Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Groose]

BECAUSE THE GEMATSU LEAK IS SUCH A CONTROVERSIAL TOPIC, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM FLAME WARS AND HEAVY DEBATE. KEEP THINGS CIVIL.

Seconding this. Don't have a chance to read over everything from yesterday yet, but things look a bit chaotic from what I've seen so far. Don't take it any further than yesterday.

Also, give this guy a hand for updating for me. Vielen Dank, Brawler.

 

[Gunla]

^^^Thisthisthisthisthis On every single account. Glad to see such a cooperative team.

Seriously guys, if you wanna take it further, take it outside.
Or go to the Smash 4 Leaks Social Group.
Or a PM.
Or if you have a problem with another user, ignore them. Keep this thread chill, guys.

 

[Deleted member]

Gematsu leak and Savvy Stylist have been added to the Directory.
I suggest you look at the days of any of the Gematsu leak characters that you've rated!

This is a pretty major leak... and I am a bit drowsy. So, I will rate tomorrow.

Downgraded Veteran- 95%- META KNIGHT.

We're not rating if a character is getting nerfed! We are rating if a character will become unplayable in the next game, but is still in the game as an Assist Trophy, Poke Ball Pokemon, Trophy, or Sticker. Think of how Mewtwo was playable in Melee and became a trophy in Brawl!
(unless you think that Meta Knight is going to get cut...)

 

[Morbi]

The Sal Romano Leak: I have already shared my thoughts on it in that specific thread, so I will not get too specific.
Chance: 40%
Want: 0%

 

[Gunla]

(unless you think that Meta Knight is going to get cut...)

Oh. Musta misread that then.
Because MK ain't going nowhere.
Lemme flip that around...
PREDICTIONS:
VETERAN DOWNGRADE- 0.1%

Thanks for the heads up!

 

[chronomantic]

-Gematsu Leak
Chance 60 % - on one hand the tipper got Wii fit trainer, Villager and Greninja right (as vague as these last two were) but on the other it raises the question of why the reveals have been incomplete, specially when the second leak came hours before the Direct and not all of the supposedly leaked characters were revealed.
Want 80 % - I like it just about enough. I like the idea of Chorus Men (or Kids whatever) the most. What I don't want is for it to be the complete roster. Let's see.

-Savvy Stylist
Chance 1% - I don't think Sakurai is that desperate to fill up the alleged female quota to include this person.
Want 0% - absolutely not.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Gematsu Leak: 20% He said that Mii, "Animal Crossing Guy", Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, Little Mac, and Pac-Man would be shown at E3. Also the fact that he said "Animal Crossing Guy" and "Pokemon from X and Y" lowers his chances. Don't you think he would know who he was leaking?
Want: 0% I don't want the Chorus Men, but the fact that they are the only downside is pretty cool (I am now neutral to the Miis.) EDIT: WAIT A MINUTE! Shulk was leaked. Nope. I would take literally anyone over shulk. Give me the Savvy Stylist. Give me Omastar. Give me Pelly! Just don't give me Shulk. I would perfer Mewtwo and Pac-Man be left out than get Shulk.

Savvy Stylist: 0.1% Because Sukari
Want: 0% Because logic.

Veteran Downgrade: 7.32%
Micaiah: 4.37%

x5 Zip
EDIT: Seems that I got extra noms. Oh, well, I want to save them.

 

[andimidna]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 35%
Loses legitimacy due to the Miis. However I haven't ruled out the following as possibilities:
1) He has recieved both correct and incorrect information, with the Mii being the incorrect information (some sort of accident) and the rest of the leak being true
2) The idea of a Mii being playable has been assumed through a picture of a Mii fighting on a stage, and there is a separate "100%" customizable mode where you only fight as your Miis.

Both are pretty unlikely, but I'm not ruling them out.

