Another day, another war cycle. I guess COVID interest is waning so we're going to move on to something else. Though this one has been particularly suffocating that it managed to reach me even though I've been tuned out of the world thanks to being extremely busy these past few months. I've not seen this level of nationalistic furor, misinformation, and general ignorance leading people to furiously demand war in a region they know nothing about since the aftermath of 9/11. Time to put some context on geopolitics that amounts to more than Putin bad XD.
First lets address the crux of the issue that is Russian fears over Ukraine joining NATO. Or rather, the exceedingly obvious outcome that happens when a border state to a superpower attempts to join a military alliance that is hostile to it.
In 1997, a letter to then President Bill Clinton was written and signed by various individuals and experts including Robert McNamara (former Secretary of Defense under Presidents JFK and LBJ), Gary Hart (former US senator), and Bill Bradley (former US senator). You can read it from that link, but suffice to say it was warning against NATO expansion and the tensions it would cause.
Here's a Twitter thread featuring clips from renowned scholars Noam Chomsky and John Mearsheimer laying out the obvious of why Russia wouldn't want a hostile nation sharing a border with them, including making comparisons with a certain country that nearly waged war on Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis and follows something known as the Monroe Doctrine.
Here's Chomsky again detailing how there was an agreement between NATO and leader of the Soviet Union during its collapse that Nato would not expand any further. Of which it proceeded to violate when it invited various border states join shortly after. Also of great interest is how Europe is currently greatly dependent on Russian oil. Keep that in mind as it will come up later in my post.
In that thread are also others, including the current Director of the CIA William Burns, saying that NATO expansion is a bad idea that would provoke Russia.
Long thread with many different notable figures throughout history effectively saying that NATO expansion into Ukraine would lead into war with Russia.
As negotiations over the crisis in Ukraine begin in Geneva, tension is rising in the Ukrainian east after security forces killed three pro-Russian protesters...
www.youtube.com
And finally, here's renowned scholar on Russian relations Stephen Cohen going into a detailed overview on everything discussed.
So everyone and their mother was in agreement that war would break out in Ukraine if it tried to join NATO and that there was no reason for NATO's expansion, which would make them the aggressors and jeopardize their original goal of being a deterrent to war. Most have stopped short of saying it, but the implications of what they are saying are that NATO may no longer be necessary in the current era and may now be actively detrimental to peace and stability in the region.
That's a detailed overview of why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join NATO and why they would invade Ukraine over it, but what about NATO and Ukraine's reasons for this conflict?
What is NATO? In short, it is a defensive military alliance predicated on treating all attacks on member states as an attack on all of them. The goal was to provide a defensive coalition in Europe to deter aggression from the Soviet Union. How and why does one become a member?
www.nato.int
You can scroll down to Chapter 5 to see the details. So can Ukraine become a member? Well, that first rule of conforming to democracy is going to be tough given that the current government is the result of the
Maidan Coup.
Not to mention the whole settle territorial disputes peacefully, which has not been a thing for the last decade of their history.
And so far NATO has yet to allow Ukraine to join even despite various members (*cough US) inviting them to join. NATO themselves provide a
timeline of their dealings with Ukraine that seems to all but allow them to become a member. So it is rather odd that they seem to have such strong support for Ukraine, but hasn't allowed them to join even after decades of discussion related to it.
Perhaps it could have something to do with the fact that Ukraine seems to be looking to join so they can take advantage of NATO military power? And NATO, being obligated to join any war it's member states get into, wants to avoid a full-scale war with Russia, which everyone seems to agree would start World War 3 and end in mutual nuclear annihilation? I guess everyone kind of forgot that we weren't supposed to crave our own destruction.
So what is NATO's actual intentions in this conflict? They've been teasing a membership for Ukraine and never delivering while poking, prodding, and goading them into conflict with Russia. They don't want a direct war with Russia, but continue fanning the flames by providing weapons to countries like Ukraine to continue messing with them. It has become a bizarre situation where they do what they can to avoid a direct confrontation, but are still pretty sure they want to be aggressive? Does the phrase "**** or get off the pot" sound familiar to them? If they're not going to actually wage war, maybe stop all these half-assed proxy wars that do nothing but devastate the countries they're waged in?
And what of Ukraine? What is their intentions in joining NATO and further escalating conflict with Russia? I've been searching for rationale, but am turning up rather vague and incoherent reasoning.
