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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

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Autumn ♫

I'm terrible with these Custom Titles.
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I don't know why people say you can't just guess Wii Fit Trainer, me, and some other people I know, have guessed her before. In a joking manner, yes, but we still thought of her as a playable character.
 

Spinosaurus

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I don't know why people say you can't just guess Wii Fit Trainer, me, and some other people I know, have guessed her before. In a joking manner, yes, but we still thought of her as a playable character.
There's your problem.
 

False Sense

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I don't know why people say you can't just guess Wii Fit Trainer, me, and some other people I know, have guessed her before. In a joking manner, yes, but we still thought of her as a playable character.
This is exactly my manner of thinking. People didn't need to actually predict Wii Fit Trainer, they only needed to think of the possibility, which simply cannot be claimed to be impossible.
 

Xenigma

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Xenigma asked for my explanations and I gave it to him. If he wants to discuss this, I will glady take it to the Sal Romano/Gematsu leak thread.
Agreed, I wanted to see at least some sort of argument as to why the leaks are worthy of a 100% and that post delivered. Not to say I agree with it (for example, the idea that they didn't know which X/Y Pokemon it was the day it was being revealed is extremely sketchy), but at least the position is clear and it need not go into further debate within this thread.
 

Spinosaurus

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I don't see how it's a problem...
All it takes is for someone to joke about it and then post it as an "unlikely prediction."
Sure, if someone predicted WFT jokingly and she got it in, then it's a coincidence. Because they didn't expect her to be in.

But predicting (read: leaking) her confidently? With Mega Man and Villager to boot? That's a whole different ballgame.
 
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False Sense

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Sure, if someone predicted WFT jokingly and she got it in, then it's a coincidence.

But predicting (see: leaking) her confidently? With Mega Man and Villager to boot? That's a whole different ballgame.
Who said it was confidently? The original post stated they were "unlikely predictions." I would interpret that as the person saying "Well, here are some characters I don't find likely, but here they are."
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Guys, don't debate about the Gematsu leak here. I know that this is what we are rating, but take this to the PMs and not here. It might discourage people from rating.
 

Spinosaurus

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EDIT: Mini modding gets you no where. The discussion is within the topic, what is the problem?

I'm seriously annoyed by you telling us not to discuss the topic of the day.
But even then, it was most likely not a serious prediction at all.
If it was just her then you'd have a point, but Mega Man and Villager were there as well, and all three got in. The possibilities of leaking Mega Man and Villager, and then joking about Wii Fit Trainer getting in when she DID, is very slim, if not impossible.
Who said it was confidently? The original post stated they were "unlikely predictions." I would interpret that as the person saying "Well, here are some characters I don't find likely, but here they are."
I think you're mistaking Sal for the leaker. He is not, he said it himself. He has a source though, the actual leaker who tells him all this. When he posted that, he didn't know the credibility of the leaks, and in fact he probably posted it because he thought it was a funny "leak". It probably took him by surprise when it turned out to be true.

Leakers never show themselves publicly. It's a very dangerous thing. Think of Sal as the prophet, not the actual leaker.
 
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Autumn ♫

I'm terrible with these Custom Titles.
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False Sense

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I think you're mistaking Sal for the leaker. He is not, he said it himself. He has a source though, the actual leaker who tells him all this. When he posted that, he didn't know the credibility of the leaks, and in fact he probably posted it because he thought it was a funny "leak". It probably took him by surprise when it turned out to be true.

Leakers never show themselves publicly. It's a very dangerous thing. Think of Sal as the prophet, not the actual leaker.
Or, on the other hand, when a lucky guess ended up being true and people started believing Sal had information, he made up the idea that he had a source that only gave him limited information.

I think you're assuming that Sal is being honest here. It is possible he is not.

Admittedly though, this isn't the best place for such a debate.
 
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Spinosaurus

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Or, on the other hand, when a lucky guess ended up being true and people started believing Sal had information, he made up the idea that he had a source that only gave him limited information.

I think you're assuming that Sal is being honest here. It is possible he is not.
His site is credible and trustworthy. I trust him.

