Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Deleted member]

I want this so much now. With each passing moment I'm more and more excited by Shulk and in part I blame brawler610 for that.

Hahaha! I'm sorry! ^^" Hopefully he doesn't disappoint!

Is it weird that I really, really want him even though I've never played his game? That says a lot.

Nah. It isn't weird. I wanted Shulk in Smash prior to when I played Xenoblade, though not as much of course.

 

[Robertman2]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 90%
Want: 75% I don't really want Chrom all that much.

Chrom:
Chance: 50% This could either way. Chrom has the benefit of being in the Gematsu leak, but Lucina was in the Amiibo trailer. Also, three blue haired swordsmen would be somewhat redundant.
Want: 1% GIVE MEH LUCINA OR ROBIN PLEASE!!!
Shulk:
Chance: 75% Protagonist of a recent, popular, Nintendo game, cool moveset potential
Want: 100% I love Xenoblade, and would love to see what they do with Shulk for Smash.
Chorus Men:
Abstain.

 

[Deleted member]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 90% - Would be 100% for me, because I believe it's true, but that part about Lucas seems kind of strange. It's worded so that it's true if either scenario happens. I also don't understand how DLC works considering both consoles have the same roster. Is it possible to sync thins to your account and have it work for both consoles?

Want: 95% - I don't care if Chrom, Shulk, or Chorus Men happen, but Lucas being cut would make me sad, and feel strange, as no series has ever gone down in representation, character-wise. Dr. Mario does not count, as Wario is technically a subseries of Mario. Even if he does get cut though, I'll get over it eventually. Probably.


Chrom:

Chance: 90% - Robin / Lucina do exist, but I think he's extremely likely.

Want: 100% - I don't want him for his character, (I find him bland) nor do I want him for his possible gameplay, (he'd do exactly what you would think he would do; swing his sword) but I want him for the sake of the newer Fire Emblem fans who were introduced to the series through Awakening. I keep hearing that Awakening saved the franchise, and if that's true, it deserves a character, if only as a thank you to the fans who kept the series alive. Whether or not that character is Chrom, I don't care, I just really want an Awakening character.


Shulk:

Chance: 95% - No Xenoblade content has been shown as of yet, but unlike Chrom and Chrous Men, no other Xenoblade character could steal Shulk's spot, and unlike the former two, where an enemy from Rhythm Heaven hints to any Rhythm Heaven character, and Arena Ferox could be any Awakening character, if a Xenoblade item, stage, or assist trophy was revealed (unless the assist trophy in question was Shulk) it would basically confirm him. There is no one else it could hint to.

Want: 100% - Absolutely. I have never played Xenoblade, but I am going to search all over for it once I start working. I hear it's amazing. (Slightly less so if you hate grinding, but still great) Everyone I talked to at Smashfest was divided on the leak, except for Shulk. Everyone seemed to want this guy, myself included, even if I haven't played Xenoblade. In addition, we get Shulk and a Xenoblade stage, Xenoblade music in Smash Bros. YES.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 85% - Seem much more likely with the Sneaky Spirit, but again, like with Chrom, there are other Rhythm Heaven characters.

Want: 100% - I would like to see them confirmed, just to see what they do with this character. If Mii has taught me anything, it's that you wait until the character is shown in the game to judge them as a "bad" choice, and even then, Chorus Men fit in the obscure niche nicely. Smash Bros. got me interested in all kinds of franchises I would never play otherwise, and maybe if Chorus Men are fun to use, I might get into Rhythm Heaven.

 

[Pacack]

Proof of disconfirmation?

Same thing that disconfirmed Daitoryo. Color TV Game 15 is the oldest Nintendo product in the game, and it was released in 1978. The Nintendo Joker was created in 1960 at the latest (probably more like 1940, and possibly even in the company's early years).

For those of you wondering, here's an introduction to the Joker(s) that I wrote up:

Meet the Joker(s):

The above are Nintendo's two most prominent Joker designs. Likely created sometime from 1940-1960, the Jokers are the only really prominent original Nintendo characters from the company's toy era (1956–1974). Usually, only one design was in a deck, but they did occasionally appear together, as seen in the last photo.

What brought them to my attention was the second picture. It's taken from the current Nintendo of Japan website. They still use the Joker (at least the first one, possibly the second as well) today in their trump card decks (aka traditional playing card decks).

