Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[MasterOfKnees]

I think 10 new seems somewhat reasonable as counting villager mega man and wii fit trainer that would be only 2 less then Brawl's amount of newcomers

Yeah, but remember, a bigger emphasis is being put on balancing and less focus is being put on adding as many new characters as possible (http://nintendoeverything.com/sakurai-change-of-direction-may-be-needed-for-next-smash-bros/).

I'm certainly not expecting an amount that's close to Brawl's amount of newcomers.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Yeah, but remember, a bigger emphasis is being put on balancing and less focus is being put on adding as many new characters as possible (http://nintendoeverything.com/sakurai-change-of-direction-may-be-needed-for-next-smash-bros/).

I'm certainly not expecting an amount that's close to Brawl's amount of newcomers.

Seems somewhat reasonable but I do sort of doubt the roster would look exactly like that, their's cotton candy and prizes and all sorts of surprises down here! If we limit Sakurai to 10 newcomers a lot of those guys would make the list but frankly I don't think Sakurai sees some of these characters the same way we do so within all probability we will likely see shocking additions even with the limited add ons

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Seems somewhat reasonable but I do sort of doubt the roster would look exactly like that, their's cotton candy and prizes and all sorts of surprises down here! If we limit Sakurai to 10 newcomers a lot of those guys would make the list but frankly I don't think Sakurai sees some of these characters the same way we do so within all probability we will likely see shocking additions even with the limited add ons

No doubt, Sakurai is never predictable. First G&W, then R.O.B, and now WFT. I doubt anything will top WFT, but I've got a feeling he still has another trick up his sleeve (inb4Omastar.)

 

[MargnetMan23]

No doubt, Sakurai is never predictable. First G&W, then R.O.B, and now WFT. I doubt anything will top WFT, but I've got a feeling he still has another trick up his sleeve (inb4Omastar.)

OH YEAH THAT TOTALLY SEEMS LIKELY XD OK if Wii Fit Trainer was the R.O.B of this roster who's the Pokemon Trainer? XD

 

[MasterOfKnees]

OH YEAH THAT TOTALLY SEEMS LIKELY XD OK if Wii Fit Trainer was the R.O.B of this roster who's the Pokemon Trainer? XD

I don't know, but given how awesome a surprise Pokémon Trainer was I can't wait.

Either way, maybe it's time we stop chit chatting and let the thread carry its purpose.

 

[AEMehr]

Dillon
Likelihood - 40%
I don't have a doubt in my mind that he'll have a presence in the new game, but I'm not completely certain about him being a playable character. He would be the ideal downloadable title representative next to Mallo.
Want - 100%
I really want the franchise to grow, I love this game and I'm a big fan of all of the character designs and the setting. Dillon is my most wanted new franchise character next to Little Mac.

Waluigi
Prediction - 42%

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x5

 

[TheDivineDeity]

Dillon
Likelihood - 90% Want - 100%
I'm 100% confident he will make a presence of some kind in the game, whether or not as an AT, trophy, stick, etc. But, and this is a big BUT, why would Nintendo ever pass up the offer to promote their 3DS lineup of downloadable games by not having DIllion playable? His inclusion is almost as certain as the Mii - of course Nintendo will do whatever they can to promote their titles. Plus, Dillon, adds a representation of something new entirely, and stands out of the pack.

 

[SmashShadow]

Dillon: 18%
He's from a new series and being a download doesn't exactly help with notoriety.

Want: 35% Doesn't look very interesting to me.

Waluigi: 27%

2x Impa
3x Vaati

 

[Groose]

Maybe Isaac, Pac-Man and Mii should be cut from that since they're the bottom 3 on the list, and we already have 3 newcomers announced, for some reason I'm just not expecting more than 10 newcomers. Either way, I'd be in love with the roster if it turned out like that.

I'd much prefer a Ridley made of flesh and bones instead of the spectral transparent Ridley that's depicted in the picture though

Finding a picture of Ridley that would merge well with the others... Was a daunting task. I thought the Brawl picture of him would look best, but every version of it I could find had an annoying border that I couldn't get rid of. So I settled on that pic. Still, I think I did a decent job of sizing him .

I doubt we'll get 13 Newcomers as well, but I was just posing a hypothetical question. Those are the ten that the 'educated' community here considers to be the most likely; they've all received over 50% in chance.

Personally, I'd be satisfied with just the Top Four of the list, hopefully with Mewtwo thrown on as well. I didn't include him in any of the pics as he is a veteran; if he were included, he'd place in first on both lists.

