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[Erimir]

Let's get the easy one out of the way...

Ryu Hayabusa

His situation reminds me of Snake and Mega Man. All three of them are important to Nintendo's early console history (being big games on the NES) and vice versa. However, while Mega Man maintained a significant presence on Nintendo platforms throughout his history (having multiple games on all Nintendo handhelds*, and some presence on all Nintendo home consoles), Snake went to be a primarily Sony character. Ryu Hayabusa went on hiatus for a decade, and since his return he's been solidly multi-platform (and the Xbox and Playstation seem to be higher priority than Nintendo consoles).

Basically, he was Nintendo relevant, and now he's not really. The difference between him and Snake? Kojima being friends with Sakurai. Without that, there's no way Snake would've ever been put in. And likewise, without intervention from an interested party, I see no chance for Ryu. He also hasn't remained as iconic as Mega Man, Sonic or Pac-Man, IMO.

*Mega Man doesn't have multiple titles on the 3DS unless you count virtual console... but there hasn't been an original Mega Man title since it launched either.

Ryu chances: 0.1%

Ryu want: 5%
Meh.

Prof Layton

Well, I'd agree if he were first party then he'd be a shoo-in. That is, however, true for almost any high-selling 3rd party character. Bomberman, Simon Belmont, Ryu Hayabusa, a Tales rep, Rayman, Crash Bandicoot, Crono, an FF rep, a DQ rep, etc. all would be shoo-ins if they were Nintendo characters/series. But they're not.

I highly doubt we're getting more than four 3rd-party reps. And Pac-Man and Snake are the most likely candidates for those spots. Even if Snake is out, others like Bomberman could take his spot. I'd personally like to see Simon Belmont or Bomberman more than most any of the other 3rd parties. But none of them seem likely.

I will grant, however, that Layton has unusually strong ties to Nintendo for a 3rd-party character which really helps. And he has some move potential... But I just don't see anyone but Snake and Pac-Man as likely. I'll grant him... "possible".

Layton chances: 4%
Layon want: 45%
Mostly indifferent.

Predictions
Halcandra stage - 20%
I dunno anything about this. But it seems like Sakurai has stuck mostly to classic Kirby for his stages, not just going with the most recent games...
Mewtwo - 79%
Why the rerate already? Nothing has changed. I'm assuming this is people upset about his score falling, so I'm going to predict a slight rebound for him.

Mario Kart 8 Stage Want: Abstain
My want would be entirely dependent upon which track they select, and I have no idea which one they would. If it does happen, fingers crossed for Sunshine Airport.

Sunshine Airport seems unlikely since we already have Pilotwings. Buuut I think most of the new courses could work. Except Bowser's Castle which doesn't need to be a Mario Kart stage. N64 Rainbow Road is also pretty great looking.

 

[chronomantic]

-Prof Layton
Chance 40% - Sakurai said he won't add too many 3rd party characters but we don't know how much that would represent exactly. His series is a NDS exclusive having sold a ridiculous amount of copies, so that's another big plus.
Want 70 % - not particularly a fan because I initially didn't know how a character from a puzzle game would work out but that slot machine gun and those mad fencing skills sure look great. Maybe they could incorporate the puzzle aspect in his moveset somehow.

-Ryu
Chance 0% - please. There are far more deserving, recognizable and requested 3rd party characters than him. His aesthetic/general vibe wouldn't mesh well with the current roster anyway.
Want 0% - we already have two ninjas.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Professor Layton
Chance- 8%
Has strong ties to Nintendo and is relatively popular... but third party is still third party. I wouldn't quite consider him "legendary," either (no insult to the series. He would be a shoe-in if he was owned by Nintendo)
Want- 65%
I don't actively want him, but he would actually be kinda cool.

Ryu
Chance- 2%
No.
Want- 2%
No.

Crono x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Layton: 18%
Down from 34, he's super popular, would help expand to another demographic, and has made it publicly known that he wants to be in... But he's third party, and not the most obvious... But Level-5 are a growing name in the industry... But one that isn't that big yet... It's balanced, but balanced low.