I found them when looking for characters to represent Nintendo's toy era, and they were the only prominent, Nintendo-owned characters created in that time frame that I could find. As representatives of that era, they could draw inspiration from various Nintendo toys created in that time, such as the Ultra Hand, the Ultra Machine, the Ultra Scope, the Love Tester, the Billion Barrel, the Chiritorie, N&B blocks, People House dolls, Hip Flip, Challenge Dice(/Chaotic Cubes), the Mamaberica, the Jumping Bottle, the Light Telephone, Space Balls, and various other bits and bobs from Nintendo's many decks, board games, and puzzles (and other toys that I didn't mention). This would give them moveset potential that rivals even Mr. Game and Watch's, which could be used for one of the most zany and fun movesets in Smash Bros. history. (Please note that the first Joker design is only slightly more prominent than the mermaid, and that a dual character is always possible, and even fitting in this case, which only increases their potential.)

 

[Sid-cada]

Gematsu Leak

Chance - 87.25% - At the very least, the leak was true at some point. There is a chance that the information is somewhat outdated, which the 10% represents.

Want - 0% - There is no bright light at the end of this tunnel. No characters I want are on the list that have not been confirmed, so that's what's left. Ugh.


Chrom

Chance - 90% - Good chance, but may have been dropped/swapped out for other characters.

Want - 20% - Chrom, to be honest, doesn't even feel like settling for second best. Ugh. I'd rather them get represented through other means, rather than playable, and has few redeeming qualities. Give me Roy, Anna, or Robin over him.


Shulk

Chance - 95% - Slightly higher, as he has less "completion" than Chrom.

Want - 50% - Don't really care one way or another.


Chorus Men - 60% - Possible, but there could be another Rhythm Heaven Character, or something else.

Want - 35% - Bleh. Still think Joe would be best.


Predictions

K. Rool - 65.38% - Plummeting like a rock.

Dixe - 25.35% - Same thing.

 

[Erimir]

...I'm not really sure why blue hair matters. Ike has blue hair and is fundamentally different from Marth, unlike Roy (and Chrom, of course), seeing as he is scruffier-looking than Marth, is a mercenary as opposed to a royal youth and has a much more different type of sword to boot.

It's not that important.

It just drives home how same-y the Fire Emblem protagonists are. So Ike is a merc not a lord, I got that wrong. But with Chrom they'll all be male blue-haired sword-users, probably all with counter attack moves.

I'm just bored with it. Fire Emblem has female characters, it has people who use axes, spears, magic, etc., characters who look different, but all we get are blue-haired sword-using boys. Because Chrom was the protagonist of the latest game which was very successful, variety has to be thrown out the window. It makes it look like FE is a boy band. They're all "different" but not really.

Even if Chrom can be different, he's just less interesting than other potential FE reps, and also than a lot of characters from other series (Isaac, for example).

I will give them credit for making Ike look a lot better this time around, and more different.

I'll admit to not being a big fan of FE anyway, so it's not like Chrom would've gotten anything more than like 40% from me anyway - I wouldn't care at all if we got no FE newcomers (especially not if we could get a DK or Metroid newcomer instead).

I don't see why they wouldn't be. Sakurai isn't obligated to fulfill the leak perfectly, and each character has their own unique reasons both to be included and to possibly be cut/replaced in development. Getting all three remains the most likely scenario, and my number reflects that, but it also acknowledges that any of the three could individually run into trouble and "disprove" the leak.

Because the reason for thinking one might not happen is that the leaker didn't have information from the period when things were mostly nailed down, and things were still in flux. The more we see that is correct, the more likely it is that the leaker's info came from after things were pretty much finalized. If one thing doesn't come true, it makes it more likely that the others don't (e.g. if they hadn't truly decided on Chrom, then can we assume they had finalized the decision about Chorus Men? etc.), and vice versa.

IMO.

Shulk

E3 has actually made me feel Shulk's chances are lowered. By the sound of it, the new Xenoblade is a spiritual sequel - thus implying Shulk isn't in it. So then why would Nintendo want a guy from a single game - and who also isn't pure first party - to be in the game?

Well... if they want to rep the Xenoblade series they have to pick someone, and Shulk is the most obvious choice. If you think of it as marketing for the Xenoblade series, to raise the series' profile and maybe attract some RPG fans to the Wii U, it makes sense. Wii U needs all the help it can get and making people pay attention to the non-Mario/Pokemon/Zelda/DK games (which everyone already knows about) at least can't hurt. I dunno how much difference it would make, realistically, though.

Also Monolith is first party (like Retro), while Game Freak isn't first party. As long as they aren't 3rd party, they're fair game for Smash.

 

[Glaciacott]

You guys suck at not arguing. Remember what Groose asked for?

