Official 4BR Tier List V4 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[The-Technique]

About midway through the set, given how Aba was playing, he shoulda switched to Mewtwo. It’s a little more nerve wracking, but Mewtwo can actually deal with projectiles and, honestly, can cap Link’s stocks better than Bayo.

It might have crossed his mind at some point, but Aba probably thought back to his set in Civil War and figured "nah".

 

[Iridium]

Match up ratios again?

Imma go back to 2001 and use the explanation that an older player told to me when discussing SF3 MUs.

The +/- numbers are a shorthand for the ratios. 50:50 is an even MU right? Take away the zeros for simplification and you get 5:5.

Look at it like a basic equation. Because it is. You can’t modify one side without doing the same to the other. Now, if you move +/-1 away from 5 - on both sides simultaneously - what do you get? 6:4.

Now you move +/-2 away from 5 on both sides. You get 7:3, and so on.

What those numbers mean is up to you (not really), but writing “this MU is -1” is shorthand for “60:40.”

....

Okay, so Aba flubbed so hard in the LF game against T . But I’ll call it a wash because T apparently doesn’t know that Link can murder heelslide.

Watching Link’s bombs disrupt ABK was lowkey hilarious.

About midway through the set, given how Aba was playing, he shoulda switched to Mewtwo. It’s a little more nerve wracking, but Mewtwo can actually deal with projectiles and, honestly, can cap Link’s stocks better than Bayo.

Let’s be real for a second, if Bayo can’t gimp a Link or a Ryu or a [insert heavy-ish character here], or kill them before 110-120% or so, they are gonna live forever. Noticeably both Brosinex and T this last week lived well into max rage because their opponents couldn’t take them out.

No one wants to fight a max rage Link.

Especially in the final game! All T needed was a Fair to kill at about 80%. His Link worked better than his Toon Link did, to a certain degree, when compared to his WFs match. His win on Choco was definitely his best win this tourney though, but it was not streamed, like the other 2 times he beat him.

 

[Minordeth]

It might have crossed his mind at some point, but Aba probably thought back to his set in Civil War and figured "nah".

That was my thought, but he’s also had quite a few successes over T with the Bayo, so maybe he thought he could clutch it.

But, going back in time, his Mewtwo baaaarely lost at Civil War. I feel like his ability to get in past Link’s strong midrange is better with Mewtwo, which is what we saw at Civil War. Chalk it up to sheer speed and the best dtilt in the game.

Actually, @TDK or Rizen , I’d assume Bayo is overall less fun for Link than Mewtwo, but I’m not sure. Seems like both could suck/be okay for different reasons.

Coincidentally, Aba lost a stock to a badly DI’d Fair at Civil War, too.

Especially in the final game! All T needed was a Fair to kill at about 80%. His Link worked better than his Toon Link did, to a certain degree, when compared to his WFs match. His win on Choco was definitely his best win this tourney though, but it was not streamed, like the other 2 times he beat him.

Yeah, I mean, I’m pretty sure Aba pressed a button to extend his hurt box on that Fair. And his DI was sus.

But! T’s bomb game was looking pretty good. Maybe playing Tink has had some crossover effect?

T uses the fear of rage to his advantage better than almost any other player.

 

[Rizen]

Someone mentioned Charizard's OoS game: Char has a great Usmash that's f6.

That was my thought, but he’s also had quite a few successes over T with the Bayo, so maybe he thought he could clutch it.

But, going back in time, his Mewtwo baaaarely lost at Civil War. I feel like his ability to get in past Link’s strong midrange is better with Mewtwo, which is what we saw at Civil War. Chalk it up to sheer speed and the best dtilt in the game.

Actually, @TDK or Rizen , I’d assume Bayo is overall less fun for Link than Mewtwo, but I’m not sure. Seems like both could suck/be okay for different reasons.

Coincidentally, Aba lost a stock to a badly DI’d Fair at Civil War, too.



Yeah, I mean, I’m pretty sure Aba pressed a button to extend his hurt box on that Fair. And his DI was sus.

But! T’s bomb game was looking pretty good. Maybe playing Tink has had some crossover effect?

T uses the fear of rage to his advantage better than almost any other player.

Bayo is a -1 or -1.5 for Link and Mewtwo is even.
The only time Link cares about reflectors is when he fires arrows; boomerang only has reflected wind which means a free bomb pull and bombs can be caught with DA. Mewtwo's tall and easy to wall. His featherweight means Link gets the most out of Dthrow combos and kills early. Bombs cancel full power shadow ball. With that said, Mewtwo has very strong traits in throws, combos and kill power.


Link can do a lot against Bayo. Bombs and returning boomerang disrupt her juggles and zoning with projectiles is a safe answer to WTi, but then she gets invulnerability from it and gets in :/. Link's long grab gets past Bayo's reach. T's playstyle makes opponents fear grabs and is good vs Bayo. Link is combo food but his fall speed helps him escape juggles by DI-ing away and down (that's what I do at least).