Want: 50%
I think he'd be great for sales (third to Slime and Pac-Man as third parties go), but I'm not sure he'd be so great in smash... he can fight, but he's not really a fighting character, and the moves won't be such great fan-service as for the others... I'm torn... He wouldn't hype me, but I'd be happy with him.


Hayabusa: 6%
He's doing really poorly, but that's expected, I don't think he's likely, just that he should be considered.
Ultimately his only chance is is the TK Family want stronger ties with Nintendo, and if they request him I could see Sakurai going for it, as he is pretty iconic... but not enough to beat out some of the potential competition. TK are growing closer to Nintendo (Zelda Musou and Fatal Frame are proof of this), but also making enough multi-plats, and now promote the PS exclusive Gust as big as their first party games... He's got much more of a shot than I think people give him credit, but that's not to say much.

Want: 55%
He'd not fit perfectly as is, but I think he'd need less editing to fit that Snake did, and both be more true to his character and fit better afterwards... the real reason it's so high is because of what it could mean for the TKFamily... closer ties to Nintendo, more TK games on Wii U, and not having to buy a Sony console just so I can play Atelier games? Yes please! If it was a merger I would give it a 100%, but as is it's just business, and wouldn't neccesarily mean all that... but it would be nice all the same.


Halcandra: 24%
Specific stages are hard to predict.

Mewtwo: 83%
Hoenn remakes are trumped by fan demand, and Greninja shows X and Y to be important too.



Slime*5
(So close to the rating and this news comes out, this hurts my score as I thought they were going to reveal it at E3 [though they still might], but may well sway a few others... I might have to round up some of the other Dragon Quest news for when we rate him)

 

[Kalimdori]

Professor Layton Chance: 10%
Layton is a fantastic character. He has so much potential for Smash, after seeing what Capcom did with Phoenix Wright, I would love to see what Sakurai could do with Layton. But there is one thing that will always stand in Layton's way, and that is the fact that he is a 3rd party character. He has strong ties to Nintendo, yeah, but he has so much competition standing in his way. First off there is Pacman, then you've got other potential candidates like Snake, Simon, Black Mage, Rayman, Bomberman, Slime... I think there is just to much standing in his way.

Want: 80%
I love puzzle games, and Layton's games are no exception. He could be such a cool character in Smash Bros, but I would like other 3rd party characters over him, which is why he is only 80%

Ryu Chance: 0%
I don't see Ryu as having any chance whatsoever. If Layton is unlikely then Ryu is downright impossible. Along with I said against Layton, Ryu isn't important to Nintendo, which means, in addition to the characters that Layton has to go through, he has to get through the unlikely characters as well (Layton, Bayonetta, etc.)

Ryu Want: 0%
We already have a badass Ninja in this game, and he's a frog, making him infinitely better.

Halcandra Stage Predictions: 30%
Could happen, might not, I have no idea.
Mewtwo Predictions: 75%
I laugh at those who think his chances are low.

 

[Curious Villager]

You may be wondering right about now: why would I want him if he's another boring sword user?

If people have a problem with Layton being "yet another boring sword user" then he can always become....

A Lead-Pipe user!

Actually considering the nature of Layton's playstyle consisting of random contraptions or puzzles, I guess I would kinda prefer him to use a Lead-Pipe instead of a sword, hey no one else uses a lead pipe in Smash! Those are warp pipes Mario and Luigi come out of in their intro don't get smart with me!

Anyway, thanks for summoning me Groose, guess I'll give him a quick score now that I just can.

So Professor Layton.

Chance 15%
Well as much as I'd hate to give him such a low chance despite being a big supporter, I also kinda have to make sure that I wouldn't be too biased on him, a few things Layton has going for him is that his company has expressed interest to see him become a part of the playable cast in Smash Bros, he's also one of the most wanted third parties in Europe, even Nintendo is quite fond of the good gentleman.

