Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Skyfox2000]

Confirmed fake! Think about it would Sakurai spoil it's own game randomly in twitter, I don't think so.

Why give a total stranger that info? don't make any sense

That tweet is fake. I remember people making such a joke out of it one time when we rated Isaac.

Thanks for the update!

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Dr. Mario
Chance as playable - 1%
Highly doubtful.
Chance as Mario costume - 80%
Much more likely

Want as playable - 10%
I liked him in Melee but there's no reason he should have his own slot.
Want as costume - 55%
Would be cool.

Bowser Jr. chance - 10%
We've got a Mario newcomer already in Rosalina, and even aside from her, I don't see Bowser Jr. being next in line.

Want - 15%
Not the bottom of my list, but definitely not someone I want to see in.

 

[~Krystal~]

Double zeroes for Doctor Mario and Bowser Jr. Add it all up and you get quadruple zeroes.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Bowser Jr and Dr Mario:

(In other words, quadruple zeros)
Dr Mario: I don't think this one requires much explaining.
Bowser Jr: I don't see us getting yet another Mario rep (Not in this installment, anyway), and to be honest I find him really annoying. I'd prefer for this not to happen, and thankfully it won't.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Dr. Mario Likelihood: 0%
Want: 1%

Bowser Jr. Likelihood: 2%
Want: 20%

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Dr Mario: 5%
Want: 0%

Bowser Jr: 15%
Want: 70%

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Mario

Chance: 1% - Probably going to be an alt costume at best.
Want: 30% - Liked his games, but not attached to him in Melee

Bowser Jr.


Chance: 10% - Doubt that Mario will get another newcomer
Want: 0% - No thanks

 

[The Light Music Club]

Dr. Mario
Chance: 5% - An easy clone to make, and has potential to step further away from Mario.
Want: 85% - He wasn't my favorite in Melee but I liked the Doc more than I did regular Mario. The power in the pills is why I rather have him another character.

Bowser Jr:
Chance: 20% - I think he and Paper Mario are the only two with a good shot at being the 6th Mario rep, however, I think there is only about a 40% chance that will happen.
Want: 90% - I wanted him in Brawl, and I want him more than Rosalina. He's been around longer than her, and they have an equal amount of importance throughout Mario games because of this.

Predictions:
Black Shadow - 6.32%
Takamaru - 44.67%

Honestly though Takamaru is so very over-rated imo, especially with all the characters who could potentially take the retro slot.

 

[Erimir]

@ Groose @lonekonwolf I think Bowser Jr with Shadow Mario is deconfirmed, due to no transformation characters. I suppose Shadow Mario could be a Final Smash, but I don't think that was the intent of that concept...

Dr Mario

There are basically two ways to handle this. The first is the most likely: simply make it a costume. Mario puts on the coat, head mirror and stethoscope and you call it a day. He could instead get the Lucina treatment - start out that way and acquire some unique properties. If you reskin his fireballs as pills, the fire properties no longer make sense, requiring him to have slightly different abilities. From there you might as well tweak his other abilities.

Personally, while I like the pills (the look and the noises) I don't see it as necessary. It could be cool to change the sound to the pill sound even if they were still fireballs though... Or make them fiery pills. One thing I would like is for Mario to be more like Melee Dr Mario... Why doesn't Mario get to be good? Dr Mario wasn't top tier, but he was still way better than Mario in the last two games...

But Lucina was lucky. Dr Mario has a pretty good chance of being an alternate costume, but unlike Lucina, people aren't clamoring for Dr Mario to be a separate character, and he is still just Mario in a doctor's outfit. He makes more sense to keep as an alternate costume.

Dr Mario chances: 2%
Dr Mario want: 20%
I'd like to see him as an alternate costume. He has good chances there, although I could see the fireball/pill issue as somehow making Sakurai decide against it.

Bowser Jr

Bowser Jr was being knocked before for potentially being a Bowser clone. I guess now people see this as slightly beneficial. Well, I don't see Lucina as being particularly helpful. Lucina got in because she was an alternate costume that they slightly tweaked. In other words, she was minimal effort after they had already made the costume.

The problem? Bowser Jr is not a plausible alternate costume for Bowser because of the size difference. So he can't get in the same way Lucina did. You might say Lucina shows Sakurai is willing to add clonish characters... Well, we already had seen Toon Link return, so we already knew that clones weren't automatically out. There is a chance for some semi-clones already. But what about the newcomers we've seen other than Lucina? They've all been very much not clones.

So I don't think we can say Sakurai is definitely going to add semi-clone newcomers along the lines of Falco or Lucas on the basis of Lucina. They've always been possible and they definitely wouldn't be the ones they'd be emphasizing before launch (it's possible those newcomers would either not get trailers or be included in more unique characters' trailers). The fact that Lucina gets less emphasis on the site shows that they're not going to get the same treatment.

And of course, Bowser Jr has the chance to be unique with only some similarity to Bowser.

But all in all, I only see a slight boost for Bowser Jr with the Lucina news. The death of Gematsu also helps.

But there is some suggestion that maybe Bowser Jr would've been revealed along with Rosalina if he were in. There's also just the issue of the roster filling up and Mario being less likely to get a 2nd full-fledged newcomer than other series are to get their first newcomer. A Lucina-style clone is possible, but like I said... Bowser Jr can't be that. He could perhaps be a Melee-style clone, but I don't know that we're getting any of those.

Bowser Jr chance: 5.3%
Rosalina killed his chances, and the recent news doesn't really change that. He's still the most likely candidate for a second Mario newcomer, but I find that concept fairly unlikely. The fall of Gematsu helps certain fan favorite characters a lot more than Bowser Jr, IMO.
Bowser Jr want: 40%
He's a little annoying. He could be fun to play as now that the Shadow Mario transformation concept is (thankfully) an impossibility. But I don't see him as necessary and I'd rather have several other characters.

Predictions:
Takamaru - 45%
People are going to go back to rating him as quite likely.
Black Shadow - 11%
I think his score would decline a bit if not for Lucina's cloneness giving them hope. His last rating was a while ago, so it was largely unaffected by the Gematsu pessimism.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

The Doctor?!

EXTERMINA- Oh, what? Wrong Doctor. My bad.

Dr. Mario - 0.1%

DLC is the sole reason I'm even giving him a 0.1% in chance. At this point, I can barely see that happening either. He'll probably just end up as an alt. costume, if anything.

Want - 10%

I liked him in Melee, but similar to how I feel about Young Link, I don't really want see him return in this game. However in Young Link's case, I'd hate to see him return since it would either mean we'd have three Links or have him replace Toon Link. Dr. Mario isn't in the same boat as Young Link is, so while I'd prefer that the Doc doesn't come back, I wouldn't be angry if he did.

Bowser Jr. - 0.1%

We were never likely to get more than one Mairo newcomer in the first place, and at this point I think it's a safe bet to say that we most definitely won't.

Want - 90%

He is, and always will be my most wanted Mario newcomer.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dr. Mario Chance: 35% I think he has a decent chance of happening as one of those Lucina-types of clones, he doesn't have the demand, but he does have the relevance to get in (Dr. Luigi, Online RX, Express for DSiware) , and if he returns, I hope he gets a moveset rebuff that has stand out with a pill-element based moveset, otherwise people will hate him again.

Bowser Jr. Chance: 10% Why is this lower than Bowser Jr.? Because he can't be a clone and I highly doubt we will get a second unique Mario newcomer. And his moveset potential is not impressive.

Takamaru Prediction: 17.87% If I hear "Not over Ridley and K. Rool" one more time because he can't get in..
Black Shadow: 5.76% Don't know much about him, so I have nothing to state.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Dr. Mario would make a good alternate costume for Mario, however, if they play different, he could another Marth-Lucina type clone with his own character slot, but it's very unlikely. Lucina was the exception because of the power in her Falchion being balanced, also being a little shorter.

Want as alternate: I'd say around 48%.

Separate character: A bit of Melee fan-service, but not really necessary. 38%

Sadly, I'm neutral on the idea of Bowser Jr.

 

[erico9001]

Bowser Jr Chance: 1%
Bowser Jr Want: 0%
Dr Mario Chance: 1%
Dr Mario Want: 0%

 

[JaidynReiman]

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 30%, I think he's possible, but I don't think he's that likely.
Want: 25%, I don't like Bowser Jr. at all, but I'd be ok with him if he was added I guess...

