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[Arcanir]

Ike
Chances: 85%
I honestly don't think Chrom's (or Robin/Lucina's) potential addition hurts him that much. Unlike most other lords (including Roy), he actually is one of two that got pushed outside of just DLC via his descendant, which means that IS does still pay attention to the character. Plus, he's a very popular addition to the franchise and could easily be there alongside Marth and Chrom.

Want: 95%
I liked the character back in Path of Radiance and I really enjoyed both Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn, so I'd like to see him back.

Snake
Chances: 60%
Right now, I'm thinking he's higher then a coin flip as Sakurai likes the character and is close to Kojima so I think he will try to get him back, but there is good reason for concern about him. We haven't gotten any word on him in the game despite many veterans (including Sonic) being confirmed since E3, and there are issues that come with being a Third Party that can negatively affect him in general. As for the Kojima quote, it's rather neutral in that it could be a deflect or the truth, and unlike the SEGA comment, it wasn't as positive, so it stands completely in the middle.

Right now, I feel E3 is his best chance and I want to wait and see what happens there, if he misses it, then I'm worried that he may not return.

Want: 75%
I'm not that attached to the character or his series, but there is an appeal to him.

EDIT: A quick comment on whether Snake would have to be revealed in advance: remember, SSB4 is seeing two distinct releases, one this summer on 3DS, and one this winter on Wii U. Theoretically, Nintendo could keep some very notable characters, including even third parties, a secret up to the 3DS release and just keep doing newcomer/veteran reveals, including those snazzy trailers, in the time between releases to keep up the hype and maximize sales for both platforms. To that end, I could see Snake being held so that he's a cool surprise for 3DS players and then later on they can reveal him properly on the site/in a direct and show how awesome he is in HD.

I don't think they'd do that though as it would cut down potential sales the 3DS could initially have, and there's no guarantee that his later announcement would make up for it. Nintendo would also probably want to maximize on the opportunity sooner rather then later for both platforms rather then sacrifice one for the others sake, particularly since Snake is the type of character that would appeal more to those outside of Nintendo's usual audience, which is something very few other characters can do.

 

[mini paincakes]

Ike:
Chance- 70%
Want- 80%

I liked Ike in brawl, but I can easily see him getting cut in favor of Chrom. Three blue-haired lords from FE seems a bit much when there's a lot more interesting characters in the franchise (Anna, Robin, Lucina, etc.).

Snake:

Chance- 50%
Want- 100%

I only want him in because I'm a snake main in brawl and would hate to see him leave (he's also pretty badass). I could see him being cut since he barely has any history with nintendo and his presence promotes other consoles and MGSV. I could also see him staying since he attracts a more "mature" audience and because Kojima is apparently good friends with Sakurai.

 

[andimidna]

Predictions:

Wolf: 80%
Lucas: 80%

 

[IvanQuote]

Dang it, I wanted to comment on Jr and Jiggs. Oh well, that's College Crunch Time for you...

Ike:

Chance: 70%

I should probably abstain from Fire Emblem characters, but with my research, it appears that most attacks are based off of critical hit animations. Also, as implied by eruption, Sakurai does not necessarily follow what a character can do in game, so there can be easily 3 non clone FE reps, so Ike has a chance of staying in the face of competition.

Want: 50%

Meh. I have no preference whether he stays or not, just don't make him So.Damn.Slow.

Snake:

Chance: 30%

He is a really cool, original character, but he suffers SERIOUS competition from a Namco Rep. Also, he may clash with the newer colorful art style. My guess is that E3 will decide.

Want: 65%

Never was good playing as him, but I would be quite upset to see Shadow Moses Island go. I loved that stage.

 

[Groose]

I'm pretty happy that Palutena is actually beating Jigglypuff!
You know you've been practically confirmed when you out-score an original 12 character by almost 7%
Dang. Can't wait for her.

Do not under any circumstance let yourself think that a character is more or less likely because of their average here. Remember how low we rated Rosalina and Greninja?


