New Mario Matchup Thread!

[Xandercosm]

NEW MARIO MATCHUP THREAD!

I decided to make a new, better looking, easier to read matchup thread since the old one is semi-dead and a mess. There are a lot of MUs that we were still on the fence about and never got around to re-discussing. Hopefully we can pick up where we left off and discuss a lot of the characters over again so we can revise their MUs with Mario.

For the time being, I just kept the MU data that was listed on the old thread so that we can work from there. In time, we can get all the MUs perfectly straightened out and this will become an even more solid resource for learning more about Mario. Eventually, I hope to even add descriptions of certain MUs (maybe as we discuss them, I can add peoples' thoughts and such). Anyway, I thought this would be a good way to refresh the project.

Legend:

100:0 - Mario completely wins
90:10 - Mario almost completely wins
80:20 - Mario wins by a huge amount
70:30 - Mario wins by a big amount
60:40 - Mario has a noticeable advantage
55:45 - Mario has a slight advantage
50:50 - Mario goes even
45:65 - Mario has a slight disadvantage
40:60 - Mario has a noticeable disadvantage
30:70 - Mario loses by a big amount
20:80 - Mario loses by a huge amount
10:90 - Mario almost completely loses
0:100 - Mario completely loses​

Spoiler: List of Matchups (Characters are listed alphabetically)

TBD
55:45
55:45
55:45
55:45
TBD
TBD
65:35
50:50
55:45
45:55
50:50
55:45
50:50
50:50
50:50
50:50
55:45
60:40
60:40
55:45
50:50
60:40
55:45
50:50
45:55
50:50
45:55
60:40
50:50
50:50
45:55
50:50
60:40
60:40
55:45
50:50
50:50
50:50
60:40
65:35
45:55
55:45
50:50
65:35
50:50
50:50
50:50
55:45
55:45
55:45
55:45
50:50
55:45
50:50

 

[Xeze]

Nice! A new, more organized (and well written) MU thread is what the Mario boards needed.

 

[Seal]

I think Mario does better against little Mac, falcon, charizard, fox, Falco, and Ganondorf than he is given credit for in this thread.

 

[Xandercosm]

I think Mario does better against little Mac, falcon, charizard, fox, Falco, and Ganondorf than he is given credit for in this thread.

I completely agree. I simply took the MU data that the other thread listed and moved it here. I'm hoping that after everyone discusses the MUs here, we can change them around to fit our more up-to-date knowledge of the cast. Let's see what everyone else thinks. Hopefully a good sized discussion will start here soon so we can have lots of input from different people.

 

[TheMkrds]

I think Mario does better against little Mac, falcon, charizard, fox, Falco, and Ganondorf than he is given credit for in this thread.

i think mario loses to Little Mac, in the ground is 40 - 60, off stage is 70 - 30

 

[Xeze]

I think Mario does better against little Mac, falcon, charizard, fox, Falco, and Ganondorf than he is given credit for in this thread.

Fox I think it's even, but the rest I agree. Also, after having recent MU experience, I think Mario doesn't lose against the Pits. It's arguably even.

 

[Xandercosm]

How about everyone makes personal lists of the MUs that they think should be changed. Give reasons and say what it should be changed to.

 

[andyjew]

i think Mario has a slight advantage over corrin but a slight disadvantage against bayenetta

 

[GwJ]

Why does Mario lose to Pit?

 

[Xandercosm]

Why does Mario lose to Pit?

I have no idea. Apparently, it has something to do with arrows and Pit's good combo throws. In my opinion, Mario wins, 55:45.

 

[Kulty]

Guys,

Apparently, I've watched the Shulk forums and all of that. Apparently, Shulk mains say that Mario slightly wins the MU even with the disjointed range. While Shulk has the range, his frame data just prevents him from punishing effectively as opposed to other characters like Marth and Cloud. Once Mario gets in, Shulk gets juggled and comboed hard. At best, Mario can bring this 55-45.

Out of the characters that we lose against by theory:. I agree with most of them being difficult, but I've been wondering more aboutespecially. Like Xeze mentionned, I also don't think that the Pits are that bad of a MU, duable but difficult. After Luigi's nerfs, I feel that it's not as bad as before. The Pit boards noted that they can lose against Mario. Luigi can't kill us out of a grab anymore, but it's still difficult for Mario. I would feel it's close to even now, but I would put 45-55 in Luigi's favor just for safety. Also, I've seen recent videos of the Mario-Ness MU and I don't think it's as terrible as before (maybe even at best). Finally, I don't understand why people think thatare worst than actually. I don't know, but it doesn't really make sense to me.

