Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[loganhogan]

Omastar
chance 1% I can't think of one reason for it to compete against the big guys, if it was somebody like Meowth I could see a reason to consider it.
want 30% Would be very weird but I like weird.

Palutena
chance 80% She's the second most important Kid Icarus character, and she's also popular if that helps. If Kid Icarus gets a newcomer it should be her but there isn't a guarantee that it will get one; I wish there was though.
want 100% She is Nintendo's best female character in my opinion at least when it comes to her personality and she's a unique and fun character too.

Pauline x5
predict 10%

 

[loganhogan]

You guys just ruined the Mario-Wario-DK women triforce vote balance .

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Omastar
Chance: 0.001%
Of all of the Pokemon, all 718 creatures of different types and species, why in the loving name of Christ would OMASTAR be chosen out of all of them? He was never especially popular, he didn't play any significant role in the anime, and most importantly, he's mostly if not completely irrelevant by today's standards. He doesn't have a good build for fighter either, essentially being a simple mollusk or something. This is why I stopped nominating Heracross after a while. Yeah, he's my favorite Pokemon, but he still doesn't have a good chance in Smash despite my own judgement. Some Fanboys/girls need to realize something: just because you like a character, that doesn't mean he/she/it would have a good chance unless said character is extremely popular, like Mewtwo or Lucario. In other words, USE COMMON SENSE D@MMIT!

He has continuously been voted up because he's just that random. There's probably not any Pokémon who'd be more random to introduce than Omastar, except maybe Finneon and Masquerain. It's a joke, nobody seriously believes he stands a chance at all

 

[DarkKry4]

You guys just ruined the Mario-Wario-DK women triforce vote balance .

lol its okay. you can't rate 3 characters at once anyways

i look forward to rating these 3

 

[MargnetMan23]

He has continuously been voted up because he's just that random. There's probably not any Pokémon who'd be more random to introduce than Omastar, except maybe Finneon and Masquerain. It's a joke, nobody seriously believes he stands a chance at all

Eh, maybe trubbish would be more random, everybody likes him RIGHT?
RIGHT?
RIGHTTTTT

 

[Deleted member]

There's probably not any Pokémon who'd be more random to introduce than Omastar, except maybe Finneon and Masquerain.

I beg to differ.

 

[MargnetMan23]

I beg to differ.

Random takes a little more then that, Magikarp is probably THE most obvious random choice Sakurai could pick. Being random to me both means being weird and mostly unmemorable =P so if we want to go THAT route Luvdisc is way more random =P

 

[YoshiandToad]

Random takes a little more then that, Magikarp is probably THE most obvious random choice Sakurai could pick. Being random to me both means being weird and mostly unmemorable =P so if we want to go THAT route Luvdisc is way more random =P

Luvdisc? Heart scales. Luvdisc is memorable for having a use.

Mothrim on the other hand is so forgettable I almost put Qwilfish here.

But in doing so, I've remembered him. Curses.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I beg to differ.

Magikarp does have memetic status though, and Game Freak themselves do throw in the Magikarp trainers and Magikarp jokes in here and there. Sure it'd be random, but not Omastar random.

The thing with Omastar is that it isn't hot talk anywhere. Trubbish and Garbodor for example are talked about because they're extremely ugly, even if they aren't memorable. Omastar has nothing, it's just kind of there, and on top of that it has a somewhat goofy look, which is what makes it fun.

 

[Groose]

Omastar Chance: 0%
I gave it a good think. I thought of all of the ways he could get in, and I came up with three: they make a Fossil-Based Pokemon Trainer, they introduce Dance Master Tierno, or they choose the most random Pokemon out there. None of those would ever happen and none of them even guarantee Omastar.

Omastar Want: 0%
No.

Palutena Chance: 55%
I'm staying strong on what said during Day 2. Palutena does face a bit of competition from Hades, Medusa, Magnus, the Eggplant Wizard, and Dark Pit, but she's the clear frontrunner for the most important Kid Icarus character left out. Two things work in her favor: she's a top-ten popular request in both regions (though this popularity surge may have been a teeny bit late), she was recently given a lot of love by Sakurai and is probably fresh in his mind. However, she faces a situation where there are probably only a few roster spots open and must contend with the likes of popular behemoths K. Rool and deserving fighters like Little Mac. I'd say there's about an 80% chance we see a Kid Icarus newcomer, and she's the most likely suspect.

And for those of you who say Kid Icarus is such a small series... it is, but it's still well known. Pit was an 80's gaming icon and Uprising has a large following. More people know Kid Icarus than say, Mother, Custom Robo, or Golden Sun. And even if it is small, the fact that Sakurai poured his soul into it for years still makes it a likely suspect for a newcomer.