Bayo can also do a lot against Link. WTi effects Zair, seriously hurting Link's mid-range game. Link can't really tomahawk with his f7 jab and f12 grab so SH>FF F/B/Nair and Zair are his main options but slow and relatively easy to counter. Bullet climax also destroys Link's SH game so it's best if he stays grounded when not on platforms. Bat within is great for escaping Link's airdodge punishes/frame traps, including escaping Dthrow>Uair as a kill confirm, making it a 50/50. Bayo gimps Link, especially with Fair, but is very hard to gimp due to her upB hitbox beating Dair from underneath.
The main reason Bayo beats Link is her risk/reward ratio is much better than his. She always has an ace up her sleeve with WTi and gimping.

________________________
But sometimes mixing it up with a fresh character, even if thy have a worse MU, can be ideal. Look at Captain Zack losing to (I can't remember the player [edit, Komorikiri]) Roy. Aba's Mewtwo might have beaten T's Link, or maybe not.

_________________________
-1=slight disadvantage, -2=disadvantage, -3= counterpick and -4= hard counter/realistically can't be won.

 

[Iridium]

Someone mentioned Charizard's OoS game: Char has a great Usmash that's f6.

Bayo is a -1 or -1.5 for Link and Mewtwo is even.
The only time Link cares about reflectors is when he fires arrows; boomerang only has reflected wind which means a free bomb pull and bombs can be caught with DA. Mewtwo's tall and easy to wall. His featherweight means Link gets the most out of Dthrow combos and kills early. Bombs cancel full power shadow ball. With that said, Mewtwo has very strong traits in throws, combos and kill power.


Link can do a lot against Bayo. Bombs and returning boomerang disrupt her juggles and zoning with projectiles is a safe answer to WTi, but then she gets invulnerability from it and gets in :/. Link's long grab gets past Bayo's reach. T's playstyle makes opponents fear grabs and is good vs Bayo. Link is combo food but his fall speed helps him escape juggles by DI-ing away and down (that's what I do at least).

Bayo can also do a lot against Link. WTi effects Zair, seriously hurting Link's mid-range game. Link can't really tomahawk with his f7 jab and f12 grab so SH>FF F/B/Nair and Zair are his main options but slow and relatively easy to counter. Bullet climax also destroys Link's SH game so it's best if he stays grounded when not on platforms. Bat within is great for escaping Link's airdodge punishes/frame traps, including escaping Dthrow>Uair as a kill confirm, making it a 50/50. Bayo gimps Link, especially with Fair, but is very hard to gimp due to her upB hitbox beating Dair from underneath.
The main reason Bayo beats Link is her risk/reward ratio is much better than his. She always has an ace up her sleeve with WTi and gimping.

________________________
But sometimes mixing it up with a fresh character, even if thy have a worse MU, can be ideal. Look at Captain Zack losing to (I can't remember the player) Roy. Aba's Mewtwo might have beaten T's Link, or maybe not.

_________________________
-1=slight disadvantage, -2=disadvantage, -3= counterpick and -4= hard counter/realistically can't be won.

Komorikiri was the Roy to beat Captain Zack. Also, I would like to mention this was the second time T beat Aba's Bayo. He also last week at Rikabura 9 almost beat Aba with Toon Link, and like you mentioned, his Mewtwo was more dominant, although it only appeared for a game.

Finally, what do you think about Link vs. Mario, Rosa, Mega Man and ZSS, because T beat bAhuto (2nd time), Yuzu, Kameme (3rd/4th time I think) and Choco (3rd time I think)?

 

[Prince Koopa Jr]

Especially in the final game! All T needed was a Fair to kill at about 80%. His Link worked better than his Toon Link did, to a certain degree, when compared to his WFs match. His win on Choco was definitely his best win this tourney though, but it was not streamed, like the other 2 times he beat him.

That was my thought, but he’s also had quite a few successes over T with the Bayo, so maybe he thought he could clutch it.

But, going back in time, his Mewtwo baaaarely lost at Civil War. I feel like his ability to get in past Link’s strong midrange is better with Mewtwo, which is what we saw at Civil War. Chalk it up to sheer speed and the best dtilt in the game.

Actually, @TDK or Rizen , I’d assume Bayo is overall less fun for Link than Mewtwo, but I’m not sure. Seems like both could suck/be okay for different reasons.

Coincidentally, Aba lost a stock to a badly DI’d Fair at Civil War, too.



Yeah, I mean, I’m pretty sure Aba pressed a button to extend his hurt box on that Fair. And his DI was sus.

But! T’s bomb game was looking pretty good. Maybe playing Tink has had some crossover effect?

T uses the fear of rage to his advantage better than almost any other player.