EDIT: In a nutshell, I feel that the only MUs that Mario really struggles against are. The others are perfectly duable (45-55 at best).

 

[Xandercosm]

Guys,

Apparently, I've watched the Shulk forums and all of that. Apparently, Shulk mains say that Mario slightly wins the MU even with the disjointed range. While Shulk has the range, his frame data just prevents him from punishing effectively as opposed to other characters like Marth and Cloud. Once Mario gets in, Shulk gets juggled and comboed hard. At best, Mario can bring this 55-45.

Out of the characters that we lose against by theory:. I agree with most of them being difficult, but I've been wondering more aboutespecially. Like Xeze mentionned, I also don't think that the Pits are that bad of a MU, duable but difficult. After Luigi's nerfs, I feel that it's not as bad as before. The Pit boards noted that they can lose against Mario. Luigi can't kill us out of a grab anymore, but it's still difficult for Mario. I would feel it's close to even now, but I would put 45-55 in Luigi's favor just for safety. Also, I've seen recent videos of the Mario-Ness MU and I don't think it's as terrible as before (maybe even at best). Finally, I don't understand why people think thatare worst than actually. I don't know, but it doesn't really make sense to me.

EDIT: In a nutshell, I feel that the only MUs that Mario really struggles against are. The others are perfectly duable (45-55 at best).

Well, that's interesting to hear. I never really thought Shulk beat Mario. It doesn't make any sense, considering his godawful frame data and the fact that he's such combo food. I also agree that we don't lose 40:60 to the Pits.

I'm really undecided on Luigi. He can still combo quite effectively and he has some dangerous kill moves but he also has awful airspeed and no longer has his kill confirm.

Anyway, this is good. The more input, the better.

 

[Kulty]

Other tips and info for MUs:
1): I heard that ESAM stated that he does struggle fighting against Mario players as Pikachu. While it's duable, he says that he does give him a hard time. I don't personally know if it's true or not, but it's definitely something to reconsider. Someone like ESAM saying that Pikachu can lose to Mario can be a big deal, but I don't exactly know the reason why though.
2): I feel that this MU is not really even. In one of ZeRo's videos, he asked Keitaro (one of the best Falco players in the world) about his opinion about the Mario MU. He personally thinks that Falco loses to Mario, because he's combo food to Mario's up-tilt juggles and almost no way to get out of them. However, Falco does still have some good spacing tools to keep Mario away. I dont know how far Falco got buffed in the most recent patch, but I feel that we should rediscuss. Imo, I feel that this MU is slightly in Mario's favor (maybe 55-45).
3) Let's wait for a few more weeks before we can discuss. From what I see, Corrin and Bayonetta seem to be the ones to watch out for, especially Corrin imo.
4) I don't know if we care about the Miis, but it's better to add them just in case (considering default size and 1111 of course since customs are officially banned in worldwide tournaments after EVO of last year).
5) Let's make a weekly discussion for one or a bunch character and move on to the next after each week.

 

[Xandercosm]

Other tips and info for MUs:
1): I heard that ESAM stated that he does struggle fighting against Mario players as Pikachu. While it's duable, he says that he does give him a hard time. I don't personally know if it's true or not, but it's definitely something to reconsider. Someone like ESAM saying that Pikachu can lose to Mario can be a big deal, but I don't exactly know the reason why though.
2): I feel that this MU is not really even. In one of ZeRo's videos, he asked Keitaro (one of the best Falco players in the world) about his opinion about the Mario MU. He personally thinks that Falco loses to Mario, because he's combo food to Mario's up-tilt juggles and almost no way to get out of them. However, Falco does still have some good spacing tools to keep Mario away. I dont know how far Falco got buffed in the most recent patch, but I feel that we should rediscuss. Imo, I feel that this MU is slightly in Mario's favor (maybe 55-45).
3) Let's wait for a few more weeks before we can discuss. From what I see, Corrin and Bayonetta seem to be the ones to watch out for, especially Corrin imo.
4) I don't know if we care about the Miis, but it's better to add them just in case (considering default size and 1111 of course since customs are officially banned in worldwide tournaments after EVO of last year).
5) Let's make a weekly discussion for one or a bunch character and move on to the next after each week.

