Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Weeman]

I don't see much point in a cooldown day, leaks ain't going anywhere, and time is gold.
I think we should just ignore them during the ratings at least.

 

[Gunla]

@ Groose ... the title of this video explains my thoughts on what we should do.

As a user, not a mod, I'm going to strongly recommend a cooldown to think this over. No hasty decisions, yeah?

 

[Deleted member]

I am fine with any course of action, whether it would be resuming things as normal or having to do a ton of re-rates.
In the end, I prefer the emergency days since we have a lot of ground to cover.

 

[Leafeon523]

I think a cooldown day is necessary before we do any other rating, but I think we should just head into pre-launch mode from there.

 

[Groose]

@ Groose ... the title of this video explains my thoughts on what we should do.

As a user, not a mod, I'm going to strongly recommend a cooldown to think this over. No hasty decisions, yeah?

I'm against the emergency ratings as well, but I personally prefer the option of resuming regularly scheduled planning. Ratings stuff that isn't related to the leak shouldn't cause such an uproar, methinks.

 

[Weeman]

As long as we don't rate the Duck Hunt Dog i think we'll be fine.

 

[Burigu]

I'm against the emergency ratings as well, but I personally prefer the option of resuming regularly scheduled planning. Ratings stuff that isn't related to the leak shouldn't cause such an uproar, methinks.

So the idea behind emergency ratings are to increase the scores of already confirmed characters? I don't see the need to do that rating Duck Hunt Dog 100%, Bowser Jr. 100% etc what is the purpose of doing this? we wouldn't been predicting anymore, we can do that and rank everything with a 100% or think on something we might still rate that aren't related to the leak itself

 

[The Light Music Club]

Can we rate the ideas that aren't characters? Like stages, music, and AT's? *cough* Micaiah AT *cough*

 

[Gunla]

@ Groose
It shouldn't cause an uproar. But it always can, I'm just being cautious as a moderator (and if it does I can use the Infraction Railgun). I voted to cooldown, but you can do whatever. It's been a hectic day for me, obviously. (Also I really wanted to make a pun, apologies )

Some of my Suggestions:

• Don't Rate Shulk or Bowser Jr. Waste of time, they'll get near-100%s.
• Maybe Rate DHD. He's a viable topic, but rate him early on, he might get near-100%s.
• Maybe Rate Dark Pit, similar reasons as DHD.
• Rate DK Newcomer (Dixie & K Rool) and Ridley. Obvious reasons.
• Rate Zelda Newcomer (Impa?) and Chorus Men. These too.
• Maybe Rate Veterans (Wolf, Lucas, Snake, Ivy, Squirtle, Ice Climbers)
• Maybe Rate the Leak Itself. We might get split scores, however.
• BWD doesn't need to be rated again, in my opinion. I meant that rating when I started nominating him for it to be the last time, and for a good reason.
• If we get a Direct pre-release, do the usual for that.
• Other Ratings, for things such as Stage Lists, Satisfactions, etc. Things that have no relevance to what's been leaked.
• Rate Mewtwo and Mach Rider.

Short Version:
Rate things not shown in the leaks, but said by other ones character-wise. IE: M2, Mach, Dixie, Impa, etc.

 

[Erimir]

I think we should have emergency ratings and then continue from there.

But instead of rating everything totally separately we should do it a little differently.

I don't see much of a point in rating whether the leak is real nor the things with the most evidence (Shulk, Bowser Jr, Ganondorf in and being similar to Brawl Ganondorf). But we could rate whether the secondary aspects are true. Namely, are Duck Hunt, Dr. Mario and Dark Pit playable and/or are Ice Climbers/Lucas/Wolf/Snake cut? That seems less necessary though... we got those veterans wrong, etc.

But we should do a want rating for the leak (not satisfaction, since we don't have full reveals yet) and then we do a rating for "Are there more characters?" Basically, similar to what Glaciacott said.

If the ratings for there being additional characters are high enough... Then we maybe we should do the characters mentioned by the leaker as being possible additional newcomers/returnees:

Mewtwo
Ridley
Dixie Kong
Impa
Mach Rider
Chorus Kids(?)

But those are the only emergency ratings I think we should do. Not redoing every character under the sun (sorry Bandana Dee, Krystal, K Rool, et al).

(Honestly, if we get the five on that list, I'll be pretty pleased with the roster, aside from missing a few I like such as K Rool and cutting a couple characters I liked from Brawl).

 

[TechPowah]

I say, in this time of crisis, we keep on, but while ignoring rating characters covered by the leak altogether, and only do characters not covered (like say, King Boo) or stages and concepts only. There's no way we are all gonna be objective if we were to rate them, so I say emergency cooldown, and then continue as normal but nixing leak-related characters from the game for now.