Want:
+ Palutena
+ Shulk
o Pac-Man
o Chrom
o Chorus Men
- Miis
2 supported, 3 neutral, 1 negative
Evens out to about a 60% (although I'm not sure I even need to factor in Palutena, she's basically confirmed w/o the leak )


Saavvyy Styyylisttt!!!
HYPE.
Chance: a gazillion%
Err... wait...
As hilarious as she is, and as awesome as her moveset would be-
She's a joke character. So she has to be rated as such.
So... 5% :/

Want: 1000% YES.
The tears. The laughs. The moves.
I must support this <3

We're rating another great Nintendo girl... tomorrow?
Yes!
Sadly she'll be rated low as well, though:

Micaiah: 4.5%
Veteran Downgrade: 30% (Squirtle and Ivysaur will probably be trophies, right?)

x3 ANNA (Micaiah isn't the only Fire Emblem girl that needs a re-rate!)
x1 Bayonetta
Hi I'm x1 Daisy!

 

[The Light Music Club]

Gematsu Leak
Chance : 5% - I really don't feel like explaining myself over and over again
Want: 0% - Chrom over Micaiah, Anna, or Robin? Pacman over Snake, Layton or Chrono? Mii? I hate all of those ideas.

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 1% - Because she's eligible
Want: 55% - She adds another female to the roster which is a plus.

Predictions:
Veteran Downgrade : 44%
Micaiah (so glad it's time!) : 15%

Nominations:
Anna (Fire Emblem): x10 (Using extra nominations)

 

[Kalimdori]

Gematsu leak chance: 4% There are hundreds upon hundreds of leaks out there, there are bound to be a few out there that could get lucky. Wii Fit Trainer was a weird choice, but it made sense in hindsight, Wii Fit is an extremely successful franchise. It is entirely possible that someone could have figured that out beforehand. What makes me really doubt the leak is that he's gotten info wrong. He said there would be 6 characters instead of 3 at E3. And he hasn't been specific, Villager was Animal Crossing guy, Greninja was X and Y Pokemon, etc. Plus the Chorus Men sounds similarly vague. And in addition to all of that, if this guy was legitimate, I don't think it's feasibly possible to leak something from Nintendo and keep your life, not to mention getting to do it twice. (I'm not sure I'm even exaggerating about keeping your life)

So why the 4%? Why not 0%?

First off, I highly doubt that an employee of Sakurai's could be so uninformed as to not know the names of what he was working on, but it could possibly happen. Secondly, the leaker might not be an employee, having only seen pictures of what were leaked, and not known enough about them to name them. And thirdly, and I honestly think this is the most likely if it's legitimate, it's a authorized leak that's either intentionally being vague or feeding parital misinformation to spread discussion and interest in the game. (I could honestly see Sakurai approving that) Think of the Palutena leak, interest and controversy about the game exploded when those pictures appeared. Same is happening right now. Every time one of the "leaked" characters are revealed, (And honestly, other then WFT, XY Pokemon, and Chorus Men, everybody was calling for the others, a few are almost definitely in) it will spark further discussion.

Want: 3%

See my signature? There are multiple characters that I want in the game. Palutena is the only remaining one that the leak specifies. I'd like her to be in, but I consider her a shoe in, and I would rather other characters get in then those leaked. Furthermore there are several characters on the leak that I don't want in, Palutena isn't enough to fill up the roster with slots that I want to be taken by someone else.

Savvy Stylist: 0%

Not a chance. Relevance, popularity, recognizable, importance, demand, purpose, has none of the above.

Want: 0%

Dear god no!

Veteran downgrade: 30.3%
Squirtle and Ivysaur as trophies.

Micaiah: 3.7%
Would love it... but it won't happen

 

[Smasher 101]

The extra nominations post has been updated.

And I will post again when I am not playing Kirby Triple Deluxe.

 

[False Sense]

This ought to be fun.

Gematsu Leak Chance: 15%

Personally, I remain unconvinced of its legitimacy. Even if it managed to get a number of characters correct (some obvious, some not so much), that doesn't make it a legitimate source of information. And I have to say... So what if it managed to guess Wii Fit Trainer. While no one in their right mind would actually predict that character, it is very possible that people could think of her as a joke addition, or perhaps an unlikely prediction. Which happens to be exactly what the leaker claims it to be; an unlikely prediction. It seems perfectly plausible that the individual in question really did just get lucky with an unlikely prediction, and took advantage of a golden opportunity when it presented itself.