 

[Erimir]

I'm not arguing, I'm just gently offering my perspective

 

[Starcutter]

Gematsu: 75% chance it's true.
Want: 60% the big thig why I didn't want this was Pacman, but seeing as he's in no matter hwhat, I don't care anymore.

Chrom 75%
Want: 70% rather Robin.

Shulk 80% cause new Xeno game that Sakurai probably knew about
Want: 75% looks cool enough, not too much of a hype builder

Chorus Kids: Without Gematsu 4% (with gematsu 60% depending on if the guy was uninformed and they actually used Marshal)
Want: 20% Rather Marshal.

Nom nom nom:
Inklings for DLC (splatoon) x5

 

[Chandeelure]

The leak is real so...
-Everything:
Chances: 100%
Want: 65%

 

[Princess Toady]

Gematsu Leak :
Chances : 95%
Want : 0%

I don't know if it includes the DLC possibility so I excluded it in my rating.

 

[Senselessbreak]

Chrom:
Chance: 95%
-Chrom is the newest poster boy in town, and with Awakening referenced already, he has a huge chance.
Want: 90%

Shulk:
Chance: 80%- With Mechon trophies in smash run, it is very likely his series will have full reference in the game
Want: 100% -Best JRPG of last gen

Chorus Men:
Chance: 95%: Sneaky Spirit all but confirms them
Want: 100%


Overall Gematsu:

Chance: 95%
Want 100%

 

[Erimir]

The possibilities are kinda impossible to confirm anyway.

He says they're leaning towards DLC, but even if we don't get it that doesn't really mean he was wrong.

If both Lucas and Ness were cut I would count that as a ding, but that seems really really unlikely.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Leak: 50%.
Want: 0%.
Shulk: 50%.
Want: 0%.
Chrom: 75%.
Want: 50%.
Chorus: 10%.
Want: 65%.

 

[foolssigma]

Chrom:
Chance: 95%
-Chrom is the newest poster boy in town, and with Awakening referenced already, he has a huge chance.
Want: 90%

Shulk:
Chance: 80%- With Mechon trophies in smash run, it is very likely his series will have full reference in the game
Want: 100% -Best JRPG of last gen

Chorus Men:
Chance: 95%: Sneaky Spirit all but confirms them
Want: 100%


Overall Gematsu:

Chance: 95%
Want 100%

Where did you see Mechon trophies in smash run?

 

[SmasherMaster]

Chrom
Chance- 95%
Likely before the leak.

Want- 0%
I want Robin or even Lucina, Roy, or Anna.

Shulk
Chance- 95%
Again like Chrom. Likely before the leak.

Want- 100%
I would love Shulk.

Chorus Boys
Chance- 85%
Only thing going for him is the leak.

Want- 80%
Wouldn't mind.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Chrom
Chance- 95%
Likely before the leak.

Want- 0%
I want Robin or even Lucina, Roy, or Anna.

Shulk
Chance- 95%
Again like Chrom. Likely before the leak.

Want- 100%
I would love Shulk.

Chorus Boys
Chance- 85%
Only thing going for him is the leak.

Want- 80%
Wouldn't mind.

or Micaiah right? Right?

I abstained earlier for Gematsu, but I'll put my stuff up here instead.

Gematsu
Chance: 65% - No leak is real until the game is out, but this score is much higher than before.
Want: 0% - The only good thing about the leak (Palutena) is confirmed, so I could care less.

Predictions
King K Rool: 55%
Dixie Kong: 12%

 

[CanadianSmasher1992]

Gematsu Leak
- What it states: Chrom, Shulk, and Chorus Men are in; Lucas is most likely cut; DLC is planned

Reasons Supporting:
- Rythym Heaven enemy in Smash Run and so far Smash Run has not had an enemy that does not appear in a series that is already repped by a playable character
- Correctly guessed/leaked Wii Fit Trainer
- Referenced Mii as Mii Fighters

Reasons Against:
- Stated that Pac-Man, Little Mac and Mii would appear in E3 2013
- Referenced Palutena as "Goddess Palutena"

I feel like the cons in the Gematsu Leak can easily be explained away, while evidence that supports the leak is much harder to dismiss.

CHANCE: I'm giving this leak a 84% chance of being true.

WANT: 40% (points for Shulk and DLC being planned; major minus points for saying that Lucas is likely cut)

Shulk:
Chance: 89% - Despite Shulk not necessarily having a role in the new Xenoblade Chronicles, he is the main protagonist and star of the series as a whole, represents a new, popular IP, and is quite popular himself
Want: 89% - He looks really interesting and I'd really like to play as him. Plus he has an awesome British accent!

