Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Sid-cada]

Anna

Chance - 21% - I'd say she had slightly better chances than that of Bandana Dee, so I used that as a base before adding a few more points. Sure, she never was important to the story, but she is iconic, which I'd say matters more, especially because I consider Fire Emblem as a series to have no main character. She would make the most sense for a more timeless, less replacement prone roster, and there is some great move set potential. Sadly, she is beat out in the support department by several others, which brings her down.

Want - 79.5% - She's not Roy, but she takes a very close #2 spot in Fire Emblem characters. I supported her a bit before getting Awakening, and that grew afterwards. In fact, if Anna was the only Fire Emblem newcomer, I would be perfectly satisfied and happy.


Wolf Prediction - 93.6% - With Toon Link's reveal, I'm not sure if anyone is going to be cut at this rate. Wolf may be a bit closer to being cut, but he's quite likely to stay.

Nominations
Hades X2
Dark Matter X2
Dark Samus X1

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Anna: 4%
Anna is the Tingle of Fire Emblem. She shows up in nearly every game selling items, while having little effect on the plot, even when she's a playable character in Awakening. Since most FE games have different main characters, the chances of any supporting character from Fire Emblem are reduced drastically.

Want: 10%
She doesn't seem especially fun to play as.

Woof prediction: 85.25%

Nominate:
Klonoa x5

Concept suggest/nominate:
Likelihood of NO Namco Bandai rep x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Anna
Chance: 1% - Anna's status as a recurring character in Fire Emblem has been nothing more than an Easter egg, she has never been important to the series. Only Lords should be playable.
Want: 20% - I'm not a big fan.

Wolf prediction: 74%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Anna:
Chance: 3.55%

Want: 0.5%

Prediction for Wolf: 88.97%

Nominations:
Toad x4
Little Mac x1

 

[loganhogan]

Anna
chance 25% - I think she has the best chances if they were to pick a non lord because of her highly iconic and recurring status. The question is will they continue picking lords? If they do this hurts her chances and I believe she could be left out as an assist trophy, but if they decide to pick a character they feel can promote the series her recurring status can help her stand out.

want 100% - She's a unique and fun character and easily became one of my favorite Fire Emblem character. I would be very pleased if she were chosen.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Anna chance=16%

Anna want=20% Partly just because she is more interesting to look at than the other likely FE reps in terms of both her design, and the fact that I'd rather watch a woman on the screen if I don't have any connection to the character(which is true for me with all FE characters until I play one of the games). A lot of this want percentage also comes from the fact that she would likely be a spear-user, as that is her classes weapon(or however that works in FE).

Wolf prediction=89% People will overestimate his chances, because they are naive and think that cuts aren't likely, or worse yet, that pretending that they aren't will make it so.

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

How do we nominate concepts on here? If they take from our daily five, then I don't nominate any today, but if not, I nominate "gun or qiang user(staff or spear, but fast)."

 

[LoneKonWolf]

How do we nominate concepts on here? If they take from our daily five, then I don't nominate any today, but if not, I nominate "gun or qiang user(staff or spear, but fast)."

I believe they do take up our nominations count, though I could be incorrect. . . . . . .Groose!!!!

 

[jaytalks]

Anna
Likelihood: 20%
Contrary to popular belief, Anna is the closest character Fire Emblem has to a mascot. Similar to Slimes, Moogles (and Chocobo), and Mr. Saturns for Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, and Mother respectively, Anna is the most recurring character in Fire Emblem, appearing in everything in the main series except for Fire Emblem Gaiden. As previously stated, Sakurai is a fan of the series, and Anna has been around since the beginning. Her role as a playable character in the best selling game of the series definitely helps her chances. People need to remember that FE is a generational series and that whole main character first things might not apply if we extend beyond two reps. There are two other series that are this way: Pokemon and Mother. Pokemon has cross generational characters and not to mention all pokemon are still in the game even past their generation. Mother is an incredibly dormant series, so it doesn't really compare to FE. Anna is just important enough to her series to be a character. I also really want Tom Nook to face off against.
Want: 99%
Cool character, great design. What's not to like? Her moveset, if not solely based on Awakening, could be really diverse. And not a blue-haired sword user (necessarily).

Wolf Prediction: 84.68% no cuts mania since Toon Link arrived!

