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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Noipoi

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Man, we haven't had a direct in a long time.

When will the silence be broken?
When they announce the next console.

There haven’t been any full-sized directs and once June hits there’s pretty much no games for the rest of the year. They have to announce something soon, and I think it’ll coincide with the next system.

Even if it comes out next year, just knowing a lot of games are coming would be nice.
 

Pupp135

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The amount of newcomers we get in a brand new Smash game’s base roster is going to come down to how many veterans return. How many characters do you think would be cut? How many of those cut characters had completely unique movesets?
Best case scenario, I think it would only be 20 cuts, but I feel like we’ll have 25-35 cuts as I don’t imagine the developers wanting to have a fighter count smaller than SSBFor, but Ultimate was a huge undertaking. In terms of unique fighters, I’d say 15-30 depending on how we count clones and echoes.

This hasn’t been brought up much, but I’m curious how they’ll approach secret fighters going forward as they heavily leaned into it for Ultimate, but there were only a few of them in the Wii U version.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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This hasn’t been brought up much, but I’m curious how they’ll approach secret fighters going forward as they heavily leaned it for Ultimate, but there were only a few of them in the Wii U version.
There's a non-zero chance of them doing what nearly every other fighting game of the past few years did and just ditch the concept of secret fighters entirely.
 
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BritishGuy54

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This hasn’t been brought up much, but I’m curious how they’ll approach secret fighters going forward as they heavily leaned it for Ultimate, but there were only a few of them in the Wii U version.
I think they’ll stick around, especially if we get a big adventure mode. I could see some historically secret characters like Luigi not being secrets next time.
 

Perkilator

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Best case scenario, I think it would only be 20 cuts, but I feel like we’ll have 25-35 cuts as I don’t imagine the developers wanting to have a fighter count smaller than SSBFor, but Ultimate was a huge undertaking. In terms of unique fighters, I’d say 15-30 depending on how we count clones and echoes.
If at most there were 30 cuts, who do you think they would be? And how many newcomers would be a feasible amount to compensate?
 

Louie G.

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And how many newcomers would be a feasible amount to compensate?
If we lost 30 unique characters, we would have 52 returning veterans. And then if we added a standard amount of newcomers to that lineup, let's say 15 brand new unique fighters, we would have a comparable number of characters to Ultimate at launch. 67 characters, so two short. Maybe we could get a couple more thrown in there to bring us somewhere close to the number of new characters added in Brawl.

So I don't think we'd need to overcompensate for it, 30 characters actually strikes me as a very practical range for cuts with this in mind. If base Ultimate is, according to Sakurai, about the full extent of what is achievable at launch then I think the number might continue to stagnate somewhere around the sub-70 range and work its way back up through DLC. Similar trajectory to Ultimate, just with different priorities.
 
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Pupp135

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It‘s nice to see opinions on unlockable fighters, and I feel like there will probably only be a few secret fighters, and I assume the majority of newcomers would be starter characters like in Brawl and For. My best guess would be that it would be like For 3DS in terms of secret fighters where Luigi, Marth, and Lucario are starters but not Ganondorf, Mr. Game & Watch, and Jigglypuff (assuming that it returns).

If at most there were 30 cuts, who do you think they would be? And how many newcomers would be a feasible amount to compensate?
I assume that most of the veterans who would be cut would probably be from the third tier and below on my priority list that I have, but this isn’t definitive as something like Pokemon Trainer or Ike/Robin could fall through the cracks while someone else like R.O.B. or Aegis returns.

In terms of newcomers, I assume that we’ll have 10 unique ones and a couple clones.

Priority List (these are unordered)
I Can’t See Them Ever Leaving
:ultmario::ultluigi::ultbowser::ultpeach::ultdk::ultlink::ultzelda::ultsamus::ultyoshi::ultkirby:
:ultfox::ultpikachu::ultfalcon::ultmarth::ultpit::ultvillager::ultmiifighters::ultshulk::ultinkling::ultsonic:

Will Only Be Cut if Resources Are Really Tight
:ultdiddy::ultganondorf::ultridley::ultmetaknight::ultkingdedede::ultpokemontrainer::ultlucario::ultness::ultike::ultrobin:
:ultgnw::ultwario::ultolimar::ultisabelle::ultmegaman::ultpacman::ultryu::ultbayonetta:

They’re Not First on the Chopping Block, But I Wouldn’t be Shocked If They Miss the Boat
:ultrosalina::ultbowserjr::ultkrool::ultsheik::ulttoonlink::ultzss::ultfalco::ultjigglypuff::ultmewtwo::ultgreninja:
:ultbyleth::ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultmythra::ultduckhunt::ultbanjokazooie::ultsteve:

I Have No Clue What to Make of Them
:ultsnake::ultcloud::ultsimon::ultjoker::ulthero2::ult_terry::ultsephiroth::ultkazuya::ultsora:

Probably First on the Chopping Block
:ultdoc::ultpiranha::ultyounglink::ultwolf::ultincineroar::ultpichu::ultlucas::ultroy::ultcorrin::ultpalutena::ultminmin
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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It‘s nice to see opinions on unlockable fighters, and I feel like there will probably only be a few secret fighters, and I assume the majority of newcomers would be starter characters like in Brawl and For. My best guess would be that it would be like For 3DS in terms of secret fighters where Luigi, Marth, and Lucario are starters but not Ganondorf, Mr. Game & Watch, and Jigglypuff (assuming that it returns).



I assume that most of the veterans who would be cut would probably be from the third tier and below on my priority list that I have, but this isn’t definitive as something like Pokemon Trainer or Ike/Robin could fall through the cracks while someone else like R.O.B. or Aegis returns.

In terms of newcomers, I assume that we’ll have 10 unique ones and a couple clones.

Priority List (these are unordered)
I Can’t See Them Ever Leaving
:ultmario::ultluigi::ultbowser::ultpeach::ultdk::ultlink::ultzelda::ultsamus::ultyoshi::ultkirby:
:ultfox::ultpikachu::ultfalcon::ultmarth::ultpit::ultvillager::ultmiifighters::ultshulk::ultinkling::ultsonic:

Will Only Be Cut if Resources Are Really Tight
:ultdiddy::ultganondorf::ultridley::ultmetaknight::ultkingdedede::ultpokemontrainer::ultlucario::ultness::ultike::ultrobin:
:ultgnw::ultwario::ultolimar::ultisabelle::ultmegaman::ultpacman::ultryu::ultbayonetta:

They’re Not First on the Chopping Block, But I Wouldn’t be Shocked If They Miss the Boat
:ultrosalina::ultbowserjr::ultkrool::ultsheik::ulttoonlink::ultzss::ultfalco::ultjigglypuff::ultmewtwo::ultgreninja:
:ultbyleth::ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultmythra::ultduckhunt::ultbanjokazooie::ultsteve:

I Have No Clue What to Make of Them
:ultsnake::ultcloud::ultsimon::ultjoker::ulthero2::ult_terry::ultsephiroth::ultkazuya::ultsora:

Probably First on the Chopping Block
:ultdoc::ultpiranha::ultyounglink::ultwolf::ultincineroar::ultpichu::ultlucas::ultroy::ultcorrin::ultpalutena::ultminmin
Miis should be their own tier in your thing because they're absolutely getting kicked out if Switch 2 doesn't have a Mii maker.

I don't expect that to be a thing but you never know with Nintendo.
 
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Garteam

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I think the identity of the newcomers matters a lot more than the number of them.

I think 10 newcomers who primarily consist of big names that people have been requesting for a while and major names in gaming that people didn't see coming would go over a lot better than 15 newcomers that are added primarily for the sake of representing late Switch releases.
 
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TheQuester

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If we lost 30 unique characters, we would have 52 returning veterans. And then if we added a standard amount of newcomers to that lineup, let's say 15 brand new unique fighters, we would have a comparable number of characters to Ultimate at launch. 67 characters, so two short. Maybe we could get a couple more thrown in there to bring us somewhere close to the number of new characters added in Brawl.

So I don't think we'd need to overcompensate for it, 30 characters actually strikes me as a very practical range for cuts with this in mind. If base Ultimate is, according to Sakurai, about the full extent of what is achievable at launch then I think the number might continue to stagnate somewhere around the sub-70 range and work its way back up through DLC. Similar trajectory to Ultimate, just with different priorities.
I feel like cuting 30 unique characters is too much, the game will be hated on with that many cuts, i'm sure Nintendo and Sakurai wants to soften the blow of the possible cut characters, they're not going to cut that many characters at all, it would be a disasters.
I think we'll lose like 7-8 characters: Piranha Plant, Corrin, Incineroar, Bowser Jr, Wii Fit Trainer, Young Link, Duck Hunt, Pichu and Roy begin my guesses.
 

Louie G.