Aside from that, I personally find Miis to be an unlikely addition at this point (yeah, go ahead and burn me at the stake for making such a claim), and if Miis are not playable, the leak cannot be truly legitimate. Now, there is the possibility that the "leaker" only got partially correct information, but if that is the case, then everything else in the leak also becomes questionable.

It's not out of the question that it is a legitimate leak, but a lucky guesser was bound to turn up somewhere.

Gematsu Leak Want: 10%

Well, on the bright side, the legitimacy of the leak would mean the inclusion of some characters I would rather enjoy seeing, such as Pac-Man, Miis, Palutena, and Shulk. On the other hand, it would mean the addition of Chrom, who by being on the roster essentially rules out my second most desired newcomer, and Chorus Men, who just strike me as a very odd character choice to begin with. Also, I've come to rather dislike the leak simply because of how many people hold it in such high esteem and treat it like some sort of prophetic word. It's disgusting.

 

[andimidna]

I've been laughing at this picture for like 10 minutes.

There's so much hidden everywhere. And dem Rosalips.

But it would have been better if Little Mac or Wii Fit Trainer were there pointing to themselves.

 

[Kenith]

I'll rate tomorrow. Tired today. If I rate now, I'll forget important stuff...

 

[Glaciacott]

I love the image in the first post, but I just keep wondering about Samus having an argument with her suit ...

Gematsu Leak
Chance - 20%
I think there's a fair chance that this leak is correct, given the guesses they have made correcty. Particularly the fact they were pretty wild guesses. (Wii Fit Trainer and a Pokemon from X and Y at a time when most people were thinking Brawl + Mewtwo.)
However, my greatest consideration is the fact that whoever is making this leaks found out hours beforehand about one random character somehow, then knowing that that character would happen then proceeded to make another five, mostly educated guesses so that people would assume those would be correct as well and the leak was 100% legit. I seriously believe this to be the case ... mostly from the fact that that's exactly what I would do since then you're 1) leaking info while 2) trolling the whole community and keeping your position relatively safe from the infamous Nintendo ninjas.

Want - 80%
I love the leaked roster. Yes, it lacks hugely popular options like Ridley and K. Rool, but damn, I actually really like that roster, particularly the fact it brought the idea of a Rhythm Heaven rep to the forefront. If this leak were correct, I'd be really happy. Also, Rosalina implies that if this leak is correct, there's still more characters they didn't mention. So yea, this leak being the real thing would actually be awesome overall.
The one minor drawback though is the Mii, which I think would work much better as an AT using shirt color magic powers. But, frankly, considering how huge the Mii has been, as well as how much of a personality they have and the soon to be released Tomodachi Life looking pretty fun ... I'm frankly not as bothered by the Mii as before ... it at least doesn't bother me as much as other things ...

Savvy Stylist.
Chance - 0.1%
This is where you go when you're really really eager to just piss people off for no reason other than to be a jerk. It's not even a troll move, it's just being a jerk. I genuinely doubt Sakurai would do that given how much worry he has over cuts. And he knows that cutting a character for this would be an insult to everyone.