Nominations:
Ephraim x4
Phoenix Wright x 1

Oh, and Fire Emblem Music, for Anna:
Open for Business,FE13's Merchant Theme
Legendary Inheritance,from Five-Anna Firefight, originally from FE6
Fight to Tomorrow, from Five-Anna Firefight, originally from FE6
Confront the Past,from Apotheosis, originally from FE8
The Battle Must Be Won, from Apotheosis, originally from FE8

Sorry for taking your music, Ephraim. That's what you get for losing to Anna.

 

[Yams]

*cut*

So do you get 5 character noms and 5 concept noms, or one or the other? Also can you only rate the concepts that are listed in the OP?

 

[Zhadgon]

Anna
Likelihood: 12.5% I know the character is frequent but she need to pass first Lyn and I don´t see that happening.
Want: 60% The Fire Emblem reps are awesome to play as.

Wolf
Prediction: 65% If cuts are needed it should be him, Lucas and Lucario.

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Anna - 26% She's a very popular choice on almost all Smash sites, and she's the queen of supporting characters from FE. but is that enough?

predict Wolf 93%

Victini x5

 

[Xenigma]

While I'd rather push for rerates at the moment, I look forward to seeing some concepts get nominated. Should be a fun addition!

Anna - 1%
I find it very difficult to believe in our merchant friend, because despite being very unusual in that she's a recurring Fire Emblem character, she's still not really known as a fighter and is hardly a Fire Emblem icon despite her recurring nature. She's the kind of character you notice if you play a lot of Fire Emblem, but for anyone not so familiar with the series, she's nothing special. Considering the heavy competition already present from the franchise for very limited character slots, it seems extremely unlikely she pulls through. I'll give it a percentage just because I can imagine the scenario where this happens, but it seems extremely unlikely, certainly moreso than some here seem to think after long campaigning from Anna supporters.
Want - 10% - A curiosity, but not what I want from a Fire Emblem rep.

Wolf - 87.5%
He'll take some hits thanks to the bizarre situation of him and Falco both being Fox semi-clones. Should still do well because, well, he's Wolf.

Nominations
Tetra/Toon Zelda x5

 

[Yams]

Anna
Likelihood: 6.83% There are too many other FE characters who would take priority, but she isn't too far down the line. The thing is though, there probably won't be more than three reps, and the ideal line-up ATM seems to be Marth, Ike, and Chrom.
Want: 0% Not a fan.

Wolf: 90% Between him and Falco, I'd see him in only after Falco. That's just because Falco's been established as a veteran, and Wolf has not. However, if they're returning Toon Link, I doubt they'd give Wolf the ax.

Sukapon x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Anna
Chance: 8%
If Sakurai decides to instead represent Fire Emblem as a whole rather than by game then Anna is by far the best choice. In fact, if this was a case of using the true mascot of the game(which Anna somewhat is), she'd of been one of the first FE reps for sure. Sadly, she wasn't playable until Awakening, and although that's great she doesn't really have enough to make her stand out from every other unit in that game, especially over the three main leads; Chrom, Lucina and Robin.
Despite this, if Nintendo want a character that can represent all future titles then they could do a lot worse than Anna as their choice.

Want: 33%
If I'm honest I'd pick Anna over any other FE character for Smash other than Roy and Robin, seeing as she's a reoccuring face, and seeing as I like Toad so much, I obviously have a bit of a soft spot for shop keeps that eventually become playable. Admittedly a revamped Roy is far higher on my priority list, and Robin can use magic as well as swords putting him above Anna for my choice of Awakening rep.

Wolf prediction: 85.2%
Everyone thinks Wolf will be the first to be cut, despite him being different enough from the other two space animals. Go figure.

Nominations:
Hmmm? I won? I guess I can put five on Syrup, and five on Mallow...but...

Who is the prediction character for tomorrow? Ephraim?

....


Another Fire Emblem rep. Urgh. We just had two in a row and I reeeeaaallly don't feel like doing another so soon...

Alright time to tip the scales and make this a bit more interesting:

TOM NOOK X 10!

 

[Cheezey Bites]

As of now, they share the same nominations. And "no Brawl cuts" is an EXCELLENT idea. We'll see how things work with this... It's never been done in RTC before. I'm trying to recall who suggested it to me to give them massive credz... but it was before the DDoS and I've forgotten.