Before I do any of the want scores today or tomorrow, I'd like to come forward with a bit of a confession. Whereas the vast majority of you are "No Cuts" advocates, I personally disagree with that type of roster. I'm an advocate for a "revolving roster." In my opinion, a Smash title should have a large group of every-game characters (about 25 characters strong; your Marios and Kirbys and Links), a sizable group of newcomers (about 10 characters we've never seen in a Smash title before), and a moderately-sized group of "fringe veterans" who could appear every now and again but didn't make the cut every time (your Wolfs, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem characters). If we just keep adding characters without cutting any out of the way, we're talking unsustainable growth, and we'd be bound for a major letdown at some point. A "revolving roster" would allow the games to continue stocking things with a good amount of newcomers, characters who I view as the lifeblood of speculation and hype; veterans who didn't make the particular installment could always make it in as a "fringe veteran" the next time or at the very least they'd be available on older games.

Methinks that that helps me explain why I'm more receptive to cuts than most, and it also explains why the want scores for the next two days... will be low.
Ike Chance: 70%
From the Chrom/Robin day:

I do think Ike will return, but there always is the possibility Sakurai decides that other characters from the series are simply higher-priority. I feel like there is the chance that time constraints may show no sympathy to Ike, but I really wouldn't count on it as much as I used to; the game seems to be progressing well, and it doesn't seem to be rushed as I thought it may be.

Ike Want: 20%
I kinda like Ike. He's a pretty good "foil" character to Marth from what I can see in Smash. That said, I have never played Path of Radiance or Radiant Dawn, and I really have little connection to him outside of Smash Bros; even there I view him as one of the less interesting characters. While I do kind of want him back because of his playstyle, I'd be extremely receptive of a cut here to open the way for more newcomers.
Snake's Chance: 66%
I still believe Snake has a very solid (ha!) chance of being in the game, and I'd argue that his inclusion is actually pretty probable. Sakurai knows that the vast majority of his fan base hates cuts and that a large percentage of his fanbase loves Snake, so I can't see him wanting to cut Snake; additionally, I don't see Konami being the party to prevent a deal from happening, either. The argument that Nintendo might disbar Snake is one I can't completely rule out, but I do think it's unlikely that it would happen; Snake did have a game launch on a Nintendo platform just as the roster was being decided (which is more than he had around Brawl's launch), so I don't think the argument that he's out because he's "abandoned Nintendo" has much merit.
Snake Want: 50%
I'm completely neutral on this issue. On one hand, Snake is one of my favorite characters to play as in Brawl, and I do enjoy the Metal Gear series. On the other hand, I'm receptive to cuts and feel that he'd make a good one because he's not the most Nintendo-oriented character, and there are other third-parties I'd want, too. I'll give him a 50/50--if he's in, cool, it'd be great to see him back; if he's out, cool, that means there are other characters to play as.

Remember, SSB4 is seeing two distinct releases, one this summer on 3DS, and one this winter on Wii U. Theoretically, Nintendo could keep some very notable characters, including even third parties, a secret up to the 3DS release and just keep doing newcomer/veteran reveals, including those snazzy trailers, in the time between releases to keep up the hype and maximize sales for both platforms. To that end, I could see Snake being held so that he's a cool surprise for 3DS players and then later on they can reveal him properly on the site/in a direct and show how awesome he is in HD.

I agree that this notion holds a great deal of merit. Personally, I expect Pac-Man at E3 and Snake in a trailer that'll come right before the 3DS installment's launch as the last-minute hype builder.

DAY OVER

Snake? Snake! SNAAAAAAKE!​

 

[Groose]

Ike
72.62% chance (was 82.73%)
75.22% want (was 77.59%)
Despite the pretty large drop in chance and the smaller drop in want, I can't help but be reminded of a certain video...

Snake
42.73% chance (was 62.66%)
60.14% want (was 63.92%)
That was... quite a chance drop. Y'know, that reminds me of another video...

Today is the last day of April and the last day of our special month. For our grand finale, we're rating two of the veterans who are most often maligned: Lucas and Wolf. I doubt they need any introduction at all, so please rate Lucas and Wolf. Tomorrow we're finally getting around to the things we were going to rate before the big Direct; please predict how Plasma King N and the concept "Only Popular Newcomers" all future newcomers being the big names we've talked about for months will do. Nominations will return tomorrow, and we'll have a boatload of extra ones to give out, too!

 

[Deleted member]

George Lucas

Chance: 50%

I can see both him and Ness joining the roster, but because the only clone there is so far is Toon Link, whom I'm sure was put in solely because of Wind Waker HD, I have my doubts.

