Project Matchup: Unofficial P:M Matchup Chart

[Kneato]

With the release of 3.0 comes the end of the "demo" stage of Project M. Given that, now seems as good a time as any to start work on a community driven matchup chart which can be the basis of tier list placement come full release.

This is the current matchup chart based on discussion, "professional" level player input, and tournament results. It will be updated as characters are discussed, new releases happen, and as the meta changes.

(The question marks in the chart are placeholders for potential clone engine characters.)

Anecdotal evidence and speculation will hold some standing, but analysis from top level players along with tournament results will hold the most weight in deciding matchups. That said, if you place well in national tournaments, we would love to hear your opinions.

The floor is open for discussion.

 

[Hylian]

I really think waiting a little longer than 2-3 weeks after 3.0 releases would be helpful for a match-up chart. Most people probably haven't even played against a majority of the cast at a semi-high level much less know what they are talking about.

 

[Jolteon]

Toon Link loses to everyone.

 

[Kneato]

I really think waiting a little longer than 2-3 weeks after 3.0 releases would be helpful for a match-up chart. Most people probably haven't even played against a majority of the cast at a semi-high level much less know what they are talking about.

You probably know better than I do, but my reasoning is I've seen character matchups discussed in a ton of the character discussion boards with some top level players like Fly weighing in there. I wanted to conglomerate all the talk in those threads into one big one. I know this may be a little early, but I wanted to get the ball rolling so come Apex we have a basis

 

[Ultimate Sneeze]

I'll say that there is merit in saying that this is a bit early - there really isn't a way for even the entire community to successfully fill this chart out for a long while to come, but on the other hand, why not? If anything, it can spark some discussion that may or may not lead to research that may or may not lead to metagame development - and its not like anything is set in stone, either, it can all be changed.

What I will say is that any particularly strong discussion about a particular match-up/match-ups should be linked to in the OP so that people can quickly navigate in between discussions. Although that would require a lot of work and dedication on Kneato's part, I think it would be worth it in the long run.

 

[9bit]

Dedede is 100:0 against everyone

 

[Kneato]

Dedede is 100:0 against everyone

Fly, care to weigh in?

 

[NeonApophis]

Most people probably haven't even played against a majority of the cast at a semi-high level much less know what they are talking about.

I think this is definitely going to be the hardest part of making any sort of reasonably accurate matchup chart. There are just so many good characters in this game, and only a few high level players for each new character, so even good players will have trouble giving accurate analysis for more than the handful of characters that are being played in their area. For example, I really only know Lucas's matchups against the mostly unchanged Melee characters, MK, Dedede, Charizard, Ganondorf, and the Lucas ditto, even though I feel like AZ has a strong and active PM scene compared to most of the country (yesterday's biweekly had 27 people and PM is routinely the most popular event at tournaments with all three games). Maybe there's a PM haven somewhere that I haven't heard about, but it seems very unlikely that any state has high level players for even 20 characters, never mind all 41, making it very difficult to efficiently explore a wide range of matchups. National tournaments provide the opportunity to explore matchups by bringing lots of top players together, but given the infrequency of PM nationals and the limited number of games that each person can play in the time they are at the tournament, it will probably still take a really long time before we have a good understanding of most matchups.

All that being said, I think discussion could still be productive. It just has to be driven by videos of high level play and additional analysis from top players, and those high level players must be careful not to overextend their analysis into matchups in which they don't have very much experience, since PM characters often have a lot of useful tactics that have not yet been widely adopted.

 

[Tlock]

The legend needs to go in segments of 5. 50:50, 55:45, 60:40, 65:35, 70:30. In my head a match-up worse than 65:35 will not exist in this game anyway.

 

[Kneato]

The legend needs to go in segments of 5. 50:50, 55:45, 60:40, 65:35, 70:30. In my head a match-up worse than 65:35 will not exist in this game anyway.

In retrospect, I made it with brawl matchups in mind. You are probably right, with a team designing the game around balance, I doubt there is gonna be any Brawl Metaknight vs Ganon type matchups. Fixed the OP.

 

[QQQQQQQ7777777]

I have a feeling that most of the bottom tiers are going to be Brawl characters and characters that were bad in Melee, not because they`re bad now, but just because of under use.

 

[Kneato]

Many matchups remain unchanged or at least similar to their Melee counterparts. Those could be a good place to start. Or if anyone on this list from the "Top Players by Character Redux" thread would share their general insight on who their respective character fares well or poorly against.