Palutena Want: 100%
She's among my most wanted newcomers. I love a good projectile spammer, and that's what she is, through and through. She's also one of the better characters that's come out of Ninty, which is saying something. Finally, she fits well with the rest of the cast; you can have her in a damsel battle with Peach, a showdown of Light vs Darkness against the Dark Lord Ganondorf, and see if she can defeat the greatest Komatos slayer of them all.

Kawashima: 4.54%
Despite Blue Pikmin's efforts, I think people still see him as a joke character.

Groose x5
We need more pompadour.

Groose, can you make sure that Dr. Kawashima's picture in the front OP is the one with hands, perhaps some people don't know that was given some in the most recent Brain Age game.

It shall be done.

Omastar: ZEROOOOOOOOO TIMES INFINITY... IS STILL ZERO.

Technically, it's an IDF (Indeterminate Form). But your point is taken.

(decided to come back to this thread)

Feel free to come on any days you like. Feel free t skip any days we like. That's how we run things here.

DAY OVER​

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WILD OMASTAR FAINTED! GROOSE GAINED 0 XP! ​

​

 

[BluePikmin11]

 

[MargnetMan23]

Silly Groose wild Omastar went extinct years ago

 

[XenothiumX]

As a fan of your ratings, I must express I am at a loss now that instead of pure commentary you're talking about some statistical model that I admit I find tremendously confusing.

Mostly because Sakurai doesn't follow math. We're talking about a chaotic being, so given that I miss your less math-y commentary.

Sir Issac Newton Invented calculus to explain why the moon is constantly falling towards the Earth

Erimir believes he has invented a new form of math that will explain who gets into the next smash.

That being said I don't think he's played Uprising.

 

[Morbi]

I missed the day? WTF?!

Just so everyone knows, I was going to vote 100% on each category anyways. #OmastarIsMyOMaster... and a Star.

 

[Groose]

Omastar (Pokemon)
0.19% chance
11.63% want
Did he... did he just beat Chancellor Cole in chance and want? I... I'm speechless.

Palutena (Kid Icarus)
70.69% chance (previously 76.35%)
74.37% want (previously 77.22%)
Palutena did a admirable job in her rerate, slipping only a few percentage in each category... but a few percentage can be deadly. She went from second to fourth on the chance charts (passed by K. Rool and Ridley) and fell from third to fourth in the want charts (passed by Little Mac). Not a bad day (heck, she's still top four in both categories by a safe margi), but it must be frustrating for her supporters.

Today we're rating Kawashima. The Brain Age guy. He's got floating hands and a floating, brain-trained head... but does he have what it takes to get into Smash? Please rate Doctor Kawashima in chance and want today.

Tomorrow we'll be rating Rosalina, who has just been revealed to be the fifth playable character in Super Mario 3D World. Please predict how this will help Rosalina's chances. Ephecus and Sid-Cada win five extra noms today.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dr. Kawashima Chance: 60%

Dr. Kawashima would be a hilarious character to play as, with his franchise very well known like Wii Fit and Animal Crossing, only makes his series more visible to Sakurai when choosing characters. He's actually been requested a few times (2 exactly) in a pre-Brawl poll. I really do Dr. Kawashima can happen as a playable character, but there are only a few hypothetical obstacles he has to face, whether the real Kawashima would accept this at all, that’s why it’s at 50/50. Iwata’s strong relationship with Dr. Kawashima could also influence the floating head’s inclusion, which could lead to Sakurai asking the doctor himself. That said, along with his great moveset potential (Which is why I gave 5% extra) and importance to the Nintendo company (In which most people don’t realize and dismiss), this is a character I can happily accept and eventually others will accept.


Dr. Kawashima Want: 100% I already stated it above.

Rosalina Prediction: 9.6% She's actually become a legitimate contender for the Mario series now, but I think it doesn't mean alot.

Nominations:
x5 Nintendog

 

[Morbi]

Kawashima Chance: 5%

He isn't the most likely newcomer, but he does actually follow some of the criteria that Sakurai looks at. So he is an ideal choice, he would be even more WTF FTW than Wii Fit Trainer was. Brain Age is actually one of the more popular DS games too.

Kawashima Want: 100%

Blame BluePikmin... he made me want this guy... not even trolling. I actually want him.

Rosalina Prediction: 20%

 

[Chandeelure]

Dr.Kawashima
-Chances:5%
-Want:0%
Rosalina
-Prediction: 40%
BANDANA DEE X5 ...the revenge is coming.