Want (assuming Ness returns, which he most likely will, so this percentage is the only one that counts): 50%
Want (assuming Ness doesn't return and Ninten from Mother 1 doesn't fill his void): 100%


Wolf "Can't let you do that, Star Fox." O' Donnell

Chance: 70%

Wolf is approximately as much of a clone of Fox as Luigi is a clone of Mario, but unlike Wolf, Luigi is too important to be removed. Wolf is still an important character in his own right, though. Plus, Star Fox 64 3D.

Want: 50%

I'm indifferent.

 

[andimidna]

What if we already predicted their chances pre-direct?
Should we do it again to make things easier?

edit: 4 Zelda character avatars in a row!

 

[Wyoming]

Lucas

Chance - 90% - Still think his chances are high. Sakurai clearly likes him as evidenced by him almost replacing Ness in Melee with Lucas. Eventually he made it in Brawl. My main concern is the fact that both he and Ness still haven't been revealed yet. While it's entirely possible we'll get a secret Earthbound character, can we really expect both Mother kids to go down that route? However, perhaps they're just being heavily worked on, which is entirely possible given that they both sort of need it. He's the least likely out of the two to come back, but I'd say his chances are strong since there really shouldn't be any time constraint problems if what we know is anything to go by, and I don't think the roster is big enough to have too many drastic cuts yet.

Want - 60% - He's a veteran, not enough characters to make too many cuts yet as I said above and I'd say he was fairly enjoyable to play as. An improved Lucas sounds great too.

Wolf

Chance - 90% - Star's Fox's most viable villain, Sakurai clearly likes Star Fox with him wanting to use the series for a game at some point. Sakurai even went on to include him late into development. While some see that as a bad thing, I see it as a good thing, since that means Sakurai liked him enough to do it in the first place. Not to mention he has a sizeable fanbase. However he's a Brawl veteran, meaning his fate is still up in the air. Still rather confident he'll be back, however.

Want - 100% - My Brawl main. He came into Smash already more Luigified than Falco ever was in two games. He needs some slight tweaking, but for a late addition he was well-made and interesting. I'm personally interested in seeing how he changes Wolf this time around with more time to work on him, if he comes back of course. I also just love the character in the main Star Fox games.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Lucas

Chance 50/50

Well i think hes getting kicked but i realized sakurai decided just before he started to develope the game. Greninja and WFT were the most unexspected and we all thought toon link was kicked at first but that was until the day the bundle came.so its completly impossible to predict anything so im going with 50% because i can't conclude if lucas is gone or not

Want 30%

He was way to simular to ness

Wolf

Chance 80%

Wolf could be one of the cut because of falco but however i think both falco and wolf will survive. Because falco was here since melee and hes fox's partner and also that he can declone falco even more. I believe that almost every veteran will get new moves (by almost i mean all/most of them will get upgrade) but anyway now for Wolf. Hes a villian fans are asking for more villian reps and wolf is fox's rival. And same with falco can het declone big time. Especially the final smashes. I do think both falco and wolf will make it


Want 100%
He was my third choice for mains

 

[IvanQuote]

Lucas:

Chance: 70%

I'd say the same chance as Ike. Since he is kind of a spiritual to Mewtwo, if everyone's favorite genetically engineered cat thing doesn't return, he could take over some of his special attacks (disable->PSI Brainshock anyone?) because let's face it, his current specials scream "turn me into an alternate move." Otherwise, I feel he has a great chance.

Want: 75%

I have grown fond of Mother 3, so I sympathize with poor Lucas. Not that I am good as him, but I would like to see him return. Also if MEGA MAN, the king of games thrown by the wayside, is getting this special treatment, I would feel that cutting Lucas would disgrace Mother 3.

Wolf:

Chance: 50%

Very similar to Lucas. Save the specials, he is in no way a clone of Fox, so just a small alteration to the moveset would be necessary.

Want:75%

Despite that he is by far my worst character in Brawl (next to Peach and Wario) he is unique. Also, I vaguely remember (pre-Brawl) among my peers he was very requested, yet now he is a "unnecessary, dirty clone who deserves to be cut". I don't want to complain too much or get off topic more, so I'll say I still find him a great rep.


...somehow I feel as if I should have brought my flame shield with me.

 

[Glaciacott]

Lucas
Chance - 60%
Earthbound being re-released seemed to have solidified the series as a Nintendo classic, and I like how even now it still remains as one of the recommended top choices on the eShop. Meanwhile, Mother 3 still receives no mention in terms of ... well, anything. I actually expected to hear at any point of Japan getting Mother 3 for Wii U or something of that sort, but it seems like the game has been pretty neglected overall while the second in the series has achieved a high status.
I'm really unsure about Lucas in that sense, and while Ness is a given I think Lucas is one of the top contenders for the cut, along with Squirtle, Ivy and Snake.