Spoiler

Bowser - Kirk, Cmart, Gimpyfish
Captain Falcon - Hax$, Thumbswayup, Strawhat
Charizard - Metroid1117, Oracle, Yomi
Diddy Kong - AbstractLogic, Vro, Gurukid
Donkey Kong - Strong Bad, Eli
Falco - Mango, SFAT, MattDotZeb
Fox - Mew2King, SFAT, Silent Wolf
Game & Watch - Dakpo, Oracle, Meta
Ganondorf - Arty, Kage, LeeLue
Ice Climbers - Hylian
Ike - Metroid1117, Strong Bad, Ally
Ivysaur - TheReflexWonder, Denti, Vwins
Jigglypuff - Hungrybox
King Dedede - Fly Amanita, Heysuess, G-Regulate
Link - Hylian, Internet Explorer
Lucario - Fuzzyness, Eggz, Neon
Lucas - Oracle, Neon, Calabrel
Luigi - Vist, Eli
Mario - PikaChad, DJ Nintendo
Marth - Sethlon, Dr. PeePee, Taj
Meta Knight - DieSuperFly, Plup, Oro?!
Mewtwo - Taj, Mew2King
Ness - Awestin, SinisterB, Eli
Peach - VaNZ, Silly Kyle, Nintendude
Pikachu - Axe, Anther, ChuDat
Pit - Armada, Gallo, Mizuki
R.O.B - JCaesar, Bstuk
Roy - Sethlon, Mew2King
Sheik - Mew2King, Darkatma, Umbreon
Snake - Professor Pro, Rolex
Sonic - Nazo, SuperTH (Temp)
Squirtle - Bwett, Burnsy, Zwarm
Toon Link - OkamiBW, Aero, Jolteon
Wario - TheReflexWonder, Strong Bad, Ace
Wolf - Silent Wolf, Chillindude829, Scythe
Yoshi - V3ctorman, aMSa

Zelda - Zhime, Ryoko, Salem

Zero Suit Samus - Oro?!, VaNZ, Vidjogamer

 

[wiiztec]

This is the current matchup chart based on discussion, "professional" level player input, and tournament results.

What I'm getting from this is that all that factors up to conclude precisely jack squat, because the chart is completely blank.

 

[BJN39]

I definitely have to agree that the mid numbers such as 55:45, 65:35, etc. should be included. It's also a little early to have an actual MU chart, but a MU talk thread would be a nice idea, so that we can discuss any MUs we want.

 

[Vashimus]

For the record, this was not the first time we have done this. Our first matchup list was ****ing horrible.

Spoiler

Granted it wasn't done yet, but it was unanimously disagreed upon. Some of the matchups in here are just ridiculous. The Ganon:Fox matchup is apparently worse than Melee's! How the **** does that work?

If there's going to be a list everyone can agree on, there's going to have to be some exclusivity in who's actually contributing to this. Like, people who actually know what they're talking about. And yes, I can admit that does not include myself.

 

[zman804]

If there's going to be a list everyone can agree on, there's going to have to be some exclusivity in who's actually contributing to this. Like, people who actually know what they're talking about. And yes, I can admit that does not include myself.

I think the easiest way to do this si to make it so you don't have to give an opinion on the entire cast. Even If we assume people honestly t answer everything, there are somethings people just don't know.

 

[Strong Badam]

It'll be another year or so before a match-up chart is feasible.

 

[Brim]

It'll be another year or so before a match-up chart is feasible.

This. Stuff like this definitely takes time, especially in a game like Smash where tiers can change pretty quickly. I mean, you have to remember a lot of things don't always go the way the developers intend to, just with Street Fighter. I know - poor example, but the point is this stuff can change, and takes a while to figure out.

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

Does that match-up chart honestly have Fox-Wolf as 75:25?

...
...

Yeah, donkey crap.

 

[Kneato]

I realize that something like this "takes time" but even if we made a matchup chart a year from now, a year after that it could be completely changed. As the meta advances and people develop a deeper understanding of the characters, the chart will change no matter when it was started.

People are already discussing their preferred character's matchups in their own respective character boards. I'm simply suggesting also having those conversations here. That way, we have a starting point for a chart that can, and will, change over time.

Apex will most likely give us the clearest look we've yet had at matchups and can serve as a good prompt for speculation.

 

[Kneato]

I think the easiest way to do this si to make it so you don't have to give an opinion on the entire cast. Even If we assume people honestly t answer everything, there are somethings people just don't know.

...
If there's going to be a list everyone can agree on, there's going to have to be some exclusivity in who's actually contributing to this. Like, people who actually know what they're talking about. And yes, I can admit that does not include myself.