However, with that said, his third party status is really the only thing holding him back from this game, else I would have given him a higher chance rating as otherwise, the series has been very successful, it was the only series that gave the 3DS a boost in sales in Japan and it has been very closely associated with Nintendo despite being third party.

Want 100%
As the creator of the Professor Layton support thread and my most wanted newcomer, not even 100% is enough to show how much I want Layton to become a part of the Super Smash Bros series. I've started off with Curious Village (The first game in the series) and loved it enough to actively follow the series onward up to the Professor Layton vs Phoenix Wright crossover.

It contains some very imaginative and fun puzzles with a very unique and lovely storyline sprinkled with a very lovable and colourful cast of characters and music along with it. It's definitely a series I feel fully deserves to be a part of the Super Smash Bros series and it is also one of the few third party series that really feels so incredibly close to Nintendo that it almost feels like it actually belongs as a part of it, if it wasn't for its third party status holding it back, this series definitely deserves it's representation in Nintendo's All-Star fighter!

Ryu
Chance 0%

I'm not seeing him now that we got our Capcom character in Megaman.

Disregard that, I still don't really see him happening though.

Want 5%

I suppose he'd be pretty neat, but I'm not really interested in him.

Halcandra stage 32%
Mewtwo 78%

Nominations
Medusa x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Professor Layton:
Chances: 8%
Want: 30%

-Ryu Hayabusa:
Chances: 1%
Want: 10%

-Nominations: Isaac X5

 

[Leafeon523]

Ryu Habasha:
Chance: .5%
We have so many other potential 3rd part reps, sorry Ryu.
Want:20
I prefer Takamaru.
Layton:
Chance: 3%
My quotation isn't working, but this is what Groose said... "his series seems to be either ending or taking a radically new direction in which he is no longer a big part."
Want:Please don't hurt me 10%
I have a couple of reasons:
-Remember Pheonix Wright in UmvC3? He was a fun, original character... at the very bottom of the tier list. I could easily see this happening to Layton.
-With him no longer starring in his series, it's almost impossible for him to return in any other smash games. Plus, I don't think his series deserves representation when will still have other unrepresented mildly successful Nintendo Ips like Advance Wars and Golden Sun.
-There's a different Level-5 rep I'd like, but I would be laughed to Halcandara and back if I brought them up.
Predictions:
Halcandara: 21%
Mewtwo: 72%

Nominations:
Style Savy x5 (cmon Andiminda! We are so close to rating her!)

 

[Miffa]

Ryu Habasha:
Chance: 1%
not a 3rd party i see coming.
Want: 1%
No thanks
Layton:
Chance: 1%- I can not see this one either.
Want: 50% I;m indifferent.

 

[Smasher 101]

Layton's chances: 5% - I think he's among the more likely third parties, but I still doubt he'd get in over Pac-Man or even Snake, so he still gets a low score.
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Ryu Hayabusa: 0.5% - And he is not among the more likely third parties.
Want: 0% - Nah.

Halcandra prediction: 24.63%
Mewtwo prediction: 80.23%

Jill x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Prof. Layton:
Chance: 2%
Want: 5%
Never played his game and I know almost nothing about him. He seems to have a decent amount of support.

Ryu:
Chance: 0.001%
Want: 85%
Honestly, I think he'd be pretty cool.

Predictions:
Halcandra: 18.2%
Mewtwo: 78.5%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[Pazzo.]

Looking back on it, my rating of the good Professor was a little high... I think I'll drop his chances down to 20%.

 

[FalKoopa]

Prof. Layton: 10%
If he were a Nintendo character, he would have been a shoo-in, honestly. Being a 3rd party is his biggest obstacle.
His company, Level 5 is quite loyal to Nintendo, his creator is good friends with Sakurai, and his games have been really successful on the DS and 3DS, though he's not quite legendary yet.

Want: 90%
While he isn't a part of my signature, I've been a silent supporter for a long time. @ Curious Villager 's thread introduced me to him and his games, and I really owe him my gratitude for it. I got hooked to his games immediately, and have played Curious Village and the Elysian box.