Want - 25%
The small part of me that would want him is the one that would hope that his appearance encourage a reappearance of Mother 3 in Japan and then MAYBE finally a localization effort. But I find that possibility to be pretty dead by now.
Additionally, I think my ideal situation for Earthbound is for either just Ness, or Ness and Porky. Mostly because I feel those two represent both sides of the Mother franchise well enough, and also because I can't imagine other fan favorites like Kumatora or Duster getting in over Lucas. And since I'm a huge fan of Porky being in the game, and Lucas being replaced is the most likely possibility of that happening, my want for Lucas is considerably low.

Wolf
Chance - 75%
I feel like the only thing holding him back is the fact Falco is a more popular option for the second Star Fox character and the fact Star Fox has become small enough that they might dwindle. Even then, I don't think this is likely and while I believe no Fox newcomers will happen, I can envision all three current Fox characters remaining, and even being more unique.

Want - 90%
I was immediately drawn to Wolf in Brawl and was my main main. His playstyle is so much more fun to me than Fox or Falco, and it also helps that I love wolves so of course I wanted to use the cool, anti-hero character called wolf. I personally even feel I would like for the characters from Star Fox to just be Fox and Wolf, but I can respect Falco's return.
He does lose some want because I know already I won't use him that much. He's my brawl main, and for Smash 4 I'll be moving to Palutena a new main.

Predictions
Plasma King N - 0.2%
who?

Popular Newcomers - ???
How do you even define this? Is Chrom popular? Is Isaac? Is Shulk? Is Pac-Man?. ... Seriously don't understand this one.

 

[chronomantic]

-Lucas
Chance - 70% - he's pretty popular and the protagonist of Mother 3...a game that came out 8 years ago.
Want - 0% - hate clones.

-Wolf
Chance - 60% - a prominent villain of the series.
Want - 0% - change his moveset and Final Smash, otherwise bye.

 

[colder_than_ice]

The popularity chart has been updated.

Lucas
Chance: 80% - He's a very easy clone, that could help him or hurt him. He has about the same level of popularity and importance to the franchise as Ness, and would probably be on equal standing with him if it wasn't for the fact that Ness is a three time veteran.
Want: 72% - I prefer him to Ness.

Wolf
Chance: 70% - Nowhere near as important or popular as Fox and Falco, he was brought into SSB as filler. To his credit, he's far less of a clone than Falco and there isn't any major reason to cut him. Worst case scenario he gets cut to make room for more newcomers, possibly even the more unique Krystal.
Want: 63% - My favourite Star Fox rep.

N Prediction: 0.03%
All pops: 7%

 

[Chandeelure]

-Lucas:
Chances: 90%
Want: 100%

-Wolf:
Chances: 82%
Want: 90%

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Lucas
Chances: 85%
Want: 100%

Wolf
Chances: 10%
Want: 30%

 

[mini paincakes]

Lucas
Chance: 60%- Cool mother rep and is the character from the series who deserves to be in smash the most (besides ness). He might not make it because he's a clone and there hasn't been any mother games in years.
Want: 80%- I love the mother series, but I would rather have Masked Man Claus or Porkey. I still like Lucas though.

Wolf
Chance: 75% He's a starfox rep who plays differently but isn't as popular as falco in smash. If the smash development team had to pick between falco or wolf they might go with falco instead, but we could easily get both and make everyone happy.
Want: 85%- I'm not a big fan of star fox characters, but I like this guy way more than falco. They actually tried to make him different than fox instead going the falco route of just giving him a different reflector and slightly different laser.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Lucas
Chance- 60%
Want- 30%, he was a blonde Ness

Wolf
Chace- 70%
Want- 90%, ideally he'd stay and Falco would get replaced by Krystal

 

[FalKoopa]

SO the last of the post-direct ratings. The brand new chance and want charts will be up tomorrow!

Lucas: 85%
I don't see a reason to cut him. Mother series doesn't really have a viable character to replace him (Porky has a good chance of being a boss again.) Dropping from two characters to one is a 50% decrease, which isn't small

Want: 90%
I'm anti cut, but I don't particularly care for Lucas.

