Matchup of the Day Thread

DvarakElt · Jan 20, 2013

Well, I want to see a matchup chart, so I'm going to get started making one. However, I don't play all the characters in the game, so I need everyone's help to make it happen.

Here's how it works:
Once a day I'm going to post a link to a survey featuring a character.
If you have experience playing against that character, please fill out the survey.

You will be asked which character you main and how you think the matchup is.
You will not be able to select the featured character. For the purposes of this excercise miror matches will be assumed to be 50-50

Translucent · Jan 20, 2013

By 0-100 Bowser unloseable, do you mean for bowser it's unloseable or for my character it is?

DvarakElt · Jan 20, 2013

That means Bowser cannot lose.
The first Number is your characters chance of winning, the second one is Bowsers.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 20, 2013

What's the difference between strongly favored and very strongly favored?

Similarly, what's the difference between favored and strongly favored?

I think I'll just put the Zard matchup as a +/- 0 to avoid all this confusion.

DvarakElt · Jan 20, 2013

The numbers are percentages. I.E. 10-90 Bowser Very Strongly Favoured means that if you and a bowser of equal skill were to play a whole bunch of matches your character would only win about 10% of the time.

So if the Strongly, Very strongly stuff confuses you, just think of the first number as your chance of winning, and the second number as bowser's chance of winning any arbitrary match.

Vashimus · Jan 20, 2013

So if it's 10-90 Bowser, YOUR character has a 10% chance of winning, not Bowser.

OK, just wanna be clear.

BJN39 · Jan 20, 2013

DvarakElt said:
The numbers are percentages. I.E. 10-90 Bowser Very Strongly Favoured means that if you and a bowser of equal skill were to play a whole bunch of matches Bowser would only win about 10% of the time.

So if the Strongly, Very strongly stuff confuses you, just think of the first number as your chance of winning, and the second number as bowser's chance of winning any arbitrary match.

Wait, you say bowser strongly favored, but say he wins only 10%.

But 10-90 on the poll is non-bowser char will lose.

???

Edit: Ninja'd

DvarakElt · Jan 20, 2013

BJN39 said:
Wait, you say bowser strongly favored, but say he wins only 10%.

But 10-90 on the poll is non-bowser char will lose.

???

Edit: Ninja'd

Sorry about that. Fixed.

Limeee · Jan 20, 2013

i like the idea of this thread, if it gets popular enough we can get some interesting and well organized data

subbed

No U · Jan 20, 2013

Lucas vs. Bowser is 65-35 imo. Lucas can really zone him out with pkf and convert anything into an insane combo since booser's so big. ofc booser can gimp and 3 shot my boy but I feel like Lucas has superior approaches and death combos if played optimally.

Stunts · Jan 20, 2013

No U said:
Lucas vs. Bowser is 65-35 imo. Lucas can really zone him out with pkf and convert anything into an insane combo since booser's so big. ofc booser can gimp and 3 shot my boy but I feel like Lucas has superior approaches and death combos if played optimally.

Interesting. The funny thing is I say it's 60-40 :Bowser. I usually end up crawling through Lucas' PKF. I also use his super armor to his advantage; SideB can really be used to Booze's advantage, along with his arials, all his arials have a usage. Since Lucas' big head pokes through his recoveries, even tethers, I think Dtilt is one of Bowser's safest moves on him. With addition with Boozer's BnB, I find it hard to except the match is in Lucas' favor.

Chaos_Blasta · Jan 20, 2013

Page doesn't let Bowser mains post their opinions on..Bowser matchups?

It is a sad day.

DvarakElt · Jan 20, 2013

Check back tommorow.
I figure it's easier to cycle the character you are against so that you can fill out a few surveys a day, instead of waiting days for your character to show up than filling out 20-30 surveys.

And of course it dosen't matter haw bad Bowser beats Bowser, it still counts a 50-50.

OkamiBW · Jan 21, 2013

Ran it twice for my two characters.

60-40 Sheik's favor
40-60 Bowser beats Toon Link (since 55-45 isn't an option, which I think the match up is closer to)

traffic. · Jan 21, 2013

I'll cover most of Bowser's negative matchups for now, and possibly fill in some data on positive ones tomorrow.

