I enjoyed this post, I laughed because it read like a buff-Marth campaign.
I'm inclined to agree with you but I'm curious as to what you think on what people think as it pertains to Marth. In the previous title people thought Marth was better than Lucina, in this it's Lucina over Marth. I take it you think the common view of Lucina>Marth due to consistency is justified. Would you say it was enough for people to justifiably say Marth = or > Lucina if it was mostly reverted, his 'nerfs'? What about all? Jab1>ftilt would be enough to make him reign again, or not even then in this engine?
One of the biggest things that makes me sad with Marth is that it's an awful thing for any competitive or skillful game to remove skill in order to balance. While sometimes it must be done, usually it should be the last resort and even then you could remove skill in one area but then increase it in other. Across games, he went from being combo heavy, to having a reliably connecting DB but didn't kill, (the 3rd forward hit in melee packed a punch that could kill, it was awesome) in brawl, and he sort of looks the same but doesn't feel the same usually in worse ways- can't chain grab, grab is so much weaker it's laughable, dair spike is so few frames but a laggy move, very weak compared to how it use to be, DB is the most flexible, (timing) it's been but probably the worst version it has ever been, fsmash feels neutered, (not sure if that's actually true) his neutral b being changed, for good and bad. I'm really fond of the old two handed swing. He's a very different character than he use to be. That's one of the bigger things that makes me sad, the over-reliance and neutral game and less combos.
Although I do like the shield breaker being changed so you can angle it, and the DB flexibility so you could do it very fast if you wanted is cool, DB just fails to connect too often, it's too laggy, (db 1) and I suspect overall you are right, I think the tipper should be a little more. Between the two I'd opt for more combos, though, more hitstun, maybe, and then just like in melee you could space for a tipper better.
Still, I do feel ambivalent about it. I'm inclined to agree because Marth doesn't get very good placement results and it's all Lucina, but, would he if Lucina didn't exist? I think a big problem with Marth and 'getting good' at him is something we can acknowledge at the fore front, with Lucina, you have to remember 1 knock back for all her moves at every % for every character, in simple math it'd look like this, knock back = KB,
KB x % x character x DI
We can also look at shield interactions, with Lucina, you need to know the 1 thing
With Marth you have to add sour spot and tippers, so you see how you just doubled everything you need to know about the characters and attack interactions. So being good at Marth means you have to know a lot more and react/predict accordingly, (like listening for tipper sounds)
Then there's the results. MKleo, one of the best players still can't reliably win with Marth, I do think this speaks on Marth not being that good, but that may not be entirely truthful, humor me, what if Mkleo and most people just had a sort of mental block, and didn't lab out, or give up too easily on Marth due to the frustration, thinking he was inconsistent, the worse of his fire embloomers house even if he wasn't? For instance, DB is still inconsistent on Lucina, you can make it semi-consistent on both of them, but it still will knock people away from the full combo a lot of times. This may be unfair, but I always viewed MKleo as a really good player who secondaried Marth because he made him work. IMO, when he was picking up Marth there was those that had more loyalty/determination to furthering the character, and I daresay those that were better. It's just that you always had to give it to Mkleo, his neutral game is some of the best in the business, and Marcina are heavily neutral-based.
I'm really curious what you and others think Marth would need for buffs that would bring him to the top without being annoyingly OP, or too simply too powerful. It's beyond my skill to say, as I do not perform at a higher level, and I'm rather impressed when I say Mkleo play Marth, so I don't think it's a lot, just a little, probably. . . maybe.