Monty Python's Flying Mafia - SCUM VICTORY, Vult/Doop win the game!

[ranmaru]

I cannot make any conclusions (only speculation) from the execute.

 

[ranmaru]

You are coming off biased and somehow getting a scumread on Nabe from me not wanting to vote him, thats pretty bad and reaching. Not even I would say you are scum with Ryu for avoiding him.

 

[ranmaru]

oh because someone will ask. I picked ran N1 because I figured he would survive the night and and mafia would more likely target someone more town (like... me <___<), and because I figured he would make it far if he were indy.

Why did you figure I would survive the night and make it far as indy? What I want to know is, why was this important to you?

 

[ranmaru]

#HBC | Nabe Tell me why you liked Vults #533. Thank you. I am going to dip now.

 

[Vult Redux]

-_- You should be looking at my individual (and whole play) and not trying to look at pairs. I want you to think really hard about this.

Pairs are exactly what we should be looking at at this point. This is lylo and I'm not going to lynch you if I don't think you have a likely partner.

Let me ask something. Do you agree with Nabe about the 'semantics'? Also do talk to me about what I said in response to your post about me being aggro. What is the point in that?

I don't think I said something about you being aggro.

my stance on your argument with Fand was that it's more nuanced than semantics and I don't agree with Nabe about that.

Why did you figure I would survive the night and make it far as indy? What I want to know is, why was this important to you?

investigation results are useless on a dead player. I figured Kouse would have been vig shot and me or Doop the mafia shot. I also figured Nabe would likely get lynched D2 so I avoided him also. In your case: Pretty active + not likely killed + not giving me a solid read = ideal investigation target.

You are coming off biased and somehow getting a scumread on Nabe from me not wanting to vote him, thats pretty bad and reaching. Not even I would say you are scum with Ryu for avoiding him.

it not reaching; it's analyzing an interaction between two players and... that's part of the game.

you could suggest that my interaction with Ryu is scummy. Nabe brought that up (though his argument more related to claims).

I cannot make any conclusions (only speculation) from the execute.

i know. it's information to keep in mind but shouldn't be the sole reason for a lynch.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

#HBC | Nabe Tell me why you liked Vults #533. Thank you. I am going to dip now.

The whole post is stamped for approval. Everything Vult says in that post is in line with how I feel on your play, aside from the bit about Spakscum in another game that I don't know about.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Nabe, I would like to know why you asked about my questioning before I had a conclusion. It was definetly more meaningful then your questioning to me. Simply stating that without why you believe it isn't rubs me the wrong way. I am open to discussing it.

I wanted to hear what Spak thought about you/Fand since Spak replaced Defen. It's no more or less than that. That you are asking why I am asking Spak about you asking Fand about him asking Defen a question is blowing my mind on every conceivable level, because even if what you were talking to Fand about wasn't fundamentally useless, it could not have possibly polluted your "questioning" in any way.

On not CCing, I did not want to commit to cc or not CC, because this is no normal setup, si I defaulted to ignoring roles and focusing on play. I did just post my thoughts and role as soon as possible though, as I was writing that before hand.

But you have nothing at all to say about a player claiming the same role as you? Nothing about the implications of that, at all? Not even a comment on it being out-of-the-ordinary as Maven's setup decision, if you think Doop is town?

 

[Vult Redux]

There's also the outside possibility of Ran/Ryu (in which case Ran fakeclaimed an already-claimed role for some reason), but Ryu/Doop is completely out the window since Doop claimed 1-Shot Vig before Ran did. (Unless Doop made the luckiest claim ever, or had a counterclaim role supplied to him by the mod as a safeclaim. Both options are unlikely.) This means that Doop can only be scum with Ran, not with Ryu and certainly not with Vult.

Can you clarify the logic here? I don't really follow. (the highlighted part in particular)

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

For Ryu to be scum with Doop, that would mean that Doop isn't scum with Ran. Doop claimed 1-Shot Vig before Ran claimed 1-Shot Vig. So for Doop to be scum with Ryu and also claim 1-Shot Vig, he has to have:

a) made a really lucky claim of 1-Shot Vig prior to Ran claiming (very unlikely)
b) got a fakeclaim from Maven of 1-Shot Vig (very weird since that would mean Maven gave Doop a fakeclaim that already existed as another role in the setup)

As such, Doop being scum with Ryu is such a longshot that it's not worth considering at all.