T really has that intimidation factor when he has so much rage. I feel like Aba couldn't figure out a way to kill him quick enough.

 

[MERPIS]

T really has that intimidation factor when he has so much rage. I feel like Aba couldn't figure out a way to kill him quick enough.

Abadango seems as if he has no idea how to play Mewtwo at all any more, he always folds to someone! Wadi on the other hand, destroys those same people.

 

[J0eyboi]

Abadango seems as if he has no idea how to play Mewtwo at all any more, he always folds to someone! Wadi on the other hand, destroys those same people.

Read, please. Aba was playing Bayo. He's still at least good enough at M2 to beat Kome with it.

 

[MERPIS]

Read, please. Aba was playing Bayo. He's still at least good enough at M2 to beat Kome with it.

woah we have a salty boi over here. His mewtwo's still dookie compared to Wadi's Mewtwo though, and beating Kome isn't that big of a feat. Not even ranked on the global PGR, only 19th on the japan global rankings.

 

[Rizen]

Finally, what do you think about Link vs. Mario, Rosa, Mega Man and ZSS, because T beat bAhuto (2nd time), Yuzu, Kameme (3rd/4th time I think) and Choco (3rd time I think)?

Link vs...

Mario:
Mario destroys Link close range, Utilt gets an early 30% and Link has no way to escape his juggles. Mario has a great burst game and his Usmash discourages FF Nair. Cape is one of the better reflectors vs Link because it is fast and also flips Link around.
Link outcamps Mario and always forces the approach. This is the usual reason Link doesn't get destroyed in neutral by 90% of the cast. Mario's small so Zair isn't great against him but it and grab can't be flipped by cape (tethers) so it has uses. Link wins in disjoint and power.
It's fairly even but Mario has less commitment and a good enough approach game he probably wins +1.

Rosa:
It's another slight loss for Link. While Link has a good answer to Luma walling and gravity pull with Zair and bombs, Rosa has a good answer to his zoning with a low DA, crouch and good burst options. Link traditionally walls tall characters more easily than small ones but Rosa gets past that. When Rosa has the advantage she can abuse Link in ways few characters can with disjointed rings that safely eat bombs and Dair. Rings also gimp Link past his disjointed upB. Link can kill Rosa very early with a read and his Dthrow combos work well vs her if Luma's not in the picture.
It ends up being a very momentum based game where Rosa controls mid range spacing yet has to approach. Link's generally at a disadvantage but very tanky and hits hard. If Rosa does her usual Uair at the ledge trick Link can Ftilt it which covers 2 frames too so both characters do not want to lose stage control. In the end Link needs to outplay a little with reads but Rosa can bread and butter Link to death so she has a slight advantage.

I haven't played vs Megaman offline so IDK.

IMO ZSS is even but I've seen cat argue it to be +.5 for Link. Link's grab is better than ZSS' by far and he has his own Dthrow combos. ZSS can't burst Link as well as other top tiers because her lack of disjoint and f16 grab although her Zair outclasses Link's so there's a weird element to mid range. ZSS of course juggles hard and wins at close range but her CQC isn't as punishing as other top tiers. Link's projectiles beat ZSS' paralizer easy and force her to approach. Why I think it's even and not slightly in Link's favor is ZSS can adapt much faster than Link and has no real commitment sans grabs. ZSS is obviously faster and more mobile yet gets outcamped. Both characters can wreck offstage with a read but also have good answers to gimps when recovering. Both can kill early in this volatile MU. It's another MU where Link gets outplayed a little but his tankiness helps make up the deficit.

 

[J0eyboi]

woah we have a salty boi over here. His mewtwo's still dookie compared to Wadi's Mewtwo though, and beating Kome isn't that big of a feat. Not even ranked on the global PGR, only 19th on the japan global rankings.

I am indeed salty that you wouldn't bother to read anything other than "a player I don't like did poorly" and then make completely unfounded and irrelevant statements based on that. Not only did you fail to contribute to the discussion, you didn't give any reasoning or evidence for why you think Aba's M2 is worse than WaDi's, which at least could've turned into a new topic of discussion. I am not, however, salty that you think Aba's bad, I couldn't care less. P

I'm aware beating Kome isn't a great feat, that was just the first example that came to mind. Still, it's worth noting Kome beat Aba's Bayo handily game 1. His Mewtwo won both the next 2 games.

 

[MercuryPenny]

Mario has a great burst game

eh. it's closer to average all things considered; his dash speed and dash grab are both pretty standard while his dash attack isn't really worth considering. ever

and if anyone mentions his air speed im gonna slap them with a folding chair

 

[Rizen]

eh. it's closer to average all things considered; his dash speed and dash grab are both pretty standard while his dash attack isn't really worth considering. ever

and if anyone mentions his air speed im gonna slap them with a folding chair

What makes it good is the adaptability and speed. Dash grab leads to a good chunk of damage from Uair followups. RAR Bair is 11f total, 5 js plus 6 Bair and it actually spaces well. If you SH he can reverse Usmash. He has all the bases covered.