Question for Groose:
Can I make a vague nomination? Particularly 'Fatal Frame Protagonist', 'cos really, they're fairly interchangeable to the average consumer, it's the camera they wield that's iconic.

I don't know if it's my post you're talking about? Sadly the search function is a bit messed since the DDoS so I can't check if anyone else made a similar suggestion... after all I think I was still looking at characters, meaning most of those potential concepts you bought up yourself...


Also I'd like to note with yesterdays voting the chances of at least one FE:A protagonist (ie. the four we've already voted) 86.76%. multiply with respect to Roy and we have 92.11% chance.. pretty valid sounding in all.

Anyways,

Anna:

Chance: 6%
Re-occurrence does not equal significance. Ignoring the fact that she's been in every game (barr gaiden) she doesn't seem important enough, and given that most consumers would not be aware of her appearances in all but awakening (she's a shopkeeper, most people don't pay that much attention) it would be a curve ball to pick. Not impossible mind you, as Sakurai is a troll, but to pick Anna when the character slots are limited seems like a poor move to me.

Want: 25%
My go to number when I honestly don't care. If she's in I wouldn't be impressed or joyed, but neither would it be disappointing... she's very middle of the road.



Wolf: 95%
It's so nice to write a percentage in the nineties after all this time!


Noms:
Knuckles*5
(He'll be the one to set your heart free true!)


Question:
Would 'Different Final Smashes for the space animals' be a valid concept nomination?

 

[Groose]

Sorry about all of the concepts confusion... it's an unprecedented concept so we really don't have any groundwork before us. I'm just kind of making stuff up as we go along. Work with me now, though, because I'm sure these concepts will end up being a fun change to the norm of rating a ton of zeroes.

I'm really slammed with essays and stuff right now (I may not even have time to play POKEMON), but I'll try my best to answer your questions. I'll get back to you ASAP.

Question:
Would 'Different Final Smashes for the space animals' be a valid concept nomination?

Great. Feel free to vote on it tomorrow.

So do you get 5 character noms and 5 concept noms, or one or the other? Also can you only rate the concepts that are listed in the OP?

Five a day. They are shared between the two. "Concepts" function pretty much identically to renominations at this point. I say at this point because I'm still gathering feedback and finalizing the rules.

Feel free to suggest any other interesting concepts you can think of. "Decloned Ganondorf," "Unique Final Smashes for Star Fox Characters," and "No Cuts from Brawl Roster" are all excellent suggestions people have made today and I'll add them to the nominations list as soon as I can.

Please, though, keep them realistic. No "4 Mario Series Newcomers." Stuff about the game's modes is also open to suggestion... maybe something about characters appearing as bosses or bosses returning at all or somethihng?

How do we nominate concepts on here? If they take from our daily five, then I don't nominate any today, but if not, I nominate "gun or qiang user(staff or spear, but fast)."

Good suggestion. As of now we're only doing five a day for the both of them combined, but this may change if people would like it to.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Anna chance: 23.5% I believe she has a chance if Sakurai delves deeper into FE.
Anna want: 110%
Wolf Prediction: 81.5%
Nominations:
x5 Tom Nook
Is there time to nominate Tom Nook enough??

 

[Ephecus]

Anna

Chance: 8 %
She never plays a mayor role in the series, but is the only always reocurring character (barr Gaiden). She is not very iconic for non-FE gamers.

Want: 65 %
She could have a fun moveset.

Wolf Prediction: 96.5 %

Nominations:
5x Tom Nook

 

[BluePikmin11]

Hurrah! More Tom Nook voting!

 

[SmashShadow]

Anna: 8%
As recurring as she is, she's just not that notable.
Want: 50%
Honestly, I don't even care anymore who gets in from FE.

87%

 

[NickerBocker]

Anna: 13%
Shes actually recurring, but not a main character

want: 75%

Wolf: 87%

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

 

[ShinRPGamer]

Anna: 17%
I have no doubt she'll be in Smash in some matter be it a trophy or even a assist trophy. Her chances of being playable, not great, at all.
Want: 44% wouldn't mind her but overshadowed by more than a few characters that I would rather have.

Wolf: 77% I wouldn't his spot is certain but I wouldn't say he's likely to be cut either.

 

[DarkKry4]

Anna

Chance - 2%

Want - 13%

Wolf - 91%
I'm sure some Krystal fans will lower the obvious 100% he should be getting.

x5 Pauline (Donkey Kong)

 

[Louie G.]