Dr. Mario
Chance: 35%, slightly better chance than Bowser Jr.
Want: 0%, we don't need Dr. Mario as a separate character. As a skin I'm perfectly fine with it.

 

[Burigu]

Well I now see the implications of Lucina's clone reveal, because of her apparently now every character "clonable" has a good shot, which I find really UNLIKELY, Sakurai himself said that Lucina is A LUCKY NEWCOMER, so these theories of posible character being in based on Lucina are really unlikely and unrealistic. If we were to get tons of separate clones or semi clones NEWCOMERS the words "LUCKY NEWCOMER" don't make any sense.

Dr. Mario
Chance: 0%
No explanation needed, I am going to believe in Sakurai´s words about Lucina so I don't see Dr. Mario returning to the roster and since we are here to rate characters as playable I don't see the need to put a score as costume, so I will skip that.
Want: 0%
You were good in a time Dr. Mario, but I don't see the need to see you, you are still Mario we only need one Mario. And just in case Link and Toon Link are tecnically 2 different people so no in the same situation there.

Dr. Mario's inclusion as anything but a costume seems pointless compared to Lucina for the following reasons

• Dr. Mario would not only copy Mario's animations but also his model, in that regard Lucina at least has her own model
• Dr. Mario and Mario have the same height, so even there Lucina is different she is shorter than Marth.
• So based on his attributes as same height, model and animations he would be an even more boring addition than Lucina.
• I still love Lucina but I am not blind

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 2%
Honestly I don't see Bowser Jr. happening, Gematsu might be dead and suddendly everyone is overoptimistic about every posible character.
Sakurai also said, he is running out of trailers to show and characters in the roster left, Mario already got Rosalina no need to add more, even then the Mario Universe (Mario, DK, Yoshi and Wario) is already well represented, Main Mario series doesn't need another rep in this game, but Mario subseries might, all DK, Yoshi and Wario series any of them at least deserve some consideration if not for this game for the next one.

If the Mario Universe get King K Rool we would have: Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser, Rosalina, Yoshi, Wario, DK, Diddy and Rool that is 10 characters, I don't see Bowser Jr, with any posibility. I am aware that Smash treat Yoshi, DK and Wario as separate franchises and to some degree they are, but we can't negate they are still part of Mario and K. Rool have a better shot as a DK rep than Jr as a main series rep.

Want: 10%
Sorry Jr. at this point your best bet is either being a secret card yet to be played (an idea almost killed by Rosalina) or a hard to imagine clone of Bowser. Your paint brush - Shadow Mario gimmick got severely hurt and since your introduction in Sunshine, your character has lost some of the original appeal you had. Still better than certain "Mario sports games reps"

Takamaru: 13% for some odd reason
Black Shadow: 2.2%

 

[Delzethin]

Dr. Mario
Chance:
-As Own Character: 2%
-As Alternate Costume: 40%

I'd be extremely surprised if Doc pulled a Lucina. He was a filler clone added in at the last minute to pad Melee's roster, and even then only made it because Sakurai decided he didn't want Wario stuck as a clone. The only possible way he'd get in is as a last minute bonus...and even then, there are so many other characters that'd fit the bill better.

But then there's the chance of him being an alternate costume set for Mario...which is more plausible. It could happen, but I don't put a lot of trust in it yet when the only costumes of that kind we've seen so far are alternate genders and Hoodie Mac. If we see a couple more, Doc's chance as a Mario alt goes up.

Want (As Own Character): 0%

What does he even have going for him other than Melee nostalgia? I'd be fine with him being an alternate costume, though.


Bowser Jr.
Chance:
-Main Roster: 20%
-As DLC: 40%

He has two ways of making the roster, but neither are particularly high. He could be a full blown newcomer, with a unique moveset built around his paintbrush...but we already have a Mario newcomer in Rosalina. If we get more bonus clones, he could get in that way, as a weaker but smaller and slightly more mobile counterpart to his dad...but we have no idea if Lucina is a sign of things to come or just a fluke.

If newcomer DLC becomes a thing, though, his chances as a unique character are good. They wouldn't not add a Mario-verse character that way, and he'd be one of the frontrunners alongside Captain Toad.

Want: 30%

I guess I'm indifferent, more than anything. If he's in, whatever, if he's not, whatever.


Predictions
Takamaru: 44.21%
Black Shadow: 5.24%

 

[Chandeelure]

-Dr. Mario:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Bowser Jr.:
Chances: 1%
Want: 5%

 

[Tikivoy]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 20% I can see him as a character only because Sakurai didn't like him using fireballs, if they could manage to change the fireballs to pills, they could probably make it a costume...or not bother.
Want: 50% as long as he shoots pills I'm fine eitherway.
Bowser Jr.:
Chance: 5% nope.
Want: 15% Not really.

 

[ChazzzyF]

Hello. This is my first post on this thread (just learned of it's existence), so wish me luck.

Dr. Mario: Chances: 5% as playable character
50% as alternate costume

As a playable fighter, 6 Mario reps seems unlikely and I doubt we'll see his return for that reason, and due to a lack of current relevance.
But, I can really see the potential of him being an alt costume for Mario. It makes sense, since he was Mario's clone in Melee, and it would be a nice nod to Smash fans, without making him a full fighter.

Want: As a playable character 0%
As an alt costume 75%

He doesn't need a slot, but it'd be nice to see him involved in some way.

Bowser Jr.: Chances: 20%

Again, 6 Mario reps seems unlikely. However, I feel that if anyone were to become the 6th Mario rep, it has to be Bowser Jr. Not much else I can say on his chances...

Want: 100%

I do have to admit that Bowser Jr. is a guilty pleasure of mine. I know that he is generally disliked, but there's just something about him that I really like. Plus, it'd be fun to see what Sakurai's moveset for him would be.
Oh well. Here's for hoping in Smash 5.

And since I'm still new and don't exactly know how the predictions/nominations system works, I'll opt out this round until I know more.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I think Mario is likely to get another rep, especially as Pokémon looks like it's going to get 6, possibly 7 characters.

Dr Mario: 8%
I think he's a likely alt, but making the jump to clone? I don't see it, there's no reason other than precedent; Lucina on the other hand would look weird with a tipper and that sword, but it's no stretch to see any of the Dr Mario moves work exactly the same as Mario's, even the Vitamins... that said, Dr Mario Tornado could be a thing I guess...

Want: 15%
I'd prefer him as an Alt, but if it gets us Mario Tornado back in some way, then I'm cool with it, as long as it doesn't take priority over...


Bowser Jr: 85%
Yes, I think he's payable. Squirtle's move set is just sitting there from them to partially use, and Jr was the most requested Mario newcomer back in the day (pre-rosalina). Why he wouldn't be playable, I don't know... but it's Sakurai, and he does a lot of things I don't understand.

Want: 100%
Saving some of Squirtle's move set? Check!
Fun expressive character? Check!
Likely to be fun to play? Check!
Able to use the Koopa Clown Car as a Final Smash? HELL YEAH!



Takamaru: 45.5%
We still need a retro, and he is the front runner.

Black Shadow: 18.9%
I think Lucina and time without Ganondorf will give us more hope.

 

[PK_Wonder]

^Welcome!

This might as well be my first post too with my fancy, newfangled username! @ Groose , hopefully you recongize who I am. I can finally feel comfortable getting more involved with everything, so if I can assist you in anyway, please tell me how.

Dr. Mario - 5%
His chances did go up a pinch with clones being confirmed, but he isn't exactly an exciting addition to the roster. Sakurai has no problem with a paradox or two (both Zelda and her alterego, the same person is playable, as even more paradoxical Samus and Zamus). But a paradox AND a clone is something nobody would want. If he isn't playable, and he shouldn't be, he will be an alternate costume.

Want - 0%

Bowser Jr. - 7%
He shouldn't be a clone, but I feel their existence did make his chances go up. He does have potential to be an interesting lightweight twist on Bowser. We are unlikely to get another Mario newcomer though, and Paper Mario is a fierce candidate as well.

Want - 0%, I want too many other options.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Dr Mario: 10% He's more likely to be an alt costume for Mario

Want:0% I'd rather him be an alt costume instead.

Bowser Jr: 25% I doubt we have more Mario Newcomers

Want:30%

Well this was an easy poll for me today.

