Pac-Man
95% Chance: We've seen too many hints of Namco involvement on every aspect of the game: now having their own items and obviously getting a big say in the design of Final Destination (it screams Soulcalibur). If there's going to be a Namco third-party character, it just has to be Pac-Man. Lets run through the other possibilities first.
Lloyd is the most requested character from Namco... for Brawl. I have not seen nearly the same level of interest for Smash 4. The Tales series has also flown the coop so to speak, as it's now more a Playstation franchise. The series creator said that he had no plans for even an Xbox One version of the next Tales, I doubt Nintendo is happy.
The other big one is Nightmare. Now, I am a gigantic fan of Nightmare, though I've never stated it on this forum. However, Nightmare doesn't fit Smash Bros. His range is absolutely terrifying in a game where every character has a weapon, let alone Smash Bros. He's slow and hard to balance. Most of all, his character is too... adult? It just doesn't fit in Smash Bros very well. There are zero requests for Nightmare, as Soulcalibur hasn't been on Nintendo consoles since SC2, a decade ago.
The only big franchise that could be represented is Tekken, partially because of the Tekken Tag 2 game having alternate, Smash Bros-themed costumes and it being released on the Wii U, but it likely falls outside the correct time for it to matter. Tekken suffers a similar fate as Nightmare, having no requests, awkward tones and on top of that, no frontrunner.
Pac-Man's own competition within Namco is very weak. If you accept that Namco will get one character on the roster, it's clearly going to be Pac-Man.
Just to run through a few obvious points, but not linger too long on them as everyone has stated them already. Pac-Man is one of the last big video game icons not in Smash Bros. He's crossed over Mario and MegaMan. Unlike MegaMan, Pac-Man is being pushed by Namco in a cartoon. Miyamoto and probably many Nintendo employees love Pac-Man. Sakurai has commented on Pac-Man to an IGN interviewer, Sakurai was asking the questions, but the thought obviously has crossed his mind.
Pac-Man is a bright and colorful mascot that not only fits into Smash Bros, but fits extremely well into the tone Sakurai has for Smash 4. Everything this game is less washed out, brighter and more colorful. Namco is working on the game (obviously) so he also represents their contribution.
If there's going to be just one third-party newcomer, Pac-Man is too obvious. There's little competition anymore, seeing as MegaMan and Sonic are already in. Snake is sadly up in the air, leaving some wriggle room for another third-party. I'm a fan of Layton, Bomber-Man and Nightmare but none of them are as likely as Pac-Man.
It's not 99% as there is always the remote chance he goes for another third-party, and I believe we'll only get two, including MegaMan.
100% Want: I'm a big fan of Pac-Man in Smash Bros, he's practically the reason a game like Smash Bros exists in the first place. A game all about big characters from the video game industry, when Pac-Man was one of the first game characters. He invented many conventions that would become commonplace. If that's not worth representing, I don't know what is, especially in Smash Bros.
Pac-Man is to me a likable version of Sonic. He's not trying to be "hip," in spite of his new cartoon targeted at little kids. Pac-Man's just a happy, joyful and simple mascot that has a straightforward personality. That's where I feel much of the inspiration for Mario, Sonic and sure, even MegaMan originates, if not a direct link. Pac-Man is that influential.
Mii
10% Chance: I wanted to make this 0, or very low, but I will admit I've been swayed a little by the leak and the fact Mii was all over Mario Kart's promotional material and online profile system while being playable.
However, Mario Kart is not Smash Bros. Sakurai doesn't get a model created, then slap it into the game. Miis would need just as much time as other newcomers to work and Sakurai isn't the kind of person who reveals a newcomer casually. That is what he did in the direct, multiple times.
Of course, rules are made to be broken, this may just be the first time he overtly uses a character before revealing them and Mii is the kind of character where I can see that happen. On the other hand... I don't think there's even a want for Mii in the game. I hate to harp on Mii's popularity, Pac-Man was fairly unpopular here before, but truth be told, Mii is not a liked character or requested by fans. This is very obvious, so much so even Sakurai has made negative comments.
The crown icon, the online profile stuff and the liberal use of the Mii in the direct all point at a confirmation to me, that Mii is not a newcomer. The cage deserves a little elaboration on, as I do feel it considerably hurts Mii's chances and that's great as it hurts that stupid leak. The cage may simply not have used the Miis at that point in development. The Mii may be released or imprisoned at different points of the match, by player interaction or as an automatic change.
The fact that we've seen Miis should be it, really - Toon Link was different, it was Spirit Tracks Link using a low poly model, in a completely different outfit. The caged Miis, the online profile Miis, the Miis plastered all over the direct are just Miis. These aren't special Miis that look different from regular ones.
If Sakurai was making a Mii newcomer, there's no reason to reveal them in this way, after the Find Mii build-up. I think it partially comes from the fact Sakurai knows Mii has no hype. Compare Ridley's shadow and the Mii here. Ridley is obscured, coyly left out of the picture; Mii is right there in your face: hello I'm de-confirmed.
0% Want: I never liked this idea and I've not grown any fonder. Wii Fit Trainer is one thing, as it's two specific "characters." Mii is a generic interchangeable avatar. It is the opposite of a character. I admit it'd make absolute sense to use as a profile avatar or in other ways, just not as a playable character.
An elaborate custom Mii set is off the table after the direct confirmed (limited) customization and a sports-inspired Mii not only sounds boring, but screws over Waluigi ever getting a place.
Takamaru: 43%
Around or exactly the same as before.
Lip: 5%
The Lip item was confirmed, doesn't leave much room for interpretation.
