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[foolssigma]

Snake..
Chance. eh, maybe 45% Not sure what to think about him.
Want: 80% MGS3 is one of my all time favorite games and he was fun to play as in Brawl.

Isaac:
Chance: 50% Could go either way. Might be a hidden assist again.
Want: 83% Definitely deserves to be revived as a franchise.

 

[Rockaphin]

Snake:
Chance: 15%
Want: 1%

Issac:
Chance: 45%
Want: 65%

Seems like a cool character, but I've never played any of his games so I have no attachments.

 

[CheeseBroJoe]

Snake

Want: 75%
I hate cuts no matter the character. Hell, I don't like the concept of cutting Lucas and he's probably my least played character on the roster. Not only that but he brings something unique to the table with his play style. That said, I don't play as snake too often, and I don't have a connection to MGS games so I won't be too bummed if he doesn't make an appearance. That, and I'd personally rather have a certain Belmont clan member as a 3rd party Konami rep, but that's beside the point...

Chance: 50%
I could see it going either way. On one hand it advertises opposing consoles to some extent, and on the other it adds a considerable amount of hype for SSB4.

Isaac

Want: 100%
I only just recently played through the first two golden sun games, and I'm confident that my rating isn't skewed just because the game's fresh in my mind. They are just that good, and I'd love to see any rep whether it's Isaac or not.

Chance: 40%
Sadly, I just don't see Isaac making an appearance. There's not much going in his favor save for the absence of his assist so far, but as I recall, his trophy in brawl had to be unlocked so even that doesn't necessarily mean anything. I don't think Robin steps on Isaac's toes at all, but I do think that the roster is nearing it's capacity for newcomers, and there just may not be enough room for a GS rep...

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Snake:
Chance: 2% - Not much to say here. (45% as DLC)
Want: 80% I'm too hyped for Pac-Man, Mega Man, and so many others to care but I wouldn't be upset unless it cost an important first party character a slot.

Isaac:
Chance: 10% - Don't think he'll be in (But he will be in SSF2, fellow Isaac fans!)
Want: 100% - As long as we get a RH rep, Shulk, and Takamaru, I'd welcome Isaac.

 

[leprechaunlink727]

Snake
Chance- 60%
Here are the facts:
-For Brawl, Sakurai worked hard to create an original move set for Snake. Snake ended up being one of the most unique characters in any fighting game ever, and it's not like Sakurai to just throw away a fighter that brings so much to the table. Not to mention that Sakurai is clearly a big fan of the series, and tweeted pictures from the 25th anniversary celebration, which occurred right around the time development began on Smash 4. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, Sakurai isn't why.

-Kojima "begged" for Snake to be in Smash going all the way back to Melee. Kojima has also made a public request for Sakurai to include Snake in Smash 4 as well. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, Kojima isn't why.

-Development on Smash 4 started in around March of 2012, right after the release of Kid Icarus: Uprising. Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D released in North America in February 2012 and worldwide in early March. This means that when the roster list was being put together, a heavily promoted Metal Gear title developed by Kojima himself had literally just been released on a Nintendo console. It's worth noting that this was just over two years ago, meaning Metal Gear has had a title released on a Nintendo console more recently than Mega Man, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, and Mother. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, "relevance to Nintendo" isn't why.

-Metal Gear is a series with a very goofy, over the top, hyper-real aesthetic. Snake is not a "realistic" character, as is clear to anyone who has actually played his games. One of the bosses in Snake Eater is a man made of bees, for instance. This bee man was supposedly instrumental in defeating the Nazis in WWII. It's all very silly. The games are somewhat violent and tackle some weighty themes, but the same could be said for Metroid, which has a much darker and more serious tone in general than Metal Gear, discounting maybe MGSV, which isn't even out yet. I would argue that the only reason Metroid games have never been rated M is because the violence in those games is directed towards aliens instead of human beings. Snake is no more out of place among Mario and Link than Samus is. And regardless, this is a crossover fighting game, so everyone is a bit out of place, that's the point. Snake is an important and beloved video game character, and while he's not quite as iconic as Mario or Pac-Man, he can certainly stand shoulder to shoulder with Sonic and Mega Man. Snake may be more associated with Sony than Nintendo, but this argument would only hold weight if he wasn't already a veteran. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, "not fitting in" isn't why.

-Over the past few years, Konami has demonstrated a pretty disrespectful attitude towards most of their IPs outside Metal Gear, often failing to give them any significant promotion. This paints a picture of a company being run by people who don't really "get it". Konami has also yet to support the Wii U, with one marketing rep making openly hostile comments towards it on Twitter. While Konami has a long a distinguished history both with video games in general and with Nintendo, the company, like Capcom, is undergoing a bit of an identity crisis and is quite possibly being run by idiots. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, it's because of Konami.

-At the moment, the only concrete evidence that Snake isn't returning is that he hasn't been announced yet. Kojima did not say that Snake isn't in the game, only that he doesn't know, but "doesn't think so", and with a big smile on his face at that. I would say that if we haven't gotten a confirmation of Snake by the end of August, then he's out, but until then, his chances are just as good as any other veteran besides Ivysaur and Squirtle, who are definitely gone.

Want- 100%
Brawl was my gateway into the Metal Gear series, which is now my favorite video game series of all time. Did you hear that Konami? Snake appearing in Smash Bros led directly to me spending numerous amounts of money on your silly stealth games, including buying a version of Snake Eater no less than 3 separate times! Snake is also my second favorite character to use in Brawl (after Olimar). I really, really want him back in. Now that Tingle and Waluigi are disconfirmed (I know, I know), Snake is by far my most wanted character. I honestly don't understand why he's so widely disliked. Play his games and you'll see that regardless of what console they appeared on, it's an absolutely wonderful and hugely influential series that deserved its representation in Brawl and deserves representation in Smash 4.