 

[Kalimdori]

Dr. Mario Chance: 0%
Yup. 0%. I was considering putting him at 1 or 2 percent, because technically it is possible, but you know what? I don't think so. Lucina to Marth is one thing, they are completely different characters, but Dr. Mario is literally a costume change for Mario. I could make an entire rant about Dr. Mario and every single reason I don't think he's playable, but I'm lazy and I don't like the subject in the first place, and don't want to waste my time on Doc! So there! Logic!

Want: 0%
I'm perfectly fine with clones for the most part. But Dr. Mario was taking it to far. His existence is utterly pointless, other then being filler content.

Bowser Jr. Chance: 10%
Can't have any more Mario characters, right? Running out of newcomer trailers, so there isn't enough room for a character like Jr., right?

First: I may be wrong about this, but did Sakurai ever say that every newcomer was getting a trailer? I don't want to rely on this point, but if he never said that bump this chance score to 20%. Because that means running out of trailers=/=running out of newcomers.

Second: 4 Fire Emblem characters. If Bowser Jr. can take some moves from his dad and Squirtle, he could easily fit into the game. Over representation doesn't matter, it makes me laugh whenever people try to argue that.

And third: If we get another Mario character, it will be either Bowser Jr. or Toad/Captain Toad. I put Jr. at 10 (Or 20, depending if I'm right about the trailer thing), Toad at 10, and no more Mario reps at 70. I think it's more likely then not that we won't get another Mario character, but it's far from impossible.

Want: 80%
I like him!

 

[andimidna]

So... I slept a lot on the plane... got back at 5 PM... wasn't tired, too late to do anything...
And I know about Lonekonwolf's fractured leg...
So I decided to do this:

Spoiler

The Rate Their Chance Results!

a bit differently this time eh?
​

Groose is one busy guy, so too help him save up some he offered me to take full control of the results tab
​

i'll be updating this with no in mind schedule so to save time and effort I've put up a last edited message,
​

come back here often to see the fruit of our communities efforts,

have fun rating mates!​

[collapse=Results]

June 9, 2014, Smash Satisfaction: 83.81%

E3 Hype: 86.73%

Nintendo E3 Satisfaction: 82.97%


[collapse=direct stuff - old stuff]

Direct Satisfaction: 79.71%


Direct Predictions:

Release window: CONFIRMED! 3DS is coming out In October, Wii u is coming out in winter

Multiple newcomers: DECONFIRMED! only one newcomer was shown, Greninja

Multiple veterans: CONFIRMED! Zero Suit Samus, Sheik, Yoshi, and Charizard were all revealed in the direct

New stage: CONFIRMED! Many stages were revealed in the direct we didn't see before

Character Deconfirmantion: CONFIRMED! many characters were outright deconfirmed as assist, pokeballs, hazards, and even in final smash

July 17 Satisfaction:


Robin: 89.55%

Mega Man: 86.95%

Villager: 83.36%

Little Mac: 81.55%

Pac-Man: 79.37%

Greninja: 78.81%

Rosalina: 74.18%

Palutena: 73.18%

Lucina: 71.40%

Wii Fit Trainer: 63.51%

Mii Fighters: 43.82%


Post E3 2014 Satisfaction:


Mega Man: 85.40%

Little Mac: 82.69%

Palutena: 80.77%

Villager: 80.25%

Pac-Man: 78.05%

Rosalina: 73.46%

Greninja: 71.18%

Wii Fit Trainer: 61.93%

Mii Fighter: 49.42%


April 13 Satisfaction

Mega Man: 89.14%

Villager: 83.75%

Little Mac: 81.40%

Rosalina: 72.18%

Greninja: 69.51%

Wii Fit Trainer: 63.18%


February 15 Satisfaction

Little Mac: 92.93%

Mega Man: 89.91%

Villager: 86.50%

Wii Fit Trainer: 77.56%

Rosalina: 72.08%


December 20 Satisfaction:

Villager: 86.16%

Mega Man: 83.68%

Rosalina: 80.74%

Wii Fit Trainer: 74.74%


Concepts

1. Unlockable Newcomers: 97.84% chance, 80.77% want

2. Unrevealed Unlockable Veterans: 96.86% chance, 80.44% want

3. Rhythm Heaven Character: DAY 262: (93.81% chance, 65.77% want) DAY: (14.29% chance, 37.98% want)

4. “You Will Know Our Names”: 87.98% chance, 79.08% want

5. CONFIRMED! Promoted Assist Trophy: 87.49% chance, 90.47% want

6. Demoted Veteran: 83.92% chance, 65.23% want

7. CONFIRMED! Spectator Mode: 77.19% chance, 76.15% want

8. RTC Top Ten as an AT: 74.26% chance, 41.62% want

9. CONFIRMED! NFC Trophies: 74.17% chance, 49.36% want

10. Improved Stage Builder: 70.17% chance, 85.15% want

______________


11. Brawl Pokemon and Mewtwo: 67.66% chance, 74.11% want

12. Other M Ridley: 61.12% chance, 46.37% want

13. Gematsu leak: DAY 279: (60.71% legitimacy) DAY 251: (90.35% chance, 59.47% want) DAY: (50.16% chance, 47.95% want)

14. Kid Icarus Smash Taunts: 57.39% chance, 78.24% want

15. Zelda Newcomer: 53.44% chance, 64.67% want

16. 50 or more Character Roster: 53.02% chance, 92.19% want

17. DECONFIRMED! FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS! Only Gematsu Newcomers: 49.30% chance, 18.10% want

19. Decloned Ganondorf: 48.87% chance, 82.24% want

20. Ms. Pac-Man Costume: 47.14% chance, 64.33% want

____________


21. Competitively OP Character: 46.95% chance, 0.58% want

22. DECONFIRMED! PAC-MAN PLAYABLE! No Namco Character: 46.10% chance, 53.92% want

23. CONFIRMED! Non-Ghostly Adventures Pac-man: 42.29% chance, 63.60% want

24. <10% Chance Character: 41.85% chance, 82.58% want

25. Masked Dedede: 40.51% chance, 56.94% want

26. CONFIRMED! Extensive Alternate Costumes: 38.11% chance, 73.51% want

27. Double Trouble (King K. Rool and Ridley): 32. 98% chance, 83.80% want

28. No Cuts: 32.80% chance, 57.91% want

29. Spear User: 35.61% chance, 66.36% want

30. DLC Characters: 31.14% chance, 71.84% want

___________


31. “In The Final”: 29.39% chance, 75.18% want

32. Non-Character Hanafuda Representation: 27.84% chance, 62.17% want

33. Four DK Characters: Day 175: (24.60% chance, 71.48% want); Old: (42.03% chance, 75.60% want)

34. Six Mario Characters: 22.70% chance, 40.78% want

35. DECONFIRMED! STAYED THE SAME! Yoshi Overhaul: 20.82% chance, 50.87% want

36. Seven Pokémon: 17.70% chance, 53.16% want

37. Wario Land Wario: 17.47% chance, 54.84% want

38. DECONFIRMED! MII FIGHTER CONFIRMED! Only Popular Newcomers: 16.33% chance, 52.13% want

39. Non-Chorus Men Rhythm Heaven Rep: 15.13% chance, 45.10% want

40. "Calling to the Night": 12.05% chance, 46.08% want

_____________


41. Two Retro Newcomers: 9.36% chance, 39.94% want

42. DECONFIRMED! FINAL SMASH! Chrom Assist Trophy: 9.16% chance, 22.07% want

43. Playable Boss Mode: 8.66% chance, 43.04% want

44. CONFIRMED! Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon Separated: 6.11% chance, 26.48% want

45. Fatal Frame Representation: 4.46% chance, 35.77% want

46. Bowser Jr. with Shadow Mario: 3.93% chance, 17.89% want

47. Pokemon Assist Trophy: 3.80% chance, 34.48% want

48. Mr. Dream Boss: 2.51% chance, 3.46% want


Stages

1. Pirate Ship: 59.92% chance, 68.48% want

2. Rhythm Heaven: 47.10% chance, 68.31% want

3. Bowser's Castle: 42.58% chance, 83.33% want

4. Cookie Country: 40.47% chance, 48.96% want

5. Mario Kart 8 stage: 39.93% chance, 58.84% want

6. Fountain of Dreams: 39.90% chance, 78.08% want

7. DK Silhouette Stage: 37.78% chance, 75.10% want

8. Kirby's Epic Yarn: 37.29% chance, 68.48% want

9. Mario 3D World: 36.57% chance, 64.77% want

10. Gyromite: 33.01% chance, 46.48% want

__________


11. Gangplank Galleon: 32.27% chance, 65.30% want

12. Lor Starcutter: 27. 42% chance, 56.12% want

13. Bowser Land: 27.16% chance, 694.1% want

14. Paper Mario: 25.90% chance, 87.77% want

15. Halcandra: 23.07% chance, 43.50% want

16. Dr. Mario: 19.73% chance, 57.13% want

17. Nutty Noon: 14.32% chance, 48.59% want

18. Tetris: 13.32% chance, 62.89% want


Veterans

1. Mr. Game and Watch (Game and Watch): 99.50% chance, 90.51% want

2. Ganondorf (The Legend of Zelda): 98.90% chance, 90.62% want

3. Ice Climbers (Ice Climber): 98.14% chance, 88.28% want

4. R.O.B. (Robot): 95.44% chance, 80.06% want

5. Falco Lombardi (Star Fox): 94.69% chance, 74.74% want

6. CONFIRMED! Sheik (Legend of Zelda): Day 141: (92.23% chance, 79.02% want); Day ???: (93.57% chance, 84.53% want)

7. DECONFIRMED! CHARACTER SWAPPING CUT! Pokemon Trainer Red (Pokemon): Day 152: (91.55% chance, 77.00% want); Day 33: (81.38% chance, 71.88% want)