Chrom:
Chance: 86% - I believe last time I gave him a 60%, definitely the fact that the Gematsu leak is looking more and more like fact now, his chances have shot up. But only because the leak says Chrom is joining the cast! Additionally, he is the poster boy of Fire Emblem Awakening, quite popular, and the most recent FE lord (which seems to be what Sakurai is going to in deciding an FE rep)
Want: 50%, My satisfaction on him, when(if) Chrom gets confirmed, solely hinges on his playstyle and uniqueness. If he brings something new to the table, I'll be fine with his addition and I'll rate him higher in satisfaction. If he is a semi-clone of Marth or Ike? Meh.

Chorus Men:
Chance: 84% - I agree with a few others that Chorus Men's chances hinge on the Gematsu leak being true or not. However, he is from a game that is quite popular, especially in Japan. Further, the fact that a RH enemy appears in Smash Run boosts his chances by a lot. I really want to know what Chorus Men looks like though. Are they the Chorus Kids, Marshal or are they a collection of other Rhythm Heaven characters?
Want: 65%, They're okay I guess. I'm fine with their inclusion. I can't help but feel, though, that Golden Sun greatly deserves a rep before Rhythm Heaven. But whatever.

Predictions:
King K. Rool - 60%
Dixie Kong - 25%

 

[Deleted member]

Shulk:
Chance: 80%- With Mechon trophies in smash run, it is very likely his series will have full reference in the game
Want: 100% -Best JRPG of last gen

Hold the phone, there are Mechon trophies in Smash Run? May I see a pic of this? If there are indeed Mechon trophies, I would consider Shulk all-but-confirmed at that point.

 

[SmasherMaster]

or Micaiah right? Right?

I abstained earlier for Gematsu, but I'll put my stuff up here instead.

Gematsu
Chance: 65% - No leak is real until the game is out, but this score is much higher than before.
Want: 0% - The only good thing about the leak (Palutena) is confirmed, so I could care less.

Predictions
King K Rool: 55%
Dixie Kong: 12%

I forgot her.

 

[Kalimdori]

Chrom:
Chance: 95%
-Chrom is the newest poster boy in town, and with Awakening referenced already, he has a huge chance.
Want: 90%

Shulk:
Chance: 80%- With Mechon trophies in smash run, it is very likely his series will have full reference in the game
Want: 100% -Best JRPG of last gen

Chorus Men:
Chance: 95%: Sneaky Spirit all but confirms them
Want: 100%


Overall Gematsu:

Chance: 95%
Want 100%

With Mechon trophies in smash run

Say what?! Proof, please!

 

[Burigu]

Gematsu leak:
Chance:90% doubting the evident? not me
Want: 100% I already got what I want the rest is a bonus

Shulk
Chance 90%
Want 70%

Chrom
Chance 90%
Want 88%

RH rep
Chance 90% dat enemy
Want 50% not familiar with the franchise might love or hate it but until reveal I am neutral

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 90%
Want: 75% I don't really want Chrom all that much.

Chrom:
Chance: 50% This could either way. Chrom has the benefit of being in the Gematsu leak, but Lucina was in the Amiibo trailer. Also, three blue haired swordsmen would be somewhat redundant.
Want: 1% GIVE MEH LUCINA OR ROBIN PLEASE!!!
Shulk:
Chance: 75% Protagonist of a recent, popular, Nintendo game, cool moveset potential
Want: 100% I love Xenoblade, and would love to see what they do with Shulk for Smash.
Chorus Men:
Abstain.

Only going to say the Amiibo trailer, don't increase chances for Smash because it wasn't a Smash trailer per se, so the characters showed have little to do with posible hinds and most of them where for Smash because those Amiibos will be the first to appear, Amiibo isn't exclusive to Smash so at least in my perspective these hold little to no evidence.
Tom Nook appears there, Tom Nook hinded for Smash? he is already deconfirmed.
I like Lucina too but I hope this is not your biggest hope for a playable hind

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Leak-
Chance: 90%. At this point, I'm sold on it.

Want: 75%. It still leaves us with an entertaining roster, possible DLC, and the possibility of newcomers that aren't in the leak, just like Rosalina. And after seeing the Miis, how disappointing could the Chorus Kids actually be? They'd probably actually be pretty fun.

 

[Groose]

@ Erimir It's a bit too late for me to clarify now, but I was intending it to be the entire leak is true (bar stuff listed only as possibilities).

@ Pacack I'll remove him. Sorry that it came to that.

You guys suck at not arguing. Remember what Groose asked for?

He's not really arguing about the leak itself, so I guess it's okay. As a whole, I'm proud of all of you for avoiding most arguments today. Great work, guys!