I really have nothing to say about Pikachu. I don't have enough MU knowledge with him to make a serious judgement. As for Falco, I definitely think it's 55:45 maybe even 60:40. A agree about Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta as well.

What should the format be for discussions? Should we make new threads for them or do them in here?

 

[Kulty]

I really have nothing to say about Pikachu. I don't have enough MU knowledge with him to make a serious judgement. As for Falco, I definitely think it's 55:45 maybe even 60:40. A agree about Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta as well.

What should the format be for discussions? Should we make new threads for them or do them in here?

I feel we should do them on separate threats. I watched the other character threads and I find the Rosalina MU boards to be really well-organized and clean. If you want to make all MUs discussions in this thread in particular, it's better to link the page from the beginning to the end of the discussion of a certain character or group of characters. Go check out the Rosalina MU boards and you will see what I mean by well-organized. I really love how organized that MU board is. It's up to you. You're the one who recreated this thread and I personally don't know how to organize the boards really well...XD

 

[Xandercosm]

I feel we should do them on separate threats. I watched the other character threads and I find the Rosalina MU boards to be really well-organized and clean. If you want to make all MUs discussions in this thread in particular, it's better to link the page from the beginning to the end of the discussion of a certain character or group of characters. Go check out the Rosalina MU boards and you will see what I mean by well-organized. I really love how organized that MU board is. It's up to you. You're the one who recreated this thread and I personally don't know how to organize the boards really well...XD

Well, I'll try doing separate threads. As I also play MK, I pay attention to those boards too. They set up the discussions like that and it seems to work out all right. So I'll go for that. I'll make the first one tomorrow. We'll start by discussing the Pits.

 

[Xeze]

Other tips and info for MUs:
1): I heard that ESAM stated that he does struggle fighting against Mario players as Pikachu. While it's duable, he says that he does give him a hard time. I don't personally know if it's true or not, but it's definitely something to reconsider. Someone like ESAM saying that Pikachu can lose to Mario can be a big deal, but I don't exactly know the reason why though.
2): I feel that this MU is not really even. In one of ZeRo's videos, he asked Keitaro (one of the best Falco players in the world) about his opinion about the Mario MU. He personally thinks that Falco loses to Mario, because he's combo food to Mario's up-tilt juggles and almost no way to get out of them. However, Falco does still have some good spacing tools to keep Mario away. I dont know how far Falco got buffed in the most recent patch, but I feel that we should rediscuss. Imo, I feel that this MU is slightly in Mario's favor (maybe 55-45).
3) Let's wait for a few more weeks before we can discuss. From what I see, Corrin and Bayonetta seem to be the ones to watch out for, especially Corrin imo.
4) I don't know if we care about the Miis, but it's better to add them just in case (considering default size and 1111 of course since customs are officially banned in worldwide tournaments after EVO of last year).
5) Let's make a weekly discussion for one or a bunch character and move on to the next after each week.

I'm almost sure that Pikachu loses to Mario. He is light, which means a well placed f-smash or up smash will KO Pikachu early. Mario can reflect neutral B and down B, FLUDD disrupts quick attack recovery.

Falco, as you said, is arguably slightly in Mario's favor. His recovery is worse than Fox and he doesn't have Fox's speed. Falco's spacing keeps this matchup from being worse for him.

As for he p̶a̶y̶2̶w̶i̶n̶ DLC characters:

- Cloud is tough but it's probably even. Don't underestimate Mario's ability to gimp at low %.
- Corrin is a bad MU, arguably the worst among those three. If Marth's range already gives us trouble, imagine Corrin's.
- Bayonetta, I don't have any MU experience with her. But I don't know if she is harder than Cloud.

 

[Xandercosm]

I would say that Cloud is 55:45 in Mario's favor. Yes, he has long ranged moves that keep Mario out but he can be comboed so easily. Also, if he doesn't have impeccable spacing, Mario can punish with a grab. Then there's F.L.U.D.D....

 

[GwJ]

Could anyone enlighten me on the Mario vs Rosa matchup?

 

[Xandercosm]

The Pit/Dark Pit discussion is here for all who want to join in: http://smashboards.com/threads/pit-dark-pit-matchup-discussion-thread-1.431536/

 

[Xeze]

The Pit/Dark Pit discussion is here for all who want to join in: http://smashboards.com/threads/pit-dark-pit-matchup-discussion-thread-1.431536/

Link that thread in the Pit/Dark Pit subforum, so they can also give us their input.

