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I've been using mario on and off for about a year now and still have trouble understanding his neutral, but I'll try to explain it as simply as I can.
Fireballs are to force approaches and get the opponent off the ground or in shield, they can also be used to approach by mixing up on shield. (Fireballing a shield, than landing with an aerial or empty landing for a grab/roll punish) but overall they're to be used sparingly in neutral. Don't let your opponent forget you have them, but they don't advance your gamestate much in most mus against chars with good grabs/oos options.
After that, you mainly mix up how you approach the opponent.
SH uair to catch their jumps and low priority or slow start-up aerials (helpful vs disjoints at certain ranges) You then mix up how you land, either with an aerial or empty land for a grab. Maybe a fade away fireball if the spacing seems right.
SH Bair to stuff their approaches, and pressure from a range. It's not very safe on shield usually so feint it mostly. Full-hopping it is more effective against certain characters, if you're wondering why bair isn't working try that.
SH Dair is your cross-up to punish sh spam, similar to uair but it's more lingering and covers rolls.
Nair is mainly a punish button in close quarters, primarily OoS. The lingering hitbox is very small and not too rewarding except at high percent otherwise it's punishable on hit. Use this if uair isn't working, it's likely simply because of raw frame data.
These tools are all used to punish the opponent for not sitting in shield for mario's superb grab game.
Fludd is used for positional pressure. Both receiving and giving. Use it to reset when you're cornered, or get better postioning after the opponent jumped or air dodged away from your combo. Just charge it when you can, remember it gets stronger with rage too so if you need to make a comeback you can try to make a read on their ledge get up.
Aside from reads and combos, mario should be leading the opponent offstage for edge/ledgeguards for damage and kills.
That's my take on him, anyway.