8. Jigglypuff (Pokemon): DAY 253: (86.46% chance, 70.03% want) DAY 211: (88.44% chance, 71.71% want) DAY: (96.15% chance, 79.06% want)

9. CONFIRMED! Sonic (Sonic the Hedgehog): 84.56% chance, 80.75% want

10. CONFIRMED! Lucario (Pokemon): DAY 77: 81.90% chance, 72.36% want); DAY 20: (65.42% chance, 68.71% want)

___________


11. Wolf (Star Fox): DAY 213: (74.98% chance, 75.63% want) Day 162: (88.07% chance, 84.17% want); Day 77: (86.08% chance, 80.36% want)

12. CONFIRMED! Ike (Fire Emblem): DAY 212: (72.62% chance, 75.22% want) Day 134: (82.73% chance, 77.59% want); Day : (78.58% chance, 73.48% want)

13. Mewtwo (Pokémon): DAY 282: (75.56% chance, 78.18% want) DAY 253: (66.93% chance, 78.21% want) DAY 223: (76.27% chance, 81.50% want) Day 201: (74.24% chance, 81.58% want) Day 143: (89.56% chance, 82.57% want); Day 10: (90.22% chance, 88.34% want)

14. Lucas (Mother): DAY 281: (69.25% chance, 65.15% want) DAY 255: (43.70% chance, 59.61% want) DAY 213: (72.98% chance, 65.27% want) DAY: (87.03% chance, 80.04% want)

15. CONFIRMED! Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda): 62.3% chance, 64.54% want

16. Solid Snake (Metal Gear): DAY 283: (35.03% chance, 55.46% want) DAY 255: (28.51% chance, 61.98% want) DAY 212: (42.73% chance, 60.14% want) Day 185: (62.66% chance, 63.92% want); Old: (66.12% chance, 69.00% want)

17. Ivysaur (Pokémon) 8.84% chance, 55.36% want

18. Squirtle (Pokémon) 7.41% chance, 51.57% want

19. Doctor Mario (Doctor Mario): 7.10% chance, 18.01% want

_____________


20. Pichu (Pokemon): 3.30% chance, 25.90% want

21. Roy (Fire Emblem): DAY 280: (1.44% chance, 19.70% want) DAY 209: (14.58% chance, 34.25% want) DAY 118: (38.44% chance, 42.82% want); DAY 53: (40.42% chance,48.87% want); DAY 16: (38.75% chance, 45.37% want)


22. Young Link (Legend of Zelda): 0.31% chance, 6.52% want



Newcomers

1. CONFIRMED!Palutena (Kid Icarus): DAY 199: (95.23 chance, 77.93% want) DAY 141: (81.66% chance, 75.07% want); DAY 97: (70.69% chance, 74.37% want); DAY 2: (76.35% chance, 77.22% want)

2. DECONFIRMED! FINAL SMASH! Chrom (Fire Emblem): DAY 251 (88.82% chance, 50.83% want) DAY 204: (68.72% chance, 46.57% want) DAY 125: (44.56% chance, 31.46% want); DAY 25: (69.65% chance, 57.27% want)

3. CONFIRMED! Little Mac (Punch-Out!!): DAY 81: (88.11% chance, 77.00% want); DAY 12: (83.59% chance, 73.22% want)

4. Shulk (Xenoblade): DAY 279: (84.58% chance, 80.71% want) DAY 251: (91.70% chance, 74.55% want) DAY 201: (69.73% chance, 70.21% want Day 174: (64.06% chance, 66.79% want); Day 136: (55.76% chance, 67.20% want); Day 6: (49.58% chance, 61.12% want)

5.CONFIRMED! Pac-Man (Pac-Man): DAY 202: (81.24% chance, 60.25% want) DAY 161: (59.96% chance, 50.21% want); Day 8: (54.99% chance, 34.79% want)

6. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong): DAY 282: (60.49% chance, 80.84% want) DAY 252 (53.62% chance, 80.53% want) Day 200: (68.75% chance, 78.88% want) Day 163: (68.28% chance, 85.46% want); DAY 89: (74.36% chance, 84.47% want); DAY 5: (72.48% chance, 78.57% want)

7. CONFIRMED! Mii [Mii Fighters] (Wii Series): DAY: 202: (55.70% chance, 22.66% want) DAY 169: (61.62% chance, 28.26% want); Day 17: (57.08% chance, 27.40% want)

8. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): DAY 281: (53.48% chance, 67.88% want) DAY 252: (40.85% chance, 57.55% want) DAY 200: (49.04% chance, 54.21% want) DAY 150: (63.68% chance, 68.25% want); DAY 65: (55.39% chance, 40.60% want); DAY 7: (57.38% chance, 50.17% want)

9. Chorus Men (Rhythm Heaven): DAY 279: (44.16% chance, 49.01% want) DAY 251: (81.25% chance, 56.08% want), DAY ???: (28.67% chance, 39.24% want)

10. Ridley (Metroid): DAY 250 (48.41% chance, 77.02% want) DAY 199: (33.02% chance, 74.60% want) DAY 158: (73.98% chance, 81.21% want); DAY 80: (71.38% chance, 84.80% want); DAY 44: (69.95% chance, 84.13% want); DAY 3: (71.1% chance, 78.73% want)

_____________


11. Takamaru (Nazu no Murasamejou): DAY 254 (38.12% chance, 58.12% want) DAY 203: (46.06% chance, 57.21% want) Day 164: (49.67% chance, 57.51% want); Day 19: (59.54% chance, 52.82% want)

12. Isaac (Golden Sun): DAY 283: (36.29% chance, 70.07% want) DAY 254 (30.40% chance, 72.56% want) DAY 235: (38.22% chance, 68.42% want) DAY 205: (43.07% chance, 70.21% want) DAY 131: (33.87% chance, 68.46% want); DAY 4: (52.48% chance, 71.6% want)

13. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Starfy (The Legendary Starfy): 30.92% chance, 40.03% want

14. DECONFIRMED! CHARACTER SWAPPING CUT! Toon Zelda and Tetra (The Legend of Zelda): Day 172: (30.81% chance, 45.28% want); DAY 90: (38.69% chance, 49.60% want); DAY 30: (23.69% chance, 42.26% want)

15. Chibi Robo (Chibi Robo): DAY 217: (25.29% chance, 57.29% want) DAY: (19.71% chance, 44.47% want)

16. Dark Pit (Kid Icarus): DAY 280: (21.17% chance, 20.12% want) DAY 259: (5.44% chance, 11.21% want) DAY ???: (3.66% chance, 24.55% want)

17. Andy (Wars) DAY 198: (19.01% chance, 52.64% want) DAY 82: (9.60% chance, 37.38% want)

18. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Saki (Sin and Punishment): Day 142: (18.53% chance, 42.46% want); Day 41: (39.34% chance, 54.15% want)

19. DECONFIRMED! CHARACTER SWAPPING CUT! "New" Pokemon Trainer (Pokemon): 18.33% chance, 37.95% want

20. Ghirahim (Legend of Zelda): DAY 258: (18.13% chance, 56.58% want) DAY 206: (25.04% chance, 53.91% want) DAY: (9.86% chance, 33.76% want)