 

[Xandercosm]

Link that thread in the Pit/Dark Pit subforum, so they can also give us their input.

Done. Let's ramp up the discussion on that thread so that it can become active. Hopefully some Pit/Dark Pit mains have input since they have the most knowledge of their character.

 

[Kulty]

Done. Let's ramp up the discussion on that thread so that it can become active. Hopefully some Pit/Dark Pit mains have input since they have the most knowledge of their character.

You should go on the Pit MU boards to help us discuss the matchup. Send a message to the Pit/Dark Pit mains.

 

[pbjezgoud]

I'm pretty sure the match up for Mario vs Pit/Dark Pit is in the Pits favor only because of reach. Mario has some trouble against sword characters in general. However, I don't think it should be in there favor just because of that. Mario is faster and hits really hard. Pit's arrows can be reflected (as can Mario's fireballs), but the point is they don't change the match up all that much. This is strictly in my personal experience.

 

[GerudoKong]

As a previous Falco main, I will tell you Mario is a terrible matchup for Falco (among his worst). I'd go as far to say it's 65:35 or 70:30 for Mario. I'd also say Mario does better vs Pikachu than vice versa (nair stuffs out uair/utilts, and similar combo game but much better kill power for mario).

 

[MarioMeteor]

Oh goody, matchup thread #3.

As a previous Falco main, I will tell you Mario is a terrible matchup for Falco (among his worst). I'd go as far to say it's 65:35 or 70:30 for Mario. I'd also say Mario does better vs Pikachu than vice versa (nair stuffs out uair/utilts, and similar combo game but much better kill power for mario).

Agreed. I play Falco on the side and it's kind of shameful how bad that is for Falco.

I think the only matchups that Mario loses are the Hero-Kings, Rosalina, G&W, Corrin, and maybe Sheik.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Hey, I've gotta ask about the and MUs and why they're so different in rating. There is no character in the game more similar to DK than Bowser, so I wonder why so many people agree that Mario loses to one and not the other. Bowser has that same excellent range, limb intangibility (moves are basically sword swings when active), the same high reward on grabs in terms of damage and kill confirms, an extremely non-commital Jab that leads into dash grab on hit, and is pretty much the only move we need in neutral, our OoS game is better with Fortress, our survivability is just as good - notably better recovery and weight, we can combo break Mario's Dthrow at low percents thanks to Dair landing break, we don't need to be facing away from the opponent in order to hit with something from the air, we have a command grab that kills at %s where our Uthrow cannot guarantee one. It also A-lands without any specific timing requirement and makes it so we never have to tech the ground. And naturally, we share DK's weaknesses just as well. Combo fodder, high startup, easy to avoid or punish when airborne, etc.

I could go on, but my point is that most Bowsers I talk to agree this MU is probably even. Definitely our most manageable among the top tiers. I'm just trying to figure what about DK frightens Mario mains so much. Going up against DKWill is scary, no doubt, but any DK? Do tell.

 

[Xandercosm]

Hey, I've gotta ask about the and MUs and why they're so different in rating. There is no character in the game more similar to DK than Bowser, so I wonder why so many people agree that Mario loses to one and not the other. Bowser has that same excellent range, limb intangibility (moves are basically sword swings when active), the same high reward on grabs in terms of damage and kill confirms, an extremely non-commital Jab that leads into dash grab on hit, and is pretty much the only move we need in neutral, our OoS game is better with Fortress, our survivability is just as good - notably better recovery and weight, we can combo break Mario's Dthrow at low percents thanks to Dair landing break, we don't need to be facing away from the opponent in order to hit with something from the air, we have a command grab that kills at %s where our Uthrow cannot guarantee one. It also A-lands without any specific timing requirement and makes it so we never have to tech the ground. And naturally, we share DK's weaknesses just as well. Combo fodder, high startup, easy to avoid or punish when airborne, etc.

I could go on, but my point is that most Bowsers I talk to agree this MU is probably even. Definitely our most manageable among the top tiers. I'm just trying to figure what about DK frightens Mario mains so much. Going up against DKWill is scary, no doubt, but any DK? Do tell.