And yes, probably the best way to go about things is to an extent community discussion can be considered, but actual matchup decisions will depend largely on people who succeed with the characters in question at a competitive level.

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

You can start by filling out some of the well-known match-ups between mostly-ported melee characters.

Basically nC2 of {Fox, Falco, Marth, Shiek, Peach, Jiggity Jigg Jigg, Captain HYES, Ganon, perhaps even Pikachu}

Then slowly creep into familiar-er territory, like tossing in Samus, Link, before creeping out into more and more changed dudes - Mario, Mewtwo, YOSHI ...

Then move onto the more popular/developed Brawlers like Wolf, Ike, Lucas, Batman Meta Knight, etc.

 

[210stuna]

Many matchups remain unchanged or at least similar to their Melee counterparts. Those could be a good place to start. Or if anyone on this list from the "Top Players by Character Redux" thread would share their general insight on who their respective character fares well or poorly against.

Spoiler

Bowser - Kirk, Cmart, Gimpyfish
Captain Falcon - Hax$, Thumbswayup, Strawhat
Charizard - Metroid1117, Oracle, Yomi
Diddy Kong - AbstractLogic, Vro, Gurukid
Donkey Kong - Strong Bad, Eli
Falco - Mango, SFAT, MattDotZeb
Fox - Mew2King, SFAT, Silent Wolf
Game & Watch - Dakpo, Oracle, Meta
Ganondorf - Arty, Kage, LeeLue
Ice Climbers - Hylian
Ike - Metroid1117, Strong Bad, Ally
Ivysaur - TheReflexWonder, Denti, Vwins
Jigglypuff - Hungrybox
King Dedede - Fly Amanita, Heysuess, G-Regulate
Link - Hylian, Internet Explorer
Lucario - Fuzzyness, Eggz, Neon
Lucas - Oracle, Neon, Calabrel
Luigi - Vist, Eli
Mario - PikaChad, DJ Nintendo
Marth - Sethlon, Dr. PeePee, Taj
Meta Knight - DieSuperFly, Plup, Oro?!
Mewtwo - Taj, Mew2King
Ness - Awestin, SinisterB, Eli
Peach - VaNZ, Silly Kyle, Nintendude
Pikachu - Axe, Anther, ChuDat
Pit - Armada, Gallo, Mizuki
R.O.B - JCaesar, Bstuk
Roy - Sethlon, Mew2King
Sheik - Mew2King, Darkatma, Umbreon
Snake - Professor Pro, Rolex
Sonic - Nazo, SuperTH (Temp)
Squirtle - Bwett, Burnsy, Zwarm
Toon Link - OkamiBW, Aero, Jolteon
Wario - TheReflexWonder, Strong Bad, Ace
Wolf - Silent Wolf, Chillindude829, Scythe
Yoshi - V3ctorman, aMSa

Zelda - Zhime, Ryoko, Salem

Zero Suit Samus - Oro?!, VaNZ, Vidjogamer

Mew2king: Good with every character

 

[guedes the brawler]

starting with the top tiers in melee that didn't change much AND are used a lot seems like a good way to start this.

 

[Pwnz0rz Man]

Mew2king: Good with every character

Execpt the ones he's not good with.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

You can start by filling out some of the well-known match-ups between mostly-ported melee characters.

Basically nC2 of {Fox, Falco, Marth, Shiek, Peach, Jiggity Jigg Jigg, Captain HYES, Ganon, perhaps even Pikachu}

Then slowly creep into familiar-er territory, like tossing in Samus, Link, before creeping out into more and more changed dudes - Mario, Mewtwo, YOSHI ...

Then move onto the more popular/developed Brawlers like Wolf, Ike, Lucas, Batman Meta Knight, etc.

I agree here. Fill out the Fox/Falco's of the MU chart that and then move on to the later stuff. Easiest to start with what we know.

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

Fox/Falco: Even, 50:50 as always.
Fox/Marth: Even, 50:50

That's two.

I'm going to refer to the matchup chart here: http://www.ssbwiki.com/Character_matchup_(SSBM) and toss out some numbers since they use a different system.

