"We hypothesize from the data given to us (moveset analysis, theorycraft, AT's, MU's) and tournament results, imo, are not or should not be a part of that data."
Tourney results are necessary because they give us an idea of how effective those data (moveset analysis, theorycraft, AT's, MU's) are when placed in tournament conditions, their relative significance and also represent data which we can't measure and analyse (mindgames, consistency, reading, etc). Tier lists are meant to give an idea of how good each character is in tourney situations. How good a character is depends on how we can play them (metagame). Mindgames, consistency, reading etc cannot be accurately measured without seeing how we play, thus tournaments are necessary.
"because a tier list ... is exactly what I said it was before: A ranking of the characters in the game that predicts how well they will do in tournies..."
Anyone would be a fool to predict how well a character would do in tournaments without looking at their previous performance in tournaments. That's like trying to predict how Michael Phelps would do in the next olympic games without at all considering the fact that he has won 16 medals in 2 Olympic venues, 14 of which were gold. Most people hadn't even heard of him until the Beijing olympics, so their predictions would be MUCH different from those that had.Why is it so important to consider performance record? TRENDS! Good characters will do well more often, bad characters will perform poorly more often. Of course, there are exceptions, BUT THERE IS STILL A STRONG TRENDLINE. And (of course) it's reasonable to say that Phelps will do well in his next Olympic games.
I did not say the tier list was based solely on tournament results, but they do play a large part. Outlier tournaments exist, and I'm sure the BBR is aware of them, so they definitely do not base the tier list ONLY on tournaments.
It wouldn't make sense for a tier list to be based on the "highest possible level of human play" given a current metagame, because even with complete knowledge of the current metagame you cannot measure the highest possible level of human play. Human play involves the immeasurable aspects I mentioned before, as well as creativity. You cannot measure creativity.