You know me from BowserBoards. I actually play DK now much more than Bowser now. The thing about DK is that he just has a waaaay safer aerial moveset. N-air is quite safe as a get-off-me move, U-air is devestating if his opponent gets above him for even a moment, and then there is the infamous B-air. B-air is the main reason Mario loses this MU. B-air is incredibly safe, outspaces Mario, kills at early percents, combos into itself, and is an amazing edge-guarding move to boot.

The problem is, Bowser's aerial moveset is super sluggish and unsafe. The safest move he has in the air is F-air (has the least startup and landing lag). On the ground DK, also has D-tilt as a poke which can trip and lead into hard reads and free grabs. Bowser has nothing like that either. Jab is pretty good in the neutral and probably the closest thing he has to DK's D-tilt but it has less range and doesn't trip. Also, because of Bowser's bad airspeed and low jumps, he is way easier to combo than DK.

Overall, Bowser is just laggier, less safe, and can't edge-guard as well. Mario can take advantage of that in a large way. Maybe the MU could be even, but I would say it's a -1 for Bowser.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

You know me from BowserBoards. I actually play DK now much more than Bowser now. The thing about DK is that he just has a waaaay safer aerial moveset. N-air is quite safe as a get-off-me move, U-air is devestating if his opponent gets above him for even a moment, and then there is the infamous B-air. B-air is the main reason Mario loses this MU. B-air is incredibly safe, outspaces Mario, kills at early percents, combos into itself, and is an amazing edge-guarding move to boot.

The problem is, Bowser's aerial moveset is super sluggish and unsafe. The safest move he has in the air is F-air (has the least startup and landing lag). On the ground DK, also has D-tilt as a poke which can trip and lead into hard reads and free grabs. Bowser has nothing like that either. Jab is pretty good in the neutral and probably the closest thing he has to DK's D-tilt but it has less range and doesn't trip. Also, because of Bowser's bad airspeed and low jumps, he is way easier to combo than DK.

Overall, Bowser is just laggier, less safe, and can't edge-guard as well. Mario can take advantage of that in a large way. Maybe the MU could be even, but I would say it's a -1 for Bowser.

The primary moves Bowser lacks is Bair and giant punch. I would argue our other strengths make up for them. DK's Dtilt is indeed really good and comparatively quick to our jab, but it's potential for tripping ends at around 63% for Mario, while Bowser's jab has weight based knockback that never changes except for being generally aided by rage. This is important since both characters will realistically live to at least 120-130% per stock vs Mario, who lacks kill confirms against heavyweights. Plus we don't have to rely on random tripping chance. You also claim that DK is safer from the air and he's really not. Bair is the only move that comes out quick, and he has to be facing away to use it. Clip him with any aerial or projectile to turn him around and he's just as helpless as us and has worse options if you stay under and in front. We can at least retreat to the ledge and bomb if we feel too much pressure in the air.

DK's Bair is excellent for being difficult to punish, Bowser's Autocancelled Fair and Bair are on par - though we really don't like to jump in the neutral (DK shouldn't either, but he gets away with it when opponents fail to keep the pressure up on him). One Day 1 lesson Bowser is expected to learn is not use aerials for landing. We're not sheik. And if safety on block is all you care about, Side B cuts through shields entirely and is great from shorthop once you've conditioned them to shield Fair and Bair. It's lagless nature also lets it beat dodges at the same time. In the time it takes DK to RAR Bair from a run, Bowser can skid stop from a run and jab. Skid stop means returning to a neutral position from a run. Bowser has one of the best at about 8 frames, DK has one of the worst at about 24 or something ridiculous, so he can only safely exit a run by jumping or with a shield option, it's predictable and slow.

The gameplay plan of both characters also need to be mentioned. When it comes to small characters like Mario, Bowser is at his best zoning like a swordsman. All we need to do is close distance until we're at a range just outside our jab of Mario. From here, Mario can't use fireballs or RAR Bair, and is too far to jab or dash grab without Bowser jabbing his approach. And if Mario attempts approaching from directly above, shellguard on Usmash beats any move or empty jump. When playing Bowser like a zoner, we're like Marth if Marth had a nasty grab game. Also I don't agree DK has better edgeguarding than Bowser. We can go out farther than him and still come back, for one thing. Mario's Up B is too quick to reasonably hit for either character. Plus our Fortress covers all ledge options, so we never have to go out. DK has nothing like that.