Fox/Sheik: 55:45, I'm guessing. (doesn't seem 60:40 to me, but feel free to correct me here and beyond.)
Fox/Jiggs: 55:45. Jiggs' DACUS doesn't make a huge difference here, I think?
Fox/Falcon: 60:40, maybe 55:45 in P:M when you consider Counterpick Stages and the ability to grab the ledge off side-B. Scarjumping is also more feasible on more stages.
Fox/Pikachu: 60:40, I doubt QAC has changed the match-up much.
Fox/Ganon: 60:40 or worse, I will refrain on commenting. Also, Flame Choke is the most significant change here, so take that into account. Ganon also has a DACUS.
Fox/Peach: 55:45 or worse. Peach gained glide tossing, AGT, a DACUS and I think DJC, though float cancels are safer and she doesn't use them much (I believe.) Still don't think the match-up is even, but that's not for me to decide.
Doc doesn't exist, Samus onwards everyone has received massive changes. Onto Falco.

Falco/Sheik: 50:50
Falco/Marth: 50:50
Falco/Jiggs: 50:50
Falcoi/Peach: 50:50
That was easy. Anyone feel differently about these? I'll also allow that I may not be using a matchup chart that is accepted as consensus, but oh well. That's why we're here to discuss. On topic, though, I don't think any of these four received many significant things (mechanics or stage-wise) in P:M to swing the matchup drastically in their favor, even Peach with her new toys.
Falco/Falcon: 60:40, see Fox/Falcon notes.
Falco/Pikachu: 65:35, apparently. Anyone have any insights on this one?

So how about we start here. We can also do Marth, Shiek, Jiggs and Peach later and after we've accounted for P:M changes and counter-pick strategies, we can move onto the rest of the cast.

 

[guedes the brawler]

nice list, but how about we just focus on fox for now instead of doing 2 chars at one?

 

[Kneato]

Of the top 7 melee characters (fox through falcon) that have minimal to no changes, is safe to assume their matchups with eachother are identical to their melee matchups? If so, we would just need to decide a way to translate the melee matchup system (+1, +2, +3) into (+1, +2, +3, >= +4).

 

[Arcalyth]

Fox/Falco: Even, 50:50 as always.
Fox/Marth: Even, 50:50

That's two.

I'm going to refer to the matchup chart here: http://www.ssbwiki.com/Character_matchup_(SSBM) and toss out some numbers since they use a different system.

-snip-
So how about we start here. We can also do Marth, Shiek, Jiggs and Peach later and after we've accounted for P:M changes and counter-pick strategies, we can move onto the rest of the cast.

The reason posts like this are cancerous (with no insult meant to you directly, Lordling, as this happens frequently on the boards) is that absolutely no reasoning or data is put into the numbers. They're just numbers with no inherent meaning outside of some random board-goer's gut feeling.

If this project is meant to succeed in any way shape or form then every single person contributing needs to be responsible for backing up their claims with some amount of depth. That means frame data, strategy discussion, and actual tournament placing. Put some thought into it or this chart will be inherently worthless. Personally, I think it's better for the character boards to figure out their matchups before anything is consolidated. But that's just imo.

Fox/Ganon: 60:40 or worse, I will refrain on commenting. Also, Flame Choke is the most significant change here, so take that into account. Ganon also has a DACUS.

Shine not having invincibility and less effective laser camping alters this matchup quite a bit as well. More tech chase options and Fox not getting advantageous trades for free gives Ganon an easier time keeping Fox at bay and keeping him down.

 

[Iceman]

Of the top 7 melee characters (fox through falcon) that have minimal to no changes, is safe to assume their matchups with eachother are identical to their melee matchups? If so, we would just need to decide a way to translate the melee matchup system (+1, +2, +3) into (+1, +2, +3, >= +4).

We should probably just wait to make this list. We need a large amount of hard data before we can start thinking about the lists, unless we take this really slow and discuss a single matchup. Even the Melee matchups that have existed for years are now slightly different. Characters have small subtle tweaks, and these changes merit new matchup statistics. We can't use our guts or small amounts of data to conclude that the melee matchups are the same. If you wait for the Apex results, then we at least can do some constructive work. It will still take a a very long time before we have a respectable list. 6 months to year seems reasonable.

 

[Strong Badam]

I realize that something like this "takes time" but even if we made a matchup chart a year from now, a year after that it could be completely changed. As the meta advances and people develop a deeper understanding of the characters, the chart will change no matter when it was started.

People are already discussing their preferred character's matchups in their own respective character boards. I'm simply suggesting also having those conversations here. That way, we have a starting point for a chart that can, and will, change over time.

I mean, yeah, but there would be a huge difference between the accuracy of a matchup chart made now and one made a year from now, compared to one made a year from now to 2 years. Project M has just recently broken into mainstream tournament play and the full roster is available finally. We know very little about the new characters in terms of relative strength and character interaction right now, we'll be getting way more data from tournaments now than we had been before, more players will become established as top and high level, etc.. It's not that simple, there are tons of variables to consider other than just time. I'd like to personally set up a matchup chart project at some point, but now is not the time for it. Way too early.