Also leakers who outright leak things never show themselves. They let someone else do their work. If Sal was the actual leaker he'd be in trouble, but he obviously isn't.
 
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Pacack

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EDIT: Mini modding gets you no where. The discussion is within the topic, what is the problem?

I'm seriously annoyed by you telling us not to discuss the topic of the day.
He is helping Groose run this day. He is managing RTC in Groose's absence. When he tell you to stop, he has every right and you should stop.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
EDIT: Mini modding gets you no where. The discussion is within the topic, what is the problem?

I'm seriously annoyed by you telling us not to discuss the topic of the day.
Apologies then. I wasn't aware.
As Pacack mentioned, I am looking over this day for Groose when he isn't able to. Groose will eventually come in and end the day, but I don't want things to get too chaotic. If you looked at Mewtwo's day yesterday, things got pretty bad. So, I am looking over for Groose and I am making sure that everything is going as planned as smoothly with as little debates as possible.

Admittedly, I am the one to blame for nominating a controversial topic...
Speaking of which, I am going to change my nominations.
 

Capybara Gaming

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Gematsu Leak is real:
Chance: 50% - Chorus Men will make or break it.
Want: 100% - Just keep Ike and give me Takamaru as well.

Style Savvy:
Chance: 0% - Lolnope
Want: 0% - No thanks

Veteran Downgraded: 82% even.
Micaiah: 4.56%

Noms: Tails x5
 
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mini paincakes

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Leak

Chance:50%

Most of the characters that were leaked seem pretty likely to me. The only ones that I ever had doubts about are wii fit trainer, mii and chorus men. WFT gives this leak some credibility, and mii, despite how many people are against them, do have a decent shot of making it. The only character that seems kind of unlikely to me is chorus men.

It seems likely that the leaker had some sort of insider info for last years e3 and then made another leak that was false, but had a lot of "safe" bets plus one "wtf' character. At this point the only thing that can get me to believe the leak is chorus men being announced. I doubt the leak itself is real, but I would not be surprised if we got all of these newcomers in the game, apart from chorus men.

We already know that this leak won't have all characters. The leaker never predicted rosalina and it seems odd that sakurai would ignore requested newcomers like K. Rool and Ridley in favor of wii fit trainer and chorus men. I'll give the leak a 50% since I don't believe the leak, but I can easily all of its characters joining the roster. (except for chorus men lol)

Want: 100%

I like most of the leaked characters, but I'm neutral to mii and chorus men. I just want a few more newcomers in addition.

Savvy Stylist

Chance: 0%

Wont happen. Maybe in smash 5 or 6.

Want: 70%

I like the idea of this character, but there are so many newcomers that need to come first. K. Rool, Isaac, Ridley, Paper Mario, Bowser jr., Takamaru, Dillon, Chibi robo and Ashley are just few that I can think of off the top of my head. She's still a good option, but I doubt she will make it in until after some characters that were made assist trophies become playable first.
 
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PK_Wonder

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The Leak - 46%
I am not particularly convinced due to very early reveal of the "unleaked" Rosalina & Luma, the absurdity that Chorus Men would be the Rhythm Heaven rep - (this could also be a mistranslation), and the possibility that, even if Sal does have a legit inside source (I am inclined to believe this), the leak itself could have made some mistakes.

I myself would predict that Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, and Pac-Man will ALL get in, with or without the leak (same with Mega Man and Little Mac, and I was in the believer/predictor camp for Villager). I would not have guessed Wii Fit Trainer or Greninja, but those aren't absurd thoughts. Chorus Men (or a misinterpreted Marshal) is absurd and would prove the leak beyond any doubt.

Want - 100% IF King K. Rool and/or Ridley make it as well, although I wouldn't be satisfied without one or two extras.


Savvy Stylist - 0.25%
Not playable. Assist Trophy, perhaps.
Want - 0%

predict Vet Downgrade - 85%
Micaiah - 3.5%

nom Flynn x5
 

Camc10

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Does the Veteran Downgrade mean a chance of a nerfed Veteran or the chance a Veteran will be demoted from playable to something else.
 

SmasherMaster

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I'll say

The Leak

Chance- 90%
Unfortunately, unless WFT trainer was a lucky guess, this guy myst have some idea.