Want - 0%
I had a huge tirade in mind for this, but I'll simplify it and make it a lot nicer for the sake of avoiding arguments like Brawler610 and Groose asked.
Miis, Owain, Omastar, Sandbag ... all those things don't piss me off. Heck, Sakurai could include a lot of random characters and I'd go "oh, Sakurai" and probably be ok with it in a minute. I mean, that's how it was with Wii Fit Trainer, and now I play Wii Fit myself, really enjoy it and appreciate the character.
But this one is where I draw the line. A generic girly character whose sole reason to exist is to play dress up and put on make up is something that clashes as hard with this game to me as the idea of Master Chief in Smash. It doesn't fit and it makes no sense. If they really cared about female/girl gamers, they are expanding on far better female characters like Palutena, Zelda, WFT, Rosalina ... to go from them to a pastiche of narcissistic teen culture that's all about how you look and selfies and omgwtfbbq is an idea so repugnant I have been angry at it since it was suggested.
And seriously, I tried to take it with an open mind. I played the demo of the game, I looked up videos, read the thread and did a host of other things, but no matter what it did not stop being an awful idea. Yes, I'll admit the game is good and has its value for that niche of gamers or as entertainment on the side. I'd even pick it up if I didn't feel like I waste enough time dressing up my pokemon trainer and animal crossing villager already. BUT IT ADDS ABSO-FREAKING-LUTELY NOTHING TO SMASH, nor is it a franchise that could be considered an all-star Nintendo franchise.
(And, on a personal level, it would just be insulting because it would feel like that brand of idea that you KNOW would come from someone with the justification of "hey, let's include girls by including make up and dressing and fashion, because that's what girls are all about!" Much in the same way we're stuck with not just Metal Peach, but PINK GOLD PEACH, because pink you guys. And to clarify, I'm not saying there's something wrong with pink or girly fashion make up girls and all of that. It's perfectly fine, but as a female gamer I detest that games for girls keep on being reduced to this. Because for girls it's not about saving the world or adventuring, it's about ****ing fashion)
Ultimately, It doesn't stop being an idea that's nothing but a huge middle finger to the community and the only appeal is the whole "hey, wouldn't it be funny if ... " mentality that frankly doesn't justify wasting the scant amount of time we have before E3 on this abomination.
Again, sorry if I come off as insulting but I just feel really strongly against this. And really, this is the short version of my tirade. You cannot IMAGINE how much stuff I had to cut out for the sake of being a bit less belligerent.

Predictions
Veteran Downgrade - 53%
Squirtle and Ivy are highly likely downgrades.
Micaiah - 6%
Why are we still suggesting random Fire Emblem characters? We all know they're not going to make it. Most of them stopped being relevant or even known by Brawl. So really, what's the point? Are people just suggesting their favorite Fire Emblem characters for the lulz? Sigh, sorry, I think I'm still in a bitter mood from Savvy Stylist.

Nominations
x5 NFC Smash Trophies
I'd appreciate help with this one, given how recent events hint at Nintendo expanding on the NFC concept. Don't want this to be another Balloon Fight stage stituation ...

 

[ultimatekoopa]

Leak, here is what I think of the leak
1) The leak said that 6 characters would be revealed in the previous E3, he got 3 characters right but the half was wrong, wii fit trainer is the only thing that validates him, villager was requested and it would make sense to announce him in the e3 due to new leaf, megaman was not a hard choice and just like all the previous new 3rd parties, it wold make sense to reveal him in the e3, Little Mac was a easy guess, everyone and their mother were expecting him, I have some doubts of he mii's, pacman is not hard to guess, he has been expected since it was announced that Namco was helping to develop the game, I highly doubt Chorus men will get in, they are not the important characters in their games, Shulk, Palutena, Chrom, etc are not hard to guess either
Chance 45% I'm not giving this guy any credit for greninja as he was vague, I could make a leak and say "a new kid icarus, fire emblem, mario, zelda etc might or might not get a new character" and I would be right
Want 60% I want Shulk and Palutena, I don't care about Chrom but I don't like the idea of chorus men

 

[pupNapoleon]

You have the wrong leak.

i DO (indeed)

 

[colder_than_ice]

The leak
Chance: 30% - Almost everyone, myself included, thought the Brawl leak was fake. We all turned out to be wrong and I learned to be more open minded to leaks. I'll admit that issues like the "6 characters at E3" fiasco and chorus men bring the score down quite a bit, but I don't think it's enough to write off the whole thing.
Want: 60% - Two of my most wanted newcomers (Chrom and Shulk) are on this leak so I'd be happy to lend my support. It's a little underwhelming though.

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 1% - Only because Wii Fit Trainer.
Want: 51% - She would certainly be an amusing choice.

Veteran downgrade prediction: 57%
Micaiah prediction: 4%

Nominations: Captain Toad x5

 

[Leafeon523]

I'll save everyone a Gematsu rant.
15% in chance and want.
Style Savy:
Sakurai's choices have been so insane lately that I give her 2%. Yet I actually plan o giving one of my nominations a lower score.
Want: 75%n
I will laugh so hard if this character is included. I will cry a little on the inside, but I will laugh.
predictions:
Veteran Downgrade: 39% (We didn't see a young link tropy now did we?)
Micaiah: 5.7%
Noms:
Frederick AT: x1
Anna x1
NFC trophiesx1
Fawfulx2
Beef x0 (Leafeon523 is beefless)

 

[Xenigma]

Rant time!