_______________


21. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Dillon (Rolling Western): Day 184: (17.70% chance, 50.37% want); Old: (30.62% chance, 54.23% want)

22. Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby): DAY 257: (17.39% chance, 53.98% want) DAY 198: (24.72% chance, 47.61 want) DAY 121: (38.06% chance, 64.26% want); DAY 99: (25.21% chance, 55.20% want); DAY 22: (17.70% chance, 38.00% want)

23. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Tingle (Legend of Zelda): DAY 206: (17.23% chance, 24.39% want) DAY 117: (13.31% chance, 23.31% want); DAY 27: (15.59% chance, 25.85% want)

24. CONFIRMED! Robin (Fire Emblem): DAY 256: (16.98% chance, 66.12% want) DAY 204: (25.83% chance, 59.64% want) DAY 129: (32.61% chance, 56.00% want); DAY XX: (15.10% chance, 38.90% want)

25. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Samurai Goroh (F-Zero): 16.92% chance, 38.44% want

26. Impa (Legend of Zelda): DAY 258: (16.82% chance, 49.48% want) DAY 207: (4.30% chance, 26.05% want) DAY (18.81% chance, 28.61% want)

27. Marshal (Rhythm Heaven): 16.78% chance, 33.07% want

(t) 28. CONFIRMED! Lucina (Fire Emblem): DAY 256: (16.72% chance, 56.59% want) DAY 209: (12.78% chance, 38.64% want) DAY 104: (15.39% chance, 45.73% want); DAY 15: (22.56% chance, 43.4% want)

(t) 29. Tetra [solo] (Legend of Zelda): DAY 207: (16.72% chance, 43.63% want) DAY (16.33% chance, 51.03% want)

30. Krystal (Star Fox): DAY 128 (16.33% chance, 27.05% want); DAY 11: (32.86% chance, 49.54% want)

_________________


31. CONFIRMED! Rosalina (Super Mario): 15.77% chance, 42.90% want

32. Ray (Custom Robo): DAY 205: (15.61% chance, 48.46% want) DAY 96: (12.95% chance, 45.05% want)

33. Sceptile (Pokémon) DAY 250: (15.29% chance, 52.43% want) DAY 218: (19.49% chance, 59.11% want) DAY 216: (8.84% chance, 45.59% want)

34. Professor Layton (Professor Layton): DAY 222: (14.08% chance, 60.93% want) DAY: (12.17% chance, 44.89% want)

35. Mach Rider (Mach Rider): DAY: (13.92% chance, 36.64% want) DAY: (17.62% chance, 44.75% want)

36. DECONFIRMED! FINAL SMASH! Tom Nook (Animal Crossing): 13.73% chance, 38.46% want

37.Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven): 12.97% chance, 24.71% want

38. WAAAAAH! ASSIST TROPHY! Waluigi (Super Mario) DAY 100: (12.75% chance, 44.13% want); DAY 32: (24.72% chance, 35.02% want)

39. Porky (Mother): 12.71% chance. 48.66% want

40 (t). Vaati (Legend of Zelda): DAY 220: (12.64% chance, 57.48% want) DAY: (9.15% chance, 34.30% want)

__________


41 (t). Lip (Panel de Pon): DAY 203: (12.64% chance, 57.09% want) DAY 189; (22.62% chance 56.45 want) DAY 53: (13.69% chance, 34.81% want)

42. DECONFIRMED! SAKURAI QUOTE! Daitoryo (Hanafuda): 11.99% chance, 36.80% want

42. Black Shadow (F-Zero): DAY 208: (11.87% chance, 42.33% want) DAY: 13.09% chance, 43.00% want

44. Captain Rainbow (Captain Rainbow): DAY 188: (11.24% Chance, 48.65% want.) DAY:95 (4.45% chance, 40.74% want)

45. Muddy Mole (Mole Mania): 11.08% chance, 42.54% want

46 Anna (Fire Emblem): DAY 226: (10.94% chance, 59.76% want) DAY: (12.07% chance, 44.77% want)

47. Blaziken (Pokemon): DAY 218: (10.82% chance, 36.90%) DAY: (9.27% chance, 42.93% want)

48. Mallo (Pushmo): 10.62% chance, 37.28% want

49. Bowser Jr. (Mario): DAY 265: (10.58%, 42.17% want) DAY 211: (26.63% chance, 52.60% want) DAY 132: (17.88% chance, 44.55% want); DAY 61: (56.43% chance, 68.16% want); DAY 13: (43.44% chance, 56.48% want)

50. Duck Hunt Dog (Duck Hunt): 10.34% chance, 35.43% want

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51. Hades (Kid Icarus): Day 180: (10.30% chance, 54.34% want); Day 114; (9.63% chance, 52.19% want)

52. Toon Zelda [solo] (legend of Zelda): 10.15% chance, 18.41% want

53. Paper Mario (Mario): Day 180: (9.58% chance, 39.02% want); DAY 101: (29.85% chance, 50.97% want); DAY 14: (28.33% chance, 44.25% want).

54. Medusa (Kid Icarus): DAY 259: (9.50% chance, 38.32% want) DAY 236: (10.24% chance, 54.88% want) DAY: (11.85% chance, 28.26% want)

55. Masked Man (Mother): 9.43% chance, 42.00% want

56. DECONFIRMED! CHROM IS A FINAL SMASH, LUCINA IS SEPARATE! Chrom and Lucina Team (Fire Emblem): DAY 209: (9.41% chance, 28.83% want) DAY: (9.43% chance, 31.56% want)

57. Simon Belmont (Castlevania): 9.18% chance, 44.43% want

58. DECONFIRMED! TROPHY AND STAGE ELEMENT!Cranky Kong (Donkey Kong): DAY 200: (8.97% chance, 33.42% want) DAY 121: (12.31% chance, 37.20% want)

59. DECONFIRMED! POKE BALL SUMMON!Genesect (Pokemon): 8.56% chance, 27.75% want

60. Mona (WarioWare): 8.50% chance, 46.86% want

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61. DECONFIRMED! SHOWN IN TRAILER! Zoroark (Pokemon): DAY 137: (8.38% chance, 38.72% want) DAY 37: (20.23% chance, 39.42% want)

62. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Lyn (Fire Emblem): Day 151: (8.28% chance, 37.86% want); Day 12.74% chance, 36.26% want

63. Micaiah (Fire Emblem): DAY 225: (8.20% chance, 44.65% want) DAY: (3.62% chance, 18.98% want)

64. DECONFIRMED! TROPHY! Wonder Red (Wonderful 101): 8.05% chance, 37.10% want

65. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Dark Samus (Metroid): 7.94% chance, 26.32% want

66. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Skull Kid (Legend of Zelda): 7.52% chance, 41.47% want

67. Matthew (Golden Sun): 7.50% chance, 33.36% want

68. DECONFIRMED! POKEBALL! Meowth (Pokemon): Day 168: (7.33% chance, 43.81% want); Day 62: (11.02% chance, 43.38% want)

69. Prince Fluff (Kiby): 7.21% chance, 28.06% want

70. Excitebiker (Excitebike): 7.15% chance, 33.96% want

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71. Slippy Toad (Star Fox): 6.75% chance, 25.35% want

72. Barbara (Daigasso! Band Brothers)): 6.44% chance, 17.58% want

73. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Midna (Legend of Zelda) 6.32% chance, 41.95% want

74. DECONFIRMED! TROPHY! Tiki (Fire Emblem): 6.20% chance, 43.33% want

75. Sheriff (Retro): DAY 221: (6.03% chance, 30.12% want) DAY: (7.50% chance, 16.82% want)

76. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Ashley (WarioWare): 5.85% chance, 27.43% want

77. Ganon (Legend of Zelda): 5.76% chance, 38.29% want

(t) 78. Prince Sable (For the Frog the Bell Tolls): 5.74% chance, 30.57% want

(t) 79. Louie (Pikmin): 5.74% chance, 23.55% want

80. X Protagonist (Xenoblade): 5.53% chance, 12.30%

______________


81. Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight): 5.44% chance, 37.89% want