Want- 50%
Three words: PACMAN and MII! I do not want either of them. I am not so fond of Chrom, mostly because I would prefer Robin, but still. Also, none of the following appear: Ridely, K Rool, Dixie, Waddle Dee and Isaac.

Style Savvy

Chance: 0.000000000001%
Not impossible, but I wouldn't put her even in my 100 character roster.

Want: 0%
No, I do not want another female character that nobody wanted or predicted.

Veteran Downgrade: 50%
Miaciah: 5%

Nominations:
Doc Louis x5

Also, hasn't Brawl + Mewtwo been deconfirmed with Greninja and no transformation characters?
 
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Overtaken

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I'd have to give the leak two ratings, one for the chances of all of its remaining predictions to be true (coincidentally or not), and one for the chances it's valid.

Validity - 25%
Huge damage done with the incorrect e3 '6 newcommers' prediction. In principal this should warrant a zero, as it incontrovertibly got something wrong, but I'll give it some leeway over the possibility of a last minute change of plans by the presenters. At least for roster predictions there is no way any modifications will be made to it at this point.

Sum content chances - 40%

Only issue here is the choir boys. I'd have rated higher if it even said 'rhythm heaven character' or specifically mentioned almost any other rhythm heaven character besides the choir boys.

Want - 85%

All of the characters mentioned I'd love to see, though choir boys are a poor choice for representing RH. I suppose if Sakurai got really creative he could pull it off, and I would take them over nothing as I do really want a RH character involved.
 
D

Deleted member

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Does the Veteran Downgrade mean a chance of a nerfed Veteran or the chance a Veteran will be demoted from playable to something else.
A veteran being demoted from a playable character to something else (Assist Trophy, Poke Ball Pokemon, Trophy, Sticker). That is what the Veteran Downgrade concept is.
 
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a smart guy

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There's a Gematsu Leak in the boat:
Chance: 48% Rosalina casts serious doubt on this
Want: 50% It has interesting characters, but I wouldn't like it if those were the only new characters.

Savvy Stylist:
Chance: 3% She is the biggest oddball choice in a while, but Wii Fit Trainer fills that void.
Want: 65% She looks hilarious, and those claiming she's too feminine, look at Peach.

Predictions:
Miaciah: 6.4% Fire Emblem has so many characters.
Downgraded veteran: 15% I predict confusion about what this actually means.

Nominations: Dr. Lobe x5
 
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a smart guy

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A veteran being demoted from a playable character to something else (Assist Trophy, Poke Ball Pokemon, Trophy, Sticker). That is what the Veteran Downgrade concept is.
That's a bit too likely in my opinion. I know that Brawl had Mewtwo return as a trophy, so this concept wouldn't be surprising. I'm more interested in a veteran returning on a stage, either as an AT, a Pokeball Pokemon, or a stage hazard.
 

Kenith

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Finally.

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 15%. There's a lot going for this leak, I will admit; the guessing of Wii Fit Trainer and Villager at E3, the guessing of Greninja. However, it's also incredibly mysterious, and has a lot going against it.

Firstly, the E3 leak, by definition, is overall incorrect, as three of the characters proposed to be revealed there, however likely they are were, were not revealed there. And another thing; why is this leak so ambiguous in some places and spot on in others? "Animal Crossing Guy", "Pokemon from X & Y"...I highly believe that at least some of the information in this leak is fake.

Want: 0%. Please. This damn leak has been the bane of my existence since I joined Smashboards. I hated it when it was just the E3 leak, but the Gematsu leak afterwards compounded it even worse, and now I can't even calmly discuss.
I have my fingers crossed for something to disconfirm it.

Style Savvy:

Chance: 12%. At first glance this is the absolute worst idea ever. A generic anime chick who's only notable feature is her love for fashion - we don't even know if some of our favorites are in the game, why do we need what is essentially a Japanese Barbie?

But if the roster was larger, say, 55 characters, I would be all for it, as that would ensure we already have most of the most wanted characters. This character would be hilarious and seems like the perfect choice for a WFT character that Sakurai would pull on us.

