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Gheb's messy mafia madness | Day 3

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
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Sorry I said I would be gone for the weekend, that said I'll catch-up tomorrow night for sure when I get back from my first day at a new job.
 

Vult Redux

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I feel personally victimized by j and rake

Sorry I said I would be gone for the weekend, that said I'll catch-up tomorrow night for sure when I get back from my first day at a new job.
It's okay we don't need you and you're not invited to the next party anyways
 

Orboknown

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Because im awesome duh
Also, why exactly does everyone have darkpit so high on their toen lists? Is it just his open kinda nievety?
 

Vult Redux

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I have dp59 as not mafia because --

actually I'm curious what moosy's reason is so he should say first :p
 

Darkpit54

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Also, Darkpit54 Darkpit54 who do you think is most likely Mafia out of J / Rake / Ryu? Just curious
J. Gunning for Spak, then switching to Moosy was extremely suspicious before we found out that Spak was mafia. But now, it's even more suspicious
 

MoosyDoosy

Smash Ace
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704
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Because im awesome duh
Also, why exactly does everyone have darkpit so high on their toen lists? Is it just his open kinda nievety?
He's exactly like Vult but just more inexperienced. I mean, just look at all of his posts. That, or he's lying and he's insanely good at Mafia but I highly doubt that's the case

There's also the obvious fact that Spak voted for him and it's 99% likely that Mafia votes for town because they receive no protection if their partner votes them. Seeing how Spak voted for Darkpit early, it's likely it was an easy vote on an easy town to spend his vote quickly and not have to worry about where to spend his vote later. It's also why I said we should look at votes to analyze who's Mafia and not between Ryu/Rake/J.

Can you tell me why Orbo over Ryu?
Orbo is doing his standard town meta from previous games. As for Ryu, there's a case for suspicion on him. Now why Rake over Ryu? Third time asking. :]
 

Vult Redux

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Spak was voting him at the end of the day so if they wre scum together there would be a 50% chance that dp dies instead. Too risky
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
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Here's the stuff unedited. I haven't even gone over it again lol.:

Me and Ryu are 50% likely not to be scum mates together. :D If we had been scum together, his vote wouldn’t have given me protection. On the other hand, let’s keep a wary eye on him. He might have voted me because he was scum mates with Spak and voting for Spak would possibly expose him as Spak’s teammate.

Also, Darkpit went from 95% town to 99% town because Mafia likely all voted for town in this case, and Spak voted for Darkpit. Congrats on the 4% gain Darkpit!

Also wanna keep an eye on Rake. He defended Spak, tried to kill J, and was suspiciously right about my play which might come from knowing alignments beforehand as scum. I don’t think J will be teamed with Rake though, so there’s that. I do think that there’s scum in one of them though, although I want to see them fight some more to get a better sense of their alignment.

Also, Spak’s post complaining about me basically clears me as town because it’s from a clear anti-town Mafia perspective lol.

As for Spak, I realize my playstyle is frustrating, but it’s tailored to suit my strengths. I’ll be the first to admit that my reads are average, the way I form them is biased and horrible, and I’m bad at making connections to nail scummates. On the other hand, my two strengths lie in an awareness of thread sentiment and leading town effectively when necessary. So it’s less of actively trolling the game (which is fun for D1 tho, I’ll admit), but it’s more of playing to my strengths and remaining aware of my weaknesses. It’s why I immediately try to find the alignment of people who are good at forming reads and drawing connections like Maven so they can fill the weaknesses in my play if they’re fellow townies. I by no means played lazily or sloppily. In fact, this was a much tighter D1 for me than usual. I normally throw around a lot more posts, but yeah. I made sure to buddy with Vult amidst my chaos who had a lot of thread pull, gave answers and reads at the right time to stay alive, and slowly teased out who was town to buddy with them. I do apologize if my play unnecessarily frustrated you though.

Also adding this bit in now:

This post basically outs me as town lol. I was afraid Mafia would go for me tonight but I'm glad they didn't. Also kudos to doctor for nailing the right person.
This is also in addition to me thinking this slot us town.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
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Actually, process of elimination is a good idea.

Alive:
1.) Rake
2.) Orbo
4.) Maven
5.) Red Ryu
6.) J
7.) Moosy Doosy
8.) Vult Redux
9.) DarkPit

If these are our remaining members, we can say pretty safely that Vult/Darkpit/me are 90%+ town. Then Maven is 75%+ town. And Orbo 65%+ town. Which makes scum/independent Rake/Ryu/J. Since I don't think Rake/J are teamed together, it would make Ryu almost certain scum if the scum team is composed of 3 people. As a small note, J voted Orbo and Ryu voted me while Rake didn't vote at all. I'm not gonna say this game is solved, but we should be getting there shortly.

~ Gheb ~ ~ Gheb ~ can independent win with town or can only one alignment win?

idrc either way so long as we lynch above stated people sometime. Thoughts?
It's 2 person scum team.
 
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