Sonic, Snake, and Pac-Man do. As such, I kind of overlook the fact that he's third party when I'm considering my want of him. The only thing that does prevent him from getting a perfect 100 from me is the fact that it would be difficult to include him and make a playstyle that truly represents his character, and I'm not sure if it's entirely worth the effort.
Falco Prediction: 92.34%
Even when people cut Star Fox characters... they rarely cut Falco.
Slime x5
Hurry, Cheezey.... Let's goo! I want to rate Meowth and the Duck Hunt Dog, but we goo-t to push this goo-y through first.