 

[The-Technique]

I am indeed salty that you wouldn't bother to read anything other than "a player I don't like did poorly" and then make completely unfounded and irrelevant statements based on that. Not only did you fail to contribute to the discussion, you didn't give any reasoning or evidence for why you think Aba's M2 is worse than WaDi's, which at least could've turned into a new topic of discussion. I am not, however, salty that you think Aba's bad, I couldn't care less. P

I'm aware beating Kome isn't a great feat, that was just the first example that came to mind. Still, it's worth noting Kome beat Aba's Bayo handily game 1. His Mewtwo won both the next 2 games.

Beating Aba's Bayo but not his Mewtwo? That's surprising. Is Mewtwo considered harder for Shulk than Bayo?

 

[ARGHETH]

Beating Aba's Bayo but not his Mewtwo? That's surprising. Is Mewtwo considered harder for Shulk than Bayo?

I don't really know, but Shulk mains seem to put Bayo as harder.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

I'm super late on this but someone asked about Zard vs. Bayo and I'll admit....it's as bad as the previous person said it was.
Zard's big and his terrible traction means sitting in shield is a no go, anything with super armor kills his momentum even fly simply goes up and a touch to the left or right depending on direction.
Flamethrower beats out witch time but can't beat out witch twist and since witch twist is almost unreactable it often means that Zard ends up running right into it with his predictable approaches.
Zard like most super heavies is combo food, the thing is though zard typically has tools to prevent the opponent setting up the combo in the first place. Trouble is like ZSS and Rosa, Bayo can easily get around this. Between disjointed Luma shenanigans, flip kick mix-up trajectories and Bullet Arts Zard can't use his Super Armor B specials or his fast but mid-range tilts to keep those characters from bouncing him all over the arena. Being big also means SDI doesn't work particularly well either.
I agree it's +2 or +3 for Bayo, if they get unlucky they might find themselves on the receiving end of a nasty utilt or usmash but it's unlikely that a pro player would even put themselves in that position.

 

[Galaxeon]

ZSS can't burst Link as well as other top tiers because her lack of disjoint and f16 grab ...
... her CQC isn't as punishing as other top tiers...

Er, what? A lack of disjoints, and a poor punish game in CQC? Really? Have you seen those hitboxes (maybe you meant that Link has bigger disjoints in some areas)?
I can see the match-up being even too, but that is the best case scenario for Link, and I don't think it's for these reasons.

Also I know this was just to start the discussion but T beating Choco 2-1 is just Japan being Japan and T being T.

... Both characters can wreck offstage with a read but also have good answers to gimps when recovering.

Both characters edgeguarding game is below average IMO (for different reasons: usually, by no means one read is enough to gimp ZSS for good in spite of what some people have been preaching for three years, but edgeguarding Link is not easy either for ZSS as she doesn't have any decent edgeguarding aerials bar bair). Both should play the ledge game, which can be lethal with the correct reaction/read. Of course ZSS has a way easier time denying the ledge and/or recovering fast.

It's another MU where Link gets outplayed a little but his tankiness helps make up the deficit.

I have trouble believing tankiness can matter that much against a character like ZSS. It does grant Link access to rage, but rage is a double-edge sword.

I do think Link can give her quite a run for her money due to bombs, sheer kill power and his fastfaller nature though, hence why I think the match-up is no worse than even, but I don't handle the match-up that well and I dislike it quite a lot, so I could be biased. Top players usually think it's either +1 for ZSS or even.

 

[Iridium]

Er, what? A lack of disjoints, and a poor punish game in CQC? Really? Have you seen those hitboxes (maybe you meant that Link has bigger disjoints in some areas)?
I can see the match-up being even too, but that is the best case scenario for Link, and I don't think it's for these reasons.

Also I know this was just to start the discussion but T beating Choco 2-1 is just Japan being Japan and T being T.



Both characters edgeguarding game is below average IMO (for different reasons: usually, by no means one read is enough to gimp ZSS for good in spite of what some people have been preaching for three years, but edgeguarding Link is not easy either for ZSS as she doesn't have any decent edgeguarding aerials bar bair). Both should play the ledge game, which can be lethal with the correct reaction/read. Of course ZSS has a way easier time denying the ledge and/or recovering fast.



I have trouble believing tankiness can matter that much against a character like ZSS. It does grant Link access to rage, but rage is a double-edge sword.

I do think Link can give her quite a run for her money due to bombs, sheer kill power and his fastfaller nature though, hence why I think the match-up is no worse than even, but I don't handle the match-up that well and I dislike it quite a lot, so I could be biased. Top players usually think it's either +1 for ZSS or even.