[collapse=TOP SECRET DO NOT LOOK]

Court is now in session for the trial of Phoenix Wright!
Are the defense and the prosecution both prepared?
​

Apollo Justice, Defense Team
Leader, is FINE, Your Honor.

The prosecution has been ready for awhile, Your Honor.
​

Very well. Mr. Edgeworth, your opening statement, please.
​

This case is very straightforward, Your Honor.
The defendant, Mr. Phoenix Wright, would make a
horrible choice for a Smash Bros. character.
He'd be a waste of a precious third-party slot.

The prosecution shall prove this in today's trial!
​

I think you meant to say, "the prosecution
will TRY to prove this." Because, Edgeworth...

I believe in Mr. Wright's Smash potential,
and I will not lose this case today!

Why, Mr. Justice! Please keep your voice down!
I'm pretty sure you just made me go deaf in my left ear!
​

Mr. Justice, this is a court of law. Please
try to be a gentleman and don't abuse the elderly!​

Oop. I guess I overdid it on my
Chords of Steel workout his morning.

But it will be worth it when I win this
case and gather Mr. Wright new supporters!

The defense has a surprising amount of bravado today.
I'd say that you are more enthusiastic than Wright himself.

Sadly, it's all in vain. I have a truly decisive
witness up my sleeve today.

​

A... a decisive witness?
Who is it?
​

This witness claims to know Wright better than any other.
They've worked many cases together in the past.

The prosecution calls Detective **** Gumshoe to the stand!
​

Prosecutor Edgeworth, sir!
​

Witness. Name and occupation, please.
​

[/collapse]

 

[Opossum]

Seven of my most wanted newcomers are in both the wanted and expected lists. That makes me really happy. K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Palutena, Little Mac, Isaac, and Takamaru.

If we got all of those, the Brawl vets, and Mewtwo, as well, I couldn't really ask for more.

 

[TheCreator]

Finding a picture of Ridley that would merge well with the others... Was a daunting task. I thought the Brawl picture of him would look best, but every version of it I could find had an annoying border that I couldn't get rid of. So I settled on that pic. Still, I think I did a decent job of sizing him .

I doubt we'll get 13 Newcomers as well, but I was just posing a hypothetical question. Those are the ten that the 'educated' community here considers to be the most likely; they've all received over 50% in chance.

Personally, I'd be satisfied with just the Top Four of the list, hopefully with Mewtwo thrown on as well. I didn't include him in any of the pics as he is a veteran; if he were included, he'd place in first on both lists.

I'm super happy Pacman is on it.

 

[Smasher 101]

Dillon's chances: 25% - I think he's more likely to be an assist trophy.
Want: 50%

Waluigi prediction: 26%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5.

 

[shinhed-echi]

Dillon

Chance: 75%
More than a probably yes, probably no scenario.
This game.. SSB4 are TWO games. A Wii U game, and a 3DS game, therefore, Sakurai might want to represent BOTH sides, not just one.
And Dillon is one of the first characters to appear in the 3DS' digital store. And now he has two games.
He is also unique-looking and possibly unique fighting. His genre isn't very common in Nintendo systems either.
The old west is hardly represented, so a unique stage will most likely show up too.
He's also from a NEW SERIES, something Sakurai is apparently looking around for.
Both traits, uniqueness, and the new factor, make him stand a bit higher in chances than more representatives from recurring series.


Want: 60%
Not in my top 10 exactly, because I don't know much about him, but he looks cool, and I like rolling characters. Armadillos are awesome, and I would love to have him and Sonic have a rolling match. But I assure you Dillon is in my 11-20 characters to get in.

 

[Fastblade5035]

Dillon Chance: 58% He'd have to have been chosen after his first game, but if he wasnt, the second might have changed Sakurai's mind. Want: 100% West aww yeah Waaaaa: 38% Noms: Er... Dark Pit x3 Magnus x1 Viridi x1

 

[Sebz]

Dillon~ 50%
The only reason it's so high is because it really all boils down to whether Nintendo wants to promote this franchise or not.

Want~ 30%
Don't know the character but I love anything Western.

Waluigi~ 15%
Assist Trophy suits him.

Noms:
Genesect x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Dillon: 27%
He's a pretty reasonable suggestion, and even if his series isn't extremely acclaimed or popular (it's a fairly decent tower defense game, but it's no Plants vs. Zombies), Nintendo seems to be proud of him. The Rolling Western received a sequel and a puzzle panel, and he has pretty unique moveset potential.