 

[andimidna]

• Don't Rate Shulk or Bowser Jr. Waste of time, they'll get near-100%s.

So, what? We just put them in as 100% in the Results? Or leave them with scores that don't reflect the community's opinions? (Bowser Jr is rated pretty lowly right now, this specifically would bug me, leaving this alone)
How is rating them a waste of time if we're going to have a cooldown day?
And what about want?
There's still want. Even if people expect it, the want will be mixed.
If their days will be 100% agreed on that they're 100% in, why can't that be our cooldown day?
If what your worried about is scores close to 100%, well, the only thing that can happen now is more leaks, making them likelier. And we can't choose when they happen. If we rate them now, it can happen the day after, if we rate them next week, it can happen the day after, and so on. There's no reason to lose a day, they aren't going anywhere. We have already made our opinions, a day won't change this and make it not a controversial topic either.

My choices for a list of re-rates:
Day 315: Bowser Jr and Shulk (Video Leaks)
Day 316: Duck Hunt Dog, Dark Pit, and Dr. Mario (Remaining 3 in the ERSB Leak)
Day 317: Mewtwo, Ridley, and Dixie Kong (Ninka Leak)
Day 318: Impa and Mach Rider (Ninka Leak extended)
Day 319: Ice Climbers, Lucas, Wolf, and Snake (Veterans that might be cut now)
Day 320: Possibly Jigglypuff, R.O.B., and any other veterans on the leak that have less than around a 95% currently (if we rated them as locks, it's kind of unnecessary, even though their leaked locks now) (Veterans that are in)
Day 321: King K Rool, Isaac, and Chorus Men (Major contenders not part of any of the leaks)

It could be done in a week. And Groose, if you are too busy now that you're just starting college, you have a full community here filled with many people willing to help you out. I just wanted to bring this up because it would be difficult on days with 2,3+ to update.
I think these are good groupings, even though I was excited to finally re-rate Impa... and to re-rate Duck Hunt Dog. But taking out some of those veterans, not doing the last day due to it being too depressing, and ordering it more randomly or by series would be totally fine too. It's just a suggestion.

 

[Burigu]

So, what? We just put them in as 100% in the Results? Or leave them with scores that don't reflect the community's opinions? (Bowser Jr is rated pretty lowly right now, this specifically would bug me, leaving this alone)
How is rating them a waste of time if we're going to have a cooldown day?
And what about want?

The thing I see here is why rerate them if they are 100% in, this would be like rerating Little Mac, Rosalina, Palutena, Greninja, Pacman, Mii Fighters, Lucina and Robin the day after they were revealed.

At a time the comunity opinion about them could have been wrong, and the confirmation disproove the perception of the comunity as in WE WERE WRONG, this time is the same Bowser Jr and Shulk are 100% in no doubts why rerate them and give them 100% chance when we already know they are in. The last rerate they got should be enough to see if we were right or wrong. Isn't this part of the fun in this thread? to see where we were right or wrong.

Let's pretend both Jr and Shulk got a official reveal, why rerate them if they are in the game confimed already?

Rerating confirmed characters in a chance aspect is pretty pointless Greninja didn't even get a rate and we didn't bother in giving him one on confirmation, the want score could be given in the satisfaction anyway.

 

[Xenigma]

Personally, I don't think we should be rating any characters on that CSS. Sure, maybe it looks a bit silly now that we left Bowser Jr. at 13.81% or that we didn't rate Dr. Mario as his own character at all, but any emergency ratings now when they're virtually confirmed are almost as silly as rating a character right after their official announcement. So we were wrong on a few characters, that's the point of the game. If you really want some emergency ratings, maybe go after the characters in text leaks that may fill the final 4-5 slots along with other top picks, but don't bother with ratings that will be purely 90-100% scores.

EDIT: Aaaand pretty much 'd

 

[Glaciacott]

Rating Shulk and Bowser Jr. Seriously feels silly to me. At this point with them it's just best to wait for the official release and then do satisfaction.

whatever rating they get after this is obviously extremely affected by the leak and not a real prediction as much as "hey look how right we were." Makes the whole thing meaningless.

Huh, double 'd

 

[Deleted member]

I'm on the same boat as everyone else; I don't think that we should re-rate Shulk and Bowser Jr.
We pretty much have video evidence that they are in and the general consensus is that they are playable. What would it make is a day full of 100%s across the board in chance.
I say that perhaps we should re-rate Duck Hunt Dog, Dr. Mario, and Dark Pit along with other characters.