Gematsu Leak(s) - 25%
I'm not really sure how to put this as a numeric chance, but 25% feels appropriate for a solid "maybe". Regulars of this thread may well be aware that I have traditionally believed in the first leak but not in the second. The old E3 leak felt too good to be a mere prediction: Villager was a pretty easy guess, even if they did get the name wrong, but Wii Fit Trainer was something virtually no one saw coming, and third party Mega Man wasn't exactly a given either regardless of how many people wanted him. Considering the rest of the list was fairly sensible and not having all 6 be revealed at E3 was a reasonable change of plans from the original report, it felt like this was a legitimate leak. Having Little Mac revealed later, while not surprising regardless of the leak, seemed to confirm its validity. Rosalina's surprise reveal may have shook some beliefs in the leak, but it remained a pretty convincing case.

Then came the second leak and, well, it's a lot easier to doubt. For one, it came the day of the Smash Direct, and considering the last leak was right before E3, it brings up the question of whether these are legitimate leaks or just someone with access to press kits trying to dupe everyone. Two, while it did technically manage to predict Greninja, it did so using the incredibly vague and far safer "X/Y Pokemon" tag that virtually any Smash fan could guess considering each previous Smash has included a Pokemon newcomer from the most recently released generation, and it seems very strange that the leak couldn't give the name of a character being revealed later that same day. Three, it includes the bizarre idea of the Chorus Men, which, beyond being an even more unusual choice than WFT, seems to fly in the face of Sakurai's statement that they were struggling with implementing team characters, an idea accentuated by the removal of transformations. Finally, there's the simple fact that these leaks are simply names of newcomers and includes none of the major news items that have since come to light. Nothing on veterans, nothing on the removal of transformations, nothing on items, nothing on stages, nothing on Pokemon/ATs, nothing on the online modes, nothing on Smash Run...basically, nothing else that might help prove/disprove the leak. Most of the choices are very safe and the leak can't really be disproven unless one of them is shown as an AT, which begs the question of why should we believe it in the first place? Because the first leak seems legitimate? I don't think that's good enough, and having the second leak be so shaky actually raises doubt that the first one is legitimate by extension.

So where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with one leak that still has a solid chance of proving true, and one that is far less certain. Could this be the real deal? I don't know. I could see it panning out, but at the moment it feels quite a bit more likely that this is ultimately a fake, albeit a fairly clever one. The fact that an established journalist is putting his faith in it helps somewhat, and, true or not, I sincerely believe Sal is just relaying the information from a source he trusts and isn't out to dupe everyone (though I'm sure he enjoys the extra attention). For now, that's enough to give it a solid chance of coming true, but not enough to make it especially likely.

Want - 25% - It's not a bad list at all, but it also precludes many of my favorite candidates like Isaac, Lucina, and Tetra from joining the fight, so I can't say I'm a fan.

Savvy Stylist - 0%
I've already written enough after that Gematsu rant, so I'll be brief: there's no way this will happen.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Just a general question or two about leaks:

1- Has any leak ever proven real, for the past game or later proven true for this one? I guess Lucario in the last...

2- Sakurai said outright he plans all of his reveals, did he not? If so, shouldn't a leak be correct on the reveal time?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Evidence for Mewtwo:

1. Mewtwo is one of the most prominent Pokemon; he is obviously the most prevalent legendary to appear in the franchise lore as well. Fun fact, he is the first Pokemon to appear in the Pokemon opening.

2. This is an aspect of notion one, but Mewtwo has made the most major appearances in Pokemon movies, he has appeared as a main character in 2. The most recent being: Genesect the Legend Awakened which was released right around when many believe the roster to be finalized.

3. Mewtwo's Mega Evolution was the first to be revealed, this alludes to his marketing importance, Gamefreak clearly understands that he is a fan-favorite that incites hype.