 

[Nguz95]

I don't see what the problem is. Since everything is subject to change, organizing speculation into an MU spread is harmeless. If someone wants to go to the trouble to put their thoughts on paper, then I don't see why they shouldn't. If they're wrong, then they change it, big deal. I'm all for this project because it's flexible. None of this is set in stone, which is why I don't see what the problem is.

 

[Zujx]

If you plan on attempting this
you should head over to character discussion and read all the MU threads
I can imagine this taking a long time maybe someday I'll give it a shot but, i seriously doubt it

 

[TreK]

Of the top 7 melee characters (fox through falcon) that have minimal to no changes, is safe to assume their matchups with eachother are identical to their melee matchups? If so, we would just need to decide a way to translate the melee matchup system (+1, +2, +3) into (+1, +2, +3, >= +4).

It isn't safe, no. There are more than twice as many legal stages in PM, and a different counterpicking system, and this affects matchups a whole lot.

As for the second half of your post, we could also use the melee matchup system. We've been using it for brawl for the past couple years too, so everybody should be fine with it.

And finally, "is it too soon" ? Yup, it is. But it shouldn't stop us from attempting it. It is always going to be too soon, and the chart will become obsolete no matter what. We might as well just make it so it gets us to think about the game, and potentially be interesting in the future.

 

[Pika_thunder]

Where is shelda on your MU chart.

And you really can't say that shelda is unimportant because shelda is the BEST character in my personal opinion.

Just saying you should at least include what is obviously a top character.

 

[Absolome]

I'm all for having a matchup chart after Apex finishes this year, get an idea for what the Apex 2014 meta was so that people can look back at it and how it changes over time.

 

[DarkStarStorm]

Many matchups remain unchanged or at least similar to their Melee counterparts. Those could be a good place to start. Or if anyone on this list from the "Top Players by Character Redux" thread would share their general insight on who their respective character fares well or poorly against.

Spoiler

Bowser - Kirk, Cmart, Gimpyfish
Captain Falcon - Hax$, Thumbswayup, Strawhat
Charizard - Metroid1117, Oracle, Yomi
Diddy Kong - AbstractLogic, Vro, Gurukid
Donkey Kong - Strong Bad, Eli
Falco - Mango, SFAT, MattDotZeb
Fox - Mew2King, SFAT, Silent Wolf
Game & Watch - Dakpo, Oracle, Meta
Ganondorf - Arty, Kage, LeeLue
Ice Climbers - Hylian
Ike - Metroid1117, Strong Bad, Ally
Ivysaur - TheReflexWonder, Denti, Vwins
Jigglypuff - Hungrybox
King Dedede - Fly Amanita, Heysuess, G-Regulate
Link - Hylian, Internet Explorer
Lucario - Fuzzyness, Eggz, Neon
Lucas - Oracle, Neon, Calabrel
Luigi - Vist, Eli
Mario - PikaChad, DJ Nintendo
Marth - Sethlon, Dr. PeePee, Taj
Meta Knight - DieSuperFly, Plup, Oro?!
Mewtwo - Taj, Mew2King
Ness - Awestin, SinisterB, Eli
Peach - VaNZ, Silly Kyle, Nintendude
Pikachu - Axe, Anther, ChuDat
Pit - Armada, Gallo, Mizuki
R.O.B - JCaesar, Bstuk
Roy - Sethlon, Mew2King
Sheik - Mew2King, Darkatma, Umbreon
Snake - Professor Pro, Rolex
Sonic - Nazo, SuperTH (Temp)
Squirtle - Bwett, Burnsy, Zwarm
Toon Link - OkamiBW, Aero, Jolteon
Wario - TheReflexWonder, Strong Bad, Ace
Wolf - Silent Wolf, Chillindude829, Scythe
Yoshi - V3ctorman, aMSa

Zelda - Zhime, Ryoko, Salem

Zero Suit Samus - Oro?!, VaNZ, Vidjogamer

For Falcon you forgot Darkrain
Roy your forgot Neo
Mario you forgot M2K

Everyone else seems good, though.
I'm not calling you out, I'm just trying to help.

 

[Kayo]

You can have your fancy "match up charts" but whatever character wins Apex is broken. It's a smash game. Smash and broken charecters are synonymous. Calling it now. We can't have good things.


in4 fox wins

 

[9bit]

inb4 fox ddd wins apex