Again, I'm not arguing Bowser beats Mario either (my personal rating is still even). Bowser is pretty niche, so it doesn't surprise me when a Mario tells me that Bowser seems too difficult and they want to switch. All they need is more MU practice and to take more risks. I'm convinced Mario is unrealistically afraid of DK for the same reasons Bowser is difficult.

 

[Xandercosm]

Bowser is pretty niche, so it doesn't surprise me when a Mario tells me that Bowser seems too difficult and they want to switch. All they need is more MU practice and to take more risks. I'm convinced Mario is unrealistically afraid of DK for the same reasons Bowser is difficult.

To be honest, Bowser is barely frightening to us. He's so easy to combo and so punishable. I understand what you're saying. He has some great options in jab and Fortress and he can outspace us with F-air. However, you're giving Bowser way too much credit. DK has really good mobility for a heavyweight. I don't know if you've ever played DK but his mobility makes Bowser just seem sluggish. Having bad airspeed and low jumps vs Mario is not a good thing.

The thing that makes DK so scary for us is how he has similar mobility to us and can jump whenever he wants as well as being able to outspace us with his amazing B-air. Tons of characters need to be facing away from their opponent to make use of their best moves. It's not a big deal.

I think DK just simply outclasses Bowser in a lot of ways. I barely even feel like Bowser goes even with us. I have faced a good amount of Bowsers with my Mario and he's just too slow to keep up. I think he really has to outplay Mario to win. Bowser is great but I would say the MU is 55:45 in Mario's favor.

 

[GerudoKong]

I would argue that DK can't effectively punish usmash without perfect shielding, while Bowser can with multiple kill moves like sideB, downB, or pivot grab into Uair.

 

[Xeze]

So I played against a fellow smasher friend and got destroyed by his Greninja. In 20 games, more or less, I won like 1. I struggled a lot to get in and, at higher percents, to get the kill. Then I went Samus and won without much trouble. He has matchup experience against both Mario and Samus btw.

So is the MU that bad or do I have to learn the Mario-Greninja matchup better?

 

[Xandercosm]

So I played against a fellow smasher friend and got destroyed by his Greninja. In 20 games, more or less, I won like 1. I struggled a lot to get in and, at higher percents, to get the kill. Then I went Samus and won without much trouble. He has matchup experience against both Mario and Samus btw.

So is the MU that bad or do I have to learn the Mario-Greninja matchup better?

I've never heard that the MU was bad. I don't really think it is, just going on theory. I have fought a couple good Greninjas myself without much trouble. The thing is, Greninja takes huge advantage of predictability. You need to mix up your play style to defeat a good Greninja. I don't know anything about that particular player but it sounds like he capitalized a lot on your mistakes or something. I think, if played right, the MU is probably 50:50.

That's just my 2 cents. Would've been cool if you had saved some replays so I could analyze them.

 

[Xeze]

Thanks for the input! Next time I play with him, I'll save some replays. It's probably my Mario that was off that day. My Samus felt way better.

 

[Kulty]

I've never heard that the MU was bad. I don't really think it is, just going on theory. I have fought a couple good Greninjas myself without much trouble. The thing is, Greninja takes huge advantage of predictability. You need to mix up your play style to defeat a good Greninja. I don't know anything about that particular player but it sounds like he capitalized a lot on your mistakes or something. I think, if played right, the MU is probably 50:50.

That's just my 2 cents. Would've been cool if you had saved some replays so I could analyze them.

Actually, back at Apex of last year, I heard from Ally that the Greninja matchup is quite hard and can even be in Greninja's favor. It's not as bad as Rosa or the others, but it's still hard (maybe like 45-55). Greninja is very awkward to fight against for Mario players, because while Greninja is a fast-faller, he's not too vulnerable to Mario's combos and the up-tilt juggles doesn't work on him. Greninja does have decent range and can outspace us quite easily. Greninja can exploit one of Mario's greatest weaknesses very well which is his recovery. If the Greninja player knows the exact angle on how to use his Hydro-Pump, Mario is screwed and almost guaranteed to lose a stock. Greninja can be very hard to come back on stage against safely especially for characters with linear recoveries and Mario is one of them. I didn't faced a lot of Greninja, but let me tell you already that this matchup is pretty rough for Mario. It's not easy as people will think and I'm still quite shocked that Greninja isn't high-tier at this moment, but I won't be surprised if he turns out to be one later on in the metagame. Greninja is really someone we have to watch out...