The main one seems to be that joining NATO will somehow give them protection from Russia. But as has been illustrated already, joining NATO is the source of the conflict. You don't enter into a hostile military alliance to promote peace. You do that if you want to put a giant "Invade me" sign on your back. Not to mention that joining NATO means giving them clearance to use your country as a base of operations. If you don't think that the demonstrably aggressive NATO installing military bases in your country won't draw heat from Russia then just ask Cuba.
The other one seems to be a mix of maintaining "sovereignty" and "identity".
Sovereignty doesn't make much sense because Russia's official position is that Ukraine maintain neutrality. Not to mention entering into NATO is not conducive to maintaining sovereignty for what should be obvious reasons. You can argue that they are currently being invaded as a threat to their sovereignty, but this is only after the fact. It doesn't explain the rampant escalation and hard line stance that Ukraine has been trying to take with Russia over the last decade, believing that NATO will ultimately back them up.
I'm not saying that Russia are completely innocent actors or haven't done things to make Ukraine fear for their sovereignty, particularly the continuing territory disputes or the annexation of Crimea after the aforementioned Maidan Coup (very nuanced affair, but understandable from both sides). My point is that the current path doesn't lead to a productive outcome. Challenging a major power that will wipe the floor with you while NATO sits on the sidelines is not conducive to maintaining your sovereignty and actively threatening it.
Identity is a far more vague and murky reason. What "identity" does Ukraine possess?
Ukraine's demographics ultimately makeup a wide variety of various ethnic nationalities and languages stemming from all sorts of different eras with a sharp cultural divide between the EU sympathizing western Ukrainians and Russia supporting eastern Ukrainians. To try and assume a unified identity is a bit odd and is usually a hallmark of ignorance of the country (hint hint Westerners). But ignorant Westerners is one thing, what of the country itself?
Continuing from where left off from the Maidan Coup, Ukraine has going in a clear
fascist direction (Google how to use Inspect Element/an element blocker to get around the article's paywall popup). The "identity" it is currently trying to portray is an ahistorical one that attempts to rewrite history and erase minorities. Namely,
In 2015, the Ukrainian parliament
passed legislation making two WWII paramilitaries—the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA)—
heroes of Ukraine, and made it a criminal
offense to deny their heroism. The OUN had
collaborated with the Nazis and participated in the Holocaust, while the UPA slaughtered thousands of Jews and 70,000-100,000 Poles on their own volition.
leveraging the law to force certain interpretations of history,
The Holocaust revisionism is a multi-pronged
effort, ranging from government-funded
seminars,
brochures, and
board games, to the proliferation of
plaques,
statues, and
streets renamed after butchers of Jews, to far-right
children camps, where youth are inculcated with ultranationalist
ideology.
cultural and educational manipulation to push a particular interpretation of history,
“No state should be allowed to interfere in the writing of history.”—British historian Antony Beevor, after his award-winning book was banned in Ukraine, The Telegraph
, January 23, 2018
Ukraine’s State Committee for Television and Radio Broadcasting is enforcing the glorification of Ukraine’s new heroes by
banning “anti-Ukrainian” literature that goes against the government narrative. This ideological censorship includes acclaimed books by Western authors.
In January 2018, Ukraine made international headlines by banning
Stalingrad by award-winning British historian Antony Beevor because of a single
paragraph about a Ukrainian unit massacring 90 Jewish children during World War II. In December, Kiev
banned The Book Thieves by Swedish author
Anders Rydell (which, ironically, is
about the Nazis’ suppression of literature) because he
mentioned troops loyal to
Symon Petliura (an early 20th-century nationalist leader) had slaughtered Jews.
banning literature that contradicts false interpretations of history,
The post-Maidan government alarmed Russian-speaking Ukrainians by attempting to
annul that law. The US
State Department and Secretary of State John Kerry sought to assuage fears in 2014 by
pledging that Kiev would protect the status of Russian. Those promises came to naught.
A 2017 law
mandated that secondary education be conducted strictly in Ukrainian, which
infuriated Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. Several
regions passed legislation
banning the use of Russian in public life. Quotas enforce Ukrainian usage on
TV and
radio. (This would be akin to Washington forcing Spanish-language media to broadcast mostly in English.)
And in February 2018, Ukraine’s supreme court
struck down the 2012 regional language law—the one Kerry promised eastern Ukrainians would stay in effect.