I agree thoroughly, as Link does somewhat decently against certain top tiers (I.e. ). T now has three wins on Choco from what I remember along with a win on shky, so now I wonder how he would do against Nairo or Marss at this point (hopefully phenomenal)

 

[Frihetsanka]

I agree thoroughly, as Link does somewhat decently against certain top tiers (I.e. ).

I'd say it's a -1 vs all of them. Very doable, but the Link player is still at a slight disadvantage.

 

[Rizen]

I agree thoroughly, as Link does somewhat decently against certain top tiers (I.e. ). T now has three wins on Choco from what I remember along with a win on shky, so now I wonder how he would do against Nairo or Marss at this point (hopefully phenomenal)

IMO all those are -1 for Link besides Mewtwo, who is even.

Er, what? A lack of disjoints, and a poor punish game in CQC? Really? Have you seen those hitboxes (maybe you meant that Link has bigger disjoints in some areas)?
I can see the match-up being even too, but that is the best case scenario for Link, and I don't think it's for these reasons.

ZSS' normals don't have good disjoints, her specials do. Link's slow but if he preemptively slashes his sword beats most of her attacks.
I never said ZSS has a "poor punish game", I said she's not as punishing as other top tiers. Part of it is tool interactions; Link should always be spacing ZSS so boost kick OoS isn't too big an issue. ZSS' jab doesn't lead into anything, her grab's slow and Utilt's good but doesn't have guaranteed combos (correct me if I'm wrong). ZSS can ladder Link but he gets that from everyone and she's not as hard to land against as Rosa or Cloud, who have long lasting huge disjoints. ZSS has good punishes but not as good. Other top tiers have things like Fox's vortex, bayo's everything, Cloud's Uair/LCS, Sheik's Fair chains, etc.

Bombs are great in that MU. I agree ZSS is better at ledge trapping. TBT Link's ledge trapping is on the weaker side due to his slow attacks and JS. He can't SH>Nair on reaction like Sheik and his grab is too slow to punish ledge stands. He has to make a read.

 

[MERPIS]

I never said ZSS has a "poor punish game", I said she's not as punishing as other top tiers.

ZSS punish game is literally all she has, her neutral is garbage, her punish game is actually really decent

 

[Minordeth]

Someone mentioned Charizard's OoS game: Char has a great Usmash that's f6.

Yessss! Also, Usmash hits in front of him on frame 6. His AA and OOS game is pretty strong. Helps make Cloud not awful.

Bayo is a -1 or -1.5 for Link and Mewtwo is even.
The only time Link cares about reflectors is when he fires arrows; boomerang only has reflected wind which means a free bomb pull and bombs can be caught with DA. Mewtwo's tall and easy to wall. His featherweight means Link gets the most out of Dthrow combos and kills early. Bombs cancel full power shadow ball. With that said, Mewtwo has very strong traits in throws, combos and kill power.

Link can do a lot against Bayo. Bombs and returning boomerang disrupt her juggles and zoning with projectiles is a safe answer to WTi, but then she gets invulnerability from it and gets in :/. Link's long grab gets past Bayo's reach. T's playstyle makes opponents fear grabs and is good vs Bayo. Link is combo food but his fall speed helps him escape juggles by DI-ing away and down (that's what I do at least).

Bayo can also do a lot against Link. WTi effects Zair, seriously hurting Link's mid-range game. Link can't really tomahawk with his f7 jab and f12 grab so SH>FF F/B/Nair and Zair are his main options but slow and relatively easy to counter. Bullet climax also destroys Link's SH game so it's best if he stays grounded when not on platforms. Bat within is great for escaping Link's airdodge punishes/frame traps, including escooaping Dthrow>Uair as a kill confirm, making it a 50/50. Bayo gimps Link, especially with Fair, but is very hard to gimp due to her upB hitbox beating Dair from underneath.
The main reason Bayo beats Link is her risk/reward ratio is much better than his. She always has an ace up her sleeve with WTi and gimping.

Thanks for the rundown!

________________________
But sometimes mixing it up with a fresh character, even if thy have a worse MU, can be ideal. Look at Captain Zack losing to (I can't remember the player [edit, Komorikiri]) Roy. Aba's Mewtwo might have beaten T's Link, or maybe not.

_________________________

And that’s basically what it be in this case. Aba had two problems against T: he wasn’t closing stocks, and he wasn’t getting in enough. He is rather good at getting in with his Mewtwo and capitalizing on Nair/dtilt conversions, which is probably why he prefers M2 for Fox and ZSS.

Would he have won? Dunno. The last time he played T with Mewtwo, at Civil War, in Game 3 he took 26% and two stocked the man, but played shook anyway.

-1=slight disadvantage, -2=disadvantage, -3= counterpick and -4= hard counter/realistically can't be won.