 

[Xeze]

Actually, back at Apex of last year, I heard from Ally that the Greninja matchup is quite hard and can even be in Greninja's favor. It's not as bad as Rosa or the others, but it's still hard (maybe like 45-55). Greninja is very awkward to fight against for Mario players, because while Greninja is a fast-faller, he's not too vulnerable to Mario's combos and the up-tilt juggles doesn't work on him. Greninja does have decent range and can outspace us quite easily. Greninja can exploit one of Mario's greatest weaknesses very well which is his recovery. If the Greninja player knows the exact angle on how to use his Hydro-Pump, Mario is screwed and almost guaranteed to lose a stock. Greninja can be very hard to come back on stage against safely especially for characters with linear recoveries and Mario is one of them. I didn't faced a lot of Greninja, but let me tell you already that this matchup is pretty rough for Mario. It's not easy as people will think and I'm still quite shocked that Greninja isn't high-tier at this moment, but I won't be surprised if he turns out to be one later on in the metagame. Greninja is really someone we have to watch out...

Plus Greninja was buffed since Apex. Let's wait for Pound, because iStudying (Europe's best Greninja) is going. If he faces Ally in bracket, we can see the matchup in action at high level.

 

[Xandercosm]

Actually, back at Apex of last year, I heard from Ally that the Greninja matchup is quite hard and can even be in Greninja's favor. It's not as bad as Rosa or the others, but it's still hard (maybe like 45-55). Greninja is very awkward to fight against for Mario players, because while Greninja is a fast-faller, he's not too vulnerable to Mario's combos and the up-tilt juggles doesn't work on him. Greninja does have decent range and can outspace us quite easily. Greninja can exploit one of Mario's greatest weaknesses very well which is his recovery. If the Greninja player knows the exact angle on how to use his Hydro-Pump, Mario is screwed and almost guaranteed to lose a stock. Greninja can be very hard to come back on stage against safely especially for characters with linear recoveries and Mario is one of them. I didn't faced a lot of Greninja, but let me tell you already that this matchup is pretty rough for Mario. It's not easy as people will think and I'm still quite shocked that Greninja isn't high-tier at this moment, but I won't be surprised if he turns out to be one later on in the metagame. Greninja is really someone we have to watch out...

Greninja is pretty much high tier at this point. He's considered top 15 so, yeah.

In my opinion, the MU has to be 50:50 because, while Greninja can edge-guard us decently and sort of escape our combos, his frame data is really sub-par. This means that we beat him in most interactions so he is forced to calculate every move he makes against us. Also, the windbox on his Hydro Pump is pretty weak after it got nerfed into the ground. To add to that, people make Mario's recovery out to be a lot worse than it really is. He has the airspeed to maneuver around edge-guard attempts and he can stall with cape. Also, his Up-Special is frame 3, meaning he can beat out a lot of moves with it. Not to mention, you can angle it in different directions.

I think Greninja gives us trouble, but if played smart instead of aggressive, the MU is definitely even.

 

[Kulty]

Plus Greninja was buffed since Apex. Let's wait for Pound, because iStudying (Europe's best Greninja) is going. If he faces Ally in bracket, we can see the matchup in action at high level.

Yeah. We just have to know, but I'm really afraid of this, because we might have another bad matchup depending on how Ally reacts against iStudying. Based on how he played against ESAM during a tournament named BEAST 6, I think he might pose a threat to Ally and even the character. So yeah, a bit worried about Greninja which might turn into a bad matchup that Mario mains never thought of before.

 

[Sucio Guapo]

Hey guys I'm a new member, but I want to bring something up. Recently at 2GGt's FOW saga, both Winners Semis and Grand Finals were Larry Lurr vs. Nairo. Larry went Mario against Nairo's ZSS. Both sets went to game 5. From looking at the past matchup thread and seeing that ZSS was considered one of Mario's worst matchups, I think we might need to reassess the ZSS mu and see what Larry does here:

 

[Xandercosm]

Welcome to Smashboards!

Those are some really interesting matches. I think the big thing about the nerfs to ZSS is that she now has fewer killing options on us. That means we can continue to rack up damage and even get more extra credit after taking the stock than before. My friend plays ZSS and you can really feel the difference. We'll have to re-evaluate the matchup now but my early guess is that we could possibly go even now.

Thanks so much for posting those videos here, by the way!