Waluigi predict: 27.5%

nominate Saki Amamiya x5

 

[PK-Omelette]

Ike-
Likelyhood: 99%- I say this only based on the fact that FE doesn't have enough reps (3 or 4 is fine with me but 2 is a bit to little), Ike is already very popular amongst both those who know him personally in FE and those that know him through Brawl, his attack set is so much different than the rest of the cast making his move set unique if they change it or not. The 1% is the chance that complications will come around and he'll be cut because of them, like Roy and Mewtwo did.

Want:85%- I love what they did with Ike in Project M and would love to see his combat system like that in SSB4, however he's not a personal favorite (nothing personal against Ike, I just like other characters from other games like Odd from CL or Ness from EB/Mo2 better). I may have mastered him at one time, but his current status on Brawl is a leap off character to me that's simple to learning character for newbies and his fan base to use.

Toon Zelda-
8%- Although toon games have become a little more common and her popularity has risen a bit, I'm not sure if Zelda would be the specifically selected option. There's a lot of competitors from the Zelda franchise of both original and toon she must compete with, along with herself (Tetra) so that even if another slot opened for a Zelda character, it's no high horse to bet on. Then again, out of every probable Zelda character combined into the mix and 8% is actually kinda high X]

Nominations-
Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness... (jk)
Lucas (already in PM roster so I'll just cross my fingers for a reappearance in SSB4)
Ninten x4
Kumatora x1

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Ike-
Likelyhood: 99%- I say this only based on the fact that FE doesn't have enough reps (3 or 4 is fine with me but 2 is a bit to little), Ike is already very popular amongst both those who know him personally in FE and those that know him through Brawl, his attack set is so much different than the rest of the cast making his move set unique if they change it or not. The 1% is the chance that complications will come around and he'll be cut because of them, like Roy and Mewtwo did.

Want:85%- I love what they did with Ike in Project M and would love to see his combat system like that in SSB4, however he's not a personal favorite (nothing personal against Ike, I just like other characters from other games like Odd from CL or Ness from EB/Mo2 better). I may have mastered him at one time, but his current status on Brawl is a leap off character to me that's simple to learning character for newbies and his fan base to use.

Toon Zelda-
8%- Although toon games have become a little more common and her popularity has risen a bit, I'm not sure if Zelda would be the specifically selected option. There's a lot of competitors from the Zelda franchise of both original and toon she must compete with, along with herself (Tetra) so that even if another slot opened for a Zelda character, it's no high horse to bet on. Then again, out of every probable Zelda character combined into the mix and 8% is actually kinda high X]

Nominations-
Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness...Ness... (jk)
Lucas (already in PM roster so I'll just cross my fingers for a reappearance in SSB4)
Ninten x4
Kumatora x1

 

[PK-Omelette]

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Might want to change your post to the actual character being rated now.

 

[PK-Omelette]

Might want to change your post to the actual character being rated now.

Everything is based on ones own personal experiences. Why do you think there are people who like Sonic 06? I don't know if I just kinda overplayed with Ike when I started Brawl or if his move set was just to... basic, for me anyway, but he was just to easy so I went onto other characters. Personally I really grew to like the cast with a more difficult to master move set, like the EB/Mother characters (I find Ness more difficult to play as than Lucas, especially in my new favorite stage Jungle Japes, which is why I like him so much more in Brawl over original).
What can I say? I like to be challenged by my character

 

[AEMehr]

Everything is based on ones own personal experiences. Why do you think there are people who like Sonic 06? I don't know if I just kinda overplayed with Ike when I started Brawl or if his move set was just to... basic, for me anyway, but he was just to easy so I went onto other characters. Personally I really grew to like the cast with a more difficult to master move set, like the EB/Mother characters (I find Ness more difficult to play as than Lucas, especially in my new favorite stage Jungle Japes, which is why I like him so much more in Brawl over original).
What can I say? I like to be challenged by my character

No he means that you're supposed to discuss the chances and want of Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western and your prediction for what Waluigi's chance would be.

 

[PK-Omelette]

No he means that you're supposed to discuss the chances and want of Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western and your prediction for what Waluigi's chance would be.

Hahahaha, I know. I just spotted an Ike and Toon patch and rolled with it.

I suppose I should've been a little more sarcastic in the original post, I don't think most people caught the joke...

 

[neosam23]

Dillon Chance: 75%.
I'd say he'd be a nice addition to the game. I've done some research on him and he'd have a really unique and awesome moveset, being able to call
towers and roll into things.