Isaac
Chance- 35%
I have much less to say about Isaac than Snake. Basically it comes down to this: it's either him or Shulk. Both are blond male JRPG protagonists, both will elicit a "who?" from the general public at large, and both are sword fighters with magic abilities. I know this is far from an original conclusion, but I think Chrom's disconfirmation has proven that Sakurai does not like redundancy in the roster. Right now, it's looking like Shulk is more likely, given X's upcoming release, Monolith Soft's obsession with retweeting Sakurai, and the Gematsu leak, which I sort of still believe.

Want- 70%
I have not played Xenoblade or the Golden Sun games, but I definitely want Isaac more than Shulk. Isaac, aesthetically, has much more going for him. It may be difficult for people who have played and fallen and love with Xenoblade to appreciate this, but Shulk is literally the most generic looking jrpg protagonist possible. Isaac has his own identity and just looks more like a Nintendo character. In addition, Isaac has telekinesis and rock magic, while all Shulk has is a sword that can predict the future or something. Isaac sounds like much more fun to play as in Smash. Just the "push" attack that he had as an assist trophy alone would make for an awesome and unique special. Unfortunately, it looks like they're going with Shulk, but I'm personally still holding out hope that we get Isaac instead. I think the fact that we still haven't seen his assist trophy is either a great sign or simply means he's not appearing at all.

Predictions
Dr. Mario- 1%
He's going to be a costume.

Bowser Jr.- 5%
I never understood the enthusiasm for this character in the first place, but regardless, I seriously doubt we're getting another Mario newcomer, and if we do, it had better be Captain Toad.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain from Isaac. I would be unable to make any fair judgments, because i know nothing about him. by the way guys, Isaac is not competing with Shulk

Snake:
Chance - 50%: Same as before. I'm still giving him to the next Nintendo Direct. If nothing happens then, I'll assume he's out.
Want - 80%: I didn't use him too much, but when I did, I never tired of spamming C4 and grenades. I will certainly miss him, but I can live without him.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Snake
Chance- 60%
Here are the facts:
-For Brawl, Sakurai worked hard to create an original move set for Snake. Snake ended up being one of the most unique characters in any fighting game ever, and it's not like Sakurai to just throw away a fighter that brings so much to the table. Not to mention that Sakurai is clearly a big fan of the series, and tweeted pictures from the 25th anniversary celebration, which occurred right around the time development began on Smash 4. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, Sakurai isn't why.

-Kojima "begged" for Snake to be in Smash going all the way back to Melee. Kojima has also made a public request for Sakurai to include Snake in Smash 4 as well. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, Kojima isn't why.

-Development on Smash 4 started in around March of 2012, right after the release of Kid Icarus: Uprising. Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D released in North America in February 2012 and worldwide in early March. This means that when the roster list was being put together, a heavily promoted Metal Gear title developed by Kojima himself had literally just been released on a Nintendo console. It's worth noting that this was just over two years ago, meaning Metal Gear has had a title released on a Nintendo console more recently than Mega Man, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, and Mother. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, "relevance to Nintendo" isn't why.

-Metal Gear is a series with a very goofy, over the top, hyper-real aesthetic. Snake is not a "realistic" character, as is clear to anyone who has actually played his games. One of the bosses in Snake Eater is a man made of bees, for instance. This bee man was supposedly instrumental in defeating the Nazis in WWII. It's all very silly. The games are somewhat violent and tackle some weighty themes, but the same could be said for Metroid, which has a much darker and more serious tone in general than Metal Gear, discounting maybe MGSV, which isn't even out yet. I would argue that the only reason Metroid games have never been rated M is because the violence in those games is directed towards aliens instead of human beings. Snake is no more out of place among Mario and Link than Samus is. And regardless, this is a crossover fighting game, so everyone is a bit out of place, that's the point. Snake is an important and beloved video game character, and while he's not quite as iconic as Mario or Pac-Man, he can certainly stand shoulder to shoulder with Sonic and Mega Man. Snake may be more associated with Sony than Nintendo, but this argument would only hold weight if he wasn't already a veteran. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, "not fitting in" isn't why.

-Over the past few years, Konami has demonstrated a pretty disrespectful attitude towards most of their IPs outside Metal Gear, often failing to give them any significant promotion. This paints a picture of a company being run by people who don't really "get it". Konami has also yet to support the Wii U, with one marketing rep making openly hostile comments towards it on Twitter. While Konami has a long a distinguished history both with video games in general and with Nintendo, the company, like Capcom, is undergoing a bit of an identity crisis and is quite possibly being run by idiots. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, it's because of Konami.

-At the moment, the only concrete evidence that Snake isn't returning is that he hasn't been announced yet. Kojima did not say that Snake isn't in the game, only that he doesn't know, but "doesn't think so", and with a big smile on his face at that. I would say that if we haven't gotten a confirmation of Snake by the end of August, then he's out, but until then, his chances are just as good as any other veteran besides Ivysaur and Squirtle, who are definitely gone.