4. Mewtwo is the most requested character for Smash in general; requests don't yield much on their own, but they are a good indicator of popularity.

5. Sakurai has actually addressed the prospect of playable Mewtwo, he was one of the only characters Sakurai has ever gone out of his way to mention. We might discern this as interest in the character.

6. Speaking of interest in the character, Mewtwo was planned for every single iteration of Smash, obviously outside circumstances prevented two of those appearances; nevertheless, his demand is ever so present.

7. Mewtwo was almost finished in Brawl according to the code, as such; we should objectively treat him as though he was a Melee veteran. He is just as safe as any other Melee veteran. Mewtwo was to be included from Melee to Brawl, there was LITERALLY nothing going for him, but he was still planned. As of current, from Brawl to Smash 4, he is the overt marketing Pokemon.

8. Pokemon Origins; it was evidence for solo Charizard, it is evidence for Mewtwo. Mewtwo was a big part of this promotional special, speaking about specials, he was present in three. This is more than any other Pokemon.

9. He returns as a primary legendary in Pokemon X and Y; people used to argue that Lucario's Mega Evolution didn't matter, but it obviously did. Mewtwo is in his traditional pose in a cave. Something iconic to his character in regards to the game. This promotes the best-selling 3DS title. One might argue that X and Y are already represented through Greninja and Mega Evolutions. But Mewtwo is still an aspect of the game.

10. No other Pokemon is as important and unique; there are no more ideal choices (aside from Meowth, who was de-confirmed). He is the only missing piece, a piece that was never intended to be missing. The priority list is not stagnant. Believe it or not, things change in 6 years. Clearly, for Mewtwo, things have changed for the better. His staggering importance is just as observable as it was when he was in his prime.

11. The Greninja trailer was not the proverbial “nail in the coffin,” it is actually evidence in favor of Mewtwo. Greninja was missing his webbed appendages and his pelvic fin, it is apparent that the trailer was intended to be ambiguous and incite suspicions about Mewtwo.

12. He follows Sakurai’s arbitrary criteria. The character would obviously correlate to more sales, the character is vastly unique, the character contributes to the game’s balance, and the character fits into the Smash Brothers Universe. It is established that he closely follows this criteria as he was intended for every title; present in one, and he is clearly the definitive example of Sakurai’s criteria.

Hey is it alright if i copy and paste this to the mewtwo thread they will love this

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Gematsu Leak: 100%

The leak is real, folks. All I hear is a bunch of complaints brought up that remind me of the Pokebeach leak. People thought they had it figured out. Everyone thought it was fake, but a few rational people saw some things that stood out and ended up being correct.

In the end, the leak was a real leak.

Just like this one.

Want: 80%

Eh. It's Okay.


Style Savy: **** No. 0% for both.

Just a general question or two about leaks:

1- Has any leak ever proven real, for the past game or later proven true for this one? I guess Lucario in the last...

2- Sakurai said outright he plans all of his reveals, did he not? If so, shouldn't a leak be correct on the reveal time?

There were a number of leaks that were true.

The entire Brawl roster was leaked early and every stage barring 75m was leaked.

 

[Deleted member]

Just a general question or two about leaks:

1- Has any leak ever proven real, for the past game or later proven true for this one? I guess Lucario in the last...

2- Sakurai said outright he plans all of his reveals, did he not? If so, shouldn't a leak be correct on the reveal time?

1. During pre-Brawl, there was a person who leaked the entire roster. People didn't initially believe him due to some circumstances (R.O.B., no Ridley, Wolf over Krystal, etc.), but it turned out to be real. So yes, there have been leaks during Brawl that have proven to be true. This is the one that I find the most notable.

2. Plans change. Although Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii weren't revealed at E3, Sakurai or Nintendo hypothetically could be saving them for later as E3 might have not been the best time. This turned out to be true in the case for Little Mac since he was revealed in February. Any of the six remaining characters could be revealed at E3. If that happens, we might get closer to a truth...

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Gematsu leak 98%

Well i think all of them is happening.

The 2% is might be a different rhythm heaven character .

And the correct part is a Pokemon from x and y, because that was before the Greninja trailer.