Want: 100%. Never played this game. But then again, never played Wii Fit either, and I think I will main wFT when this game comes out. As long as she doesn't get in the way of fan favorites, this would something I'd love to see the internet tear apart on the message boards.

--------------------------------- Predictions:

Veteran Downgrade - 10%.
Micaiah - 3%.


--------------------------------- Nominations:

Anna x5
 

Cheezey Bites

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Gematsu: 3%
He got it wrong. If he's any inside information it's inpcomplete, and therfore flawed. He may have guessed so far and been right, and may continue to be so, but the concept of the leak being real is not the same as it turning out factual, as that has already been disproven. As for Wii Fit Trainer, yes it wan't a particularly high chance, maybe 25%, but given the literally thousands of fake leaks the chance of one of them is extremely high.... If I made a fake leak it would include Sime despite him having 3% currently in RtC... if he gets in am I some prophet? No, I'm just a perfect mixture smart and lucky.

Want: 0%
Nope, I don't want there to be a line were someone can get information, even if wrong, out of the team. It shows a lack of professionalism.



Girl's Mode: 0.1%
Technically possible, but let's be honest it doesn't really make for a good playable.

Want: 1%
I like Girl's Mode, they're the best fashion games on the market... my Girlfriend and her Sister (they're both Japanese if you're wondering my use of the Japanese name for the franchise) like them even more than me... so representation would be amazing! But I thinka Stage would be pushing it, do-able, bt a touch much, ATs nye impossible.... Trophies or Music really are what it would do best and what it honestly deserves.



Miciah: 6.66%
Ike.

Downgraded Veteran: 66.6%
Ivysaur and Squirtle.


Slime's locked for tomorrow... so, I hear Smashboards likes Purple Dragons? :troll:

Spyro*5
 

Arcanir

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Well, lets get it over with.

Chances: 70%
The first part I honestly believe is very likely right. WFT was highly unlikely to guess, and having her flanked by both Villager and Mega Man solidified it. The only point of contention is that the other three weren't shown, and even then it could've been a change (and Little Mac was shown anyway). It is a minor flaw, but not one I think that completely neuters its likelihood. The second part I'm a bit more skeptical about, but I still feel it's very possible nonetheless.

Want: 30%
Aside from Palutena, I can't say that any of the remaining characters really interest me, so if this is the full newcomer list I'm not really that fond of it.
 

KingofPhantoms

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Gematsu leak - 65%

Will it be fully true in the end? Possibly, but I have no doubt that this guy is at least partially credible. Wii Fit Trainer is an extremely difficult character to guess or predict, and for the small amount of people who did, it's still not nearly enough to discredit the leak or suddenly make it more likely fake than not. Not to mention he said she would be revealed along with Mega Man and "Animal Crossing guy" on E3, among a few other characters that were not. If anything, I'm certain that the source is credible, but it may not be fully true in the end.

Want - 0%
I don't want Miis or Chorus Men/Boys/Kids/Whatever. No thanks.

Savvy Stylist - 2%

Doesn't seem like a character that would catch Sakurai's eye IMO, not at this point at the very least. She's pretty obscure too as far as I know.

Want - 50%

Would honestly be fine if she got in as long as other characters I want get in first, but I wouldn't be super happy about her inclusion either. Indifferent.

Veteran Downgrade Prediction - 4.33%
Miciah Prediction - 5.16%


Spyro x5
 
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OctiVick

Smash Journeyman
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393
I haven't participated in the RTC for awhile but this seems like a big one so I'll throw my metaphorical hat into the metaphorical ring

Gematsu leak Chance - 55%
Given What we've seen so far it wouldn't be too shocking to see if this was true, although there is still doubt. I guess what gives this leak credibility is that newcomers on that list appeared already even if some are vague. The rest are the characters on the list are not completely out of the realm of possibility with some even being possible shoo-ins like Palutena and the Pacster. The only thing that would hurt it is the Rosa-luma reveal, but it could just mean there are other characters outside the leak.