Wolf: 80%
He's an easy character to make: he was the last character developed for Brawl, AND he turned out more unique than Falco. Sakurai said he wants to avoid cuts... and Wolf is an example of a character who should be kept if he wants to keep as many characters as possible.

Want: 100%
My brother's main, and (as a result) I love to fight against him.

 

[Morbi]

Chance: 100%
Want: 50%

They are returning veterans; I wouldn't delude myself into fallacious notions with arbitrary justification.

 

[Erimir]

I don't think any veterans but Squirtle and Ivysaur should be seen as more likely than not to be cut. There could be as many as four or five more cuts, but there might also be zero or just one more. We don't really know at this point. Even if we estimate a little higher, the remaining veterans (who we haven't considered shoo-ins, like Captain Falcon) should average well over a 50% chance.

Lucas
+++ Veteran
+ Sakurai is a fan of the series
+ Represents the most recent Earthbound game
- Represents a Japanese-only game
- Earthbound is overrepresented for its size
- Semi-clone makes him more likely to be cut, mitigated by the fact that Toon Link got in again.

Lucas chances: 80%
Lucas want: 67%
I liked playing him in Brawl much more than Ness, for whatever reason. His specials are altered clones of Ness's, but everything else differs. I also like Earthbound.

Wolf
+++ Veteran
+ He's a villain
+ More different from Fox than Falco is
- - Is a semi-clone in a series that has two semi-clones

Wolf chances: 75%
Wolf want: 63%
I also liked playing Wolf in Brawl. His specials are pretty clone-y, but I don't see why he gets more hate for being a clone than Falco does. Falco is much more clone-ish than Wolf, who has all unique standard attacks, and overall a more different fighting style.

Predictions
N - 1%
All popular - 7%
I dunno. People are expecting surprises. Personally, with Greninja out of the way, the biggest wildcard (Pokemon newcomer) has likely been revealed. A new series that's not a popular choice (Rhythm Heaven or something) or an unexpected Fire Emblem choice (pulling another Roy, for example) are possibilities for more surprises, but we've got pretty good coverage of the major possibilities IMO. Unless we mean popular as in wanted... in which case Mii kinda puts a big damper on that.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Lucas: 95% I could see him getting cut when Sukari decides that he wants his fans to hate him.
Want: 100%

Wolf: 95% The main villian won't get cut.
Want: 100%

N: 0.12%
All Popular Newcomers: 0.73%

 

[andimidna]

Predictions:
N: 0%
Deconfirmed? Irrelevant? Pretty much, yea.
All popular newcomers: 5%
Most people will consider this deconfirmed too, right?
Wii Fit Trainer deconfirmed this.
I do expect one or two confused people to just mark it as a 50 though.
Wait. Are we rating the chance of all of the newcomers being popular in speculation?
Or all of the popular newcomers getting picked?
@ BluePikmin11 come here and explain this! :o


[Ratings will be here later]

 

[Xenigma]

Lucas - 50%
He's a Brawl veteran and one of only two reps of his franchise, which is generally a good place to start from. So why such a low rating, relatively speaking? Because he's so awfully unimportant. He's a semi-clone, his game never left Japan, and he's got absolutely nothing on three-time vet Ness. Meanwhile, looking at other JRPGs and similar franchises, Golden Sun doesn't have a spot yet, Xenoblade doesn't have a spot yet, and Fire Emblem is only growing in popularity, while Mother seems to be quite dormant with a small, if vocal, fanbase. Lucas could easily sneak in due to favoritism or just as an easy late addition, but it's just as easy to see him be cut, especially as he'd be one of the least painful ones in the roster.
Want - 25% - He's not a bad addition per se, but I don't think Mother particularly deserves two characters.

Wolf - 75%
Star Fox as a franchise is difficult to call because it has not two but three versions of the same character, which seems like it should hurt the chances of both (semi-)clones, and while Wolf is a fair bit different from Fox and Falco, he's also the newest rep for the franchise and quite possibly the least popular of the trio. I'm confident the franchise will still have at least two characters and could even see the whole set return as Falco enjoys lots of enduring popularity from his glory days in Melee while Wolf acts as the primary villain/rival, but if Sakurai looks for cuts, Star Fox feels like an obvious target, and I don't know who would win between Falco and Wolf. As such, I'll keep Wolf's rating fairly high, but definitely with some room for reasonable doubt.
Want - 75% - Star Fox doesn't excite me both in terms of games and Smash characters, but between him and Falco, I'd much rather take the former as he's more distinct in terms of design and IMO more fun to play.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Lucas

Chance - 100%
Want - 100%


Wolf

Chance - 75%
Want - 60%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Lucas: 80%
Why would he be dropped? Fire Emblem is more of a discussion because of IS, but MOTHER has no reason to replace or any real reason to loose a character. Yes, it's over-repped for sales, but it is an original 12 franchise, and it's a series Sakurai loves.