 

[andimidna]

The thing I see here is why rerate them if they are 100% in, this would be like rerating Little Mac, Rosalina, Palutena, Greninja, Pacman, Mii Fighters, Lucina and Robin the day after they were revealed.

At a time the comunity opinion about them could have been wrong, and the confirmation disproove the perception of the comunity as in WE WERE WRONG, this time is the same Bowser Jr and Shulk are 100% in no doubts why rerate them and give them 100% chance when we alredy know they are in. The last rerate they got should be enough to see if we were right or wrong. Isn't this part of the fun in this thread? to see where we were right or wrong.

Let's pretend both Jr and Shulk got a official reveal, why rerate them if they are in the game confimed already?

Rerating confirmed characters in a chance aspect is pretty pointless Greninja didn't even get a rate and we didn't bother in giving him one on confirmation, the want score could be given in the satisfaction anyway.

So we should mark them as confirmed...?
Because that's what we did with those other characters.
And if we can't because it's a different situation, then that comparison isn't 100% fitting

 

[Burigu]

So we should mark them as confirmed...?
Because that's what we did with those other characters.
And if we can't because it's a different situation, then that comparison isn't 100% fitting

The difference is that they were revealed by an unofficial source therefore Smashboards might want to move them onto their own section once OFFICIAL confirmation happens.

The fact they got revealed like other characters is the same situation for the purposes of this game. We already know they are here

But I have to say some of your rating ideas sound interesting

 

[andimidna]

The difference is that they were revealed by an unofficial source therefore Smashboards might want to move them onto their own section once OFFICIAL confirmation happens.

The fact they got revealed like other characters is the same situation for the purposes of this game. We already know they are here

But I have to say some of your rating ideas sound interesting

Ok, that seems understandable. Putting them on hold. Counting ourselves wrong about Bowser Jr, but right about Shulk, without giving an official status on them in the game.
But I still think we should rate the others included in the leaks ASAP or the same could happen to them. Seeing as the pictures came from these videos seen today, I doubt that leaker has more videos. But I can't say I doubt someone else will get their hands on the game soon.
Since it's late, it can't be started now, and this could be counted as our cooldown, but tomorrow afternoon seems like a good time for Duck Hunt Dog, Dark Pit, and Dr. Mario imo

 

[Pacack]

I'm going to be a little controversial.

I am not sure of the leak's legitimacy and think it may actually just be a well done fake that's been planned out for some time now. And I am not the only one that thinks so. (Note the 70 retweets and 90 favorites.)

I personally know at least five people on these forums that would give the leak less than 100%. Even if it's ultimately extremely close to 100%, not rating Shulk and Bowser Jr. is taking an incredibly biased stance that ignores the beliefs of many on these boards and undermines the very concept of this game.

Yes, I'll still rate Shulk and Bowser Jr.'s likelihood at this point to be higher than 85%. Yes, I'm still probably going to rate the leak lower than most here. But I stand by my philosophy that nothing is guaranteed until it's guaranteed, and want my opinion to be represented.

 

[Glaciacott]

I'm going to be a little controversial.

I am not sure of the leak's legitimacy and think it may actually just be a well done fake that's been planned out for some time now. And I am not the only one that thinks so. (Note the 70 retweets and 90 favorites.)

I personally know at least five people on these forums that would give the leak less than 100%. Even if it's ultimately extremely close to 100%, not rating Shulk and Bowser Jr. is taking an incredibly biased stance that ignores the beliefs of many on these boards and undermines the very concept of this game.
Yes, I'll still rate Shulk and Bowser Jr.'s likelihood at this point to be higher than 85%. Yes, I'm still probably going to rate the leak lower than most here. But I stand by my philosophy that nothing is guaranteed until it's guaranteed, and want my opinion to be represented.

Doesn't mean that rating them right now won't give stupidly absurd ratings that aren't representative of anything but the leak itself.

And in that case, might as well just rate the leak itself.

Also, is there anyone who can point me in the direction of any remaining shreds of videos or collected information? By the time I got off work all the videos were down and everyone just knows everything while I'm kind of completely running on assumptions of wtf just happened today.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Here's my ten cents. Do more than 95% of you agree with marking Shulk, Bowser Jr., and Ganondorf as CONFIRMED? This would essentially, as @ andimidna just said, cut our losses; right about Shulk, wrong about Bowser Jr. (although he had a much better score at one point). This would also disqualify them from a rerate. Alternatively, we could just give them some time to be hard confirmed (maybe the last day before we go into pre-launch model if applicable) before rating them.

I pretty much consider what we're doing right now a cooldown day. I think the remainder of andimidna's breakdown, minus Shulk and Bowser Jr. should be our remaining schedule.