Gematsu leak Want - 45%
I do like characters on the list like Palutena and Mii but I'm mostly neutral about the rest. I've never played Xenoblade or the new FE and I don't have connections with those character's so there isn't any real reason to be exited. As for the Chorus Men, I would be glad RH is getting represented, but I would rather have a character like Marshal who appeared in more than just one of the mini games. I do like Pac-Man but I'm still hoping for Slime from DQ. I guess the biggest reason for disappointment would be if that's just it; if they were the last of the newcomers it would just feel sort of empty, well at least to me. I guess with charterers like Rosalina it shows that there are characters that could appear outside the leak so I'm not fully sure.

Savvy Stylist Chance - 15%
Not out of the realm of possibility, especially when we have out of the box characters like Miss Fit.

Savvy Stylist Want - 75%
I would want see how she could battle and she could possibly be another fun character completely out of the blue ^^
 
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Mega Bidoof

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Gaymatsu Leak Chance: 60%
He got Wii Fit Trainer, he seems decently legit, and I'm too tired to type.

Gaymatsu Leak Want: 80%
I like Chorus Men.
I like Chrom
I like Pac-Man
But I don't like no Ridley
And I don't like no K. Rool


Savvy Stylist Chance: 2%
As a typical "style savvy" teen girl would say, "Ha! As if!"

Savvy Stylist Want: 1%
As that girl would also say, "Mmmm, how bout' no."


Vet Downgrade Prediction: 3%
Sakurai is smart enough to know that if he cuts a veteran, he should rub it in our faces by making it an assist, Pokéball, hazard, etc.

Michiah Prediction: 5%
She has Chrom, Robin, and Lucina as competition.


Omnomnomination: x5 Fawful
 

Pazzo.

「Livin' On A Prayer」
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Gematsu/Sal Leak

Chance: 35%

While there are a lot of things going for this leak, there are some drawbacks. I won't go into detail for the sake of this thread.

Want: 15%

While I'd like a Rhythm Heaven character.... I just don't really like the lineup, especially if it's the final newcomer list.

Style Savvy

"'Laughs'"

Smash Bros. NFC-DLC 5X
 

Groose

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I've been laughing at this picture for like 10 minutes. :joyful:

There's so much hidden everywhere. And dem Rosalips.
But it would have been better if Little Mac or Wii Fit Trainer were there pointing to themselves.
I always try to find some good pictures for the OP; I've been taking more pride in that recently. Glad you liked my find on this one!

Oh, I see what they mean by vet downgrade.

I'm thinking 45%.

Dr. Mario alt anyone?
Brawl Veterans, I believe.

I made a model that predicts the number of slots a franchise gets based on its lifetime sales (on a logarithmic scale) and the number of slots the franchise had in the previous iteration. The correlation is about 77%.

The amount of variation you see is, however, shows that those aren't the only factors. It also tends to underestimate the larger series... Probably because of that time when Mario dropped from 5 reps to 4 (that's the one at the top where it predicted 6 slots). . It's clear that decisions are not based purely on the characters, but some consideration is given to sales, which implies slots for franchises. So I think it's useful to think in terms of slots... given that you keep in mind that there's quite a bit of wiggle room, especially for the larger series (and the fact that slots tend to increase). So more accurately, it's probably better to think of a range which is determined mostly by series popularity and previous representation. But can be broken for various reasons (Earthbound is an example of a series getting a disproportionate number of reps).

But thinking that Mewtwo has 0% chance because Pokemon's slots are all taken already is silly.

View attachment 14110
Stick this in your post on the first page! It's quite an interesting model, that's for sure.

I'll rate tomorrow. Tired today. If I rate now, I'll forget important stuff...
A wise decision. Be warned, though--I updated on pretty consistent 24-hour frames, so don't wait to long (I see you've made your post, but just for future reference).

NOOO.... I missed yesterday's rate. My perfect attendance is gone. :c
I lost my perfect attendance back on Day 4. Don't feel too bad. :p
Yeah, I guess That was pretty rude of me, sorry.
Thanks for the apology. Sorry for the entire crackdown today; we're not usually so strict, but the leak is a very volatile topic, and we're just trying not to lose control of the thread.
As Pacack mentioned, I am looking over this day for Groose when he isn't able to. Groose will eventually come in and end the day, but I don't want things to get too chaotic. If you looked at Mewtwo's day yesterday, things got pretty bad. So, I am looking over for Groose and I am making sure that everything is going as planned as smoothly with as little debates as possible.