Gematsu Leak: 90% chance and 40% wantI'm pretty sure that it's real. Calling Wii Fit Trainer, Mii Fighter, and a bunch of newcomers without getting a single strike against you? Those odds are statistically very slim. Additionally, evidence like "a slot for X and Y" and the enemy from Rhythm Heaven point towards the leak being true as well. Still, their information is outdated at best and not everything they say is quite guaranteed to be true.

As for want, I think it's definitely possible to have a better trio of realistic characters than what the leak describes. Therefore, I don't particularly want the leak to be true, but it certainly isn't the worst possibility out there.

Shulk: 90% chance and 100% wantSince the leak has a 90% chance, Shulk also has at least that. He's my third most wanted newcomer, so he's really the thing saving my want score for the leak as a whole.

Chrom: 90% chance and 25% want
Since the leak has a 90% chance, Chrom also has at leas that. I always bashed on him for being boring, but now I strongly sympathize with his supporters, so I'd like him in for their sakes. They're pretty darn deserving in my eyes.

Chorus Men: 75% chance and 50% wantI'm saying they're less likely than the leak itself because I could see the leaker getting them confused with Marshal; I'd still count the leak as real if we got him, but Chorus Men wouldn't technically be in. I'm really not sure if I want them; they could be cool, and I'm more attached to them than most Rhythm Heaven characters, but I'm afraid of how gimmicky they could be.

DAY OVER

GROOSE? GROOSE! GROOOOOOOOOOOOOSE!​

 

[Groose]

Gematsu Leak
90.35% chance
59.47% want
Before E3, we decided that the Gematsu Leak could really go either way. In the wake of E3's reveals, however, the leak seems to be a lot more real and many accept it as fact. As a whole, people want it to be true, but this is quite the area of debate.

Shulk
91.70% chance
74.55% want
Shulk has been deemed more likely than the Gematsu Leak; even if the leak proves to be a fake, people still think he has a great shot. He's also one of the board's most popular characters now, and he is the prime reason many people like or tolerate the leak.

Chrom
88.82% chance
50.83% want
Poor Chrom. Somehow he managed to not only be the least-liked aspect of the leak, but also placed less likely than the leak itself. How is that even possible? Isn't the leak a fake if he isn't playable? Ah, well, Chrom. You're still highly likely, anyway.

Chorus Men
81.25% chance
56.08% want
Although they've been deemed highly likely, they're still perceived as the least likely aspect of the leak. They're more highly wanted here than Chrom, however.


Cranky Kong is finished. The old veteran was confirmed to have a non-playable appearance in the new games. Additionally, a Chunky Kong AT has been reported by numerous people, but only one picture has surfaced. In other words, we have no proof that he's actually an assist, other than the words of our fellow Smashers. What does all of this mean for Dixie Kong and King K. Rool, the two main options left from the DK franchise? Please rate Dixie and K. Rool in chance and want.

Although nominations aren't currently being accepted, you can still predict! Tomorrow we're talking Mewtwo and Jiggs; predict away!

EDIT: I almost forgot! Major kudos to @Brawler610 , @ Toxicroaker , and @colder_than_ice for helping tally the scores today! You guys rock!

DOUBLE EDIT: Be sure to check out the OP, where instead of a picture introduction for K. Rool, I have a video created by @BKupa666 !​

 

[andimidna]

I think our chance scores got a bit messed up by people who would just rate the leak and not the characters.
It seems harmless, but it did result in Chrom getting an inaccurate score compared to the leak.

Oh well, the leak doesn't go on the same list as the characters so they won't be compared on the official rankings.
I think the numbers all look fine alone, it's just that when compared it looks odd.
Well, I think that was a good day. Time to rate some Kongs.
Edit: apparently when I'm tired I consider K Rool a Kong... wow. King K Kong...

 

[BluePikmin11]

King K. Rool Chance: 45% Dixie is pretty much his only competition, but with the Tropical Freeze, Sakurai may lean more towards Dixie over K. Rool.
King K. Rool Want: 55% I'm more interested in Dixie getting in than K. Rool.
Dixie Chance: 55%
Dixie Want: 80% Don't really want her as much as other of my top wanted newcomers, but her hair is certainly interesting and could have a moveset based on Tails in SSF2 (Who I main by the way).

 

[Louie G.]

I'm happy to see Chorus Kids break 50% want!
Once their revealed I'm sure everyone will warm up to my favorite little chorus.

I'll rate the DK Crew tomorrow.

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

K. Rool-
Chance: 25%. With neither him or Ridley being revealed at E3, I have to assume one of the 2 major villains i probably not happening...
Want: 100% I grew up on those DKC games, man! DK 64 was the bees knees! Give me one of my favorite video game villains!!!

