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Official 4BR Tier List V4 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

Shaya

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Shaya Shaya - I’d imagine you know this, but I haven’t read it as confirmed, but her infamous rage combo isn’t actually a sure thing either, correct?

I’m basically figuring that people forget that in order to not die off the top when ZSS has rage that they need to not DI up, which is what they can do at earlier percents to escape the 7th hit, but rather DI in and towards her, which may not kill depending.
Really character dependent and also hitbox (usually up air) positioning.
Olimar and jiggs can't really avoid dthrow uair up-b koing them at 10-20% with rage. First hit of up-b won't be tapping them after the up air, and then they die.

In theory surviving it involves not falling out of it or falling out completely after the first hit (or sometimes later hits, depending on vertical height); as you say, DI into them can save you.

It might be more accurate to say, it shouldn't generally be real on any stage other than Town & City or with platform support (i.e. Battlefield); this doesn't apply to some of the super unfortunate ones (e.g. Oli/Jiggs) or if you get the stars aligning*

* Stars aligning is a strong feasiblility; if you're hitting them with an aerial in such a way that you jumping gets you to their vertical position or higher while they're in knockback, that would be stars aligning and can involve anyone dying (up-b will be rising further as the hits are coming out, knockback overlap occurs with tricky results that I suspect pops people up higher when they fall out than otherwise).

P.S. Nairo is a really good stargazer.
 
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Minordeth

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Really character dependent and also hitbox (usually up air) positioning.
Olimar and jiggs can't really avoid dthrow uair up-b koing them at 10-20% with rage. First hit of up-b won't be tapping them after the up air, and then they die.

In theory surviving it involves not falling out of it or falling out completely after the first hit (or sometimes later hits, depending on vertical height); as you say, DI into them can save you.

It might be more accurate to say, it shouldn't generally be real on any stage other than Town & City or with platform support (i.e. Battlefield); this doesn't apply to some of the super unfortunate ones (e.g. Oli/Jiggs) or if you get the stars aligning*

* Stars aligning is a strong feasiblility; if you're hitting them with an aerial in such a way that you jumping gets you to their vertical position or higher while they're in knockback, that would be stars aligning and can involve anyone dying (up-b will be rising further as the hits are coming out, knockback overlap occurs with tricky results that I suspect pops people up higher when they fall out than otherwise).

P.S. Nairo is a really good stargazer.
That makes sense. Nairo is a very “feel” oriented player and has said before he just can sense when something will combo or not. It probably helps him with his astronomical hobby.

Actually, the DI thing goes a bit deeper. I believe just in the last six months(?) Zero was on Nairo’s stream and was literally asking him how to DI boost kick. My general suspicion, which I believe is correct, is that most players - outside of ESAM - don’t know how and when to DI boost kick to not die.

DI changing for the same move as percentage varies seems to trip a lot of players up.
 

MH-Jin

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But I wasn't talking about how rage benefits her, every smasher knows how rage "benefits" her.
A jab that frequently does not link and isn't safe on hit when buffering shield can be a big problem - the fact it's frame 1 doesn't change that - just for the most part people aren't prepared/learned enough in the match up to abuse this.
Jab1 mix ups when the option of it actually linking/comboing properly is no longer there loses a lot of it's panic response pressure.

TO BE FAIR, it's generally only apparent in the match ups she loses in / gets rage janked by her multihits due to poorly tweeked in-hit animations/hurtboxes of Cloud/Bayo.
That's definitely fair... Especially with characters like Cloud that beat her in neutral/on stage. I would say overall though...as polarizing ZSS may be sometimes...rage has more benefits to her rather than the negative effects along with people not always knowing how to do her stuff
 

Galaxeon

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Apr 27, 2015
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Re: Rage messing up Zero Suit

It's match up dependent, but with highish rage she loses the ability for her jabs to link (this can be really bad, just very few people are ready to smash attack her for it; of course she can not do subsequent hits of her jab too, but you can't really 'react' to her jab not working)
Also her up tilt (very annoying).
Jab with rage is not as simple as "working... then not working anymore". You have some window to delay jab2 and jab3 and adjust the timing the way you want while keeping it true. On floatier characters, Jab123 is not even true at low percents. I don't have the courage to search for VODs but you'll often see Nairo delaying the third hit against Mewtwo for exemple as soon as 10% because he's so floaty and jab is so quick that the third hit would come out too soon otherwise.
It's character, weight, DI, percent dependent... well basically everything dependent, so you sort of have to "feel" it, but assuming the spacing is right and you don't end up crossing up your opponent it should properly connect at almost any percent when you adjust the timing. Maybe something like Luigi's nair can make your delay end up trading with jab, but that's specific.