Falco/Fox 110 / -10 Bowser - The only winning strategy is the pick a new character

Sheik 65 / 35 Bowser - Sheik's speed only factors into dodging Bowser's crushing attacks, she doesn't dps enough to have effective work on Bowz, but you still gotta be sharp to avoid getting tilted to death, and avoid fair like the ****ens.

Marth 65 / 35 Bowser - I'd even approach an 70/30 split, but Bowser has enough tools in special teams (edgeguarding, etc. anything not neutral/center stage) to make it doable, just very meticulous to space out that bloody sword.

Falcon 80 / 20 Bowser - One word. Knee****. Falcon's move delay is negligible against the even slower Booz, making every hit a crushing smackdown. Out mobilized, out kneed.

Squirtle 70 / 30 Bowser - Speed and tininess keep the little guy on top in the matchup. Typically most players are terrible with either of these two so far, and while I've found a certain affinity for both I give this one handily to the constant spacing and bashing of squirtle's fast in and out moves. Until Squirtle's tech skill is really explored more thoroughly I think most people will have a 50/50 or 60/40 in Squirt's favor, but the capacity to harass Bowser with proper control is there for Squirtle to really dominate.

Lucas 50 / 50 Bowser - Lucas has the ability to really abuse Bowser's size, but not without really being inside Bowser's punish zone. This one is really back and forth, but Lucas isn't fast enough to have a clear win in most situations, nor does Bowser have the tools to get inside Lucas's floaty spacing game. Not necessarily a very exciting match to be certain.

Ness 60 / 40 Bowser - The difference here is PK Fire over Lucas's Freeze. The multi-hit just demolishes your crouch armor and you end up at the tip of a bat very easily if you're not playing around the world to stay away from his attacks. Unfortunately, Bowser is not well suited for general avoidance and spacing when Ness (surprisingly) has the spacing advantage.

Zelda 60 / 40 Bowser - Her distance and knockout power are a distinct change up from the prior matchups, She has a tonne of effective tools for keeping away and getting damage in until that disney or fair puts him down. However, while her constant recovery is impressive, Boozer's shock and awe approach to damage puts Zelda in a near constant state of recovery, if not a state of dead.

Peach 65 / 35 Bowser - She can harass Bowser like hell, but doesn't have a tonne of kill potential on him, however the extensive metagame surrounding Peach gives her a distinct advantage over the big guy. He can keep her flying around, but the long-range game wears down on Bowser, especially if she hits those bonus damage attacks.

Ike 80 / 20 Bowser - Ike is a total butt and his sword is too big not to kill everything on the screen.

will add more as I a) play against more toons, and b) play more bowser instead of focusing on falcon and sheik to dial in melee mechanics like shuffling and platforming.

Chaos_Blasta · Jan 21, 2013

traffic. said:
I'll cover most of Bowser's negative matchups for now, and possibly fill in some data on positive ones tomorrow.

Falco/Fox 110 / -10 Bowser - The only winning strategy is the pick a new character

Ike 80 / 20 Bowser - Ike is a total butt and his sword is too big not to kill everything on the screen.

Something feels very wrong with the ratings of these 2 MUs.

Okay, Fox is definitively something like 70-30 but it's definitively not unwinnable in any way. Falco doesn't have as much mobility or speed compared to fox and his regular approach method is stuffed by just crawling.

And i personally love the Ike matchup. It's like the Marth MU (which i kinda agree on beind bad for Bowser), except better in every way because Ike is much slower and is much more susceptible to pressure compared to Marth, and Bowser is very good at dealing pressure.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

DvarakElt said:
The numbers are percentages. I.E. 10-90 Bowser Very Strongly Favoured means that if you and a bowser of equal skill were to play a whole bunch of matches your character would only win about 10% of the time.

So if the Strongly, Very strongly stuff confuses you, just think of the first number as your chance of winning, and the second number as bowser's chance of winning any arbitrary match.

How do you win "about 10%" of the time. If the matchup is that strongly in Bowser's favour you won't be winning any matches against him lol.

Besides which, matches don't win tournaments, sets do.