 

[Vult Redux]

For Ryu to be scum with Doop, that would mean that Doop isn't scum with Ran. Doop claimed 1-Shot Vig before Ran claimed 1-Shot Vig. So for Doop to be scum with Ryu and also claim 1-Shot Vig, he has to have:

a) made a really lucky claim of 1-Shot Vig prior to Ran claiming (very unlikely)
b) got a fakeclaim from Maven of 1-Shot Vig (very weird since that would mean Maven gave Doop a fakeclaim that already existed as another role in the setup)

As such, Doop being scum with Ryu is such a longshot that it's not worth considering at all.

ah okay. I suppose you could extend that to any DoopxPlayer team. In which case, he's town... unless Ran isn't.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Well, sure, but Doop's not scum with me fmpov, and Doop's not scum with you because you're clear (unless you're a Night scum PR, I guess, but they already have executioner) so that only leaves DoopxRyu and DoopxRan.

 

[Vult Redux]

part of me is super paranoid that I'm overlooking something.

Dooplissity thoughts on Nabes content D3? Does it change your opinion on him? And if not, what's your top most likely team?

same questions at @Ryu I guess.

 

[Vult Redux]

oops i just tagged a rando my bad.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

oops i just tagged a rando my bad.

Nabe was starting to step up at the end of day 1 when he went on Ran. This overall is more consistent.

What wasn't was the more recent larger broader scope which is what concerned me going into today.

 

[ranmaru]

I'll be posting tonight after martial arts.

 

[Dooplissity]

i'll be longposting in a little bit, sorry, was busy most of yesterday and yesterday sucked.

 

[Vult Redux]

Nabe was starting to step up at the end of day 1 when he went on Ran. This overall is more consistent.

What wasn't was the more recent larger broader scope which is what concerned me going into today.

and your lynch preference?

 

[ranmaru]

First off, I have more to gain as town to claim later than actually claiming first. You are assuming too much from me wanting to claim later, it's too much speculation and you are trying to fall under a strict rule of 'only people with results will want to claim'. Also, I didn't crumb either, so it's not like I implied I was a Power Role with results. If I did imply something and then fell short, then you could press me on that. Anyway, moving on. As town, knowing I'm obvious town, I will want others to go before me. Especially my scumreads.

Here are some re-evaluations.

Vult. He's been pretty active, and along with Nabe, has been pushing me. Along with Nabe, isn't really answering the question of 'Why does me being aggressive matter, does he think aggressive = scumtell?" If he does, then he's obviously wrong. I still fault him for the lynch of Gheb, who I tried hard to steer clear of. Wrong, but Slight-townie. I mean, let us look at the record here: Vult scumread Gheb, Doop scumread Gheb, Ryu Gutscumread Gheb, Nabe was deadline gheb, I was deadline Gheb. Finally, I want to say that Vult is too comfortable with letting anyone hop a wagon and doesn't hold them accountable for it. I mean, are you looking at intent man? Serious question. Not even as in game, but actual play. What I mean is, are you trying hard enough? This is Lylo. If you want to lynch me based on my decision to claim later, then you are the person not looking at the big picture, while I am (considering your whole play instead of one phase). This is while you accused of Gheb not looking at the whole picture. (Although he *was* wrong so you might have a point there if you can illustrate it, that would be helpful) Also, it's not confirmed that he's a Fake role yet, since he has not had his results returned to him in a whacky manner. Also, trying to look for a partner for me is very faulty, since 1) I'm town and 2) You would need a scumflip FIRST before even considering connections. This is Mafia 101 here. It's fine to note but, you know, look for scum individually first, we don't have the space to muck up lynches with illogical **** today.

Nabe, null. Nabe has attacked me before as town when I thought he was scum, so I can't tell. My only concern with Nabe is that he never considers that a Mafia Rolecop would exist. Him stating that Doop can only be scum with me, setting up a Doop > Ran chain if Doop flips scum. I think Nabe's analysis of that is highly faulty, the setup spec seems nice, but he didn't consider everything. Now, I don't have him in my immediate cross-hairs because of Ryu. Where is Ryu again?