Pretty much. Yup. That’s how I’ve seen it for yeeeeaaars in the rest of the FGC.

Abadango seems as if he has no idea how to play Mewtwo at all any more, he always folds to someone! Wadi on the other hand, destroys those same people.

Read, please. Aba was playing Bayo. He's still at least good enough at M2 to beat Kome with it.

Uh... let’s not underrate Aba’s Mewtwo here. He’s still the only one that has beaten Salem’s Bayo.

He uses Mewtwo in specific match-ups: Fox, ZSS, Bayo, and a few others.

He had a brief spell when he tried to sub-in MK when he lost confidence in his Mewtwo, but it’s swung back around. Aba uses more tech than WaDi does as well: platform cancels liberally, wave bounce baits, and Nair/disable shenanigans.

He still knows how to use Mewtwo.

The main thing that’s suffered is his mechanical execution. I expect it to get better as he goes, but he misses Nair-FS-Disable occasionally, forgets to count his specials with Bayo and SDs, misses platform cancels every now and then, and noticeably makes general flubs.

Neither Mewtwo nor Bayo are particular easy to play, and switching between technique sets seems to mess with him a bit.

 

[Bigbomb2]

Some pretty pessimistic people here. Should probably ask in the Link discord for more Matchup information.

TBT Link's ledge trapping is on the weaker side due to his slow attacks and JS. He can't SH>Nair on reaction like Sheik and his grab is too slow to punish ledge stands. He has to make a read.

Maybe if you're just standing there. You usually should be implementing your bombs to force them to react. If you can't grab them, jab them back off. If you're just waiting, then you'll probably be doing a read.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Btw, ESAM just released a video about Cloud in doubles. Any thoughts?

Also, there is supposed to be a Smash Bros presentation at E3 this year. Who is excited about it?

 

[JustCallMeJon]

Btw, ESAM just released a video about Cloud in doubles. Any thoughts?

Also, there is supposed to be a Smash Bros presentation at E3 this year. Who is excited about it?

Seems like that Smash 5 is going to be more of a sequal than a port..

It will interesting who will be invited in this tournment. ZeRo returning? Hungrybox winning I hope? I dunno..

The question is....Since it is a tournament, will Reggie and Nintendo focus on the casual ruleset (Items on and many stages introduced) or the competitive ruleset (No items and certain stages introduced. I know this might be a new game but they must have some knowledge that Final Destination and Battlefield will obviously be legal stages...I know they will alway appear on every smash game) since the competitive Smash community is huge and Nintendo has sponsored a lot of Smash tournaments (ex: EVO, GENESIS, APEX)
If it is a casual mindset, I wonder and interest about the new items introduced and how they will interact in that tournament or something.
If they choose a competitve mindset (unlikely but still), I wonder what legal stages will they choose.
New characters battle in the tournament will be very fun.

Otherwise 7 Top Smashers that I wish they could enter that tournament:
*ZeRo
*Nairo
*Mew2King
*Mango (He's not very friendly on Smash games outside of Melee but I wish to see him play outside of Smash Melee)
*SuperGirlKels
*Hungrybox
*Axe/Amsa/Alpharad (Alpha is not a top Smasher but he commonly focuses on Smash on his Youtube.)

*Edit: Forgive me with my constant edits. I need to double check a lot.

 

[Prince Koopa Jr]

Seems like that Smash 5 is going to be more of a sequal than a port..

It will interesting who will be invited in this tournment. ZeRo returning? Hungrybox winning I hope? I dunno..

The question is....Since it is a tournament, will Reggie and Nintendo focused on the casual ruleset (Items on and many stages introduced) or the competitive ruleset (No items and certain stages introduced. I know this might be a new game but they must have some knowledge that Final Destination and Battlefield will obviously be legal stages...I know they will alway appear on every smash game) since the competitive Smash community is huge and Nintendo has sponsored a lot of Smash tournaments (ex: EVO, GENESIS, APEX)
If it is a casual mindset, I wonder if new items will interact in that tournament or something.
If they choose a competitve mindset (unlikely but still), I wonder what legal stages will they choose.
New characters will be very interesting...

It'll be interesting to see which characters make the roster for smash 5. Theres a lot of speculation about what the cast could look like.

 

[The_Bookworm]

I hope the presentation will be as hype as...


THE SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT! MEGA MAAAAAAAAANNNN!!!!!!