Want- 100%
Brawl was my gateway into the Metal Gear series, which is now my favorite video game series of all time. Did you hear that Konami? Snake appearing in Smash Bros led directly to me spending numerous amounts of money on your silly stealth games, including buying a version of Snake Eater no less than 3 separate times! Snake is also my second favorite character to use in Brawl (after Olimar). I really, really want him back in. Now that Tingle and Waluigi are disconfirmed (I know, I know), Snake is by far my most wanted character. I honestly don't understand why he's so widely disliked. Play his games and you'll see that regardless of what console they appeared on, it's an absolutely wonderful and hugely influential series that deserved its representation in Brawl and deserves representation in Smash 4.

Isaac
Chance- 35%
I have much less to say about Isaac than Snake. Basically it comes down to this: it's either him or Shulk. Both are blond male JRPG protagonists, both will elicit a "who?" from the general public at large, and both are sword fighters with magic abilities. I know this is far from an original conclusion, but I think Chrom's disconfirmation has proven that Sakurai does not like redundancy in the roster. Right now, it's looking like Shulk is more likely, given X's upcoming release, Monolith Soft's obsession with retweeting Sakurai, and the Gematsu leak, which I sort of still believe.

Want- 70%
I have not played Xenoblade or the Golden Sun games, but I definitely want Isaac more than Shulk. Isaac, aesthetically, has much more going for him. It may be difficult for people who have played and fallen and love with Xenoblade to appreciate this, but Shulk is literally the most generic looking jrpg protagonist possible. Isaac has his own identity and just looks more like a Nintendo character. In addition, Isaac has telekinesis and rock magic, while all Shulk has is a sword that can predict the future or something. Isaac sounds like much more fun to play as in Smash. Just the "push" attack that he had as an assist trophy alone would make for an awesome and unique special. Unfortunately, it looks like they're going with Shulk, but I'm personally still holding out hope that we get Isaac instead. I think the fact that we still haven't seen his assist trophy is either a great sign or simply means he's not appearing at all.

Predictions
Dr. Mario- 1%
He's going to be a costume.

Bowser Jr.- 5%
I never understood the enthusiasm for this character in the first place, but regardless, I seriously doubt we're getting another Mario newcomer, and if we do, it had better be Captain Toad.

Oh, I agree with you on if Snake isn't back, its not because of Kojima or Sakurai. Fact is, I don't think Snake is back, and its probably due to Nintendo not wanting to promote a franchise that isn't being put on Nintendo consoles. As for Snake's moveset, yes, it was very unique, and I don't think Sakurai would abandon it. Which is why I think if he can't bring Snake back, he might give the moveset to Sami from Advance Wars, as its a long-running series that, even if its not the most popular, does deserve representation.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Isaac
Chance- 30%
Same as last time. I think? I didn't look.
Want- 100%
Dat moveset.
I'd be thrilled if both Isaac and Shulk got in so the ridiculous "wars" some people have will finally end. I don't think as many people really dislike one or the other as much as it is put on, but I'd like those that do to stop as I can feel unfair bias against Shulk beginning to nag at the corner of my mind.

Snake
Chance- 35%
I don't see him getting in at this point. Like many others have said, I feel like he should have been revealed by now and the emphasis on the "Big Four" of gaming just doesn't include him. I can still see it happening, yeah, but...
Want- 30%
Don't think he belongs in Smash, but would have some empathy for his cut. I'd still prefer to see his moveset divided up or partially given to someone else (Advance Wars rep, perhaps?)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Snake: 10% I don't see him coming back.
Want: 0%

Isaac: 25%
Want: 50%

Dr. Mario: 3.42%
Bowser Jr.: 12%

 

[Pureownege75]

Snake
Chance: 15%
The fact that he is THE character that introduced 3rd party characters into smash is a redeeming factor, but his chances aren't looking good. His ties with Nintendo were already pretty poor per-Brawl, and they have seemed to only gotten worse. Between Brawl and Smash 4, one game appeared on a Nintendo console, a remake. That's not good enough imo. If hes' not shown before the game is released, he won't be in, because all 3rd party characters are always shown prior to release, even Sonic who's a veteran

Want: 50%
Eh, I never really played him. He didn't fit into Smash very well, but he was a fun, off-the wall addition, but I really wouldn't be too upset to see him gone

Isaac
Chance: abstain
Barely know anything about his franchise. From what I've heard, he wasn't even in later Golden Sun entries (not 100% sure on that). The fact that Little Mac got the promotion, and that we haven't seen him as an Assist Trophy help his cause, but again, I don't want to put a rating on something I'm so unfamiliar with, and I'm too lazy to research him lol

Want: 10%
Never played any of his games, so I really don't care if he gets in or not. I know he's got a lot of fans, so I'd be happy for them if he gets in

 

[Xenigma]

Isaac - 25%
With Gematsu no longer being a major obstacle, Isaac returns as a strong competitor for Smash inclusion: he's a popular request, Golden Sun sold better than some franchises already in Smash, he has more moveset potential than virtually any other character, and being from an unrepped franchise seemingly helps given 6/11 newcomers so far fit that description (6/10 if you exclude Lucina as a clone). Also, while neither of these necessarily helps, Dark Dawn's existence (regardless of quality/sales) and Golden Sun being one of the first GBA virtual console releases shows the franchise continues to be important to Nintendo, plus Isaac remains conspicuously missing from the assist trophy line-up much like how Ridley still being confirmed as a boss helps his case. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to give him a relatively low rating as his closest competition in Shulk seems more likely than not and, given Sakurai noted pre-Robin/Lucina reveal that we were nearing the end of newcomer reveals, it would seem there are precious few slots left for Isaac to potentially fill. Isaac feels more likely for DLC than anything else right now, but as I said a few days ago, him being on the disc now feels all too tantalizingly possible.
Want - 100% - My most wanted newcomer by far.

