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Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Old thread needs to be closed.

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Rate and Discuss Their Chances: Characters! (Ridley and King K. Rool, Day Three)

Day Three begins here!

Up For Discussion and Predictions: Ridley
Up for Voting: King K. Rool
Up for Re-Voting: No one

Welcome everyone to the revival of what is known as Rate Their Chances!

Speculation is an important part of the Smash Bros. community. Almost everyone in the community has at least one desire for a character to join up in Smash and there are many of us here with many hopes and dreams in regards to the rosters. Smash Bros. is of course about the characters and as such, the most heated discussion before the release of the game is of course the characters.

What many people love about discussing characters is discussing their likelihood. They want to show the world that the character they dream of is a possibility and are willing to debate, argue, flame, and tear their way to have people understand their points. Rate Their Chances is intended to reflect that same feeling in regards to debate and even arguing if it gets intense (not so much flaming). Almost anyone is fair game, so the next 1 2/3 - 2 2/3 years will be one of Smash 4's greatest spectacle in speculation.

So with that said let the debates and voting begin!


(but before you start, make sure to read below. All of it)

How To Play:
Of course we can't play this game without knowing how to, so as we would expect from all games, a way to play it needs to be known.

There are two methods of ratings you can use; one is rating a character's chances and one is rating how much you want the character. A letter grade system will be used for rating chances as it helps encourage trying to more objectively rate a character and not just put up a number and say "that's how likely that character is." To make things simpler, it will also be be used to gauge how much you want a character. The letters that can be used are S, A, B, C, D, and F.*

How you use these grading system is up to your interpretation of likelihood, but for example, this would be mine:

S: These characters are due to get in. Little to no reason not to expect them.

A: A bit more problematic, but these characters definitely have strong odds. Most likely will get in.

B: Some issues are definitely present with their inclusion, but they are certainly realistic since they are at least plausible. Could happen, but could miss as well.

C: These characters are kind of on the low side of likelihood, but they still have an outside shot.

D: Possible, but odds are slim as there are many strong arguments against their inclusion.

F: Just not happening no matter how you look at it.

*: You don't have to use the colors when putting in a letter grade for a character.

You can also predict the score a character gets. Those who are looking for extra nominations to vote for the character they want to get in can predict the closest score of a character being discussed. When predicting, you must predict anywhere from 0 to 5 with decimal places going up to the hundreath (an example prediction would be 3.29). A letter system is not used for predictions. The winner will receive five more votes to use on whoever they want as long as the character is eligible. However, this only applies for chances.

There are four phases to a character. First phase last until a character is up for discussion, phase two and three last a day, and phase four lasts until they meet the necessary requirements, then phase two and three will repeat for said characters.

Phase I: Nominations - This phase is where you can nominate a character, in which you have five nominations. Every day, you may nominate, regardless of circumstances, as long as the character is eligible for nominations.. The one that receives the most nominations will go on to the next phase, which is...

Phase II: Discuss - Here is where we start discussing a character's odds. There will be an opening argument, which anyone can take and we can debate from there for a day. Discuss the things that makes a character a possibility and what obstacles they have to face while being respectful and keeping this fun. This is where you can predict a character's score and only in this phase can you do so. You are also allow to vote for the character in how much you want to see it in this phase. However, you cannot vote for how likely a character is. Make sure to look at the "Methods That Are Not Allowed" section and the FAQs for help in regards to this. Here's an example format from the second day, using myself as an example:
Anyway, I am nominating Lucario, Krystal, Mach Rider, Isaac, and Saki Amamiya.

I give King K. Rool a S in how much I want him. He would make a brilliant addition and would fit excellently with the rest of the past. Also, those memories of him in Donkey Kong Country and Donkey Kong 64 were so good. Should definitely be in this game.

If I had to say one newcomer above the rest in likelihood, one that I am so confident on that I would be utterly shocked at the exclusion of, it is King K. Rool.

King K. Rool easily fufills all four criterias that Sakurai has laid down. People are obviously going to want to play as him and K. Rool is likely among the Top 3 in popularity (my guess is second behind Mewtwo and front of Ridley). K. Rool of course will be unique as making an unique and enjoyable move set doesn't take a lot of effort in comparison to most characters. Of course he could fit very well into the game and is adaptable to fighting other characters.