 

[Das Koopa]

FEBRUARY DATA WRITE-UP

Monthly character movements:

Bayonetta +2.0%
Ryu +1%
Captain Falcon +0.6%
Peach +0.5%
Rosalina & Luma +0.4%
Diddy Kong +0.4%
Lucina +0.4%
R.O.B. +0.3%
Greninja +0.3%
Cloud +0.3%
Mewtwo +0.3%
Corrin +0.1%
Mega Man +0.1%
Luigi = 1.7%
Toon Link = 1.4%
Sheik -0.1%
Samus -0.1%
Duck Hunt -0.1%
Yoshi -0.1%
Fox -0.1%
Lucario -0.1%
Zero Suit Samus -0.1%
Ike -0.2%
Ness -0.2%
Wario -0.4%
Donkey Kong -0.4%
Meta Knight -0.5%
Pikachu -0.5%
Mr. Game & Watch -0.6%
Sonic -0.7%
Mario -0.7%
Marth -0.9%
Other -0.9%

I'm currently in the middle of a big data update as I finalize my Bowser Jr. article and prepare for an analysis of Cloud in doubles. I intend to do a lot of things today, but I'm currently at this pitstop before I go over March's tournaments & any character data collected from it specifically.

Here, we see that Bayonetta has somewhat recovered, but still exists under the 10% line 2 months in accounting for very strong events like G5 and Frostbite. Not much to say about it besides that, as there are still a lot of newfound oddities.

-Sheik has recovered her position and stalled her decline after the first half of Phase 7

-Diddy Kong has predictably declined as ZeRo is no longer competing but remains a definitive 4th

-Duck Hunt has been Top 20 for two months now, placing at 17th in February and 18th in January. Raito was able to carry the character's momentum from GENESIS 5, presumably.

-A lot of characters are stagnating. Lucario's poor track record is well-established in spite of his tier position and penchant for good results, but very few people use the character. A similar problem exists with Olimar where their numbers are not consistent with their historical peaks.

-Other took another decline, but is still well above the absolute lows the category experienced in late 2017.

While we're fast past the point of rule changes to singles (more on doubles in an upcoming post...) I do think there are some noteworthy data points with Bayonetta right now. I think the only reason she has not retained her numbers from late 2017 is because the number of national level events featuring Bayonetta players has noticeably stagnated. Regionals featuring a small pool of top level players are more common than the flood of major events 2017 gave us last year that gave frequent insights into peak tournament data.

In that regard, the upcoming event in Vegas is really hallow in telling us the same thing Frostbite or GENESIS might say. It stands to say that the burst of events from May-June will be the most important in really determining where the metagame has landed:

-GOML 2018
-MomoCon 2018
-Smash N' Splash 4
-2GG: Hyrule Saga
-CEO 2018

These five events take place in mid-late Spring before about a 20 day break leading into Smash Factor, Low Tier City 6, EVO, SSC, etc, which will be long after we know Smash5 's details and will likely be a ceremonial post-PGRv5 finale to the scene before it collectively shifts to Smash 5. The events listed will give us a good idea of what the last events will be like.

Vegas' event may also provide an answer on Leo vs. Tweek, which is probably the most interesting build-up narrative at the moment as both probably have the most momentum to be #1 with Dabuz as a suitable dark horse if he adapts to Tweek.

My plans in the few hours/days:

-Post this
-Collect March tourney data
-Score it all
-Update tournament database to last weekend
-Update PR database as best I can so I have an actual resource to work with for future progress, as my neglect of the database has led to it being useless for data collection (which is the opposite of my goal with it)
-Finish the Jr. article so it can be published on Monday. It will be 2 weeks late, but Smash 5 changed a lot of my plans.
-Begin preliminary work on Cloud data analysis in doubles so it can be published on either April 2nd or April 9th.

Spoiler: Full Results, February 2018

Bayonetta: 340.25
Cloud: 258
Sheik: 257.5
Diddy Kong: 233
Fox: 190.25
Sonic: 162
Mario: 157.5
Zero Suit Samus: 152
Rosalina & Luma: 139.75
Ryu: 139
Mewtwo: 111.25
Meta Knight: 82
Corrin: 80.5
Marth: 77.5
Pikachu: 70
Peach: 60.5
Duck Hunt: 59
Ness: 58
Luigi: 57.5
Captain Falcon: 51.5
Greninja: 48
Toon Link: 47
Samus: 43.5
Lucina: 40
R.O.B.: 39.75
Mega Man: 38.5
Ike: 38
Donkey Kong: 35.5
Mr. Game & Watch: 35
Wario: 32
Villager: 32
Pac-Man: 31
Lucario: 30.5
Yoshi: 30
Bowser: 28
Shulk: 27.5
Little Mac: 23
Olimar: 21.5
Lucas: 19
Roy: 15
Pit: 13
Zelda: 12
Link: 11
Charizard: 11
Robin: 8
Dr. Mario: 6.5
Palutena: 6
Wii Fit Trainer: 5
Falco: 4
Jigglypuff: 4
Bowser Jr.: 3
King Dedede: 1
Mii Gunner: 1

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jks0EtmeNemKsm2rXzYf8RB3D43-Ru23ypx_DOnQPDY/edit?usp=sharing

Previous Month: https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-70#post-21929143

 

[The_Bookworm]

Duck Hunt, Pac Man, and Samus seems surprisingly high. Ganon and (especially) Link seems surprisingly low. Cool to see Rob rising up though.