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Miis should be their own tier in your thing because they're absolutely getting kicked out if Switch 2 doesn't have Miis.

I don't expect that to be a thing but you never know with Nintendo.
I truly think Smash would sooner implement their own Mii Maker before they cut Miis. Unless Nintendo introduces a different kind of avatar, they are Smash's vessel for customizable characters and have essentially made themselves into a way for Smash to cross over with series they wouldn't have had the resources to otherwise while also making them a lot of extra cash - which I personally doubt character specific costumes would make back the same way.

Switch 2 will definitely have Miis though. The console is 99.9% likely to be cross compatible and there are Switch games that still utilize Miis. Maybe we could see them get totally phased out once we're past anything Switch-related but it would feel like an oversight to lose Mii compatibility with something like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe or Smash Ultimate, some of the most popular games on the previous console so I'm certain they won't be an afterthought.

I feel like cuting 30 unique characters is too much, the game will be hated on with that many cuts, i'm sure Nintendo and Sakurai wants to soften the blow of the possible cut characters, they're not going to cut that many characters at all, it would be a disasters.
Clinging onto this mindset is IMO unrealistic and only setting yourself up for disappointment. I'll very happily be wrong if the cuts end up being sparse, but "cutting characters will make people sad" is not a good excuse for why it shouldn't happen. I'm sure they will try to avoid scaling down as much as they feasibly can but expecting an 80 character roster at launch is, as far as we've been told, not reasonable.
 
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SpecterFlower

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i want unlockable characters gone
its so annoying going to a friends place to play and they have not everyone, therefore I always have to bring mine around instead.

for a game like smash unlockable fighters have no place.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I feel like cuting 30 unique characters is too much, the game will be hated on with that many cuts, i'm sure Nintendo and Sakurai wants to soften the blow of the possible cut characters, they're not going to cut that many characters at all, it would be a disasters.
That's about as many cuts Street Fighter 6 had and the previous game had less than half of Ultimate's roster. And the exact same thing happened when transitioning from 4 to 5 as well.

You don't see people thinking the series is dead for it. As long as what's left has enough of the mainstays and fan favorites and that the list of newcomers adds more to that pile, the roster will be generally liked by most.

I think we'll lose like 7-8 characters: Piranha Plant, Corrin, Incineroar, Bowser Jr, Wii Fit Trainer, Young Link, Duck Hunt, Pichu and Roy begin my guesses.
There's often a general consensus of which characters can make pulling "EVERYONE IS HERE!" a legal nightmare. Among your guesses, NONE of them are any of these characters...

If you're gonna go ahead and say every third-party character stays, including the notoriously stingy Square Enix and the notoriously ****ty Konami, on top of every other company that they had to negotiate with including ****ing Disney... why even bother cutting anyone? At that point you're just sounding like a Corrin hater.
 
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fogbadge

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i want unlockable characters gone
its so annoying going to a friends place to play and they have not everyone, therefore I always have to bring mine around instead.

for a game like smash unlockable fighters have no place.
sounds a little overly dramatic to me. I mean haven’t you solved the problem already?
 
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Perkilator

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I think the identity of the newcomers matters a lot more than the number of them.

I think 10 newcomers who primarily consist of big names that people have been requesting for a while and major names in gaming that people didn't see coming would go over a lot better than 15 newcomers that are added primarily for the sake of representing late Switch releases.
Actually, this made me think of something; I know that the following characters are major recurring requests left hanging:
  • Waluigi
  • Toad
  • Geno
  • Dixie Kong
  • Bandana Waddle Dee
  • Krystal
  • A Sonic newcomer
  • Octoling
Who else am I missing?
 

Louie G.

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Well, the Sportsmates already exists.
I seen on Famiboards post about an hypothetical Tomodachi Life game with them.
I'm not convinced until we see more of that, as of now they're just in one game and have not extended further. I can't imagine a new Tomodachi Life featuring the Switch Sports avatars would go over very well, given the response to those characters being lukewarm to begin with and their game still including Miis as a playable option. I don't think they are a realistic replacement and they don't seem popular enough to start making more games around.