Want: 100%
I loved Mother 3, and I hope it comes to Virtual Console... yeah it didn't get a physical release, but digital is cheaper to make allowing them to take a bigger risk with the game. I don't think it will, but Lucas is great, and if he doesn't make Smash 4 then that pipedream is pretty much dashed.


Wolf: 80%
I think there's about a 75% chance of keeping 3 Starfox characters, and Wolf and Falco has the higher place in the runnings, but I only give him 90s... add a token % for Krystal, but only token...

Want: 90%
I'm not a big spacey's fan, but I prefer to play wolf than the other two.



N: 0.06%
His gimmick is that he uses local wild pokémon... not exactly something you can do in smash...

Vague and unexplained rating: Abstain
I don't understand... and by any meaning hasn't this been deconfirmed by Greninja?

 

[NickerBocker]

Lucas
Chance: 85%
Want: 100%

Please don't cut my secondary. Sakurai trying to avoid cuts helps his chances, and his similarity to Ness could help influence his inclusion. I would think Sakurai is hesitant to cut such a small franchise down to one character again.

Wolf
Chance: 85%
Want: 85%

I really like this character. A dirtier version of Fox who slashes with claws and has heavier attacks. Keeping Wolf in the game is a good way to keep the franchise well rounded. Do we need Krystal? maybe, but I'm guessing not for this game (Maybe Smash 5.)

N: 0.65%
All Popular Characters: 1.7%

 

[Deleted member]

Well... that was a drop for Snake. Is it bad that I still find him to be overrated?
Wolf and Lucas have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these two before, check to see what you've said on their days!

Wolf
Chance: 80%
10% lower than before. To be honest, I am not that confident in Wolf like I was before. I still am, but when one of the most likely cuts was removed, it's a bit worrying for Wolf. He was a last minute addition in Brawl. Luck helped him make it in, but will he be lucky again?
His uniqueness is both a boon and a curse in his case, unlike other characters. It's a boon because his uniqueness makes him stand out amongst the crowd in Brawl and it might help him get chosen over Falco if only one of them can make it in. It's a curse because Sakurai might put in Falco to save time on Wolf, who had an entirely unique moveset.
I think that there is still some fight in Wolf. He is still a popular Star Fox character and is one of the most important in the series. I can see him return.
Want: 100%
I would be pretty sad if he got cut. He had a fun moveset and he was much more fun to play as than Falco. If he doesn't come back, then I would understand. I can't put him on the same levels as Captain Falcon, Ness, Ganondorf, Mr. Game & Watch, Meta Knight, and Wario.

Lucas
Chance: 70%
He is in some danger... but he isn't the most in danger.
The Mother/EarthBound community is powerful as their voices are often heard from Nintendo. With the return of Mr. Saturn and the Franklin Badge, it's definitely easy to say that we will get the Mother kids again. Out of the two, Ness is the only true shoo-in. Other than being a three-time veteran and having a unique moveset, Ness also as the gift of having his game finally be re-released on the Virtual Console; this means that people nowadays will experience EarthBound.
Lucas, on the other hand, doesn't even have his game localized. Not many people have played it unless they played the fan translation of his game. It also doesn't help that Lucas lacks a certain uniqueness to him. He is not the worst offender when it comes to semi-clones, but I can see him gain new moves.
I can see Lucas return... but I still have doubts that he might not.
Want: 25%
His story is so sad! Mother 3 was an amazing game and it warrants representation in Smash!
...And yet, I am not keen on Lucas returning. If the series was only represented with just Ness, I would be happy with it. I like Ness more than Lucas, both in terms of Smash with his play style and his overall character. I'm not a fan of Lucas's moveset; it's not that exciting or special really. Admittedly, I haven't played Mother 3; I plan on to eventually and I will if Nintendo proves to be lazy and not give us an official translation. I played EarthBound from beginning to end twice and I loved it (it's among one of my favorite RPGs, alongside Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, Pokemon White, and, of course, Xenoblade Chronicles)!
What I am trying to say is that I don't really have a connection to Lucas. I was content when he was first revealed on Brawl's DOJO!!, but I was worried with that damn quote about Ness. When Brawl was released, I was very meh about Lucas; it didn't help that the Subspace Emissary gave him a poor introduction in my eyes. I like Ness and I much rather see him return. If Lucas comes back... eh. I rather see a newcomer than Lucas...
I would be sad that Mother 3 would lose representation, but I am content with just Ness.