Chance of winning a match makes no sense as a criteria. brb going to randomly assign arbitrary matchup numbers.

traffic. · Jan 21, 2013

those two are mostly bitter exaggerations towards the demon master who schools me on a regular basis. i dont think they are unwinnable, but my god are they the most miserable i've dealt with so far. Ike being played like Marth would make for an easier MU without question. Ike being played like a defensive slow/large char like bowz makes this matchup grueling and brutal. Approaching becomes a nightmare when you have someone who can play the MU with the weaknesses you mentioned in mind. Marth being more selective and having a major boost via priority and armor is a scary wall to break through. My first impression of Ike was to play him as you would Marth, but his strength absolutely lies in doing the opposite and treating him like a campy fgt who has your *** covered.

Falco's mobility compared to Fox doesn't lend to Bowser being any more capable of escaping shine pillars, and he otherwise deals more consistent damage between lasers/dairs/utilts. His kills might take longer but it's not much correlation when you're just as easily combo'd for the few extra hits it takes to catch up to KO time. It doesn't help that I play against one of the best Falco's in the region, but I do plan on revisiting this matchup after another good session exchanging notes with him. Still a soul crushing string a defeats on my end =/

traffic. · Jan 21, 2013

Kink-Link5 said:
How do you win "about 10%" of the time. If the matchup is that strongly in Bowser's favour you won't be winning any matches against him lol.

Besides which, matches don't win tournaments, sets do.

Chance of winning a match makes no sense as a criteria. brb going to randomly assign arbitrary matchup numbers.

Play 10 matches. Number of wins per 10 matches, over averaged by number of 10 match test periods, gets you that number. if across a large test group bowser wins on average 1 out of 10 matches, it's a 90-10 split. It is not a chance thing, it is a general rule of thumb to gauge how creativity and skill gap are going to effect your likelihood of success.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

You don't play ten matches in a set, and you aren't going to be winning the match in any of those 10 if you have a 9:1 odds of losing. For all effective purposes and for the purposes of examining matchups in a competitive (As in, tournament) enviornment, a "10:90" matchup is unwinnable.

Where's the option to put 42:58 as the ratio? You know, for when you play 100 matches, you'll win 42 of them?

DvarakElt · Jan 21, 2013

Kink-Link5 said:
You don't play ten matches in a set, and you aren't going to be winning the match in any of those 10 if you have a 9:1 odds of losing. For all effective purposes and for the purposes of examining matchups in a competitive (As in, tournament) enviornment, a "10:90" matchup is unwinnable.

Where's the option to put 42:58 as the ratio? You know, for when you play 100 matches, you'll win 42 of them?

In science and applied mathematics there is a thing known as artificial precision. Essentialy 42:58 has no advantage over 40:60 because it's impossible to know that precisely.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

It's impossible to know as precisely as the difference between 80:20 and 90:10 too but that doesn't seem to stop their inclusions.

DvarakElt · Jan 21, 2013

Kink-Link5 said:
It's impossible to know as precisely as the difference between 80:20 and 90:10 too but that doesn't seem to stop their inclusions.

I have to draw the line somewhere, and 10% increments is pretty standard.
There really is no way to satisfy you is there.

Anyway,

New Match-up for today! Captain Falcon!

http://obsurvey.com/S2.aspx?id=c74df78b-433f-49c8-a560-c8a1d2be2a6c

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

There is a way to satisfy me, you're just not the man to do it hrmph >:T

I just see matchups in a broader spectrum than devising lines in marginally different bad matchups. There's "even enough," "counterpicks," and "realistically unwinnable" matchups to me. It's just a matter of describing matchups in more meaningful ways than a set of loosely different numbers, and reflects more on the nature of the game being more about knowing what goes INTO the matchup than speculating how to roughly gauge "how tough" the matchup is.

A scale of -2 to +2 would be adequate is all I mean.

bubbaking · Jan 21, 2013

I like ratios, but if we're gonna switch to +/- values, we need at least 7 tiers (+3 to -3).

DvarakElt · Jan 21, 2013

In reply to Kink:

I'd do that but it would make my statistics messy, less reliable, and harder to draw meaningful conclusions from. Outliers would also be more of a problem.

15 points apart would probably be better in all honesty, but 15 doesn't go into 100 evenly making things messy again.

20 points apart is stretching it for me, and it doesn't let me have an even matchup without an offset. (Some variant of this would probably have been my second choice.)