King K. Rool is also very important to the series. He's what people think about for a Donkey Kong main villain and if they outcry for the lack of Kremlings indicates anything, it's that King K. Rool is considered an important part of the franchise and hasn't been forgotten. K. Rool will likely return in a Donkey Kong game eventually.

Also, being of Western origin is not an argument against K. Rool as Diddy Kong got in and he was of Western origin.

I conclusion, I seriously think he is getting in. Unless there are some major developments that hurts his popularity or importance to the series, I see his inclusion as close to a shoe-in as possible (only possible to be excluded because, well, anything could happen with the roster). I would say he is highly deserving of being in a Smash game, as a matter of fact, one of the most deserving newcomers period.

I predict that King K. Rool will get a 4.42 in likelihood when the voting phase ends.


Phase III: Vote - Now here is the voting phase for a character. You can vote for how likely a character is to be in SSB4 with you able to give final thoughts on a character; however, arguments and debates are to be ceased as another character behind it has that and that's where the main discussion should be. Those who participated in the discussion phase do not have to explain their votes as they already have done so, but those who haven't must explain why they think the character has the shot that they do. You may not predict the score of the character being voted as that would leave room for cheating. However, you are still able to vote for how much you want a character.

Phase IV: Final Score and Revotes After the voting phase is over, I will average all the votes and the final score is revealed along with who was the person who was the closest to the final score, who will get five more nominations. They will be divided into sections; veterans and newcomers. Veterans are anyone that has appeared as playable in a previous Smash game while newcomers are ones who have yet to be in one. Scores can range anywhere from S to F.

See below:
S (4.6-5)
A (4.1-4.5)
A- (3.6-4)
B (3.1-3.5)
B- (2.6-3)
C (2.1-2.5)
C- (1.6-2)
D (1.1-1.5)
D- (0.6-1)
F (0-0.5)
The character will then be put up for re-voting one month from now and when that times comes, they are eligible to be voted again; however, do be aware that it is part of your five (or even ten) nominations and it spread out to both first timers and ones being re-voted. This is to discourage discussion on the same ten characters over and over again and reduce stagnation. In order to have a character re-voted, they must have 100 votes.

Re-voting works mostly the same; however, after a re-voting of a character ends, the score they get during the re-voting will replace their original score; although all scores the character get are still visible.


Rules:
In this intense forum where flame wars are very susceptible to breaking out, some order will be needed to keep things clean.

1. Anyone that is not a video game character (Goku), a video game character that has not gotten on a Nintendo game (Master Chief), or one that doesn't exist (Gen 6 Pokemon) are not eligible for ratings. No exceptions.

2. This is a game, please treat it as such. Respect everyone's opinion, including ones who you dissent from. All rules for this forum still applies. And for the love of god, dont bring your grudges here.

3. Debates about the character is fine. As a matter of fact, it is encouraged. However, flame wars are not tolerated and will be punished on site. Anyone that participates in them will be reported for flaming and lose the ability to nominate characters or vote for two days on the first offense. The second offense is four days, the third offense results in me banning you from being able to participate.

4. Bias is inevitable when it comes to opinions, but keep them in check. Giving a character a S in likelihood because you think it would be awesome is not going to be counted. Likewise, giving a character an F in likelihood because you absolutely loathe it is going to get your vote skipped. Troll voting is also unacceptable and that will result in you being unable to nominate or vote a character for two days.

5. Any of the characters below are not eligible due to being agreed upon universally that they will be in:

- Mario
- Luigi
- Peach
- Bowser
- Donkey Kong
- Diddy Kong
- Yoshi
- Wario
- Link
- Zelda
- Samus
- Pit
- Kirby
- King Dedede
- Fox
- Pikachu
- Captain Falcon

Anyone else is fair game in regards to likelihood. Veterans from Melee and Brawl will be put into their own category and all of the veterans not eligible will be put in the S category. This is to prevent a case of "why are we voting someone so obvious it's not funny?"

6. A character needs about 100 votes before they get another shot at revotes. Also, after a character gets voted, they will not be voted again for in a week. Revotes will occur at the same time a new character is being rated and the new percentage will replace the old one (thought all voting sessions for each characters will be shown and linked to).

7. Do not use this thread in order to "increase" or "decrease" a character's chances. This thread is a game, meaning that it should be treated as such; just for fun and nothing else. You will gain absolutely nothing from this.