Want: 100%.
To be completely and absolutely honest, the first time I seen Dillon (which was when I seen the game trailer), I really wanted to buy the game. Actually, I'm gonna buy it right now, to show everyone my dedication.

Waluigi: 45%. I feel like giving him a chance. People might think he's unpopular but I don't care. Wario got in so I'd say Waluigi needs a turn, too.

x5 on Ghirahim yaaah.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Dillon prediction - 37%

I think he has a reasonable chance although personally I think Sakurai might try to make a moveset for Mallo because I would and I'm sure many others would consider Mallo and Pushmo to be the face of eShop right now. Sonic might also be a problem, since they would have similarities.

Dillon want - 70%

I like Dillon, he wouldn't be near the top of my wants but I'd be happy to see him even though I haven't played one of his games. (and don't really intend to)

Waluigi prediction - 40%

He's definitely in the running but I fail to see the real value in including him. He seems like a hodge podge character who would just use tennis racquets and golf clubs. It's nice as an addition to Peach, but not a whole moveset dedicated to it.

nominations:

Chibi Robo x3
Robin x2

 

[Groose]

Dillon Prediction: 33%​

It would be excellent marketing, but he isn't truly an All-Star yet. I personally doubt that Sakurai has taken much notice of Dillon's series, which was still in infancy when the roster was being decided. He's one of the fellows I feel will be left and and will have a big following leading up to the next Smash.​

​

But if Sonic doesn't return, I could definitely see Dillon inheriting Sonic's moveset. Or, he could be a late-addition Sonic clone. That has to boost his chances, as does his cool design.​

​

Dillon Want: 85% ​

Dillon is one cool customer. His design is strong and I feel he could bring a few things to the Smash table. Besides, I'm all for new IPs.​

​

Waluigi Prediction: 33.33%​

Waa. I feel he'll do OK... but not anything great.​

​

Medusa x5.​

She must be made to face the light.​

 

[Groose]

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE


Soon to be....


WALUIGI TIME!

 

[Groose]

Dillon (Rolling Western)
30.62% Chance
54.23% Want

Dillon was on a roll yesterday; he managed to make you like him and has broken into the top ten in terms of want. He also put up a better fight than most characters in terms of chance; while you didn't deem him "probable," he's still highly rated, especially at this stage of the game.

But this next character... may be even more hotly debated. Expecting Pokemon Trainer? Too Bad! Waluigi time. Yes, our contestant today is Waluigi, and he is the very face of controversy. Please leave your chance and want on Waluigi today...

​

Tomorrow's contestants will be Pokemon Trainer Red and '"NEW" Pokemon Trainer. "NEW" Pokemon Trainer refers to ALL Pokemon Trainers that have not been in the Smash series (Gen II, Gen III, Gen IV, Gen V, Gen VI). Please predict how people will rate Pokemon Trainer Red AND "New" Pokemon Trainer. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by TumblrFamous. Have fun with an extra five.

Today marks thirty days since we voted on Ridley. That means Rildey has been added to the nominations list again; feel free to push for a renomination! Oh dear.

 

[Fastblade5035]

WAAAA:
Chance: 30%
Has AT background, and other stuff going for him, but has to compete with Toad, Boozer Jr, Paper Mario, Dr. Mario, etc.

Want: 1%
WAAAAAAAA

Pokemon Trainer: 79%
New Super Mario Bros. Pokemon Trainer: 39%

Noms:
Magnus x1
Dark Pit x3
Viridi x1

 

[Groose]

Waluigi's Chances: 35%
I'll give Waluigi some more credit than I probably should. He made it as an assist trophy, which still baffles me to this day. It also still baffles me that Toad hasn't made the cut yet. I'm so baffled that I'm going to come out and say it: I think Waluigi has the edge over his Mario series competitors. Honestly, I think Sakurai has taken a shine to the guy, and in the end that is what matters the most.

Waluigi Want: 80%
Part of me would say, "How did he make the cut?" The other part of me would say, "WAAAAA!"

Pokemon Trainer Red Prediction: 54.27%
People are down on him for some reason. Probably because of the idea of a new Pokemon Trainer and the fact that he hogs three movesets.

"New" Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 33.98%
People are behind a Hoenn Trainer, people are behind a Unova Trainer, people are behind a Kalos Trainer. Since we're rating them all together, I'm going to take a stab at around a third.

Medusa x5
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the light.

And I just realized... Pokemon Trainer tomorrow. Sounds like a fun music section for me to compile!