Admittedly, I am the one to blame for nominating a controversial topic...
Speaking of which, I am going to change my nominations.
You're doing an amazing job! I don't really have time other than on evenings (and very briefly when I first wake up) to visit; I'm more or less just here to move the day from one point to another. Brawler610 has my complete trust, as do the others that have posts on the first page of this thread.
Does the Veteran Downgrade mean a chance of a nerfed Veteran or the chancee a Veteran will be demoted from playable to something else.
Demoted. I'll actually be referring to it as "Demoted Veteran" from here on out to avoid the (justifiable) conclusion.

Gematsu Leak: 60%
Note: This does not factor in minor errors. If we get Marshal instead of Chorus Men and all of the other things in the leak turn out to be true, I would consider the leak valid. I do think there is a good chance that if the leak is real, we will get Marshal instead of Chorus Men [or at the very least, they'll be renamed Choir Boys or whatever they are actually called in the English version].

When evaluating the Gematsu Leak, I find it important to not get too concerned with the individual contents and focus more on the circumstances surrounding the leak and the contents of the leak as a whole. For example, the fact that I estimated Marshal at just 5% before the leak incorporated him is pretty irrelevant to whether the leak is real or not. Characters I have viewed as unlikely or haven't even considered have made the cut in the past, and it is entirely possible one or two are still left in the wings.

First, I'd like to discuss the contents of the leak as a whole. It offers up a half-dozen newcomers in addition to the half-dozen we already have; this is definitely plausible. I expect roughly a dozen newcomers (give or take a few) this time based on Sakurai's comments and the way characters have been rolled out thus far; the fact that the leak slots pretty nicely into my expectations definitely doesn't mean it is real, but it does allow it to be in the window of possibility. There was another leak not too long ago that I dismissed as soon as I read it; it announced that there would be nineteen newcomers; I think that amount is ludicrous. The Gematsu leak is plausible from a numerical standpoint.

Additionally, I look at the characters it adds as a whole and it seems plausible. There is one character I didn't really expect, but the majority are characters that I think would have excellent chances. If these six characters were to get in, the roster would look pretty balanced--I'd have given it a pretty solid score on a prediction roster if I had to rate it back in March.

Now, onto the leak's faults. I'm going to come out and say it: it doesn't really have any. You could pull the whole "not every character was revealed at E3," but I'm against this reasoning for two main reasons. First of all, I don't know for certain who made that prediction; was it Sal or his tipster who said they'd all be out at E3? That's never been clarified to me... but I guess it doesn't really matter. It's entirely possible that the leaker saw something other than the E3 presentation and that they saw more characters than were revealed; it's not like they claimed to have seen that reveal ahead of time. I take a very similar stance to the whole "they didn't predict Rosalina" debate.

The thing I find most sketchy with the leak is the whole "Pokemon from X and Y" bit. It sounds like something out of a fake leak, but then again it could just mean that their source isn't the most detailed or descriptive. That makes it clear that the leaker's information isn't total and infallible even if their information is legitimate; this is important, and I will elaborate on this point later.

Now I must take into account what the leak got right. It got Little Mac, but that's very insignificant; EVERYONE on this thread said Little Mac had at least a 50% chance; he's the only character besides post-Direct Palutena to accomplice that. He was highly predictable; leaking him doesn't validate the tipster in the slightest. I don't think Mega Man does at all, either; you can throw me the whole "Mega Man wasn't expected, just wanted" thing, but the fact of the matter is he was a really, really big part of the discussion before the Direct. Villager was not a huge part of the discussion, however, but I feel he was semi-predictable; to be honest, I somewhat expected an Animal Crossing character despite Sakurai's comments; I know that I'm not the only one. I also suspected that there would be some sort of Pokemon shakeup [I have several old quotes proving this belief of mine], but I couldn't put my finger on it; the fact that the leaker was vague here means it can't really go too far in validating him.