8. NEVER, EVER, counter the ratings. If you don't like how well/poor a character is doing in the chances scale, that's too bad. It does not give you the excuse to give the character a S or a F and doing so will only show that you are butthurt because people disagree with you. Anyone who does this will lose the ability to vote or nominate on sight for two days. Punishment is the same for flaming.

Failure to adhere to these rules will result in your ability to participate in this thread being removed.


Fallacious Arguments That Are Not Allowed:
I encourage any form of logic in debates, but what I don't accept are arguments and votes that are pure bias on a user (unless that bias is used for how much they want a character and only that). Some arguments that will invalidate a vote if no valid arguments is present:

This character sucks/rocks and won't/will be in because of this: Love/hate the character? Give a F or a S on the want scale, not on the chances scale. Rating chances requires you try to be objective and explain why you believe your choice has the shot it does. If all your chances vote are influence by pure bias, then you shouldn't be participating.

She's a female, therefore likely: And before anyone points to what Sakurai said about Zero Suit Samus, she fulfilled Sakurai's four criteria's, so she would have still gotten in even if Sakurai wasn't concern about adding females. Females that do get in will get in by their own merit and what Sakurai thinks of them, not by affirmative action.

He/she/it is a villain: Since when has Sakurai ever added a character based off being a villain? Villains will only be added if they are worthy of a spot, being a villain means nothing and if that is all you have, then you have no ground to stand on saying a character has a good shot of being in.

He/she/it has no potential for fighting!: Unless you can explain why the character doesn't have the potential to fight, then if this is all you have, your vote is invalidated. End of story.

He/she/it will be in because... I say so!: Explain why you think a character's odd is what they are. Don't just slap in a likelihood rating and expect me to count it. It in no way does it show that you have reasons to believe that a character is of that likelihood.


FAQs:
Are we allow to use the letter grading system for veterans?

If they're eligible for this thread, of course. After all, it does include the cut Melee vets.

I want to participate in this, but I don't know where to start for or against a character's chances.

The most important thing to look at is Sakurai's four criteria. Every character in Brawl met this, so it's a good thing to go by. The four criteria Sakurai mentioned are:

- People must want to play as this character
- The character must be unique
- The character must fit into the game
- The character must be adaptable

If a character fits, chances are that they have a realistic chance of getting in.

Other things to keep in mind is the importance of the character, Sakurai's bias and interest in a character's inclusion for SSB4, and to a lesser extend, representation. Also keep in mind that Sakurai usually includes transformation when discussing characters, saying that Melee has 26 instead of 25 and Brawl has 39 instead of 35. Relevance, promotion and patterns are also allowed in here, since I can see the reason why people use them, but given that Sakurai has stated nothing about any of these being a contributing factor, I would discourage people from using it and stick to what Sakurai has stated.

Once we vote/predict, are we allow to change them?

Of course, but you are only allow to change predictions during the discussion phase of a character and change votes on likelihood during the voting stage. Now votes on what you want can change on both discussion and voting phase since unlike prediction, you can't cheat on what you want and you shouldn't have to like/dislike a character because another person does.

Will voting veterans and newcomers come at the same time or will only one character be voted, regardless of status?

Only one character will be voted, regardless of status.

Are nominations for veterans and newcomers different?

No. You only get five nominations, regardless of who the character is.

Do we have to spread out our nominations to different characters?

No you don't. You can concentrate it all on one character or concentrate it on multiple characters.

Will there be times when days are shorten and days are longer?

Days will never be shorten because every characters deserves at least twenty-four hours. However, there will be quite a few days when days are longer since scheduling is a ****.

Can I use numbers for wants and likelihood votes instead of a letter grade system?

No, numbers are only used for predictions. Wants and likelihood will always use a letter grade system, no exception. Not using the letter grade system to vote on how much you want a character or how likely you think the character is will result in your votes being invalidated.

When can we predict the score the character gets in likelihood, when we can rate the character in likelihood, and rate the character in how much we want him?

You can only predict a character's score during the discussion phase as you cannot rate him in likelihood during that phase. This is done so that cheating is minimized and even prevented. You can rate the character in likelihood during the voting phase as when that phase comes in, predictions can no longer be made and the discussion phase has served it's purpose to reduce bias. As for when you can rate how much you want a character, you are free to do so during either the discussion or voting phase as it serves as an optional choice and cheating is technically impossible since you cannot predict how well a character does in how wanted the character is.

How long is this game going to last?

Until the day Smash 4's roster is officially revealed and confirmed.