Ryu Hayabusa: 0%
Eh. He's far from legendary, and others characters already have covered his niche which almost kills his chances of getting in.

Want: 0%
While I don't want to generalize, we do have enough characters filling the ninja niche. Some variety is appreciated.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ryu Hayabusa: 0%
Eh. I have a hard time seeing any more Capcom characters getting in.

Ryu
Chance 0%

I'm not seeing him now that we got our Capcom character in Megaman.

Ryu Hayabusa is a Tecmo Koei character, not Capcom...

 

[Capybara Gaming]

@ Groose - thread title needs an update.

Professor Hershey's Chocolate Layton:
Chance: 5% - Third Party character who was Snake, Pac-Man, and a few others standing between him and Smash.
Want: 75% - Would be pretty neat but not at the expense of Pac-Man.

Prof. Layton: 10%
Ryu Hayabusa: 0%
Eh. I have a hard time seeing any more Capcom characters getting in.

HAHAHAHAHAHA.
He's a Tecmo Character, Fal.

Chance: 1% - He's pretty popular and shows a classic game, but he's not exactly a legend in Nintendo standards, but rather Capcom's.
Want: 100% - Wanted him since I first played Smash.

Predictions:
Halcandra (Who is this?) - 10.00%
Mewtwo - 86.98%

Nominations:
Tails x5]

 

[FalKoopa]

Ryu Hayabusa is a Tecmo Koei character, not Capcom...

HAHAHAHAHAHA.
He's a Tecmo character, Fal

Thanks for pointing that out. Changed my post accordingly.

And don't laugh at me, Keybladeguy.

 

[Deleted member]

Halcandra (Who is this?) - 10.00%

Halcandra is an area in Kirby's Return to Dream Land. It's home to the final two levels in the game; Egg Engines and Dangerous Dinner.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Thanks for pointing that out. Changed my post accordingly.

And don't laugh at me, Keybladeguy.

It's called sarcastic laughter, Fal.

Halcandra is an area in Kirby's Return to Dream Land. It's home to the final two levels in the game; Egg Engines and Dangerous Dinner.

Ah, Derpy Hooves moment right there. I forgot all about that world. Still, doesn't seem likely.

 

[Curious Villager]

Ryu Hayabusa is a Tecmo Koei character, not Capcom...

Oh I see, I thought it was the Street Fighter one, guess I'll change my post then.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Layton
Chance: 6%
Want: 45%

Ryu
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 5%

Nomz: Lanky Kong x5

Predictions
Mewtwo: 64.3%
Halcandra: 14.5%

 

[Sid-cada]

Prof. Layaton

Chance - 2.75% - My gut tells me I should have lowered his score, but I think it's about right. This was the compromise.

Want - 60% - Not changing. He's practically a Nintendo Character in my eyes, so at least he gets my approval.


Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 0% - Ninja Gaiden has largely moved on from Nintendo. He may have once been a Nintendo character, but no longer. With no known information on creators wanting him appearing in-game, well, he's worse off than Snake pre-brawl.

Want - 0% - We got enough ninjas on our hands.


Predictions

Halcandra Stage - 32.45% - A random number between Nutty Noon and Cookie Country.

Mewtwo - 85.34% - Some recovery, but not complete.

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[Kenith]

Professor Layton:

Chance: 10%. I see subsequent third-parties unlikely. He really should be in at this point. He's not Nintendo, but he's very closely tied to it, and is very popular with Nintendo fans (and evidently Smash fans). But, alas, he is still not owned by Nintendo, and thus has a huge hurdle to cross.

Want: 40%. I don't really care about him (mostly because I haven't played his games) but the 40% comes from his really passionate fans I've seen who want him in this game.

Ryu Hayabusa:

Chance: 3%. Would be 0% but he gets a bonus for Sakurai's insanity. Ryu Hayabusa, while very cool, has little association with Nintendo nowadays, despite getting his start on the NES. He has as much change as any Tecmo character at this point, and frankly, if he was included, I'm sure we would've learned about it by now.

