Interesting Pokeball discovery

[IWontGetOverTheDam]

Last night, I turned on Pokeballs and started throwing just to get Mew. In the midst of this, I discovered something rather interesting. It seems that if you get a Gardivoir and you throw another ball, the Pokemon is highly likely to be another Gardivoir. This happened no less than eight times in my 30 minute match. What do you think?

 

[Bowser King]

it's possible but Im going to go with that its random. Stuff like that has happened a lot to me like if I through a certain pokemon then through one right after I get the same pokemon. Still I think it's just a coincidence.

 

[IWontGetOverTheDam]

Could be, but eight times in a half hour match? Seems a little too often to be random. It got to the point that if I got Gardivoir, I said to myself "bet this next one is..."

 

[Brainiac_man]

Could be, but eight times in a half hour match? Seems a little too often to be random. It got to the point that if I got Gardivoir, I said to myself "bet this next one is..."

Were you bouncing the Pokeballs off of Gardevoir's Barrier?

 

[IWontGetOverTheDam]

Hmm, that could have been it. I may have a few times.

 

[Seventh Sword]

Synchronity or an interesting game mechanism >.> We need a way to test this properly.

 

[SSJ4Kazuki]

Someone in Wales. Must play against you. Send me a PM.

A member by the name of "itsameSMB" is working on his theory that Pokeballs are far from random.
I don't believe it, but it's pretty cool how much work he's putting in.

I've frequently thrown latios AND THEN latias from 2 consecutive pokeballs, right next to each other.

And I've seen a Youtube video in which two Kyogres appeared.

 

[Wave⁂]

Testing with throwing 2 Pokeballs at a time with the IC's may yield different results... this is interesting...

 

[Spire]

I get double Gardevoirs all the time. Out of all Pokemon to get doubles of, I get a trash one like it.

For the record, I have gotten double Kyogres and double Groudons also before. Furthermore, if you release Groudon, the odds of releasing a Kyogre go way up, and vice versa. I've had the two on stage many, many times before.

 

[stoneswithstand]

well if the odds of getting Mew and other rare pokemon are extremely slim than the pokemon are not random at all

 

[Stroupes]

I would say that it's random, but it seems that it could possibly be something more than that.

 

[the_Capt_Falcon_Master]

i have gotten double meowths many many times

 

[Spire]

well if the odds of getting Mew and other rare pokemon are extremely slim than the pokemon are not random at all

Precisely. Mew, Celebi, and Jirachi (and perhaps Deoxys) all have a 1 in 493 chance of appearing, and that is a set percentage. Other Pokemon must also have a set percentage like Wobbuffet, Bonsly (I got about 5 in a row once), Munchlax, etc. Then of course, the other legendaries would appear very rarely, so everything is set, or at least every Pokemon has a set percentage and that number is tossed into a randomizer from which Pokemon are then drawn. For instance: if Meowth was a 150/493 chance Pokemon, then you would have a 32.8% chance of getting it (out of 100).

 

[OmegaXXII]

I think this Gardivoir thing was a coincidence, because like Spire said, if they all have a set ratio it probably means that it would increase the chances

 

[bioniclekid8]

in 1 hour i got about 23 torchics ( I was having a 99 life brawl-athon as TL) Coincidence, or not :veryconfu

 

[The Halloween Captain]

The same type of thing happens a lot with the random character selecetion. I think for some reason, the game has a little less trouble doing repeats than random selection every time.

 

[majora_787]

This happened to me with munchlax. I got all muchlax except for three bonsly and two metagross. it was an all pokeball match tha tlasted two minutes, obviously that's a lot of munchlax.

 

[Tofu Beast]

*suprised that this hasn't been flamed for talking about items*

 

[Negi-Kun]

i noticed that too. i played around with pokeballs too.
have you ever got six munchlaxes in a row? i have which is weird

 

[GimmeAnFSharp]

Could it have anything to do with stage selections? I notice I get legendaries more on the Stadium stages.

 

[Sai Winner of Games]

These types of things are fairly common when random number generating algorithms are involved. Basically, computers cannot really generate truly random numbers, you would need a decaying radioisotope to do that. If you are doing something like Monte Carlo approximations, for example, it can be pretty important what algorithm you use, since it could increase the uncertainty of your calculation if you use one that has results that deviate from a perfectly random probability distribution (uniform distribution for Brawl purposes, I think). The Wii probably uses a very simple algorithm or maybe even stored sets of random numbers to output (probably to increase performance), so that is probably what is causing these seemingly nonrandom results.

There is also observer bias. You will pay more attention to results that do not happen often, because you were not expecting them, but the results can still be consistant with the (uniform) distribution of values we expect. To prove that something is random or not with confidence you would need more way samples. Unless someone wants to run detailed experiments and calculate the p values to prove otherwise, we can assume that these things are done based on a random number generated by the Wii.

/thread?

 

[Doggalina]

*suprised that this hasn't been flamed for talking about items*

Why would it be? It's in the correct section and isn't telling all competitive players to use items because they take more skill.

 

[SSJ4Kazuki]

...I saw manaphy ONCE. I play the game nearly every day.

When Manaphy appeared, NOTHING HAPPENED.

Manaphy needs to be WAY more common.

 

[Wave⁂]

...I saw manaphy ONCE. I play the game nearly every day.

When Manaphy appeared, NOTHING HAPPENED.

Manaphy needs to be WAY more common.

Very true, Manaphy is my favorite ^_^