After Smash 4, are you going to run a variation for Smash 5?

Smash 4 is one of the last games I even care about. After this one, I am going retro (unless of course Smash 5 has enough potential characters that I may be interested in). So someone will have to take over for Smash 5 speculation.

Lame. We're only discussing and rating characters? What else is there to it?

Music to fit the character. You can mention music for specific characters if you want more of a soundtrack for it while it is still up in discussion/voting phase. I will also create a game thread specifically for the General Discussion SSB4 forum, which will cover other aspects of the game.

Anything I can do to help?

A banner would be nice, but not necessary. However, you can help by suggesting how to improve this so that this can be a more enjoyable experience for everyone.

Yay! A character did well in ratings! I'm going to use this to push a character I want!

Did you hear? Bad things happen when you try to use this to push for characters inclusion.


Veterans and Newcomers:
Want to see how a character did? Check here:

Veterans:
S:
1. Mario (5)
2. Luigi (5)
3. Peach (5)
4. Bowser (5)
5. Donkey Kong (5)
6. Diddy Kong (5)
7. Yoshi (5)
8. Wario (5)
9. Link (5)
10. Zelda (5)
11. Samus (5)
12. Kirby (5)
13. King Dedede (5)
14. Fox (5)
15. Pikachu (5)
16. Captain Falcon (5)
17. Pit (5)

S-:

A:

A-:

B:

B-:

C:

C-:

D:

D-:

F:

Newcomers:
S:

S-:

A:

A-:

B:

B-:

C:

C-:

D:

D-:

F:

Changes to Characters:
S:

S-:

A:

A-:

B:

B-:

C:

C-:

D:

D-:

F:

Alternate Costumes:
S:

S-:

A:

A-:

B:

B-:

C:

C-:

D:

D-:

F:

Nominations:
Ridley x22
Palutena x12
Mewtwo x11
Mega Man x10
Takamaru x10
Ghirahim x9
Shulk x7
Starfy x7
Muddy Mole x6
Rosalina x6
Saki x6
Lloyd Irving x5
Waluigi x5
Isaac x5
Geno x5
Dixie Kong x4
Paper Mario x4
Sophitia Alexandra x4
Dark Samus x4
Chibi-Robo x4
Zoroark x4
Ness x4
Mii x3
Bowser Jr. x3
Little Mac x3
Toad x3
Lucas x3
Mach Rider x3
Sonic x3
Black Shadow x3
Plusle & Minun x3
Lucario x3
Pacman x2
Medusa x2
Samurai Goroh x2
Duck Hunt Dog x2
Andy x2
Krystal x2
Team Rocket - Golbat, Raticate, Muk x2
Tingle x2
Ganondorf (decloned) x2
Shy Guy x2
Heracross x2
Lip x2
Sukapon x2
Tails x1
Birdo x1
Leon x1
Captain A x1
Medusa x1
Klonoa x1
Majora's Mask Link x1
Prince Sable x1
Animal Crosser x1
Meowth x1
Adam Malkovich x1
Henry Cooldown x1
Zero Suit Samus x1
Pokemon Trainer (Red) x1
Black Knight x1
Ray x1
Quote x1
Barry x1
Rebecca Chambers x1
Kunio x1
Collette Brunel x1
Roy x1
Sabrina (Pokemon) x1
Ayane (Dead or Alive) x1
Toon Zelda x1
Chaos (Sonic the Hedgehog) x1
Wolf x1
N Harmonia x1
Cranky Kong x1
Tom Nook x1
Dunsparce x1

Links And References:
Day One (Nominations): #1 - #59
Day Two (King K. Rool): #59 - #126
Day Three (Ridley and King K. Rool): #126 - ???

Have you read all of this? If not, go back and read them. Then come below and have fun!







---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Music For All To Enjoy:

Game:
Nomination Music (Earthbound Main Menu Theme, Any Day)
Discussion, Debating, and Arguing (Yu Yu Hakusho's Monster Suit, Any Day)
A Heated Argument (Dragon Ball Z's Japanese Fight Theme, Any Day)

Characters:
King K. Rool's Battle Theme (Donkey Kong Country Trilogy) (King K. Rool, Day Two)

Misc.:
"I'm Coming Out" (Diana Ross, Any Day)

Day One: Nominate Your Favorite Character!:

Want to debate and vote? Simple, just vote for who you want and keep vote five times on whoever you want in a day! Step right up and vote for who you deem worthy of the trial. No mercy shall be spared upon those who enter.