ANNA

Chance: 5%
She's pretty iconic for Fire Emblem, and had a good part in Awakening, but I don't see it.

Want: 40%
She'd be cool. I would love to play as a trickster.

Wolf: 82%
I think a lot of people are betting on him staying, especially with Toon Link's reveal.

Noms: x5 Ridley

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Anna

Chance: 18% - A recurring Fire Emblem character but not a lord. I suppose she has a chance

Want: 60% - I was somewhat in different but after seeing Anna wink at me on the front page I...I had to give her an extra 5%! >.< And she seems like she can bring something new to the FE Smash table so another 5%.

Wolf Prediction: 81% - A returning vet, but people have their doubts about everyone returning.

Nominations:
Victini x5

 

[Groose]

Working on the music section now (big thanks to Toxicroaker there). I'll update the day later this evening.​

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As of tomorrow... I'll try to have an update. No guarantees... I may have to have a no update weekend. Why? ​

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Sorry guys. I always try to put Rate Their Chances first... but it's POKEMON! And I have two essays due Monday... but mainly POKEMON!​

 

[Toxicroaker]

Working on the music section now (big thanks to Toxicroaker there). I'll update the day later this evening.​

​

As of tomorrow... I'll try to have an update. No guarantees... I may have to have a no update weekend. Why? ​

​

​

​

Sorry guys. I always try to put Rate Their Chances first... but it's POKEMON! And I have two essays due Monday... but mainly POKEMON!​

Hey man... I don't care if you don't have an update. I can tell that this must be hard and I mean it is a weekend. But most of all POKE-FRIGGIN'-MON!!!

 

[SchAlternate]

Working on the music section now (big thanks to Toxicroaker there). I'll update the day later this evening.​

​

As of tomorrow... I'll try to have an update. No guarantees... I may have to have a no update weekend. Why? ​

​

​

​

Sorry guys. I always try to put Rate Their Chances first... but it's POKEMON! And I have two essays due Monday... but mainly POKEMON!​

FUN FACT: Everyone was going ape**** at the Roster Prediction Forum because almost everyone expected a Pokemon reveal today because of X&Y coming out. You can imagine the disappointment that ruled over the thread when we got WFT's butt.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

FUN FACT: Everyone was going ape**** at the Roster Prediction Forum because almost everyone expected a Pokemon reveal today because of X&Y coming out. You can imagine the disappointment that ruled over the thread when we got WFT's butt.

Hey, I was happy about that. I even posted about it in the WFT general thread.

 

[Groose]

Anna's Chance: 6%
Lots of people know fellow merchant Tom Nook, even if they haven't played Animal Crossing. Everyone knows fellow merchant Tingle, even if they haven't played Zelda. But Anna... she's really only recognizable among core fans of her series... she's always there, but she never has an overly major role. She's got a shot... but not much of one.

Anna Want: 33%
She'd be an interesting and unexpected Fire Emblem character... but yet another Fire Emblem character. Eh.

Wolf Prediction: 89.21%
Here comes the "no cuts" crowd.

Nominations
x5 Decloned Ganondorf (sounds like a good concept to me)

DAY OVER

GROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE ​

 

[BluePikmin11]

**** YEAH! TOM NOOK BEATED EPHRAIM!!!!!!

 

[Groose]

Anna (Fire Emblem)​

12.07% chance​

44.77% want​

WOW! INCREDIBLE! Anna is the most wanted newcomer we've rated since the DDoS, beating out Mach Rider by a fiftieth of a percent. She also did reasonably well in chance, too... falling midway between Robin (~15%) and Chromcina Team (~9%). Not a bad day for this merchant.

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She's good... but he's BETTAH! Play time is over, Star Fox! Wolf is cruising in on his Landmaster Wolfen today. Please rate Wolf in chance and want.​

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WARNING! CHALLENGER RE-APPROACHING! It's been a long time since we rated Lucario. We didn't even know about Mega Evolutions back then! How has the recent news and the release of X and Y affected his chances? Please rate Lucario in chance and want today. Heh, perfect timing for a Pokemon, right? Please keep X and Y spoilers off of this thread, though.​

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Tomorrow, we shall rate Eph----​

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Erm... it seems like Ephraim is incapacitated at the moment, so we'll rate Tom Nook instead tomorrow. Please predict how Tom Nook will fare in tomorrow's game. Toxicroaker wins the extra nominations today.​

 

[Seraphim.]