Snake - 25%
My opinion on Snake's chances is heavily colored by the picture of the day from E3 with Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man all posing together. It was a pretty clear signal that that was the third party line-up, that was who we should be excited for, and we really shouldn't expect anyone else. Considering that Snake's inclusion in Brawl had more to with Kojima than his meager Nintendo association, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him be cut for SSB4. Nevertheless, being a massively popular character with an established Smash moveset and heritage (the first ever third-party rep!) and the potential Kojima/Sakurai factor means we can't count him out yet. Not counting on his inclusion, but it's certainly possible.
Want - 100% - Was a fantastic inclusion in Brawl despite seeming an unusual pick and one who I'd be thrilled to see return.

 

[cmbsfm]

Issac 60%- since he wasn't shown of as an assist trophy gives me hope he is in.
want - 90% I have not played golden sun but he looks cool and I welcome more characters.

Snake- 70% - Well, the only things against him is pacman,sonic,megaman,and mario being paired to together often and MGS5 not coming to wii u. Konami probably wouldn't say no, Kojima wouldn't say no, Sakurai probably won't say no, but Nintendo might.
If you look at his situation in brawl
Twin Snakes- Mgs4. Twin snakes came out the gen before brawl and mgs4 was coming out to ps3 as an exclusive, due to the fact wii was too weak handle it and xbox360 disks couldn't hold the game, (also sony probably threw money at them too.)
now
snake eater 3d-MGS5
Snake eater 3d came out in the same gen as smash 4, seems like a plus for him right? Then you see MGS5, which is coming to every home console (and maybe pc) except wii u, although wii u version wasn't out right deconfirmed, it still doesn't look too good. MGS4 was an exclusive, which was understandable,but MGS5 is multiplat and is not coming to wii u(even though it could handle it.) Nintendo might not like that. There could be a wii u version that could be announced along his reveal, but not likely.

But there are pluses for him. His inclusion attracts MGS fans to the game, which exposes them to nintendo characters. He was a unique character, brought something to smash no other character could. Not to mention sakurai is a mgs fan.
I have hope he is in, maybe might be the last reveal before release. Snake, keeping us waiting as usual.

want - 100% - I don't think I need to explain myself here.

 

[Pacack]

Isaac:

Chance: 15%
He has a lot going for him, but I feel like other characters ultimately out-prioritize him.

Want: Abstain


Snake:

Chance: 20%
I don't think it's likely at this point, but he's not out of the running since Kojima's a troll.

Want: 60%
I don't care for him, but I want him back for those who do.


Predictions:
Dr. Mario: 7.5%
Slight increase because of Lucina, but not anything notable.
Bowser Jr.: 30%

 

[Your Hero]

A lot of people are saying they haven't played Golden Sun so they're abstaining from voting. The first game is available on the Wii U's Virtual eshop for about $8 (more or less, can't remember off the top of my head) - it's worth checking out!

Isaac:

Want: 40%

If you had asked me this a couple of months ago, I would have this guy on the 70's and 80's, but as of right now, I have to agree with Sakurai in the "Just another swordsman." I might get man-mud flinged at me for saying this, but alot of J-RPG characters are kinda all the same. I've never seen anything truly unique in any of modern J-RPG's and... ...Well, I'm getting a little bored of the current JRPG line up, especially if Shulk, Isaac's biggest competition makes it in.

He's less of a "generic swordsman" than Robin is. He doesn't need to change classes in order to use an axe or a mace, and 95% of his attacks are energy/magic based (comparable to Ness and Lucas).

 

[JaidynReiman]

A lot of people are saying they haven't played Golden Sun so they're abstaining from voting. The first game is available on the Wii U's Virtual eshop for about $8 (more or less, can't remember off the top of my head) - it's worth checking out!



He's less of a "generic swordsman" than Robin is. He doesn't need to change classes in order to use an axe or a mace, and 95% of his attacks are energy/magic based (comparable to Ness and Lucas).

Neither Robin nor Isaac are "generic swordsman." Isaac only has a couple of different sword attacks anyway, the entire thing going for him is his massive list of earth-based Psynergy alone, coupled with potentially digging into other Psynergy a little bit, and especially all of the different types of move Psynergy.

Basically, Isaac's potential is entirely on Psynergy, which works nothing like FE tomes anyway.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Neither Robin nor Isaac are "generic swordsman." Isaac only has a couple of different sword attacks anyway, the entire thing going for him is his massive list of earth-based Psynergy alone, coupled with potentially digging into other Psynergy a little bit, and especially all of the different types of move Psynergy.

Basically, Isaac's potential is entirely on Psynergy, which works nothing like FE tomes anyway.

Don't forget all the Djinn he can use...

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

I'm abstaining from Isaac entirely because I don't believe I know enough about him to know if he'll get in OR if I want him in.

However...

Snake-
Chance: 5% In my opinion, the ONLY thing Snake has going for him this time around is that he's a veteran, hence his 5%. However we currently have 3 third parties, which is already one more than the last game. And Snake feels really out of place in Smash. I don't believe he'll be back.

Want: 0% He was fun and all, but I don't want him back. I want characters who are actually relevant to Nintendo.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Isaac
Chance: 25%
We already have a lot of anime-looking swordfighter, and, if we would get another, he would probably be Shulk due to his great request in Japan.
Want: 50%
As Shulk, if he is in or not, I wouldn't mind.