Doop, #240

I believe Doop was trying to put down Gheb simply by disagreeing with him, by using his town read of Fandango against him. As soon as Gheb voted Fandango, Doop released a gut town read on Fandango, and further explained the read: He can see where I was coming from, but also sees what Fan was saying and agreed with it. He's going on both sides. He states Gheb is discrediting Fan (when he's actually saying that Fan is discrediting me without giving reason as to why, Gheb had a pretty good post and I noted this) while not going deep into why he 'sees what he is saying'. Also, include the fact he claimed the same role as me. As I said before, I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I can't think of anything else when he's actually lurking it out now, I'm being attacked and left to dry. Also, notice how he and Ryu hadn't really given lynch picks at all.

Ryu, I feel is scum simply because he has no lynch pics right now, Hopped on Gheb without any shame. Has this long string of posts only when I pressure him, but doesn't do **** the rest of the game. Opportunistically takes the chance to state his *sudden* town read on me is weaning, when he's had me as null all game, when others have had me as town. His game has been pretty mysterious with how he was reading people. He's lurking right now as well. I mean, he simply claimed jailer, while maintaining "I don't care if ran dies" meaning his 'opinion' on me didn't change. His read on me is bull****.

---

So, Doop > Ryu, which ever is fine for me.

 

[ranmaru]

Nabe, you pride yourself as being one who can read Ryu especially when he's scum. Has this not occurred to you at all this game?

Now, let us think about roles here. First, Nabe states that Doop can only be scum with me, since we both claim the same role. He states it's ballsy to also claim the same role, but it's my role. What would be my motivation as scum to counter claim my own supposed buddy? Seriously. Now, let us consider, that it can be possible Scum have a Mafia Rolecop, and had garnered enough information on who has what role. Why has Nabe not considered this? I would think it's a good counter to there being two information roles in the town. It's also possible Scum already know the setup, while we needed the Fake-cop to figure it out piece by piece.

I believe Ryu can be lying while being a Mafia Roleblocker. There is no way to tell either way. I can't think of something that counters the executioner. That ****'s OP and I fault it for the loss if town loses. One I didn't develop my read on Ryu further, and two it's possible scum used that to add have a kill on Spak and possibly be able to check a person's role. Now, consider this setup was supposed to have 12 members in it. Could it not be possible that Maven forgot to leave in the Executioner's counter? I think we are stretching it to state that Ryu being a Jailer is a must. I don't see his play lining up with that role. (Meaning town role) I obviously think Ryu has more of a chance than Nabe of being scum even though people are claiming he's obviously the Jailer. There is a missing piece and I can't find it, but I don't believe for a second that Ryu's play today = town jailer. **** no.

Finally, we don't actually know if Vult is a Fake Role or not. He's been roleblocked/jailed by Ryu, for an iffy reason even. So if Vult is also a legit town role, then would there even be room for a counter to the Executioner?

 

[ranmaru]

For Ryu to be scum with Doop, that would mean that Doop isn't scum with Ran. Doop claimed 1-Shot Vig before Ran claimed 1-Shot Vig. So for Doop to be scum with Ryu and also claim 1-Shot Vig, he has to have:

a) made a really lucky claim of 1-Shot Vig prior to Ran claiming (very unlikely)
b) got a fakeclaim from Maven of 1-Shot Vig (very weird since that would mean Maven gave Doop a fakeclaim that already existed as another role in the setup)
c) Has a mafia role cop and copped ran and just claimed 1-shot vig while using his own flavor

As such, Doop being scum with Ryu is such a longshot that it's not worth considering at all.

The red is very faulty. There is no solid evidence to support he was lucky in doing it, it's possible he has information that can help him claim that way. It's only a possibility, but you neglect to mention it. Now let us look at c), which I added. Look at my flavor and action, while looking at his flavor and action. Does it line up? I'm Lancelot, and I stab people. Supposedly. He's a knight with a chicken. Does it make sense? (I am only familiar with Monty Python's Holy Grail, so someone who knows more about Monty Python, please fill in the blanks) Doop claimed he 'fired' his shot. Role cops can only return role results, so he would obviously have to mix and match flavor and the role to make a fake claim.