Want: 10%. Don't care, we have enough ninjas as is.

------------------ Predictions ------------------

Mewtwo: 85%.
Halcandra: 12%.

------------------------------------------------------

Nominations:
x3 Anna "I make deep cuts!"
x2 Style Saavy

 

[IvanQuote]

Prof. Layton:

Chance & Want: Abstain

Never played a single game, but the series does look interesting. Depending on how I like Ace Attorney x Layton puzzle gameplay I may go into the series. Since the game is apparently very story based, I will not look up anything that may spoil and therefore cannot give a fair judgement.

Ryu:

Chance: 2%

He's 3rd party right? In that case, he has hard competition from a Namco rep and Snake. Also, GreNINJA and Sheik to an extent make him kind of irrelevant.

Want: 0%

I'd rather else one than another ninja.

Nom: veteran downgrade x5

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Well, looks like it's time to rate Mr. Hershey! Let's see what we have so far.....

GASP!
These ratings are so low!
Even you @ Curious Villager ?

No need to fear! The King of Somewhat-Justified Overrates is here!


Prof. Hershey (hat is made of milk chocolate) Chance: 30%
Yes, I know he is 3rd Party, but hear me out.
He is from the best selling DS-exclusive series. He is really popular, and he has hell of a lot of moveset potential (coin gun, lead pipe, puzzles=mind games).
Now any of these would justify a Nintendo character as a completely deserving newcomer, who has a strong chance for Smash.
But unfortunately, Hershey here isn't a Ninty character.

OR IS HE!?!?!
DUN DUN DUUUUUUUN!!!

Even though Layton isn't legally a Nintendo character, he is sure as hell one spiritually.

The reason Smash isn't flooded with 3rd Party characters is because Sakurai wants the roster to be mainly Nintendo characters. If there were too many non-Nintendo characters, it wouldn't feel like Smash!
That's why we only have super important 3rd parties like Sonic, Mega Man, and possibly Pac-Man (and maybe Snake again). They stick out from the rest.

Layton on the other hand, fits in perfectly well with the rest of the Nintendo cast. He is the only 3rd party character that doesn't fall into the reason why Sakurai is iffy on adding them, the fact that they will make Smash feel non-Nintendo.

Layton feels like a Nintendo character. He wouldn't make Smash feel non-Nintendo.

Sakurai would most likely pay whatever he needed to pay for the rights, and drop him in the middle of the Nintendo roster, rather than off to the side with the other 3rd parties.

This, combine with his popularity and moveset potential, justifies a 30% chance.


Layton Want: 75%
One of my most wanted characters.
I'd friggin' love the slot-machine gun (I just realized the pun behind that ). Not to mention him being a lead-pipe weilder (without blue hair!).


Ryu Hayabusa Chance: 0.1%
The exact opposite of Hershey. He would not feel like a Nintendo character. He is in the same tier as all other 3rd parties. Therefore he has to compete with Pac-Man, Bomberman, and others.
In a word, nope.

Ryu Hayabusa Want: 0%
#2violentforsmash4


Halacandra Stage Prediction: 10%
Eh. Cookie Country is likelier.

Mewtwo Prediction: 85%
#wiithinkmewtwowouldbeanicecharactertobeinsupersmashbrothersforwiiuand3ds


Omnomnominations: x5 Fawful (HELP ME WITH THIS PEOPLE!)

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Layton: 10%. Competing with Pac and Snake. But his connection with Nintendo makes him possible.
Want: 0%. No.
Ryu: 0%. Greninja stole his thunder. Not to mention no good connection, no popularity, and isn't even semi-legendary. Capcom's Ryu has more of everything.
Want: 0%. No.
Krystal X5
Halacandra: 23.5%
Mewtwo: 67.3%

 

[Autumn ♫]

The Professor
Chance:35%
Definitely the best choice for a 5th 3rd party character due to his popularity, moveset potential and his importance to Nintendo. (If you want to see his importance, MegaBidoof sums it up pretty well)

Want:65%
Definitely wouldn't mind seeing him.