Snake
Chance: 50%
He had some points for being in (veteran, unique moveset, only rep of a series ecc) but he also had some points Againist him.
Want: 100%
I loved his playstyle, and after his inclusion I've discovered the MGS series, and I love it!

 

[Burigu]

Isaac:
Chance: 15%
Despite Isaac being clearly different from Robin or the other sword users, I can't see he has a good chance, Shulk is STILL EXTREMELY likely (not saying they are competing with each other) because of Monolith retweet of past monday reveal, they obviously helped Sakurai into trolling everyone into believing it was Shulk the character to be revealed

I don't like to say "to many sword users" because they mostly have their own style and bring something different to the game, but with Link, Toon Link, Marth, Ike, Lucina, Robin and the inminent return of Meta Knight, maybe Sakurai might skip on another potencial sword user. And in case someone tries to point me Psyenegy, Djinn and summons I am familiar with the series, so I know he can be pretty unique. This is more about thematic saturation.

Want: 20% Played all three games got a better conection with every other character than Isaac, Matthew look more badass in my opinion, and I wouldn't mind Jenna either.

Snake:
Chance: 20%
I have a feeling he might return but let's stay in the pesimistic expecturm for this. In my eyes 3 third parties are enough this is about Nintendo all stars.
Some people here claim Sakurai and Kojima being friends as the ONLY factor to consider Snake is really likely. No people this is not only about two friends, this is about companies specially NINTENDO, Sakurai might be the mastermind behind Smash BUT NINTENDO is the company behind him, if for some reason Nintendo doesn't want Snake in the game, then no matter what Sakurai wants or Kojima wants, Snake won't be in the game.

I don't see Snake Eater as the potencial deal for Nintendo to put Snake, after all it's only a remake while Sony gets the good brand new stuff. I fail to see how a remake stands the same relevance as the new games Nintendo isn't getting.

Want: 9%
I have to say I REALLY REALLY like Snake as a character, I recognoize he is unique and Metal Gear music is outstanding.
Yet I see Snake much more conected with Sony and Microsoft than with Nintendo, I wasn't really happy to see 3rd parties back in brawl, but I can accept Sonic, Pacman and Megaman since they have a bigger background with Nintendo than Snake.
At this point it is apparent to me that Kojima and Konami only see Nintendo as REMAKE material

 

[Erimir]

-Development on Smash 4 started in around March of 2012, right after the release of Kid Icarus: Uprising. Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D released in North America in February 2012 and worldwide in early March. This means that when the roster list was being put together, a heavily promoted Metal Gear title developed by Kojima himself had literally just been released on a Nintendo console. If Snake isn't in Smash 4, "relevance to Nintendo" isn't why.

I think you're making a number of assumptions about how the development process goes.

There's no reason to think that it's the case that Sakurai decided on the roster in March 2012 and it was finalized then. Most likely Snake was not one of the highest priority characters even if he is in. If Snake had not had significant work put into him for a while, that means they could've changed their minds about him for months afterwards, maybe even a year later. There's more flexibility there than you're making it out to be.

I also don't think that an MGS remake means that he doesn't have problems with relevance. The fact is that he's been primarily a Sony character. Now he's going onto Xbox as well... While Nintendo has gotten scraps that are several years late. Nintendo might've hoped to get more support from Konami by promoting Snake. What they got wasn't much. Now even the Castlevania series isn't getting games on Nintendo, which for a long while was releasing more titles on Nintendo handhelds than anywhere else.

More importantly, what we see and what Nintendo sees are not the same - they are likely aware of Konami's development plans for their consoles well in advance. It's not like they saw MGS on 3DS in March and they didn't know that Konami wasn't going to release anything else in the near future. They probably already knew that Konami was not going to support the Wii U. By mid-2012, it was probably also clear that Konami had abandoned the 3DS as well.

They've known for plenty of Smash 4's development time about Konami's plans (or lack thereof) for the Wii U and 3DS. So I think relevancy is a major concern for Snake's chances from Nintendo's perspective (but perhaps not Sakurai's).

It's worth noting that this was just over two years ago, meaning Metal Gear has had a title released on a Nintendo console more recently than Mega Man, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, and Mother.

The only one of those that is even plausibly relevant is Mega Man. The difference is that Mega Man has had no games released or in development (at least publicly) since 2011. Mega Man Legends 3 was in development for 3DS. On the other hand, it has been clear this whole time that Playstation (and Xbox) get priority for Metal Gear games.

And Mega Man's connection to Nintendo is much stronger, with Mega Man being a larger series than Metal Gear on the NES and SNES, and keeping strong support for Nintendo handhelds all the way until the 3DS (when Mega Man development stopped). Almost every portable Mega Man game has been on Nintendo - 28 out of 37 portable titles. And most of the ones on other portables were ports or remakes. The use of classic Mega Man shows that they're playing up his old school history with Nintendo.

Mega Man vs. Snake on Nintendo relevance is not much of a contest. At any rate, Mega Man's inclusion is much more a way to promote Smash - and it was clearly hype creating. Mega Man fans are probably more likely to be Nintendo fans than Metal Gear fans are. I think Mega Man probably is more helpful to Nintendo's marketing than Snake would be.

 

[loganhogan]

Snake
chance 10%
want 0%

He's a third party character and also a veteran so there's a chance of him returning. I would be surprised if he returned, some of his moveset has been transferred to other characters or items so I get the feeling he's not going to return as anything but a trophy. Still that's not to say he's impossible after all he is a veteran. I don't want him to return I feel like it would be out of place to let him in again especially because MGS is supporting everyone else but Nintendo, Sakurai did his friend the favor once and I think that's good enough.