Today will be interesting, featuring two characters who seem to be on the chopping block.

Wolf

Chance: 91% I think Star Fox should stay the way it was in Brawl, besides his specials and Final Smash, Wolf is very different than Fox, change up his specials and FS and you're good to go.

Want: 75% I thought he was a cool character.

Lucario

Chance: 79% I think we will get the Pokemon characters from Brawl, plus Mewtwo. I think Pokemon can get 5 reps and Lucario is still pretty important in his own right but all eyes seem to be on Mewtwo at the moment.

Want: 75%

Tom Nook: 11%

Chrom x 5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Wolf: 87%
Want: 100%
Lucario: 85%
Want: 100%
Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Ridley x 1

 

[BluePikmin11]

Wolf chance: 90% Only if Wolf was low priority, he's still pretty important to the Starfox series.
Wolf Want: 10% Meh I don't like his playstyle.
Lucario Chance: 65% I still find Lucario can be cut, only if Pokemon stays at 4 reps. (The most likely Pokemon rep scenario would be Pikachu, Jigglypuff, PKMN Trainer, and Mewtwo)
Lucario Want: 10% Wasn't too fond of the moveset either.

Tom Nook Prediction: 18.7% There will be haters of course. But I still think it's possible to have 2 AC characters in this installment.

Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Wolf: 93% One of the most likely brawl vets to get cut but that's not saying much the way I see it.
Want: 90% Well I liked him.
Lucario: 95% I don't think his mega evolution actually means that much to his chances but **** he's getting in any way.
Want: 40% I've kind of started liking him less now =.= whatever makes #TeamLucario shut up.
Tom Nook Predictions: 6.8% any person with a brain would realize that Tom Nook probably lost his chance when villager got announced.
Nomination:
Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[Deleted member]

Wolf
Chance: 85%
While he was one of the last characters added in Brawl, I don't see him getting cut. I don't even think that Wolf or Falco are going to get cut and replaced by another Star Fox character like Krystal. He is Fox's rival and I think that his role in the franchise as that is more important than Krystal being Fox's love interest. I think his biggest enemy is time constraints as I don't think he will be high priority. Though, you'll never know since Toon Link is in SSB4.
Want: 100%
I like Falco as a character more, but I enjoy Wolf's moveset more. In fact, I rather have Wolf than Falco (though I don't want both to get cut). Wolf was a very unique character who I can't even classify as a clone (his moveset his vastly different and his specials behave differently; the only similarity is the Landmaster). I would be disappointed if he got cut.

Lucario
Chance: 85%
Lucario is pretty much the mascot of Generation IV. I think its Mega Evolution saves Lucario as it gives Lucario some relevancy and more popularity (besides, Mega Evolutions are given to popular Pokemon). If we were to rate Mewtwo though, I would give it 95% since it has more fan demand and it was featured in a movie recently while Lucario hasn't. Lucario has its fans though and it's a pretty popular Pokemon that I'm pretty sure Game Freak would push for its inclusion in SSB4. Like Wolf, I think its main issue would be time constraints as I find it to be low priority this time around.
Want: 20%
I wouldn't mind if Lucario got cut to be honest. I love Lucario as a Pokemon and it was really useful when I played through Platinum, but I hate how it was represented in Brawl. Lucario is a Fighting type Pokemon and I don't see any elements of it being a Fighting type in its moveset. It felt more of a Psychic type in Brawl to be honest (and that's what I thought when I never played Pokemon during Brawl's release). I also found its moveset to be very boring to be perfectly honest. Mewtwo's moveset makes sense and I found Mewtwo to be more fun in Melee.

Tom Nook Prediction: 11.34%
He does have a good chance since he is a very recognizable character within the gaming community.

Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Wold chance=85%

Wolf want=20% still more than Falco, unless the latter gets the cool sniper rifle I've seen him with in some pics.

Lucario chance=75%

Lucario want=10% and that's only if he gets an overhaul to make him more like a fighting type pokemon.

Tom Nook prediction=4%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Oh, and either I'm not a part of the gaming community, or Tom Nook is not that recognizable in it. I could have told you he was probably from Animal Crossing before coming on this forum, but it would probably have taken me a few seconds to remember the name of that game. He's more recognizable in the Nintendo fan(boy) community.