82. Jimmy T. (WarioWare): 5.34% chance, 38.31% want

83. Doctor Kawashima (Brain Age): 5.15% chance, 22.12% want

84. Rayman (Rayman): 5.13% chance, 42.31% want

85. Bomberman (Bomberman): DAY 133: (4.94% chance, 59.83% want); DAY 56: (7.70% chance, 53.95% want)

86. Rhythm Wrestler (Rhythm Heaven): 4.82% chance, 48.50% want

87. Alph (Pikmin): 4.76% chance, 21.36% want

88. Diskun (Famicom Disk Drive): 4.72% chance, 20.12% want

89. DECONFIRMED! SIN AND PUNISHMENT LACKS AN ICON!Isa (Sin and Punishment): 4.68% chance, 19.79% want

90. Savvy Stylist: 4.67% chance, 23.43% want

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91. Slime (Dragon Quest): DAY 226: (4.66% chance, 35.67% want) DAY 124: (4.80% chance, 32.65% want); DAY 58: (6.06% chance, 24.43% want)

92. Plusle and Minun: 4.41% chance, 17.90% want

93. Fawful (Mario and Luigi): DAY 228: (4.40% chance, 38.54% want) DAY: (3.06% chance, 34.52% want)

94. Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) 4.35% chance, 36.79% want

95. Rhythm Monkey (Rhythm Heaven): 4.34% chance, 17.65% want

96. Captain Syrup (Wario Land): 4.18% chance, 27.26% want

97. Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia): 4.00% chance, 28.34% want

98. Magolor (Kirby): 3.99% chance, 31.16% want

99. Plasm Wraith (Pikmin): 3.80% chance, 13.43% want

100. Sylveon (Pokemon) 3.61% chance, 16.20% want

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101. DECONFIRMED! POKEBALL! Victini (Pokemon): 3.46% chance, 24.39% want

102. Aeron (Pandora's Tower): 3.44% chance, 23.90% want

(t) 103. Anthony Higgs (Metroid): 3.43% chance, 13.64% want

(t) 104. Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy): 3.43% chance, 12.39% want

105. Grovyle (Pokemon): 3.41% chance, 33.91% want

106. Jill Dozer (Drill Dozer) : 3.36% chance, 38.06% want

107. DECONFIRMED! QUOTE/STAGE! Kamek (Yoshi's Island): DAY 198: (3.19% chance, 33.63% want) DAY 57: (11.34% chance, 36.06% want)

108. DECONFIRMED! TROPHY! Toad (Super Mario): Day 140: (3.05% chance, 50.29% want); DAY 78: (17.90% chance, 45.08% want); DAY 26:

(30.16% chance, 36.28% want)

109. Bayonetta (Bayonetta): 3.03% chance, 20.70% want

110. Geno (Super Mario): 2.93% chance, 31.65% want

____________


111. Wild Gunman (Retro): 2.93% chance, 13.40% want

112. DECONFIRMED! ITEM!Sandbag (Super Smash Bros.): Day 178: (2.85% chance, 18.72% want); Old: (0.63% chance, 20.41% want)

113. King Boo (Luigi's Mansion): 2.71% chance, 26.42% want

114.Zael (The Last Story): 2.68% chance, 21.18% want

115. Mike Jones (StarTropics): 2.64% chance, 14.18% want

116. Captain Toad (Super Mario): DAY 257: (4.62% chance, 51.11% want) DAY: (2.62% chance, 31.79% want)

117. Black Mage (Final Fantasy): 2.61% chance, 37.78% want

118. DECONFIRMED! BRITTANY DECONFIRMED! Alph, Brittany, Charlie Trio (Pikmin): 2.58% chance, 15.64% want

119. Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog): 2.54% chance, 31.67% want

120. Professor E. Gadd (Luigi's Mansion): 2.46% chance, 31.63% want

____________


121. Daisy (Super Mario): 2.41% chance. 13.14% want

122. Mr. Resetti (Animal Crossing): 2.38% chance, 16.36% want

123. Ninten (Mother): 2.31% chance, 7.61% want

124. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY!Magnus (Kid Icarus): 2.23% chance, 15.79% want

125. Agitha (Legend of Zelda): 1.98% chance, 21.74% want

125. Ayumi Tachibana (Famicom Detective Club Series): 1.95% chance, 18.04% want

126. Dark Matter (Kirby): 1.86% chance 17.67% want

127. Owain (Fire Emblem): DAY 265: (1.83% chance, 17.40% want) DAY ???: (0.72% chance, 14.51% want)

127. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY!Shadow the Hedgehog (Sonic): 1.77% chance, 5.48% want

128. Ephraim (Fire Emblem): 1.73% chance, 24.05% want

129. Pauline (Donkey Kong): 1.72% chance, 11.43% want

130. Klonoa (Klonoa): 1.66% chance, 29.66% want

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131. Harry (Teleroboxer): 1.65% chance, 22.52% want

132. Dr. Robotnik (Sonic the Hedgehog): 1.63% chance, 28.42% want

133. Leon Powalski (Star Fox): 1.51% chance, 21.79% want

134. DECONFIRMED! REGGIE MII SHOWCASED!Reggie (Nintendo of America): 1.44% chance, 17.44% want

135. Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness): 1.32% chance, 26.29% want

136. Zero (Mega Man): 1.29% chance, 26.33% want

137. Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden): 1.27% chance, 20.64% want

138. Tharja (Fire Emblem): 1.26% chance, 16.17% want

139. DECONFIRMED! POKEBALL! Eevee (Pokemon): 1.23% chance, 18.25% want

140. Groose (Legend of Zelda): 1.16% chance, 43.58% want

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141. DECONFIRMED! BOSS!Master Hand (Super Smash Bros.): 1.15% chance, 28.59% want

142. Eirika (Fire Emblem): 1.11% chance, 23.98% want

142. Crono (Crono Trigger): 1.09 chance, 35.86% want

143. Shantae (Shantae): 1.01% chance, 33.92% want

144. Stork (Yoshi's Island): 0.97% chance, 9.75% want

(t) 145. Goku (YuYuKi): 0.96% chance, 31.82% want

(t) 146. Quote (Cave Story): 0.96% chance, 22.17% want

147. Goemon (Ganbare Goemon): 0.93% chance, 11.80% want

148. Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes): 0.92% chance, 24.72% want

149. Knuckles (Sonic the Hedgehog): 0.90% chance, 27.34% want

150. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Isabella (Animal Crossing): 0.86% chance, 13.32% want

__________


(t) 151. Peppy (Star Fox): 0.80% chance, 18.89% want

(t) 152. Tiny Kong (Donkey Kong): 0.80% chance, 14.39% want

(T) 153. Balloon Fighter (Balloon Fight): 0.79% chance, 27.88% want

(T) 154. Adam Malkovich (Metroid): 0.79% chance, 0.43% want

155. Lanky Kong (Donkey Kong) 0.71% chance, 14.14% want

156. Mask Link (Legend of Zelda): 0.70% chance, 24.91% want

(t) 157. Jack Frost (Shin Megami): 0.68% chance, 25.91% want

(t) 158. DECONFIRMED! ENEMY! Bulborb (Pikmin): 0.68% chance, 7.94% want

159. Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy) 0.67% chance, 7.75% want

160. Primid (Super Smash Bros.): 0.63% chance, 9.05% want

_________


161. Happy Mask Salesman (Legend of Zelda): 0.62% chance, 24.63% want

162. Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): 0.58% chance, 41.98% want

163. Goku (Dragon Ball): 0.46% chance, 12.51% want

164. Spyro (Spyro): 0.43% chance, 28.05% want

165. Reyn (Xenoblade): 0.41% chance, 8.00% want

166. Sora (Kingdom Hearts): 0.38% chance, 21.49% want

167. Bandit (Super Mario): 0.37% chance, 9.78% want

168. Chef Kawasaki (Kirby): 0.36% chance, 9.03% want

169. Pyrrhon (Kid Icarus) 0.36% chance, 22.75% want

170. Omastar (Pokemon): Day 185: (0.35% chance, 25.85% want); Old: (0.19% chance, 11.63% want)

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171. Neku and Shiki (The World Ends With You): 0.34% chance, 21.84% want

172. Panther Caruso (Star Fox): 0.33% chance, 2.52% want

173. DECONFIRMED! STAGE ELEMENT AND ASSIST TROPHY!Nintendog (Nintendogs): 0.30% chance, 11.13% want

(t) 174. Ryu (Street Fighter): 0.29% chance, 10.00% want

(t) 175. Nightmare (Soulcalibur): 0.29% chance, 8.58% want

176. Count Bleck (Paper Mario): 0.26% chance, 11.90% want

177. Yarne (Fire Emblem): 0.25% chance,24.52% want

178. N (pokemon): 0.24% chance, 5.92% want

(t) 179. Hero of light (Final Fantasy): 0.22% chance, 6.82% want

(t) 180. Flynn (Shin Megami Tensei): 0.22% chance, 11.29% want

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181. Amaterasu (Okami): 0.21% chance, 46.53% want