Dixie-
Chance: 50%. She could easily be secret because she wouldn't cause a hype fest like many other characters, such as K. Rool.

Want: 50%. She'd be visually boring, especially since we already have Diddy, who she would look very similar to. On top of that, I feel like she could easily have a bland moveset. Perhaps she'll be a roster-stuffer clone that is made late into development. Dixie is one of my favorite Kongs though. I just don't see her having too much unique stuff to bring to the table.

 

[mini paincakes]

K Rool
Chance: 70%- DK getting a third newcomer is long overdue and the kremlings being back in Smash run points toK Rool being playbale. The only DKC character that has a chance of getting in over him is Dixie, who seems less likely and less wanted overall. The only thing that's working against K Rool is that he's not part of the gematsu leak, but even that leak doesn't have every newcomer.

Overall he seems more likely than not, but Sakurai might be crazy enough to not put him in the game(or maybe save him for DLC )

Want: 100%- My most wanted newcomer tied with ridley, takamaru and a mewtwo return.

Dixie
Chance: 30%- I only expect one DKC newcomer and I expect it to be K Rool. Sakurai may choose her over K Rool since she was planned in brawl and could be easily implemented to Smash 4 if she's a Diddy semi-clone. Overall, I think K Rool is more likely than Dixie since he seems more unique and there's more clues pointing towards K Rool (kremlings/kritters).

Want: 60%- I'd be fine with her if we got K Rool too. I'm not too fond of Dixie, but I've got nothing against her inclusion in particular.

 

[Deleted member]

I predicted that Shulk would be the most likely, Chorus Men would be the least likely, and Chrom would be the least wanted. Heh. Glad to see that I got that right.
King K. Rool and Dixie Kong have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these characters, check to see what you've said on their days!

I'll rate tomorrow. I'm very tired.

 

[andimidna]

I think they are pretty much even at this point. I think a DK newcomer is almost definite still, I'm just not sure why they didn't reveal K Rool at E3. It would have been a perfect time... ugh.
I think Chunky is an assist. And I somewhat think that helps both of them.
They pulled an old character for an assist-- K Rool advantage
K Rool isn't the type of character you'd expect as an assist if not playable, whereas Dixie fits the assist role perfectly, and with Chunky as one, yes, there can be be one more, but the chance of her as an assist has lowered slightly-- Dixie advantage
I think the chance of both is still there, but is very small now. I'll give the chance of both... 17%
Which means that these 2 share 117% I think.

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 62% (pre E3- 65%)
Want: 100%

King K Rool:
Chance: 55% (pre E3- 80%)
Want: 80%

My thoughts on Dixie pretty much haven't changed. Before E3 I thought K Rool was very, very likely... but I'm beginning to doubt him. But hey, a lot of characters recently have been confirmed right as I start to doubt them, so there's that.
If one is confirmed, the other will be reduced to a 17% chance.

Pre:
Jiggs- 85% If she's DLC, she's technically deconfirmed as far as we're rating for this game, but I bet most won't consider that.
Mewtwo- 83% Same as Jiggs, even though the character is pretty much her complete opposite.
(these might change once I go look at their previous scores)

 

[Kalimdori]

I think I'm just going to copy and paste this every time I rate something, but:

I do not believe that the gematsu leak hurts the chances of any other newcomers getting into Smash Bros.

Now then:

King K. Rool Chances: 56%

I definitely think he's possible, and more likely to be in then not. But I really hesitate giving him a score any higher then this. K. Rool's chances seemed to soar in everybodys mind when we saw the Smash Run Kremlings. Could somebody enlighten me as to how this highly boosts his chances? These are the most iconic enemies of the DK franchise, regardless of K. Rool's role, they would probably be in Smash Run.

I think the reason everyone jumped on this was the misconception that the majority of people had that Nintendo didn't own the rights to K. Rool and the Kremlings. Which would definitely be points in his favor... if it wasn't one of the most idiotic, unfounded misconceptions ever. All the Kremlings really do is prove those idiots wrong.

As of right now, we really don't have much hinting at K. Rool's appearance. He's still an extremely good contender, with a good shot of being playable, but he's in no way as likely as some write him out to be, and I will not be terribly surprised if he's left out this installment.

Want: 70%

Never played any games with him in it, no personal attachment, but I want his fans to be happy.