It is also cool of Ike to hold the fort in results despite negative views on him. Robin seems surprisingly low, although that could be supported with his unpopularity. Skorpio's high placing in Midwest may help alleviate it, but Link is still low so maybe not....

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

The Smash 5 Invitational tourney has me in a good mood, it came out of left field. I watched a few videos on if Smash 5 had an E3 tourney before this was announced today. One of the opinions I heard is that they may focus on the casual aspect and allow items, timers, and the eventual non-legal stages again since E3 is there to show off as much of the game as possible to attract fans by showing many different parts of the game that will be available to show variety.

Although there is a hope for slight changes to their ruleset or maybe even a full overhaul to it judging by the Nintendo Versus Twitter and the recent dialogue between Hungrybox and Reggie after the Smash N' Splash 3 callout. I'm excited for what players will be invited.

 

[Rizen]

Some pretty pessimistic people here. Should probably ask in the Link discord for more Matchup information.



Maybe if you're just standing there. You usually should be implementing your bombs to force them to react. If you can't grab them, jab them back off. If you're just waiting, then you'll probably be doing a read.

You usually don't have time for bombs. After launching someone all I have time to go for is the 2 frame FTilt 80% of the time. If they're farther out I'll toss a bomb up by the ledge and go for intercepting with arrows/Nair. The problems with bombs on the ledge are they take 40 frames to generate, if you plant one the collision detection goes away and when forward thrown they take 1 frame to collide and detonate on f2 so normal ledge getups can PS them. The best method I've found is to throw one upward at the ledge so it covers jumps, still has collision and forces them to get off the ledge then react.

What do you mean pessimistic? What top tiers do you think Link does better than -1 against?

 

[The_Bookworm]

2GGaming just announced an event called "Switchfest", which features Arms, Pokken Tournament Dx, and Splatoon 2. It also features a SSB4 bracket that is Shulk themed, with a Shulk round robin.

 

[Bigbomb2]

What do you mean pessimistic? What top tiers do you think Link does better than -1 against?

I personally find Fox, Diddy, ZSS, and Mewtwo closer to even than -1. Every single Link finds these MU's different. And for bombs at ledge, yeah, if they already grabbed ledge, a bomb pull is just letting them back up.

 

[Finh009]

Sumabato 24 is Tonight!

Featuring:

Raito
Shuton
Towa
Kome
HIKARU
Masashi
2GG | Komorikiri
Tea
Kie
Kisha
shky
Zaki
Parme
Rizeasu
kept
Sigma
takera
Taiheita
Eim
Ri-ma
taranito

KEN is also on the entrant list but I don't see him in pools.

Pools: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Tq_ithM_NNr5sR9K3IjBmNl9Ag/edit#gid=291685464
Bracket: (Update When Available)
Stream: https://www.twitch.tv/shi_gaming

 

[The_Bookworm]

First FOW, now Taiheita? This is an interesting weekend indeed.

 

[Iridium]

First FOW, now Taiheita? This is an interesting weekend indeed.

I mean, Taiheita is still ranked 28th on the JPR, which isn't too bad for a decline. A bit sad for being Top 10 at one point though. But I predict a Top 16 placement from him. And Ri-ma/Sigma too.

 

[The_Bookworm]

SML: Battle for Vegas (165 entrants) (A Tier)

PGR'ed Players
Salem
Nairo
MKLeo
Tweek
Larry Lurr
VoiD
Mistake
Ally
Cosmos
Captain Zack
Konga
Charliedaking
Fatality
falln
Light
K9sbruce
AC

Notable, Not PGR'ed, Players
Eon
FOW
Karna
Captain L
Xzax
BestNess
Mr. ConCon
Brosinex
Z
S2H
Dynamo
pu55yking
Taternator
Kiraflax
ven
AEMehr

 

[Prince Koopa Jr]

First FOW, now Taiheita? This is an interesting weekend indeed.

It sure is. Seeing some of these other players attending makes me excited because some of them aren't PGR players, so there is a lot to be gained by defeating a notable player.

 

[Finh009]

Sumabato 24 (233 Entrants) (Kansai, Japan)
Bracket: https://challonge.com/Sumabato24T

1st. HIKARU
2nd. Masashi
3rd. takera
4th. Hakadama
5th. 2GG | Komorikiri
5th. Eim
7th. bt.yamato
7th. bAhuto

Spoiler: Rest of Top 16

9th. Yuzu
9th. Tea
9th. Zaki
9th. Lickey★
13th. Taiheita
13th. Shogun
13th. Selcia
13th. Kisha

 

[ぱみゅ]

Lickey is a Meta Knight, not Pacman, and I'm not sure if Selcia still uses MK too or is a full-time Cloud now.