Also with rage she gains some mixups and true combos with jab1 (into boost kick and stuff) with a wider window, I feel that's still underdevelopped.

Uptilt (and Boost kick OOS, obviously) is much more of an issue than Jab when it comes to rage. Though I'm not even sure why it can also let the opponent fall at random percents without rage. I think this has something to do with the characters' momentum when hit (this could be why perfect pivot utilt doesn't work from the ground...)

Shaya Shaya I’m basically figuring that people forget that in order to not die off the top when ZSS has rage that they need to not DI up, which is what they can do at earlier percents to escape the 7th hit, but rather DI in and towards her, which may not kill depending.
DI in and towards ZSS is very risky and rarely worth it from my experience. Either when you pop out of the move or when you get hit by the last hit, you'll be send in the direction she's facing most of the time, so DIing the other way is basically the same as keeping the vertical trajectory instead of "lowering the curve" by DIing away. Unless you're very close to the side blastzones, you usually never want to DI towards her. This is just my impression from my experience though so maybe I'm wrong and someone with a better understanding of how rage can affect DI can provide more insight.

On the topic of ZSS' place in the metagame, I find that her case with the dynamics of her match-ups over time to be a very interesting one. I feel her future will really depend on how her most crucial match-ups will keep evolving. And by that I mean against the top 4, which also happen to be probably her 4 worst match-ups (yeah yeah there's always Pikachu but... he's not that relevant anymore/yet) : Diddy, Sheik, Bayo and Cloud. The former two seem to have gotten better, especially Sheik as time goes by and with a better appreciation of how rage works. I feel the current stage-list/banlist system skew the match-up towards her,. It's stressful for both sides and it's no secrets that Nairo hates it for example, but it went from being terrible to actually more evenish for some. Diddy, while obviously still a losing match-up, also seems to be less worse than before, mainly because of how boost kick works so well against him. By contrast, how Bayo and Cloud randomly fall out at the most crucial times is just heartbreaking and the two seems to get closer to -2. Cloud's dumb aerials are just overwhelming and well, Bayo is Bayo and she's constantly getting better these days.

Maybe the same can be said for other chars but I feel how ZSS deals with these 4 will shift her future. Quite frankly while I'm more than happy that she got a rise on the PGR, sixth feels a bit high at the moment? Sonic, Fox and Rosa don't seem to struggle as much with the top 4, or maybe it's because I don't play them. But hey, at least she's finally a well-established top ten threat, and not even Esam or no one can deny her placem... oh, well...

Also glad to see Choco is still keeping up the good work and has basically been a top-5 player this season in Japan (probably second of his region after KEN). His neutral completly blows me away and is not something you ever see in the US.
 

Shaya

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Yeah, delaying can help, but its difficult to know the exact jab timing for every character.
Jab1 combos with rage are "kinda" a nice thing; but it is super tricky and hence hard to rely on - it's a specific hitbox that can allow such stuff, you tend to not be able to hit confirm and know exactly what you've gotten.

In terms of DI in on rage up-b, well it isn't exactly what I do when I'm vsing ZSS as they attempt their rage jank - I tend to just not press anything at all; except for away and/or down towards the end if I'm at normal KO%. You want to DI the up airs 'properly' as well of course.
Roofies rarely work on AIs - because they're designed not to press anything lol. Shame they die to the final hit off the top at like 50% due to said lack of pressing anything.
 
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KakuCP9

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P.S. Nairo is a really good stargazer
Nonsense! Nairo doesn't just look up at the sky and wait for the stars to align! He reaches out to them with a laggy tether grab and pulls them together to form what ever shape he desires! Logic and reason be damned! He manifests destiny and shapes it with his own two hands! Don't undersell his exploits!!!!


On another note, Choco's neutral based style is probably healthier for the average ZSS player to follow.
 