Currently, Kiev is preparing to pass a
draconian law that would mandate the use of Ukrainian in most aspects of public life. It’s another example of Kiev alienating millions of its own citizens, while claiming to embrace Western values.
and abolition of language protection and subsequent restriction on languages other than Ukrainian that harms minorities. Among many other things.
This would certainly explain the sudden interest in "identity" that has sprung up. Namely, the desire to protect and enforce a falsely constructed one. I'm not sure I could personally get behind a war based on all of this, but needless to say that the outcome of fascism is often self-immolation in the defense of a completely made-up identity.
Now with all that context revealed, I think things are a little more nuanced than heroic underdog Ukraine with the overwhelming support of the stoic protectors in NATO fighting a valiant battle against Disney villain Putin. This isn't a justification of the Russian invasion, but an attempt to clarify the geopolitics involved. This whole thing could have been avoided had there been mature negotiations and a resolution with Ukraine remaining neutral with NATO and Russia halting using them as a political football.
Ultimately, regardless of what the justifications or rationales are, there is no outcome in a war with Russia that Ukraine isn't annihilated. Doesn't matter if it is their own solo war with tepid support from NATO or being on the frontline of a NATO-Russia conflict, there is no path where they aren't destroyed. That's a reality that's set in stone if they continue heading down that path. It will be Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya all over again, where the country is irreparably destroyed through years of constant war. The standing government may fall swiftly akin to Iraq, but all the Neo-Nazi paramilitary groups running around likely won't. Meaning that war isn't great for Russia either, if it doesn't want to end up exhausted from constant guerrilla warfare like the US has in the Middle East.
As an aside, I am absolutely appalled at the staggering amount of hypocrisy from the West. Imagine still being in multiple illegal wars in sovereign nations, after just getting off the embarrassment that was Afghanistan, and still believing you have some sort of moral leg to stand on. Not to get into an invasion competition, but at least cease your own illegal wars before trying to justify another proxy war (at the expense of another country) to stop someone else's illegal war.
Not to mention this call to patriotism over dealing with rising gas prices in an already trying economy. Have you ever stopped to consider why gas prices are rising due to war with Russia? Perhaps could it be because Russia is a major supplier of oil and natural gas to the world?
www.bloomberg.com
Probably the most amazing aspect of all of this that is never talked about is that Russia supplies almost half of NATO's energy. Said in another way, NATO funds Russia's war machine through Europe's dependence on Russia's exports, which make up a large chunk of Russia's economy. Said in yet another way, NATO sanctions on Russia means sanctioning itself almost as hard, ensuring MAD in a different way than ordinarily thought of. How did this amazing turn of events happen? Perhaps because non-renewable resources
run out eventually. It doesn't help that Europe is
decommissioning nuclear. And to compensate Germany is trying to build a pipeline known as Nord Stream 2 directly to Russia.
Which means that Europe is simultaneously demanding protection from the US while they are directly funding the country they supposedly need protection from. And the collapse of the Russian economy means the collapse of the European economy or at least heavy damage. Did I mention that most of the oil going to Europe
runs through Ukraine? Maybe that's why they want to build an alternative pipeline?
There's much more to be said on the ridiculous hypocrisy of Europe, but I'll let former US President Donald Trump take it for now:
This is all happening at the same time the IPCC has released their new climate change report. I haven't had time to read it, but I'm guessing it is inline with previous reports where the change is happening more rapidly than scientists predicted and our window to prevent the destruction of the climate and subsequently all organized life on Earth is ever shrinking.
I don't know why everyone is so fascinated with annihilation from nukes and WWIII when climate change exists. You would think the increasing disasters would clue people in for once, but not when we are distracted by a country with no strategic value on their path to self-immolation. Perhaps dying in the fires of nuclear war is more appealing to people than dying from baking to death due to our laziness in trying to do something about energy sustainability.
But you know one clever trick to avoiding the two biggest threats to humanity (climate change and nuclear war), solving Europe's (and Hawaii's) energy independence, achieving energy sustainability for every country in the world, crippling Russia's economy and thus the war machine, and ending all conflicts centered around oil (almost all conflicts period)?
Renewable and green energy. Specifically funding the production and installation of green infrastructure.
You know what the world is doing instead? Pouring most of its time, energy (lol), funds, resources, and attention into wars around fossil fuels that are depleting rapidly. Wars that are coincidentally a
major contributor to climate change.