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance:0%
With him not being a very large 3rd party character for Nintendo, barely having any Nintendo games, he's not likely at all.

Want:0%
Actually had to look this guy up. Seems like he'd fit better in Mortal Kombat than anything else.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Urgh, ran out of time. Will have to do a short rating today.

Ryu
Chance: 0.5%
Not quite at that legendary status that I expect the third parties to be at this stage.

Want: 0%
Not legendary enough and a third party.

Prof. Layton
Chance: 8%
Third party. His saving grace is how integrated his name is with Nintendo.

Want: 80%
Being British I've decided to make an exception for Layton. Because nationalism.

Also because Layton is a large enough 'Nintendo' star to probably warrant it without looking TOO odd a choice.

Today's rating was short and lame. Apologies.

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Professor Layton Chance: 10%
Professor Layton Want: 55%

Professor Layton is probably one of the most likely third parties for Smash due to his history on the DS. I don't think he's too terribly likely, but he does have a decent shot of getting in. And it would be rather silly seeing him fight against a bunch of more battle-ready opponents. His moveset would be fairly unique, as he doesn't necessarily have to use his rapier, so I wouldn't exactly mind him getting in.

Ryu Hayabusa Chance: 1%
Ryu Hayabusa Want: 75%

Ryu's probably not going to get into Smash Bros any time soon, but I would love to see Ninja Gaiden represented some how. The original Ninja Gaiden is one of my favorite games on the NES, and I feel as though Ryu would be a pretty cool character. However, he's third party, and doesn't show up that much on Nintendo consoles anymore. I would like to see him in, though.

Predictions:
Halcandra: 7.6%
Mewtwo: 82.4%

Nominations: Crono x5

 

[False Sense]

I have to say, I find the "Layton is a basically a Nintendo character because he feels like a Nintendo character" argument to be rather flimsy. I could just as easily say that characters like Sonic, Mega Man, or Pac-Man feel like Nintendo characters. Nintendo games come in all sorts of different styles and genres, so something from one Nintendo series may look completely different compared to something from another Nintendo series. Just look at the contrast between characters like Kirby or Pikachu to characters like Samus or Marth. So saying that other third parties we have "stick out" while Layton wouldn't is, I think, an individual opinion being passed off as a fact in favor of Layton.

When it comes to third-party characters, I don't think what matters is whether or not the characters "feel" like Nintendo characters. What matters is their significance as video game characters, something that Layton doesn't have much of.

 

[BluePikmin11]

He feels so Nintendo because his games started and are continuing to be published by Nintendo outside of Japan.
Layton has lots of significance to Nintendo for the past 7 years, just because he's not old enough like Pac-Man or Snake, doesn't mean it stops his inclusion.

 

[False Sense]

He feels so Nintendo because his games started and are continuing to be published by Nintendo outside of Japan.
Layton has lots of significance to Nintendo for the past 7 years, just because he's not old enough like Pac-Man or Snake, doesn't mean it stops his inclusion.

But lots of third party games have been published entirely, or almost entirely by Nintendo. I don't exactly see people clamoring for Phoenix Wright to be in Smash.

While him not being as old as characters like Pac-Man doesn't prevent his inclusion on its own, it does have negative effects on it. As a result of being recent, he's much less recognizable or well known as many other potential third party candidates. And on that note, why Professor Layton over other third party options? Why not something like a Square Enix representative, for example? Would the general Smash fans be satisfied knowing that a third party slot went to such a minor third party character like Layton?

 

[LoneKonWolf]

professor Layton - 5%
no matter how interesting you are, no matter how much ties you have to Nintendo, if you are third party, your at the bottom of the pack,
I can only see 4 third parties in, 2 are confirmed (mega man and sonic) one is highly likely (pac-man) and one is a veteran (snake) there's your four, his saving grace is that he's practically a Nintendo character under a different name, but even then its a long shot, though if snake (or pacman) get deconfirmed it'll, while low, significantly increase his chance, but even then he'll have competition from other third parties to deal with (Bomberman comes to mind)
want - 80%
I feel like smash needs a gentleman, while he isn't one of my most wanted, I would greatly like his inclusion
Ryu - 0%
do. . . do I even need to explain?
want - 0%
heck no
halcanda stage - 16.45%
its in the vast amounts of stages
mewtwo - 76.83%
I don't think much will change for him
nominations:
Mr. resettiX5
groose does got a point. . . .