Guess the bottom line here is that I'll believe it when I see it. I think people more or less made their voices heard on this one.
 

pitchfulprocessing

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A random thing is that I was looking at Japanese Smash videos/articles recently cause Youtube's auto-translation captions have gotten good enough for me to generally understand what's being said without manually translating everything.
This channel makes a lot of good well-produced Smash videos, but in this one that came out very recently he suggests Sakuna from Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin as a newcomer, and I thought that was an interesting pick I hadn't seen before. Sakuna as a game sold really well for a new IP in a niche market, well enough that it's getting a whole anime soon. I tried the game out from curiosity after seeing the video, and it's really good and has a great unique aesthetic, and is one of those cases where the combat system is basically a perfect fit for Smash in how directional inputs are mapped for attacks.
The combat system is a full combo heavy beat-em-up, with Sakuna having access to tons of different weaponry she can freely switch between, and it mostly being stuff I don't think many other characters could use like sickles, hoes, sledgehammers, fans, irons, nutcrackers, etc. And then on top of that she has a whole list of magic spells to fill out special moves, ranging from special elemental attacks to debuffs to grapples. After trying the game out she really stood out as being a great fit both moveset and content wise, the aesthetic is so unique I could see even just the rice field looking stunning as a stage. I don't think it's at all likely, it'd definitely be a very Jibanyan style pick, but I thought it was interesting and it wasn't a character I had seen brought up before as a serious option, so cool to discuss. Push comes to shove she could attract the JJK fans.

On the current topic, if the next game is a full new entry, then I'd expect a Smash 4 sized roster. It's difficult to get around cutting that many characters, but I think if the set of newcomers had some really big names thrown in it could help balance that out. I think it's relevant because there's really no way a next Smash game will sell as well as Ultimate no matter what it does.
 
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ScrubReborn

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This hasn’t been brought up much, but I’m curious how they’ll approach secret fighters going forward as they heavily leaned into it for Ultimate, but there were only a few of them in the Wii U version.
I like unlockable characters, exploring the game and finding secret characters have always been some of my fondest memories. I can't say I like how the past two games handled it though.

Smash 4's unlockables were too effortless. I unlocked everyone there in a day (except Duck Hunt, but I unlocked him the next morning). At that level of effort, there's no reason to even have unlockables, that half-and-half approach is the worst of both worlds. Meanwhile, Ultimate went too far in the other direction. I get it was meant to be a cool reference to how much the roster's grown since then but man, having to unlock almost 90% of a 72 character roster is ludicrous even with their attempts to streamline it. Especially if you need to do it a second time 'cause you lost your first copy or whatever. That was enough to change my mind on how Ultimate handled it.

I expect (and hope) that Smash 6 will be closer to the Melee-Brawl scale of unlocks, and we'll return to individualized unlock conditions. Prolly less unlockables relative to their roster sizes, but not to Smash 4 "what's even the point?" levels. Ultimate's unlockables were only done to flex the size of the cast and that loses any luster it might have had when Smash 6 is probably not gonna have a Ult-sized roster. And I'm sure the team's aware of the criticisms of both Smash 4 and Ultimate's methods of handling unlocks. 43% of Melee's cast was unlockable and 35% of Brawl's so maybe this new game will have 30-33%?

(If nothing else though, there should be some way to transfer your unlockable character save data through game copies (like SD card or something) so you don't need to reunlock the cast every time you need to replace your game or go to a friend's house. I completely agree with that critique of the unlock system, it sucks when your friend dosen't have your main)
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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I think Mii's are simply too useful and practical for a number of different Nintendo IP's (let alone potential future ones) for them to ever entirely get rid of. Minimized sure, but they're a concept that casual audiences like and hardcore audiences don't really mind, so it seems sensible to keep them.
 

TheQuester

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If you're gonna go ahead and say every third-party character stays, including the notoriously stingy Square Enix and the notoriously ****ty Konami, on top of every other company that they had to negotiate with including ****ing Disney... why even bother cutting anyone? At that point you're just sounding like a Corrin hater.
What does even this mean lol.
I also think we're getting Ultimate Deluxe not a Smash 6, but im asuming a Smash 6 would be built up from the ground up mostly like Smash 4 or Brawl, if it does happen, so there will be some unique cuts.
So for me the cuts would be for low priority characters mostly and that applies to Corrin, none of the 3rd parties seem low priority for me, also, Smash Bros is beneficial for the companies, do you really think Square will be like "nope, not cloud or sephiroth for you, even though we released a FF7R part recently"?
 
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Noipoi

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Unlockable characters are great. If you started the game with everyone available from the jump I feel like you’d lose a bit of that mysticism.