 

[Starcutter]

Dr. Kawashima: 10% can't doubt the brain age sales, but really, it's one of those things you wouldn't expect a character from, but a stage is entirely possible. like pictochat.
Want: honest to goodness, I don't think I've ever rated a character ABSOLUTE ZERO, but I can't think of ONE redeeming factor from this guy. NOT. ONE. sorry, blue, but I gotta do what's right. 0%.

Rosalina prediction: 35.8% I think her chances completely UPPED since yesterday. a lot of other people think that too.

Noms:
Pichu 2
Eevee 2
and for the heck of it,
Beedrill (just since he's one of my favorite pokemon.)

 

[Opossum]

Dr. Kawashima time...woo.

Likelihood: 0.01%
He's just not happening. Offers nothing that can be a unique, not-just-aesthetic playstyle, has virtually no requests, is a caricature of a real-life neuroscientist (so legal issues abound...), is a floating head with hands, and is pretty damn minor in the grand scheme of Nintendo.

Want: 0%
Call it the Impa Effect.

Rosalina prediction: 20.34%

Nominating Muddy Mole x5

 

[Pacack]

Dr. Kawahima:

Chance: 27%

He has a definite chance. He is the star of a game that sold millions and he really has nothing terribly against his inclusion except his lack of requests. I would not be surprised by him. This is only so low because he has to go up against far too many opponent, and he might get overlooked. I still expect him more for the game after this one, though.

Want: 40%

I actually really have warmed up to the idea because of Bluepikmin11.

Rosalina prediction:
19%
I'm still not expecting many people to give her a great chance. Toad and Bowser Jr. are both far more likely, and Paper Mario at least is close.

Nominate:
Daitoryo x5

 

[Gunla]

Dr. Troll with a head and hands:
Chances: 5%- Well known, but his lack of a real body means lack of a fighting frame. I prefer my fighters to have a body of sorts.
Want: 1%- I really do not want the Doc that much.

Rosalina-Predicting....- 33%- Her inclusion in 3D World is worth some discussion.

Who gets my Nominations today?
Bandanna Dee! X5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Mission Complete =D

15% well considering Wii Fit Trainer became a character (sue me =P) I have no reason to believe Sakurai is completely above Kawashima. He's based off a real person which may make it a little questionable but the fact of the matter is if Sakurai thinks he could make a good character out of that HE WILL =P
Want: 60% BluePikmin certainly overstates his claim but you guys don't give him enough credit. I like weird characters and this guy would probably be more interesting in practice then R.O.B did =P (I don't even hate R.O.B)

Rosalina: 23.8% MUH RECENCY

Noms:
Bulborb x5

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Kawashima
Chance: 5%
Don't underestimate Brain Age's popularity. Nintendo has put a lot of time into this series and I wouldn't be surprised if it got more representation in SSB4. I mean, Brain Age got a song in Brawl and some Stickers (I think). However, I think the only Brain Age material that we will see in SSB4 are songs, stages, stickers, Assist Trophies, and/or trophies. But, I highly doubt that Dr. Kawashima will be a playable character on the roster. That would be an odd choice for him. Then again, he did put in the Wii Fit Trainer… so I guess anything could happen.
Want: 10%
The concept is cool, but eh. I don't want him on the roster.

Rosalina Prediction: 20.07%
2007 is the year Super Mario Galaxy got released, so my prediction is based off of that! In all seriousness though, I bet people will overrate her. I'll save my arguments for tomorrow.

BANDANA DEE X5 ...the revenge is coming.

Hahaha! I'll help out with the cause! Besides, I would LOVE to see him in SSB4!
Nominations: Bandana Waddle Dee 5x

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Omastar (Pokemon)
0.19% chance
11.63% want
Did he... did he just beat Chancellor Cole in chance and want? I... I'm speechless.

any who . . . . . . .
Blue's Doctor - 5.15%
personally I have no idea what to rate him at, I'm just going of whim
want - 50%
I'm indifferent, that's really about it
Rosalina - 12.21%
she has came back to be a contender, but she is still not important enough to the Mario series, and could easily be used as an alternate custom, she is gonna have a ruff day tomorrow,
Nomination:

BANDANA DEE X5 ...the revenge is coming.

this has inspired me to help the cause:
Bandana DeeX3
RoyX1
Dark PitX1

 

[Chandeelure]

Bandanna Dee! X5

Nominations: Bandana Waddle Dee 5x

Nomination:
Bandana DeeX3

 

[Smasher 101]

Dr. Kawashima's chances: 0.5%
Want: 0% - Don't like this idea at all, sorry

Rosalina prediction: 12.39% - I actually don't think her chances were helped that much, but I might be alone on that.

Bandana Waddle Dee x5 because why not?

 

[Sid-cada]

Dr. Kawashima

Chance - 0.01% - If the real-life one approves, and Sakurai goes after him as playable, he may have a chance. I don't see either really happening, though, sense he does nothing that Assist Trophy can't equally due justice to.