182. Arino (Retro Game Challenge): 0.20% chance, 24.14% want

183. Ooccoo and Ooccoo Jr (The Legend of Zelda): 0.13% chance, 6.88% want

(t) 184. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want

(t) 185. Chancellor Cole (Legend of Zelda): 0.12% chance, 7.59% want

186. Aran Ryan (Punch Out!): 0.08% chance, 14.35% want

(T) 187. Yarne and Owain Team (Fire Emblem): 0.03% chance, 16.38% want

(T) 188. Scrooge McDuck (Duck Tales): 0.03% chance, 12.96% want

(T) 189. Athena Cykes (Ace Attorney): 0.03% chance, 6.08% want

190. Zip (Fling smash?): 0.01% chance, 8.78% want

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(t) 191. Lupus (Jet Force Gemini): 0.00% chance, 6.20% want

(t) 192. Commander Shepard (Mass Effect): 0.00% chance, 6.42% want

193. CONFIRMED! Greninja (Pokemon): !DIDN'T EVEN RATE!

[/collapse]

Last time updated:

July 3, 2014 (Day 264: K. Rool and Dixie)

If any characters are labeled wrong please give notice, I'll fix it​

[collapse=Top 10 charts]

CHANCE

#1 Shulk

#2 King K Rool

#3 Dixie Kong

#4 Chorus Men

#5 Ridley

#6 Takamaru

#7 Isaac

#8 Chibi Robo

#9 Dark Pit

#10 Andy



WANT

#1 King K Rool

#2 Shulk

#3 Ridley

#4 Banjo-Kazooie

#5 Isaac

#6 Dixie Kong

#7 Professor Layton

#8 Bomberman

#9 Anna

#10 Takamaru

[/collapse]
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I didn't pretty it up (colors, etc.), but I got the basic stuff in line.
Hopefully this will help the process of getting the thread back to normal after these last few days of pre-schedueled rates.

 

[Glaciacott]

^Welcome!This might as well be my first post too with my fancy, newfangled username! @ Groose , hopefully you recongize who I am. I can finally feel comfortable getting more involved with everything, so if I can assist you in anyway, please tell me how.

Is that you, @Hades the Magnificent ?

Ok, for my rating I suppose, though I really care very little about the ratees.

Bowser Jr.
Chance - 5%
Not much to say

Want - 25%
I like him, but I like a lot of characters still not yet included a lot more

Doctor Mario
Chance - 0%
This is one of those vets I just don't see returning, and I'd be very surprised if he appears. VERY SURPRISED.

Want - 0%
Don't care for him. There's better, more interesting Mario characters to wish for, and the fact he'd be another clone (what's more, a clone that doesn't really add much to the franchise, since at least Lucina is an original, beloved character.) I'm very uninterested in this happening.

 

[andimidna]

Is that you, @Hades the Magnificent ?

Pssst... look at the initials.

 

[jaytalks]

I don't think characters that have a chance of getting cut will have a better chance because they are clone or semi clones. The cut characters could be just about trimming the roster, and not making it too big. Or the character could have decreased relevance in their series/ their series could have decreased relevance. I also don't think Sakurai is fishing for clones, so I don't think it really helps out any characters chances that could be easy clones or semi-clones. It's all about whether the character is what Sakurai is looking for Smash. If we look at our two clone we have right now (Toon Link and Lucina), Toon Link represents a definite second art style within the Zelda series, and is actually the most prominent and consistent look for Link. Lucina is a character with a series that went from cooling to red hot, and is one of the most popular characters from that game. It's also a series that can you some great buzz for the game from the fan intensity towards the characters. And it's hard to judge right now, with the game being relatively recent in its release, but she seems to one of the overall most popular character in the series with 13 (or 11) iterations, and like 18 main protagonists.

With that said:
Dr. Mario: 1%
I don't think Sakurai will put him but I'm leaving room to be wrong with this character. I think Sakurai has a strong affinity for puzzle games.
Want: 0%
He's a doctor without a medical degree. I don't want him near any of the injured fighters in mash. That's what makes him the most dangerous.

Bowser Jr: 0%
He doesnt have a chance unless he were to a semi clone. But as I said, I don't Sakurai is looking for characters,

Want: 0%
All my remaining want for a Mario newcomer goes to Toad. But Jr wouldnt get it anyway.

 

[FalKoopa]

Pssst... look at the initials.

?

Anyway, onto the ratings.
Dr. Mario:

Chance: 3%
I think there is a very slim chance of him getting the Lucina treatment, but I expect an alt. costume.​

Want: 50%
I do want him to be in the game in some form. I don't care how they go about it though.​

Bowser Jr:

Chance: 1%
Considering he has potential to be unique, I think his chances are dead for this game. Hopefully next time.

Want: 55%
I don't mind more Mario characters, but I'm plenty satisfied with Rosalina.​

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Dr Mario:
Chance: 20%
Same reason as Dark Pit.
Sakurai may have assigned him as an alt, but wants bouncy pills, the "small change" is born and BOOM!
Own slot.

Reasons this is lower than DP is becsuse a Dr. Mario alt isn't guaranteed.

Want: 100%
Check my username.

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 15%
Can't start as an alt, and the chance there are two original Mario characters planned is small.
But I don't know for sure.
Maybe we will get secret semiclone newcomers after all.


Want: 100%
Any Mario newcomer is 100% for me and especially Bowser Jr for playing in the first 3D Mario I played and came further than the first door (SM64) and in my favorite MK game (Double Dash!!) and pretty much every game after that, including the game I played for two years non-stop (NSMB)

/End nostalgia rant

Plus he would be small and speedy.

Tommorow
Takamaru: 30%
Black Shadow: 24%

 

[Mega Hawlucha]

Dr Mario: 6%
I think Dr. Mario is going to make it as a Mario Alt at the very least, but there is a chance Sakurai decided that the Doctor just doesn't work with the Fireballs and F.L.U.U.D. and separates him further, much like Lucina.
Want: 25%
I did actually main this guy in Melee, alongside Bowser and Marth, but even so, I've always thought his inclusion was a bit odd. That said, my 25% Want came from personal bais and because if he does make it in, we'd get to see the Doctor back with the old Dr. Tornado instead of the F.L.U.U.D., that alone would make his inclusion worth it to me.

Bowser Jr: 10%
Jr. could easily be a semi-clone. Just combine Squirtle's moveset and make minor changes to the Water-Based moves to make them more relevant to him, then throw in some of Bowser's moveset where it would work.

That said, I think no more Mario Newcomers is most likely but after Robin/Lucina, who knows.
Want: 65%
I'd prefer to see Captain Toad/Generic Toad get in before him as a Mario Rep but at the same time I have grown fond of Jr. and the Koopalings over the years, so seeing Bowser Jr. get in, even as a amalgamation of Bowser and Squirtle, would be awesome.

 

[Captain Toad]

Doctor Mario:
Chance: 5% as a stand alone. 40% as an alt maybe?

Want: 0% Although I enjoyed playing him in Melee, Melee was my clone run really (I did play legit non clone characters too, I just generally went to the clones more when against people) I don't really see the need for any clones to return to Smash. We've played them, they were okay, and more often than not annoyed your opponent more because it showed you just toying with them, so they did their job, and have had their time.
60% as an alt. I'd be up for him being an alt outfit for Mario...but that's about it. I'd also like a Paper Mario alt for Mario too.

Bowser Jr: Oh boy, here we go!
Chance: 30% His chances are looking about as healthy as Toad's are. I don't really think we'll get another Mario rep, despite all the hopes and dreams Bowser Jr and Toad supports have.

Not to mention poor Bowser Jr seems to recently have been ignored. The biggest shock being: Mario Kart 8 having all the Koopalings but not Jr? I was genuinely surprised, since all the way through that trailer I kept expecting to see him... must have been even worse for his fans, especially when you unlocked Metal Mario, Pink Gold Princess Peach, Baby Daisy and Baby Rosalina. I'm not even a fan but ouch.