 

[ranmaru]

I'm going to sleep. Have a good night.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Waiting a bit for Doop to birth that post before commenting.

 

[Vult Redux]

Ryu, I feel is scum simply because he has no lynch pics right now, Hopped on Gheb without any shame. Has this long string of posts only when I pressure him, but doesn't do **** the rest of the game. Opportunistically takes the chance to state his *sudden* town read on me is weaning, when he's had me as null all game, when others have had me as town. His game has been pretty mysterious with how he was reading people. He's lurking right now as well. I mean, he simply claimed jailer, while maintaining "I don't care if ran dies" meaning his 'opinion' on me didn't change. His read on me is bull****.

yeah I was thinking this yesterday.

His #574 worried me in particular. It makes me feel like he's just trying to pull out null reads so that I (and Nabe I guess) feel more comfortable voting for you and he can quickhammer. He's not scumhunting anymore, that's for sure. Just reacting to things we say.

Doop hasn't been here so I can't say the same applies to him. He looks actually busy whereas Ryu looks like he's being just inactive enough to float by and quickhammer when the opportunity comes.

I don't really think that a Mafia Rolecop who investigated you would claim your role.

I know nothing about the flavor except my skit

If one of you is Spiny Norman I'm going to be so mad

 

[Vult Redux]

If Ryu were a Mafia Roleblocker it would explain why the mafia hasn't killed me.

or maybe I'm overrating how town I come off.

I just had a thought. If Ran is suggesting Ryu-Doop team, then Mafia would be Roleblocker-Executioner. This means that pair in particular would not have a rolecop power.

 

[Vult Redux]

I'm going to be kicking myself after the game if we lose because I let both Nabe and Ran live when there's strong voting evidence suggesting they are scum.

 

[ranmaru]

We know there's a scum executioner. This is contrasted by the cop duo, which adds speed to the town figuring out the Fake ruse. But there's a question about whether or not that's enough in terms of balance, and while it's WIFOM in a sense, having two identical roles (Fake 1-Shot Vigilante) would also speed up the process for town figuring it out, but then it would also introduce a possible CC mislynch. That's not bad on balance.

So from my point of view, it's either Vult/Ryu or Ran/Doop.

This makes me think it's possible Ryu-Nabe team can be a thing. I don't know how else Mafia could know my role. If Doop and I do have legit roles, I would lean towards Ryu-Nabe. I still can't figure out what would be what counters the executioner. It depends on Doop's response/play.

 

[ranmaru]

I'm going to be kicking myself after the game if we lose because I let both Nabe and Ran live when there's strong voting evidence suggesting they are scum.

I think we have the strongest evidence against Ryu. If RB-Executioner is a thing, then that would have to mean that Doop/Ran are both legit. If Ryu flipped Roleblocker, that would most likely clear us. I'm switching my order to Ryu first.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

If Ryu were a Mafia Roleblocker it would explain why the mafia hasn't killed me.

or maybe I'm overrating how town I come off.

I just had a thought. If Ran is suggesting Ryu-Doop team, then Mafia would be Roleblocker-Executioner. This means that pair in particular would not have a rolecop power.

Ooh, good eye! This keeps me feeling very good about the low-to-zero possibility of Ryu/Doop.

I'm not voting Ryu toDay, with the obvious exception of if someone were to force a him-or-me scenario. He can only be scum with Ran or Vult fmpov, and as I've said I don't think it's Vult, so with Ran pushing Ryu as his top lynch, to me voting that way doesn't make any sense. Ran pairs with Doop and with Ryu. Although, in either case that's a bus from Ran... Doop posting soon is really important.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

This makes me think it's possible Ryu-Nabe team can be a thing. I don't know how else Mafia could know my role. If Doop and I do have legit roles, I would lean towards Ryu-Nabe. I still can't figure out what would be what counters the executioner. It depends on Doop's response/play.

But your reason for hypothesizing the existence of a role-cop was to explain how a scum Doop could know your role name. If Doop is town, which Ryu-Nabe implies, then there's no reason to think that the mafia members knew your role prior to you claiming it.