Want - 20% - Don't hate him, per say, but he feels a lot like a wasted roster space. I'd imagine he'd be the perfect Assist Trophy, quizzing your knowledge (maybe even that of Nintendo's history), but as a playable character, he doesn't offer much.


Abstaining from predicting, due to me getting the extra nominations (somehow).

Nominations
Hades X10

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Dr. Kawashima
Chance: 25% the good old Doc could surprise us in so many ways, like for example a surprise test, a team project for the next semester or could he really slip through the door, climb a massive wall and finally get to the top and make it to the final roster where he will go against Nintendo´s greatest Characters, I think he can.
Like BluePikmin say the Doc has requests, the popularity, the massive sells, the appeal to many people and if I must say he represents a genre that is so hard to sell, I´m even surprised of how well done are his games and is the "Educational" genre, most of this type of games just plain suck but Brain Age has made many people reconsider and even have fun playing it (now after many games, there are a lot of fans for this series) so I will say you need to respect the Doc, like it or not (and the genre for the moment is not even in Smash so it will be a plus).
Other argument that the people have is that it would be hard to develop and program but seriously some of those people request Sukapon and Rayman, for me it would almost be the same to make, one or the other and if Sakurai and his Team have work with more unconventional characters like Captain Falco, Fox, Mega Man and even Villager, I cannot see why the Doc cannot be implemented in so form of playable character.
Want: 60% after writing all of the above I almost rate him below 30% but writing and then thinking about how a Educational game has become so big and fun and how many people has help with daily routines to get better memory, it almost surprise me how well done is the series and that I should respect this series more and the Doc, so I will rate him even higher than I was thinking, props to the character if he makes it in.

Prediction
Rosalina: 10% a lot of competition going on, not only with the Mario series but with all the series in general.

Nomination
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm enjoying this thread alot! Please I would love to hear more!

Like BluePikmin say the Doc has requests, the popularity, the massive sells, the appeal to many people and if I must say he represents a genre that is so hard to sell, I´m even surprised of how well done are his games and is the "Educational" genre, most of this type of games just plain suck but Brain Age has made many people reconsider and even have fun playing it (now after many games, there are a lot of fans for this series) so I will say you need to respect the Doc, like it or not (and the genre for the moment is not even in Smash so it will be a plus).

.n_n.

This part of your post almost made me shed a tear.

 

[Gunla]

I never have a real character I wish to nominate. I just nominate on a random basis! XD But No Problem Chandelure.

 

[DarkKry4]

Dr. Kawashima

Chance - 0%
One thing all the playable smash character's (past games and current newcomers) have in common is that they all have bodies and legs. I think these things discount him automatically. I can't deny the popularity of the game but he only seems viable as an assist trophy (which i don't think he'll be one either)

Want - 0%
eeeeeh no.

plus his inclusion would upset Reggie fans jk

Rosalina - 31.5%
Before i would have predicted her 3% but i think her chances have gotten a boost although its not enough to say shes concrete or guaranteed.

x5 Pauline

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Chance: 2%
Want: 25%

Rosalina: 6.6%

Rhythm Heaven rep x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Is BluePikmin liking every post, only because they're related to Dr. Kawashima?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Is BluePikmin liking every post, only because they're related to Dr. Kawashima?

Yerp, this is quite possibly the most positive day for the doctor!

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Have you people lost your ****ing minds? 25% for Dr. Kawashima? 5% as a "small chance"? You realize that's one in twenty? So if Sakurai rolls a critical failure, Dr. Kawashima gets in? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I INVENTED THE KEYBOARD NECKTIE!!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Have you people lost your ****ing minds? 25% for Dr. Kawashima? 5% as a "small chance"? You realize that's one in twenty? So if Sakurai rolls a critical failure, Dr. Kawashima gets in? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

You might not be doing your research on the floating head if you think were crazy.

 

[Zhadgon]

Have you people lost your ****ing minds? 25% for Dr. Kawashima? 5% as a "small chance"? You realize that's one in twenty? So if Sakurai rolls a critical failure, Dr. Kawashima gets in? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I INVENTED THE KEYBOARD NECKTIE!!

Oh really? Cool, can you send me one, I have always want a Keyboard Necktie.
.n_n.

 

[loganhogan]

Dr. Kawashima

chance 2% In his defense Brain Age is one of the newer and successful series but like with Andross, being an AT in Brawl, similar to him (floating head with hands) makes me think he'd probably be an AT. He's also a 3rd party or 4th party character that appears on the pc and 360.
want 10% I prefer the little guy from Big Brain Academy.

Captain Syrup x5
Rosalina 16%