With Nintendo Directs and the internet and everything it’s never gonna be like when you were a kid, when you genuinely had no clue who was in the game and every unlock was a surprise. But I still get a little of that feeling when I’m just doing some matches and then suddenly-

IMG_8706.jpeg
 

TheQuester

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So why argue that they'd even cut anyone at all? Everyone is here means EVERYONE, not "Everyone who doesn't suck is here".
Bruh.
I was saying that i'm thinking we're getting a Ultimate Deluxe, but in the case we get a Smash 6, i'm expecting a few unique cuts, just not million of them, and that i believe Corrin would be considered a low priority character, but acording to your friend im a hater, even though i enjoy Fates.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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but acording to your friend im a hater, even though i enjoy Fates.
Yeah. I never said that, only that having almost everyone barring a few first parties while keeping every third-party and thus forcing Sakurai to go through the mountain of legal hassles and negotiations with other companies that may or may not be down to have their character back made you sound like a hater.

At that point you're just sounding like a Corrin hater.
See?

My point is there's really no reason to cut anyone (other than time constraints, at least) if you keep all the big legal hurdles.

Good on you for enjoying Fates though.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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In the history of the franchise, we've only ever had two franchises cut.

One was Ice Climber. We know that the Ice Climbers were supposed to appear in Smash 4 but couldn't due to technical difficulties. They weren't supposed to be cut.

The other was Metal Gear. We don't know why it was cut, but third party legal troubles are likely the reason. We have no reason to believe Snake was intended to be included in Smash 4.

An easy conclusion to take from this is that Sakurai doesn't intend to cut first party franchises. Once they're in, they're in. The far majority of first party IPs included in Smash don't have characters. So the franchises with characters can be seen as essential, either from obvious marketing merits or historical significance. They're special in some way.

So I have to ask, why do people think we're going to lose first party franchises like the retros, Punch Out!!, Wii Fit or ARMS? Sure these franchises aren't as notable as they once were and they aren't a part of Smash's identity like Earthbound or F-Zero. But we don't have precedence that entire first party franchises will be cut out.

We do have precedence for third party franchises being cut. And we do have precedence for supporting cast members of already represented franchises being cut.

But why do people consistently suggest cutting these guys?

:ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultduckhunt::ultminmin
 

pitchfulprocessing

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I've said this before but I think an understated part of what would influce any hypothetical cuts is just playtime and how much a character is used. Since Smash 4, the dev team would have actual data on how much each character is played and the factors that influence it as patches are applied. That's something we don't have access to other than knowing Cloud was the most played early on in Ultimate. I don't think it'd be the sole reason, but I feel like that would be a notable influence in deciding priority.
 

Guynamednelson

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I've said this before but I think an understated part of what would influce any hypothetical cuts is just playtime and how much a character is used. Since Smash 4, the dev team would have actual data on how much each character is played and the factors that influence it as patches are applied. That's something we don't have access to other than knowing Cloud was the most played early on in Ultimate. I don't think it'd be the sole reason, but I feel like that would be a notable influence in deciding priority.
That's why I think Young Link might come back, despite doubting the next Smash will be Ultimate Deluxe. I've seen way more Youngs than Toons.
 

SpecterFlower

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sounds a little overly dramatic to me. I mean haven’t you solved the problem already?
No.

There’s still new sccounts.

I’d rather just be able to get into the fighting anyway.
QOL update, I don’t need to grind
8 Hours to play my main.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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But why do people consistently suggest cutting these guys?

:ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultduckhunt::ultminmin
Let me take some (non-serious) guesses.

:ulticeclimbers: Either Melee/Brawl PTSD or taking their cut in Smash 4 without context by saying "they cut them they can do it again."
:ultrob: Gyro PTSD
:ultwiifittrainer: My guess is to replace her with the Ring Fit Trainee since both are from exercise-focused IPs. Also the Wii's old.
:ultlittlemac: People like having aerials
:ultduckhunt: If someone played the game, PTSD from that goddamn laugh. If not, then it's because Banjo and Kazooie is totally the same character :V
:ultminmin PTSD for her entire moveset. Also, "ARMS is totally a dead game" despite it meeting sales numbers that are unrivaled for most of the fighting genre outside of the super mainstream ones like MK, SF and Tekken
 
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SpecterFlower

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In the history of the franchise, we've only ever had two franchises cut.

One was Ice Climber. We know that the Ice Climbers were supposed to appear in Smash 4 but couldn't due to technical difficulties. They weren't supposed to be cut.

The other was Metal Gear. We don't know why it was cut, but third party legal troubles are likely the reason. We have no reason to believe Snake was intended to be included in Smash 4.