That leads us to what really helps them out: the Wii Fit Trainer. There were probably only a half-dozen people who ever thought of this, and the documentation of it suggests less than that. I think she turned up on one or two old GameFAQs threads a while before the Direct and Pizzadudemanguy has a video in which he and his friends joke about her; that's it. It is possible that someone made her up for the sake of the leak and got a lucky guess (just look at some of the leaks people have tried--Tin Star, anyone?), but when factoring in that the leaker did nail a handful of other characters and hasn't reported anything wrong yet, I'd say the leak has a 66% chance.

...but I'm not done yet. Remember what I said earlier? When I was talking about them saying "a Pokemon form X and Y?" I believe this quote is proof that they don't know everything. Who is to say that the rest of their information is entirely accurate? They clearly haven't seen the game, and there is always a chance they have something confused because of this. I think this possibility knocks a few percentage off.

Overall, I slightly expect the leak to be real, but I would't be overly surprised if it were not. Now, onto want...

Gematsu Leak Want: 50%
What I have to look at here is NOT whether or not I would be satisfied with the overall character roster--it is only whether I would want the six characters in the leak in as playable. Those two are very different things. I'm thrilled with Mega Man, Villager, and Little Mac (and look forward to trying Greninja and Rosalina), so unless the rest of the characters are all those that I absolutely hate, I will be satisfied with the roster. However, that doesn't matter--all that I have to focus on is the group of Chrom, Shulk, Pac-Man, Mii, Palutena and "Chorus Men." Please note: I feel that if all of the members of this group get in, there is very little to no room for other newcomers; I'm treating them as if they eliminate or at the very least severely impair the chances of K. Rool, Ridley, and that gang.

Of these six, I would be heavily hyped by three--Palutena, Pac-Man and Shulk. Although I give Palutena a lot of flack and have Hades in my signature, she is still one of the newcomers that I am most hyped for. I'd be undeniably happy if her trailer starts to roll, and I really can't wait to see the community reaction for that one (remember how great it was for Mega Man and Little Mac?). I'm also a really big Pac-Man supporter; he's currently near the bottom of my top-ten, but I would definitely love him if he got in. Finally, Shulk is the character I want the most out of these three; my personal "Elite Four" is Shulk, Layton, Ridley, and Rool--if Shulk makes it in, it would definitely appease me for the lack of Rool.

The other half of the leak--Miis, Chrom, and "Chorus Men"--is something I have at best mixed thoughts about. Chrom is a character I've always bashed on, but I must admit that he and his fan base deserve it; I would kind of sigh over his inclusion and try to like him. "Chorus Men" are something I'm cautiously optimistic about; I think they'll be very interesting, and I'd probably try to use them. The real reason why I'm not ready to embrace them is that I have no idea how they'll actually play. If they have something overly gimmicky, I may be pushed away from them. Finally, we have Miis--I love Miis in general, but I'd prefer they stay out of Smash. I've been over this before--I'd prefer not to play as myself; I'd prefer to play as some cool video game character.

I am in favor of three, and I am undecided or against the other three. My thoughts on the leak, then, are mixed--it has a few of my favorite characters, but it has a few characters that I'm not really into. I look at it this way--someone walks up to me and says, "Hey, Groose. The six characters in the leak are actually getting in the game, but if you give the word, I'll wipe them out and start on six fresh ones--but you won't know who. What do you say?" In this case, I would be highly indecisive--I do like the cast that this introduces, but I can think of another realistic half-dozen group of characters that I like more--and also one I like less.

The leak to me is a compromise--it's not an ideal way to round out the roster, but it's certainly not a bad one.

Savvy Stylist: 0.01%
Blue is right in this instance, methinks--Savvy Stylist is not impossible. That said, I think she is very, very unlikely. It really comes down to demographics. The target audience of Style Savvy has barely any overlap at all with the Smash Bros. audience. You can pull the Wii Fit Trainer out here, but it won't work; Wii Fit was catered towards entire families and sold tens of millions of copies while Style Savvy was catered to younger girls and sold just a few million copies. All of my friends who play Smash have tried Wii Fit (and all but one of them own it and the Balance Board), but not a single one has tried or even heard of Style Savvy. Additionally, the Wii Fit Trainer was selected partly as a bit of a joke on the fanbase; the Savvy Stylist would be more akin to an act of aggression than a joke.