Isaac
chance 25%
want 0%

I think this guy missed the train already but I wouldn't be surprised if he was included though. Golden Sun is a three game series so it's deserving to have a character but popular as he's claimed to be he's not the only candidate for Golden Sun.

 

[Weeman]

Isaac
Chance: 40% Sadly nothing seems to be pointing towards him, doesn't help that the last Golden Sun game flopped.
Want: 80% He deserves to be in in my opinion, but i haven't played Golden Sun.

Snake
Chance: 50% At this point, who knows
Want: 100% One of my favorites from Brawl, and i love the MGS series.

Nomination: Groose's hair x13546

 

[AustarusIV]

Isaac
Chance: 45%
At this point, who knows? But I have my doubts.
Want: 95%
Definitely.

Snake
Chance: 10%
Sorry, but I think he already had his once-in-a-lifetime chance in Brawl.
Want: 60%
Never got into MGS, but I'd feel sorry for his fans.

 

[MegaLagann]

Snake

Chance - 10 % - I love the Metal Gear series and I thought Snake was a great addition to Brawl. He had a unique moveset and the fact that his design stood out so much made him ironically blend in due to Metal Gear's cheeky sense of humor. But with Metal Gear becoming so distant to Nintendo I feel Snake's chances are very, VERY low at this point. The only reason he's even at 10% is because part of me feels like Sakurai wouldn't want to let go of such a unique character. But considering how hard Sakurai was pushing Mega Man, Sonic and Pac Man at E3 I feel those are the final third party characters, sadly.

Want - 100% - A unique fighter from a series I love? Why wouldn't I want him back.

Isaac

Chance - 20 % - I know a lot of people here want Isaac in, but with the roster almost finished Isaac is looking less and less likely. While popular in the West he's not requested much at all in Japan (and characters like Little Mac, getting added due to Western popularity, are the exception), but the most damning reason for Isaac exclusion is Golden Sun's lack of relevancy. Some have pointed out that every 1st party newcomer this time around is from a series relevant in the Wii/DS/3DS era. Sure there was Dark Dawn, but we all know that game did not do well, so much so that the fourth game is on an indefinite hiatus. Unless Nintendo plans to do a Golden Sun comeback, which seeing the sales for the last game seems unlikely, I think Isaac's chance to be playable was in Brawl and like in Brawl I expect him to come back as a assist trophy.

Want - 5 % - Let me explain before you set me on fire. After years of having the game hyped up I finally played Golden Sun and it was...okay. The only thing that stood out to me was the music. Nothing personal to fans of Isaac but I thought his games were average and I think there's more deserving series out there to be represented in Smash Bros.

 

[WertQuadNine]

Isaac - 35% Chance | 100% Want
Hasn't had any popular games recently, so there's that, but I loved the original GS and would LOVE for him to be added.

Snake - 10% Chance | 3% Want
He seemed like a brawl exclusive and that's what I want him to be.

 

[Garteam]

Snake, the man who kept us waiting
Chance - 50%, so little info has been laid down with him, it's hard to make a judgement, I'll just go with 50%
Want - 100%, It would be weird if he was the only cut (not counting Squirtle and Ivysaur)

Issac, he who has synergy
Chance - 20%, Probably the character to be hurt by Robin the most, his niche was taken, and while that doesn't count him out for a roster spot, he still has to compete with the far more likely Shulk. We can only have so many obscure magic and sword wielding RPG characters.

Want - 50%, Eh...

 

[Deleted member]

Whew! Sorry that I'm a bit late! But holy cow; over 60 people participated in this! Now, it's time to end this day!

DAY OVER!
SNAKE? SNAKE. SNAAAAAAAAAAAKE!
ISAAC? ISAAC. ISAAAAAAAAAAAAAC!​

 

[mini paincakes]

Snake- 45% Not sure what's going to happen with him, but he seems slightly more unlikely than likely.
Want- 100%- I love Snake.

Isaac- Chance- 40% I have no idea what's going to happen with him.
Want- 70% He seems pretty cool, never played Golden Sun though.

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac
Chance: 36.29% (was 30.40%)
Want: 70.07% (was 72.56%)
The scales have been tipped for this Robin!... kind of. Now with the demise of the Gematsu leak, Isaac's chance score has risen! Unfortunately, his want has slightly dropped and he barely broke the 70% barrier. Still, he is one of our most wanted characters on this board.

Snake
Chance: 35.03% (was 28.51%)
Want: 55.46% (was 61.98%)
Snake's chances have been looking more solid now! His chance nearly went up by 6%! However, he wasn't so sneaky in terms of want, which didn't even get above 61%. A lot of you love him, but a lot of you want him to stay away.

Today... I'm having a fever and some chills. Who can help cure these? The worst doctor ever is back in town! Dr. Mario has shown up and he wants to prove himself that he can become a character of his own! Will he join the roster again? Alongside him is his sick patient Bowser Jr. The Koopa Prince is demanding a re-rate as well! Is it possible that he could join the roster as a semi-clone and such? Please rate Dr. Mario and Bowser Jr. in chance and want today!

Tomorrow, we are dealing with two shadowy figures. One of them hides in it to strike while the other is masked around an evil shadowy aura. I'm only referring to Takamaru and Black Shadow of course! Please predict how Takamaru and Black Shadow will fare in tomorrow's game!

Nominations are still on hold!!!