 

[Opossum]

Expecting me to say Waluigi time? TOO BAD! ...Wa.

Likelihood: 20%
A fair bit lower in terms of chance than I gave Toad and Bowser Jr., but still a possibility. It's just the question of whether Mario will get a newcomer or not.

Predicting a 78% for our current Trainer, seeing as he has detractors as of late.
Predicting a 21% for a new Trainer.

Nominating Falco x5

My post is purple today. PURPLE IS A COLOR.

 

[Groose]

My post is purple today. PURPLE IS A COLOR.

My goal for the day is to introduce as many people as possible to Brawl in the Family. Hence the links on both pictures, and the link here.

Oh, and you forgot a want percentage.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Love the BiTF pic

Waaaaa:

Chance: 11%
Not just for the waaa sound, but more because he's barely a character. He's not come out of a sports/party game yet, and even in those he hasn't got the most consistent/interesting of characteristics.. Except Waaaa!

Want: 5%
I wouldn't hate if he was in, but that's as good as I can give him.


Pokémon Trainer: 56.53%
This is smash boards where we're cynacle about how long things take to make and don't like switch characters.. but it is pokémon trainer, so it shouldn't be too low a score.

NEWémon Trainer: 12.34%
People think it's needed, and it would be a good tie in for Kalos or Hoenn (if R/S remake happens), so I have it as a considered DLC character, but I think there'll people who don't consider that and thus vote them higher.


Slime*5 (making all these puns is getting blubbly hard)

 

[SpaceJell0]

Waluigi Chance: 5% No, just no. he's not important or a Nintendo All Star at all
Waluigi Want: 0% Unfortunately I'm not allowed to give negative percentages for this abomination who was only created to fill in as Luigi's rival and have no redeeming traits

Pokémon Trainer Red: 60% People are going to expect the previously unexpected too optimisticly
New Pokémon Trainer: 70% More likely to keep the uniqueness and not become bland for Smash Bros

x5 Starfy

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Waluigi

Likelihood: 10% - Again, as with Mario reps I don't really see a new one joining the fray, and if anyone I believe it'll be Bowser Jr.

Want: 10% - Minus 100% for absolutely hating the character, 10% for screaming "Too bad, Waluigi time!" at your friends.

Pokémon Trainer Prediction: 84%

New Pokémon Trainer Prediction: 12%

Nominations:
5x Ganondorf

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Waluigi: 10%
Want: 0%
Red: 65%
New Trainer: 30%
Nominate:
Lucas x 3
Ridley x 2

 

[TumblrFamous]

I won? Yay, after 31 days of incorrectly guessing, I did it!!!!

Anyways, Waluigi time!

Waluigi Prediction: 35%
He's certainly popular, but he's also hated. I have mixed feelings. But ultimately, there are better Mario reps. I would want the likes of Toad and Bowser Jr. over him, and they probably are over him in terms of likeliness.

Want: 40%
Meh. I wouldn't care if he wasn't in, but I would enjoy his appearance because it's Waluigi.

I'm not going to predict the Pokemon Trainers. I don't want the chance to win two times in a row, I'll let someone else have a chance. Although I think most can agree Red will most likely be staying.

As for my 10 nominations, NONE for Ridley. It's time for someone fabulous!
Ghirahim x10

 

[Groose]

I'm not going to predict the Pokemon Trainers. I don't want the chance to win two times in a row, I'll let someone else have a chance. Although I think most can agree Red will most likely be staying.

As for my 10 nominations, NONE for Ridley. It's time for someone fabulous!
Ghirahim x10

Very honorable of you with the prediction. Still, make sure you jump back on it soon!

I'd be surprised if we didn't do a revote on Ridley within the next two weeks, though. The fact that he lost to King K. Rool by less than a quarter of a percent will probably rub some people the wrong way.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Very honorable of you with the prediction. Still, make sure you jump back on it soon!

I'd be surprised if we didn't do a revote on Ridley within the next two weeks, though. The fact that he lost to King K. Rool by less than a quarter of a percent will probably rub some people the wrong way.

Don't worry, I'm just not doing today. I'll be back tomorrow.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Waluigi!
Chance: 10%
There are lots more Mario reps that are a better choice like Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario. Unless Waluigi counts as...a...Wario character?
Want: 5%
I never want Waluigi time!!! His voice is soooo annoying!

Prediction for Pokemon Trainer: 39%
Prediction for NEW Pomemon Trainer: 44%

Nominations:
Sylveon x5