25 points is basically what you described, and it just makes the data harder to work with. because trends arn't nearly as pronounced.

Trust me. I do stuff like this as a job.

Tell you what. I'll make a special matchup chart for you at the end.

Vashimus · Jan 21, 2013

Kinky gets special treatment and a personal matchup chart? Now I'm jelly.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

I just have a problem with it because this sort of thing isn't what you'd want to apply hard numbers to. I throw around the word arbitrary sarcastically sometimes, but I mean it regarding the grey difference in matchup ratios. It's fine and you don't have to do anything; I'll just cover matchups as 50:50, 30:70, and 0:100, along with their parallels as it's more reflective of what to expect in an actual setting where the numbers are meant apply.

On the record, I'm not a fan of matchup numbers in general, since they never tell you anything about the matchup itself or what either character has to do in it. I just think if they're going to be there, they should be split along much more clear lines.

DvarakElt · Jan 21, 2013

That's fine,
I just really like using actual number estimates because it makes working with the responses a lot easier, and my work more transparent.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

I think the responces would be fine to work with using a 5 point system still. Some people will think the matchup is +/- 0, and some might think it's +1, giving you an average between the two. In the same light, it removes the risk of outliers making a large difference, compared to having a large concentration around 32:68 offset a large amount by someone listing the matchup as 100:0.

There's no real way of knowing how it would effect averages without testing it though.

NightShadow6 · Jan 21, 2013

I'd have to say that Charizard/Falcon is 40-60.

Each character can do some nasty things to each other, but Falcon's mobility just outclasses zard.
(That knee is devastating on such a big target)

bubbaking · Jan 21, 2013

This game isn't so balanced that its MUs fit under 5 tiers. 7 tiers is a minimum.

Kink, why don't you just treat the ratio system as an 11-tiered MU value system? Because that's essentially what it is. If your only gripe is with it being 'arbitrary ratios' instead of a tiered system, well there you go. Dvarak practically made it a tiered system with his labels next to the ratios.

traffic. · Jan 21, 2013

The silly argument here that either +/- scale or x/x scale is the same bloody thing and completely useless when taken for concrete evidence of a matchup. the only thing that matters is the two people playing if youre going to ask whos going to win. the applied averages and matchup charts are more useful for people who havent played much and are interested in finding out which characters will be the harder matchups. the idea is to compare the char's strengths and weaknesses and dovetail the information together.

if you think that anyone here is saying BOWSER WINS ONE OUT OF TEN MATCHES AGAINST X WITHOUT QUESTION you're missing the point completely.

edit- also, if you are capable of breaking down the matchup chart and why it is not evidence but simply a newbie's guide to seeing the trends, then you're also capable of not needing a matchup chart.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

traffic. said:
if you think that anyone here is saying BOWSER WINS ONE OUT OF TEN MATCHES AGAINST X WITHOUT QUESTION you're missing the point completely.

Then by all means, make your point in a way that indicates anything otherwise.

traffic. · Jan 21, 2013

Well then let's dismiss all ranking systems by ignoring the discussion around why things get ranked.

Kink-Link5 · Jan 21, 2013

Or you could have an actual conversation instead of throwing a tantrum.

A 90:10 matchup doesn't mean a 10% chance of winning, it doesn't indicate how many matches will be won out of 10, what does it indicate to you traffic.-san?

bubbaking · Jan 21, 2013

Actually, that's what 90:10 means. You're supposed to win 9 out of 10 times against someone of a similar skill level. That's why I personally think the worst MUs in Smash are 70:30 and not something more drastic. Stages play too big a part for any MU to be much worse than 70:30 in a non-vBrawl game.

OkamiBW · Jan 21, 2013

Added my data.

Sheik v Falcon - 60-40 Sheik
Toon Link v Falcon - 50-50 even

GMaster171 · Jan 21, 2013

I put in 50-50 for Ness, they both kinda ToD eachother, but with Ness' improved abilities its much better now than it was in Melee. Its Ness' grab combos vs Falcon's... anything combos, whoever gets grabbed or offstage first is the dead one. Its just as easy for Ness as it is for Falcon, using f-throw and fair.

OkamiBW · Jan 21, 2013

I believe Ness can also CG Falcon.

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