Schedule:
Day 279: Shulk, Chorus Kids, and Gematsu
Day 280: Dark Pit and RoyDay 281: Dixie Kong and Lucas
Day 282: K. Rool and Mewtwo
Day 283: Snake and Isaac
Day 284: Dr. Mario and Bowser Jr.
Day 285: Takamaru and Black Shadow

@ Gunla
@FalKoopa
Can one of you please change that title of the day? I can't for obvious reasons.

 

[Gunla]

@Brawler610
Thou hast summoned me, and I have completed thy request.

Seeing how I'm holding off on ratings, I predict a 44% for Takamaru and 20% for Black Shadow.

 

[Deleted member]

@Brawler610
Thou hast summoned me, and I have completed thy request.

Thank you, my good sir!
And with that, Dr. Mario and Bowser Jr. have been added to the Directory.

If you have rated these two, check to see what you've said on their days!

I'll rate tomorrow. I won't be updating tomorrow; Groose will!

 

[Thereallucario]

I guess I'll go then.

Dr. Mario Chance: 5%
He stands a better chance as a alt. skin for Mario then a full character. he has no real... uniqueness that is needed from a rep.
I don't see a situation where this would be a good choice or fair rep. there are so many other possible reps.

Dr. Mario Want: 0%
No strait up obvious clones please. I don't know if this is true so I don't mean to insult you if so, but the main reason people want him back I think is pure nostalgia. It goes back to Roy. Roy had one game back in the day never released outside of the states and he is a hugely requested character. Why? Its because of melee and fond memories. I like melee too, but this is no real reason to get back strait up clones. And I can guarantee this won't be the last time with these characters.

Bowser Jr. Chances: 40%
Its clear to me that Bowser Jr. would be the next in line rep for Mario right next to paper Mario. But the main reason that I keep myself from making his chance higher that is not other possible characters is the six character thing. I believe it will happen, but im not going to get my bias in the way for this. The chance WOULD be 60%, but then again... Sakurai is Sakurai.

Bowser Jr. Want: 70%
Yeah. sounds good to me.

 

[Smasher 101]

Dr. Mario's chances: 1% - More likely to be an costume.
Want: 0% - As an alternate costume? Absolutely. As a separate character? Absolutely not.

Bowser Jr.'s chances: 7% - Most likely Mario character left but I still don't see a second newcomer happening.
Want: 100% - Yep.

Takamaru prediction: 42.18%
Black Shadow prediction: 22.18%

 

[andimidna]

Yes! I have muh laptop again!

Bowser Jr: 20%
I still think he has a decent shot. He could either work as a Squirtle replacement or a Bowser semi-clone. Getting in as a unique character based off his own merits? Sorry, but I only see that as a 1% chance at this point.
The Mario series is an easy series to pick a clone from. As Pokemon probably has 6, Zelda might have 6, and a unique 6th Mario character looks very unlikely now. Sakurai could add these to appease the fans that wanted other characters (that aren't Rosalina) and people who are OCD and will freak out if other series' get more slots than Mario.

Want: 35%
I've been thinking a lot about clones lately, and I made up a hilarious idea for Daisy that I want. And it's really the only Mario semi-clone I want at this point. But more on that after I nominate her in a few days


Dr. Mario: 5%
Basically what I said about Bowser Jr, just without the fan demand, being able to replace a removed character from Brawl, and being able to be a clone of a character that doesn't already have a semi-clone.
He is possible now, but I'm hopeful that they'll think a little harder than something like this.... it's just, so boring.
Edit: I didn't remember that thing Sakurai said about Dr. Mario and fireballs...
*sigh* looks like he actually has a decent shot.
Chance: 40%

Want: 1%
He goes against both my clone rules.
He'd be a returning clone of the same character (as in, I've already played as him and he's just Mario in a costume)
Boring.
I'd rather play as Luigi than any version of Mario. Even Paper Mario as a clone of Mario wouldn't really excite me, but he's still a cooler pick. I don't think there's a Mario series clone that would be less exciting than Dr. Mario.

Pre:
Takamaru: 49%
"No! He can't be in becuz Gerninjer has Sherikuns!!"
Lucina wakes her blade!
Invalid arguments just turned in his favor, how ironic.
Black Shadow: 20%
Meh. Can Blaziken please be our new Captain Falcon clone instead?
Please?
...

Although it would be fun to do a CFalcon vs Ganondorf vs Black Shadow vs Blaziken battle. Battle of the Pawnch!
Nah... that would be overkill. Still, he is popular enough to have a clone (just like Fox and Marth), so if Ganondorf is unique, he is looking good... but will he be? That's the question.
...Man that villains trailer can't come any faster, can it?

 

[Leafeon523]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 2% (as a character) 25% (as an alt.)
There's no real reason for him to be re-added.
Want: 0% (As a character) 100% (as an alt.)
He's the perfect example of a great alternate costume.

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 10%
I've lost hope for Mario getting 2 characters.
Want: 76%
I think he would be cool to play as.