Dixie Kong's Chances: 85%

Why do people rate her under K. Rool? I don't understand this! She was planned to be in Brawl, she is a female, which Sakurai has made a point in saying there are so many more on the roster, she is much more relevant then K. Rool, has had her own games, she's one of the most important and popular characters of the DK franchise. Where and how exactly are her chances lowered? Moveset potential? All that means is that you lack creativity to come up with one.

Want: 30%

I'd rather have Rool, Dixie doesn't do much for me. Was useful in Tropical Freeze though, I'll give her that.

Predictions: Jiggs: 90%
Because it's Jiggs.

Mewtwo: 70%
Because people are stupid illogical.

 

[Ryan.]

Honestly I think King K. Rool and Dixie Kong have both the same chance, going with 50%, could be either or I think. I would prefer Dixie (as long as she wasn't a clone to Diddy) so my want for her is 60%, want for King K. Rool 40%. I think only one will have a chance of making it in but it'd be cool if I was wrong. :D

 

[Rockaphin]

King K. Rool:
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%
DK seriously needs a villain now. It's not like K. Rool is one of the most requested characters or anything. . .


Dixie Kong:
Chance: 70%
Want: 80%
My next choice after K. Rool, but I think he should appear before her. I think it's the villain's turn.

 

[NickerBocker]

K Rool
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Not much different from last time, only that the roster is being squeezed out slowly. With the confirmation of 3 new characters, which also helps solidify the Gematsu leak, there is less open space. I would like to bring up that if the rhythm heaven character appearance helps out Chorus kids chance, then the kremlings help K Rool as well...

Needless to say, he is no guarantee, but I believe he is one of the few characters omitted from the leak, similar to Rosalina. Its a crime that DK has only 2 characters, and would be absurd to miss out on a 3rd character.

Dixie
Chance: 35%
Want: 75%

Direct competition from K Rool, but still a strong chance, she could be interesting, but I would rather have K Rool.

If one of these characters makes it in, the other drops to a cool 10%

Jiggs: 93.4%
Mewtwo: 73.2%

 

[Xenigma]

Time for the interesting part: rating top newcomer picks not in the Gematsu leaks. Before I start, I'd like to explain my general philosophy on characters moving forward. With the leaks bringing us to a presumptive 12 newcomers and roughly 47 character slots occupied (assuming minimal cuts/possible Mewtwo return), chances are there are few, if any, newcomer slots left. That means my ratings will, with the odd exception like Ridley, be quite a bit lower than before. Further, for a character to receive a decent rating at this point, they need both good reason to make the disc instead of DLC and to have been excluded from the leaks. That would generally mean they were secret characters never considered for reveal before the game's launch, which could help explain why the leaker didn't know of them. Maybe this proves to be an overly pessimistic view of overall chances from here on out, but I'd rather underrate and be surprised with a larger than expected roster than overrate and end up even more disappointed when we don't get anyone else. On to rating!

King K. Rool - 25%
I don't remember who pointed it out recently on this thread, but it is interesting that up until this point we've remained rather devoid of villains in SSB4. All we've got is Bowser and Dedede for now, despite popular veteran baddies like Ganondorf, Wario, and Meta Knight presumably waiting in the wings, and we don't have a single newcomer that fits the category even including the Gematsu leaks. What gives? Maybe it's just a coincidence in the reveal schedule that our nefarious veterans remain unconfirmed, or maybe, just maybe, they're all waiting on a newcomer villain to be revealed alongside to really bring the hype. Ridley could certainly fit the bill, but really, no popular candidate fits the bill better than K. Rool. He's highly requested, he's from a series primed for a newcomer, he'd be exceedingly unique, and he could single-handedly fill the villain niche among newcomers, with or without everyone's favorite purple space dragon. The biggest remaining source of my doubt is that I'm not sure why he would be left out of the leak if he's in. Maybe he would have been meant to be a secret character at first, or maybe he would have been added later on in development in response to fan demand. The point is that he's a strong candidate regardless of the leaks, and with his Kremlings running around in Smash Run, it would certainly make sense that their master would also be joining the fight, and should he not be in the base game, he automatically becomes a top pick for potential DLC.
Want - 75% - I'm not really a big fan of his, but I do have plenty of nostalgia regardless as a DK64 fan and I know he'd make for a crazy unique character.