 

[Vult Redux]

I still can't figure out what would be what counters the executioner. It depends on Doop's response/play.

does Spiny Norman sound like an executioner?

i might be a cop that can only catch a specific mafia member.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I think we have the strongest evidence against Ryu. If RB-Executioner is a thing, then that would have to mean that Doop/Ran are both legit. If Ryu flipped Roleblocker, that would most likely clear us. I'm switching my order to Ryu first.

Why?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Internet broke and I'm packing for a vacation, dad thought messing with the lights in the house was a good idea which cut out our cable. Would have posted monday but yeah.

and your lynch preference?

Thinking about it, if Nabe came with this out of nowhere and how legit he thought of Ran scum at this point. He was looking at that direction day 1 so it wasn't out of nowhere.

Ran's play troubles me more when I reread, his day 2 explanation for why he pushed me day 1 is looking worse and worse given the execute let him avoid needing to explain a lot of his day 2 actions and why he wanted a mass claim early day 2. Top this off with his shady explanation for why he waited to claim I'm starting to not like his slot more. I was liking him more with day 2 but starting to dislike him a lot more with how off his reads come off as even recently where he changes them on a flip of a dime.

You, don't care to lynch. I want you in lylo.

Doop is competing with Nabe for other scum. Really a lot of it comes down to what the slot did. Early play has him bringing up some valid points but a lot of semantics arguing with Nabe which I didn't care for. If I had to POE it I would lynch Doop over Nabe.

Ran>Doop.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

does Spiny Norman sound like an executioner?

i might be a cop that can only catch a specific mafia member.

It's at this point that I've looked up Spiny Norman and realized that he's supposed to be a figment of Dinsdale's imagination in the show. This goes a long way towards hinting that you are not a real FBI Agent, which is also hinted at by there being basically no room for an indy in the setup.

Spiny Norman would also be a massive hedgehog the size of a small building, while everyone else so far has claimed a more or less normal human character... although I think that particular piece of logic isn't very holding.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

yeah I was thinking this yesterday.

His #574 worried me in particular. It makes me feel like he's just trying to pull out null reads so that I (and Nabe I guess) feel more comfortable voting for you and he can quickhammer. He's not scumhunting anymore, that's for sure. Just reacting to things we say.

Doop hasn't been here so I can't say the same applies to him. He looks actually busy whereas Ryu looks like he's being just inactive enough to float by and quickhammer when the opportunity comes.

I don't really think that a Mafia Rolecop who investigated you would claim your role.

I know nothing about the flavor except my skit

If one of you is Spiny Norman I'm going to be so mad

Sorry that got posted early due to phone and being at work.

not happy about recent days with this either. :/

Still Don't overthink it, none of my actions line up or make sense with me being adamant on you claiming first.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Dooplissity this nation needs you

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

The Day started last Saturday close to 1 a.m. Eastern so we're into the final 48 hours at best.

Ran feels a bit easy and I don't like Ryu liking my posts~

 

[ranmaru]

One thing that rubs me the wrong way is Ryu stating he liked my play D2. What exactly did he like? The day was pretty short, and him using the execute as a reason for me not getting to the massclaim explanation is in distaste. Notice how most of his reads are re-reads and not genuine reads from the get go.

 

[ranmaru]

Why?

It would mean there is no way for mafia to know my role. Therefore, if Ryu flipped mafia role blocker, there would be no room for Mafia Role Cop. Meaning, your explanation of two 1shot vigs existing to balance the two cop town. I have seen this happen to myself before as well. (Woody joat and buzz joat lynched one after the other because CC!)

 

[ranmaru]

But your reason for hypothesizing the existence of a role-cop was to explain how a scum Doop could know your role name. If Doop is town, which Ryu-Nabe implies, then there's no reason to think that the mafia members knew your role prior to you claiming it.

Right. I don't get your point. I don't think a nabe/ryu team would know my role.

 

[Vult Redux]

The Day started last Saturday close to 1 a.m. Eastern so we're into the final 48 hours at best.

Ran feels a bit easy and I don't like Ryu liking my posts~

Nabe is just as crackdt and self-doubting and wishy-washy as me? confirmed town.

my goal is to make a decision tonight. I'm not sure Doop will change my mind on anything but we'll see