Want 100%

I would love to see them playable, besides i'm sure theres going to be more newcomers that are not on that list, that are going to be playable.



And for the sytlist both zero

For reason

 

[Pacack]

Oh, Gematsu Leak...

Chance: 55%
I'm leaning towards it being real, but I could see only the first batch being correct. I do find it highly unlikely that this guy doesn't have some inside info.

Want:

...ugh. I'm so torn. On one hand, it would confirm Pac-Man 100%...on the other, Chrom over Robin, Chorus Kids, and only Palutena for me to look forward to otherwise...yuck.

70%?

I'd be bitter...but the rest of the roster could be ten clones of Link and I wouldn't care as long as Pac-Man's in.

I'll get to the Savvy Stylist later.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Gematsu Leaklihood: 25%
Want: 100%
rhythm heaven dawg

Savvy Stylist Likelihood: 2%
Want: 35%

Veteran Downgrade: 48.45%
Micaiah: 5.85%

Rhythm Heaven Character Rerate x5

 

[Plain Yogurt]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 70% This leak is super-safe...save for the chorus men. Rhythm Heaven seems more like a universe you make a stage out of to me. I suppose I feel it weird to get all these nameless avatar-esque characters in the roster too. Naming a specific Rhythm Heaven character would make me far less skeptical.

Want: It depends:
If we're assuming the leak is a chunk of the newcomers-50% I'm expecting a bunch of these characters already. Unless Sakurai blows my mind with their movesets, I'm pretty indifferent to all of them.

If we're assuming the leak is all of the newcomers-5% Cripes what a predictable newcomer list. Save for WFT, Chorus Men and to a lesser extent Greninja I coulda guessed all of those, and none of the aforementioned three interest me much beyond shock value. Plus Nintendo Wars gets passed up again. I want mah Andy. Oh, and it'll kinda kill my hype to walk into every newcomer trailer from now on knowing that there's a list of possible choices. I like the characters, but I don't want this to be the final list.

Savvy Stylist:
Chance: 1% If you're a Nintendo character there's a chance...

Want: 0% Pass. There's WTF character and then there's this.

 

[Zhadgon]

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 45.45%
Want: 15%
Ugh... the only way I would like this leak to be real is that is incomplete and there are still three characters missing: Ridley, King K. Rool and a forgotten character (Takamaru, Mach Rider, Donbe and Hikari or Harry).

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 5%
Want: 3%
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh... NO!

.n_n.

 

[FalKoopa]

NOOO.... I missed yesterday's rate. My perfect attendance is gone.

Ah well,
Gematsu leak: 33.33%
Not really sure what to make of it.

Want: 0%
Chorus Kids are a no-go, sorry. Not fond of Pac-Man either.

Savvy Stylist: 0%
I vaguely know about him, and he doesn't look like he's Smash worthy.

Want: 0%
Nope nope nope.

 

[Erimir]

you worded your post extremely pretentiously and even implied that slots might be a determinate factor.

I feel that slots are a load of crap

I made a model that predicts the number of slots a franchise gets based on its lifetime sales (on a logarithmic scale) and the number of slots the franchise had in the previous iteration. The correlation is about 77%.

The amount of variation you see is, however, shows that those aren't the only factors. It also tends to underestimate the larger series... Probably because of that time when Mario dropped from 5 reps to 4 (that's the one at the top where it predicted 6 slots). . It's clear that decisions are not based purely on the characters, but some consideration is given to sales, which implies slots for franchises. So I think it's useful to think in terms of slots... given that you keep in mind that there's quite a bit of wiggle room, especially for the larger series (and the fact that slots tend to increase). So more accurately, it's probably better to think of a range which is determined mostly by series popularity and previous representation. But can be broken for various reasons (Earthbound is an example of a series getting a disproportionate number of reps).

But thinking that Mewtwo has 0% chance because Pokemon's slots are all taken already is silly.

 

[Kenith]

I vaguely know about him, and he doesn't look like he's Smash worthy.

"She".

 

[Deleted member]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 100%

As someone who has been intensely following this leak, I can say with certainly that this leak is true. No ifs, ands, or buts. Rather than go through all the reasons to explain why it is true, I'll allow everyone to ask me questions on why they doubt the leak. I dare you to put up a legitimate counterargument.