This just doesn't seem like any pick Sakurai has ever made to me before. If he does make it, one of his main motives is to surprise; in that case, there should be no way we should anticipate this character.

Savvy Stylist Want: 0%
This character sets off pretty much all of my pet peeves. In no particular order:

1) Being female isn't a reason to get added. I really don't care if a video game character is male or female unless if it's a part of their character. What I'm trying to get at is this--I don't really understand why someone looks at a character and goes, "they're female. I want them in because of that." I don't look at characters and go, "they're male. I relate to them now, and I want them in Smash." I am a male, but I that doesn't stop me from playing as the likes of Zelda or Samus in Smash. I really don't understand this whole mindset.

2) A character shouldn't have to be gimmicky to get in. There's an easy way for me to explain this one--I love how Little Mac looks, but it isn't because of his gimmicky K.O. Punch. I like the looks of him because I like how he's a fast, small character with a distinctive playstyle. If you present me with the Ice Climbers on one hand and Mr. Game and Watch on the other, I will take Game and Watch every time; he may not have the gimmick of having two characters fighting at once, but he stands out as a distinctive character and references his game in a lot of cool games. I just prefer something straightforward and interesting than something gimmicky and very interesting, as the Savvy Stylist is projected to be.

There are more, but I'm running out of time. I'll just briefly mention them: vanity of modern culture, ignoring popular characters for those no one really wanted, and my personal dislike for the games (yes, I have come into contact with the DS one before). Nothing that I have seen suggested anywhere so far would appeal to me less than Style Savvy.
Mr. Resetti x5

DAY OVER

...may take a while longer to start the next because I haven't tallied noms yet...
 
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Cpt.

Smash Lord
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Gematsu Leak: 50% Chance

I'd say that the first part is about a 80% chance and the second is about a 20% chance. That makes 50%
The first part was very impressive and correct. The unconfirmed characters are some of the msot likely ones left.
The second part of the leak was just a shot in the dark to get attention. "pokemon from x/y" saftey net and two VERY likely reps. Throw in a chorus men that isn't getting in and it looks like a legit spoil

Want: 65%

I don't really mind it except for Chorus Men and Wii Fit (don't mind her as much though)

Don't know the other character....

EDIT: Haha looks like I took a little too long to type. Shouldn't have been playing DS2 at the same time XD
 
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Groose

Smash Champion
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EDIT: Haha looks like I took a little too long to type. Shouldn't have been playing DS2 at the same time XD
It's in.

Gematsu Leak
50.16% chance
47.95% want

No wonder the leak is so controversial. The 57 of you who rated it have deemed it probably by a hair and unwanted by a hair. I have no more to say.

Savvy Stylist
4.67% chance
23.43% want

All said, the Savvy Stylist leaves with one very fashionable chance score. Unfortunately, the want score proves she's not really in style. I tried.

Today we're rating the chance that a veteran gets demoted to something less than playable, like an assist or boss. In addition, we're discussing Micaiah from the Fire Emblem series. Please rate Micaiah and Demoted Veteran in chance and want. Tomorrow we're discussing Slime and Anna; predict away!
 

False Sense

Ad Astra Per Aspera
Joined
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Messages
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FalseSense
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It's in.

Gematsu Leak
50.16% chance
47.95% want

No wonder the leak is so controversial. The 57 of you who rated it have deemed it probably by a hair and unwanted by a hair. I have no more to say.

Savvy Stylist
4.67% chance
23.43% want

All said, the Savvy Stylist leaves with one very fashionable chance score. Unfortunately, the want score proves she's not really in style. I tried.

Today we're rating the chance that a veteran gets demoted to something less than playable, like an assist or boss. In addition, we're discussing Micaiah from the Fire Emblem series. Please rate Micaiah and Demoted Veteran in chance and want. Tomorrow we're discussing Slime and Anna; predict away!
Wow. The leak has a near perfect 50/50 chance score?

...That just might be the most accurate rating we've ever made.
 
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