N Prediction: 0%
What poor timing on N's part. He was supposed to get rated before the Direct. Now that character swapping is removed... I think that he is going to get decimated.
"All Popular Newcomers" Prediction: .21%
If the Direct was any indication, this isn't going to happen.

 

[Smasher 101]

Lucas's chances: 70% - If they have to make several cuts, I think he's one of the more likely to go.
Want: 60% - I'd prefer if he stayed, but wouldn't miss him too much if he didn't.

Wolf's chances: 80% - Less than before. Still find it likely that Star Fox will have what it did in Brawl.
Want: 80% - I want Star Fox to stay as it was in Brawl. But I don't use him that much, he's my least favorite of the Star Fox trio by far, so I'd miss him less than others.

N prediction: 0%
Confusing name prediction: 0.29%

 

[Rockaphin]

Lucas:
Chance: 65%
Want: 50%

Wolf:
Chance: 70%
Want: 80%

Predictions:
N: 0.00000000001%
All Popular Characters: 7.1%

 

[DeOnde]

I missed yesterday's... can i do it anyway?

Spoiler

I'll make it quick since i missed the day

Ike: Chance: 78%

Uniqueness in the series, but threatened by chrom, high risk of blue hair overload.

Want: 78%

I like sending people flying with the one-hand two-handed sword

Snake: Chance: 30%

Not so relevant for smash, was in Brawl because Kojima is Sakurai's friend.

Want: 65%%

He is cool, brings nice contrast to the game, hides in boxes, BUT, if i would have to choose for a Konami character... つ ◕_◕ ༽つ give Simon つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

Lucas: Chance: 67%

Really, Lucas's fans shouldn't be so excited about him returning, in Brawl he was pretty much a clone, from a japan only game, and without a localization of his game, his repercussion is rather low.

Want: 70%

I'm not the biggest Lucas fan, i finished Earthbound and it was one of the best RPGs i have ever played (and ever will play) in my life. But, i have never played mother 3, so i don't have the same affection for the blonde kid that i have for Ness. But, i wouldn't mind his return, as long as they give him some more original moves, and of course NO MORE SHARED FINAL SMASHES. Give Ness PSI Rockin' (It'd be great if we could personalize the name of the move, the time i finished Earthbound i named my party with the names of my friends, and named my special move PSI Duck, One of my friends that also played it named his PSI Chic, that pokémon double pun) and Lucas PSI Love (won't make fun of the name).


Wolf: Chance: 75%

Every series needs it's villain, and wolf does the job. In the impossibility of putting Andross as a playable character (and his confirmation as an assist trophy), Wolf is the best suited for it.

Want: 85%

Man, i love playing Wolf. Won't lie to you, playing with any of the Star Fox characters is a pleasure to me. And wolf is the most unique out of the three, his slashing moves, and power-based playstyle, there is no way i would want him replaced by... urgh, i don't even like to say her name... Krystal. (Leave her out of Smash). And, despite the tradition "one star fox newcomer per title", i would have no problem as long as the Brawl Star Trio returned, with NEW FINAL SMASHES (Let Fox keep the Landmaster, Give Falco an Arwing, and Wolf an Airstrike from his team members)..

 

[PKNinja95]

Lucas
Chance: 65% If Ness has a arranged moveset then it's possible.
Want: 100% Mother 3 was one of my favorite RPG's and even in Japanese I knew it was some sad **** ;_; Worth the import. And Lucas was my main in Brawl.

Wolf
Chance: 80% I'd rather have him in than Falco cuz he's not as much of a clone as Falco.
Want: 95% He was the only Starfox character I used

 

[FalKoopa]

While it may not be much, the Ultimate Chimera from Mother 3 was acknowledged in today's pic.

 

[PKNinja95]

While it may not be much, the Ultimate Chimera from Mother 3 was acknowledged in today's pic.