 

[BluePikmin11]

But lots of third party games have been published entirely, or almost entirely by Nintendo. I don't exactly see people clamoring for Phoenix Wright to be in Smash.

While him not being as old as characters like Pac-Man doesn't prevent his inclusion on its own, it does have negative effects on it. As a result of being recent, he's much less recognizable or well known as many other potential third party candidates. And on that note, why Professor Layton over other third party options? Why not something like a Square Enix representative, for example? Would the general Smash fans be satisfied knowing that a third party slot went to such a minor third party character like Layton?

Being slight less recognizable than other iconic videogame characters shouldn't really matter for Layton, I think it's about how much of a relationship and contribution the franchise has with Nintendo, not because he's iconic as Lara Croft or Simon Belmont for, that's why he should get in over other third parties. Similar to Pokemon in a sense because of it's success even though it is second party.
As for Enix representatives, other Square representatives don't have much strong ties with Nintendo aside from Super Mario RPG's Geno, which is just one game collaborated by Square and Nintendo.

 

[False Sense]

Being less recognizable shouldn't really matter for Layton, I think it's about how much of a relationship and contribution the franchise has with Nintendo, not because he's iconic as Lara Croft or Simon Belmont for, that's why he should get in over other third parties. Similar to Pokemon in a sense because of it's success even though it is second party.
As for Enix representatives, other Square representatives don't have much strong ties with Nintendo aside from Super Mario RPG's Geno, which is just one game collaborated by Square and Nintendo.

Pokemon being second party is vastly different than Layton being third party. And Layton is nowhere near the level of Pokemon, or even other third-party characters we already have.

And while Square Enix reps don't have as strong ties to Nintendo, they'd certainly be more recognizable and well received by the general public. Something from Final Fantasy, for example, would make a lot of sense considering the sheer size and success of the series, much like the success of the Sonic series, Mega Man series, etc. And besides, doesn't Snake show that ties with Nintendo only need to barely exist for a character to get in?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Pokemon being second party is vastly different than Layton being third party. And Layton is nowhere near the level of Pokemon, or even other third-party characters we already have.

And while Square Enix reps don't have as strong ties to Nintendo, they'd certainly be more recognizable and well received by the general public. Something from Final Fantasy, for example, would make a lot of sense considering the sheer size and success of the series, much like the success of the Sonic series, Mega Man series, etc. And besides, doesn't Snake show that ties with Nintendo only need to barely exist for a character to get in?

It was just an example of a series that has had a noticeable amount of popularity and relationship with Nintendo that was considered by Sakurai. Layton could be that "Pokemon" series that gets chosen for more representation because of it.

It would make sense sure, but few are really wanting Black Mage as playable for Smash games with no noticeable demand. Most people would rather go for characters they know would make them fully assure buy Smash with characters like Sonic and Megaman. And there is a considerable amount of demand for Layton, mostly coming from Europe, much like how Ridley is the most demanded in the west. Snake being in Smash shows that if you are friends with Sakurai, it could be considered, I see his inclusion as an interesting opportunity for Sakurai to try bringing third parties in Brawl for the first time to see how it plays out.

 

[False Sense]

It was just an example of a series that has had a noticeable amount of popularity and relationship with Nintendo that was considered by Sakurai. Layton could be that "Pokemon" series that gets chosen for more representation because of it.

It would make sense sure, but few are really wanting Black Mage as playable for Smash games with no noticeable demand. Most people would rather go for characters they know would make them fully assure buy Smash with characters like Sonic and Megaman. And there is a considerable amount of demand for Layton, mostly coming from Europe, much like how Ridley is the most demanded in the west. Snake being in Smash shows that if you are friends with Sakurai, it could be considered, I see his inclusion as an interesting opportunity for Sakurai to try bringing third parties in Brawl for the first time to see how it plays out.