Takamaru: 38%
Black Shadow: 17%

 

[Skyfox2000]

Snake

Chance: 70% Solid Snake the Legendary Mercenary, The Man who make's the impossible possible. I can't really think of nothing to go against him. I wouldn't take the Kojima interview as a disconfirmation because I don't think he would act like that if he knew his Beloved Creation wouldn't going to be in the best Crossover Fighting game of this generation I would really be upset. I would say Metal Gear does have a pretty rich history with Nintendo. If wouldn't for Metal Gear NES being so successful and selling over 1 million copies Kojima would never continued the series. MGS: The Twin Snake's can be considered one of the best Third Party Game's for the NGC of all time and with Legendary developer Shigeru Miyamoto over-seeing development. The most recent MGS game on a Nintendo platform was 2012 Snake Eater 3D which is getting a E-Shop release soon to NA and JP
https://twitter.com/NintendoEurope/status/482931681419358209. I don't think Nintendo would mind keeping Snake there pretty much now catering to there Fanbase now with Operation Rainfall coming to NA and Earthbound coming to the Wii U VC in NA as well. Were pretty much in the same shoes as we were in Brawl, MGS4 released like what 2 months after Brawl released and pretty much limited the "Promotional Material" They was just the Love Theme (Brawl Remix) and a Gekko appearing in the Background of Shadow Moses.

Want: 100% One of my favorite characters of all time I would really be upset if he didn't return and many others in the Competitive Scene would be too!

Isaac

Chance: 40% I hope he upgrade from Assist Trophy to Playable status like Little Mac. He hasn't been deconfirmed yet so there's still hope I just hope he don't end up like Saki from Sin&Punsihment. I don't know if he would be added or not Golden Sun isn't too popular as a franchise. then there this tweet from Sakurai a Canadian fan

Sakurai response

This could be fake but who knows

Want: 30% Never played a Golden Sun game don't know much about maybe i'll get my hands on one someday.
EDIT: I know im late please do not delete this.

 

[Garteam]

Dr. Mario, exterminator of fevers and chills
Chance - 0.5%, If alt. skins were a thing in Melee, he wouldn't have been playable. Alt. skins are a thing now, if he's in the game, he's one.

Want - 0, Unnecessary clone is unnecessary

Bowser Jr. , Lean, green fighting machine
Chance - 5%, I just don't see a 6th Mario rep, even then if he's more deserving than Captain Toad or Paper Mario is all based on opinion.

Want - 70%, He's my 3rd most wanted Mario character and is pretty much the 2nd most important Mario villain at this point. Way more deserving than Rosalina imo.

 

[Burigu]

Chance: 40% I hope he upgrade from Assist Trophy to Playable status like Little Mac. He hasn't been deconfirmed yet so there's still hope I just hope he don't end up like Saki from Sin&Punsihment. I don't know if he would be added or not Golden Sun isn't too popular as a franchise. then there this tweet from Sakurai a Canadian fan

Sakurai response

This could be fake but who knows

Want: 30% Never played a Golden Sun game don't know much about maybe i'll get my hands on one someday.
EDIT: I know im late please do not delete this.

Confirmed fake! Think about it would Sakurai spoil it's own game randomly in twitter, I don't think so.

Why give a total stranger that info? don't make any sense. Sakurai going around ruining the surprises for his own game in such a cheap way? yeah not happening like in NEVER.

 

[Leafeon523]

Isaac

Chance: 40% I hope he upgrade from Assist Trophy to Playable status like Little Mac. He hasn't been deconfirmed yet so there's still hope I just hope he don't end up like Saki from Sin&Punsihment. I don't know if he would be added or not Golden Sun isn't too popular as a franchise. then there this tweet from Sakurai a Canadian fan

Sakurai response

This could be fake but who knows

Want: 30% Never played a Golden Sun game don't know much about maybe i'll get my hands on one someday.
EDIT: I know im late please do not delete this.

That tweet is fake. I remember people making such a joke out of it one time when we rated Isaac.

 

[andimidna]

Snake

Chance: 70% Solid Snake the Legendary Mercenary, The Man who make's the impossible possible. I can't really think of nothing to go against him. I wouldn't take the Kojima interview as a disconfirmation because I don't think he would act like that if he knew his Beloved Creation wouldn't going to be in the best Crossover Fighting game of this generation I would really be upset. I would say Metal Gear does have a pretty rich history with Nintendo. If wouldn't for Metal Gear NES being so successful and selling over 1 million copies Kojima would never continued the series. MGS: The Twin Snake's can be considered one of the best Third Party Game's for the NGC of all time and with Legendary developer Shigeru Miyamoto over-seeing development. The most recent MGS game on a Nintendo platform was 2012 Snake Eater 3D which is getting a E-Shop release soon to NA and JP
https://twitter.com/NintendoEurope/status/482931681419358209. I don't think Nintendo would mind keeping Snake there pretty much now catering to there Fanbase now with Operation Rainfall coming to NA and Earthbound coming to the Wii U VC in NA as well. Were pretty much in the same shoes as we were in Brawl, MGS4 released like what 2 months after Brawl released and pretty much limited the "Promotional Material" They was just the Love Theme (Brawl Remix) and a Gekko appearing in the Background of Shadow Moses.

Want: 100% One of my favorite characters of all time I would really be upset if he didn't return and many others in the Competitive Scene would be too!

Isaac

Chance: 40% I hope he upgrade from Assist Trophy to Playable status like Little Mac. He hasn't been deconfirmed yet so there's still hope I just hope he don't end up like Saki from Sin&Punsihment. I don't know if he would be added or not Golden Sun isn't too popular as a franchise. then there this tweet from Sakurai a Canadian fan

Sakurai response

This could be fake but who knows

Want: 30% Never played a Golden Sun game don't know much about maybe i'll get my hands on one someday.
EDIT: I know im late please do not delete this.

Once again, if that was real, we'd all be giving Isaac a 100%
Genope amirite?
But like Burigu said, it's fake.

That tweet is fake. I remember people making such a joke out of it one time when we rated Isaac.

Hah! That's right! I remember that.
I want to go find that day...