As I was typing this, @ Pacack has made a valid point. Perhaps our next day should be: Duck Hunt Dog, Dark Pit, and Dr. Mario, as all three votes will be strongly dependant on each other with anyone who believes the rest of the leak. On the same day we would also vote to mark Shulk, Bowser Jr., and Ganondorf as CONFIRMED, or to rerate them. If an overwhelming majority agrees not to bother, we would move on and not waste a day.

The last thing I want to do is prematurely consider them confirmed, but I am extremely confident in the leak's utter legitimacy (while believe there are additional characters). I am also always willing to admit I was wrong and made an idiot of myself.

 

[Skyblade12]

Here's my ten cents. Do more than 95% of you agree with marking Shulk, Bowser Jr., and Ganondorf as CONFIRMED?

No. Nothing is confirmed until done officially. If you don't want to rate them again, fine. But don't call them confirmed until we have something from Nintendo.

 

[Gunla]

I'd be fine with BJ, Fasterdorf and Shulk rating/confirmation ratings, but they shouldn't get a day to themselves.
I don't want to have pages primarily of 100% X 3 ratings for chance.
As PK did state, having them on a day with the others sounds plausible, in my opinion.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, rating Ganondorf alone would be a waste in it of itself. Look at the front page's results before the leak; he got a 98% in chance. What would a rerate prove?

I say that we don't label them confirmed until we officially get something.

 

[Starbound]

I think the best thing to do is to just rate the leak as a whole and then move on.

 

[Xenigma]

I don't see any need to mark any of the leaked characters as confirmed, nor do I see any need to rate them. If the general consensus is that rating them is a waste of time due to the undeniable influence of the leaks, regardless of them being officially confirmed or not, let's not waste that time. We've got precious few rating days left before the game begins to shut down, so let's enjoy our remaining ratings instead of pushing Duck Hunt Dog and company to 95%+.

 

[Groose]

So, looks like Cooldown Day won out by a convincing margin. I'm just gonna grab some sleep now, and I'll let the day that was going on before the leak continue its course. After morning classes tomorrow, I'll come back and update the day. Sound good?

 

[Erimir]

Honestly, rating Ganondorf alone would be a waste in it of itself. Look at the front page's results before the leak; he got a 98% in chance. What would a rerate prove?

I agree, leak or not, there's no point in rerating Ganondorf. (The chance of Ganondorf being revamped did just go way down though.)

 

[Burigu]

Honestly I can't believe there are still people doubting the leak there are really convincing evidence on its side

@ Glaciacott :

Character got revealed? Yes
Officially? No that doesn't mean we can pretend we are unaware of their existence just because this wasn't Sakurai's doing

 

[jaytalks]

the problem with rerating any characters in the leak is that the argument will basically come down to: A) I believe the leak. B) I don't believe the leak. I think this argument will extend to virtually any unconfirmed characters. Many of the fun factors we use to rate characters (popularity, series importance, sales, gut, etc) will be thrown out the window.

It feels like cheating if we did the reratings of any characters in the leak. Being wrong is ok because none of us are game designers on this game, or more specifically none of us are Sakurai. It seems I was dead wrong on Bowser Jr and am happy to admit that, because he looks fun.

I think we can do satisfaction ratings when the characters are officially announced or when the game is released in Japan. Whichever comes first.

 

[andimidna]

I know things are just starting to get figured out here, but I'm going to bring up something else

If those 3 get listed as confirmed. Medusa, Krystal, Tharja, Pauline, Barbara, Candy Kong(did we rate her?) and whoever else we saw trophies of should be listed as deconfirmed. We saw in Wario's trophy what a trophy of a playable character looks like. Or really, sounds like. It describes at least something that they do in the game if they're playable, and well, these 4 have trophy descriptions and are not referenced to be in the game in any other form. Now, I'm not sure about the past trophies, but is there doubt about this? I mean, wouldn't the character have to be unlocked to receive the trophy of that character anyways? And if they were playable and unlocked, we would have seen them on that roster.

I don't expect us to rate them as confirmed honestly, but if that does happen, this should also as an extension.

 

[Delzethin]

There's so much back and forth right now that I think we probably shouldn't rate anything in the leak, honestly. Can I propose that starting tomorrow (Wednesday), we only rate non-character concepts that the leak doesn't cover? If we do anything tied up in the leak, we'll get a bunch of extreme opinions and all we'll end up with is controversy and possibly ratings that are way off the mark.