Want: 30% As mentioned above, I'm not a Bowser Jr fan, but my want score fluctuates a little bit because I just found him more annoying than anything else.
I do see some merit in his character, and heck I was expecting he'd be the Mario rep to be revealed, and was ready to react with some level of annoyance and fist shaking. (Like an old cartoon villain, who's plan was just ruined)
My want score is a bit lower (10% lower), because if another Mario rep was suddenly thrown up into much more of a positive possibility then I'd be sat in the competition's camp.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dr. Mario
Chance: 25%
Alright so let's not forget Dr. Mario was supposed to be coming back in Brawl, and that the original person who suggested Dr. Mario only asked for him to be a costume but Sakurai got his pants in a twist deeming it 'odd for Dr. Mario to shoot fireballs' thus made him a clone character.

If Lucina was made her own roster spot because her sword and height are a tiny bit different it honestly wouldn't surprise me if Doc returned just because of the pills...

Want: 0%
...but good lord I hope I'm wrong. Of all the Mario characters to put in; one that literally no one has ever asked for should not be the default option. With the likes of Captain Toad(or generic Toad), Waluigi, Bowser Jr. and even a more interesting version of Mario in Paper Mario as viable options the only real reason to include Doc would be the ease of making him.

Have him as an alt outfit by all means, but far fewer people care if Doc shoots fireballs and not pills than there are fans of the other Mario options.

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 18%
Rosalina...and Jr.'s roles seem to be slowly diminishing within the series; NSMB2, Super Mario 3D World/Land and Mario Kart 8 all being notable non appearances by him seem to suggest Nintendo isn't pushing for him quite as hard as they once did.

Still; semi clone potential? He has it in droves with Squirtle and Bowser's movesets to dip into making him probably more likely than his rivals(Captain Toad and Paper Mario)

Want: 18%
My least favourite Mario character of all time, although the hate is slowly dwindling now he's not being rammed down my throat as much as he once was. Plus he's not a replacement scrappy for the Koopalings(aka; my childhood) so there's less anger directed at him this year than last.

He'd still be my personal punchbag if he got in, but I'd probably use him a fair old amount too since even my least favourite Mario character is bound to get some usage from me.

Still would prefer Captain Toad(obvs) but Jr. is still preferred to Paper Mario or Doctor Mario for me...just not a fan of two variants of any roster character no matter how much I love their original series(see Toon Link).

 

[Sid-cada]

Dr. Mario

Chance - 2.5% - Yeah, he could be cloned, but to be honest it makes sense for him to just be an alternate costume. There is a chance he could end up like Lucina, but he might have deliberately avoided that because of Melee.

Want - 10% - Give it to some other series. I think we have enough Mario characters for now.


Browser Jr.

Chance - 2.5% - Yeah, this is about all I can give. I expect him to mostly get in as a (semi-)clone at this point, though that may be difficult.

Want - 20% - More than the Doc, but still not enough to want him over some more even representation among the series.


Prediction

Takamaru - 39.23% - Some optimism, but overall still not quite as good as it used to.

Black Shadow - 18.45% - Clones are going to make him shoot upwards like a rocket.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Dr. Mario - 2%, I don't see Sakurai making this mistake twice.
Want - 0%, Booooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOO!!!

BJ - 15%, He is the only mario newcomer besides Rosalina I would expect to appear in the game. He could be an easy Toon Link-esque clone of Bowser.
Want - 70%, This is difficult to rate since I would not want him to be a clone, but I would like to see him in as an original character due to my strong liking of Super Mario Sunshine and BJ in general.

Takamaru - 41%
Black Shadow - 15%

 

[Toxicroaker]

Dr. Mario: 3% I doubt it, but it is possible.
Want: 0% I don't think we need another off-the-wall pick for the Mario series.

Bowser Jr.: 15% Yet again, possible, but not likely. However, they might seize the opportunity to make him a semi-clone of Squirtle and Bowser together.
Want: 100%

Takamaru: 44.55%
Black Shadow: 3.42%

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Because we don't have enough Mario reps now do we.
In all seriousness though...
Dr Mario:
Chance: 4% I'll give him a a slight chance for being a clone and a veteran who was planned for Brawl as part of the forbidden 7 but he doesn't have a lot going for him outside of that. Not everyone can be as lucky as Lucina.
Want: 0%

Spoiler

Bowser Jr:
Chance: 1%
He may be a bit popular but he hasn't been seen for a while (or at least not as much as Rosalina). I doubt Sakurai would be willing to make a moveset for him when we already have one superb Mario newcomer. There is really no one you can clone him to. Plus, he's got a bit of competition with captain Toad (though neither would probably get in).
Want: 50%
Look, I like him but, eh, I don'y really care if he gets in or not at this point.

I'm still peeved that he's getting neglected by Nintendo.
[collapse=MONADO FLAME SHEILD ME!]I actually prefer him over all of the Koopalings. They're all bland to me.[/collapse]

I'm just mad the the Koopalings got in Mario Kart 8 instead of the one people actually like (Bowser Jr).

Predictions:
Takamaru - 37.75%
Black Shadow - abstain

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Mario
Chance: 1%
The only thing to his name that doesn't earn him a flat-out 0% is really the Forbidden 7. Had he not been planned for Brawl, he would have nothing to go on. I mean, he's even outclassed by Mewtwo and Roy in terms of requests and demand.
I don't think that Lucina helped him one bit. She actually has slight differences in Marth that made her a separate character from Marth and her popularity is absolutely massive among Awakening fans. Dr. Mario... doesn't have that. He's basically Mario in a doctor outfit who has a spin-off series to his name. His design isn't that different from Mario to consider giving him his own slot.
One last thing that hurts him is competition. He is going to get outcompeted by the likes of Bowser Jr. and Toad for a hypothetical 6th Mario slot.
Doctor, you may be saving lives, you can't save your own in Smash.
Want: 0%
I far, far prefer him as an alternate costume. If we were rating him as that, I would give an instant 100%.
As a separate character though? He would be a waste.

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 15%
He gets a 5% boost because of the death of the Gematsu leak.
He's a popular Mario character, the most likely one that is next in line for a Mario slot, and he's easily cloneable or semi-cloneable if Sakurai doesn't want to make a unique moveset for him. However, Mario is unlikely to get that 6th slot in this iteration.
Want: 100%
I'm still peeved that he's getting neglected by Nintendo.
[collapse=MONADO FLAME SHEILD ME!]I actually prefer him over all of the Koopalings. They're all bland to me.[/collapse]

Takamaru Prediction: 42.50%
Death of Gematsu will raise his chance score, but I think some will pursue to lower it.
Black Shadow Prediction: 13.05%
I guess he'll gain a boost thanks to Lucina? F-Zero is still dormant, unlike Fire Emblem.

 

[Pacack]

Dr. Mario:

Chance: 7.5%
Not impossible, but definitely unlikely. Almost definitely going to be an alternate costume if he's not his own character, though.

Want: 10%
Eh.


Bowser Jr.:

Chance: 3.33%
IF we get another Mario character, I still think it's most likely going to be a Toad. Most likely Captain Toad since he's apparently hoping he can join the battle some day. He's not impossible, though.

Want: 0%
I would be upset if we got anything but Toad at this point too.


Predictions:
Black Shadow: 17.5%
Takamaru: 45.45%

 

[Louie G.]

Dr. Mario

Chance: 2%
I don't think Dr. Mario is likely, nor do I think Lucina raised his chances very much. In fact she probably lowered his chances. Many of us were banking on a Doc alternate costume, however Sakurai stated that the slightest difference in a character would result in them being separate. And quite frankly Doc just isn't worth adding as a separate character.

Want: 10%
It's not that I don't like Dr. Mario, it's simply that I feel that Doc doesn't belong in Smash at all. Like Roy, and Pichu. I like them but I'm not necessarily praying for their return by any means.

Bowser Jr.

Chance: 5%
BJ has always been a front runner for the possible sixth Mario slot, however I doubt that we'll be getting one and I personally feel that Paper Mario would fill said slot if the opportunity came.

Want: 10%
There are so many better Mario characters: Paper Mario, (Captain) Toad, even Waluigi.

Black Shadow: 21.5%
Takamaru: 47.5%

 

[Rockaphin]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 1.5%
Want: 15%
My main in Melee, but honestly I don't think he should've ever been in Smash. Paper Mario would've been a more ideal alternative Mario character. But Doc was an easy character to implement so I can somewhat understand why he was playable.

Bowser Jr.:
Chance: 10%
Want: 85%
After Paper Mario, Bowser Jr. is one of my most wanted Mario characters who deserve playability.

Predictions:
Black Shadow: 8.7%
Takamaru: 32.8%