Dixie Kong - 10%
On one hand, it's easy to see how Dixie could end up as a secret Diddy clone, considering her popularity and ease of implementation. On the other hand, she would be unusual as quite possibly the only clone newcomer on the cast, which doesn't seem to fit with Sakurai's newcomer philosophy for SSB4. Further, if she was in the game, I'm not sure why they would bother keeping her a secret instead of, say, having revealed her back when Tropical Freeze came out. I think she at least used to have a great chance at making it into SSB4, and her hopes aren't entirely dashed yet, but I don't think she really fits into the picture anymore.
Want - 75% - My opinion on Dixie for Smash has cooled a bit over time. I really do like her as a character, but I'm not so sure she makes for a truly interesting Smash character. I'd be happy for her inclusion, but I'm no longer sure I'd prefer her to K. Rool.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

King K Rool:
Chance - 80%
I'm hopeful. Very hopeful. Being one of the most requested characters in both the west and Japan certainly helps his case, so I'm sure that Sakurai will have noticed this. He loses some points for relevancy, but that is diminished by these guys:

Yeah. Also, him not being at E3 doesn't really change his chances: He still is very likely to be a secret character. Gematsu leak is true, with minimum possible cuts from Brawl? There's still room for him. He's generally one of
Want - 110%
One of my favorite villains - no, one of my favorite characters EVER. He certainly deserves a spot. He not only increases villain representation, but also giant reptile representation in case Ridley doesn't get in. Costume potential is gigantic, as he may even have as many skins as the Villager, consisting of King, Kaptain, Baron and Boxing (or Pharoah, but the boxing version I like more.) He has fantastic moveset potential, even with room for all 12 customization options still being from his series! The possibilities are awesome. If this guy doesn't get in...
Eh, I'll be ok, as long as Ridley or Mewtwo get in instead, and Dixie doesn't cause that would imply that she was chosen as a higher priority than him.

Dixie Kong:
Chance - 70%
Unfortunately for me, Dixie is still somewhat likely... She is more relevant than K. Rool, having been in Tropical Freeze. She was also planned to be in Brawl, but was scrapped because of mechanics with Diddy not working right and time constraints. Except her being scrapped and not being a thing with Diddy so that makes me doubt her somewhat. But who knows: She's still a popular character. Except...
Want: 10%
If she replaces K. Rool I'm gonna be mad. If she doesn't, I still don't care. At all. I'm only giving 10% instead of 1% because I'm sure that if she's in, I can trust Sakurai to give her a good moveset. But that won't quench my hatred for her if she happens to replace K. Rool. Besides, I don't see much potential in her moveset myself. Again, I trust Sakurai to be able to give her one if she's in but... Diddy at least has the jetpack and peanut popgun to go off, Dixie has... Hovering? Jumping on things? Throwing barrels, like all the other Kongs? I don't even. Maybe somebody could correct me on this, but the only potential I saw was when she was teamed up with Diddy. That's evidently not a thing in Smash 4. Sakurai will need to jump through some fiery rainbow-road style hoops in order to give her a decent moveset. In any case, the fact that she was scrapped from Brawl and K Rool didn't even have more than a trophy implies she is considered more than him and that alone makes me mad.

Predictions:
Jigglypuff - 80% because people are dumb and think she'll be cut. (Not including me)
Mewtwo - 80% because people are dumb and think he'll be un-cut. (Including me)

 

[andimidna]

After yesterday, a lot changed in the charts and I was curious what they looked like atm
Not including confirmed and deconfirmed characters, this is it:

Spoiler

1. Shulk - 91.70% chance
2. Chrom - 88.82% chance
3. Chorus Men - 81.25% chance
4. King K. Rool - 68.75% chance
5. Dixie Kong - 49.04% chance
6. Ridley - 48.41% chance
7.Takamaru - DAY 203: 46.06% chance
8. Isaac - 38.22% chance
9. Bowser Jr. - 26.63% chance
10. Robin - 25.83% chance

Larger range of percents than ever before.

1. King K. Rool - 78.88% want
2. Ridley - 77.02% want
3. Shulk - 74.55% want
4. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57% want
5. Isaac - 68.42% want
6. Professor Layton - 60.93% want
7. Bomberman - 59.83% want
8. Anna - 59.76% want
9. Robin - 59.64% want
10. Vaati 57.48% want

Shulk passed Banjo-Kazooie! Wow, that's a shock!
Sceptile's decrease= Vaati joins the top 10!

Honorable Mention: Chibi Robo- he's #11 on both charts.

Things will most likely change after today. I just really wanted to know

 

[Toxicroaker]

King K. Rool: 55% I think things could go ether way. The roster looks like it's almost full if the gematsu leak is real, and that severely hinders the chances of everyone else. However, I think he is more likely than not because of his extreme popularity and his moveset possibilities.
Want: 100%

Dixie Kong: 30% If she gets in, she will most likely be a last minute clone.
Want: 10% I only give her that much because I love clones... a lot... I guess I'm just weird like that.

Jigglypuff: 91.8%
Mewtwo: 79.99%