Want: 70%

Mega Man saves it from deterring me away from the game leak should it be true and that there are no more additions left. There's going to be at least one more, though, and my bets are all on Mewtwo at this point. We could see more as well, so characters like K. Rool and a retro rep aren't out of the running yet.

 

[NintenRob]

Leak
Chance: 90%
One does not simply guess Wii Fit Traner. Villager and Megaman were decent guesses as well.
And no matter how much people try and say "X and Y pokemon is too vague", people also forget that the majority of people out there were so certain that it would be the Brawl 4 + Mewtwo that anything that had anything else is fake. Greninja was probably a late addition with a placeholder name of Pokemon from X and Y.

Want: 80%
Very solid roster imo, its got some popular choices in there, its got some weird choices in there and we would see a much larger variety series represented.


Savvy
Chance: 1%....... for now.

Want: 60%
I like weird, Having her in Smash Bros would be hilarious and I would be all for Wii Fit Trainer starting a tradition of adding characters you would never expect from very VERY casual games who don't really fight or do anything.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: 100%
Want: 60%

 

[Koopaul]

I'm a skeptic. Show me a miracle and I'll still question it.

Leak
Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 2%

Nominations: Barbara the Bat x5

Yeah I was told I could keep nominating her. So I will. Slowly.

 

[Spinosaurus]

I really see no reason NOT to believe the leak is right for now.
Strictly speaking for myself.

 

[Xhampi]

Gematsu leak :
Chance : 70%
On one hand this leak have been vague for some characters :
-Animal Crossing guy could have been anyone : Villager, Tom Nook, KK Slider or Mr Resseti
-Pokemon from X & Y could have been : A new trainer (then people could have just said that it was a typo, just like some people argue that Chorus Men stand for Marshal), or even Mewtwo who both appear in X & Y but also get a mega evolution (and then you would just have to said that he had only see Mega Mewtwo and that would still be correct as a Pokemon from X & Y)

-And it was also wrong on Little Mac, Pacman & Miis being revealed at E3 2013

But on the other hand :
-It predicted Wii Fit Trainer, an animal crossing rep and Megaman appearing at E3 2013
-No character on the leak have been discomfirmed yet (and aside from Chorus Men, any character left are pretty likely to be playable)
-I read on Gamefaqs that Sal had legit leaks in the past (is it true ?)

As for neutral I would say that he didn't predicted Rosalina but the fact is that his list of prediction wasn't complete yet (did Sal even said that he was done with the newcommers now ?)

So right now I stand on the "it's probably true but I rather stay carefull about it" side.

Want : 0%
No Ridley, no DK newcommer, no villain, no heavyweight ? Maybe Sal will give us a few more newcommers before E3 but as it stand right now, no, just no thank you !


I Don't know enough about the Savy Stylist and her series to give an objective rate (right now she just look like an horrible girl stereotype to me : clothes, make-up and selfies.....seriously =/ ).

Nomination
Not really interested to rate anything in particular but since someone asked for help, sure, why not ?
NFC smash trophies X5

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

The leak
Chance: 100% he got wii fit trainer and 4 others right. Wii fit trainer! Out of all Nintendo characters.
Want: 90% - Like the leaked characters. They are all perfect for smash.

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 35% Nintendo advertises this game series a lot for thier female crowd. I wouldn't be surprised if they throw them a bone and include her.
Want: 99% She would certainly be an amusing choice and the best character ever! More cool then wii fit trainer.

Veteran downgrade prediction: 17%
Micaiah prediction: 4%

Nominations: Lysandre(Pokemon) x5

 

[Camc10]

Leak
Chance: 45%
Want:50%
Chorus men is my only gripe with the leak and I really don't want miis or pacman as the Namco rep but there acceptable. If this isn't the whole newcomer list my want may be higher or lower.

Savvy Stylist
Chance:1.2%
No relevance
Want: 25%
Another female for the roster

Vet downgrade: 28%
Micaiah: 5%

Nomination:
Tropical Resort for 3ds x5