 

[Starbound]

There's so much back and forth right now that I think we probably shouldn't rate anything in the leak, honestly. Can I propose that starting tomorrow (Wednesday), we only rate non-character concepts that the leak doesn't cover? If we do anything tied up in the leak, we'll get a bunch of extreme opinions and all we'll end up with is controversy and possibly ratings that are way off the mark.

The thing is with this approach is that rating something seemingly unrelated to the leak (say, K. Rool) will still result in scores effected by the leak. Some will say something like "Because the leak is true, there isn't enough room for him in the roster. 5% Chance" while some will say "Leak isn't true so there is lots of room for him and he deserves to get in because x, y, z 75%".

A vast majority of the nominated items have connections to the leak, even if they're similar to my example.

 

[Skyblade12]

The thing is with this approach is that rating something seemingly unrelated to the leak (say, K. Rool) will still result in scores effected by the leak. Some will say something like "Because the leak is true, there isn't enough room for him in the roster. 5% Chance" while some will say "Leak isn't true so there is lots of room for him and he deserves to get in because x, y, z 75%".

A vast majority of the nominated items have connections to the leak, even if they're similar to my example.

That's why @ Delzethin specified "non-character concepts".

 

[Glaciacott]

The thing is with this approach is that rating something seemingly unrelated to the leak (say, K. Rool) will still result in scores effected by the leak. Some will say something like "Because the leak is true, there isn't enough room for him in the roster. 5% Chance" while some will say "Leak isn't true so there is lots of room for him and he deserves to get in because x, y, z 75%".

A vast majority of the nominated items have connections to the leak, even if they're similar to my example.

But there's also lots of concepts that would have nothing to do with the leak.

Like say rating Tabuu appearing as a boss battle. Leak said nothing about that and there was a miiverse post implying a great foe than just Master Hand.

There's still stuff to discuss that's not just characters.

 

[Delzethin]

But there's also lots of concepts that would have nothing to do with the leak.

Like say rating Tabuu appearing as a boss battle. Leak said nothing about that and there was a miiverse post implying a great foe than just Master Hand.

There's still stuff to discuss that's not just characters.

Precisely. With all the leak craziness going around, I feel like we'd be better off rating things that'd still have a meaningful impact on the games--like, say, the Wii U version having a Melee-style Adventure mode or there being extra 3DS content released via Spotpass, Fire Emblem Awakening-style--but wouldn't invite so much controversy that it'd skew the results and ruin any chance we had of making a fair judgement.

The way I figure it is: it doesn't help is to rerate characters right now regardless of whether the leak is real or just a really well made hoax. If it's the former, they're confirmed anyway and we're just risking a flame war for no reason...and the significantly raised or lowered chances wouldn't tell us much since they were affected by a leak proved true. If it's the latter, we'd have a bunch of characters with unnecessarily high or low ratings because conclusions were jumped to.

We shouldn't let this awesome thread go to waste, but we're better off seeing how this leak blows over before we touch anything related to it. Thoughts, everyone?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

OP needs to be updated, Ghirahim is still on there

 

[Deleted member]

But there's also lots of concepts that would have nothing to do with the leak.

Like say rating Tabuu appearing as a boss battle. Leak said nothing about that and there was a miiverse post implying a great foe than just Master Hand.

There's still stuff to discuss that's not just characters.

Pretty sure that he meant Crazy Hand and Master Hand, since that can happen in Brawl.

Anyway, I think we should rate things like ATs/Pokeball Pokemon, Wii U stages, Alternate Costumes/Palette Swaps (Duck Hunt getting a Banjo Kazooie styled palette? Eh? Eh?), Items, things like "how many Wii Us will be sold within x time period because of Smash", Wii U modes, etc.

 

[ChazzzyF]

The thing is, even if we continue normally, we'll end up dealing with the leak anyway.

For one, Bowser Jr Rerate has shot up really high in the nominations. Sooner or later (my guess is sooner based on the momentum it has), we'll end up having to deal with the topic.

And also, any characters we would rate from now on would be tainted by the leak. Look at Parabo and Satebo (with 74 votes) and M. Bison (62 votes). Even if they were just cool ideas that probably would have gotten low ratings anyway, do you know anyone who in their right mind would give them anything other than 0% now? Or look at Impa. She was in one version of the leak, so her overall chances are going to go up because of it. Some people may not buy her version of the leak, but some people do, and will raise her score higher than it would have been.

The leak is an inevitable discussion anyway, we may as well just devote some time to talking about it now. I'm not saying spend a whole week going over each facet of each version of the leak, but maybe spend one or two days to do it quickly so we can get on with business having discussed it.

Remember how Gematsu had a hold over discussion and halted speculation for a while? This leak has more hold on us than Gematsu ever did. We may as well give it the time of day.