Black Mage isn't the only option though. And even then, it was only an example of a series that would make sense to get a representative in Smash. But I do agree that they would rather go for characters they know would make tons of people want to buy Smash. And I don't think that's Layton.

Also, I'd question the use of Ridley as a comparison, considering his fan demand here in the West may not have been enough to get him playable.

And bringing third party characters in Smash to see how it plays out? Like some sort of experiment? I don't think third party characters are the best things to go testing new grounds with.

 

[Glaciacott]

I'll start with the simple one

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance - 0.5%
Never over Pac-Man. It would be a weird and surprising decision.

Want - 0%
Nope.

Layton
Chance - 5%
He's still third party. That alone makes his entrance to Smash something of a rarity. Both Mega Man and Pac Man are leagues ahead in terms of icon status over Layton, and with them we have three third parties already. That's too much third party

Want - 55%
Slightly higher than indifference because it's Layton. If any character looks Nintendo, it's Layton, and his role in supporting the handheld market is definitely notable. However, my interest in keeping third parties to just what we have + Pac Man means I don't have that much desire for the guy.

All things considered though, I definitely WISH that Layton was Nintendo. If he was Nintendo, I'd be on the Layton bandwagon pretty much immediately, because he seriously just fits in very well. Likewise, if he was confirmed I'd be pretty darn happy, even though in the back of my head I'd be a bit sad at either no Pac-Man or the fact that a first-party Nintendo character lost their chance in return. It also would help my want if there weren't soooo many Nintendo characters I still want to see playable.

Predictions
Halcandra - 26%
I have no idea what to expect of these ratings
Mewtwo - 84%
... again?

btw, I saw someone mention that they'd nominate x character later on but before E3, and I wanted to point out: We're at the threshold of E3 everyone. I think it's wise to consider who it is you're nominating when E3 is soo close, since if you're on your own nominating that character chances are it will take some time to raise them enough for them to be rated.
And with that said, time to abandon interest in Masked Dedede and start nominating a concept I think has promise (I don't think I've seen this concept come up)

x5 NFC Smash Trophies
(as in tiny figurines based on Smash Brothers a la Skylanders.)

 

[DustyPumpkin]

Prof Layton - 30%
Professor Layton could really bring some interesting things with him, Fencer, Slot Machine Gunand all that lovely epic violin music, For the longest time I didn't actually realize he was third party, He'd be a lot more likely if he wasn't but at the same time that stuff that happened on twitter was pretty weird.
You've seen that right, Official Layton Twitter talking about smash bros at some point?

Want- 45%

Ryu Haiaboopa - 1%

The guy from Ninja Gaiden? No I see him very unlikely, there's a lot more better character to have before even considering him.

Want - -1%

Nominating - Savvy Stylist x5

Did I do that Right?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Black Mage isn't the only option though. And even then, it was only an example of a series that would make sense to get a representative in Smash. But I do agree that they would rather go for characters they know would make tons of people want to buy Smash. And I don't think that's Layton.

Also, I'd question the use of Ridley as a comparison, considering his fan demand here in the West may not have been enough to get him playable.

And bringing third party characters in Smash to see how it plays out? Like some sort of experiment? I don't think third party characters are the best things to go testing new grounds with.

Ridley and Layton are examples of being one of the most requested for Smash 4 in their specific region, also you know it takes more than just demand to be playable there's multiple things taken into account when considering a character for the roster.
And of course since the "third party experiment" is already over anyways, now that he's bringing in third parties again in Smash, Sakurai would probably be putting more serious thought into choosing third parties this time around, like hypothetically Sakurai would want a third-party character that has at least a good relationship and strong ties with Nintendo.

 

[Deleted member]

Did I do that Right?

Yes! Don't forget that you can predict a character's ratings for more nominations!
Also, you have 5 nominations that you can use, not just 3.