Day One Begins Now! Due to my work schedule, the first day will last until I get home after work tomorrow after 11 PM CST/12 AM EST. You have until I get home from work tomorrow shortly after that time to nominate, leaving you with thirty-two hours.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Today, I will use my nominations on the following; Mega Man, Mewtwo, Lucario, Mach Rider, and Mii.
 

BKupa666

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My nominations: K. Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, Palutena, Little Mac

Let's clear the obvious ones out of the way first.
 

Holder of the Heel

Fiat justitia, pereat mundus
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Ghirahim
Paper Mario
Palutena
Geno
Mii

These are my nominations.
 

Baskerville

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My nominations
Rosalina
Palutena
Takamaru
King K. Rool
Mewtwo
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Just got a section up for nominations counts.
Ridley
King K. Rool
Mewtwo
Isaac
Ganondorf (de-cloned)

:phone:
Edit: never mind, just realized I can put it here instead since it related to characters.

I will also be putting up options for alternate costumes. Decloning and alternate costumes are counted separately, just like how newcomers and veterans are considered separate.
 

Opossum

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Nominate:

K. Rool
Muddy Mole
Little Mac
Starfy
Palutena
 

gothrax

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I shall nominate!!!

Birdo and leon (duh) , bowser jr, captain A(pikmin3) , balloon fighter.

:phone:
 

Opossum

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I shall nominate!!!

Birdo and leon (duh) , bowser jr, captain A(pikmin3) , balloon fighter.

:phone:
About this...since we don't know his name, but they exist, are the New Pikmin Captains eligible? Just a question...
 

Jhonnykiller45

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We need to get the obvious ones out of the way, so my votes for now go to :
Newcomers :
K. Rool
Ridley
Dixie Kong
Waluigi

Veterans:
Mewtwo

We'll see how this turns out.
 

0000

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I will nominate.
Waluigi
Dixie Kong
Klonoa
Sonic
Lil Mac
 

gothrax

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About this...since we don't know his name, but they exist, are the New Pikmin Captains eligible? Just a question...
Hmm now that i think about it that is a good question?
What about possible chars that have not yet come to pass?

:phone:
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Updated nominations counts.

Also updated the Fallcious Arguments That Are Not Allowed and FAQs section. Just wanted to remind people that if they want to, they can vote a character more than once.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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1. Saki
2. Dark Samus
3. King. K Rool
4. Palutena
5. Shulk

:phone:
 

Arcadenik

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I nominate:

1. Duck Hunt Dog
2. Toad
3. Dixie Kong
4. Tingle
5. Meowth
 

kisamefishfries

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Messages
285
Lloyd Irving
Paper Mario
Team Rocket- Pokemon Golbat, Raticate, Muk(debatable third spot)
Issac
Skull Kid
 

wildvine47

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I'd like to nominate Dark Samus, Medusa, Adam Malkovich, Starfy, and Samurai Goroh
 

Phaazoid

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Updated nominations counts.

Also updated the Fallcious Arguments That Are Not Allowed and FAQs section. Just wanted to remind people that if they want to, they can vote a character more than once.

wait, so I can vote for Ridley twice on the same day, or just use the rest of my votes for him? I'm going to add two more for ridley if that's possible. Sorry, the rules are a bit confusing.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
wait, so I can vote for Ridley twice on the same day, or just use the rest of my votes for him? I'm going to add two more for ridley if that's possible. Sorry, the rules are a bit confusing.
You can use up to five votes on any character that's eligible for voting as long as your five nominations for that day is only on that character. So sure, x3 for Ridley.
 

SSBCandidates

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Fine I will play.

Mega Man x2 (That means 2 votes for Mega Man, nothing to do with Mega Man x and his sequel to be clear).
Sophitia Alexandra x2
Henry Cooldown x1
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Wait I am confused too. I was under the idea the rules were like at GameFaqs.
When I played both versions of Rate Their Chances, I was always under the assumption that you could vote for a character more than once as long as you were within five nominations (or more if you won extra nominations due to being closest to predicting).

And yes, you are free to change your nominations until the first day is over. Just make sure you let us know so the results aren't skewed.
 

FlareHabanero

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I think the idea of voting for the same characters again might be a bad idea in the long run. Once seems to be good enough for the sake of fairness.
 
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