An easy conclusion to take from this is that Sakurai doesn't intend to cut first party franchises. Once they're in, they're in. The far majority of first party IPs included in Smash don't have characters. So the franchises with characters can be seen as essential, either from obvious marketing merits or historical significance. They're special in some way.

So I have to ask, why do people think we're going to lose first party franchises like the retros, Punch Out!!, Wii Fit or ARMS? Sure these franchises aren't as notable as they once were and they aren't a part of Smash's identity like Earthbound or F-Zero. But we don't have precedence that entire first party franchises will be cut out.

We do have precedence for third party franchises being cut. And we do have precedence for supporting cast members of already represented franchises being cut.

But why do people consistently suggest cutting these guys?

:ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultduckhunt::ultminmin
Precedence doesn’t mean much when smash has never had a history of cutting much.

each game had more and more.
the next smash game will be the first time we will get a smaller roster than the previous smash game.




unlike other fighting game which hard reboot the roster every new addition and have updated version or dlc to add more
 

LiveStudioAudience

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I think it's entirely possible that Nintendo and/or Sakurai have enough of a relationship with third parties at this point that even if a non-Nintendo character gets cut that another fighter from that same company (or at least parent company) will be in in their place. There's a lot to be gained by both sides to keep up such a business deal vis a vis Smash, and at worst, even if a Terry was cut, I could still see SNK elements in the next entry in some fashion.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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Precedence doesn’t mean much when smash has never had a history of cutting much.

each game had more and more.
the next smash game will be the first time we will get a smaller roster than the previous smash game.




unlike other fighting game which hard reboot the roster every new addition and have updated version or dlc to add more
I agree the next Smash will be smaller.

But I'm a firm believer that bloated franchises and third party franchises will be significantly more likely to have cuts than sole representatives of first party franchises.
 

Garteam

Smash Master
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Garteam
Here's an interesting breakdown regarding which software has the highest Monthly Active Users across the various consoles + PCs:


Here're my big take-aways:
1. Fortnite, Call of Duty, and GTA V continue to be incredibly popular.
2. Ultimate is still a very relevant game, despite being 5 years old.
3. Age is just a number in the modern gaming industry. A lot of players will stick with old, highly established software over newer titles.

In terms of Smash, I think this also has two big implications:
1. We shouldn't take people moving to a new Smash from Ultimate for granted just because it's a newer game. There's a solid chance that a lot of people will stick with Ultimate if they think the next Smash is inferior. This is especially possible given all of the rumours regarding backwards compatibility with Nintendo's next piece of hardware.
2. If a third party is selected as a "WTF THEY GOT THEM IN THE GAME" pick like Sonic, Cloud, and Steve, Jonesy, Captain Pryce, and Michael/Franklin/Trevor may be worth serious consideration.
 

TheQuester

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 16, 2023
Messages
300
In the history of the franchise, we've only ever had two franchises cut.

One was Ice Climber. We know that the Ice Climbers were supposed to appear in Smash 4 but couldn't due to technical difficulties. They weren't supposed to be cut.

The other was Metal Gear. We don't know why it was cut, but third party legal troubles are likely the reason. We have no reason to believe Snake was intended to be included in Smash 4.

An easy conclusion to take from this is that Sakurai doesn't intend to cut first party franchises. Once they're in, they're in. The far majority of first party IPs included in Smash don't have characters. So the franchises with characters can be seen as essential, either from obvious marketing merits or historical significance. They're special in some way.

So I have to ask, why do people think we're going to lose first party franchises like the retros, Punch Out!!, Wii Fit or ARMS? Sure these franchises aren't as notable as they once were and they aren't a part of Smash's identity like Earthbound or F-Zero. But we don't have precedence that entire first party franchises will be cut out.

We do have precedence for third party franchises being cut. And we do have precedence for supporting cast members of already represented franchises being cut.

But why do people consistently suggest cutting these guys?

:ulticeclimbers::ultrob::ultwiifittrainer::ultlittlemac::ultduckhunt::ultminmin
Because it's possible Wii Fit and ARMS could go if theres around or even over 10 cuts that include unique characters. I have no idea why this fanbase is obsessed with paterns, just because they haven't done x thing doesn't mean they ever won't unless it's explicity stated like no anime characters.
Unless Sakurai has explicity stated 1stparty franchises already aded can't get cut, then it's definitely possible they could go, like do you really think Nintendo will cut let's say a fan-favourite like Ike or Sakurai will cut Palutena instead Min Min or Wii Fit Trainer if they have to pick? most likely not.
 
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