Really?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lucas Chance: 85% I feel pretty confident about his return ever since he shown New Pork City brawl footage back in the direct and in today's pic of mentioning Ultimate Chimera even though it may not be much of an evidence.
Lucas Want: 100% Totally deserves to back in the roster, it is a roster about the greatest Nintendo characters isn't it?

Wolf chance: 85% Same as Lucas', as I think his uniqueness has the upper edge to get in over Falco.
Wolf want: 75% I started to like him more when I got to playing Brawl again, I don't think he'll be cut anytime soon.

Also again as a reminder:

Popular Newcomer Candidates as in all the characters that are popular like Isaac, Chrom, Robin, Waddle Dee, Toon Zelda all the newcomers that are usually in lots of prediction rosters in Smashboards.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chance: 100%
Want: 50%

They are returning veterans; I wouldn't delude myself into fallacious notions with arbitrary justification.

This game runs on fallacious notions with arbitrary justifications, though.

For example:

Lucas
Chance: 80%
Popular character considering his Japan only status, Sakurai has a bit of a liking of the series, Mother fans seem to prefer him to Ness from what I've seen. Still in the danger zone though due to semi clone status and being one of the more obvious cuts.

Want: 20%
Not a huge fan of Japan only games, and being british we only just got Ness' game officially last year. Like 14 years after he debuted in SSB 64. Have absolutely no connection to Lucas at all so honestly wouldn't miss him if he randomly vanished off the roster. As long as we get Ness, I don't see a reason we NEED Lucas I guess.

Wolf
Chance: 80%
One of the more obvious cuts, semi clone, last character to make it into Brawl pretty much...BUT...he's far different from Fox and Falco, and seems to have been planned(like Lucas) for Melee originally.

Want: 100%
My favourite spacie. Feels less cloney than the other semi clones, which was especially impressive considering many felt he was a rushed last minute character.

PREDICTIONS:
N
0.00002%
N is for No. Trainer appears to be cut, what hope does this secondary trainer have really?

All popular Newcomers:
3%
Ridley's already out according to many on Smashboards. Chances we get Isaac, Bandana Dee, Chrom, Palutena, King K. Rool AND Dixie are slim...not as slim as N's chances, but still unlikely.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Lucas
Chance- 75%
Unlike Ike, he doesn't have to fear anyone "replacing" him. On the other hand, he is one of the more obvious cuts
Want- 30%
His series doesn't deserve two characters, he is Japan only, and doesn't have a unique moveset (yes, I know he "plays differently" but you know what I mean). I'll give him 30% for the sake of unfortunate Mother fans who have already been deprived of his game.

Wolf
Chance- 85%
Do I see the Star Fox franchise getting a new rep? No. Do I see them losing one? No.
I also don't see Krystal replacing him. She isn't more important to the franchise and I don't see Sakurai going back and essentially admitting a mistake that she should have been added instead of Wolf. Something about that just doesn't sound likely to me.
Want- 90%
I know he is a semi clone, but I like him so there's that. 10% off in case his moveset isn't further diversified... starting with the Landmaster.

 

[SpiderJerusalem]

Lucas: 60%
Lucas is a bit iffy because his series is irrelevant and arguably doesn't need two reps, especially considering Lucas' game (Mother 3) wasn't released in the states. However, I don't believe Sakurai wants to make a lot of cuts.
Want: 75%
I would like Lucas back, I don't like cuts ever, but I wouldn't be too distraught if he was cut. I play Ness over him more anyways.

Wolf: 65%
Same reasons as Lucas, but I think it's a bit more in Wolf's favor because Wolf's a villain, a recognizable villain from a well-known Nintendo franchise (albeit a comatose one), and Star Fox 64 3DS gives him a slight edge
Want: 100%
One of my Brawl mains, one of my favorite characters in Smash and Star Fox, plus he has such a kick*** theme, I'd be bummed if he didn't make it back in

 

[PKNinja95]

Wish they made a Mother 1+2+3 for the 3DS with 3D remade graphics.

And I wish the Star Wolf team had there own spin off game

 

[SpiderJerusalem]

Wish they made a Mother 1+2+3 for the 3DS with 3D remade graphics.

And I wish the Star Wolf team had there own spin off game

yes please, I hope Nintendo has a secret Star Fox/Mother game planned to announce at E3.

also Seattle nice, northwest reppin, best coast. Hope you're going to Northwest Majors