Vyrnx

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My general suspicion, which I believe is correct, is that most players - outside of ESAM - don’t know how and when to DI boost kick to not die.
Fwiw, Esam in his last set vs Nairo (UGC lol) had some obscenely bad DI on boost kick, and in one of his 2017 sets vs Marss. I can't say for sure what player is the best to watch when it comes to DIing boost kick, but the player I'd watch for general anti-ZSS play is KEN. I might make a post about this soon.

Edit: actually, a more recent example of Esam vs Nairo from Smash Con 2017 (Smash Masters)
https://youtu.be/OZkF4TzYW7k
Around 32:00 in this video you can see exactly how not to DI boost kick.
 
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D

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I personally think Yoshi is still a little bit too high, he should not be above Shulk, ROB, Robin and Samus. He should not go to E tier but still. I mean his results are stagnant and shrinking. His grab game is close to garbage and his recovery kind of bad. His out of sheild options are kind of poor as well and his defense options ( roll / sidestep ) are no good either.
The Smash 4 Comprehensive match up is outdated because of a new tier list. It still uses the old V3 Backroom Tier List, but that is okay. Pikachu's match ups are way up and off the charts :laugh:. May the Smash 4 M.E.T.A continue to advance.
No backseat modding either.

Just click the report button. He's already been warned in this case so no need to dwell on a throwaway comment.
I apologize if I went a bit too far on that post. It is just there are so many people making posts that are not even a sentence long and it is bothering me for some reason. I respect all of you in this thread!
 
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Snorley

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more like, he understands wario like he went to college for 5 years just to study him and him alone.

geez guys, it's not just "wario is bad, gluttony is godlike. the end."

It takes more than general godlike fundamentals and execution skills to get a "terrible" character to excel like he does.

some people really click with another character, and yes, those people that succeed like he does, have godlike fundamentals and execution skills, but it's not like he could switch to someone else and instantly do the same damage he does with wario.

his success is just a combo of amazing fundamentals, amazing execution, and a TOOOOOON of intricate wario knowledge and understanding, and knowledge of how to operate in his MUs. Just watch how seamless and sudden he sees footstool combos. Correct my knowledge, but does any other top player do that? maybe it's really a wario-specific thing to catch footstools out the blue like him.

gluttony is sooo used to wario and his "system" that he can play like without virtually any clunkiness, and he can respond to different stimuli very quickly.

I don't want to sound like some fanboy, but I just really like how well he uses wario. He doesn't just use the fundamentals and try to play safe, he really really studies ware's everything, on top of having really good fundamentals, and on top of having an amazing adaption skill.
its not that hard https://clips.twitch.tv/ExcitedObservantMangetoutFunRun
 

Illuminose

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i think there's definitely a valid argument to deny zss a top 10 position, and to call it an 'outlandish' position ignores several practical issues with the character that come to light at the top level of play. zss is a good enough character to place consistently very well with at big tournaments in the right hands. her mobility, disadvantage state, and lethal punish capabilities are all top tier qualities that give her the options to perform well in most mus. that said, zss has numerous flaws that lead to some debilitating matchups, a factor that all of the top zss players and some others understand well.

1) lack of safe rising aerials and safe grounded pokes. this essentially means that zss's safe attacking options are limited to spaced falling aerials, which are safe on normal shield but unsafe on powershield. having to do the falling aerial makes timing a powershield much easier, particularly if you crouch to lower your hurtbox and also make timing the powershield easier. relying on falling aerials also makes zss vulnerable to quick air-airs and certain anti-air options, particularly certain pp up tilts. she has just enough options alongside her mobility to have a serviceable neutral and effective offense, but there's just blatant holes that become really obvious in certain matchups and against players that know how to exploit them.

2) bad grab. this is really basic info, but zss's grab has pretty severe issues. it's not even that rewarding unless you have rage or platforms to convert the grab into a ko. this makes shielding against zss very strong. it is nice that zss can confirm into grabs in a few different ways between nair, zair, and paralyzer, but lack of an oos grab and the general unsafeness of her grab are major flaws. if you watch choco vs ken, you see that almost all of choco's grabs are straight callouts in neutral. marss and nairo do these as well, sometimes just throwing grabs out when the risk/reward is in their favor (or even not). it's rewarding for them when they land the grabs, but there's also many examples (even in sets they win) where they get punished heavily or just cannot land their grabs.

3) mediocre kill options past ladder percents. at high percents, zss often can't do much to kill other than fish for bair. she doesn't really have a grab to ko at high percents (if her dthrow is di'd properly and particularly with rage) or many real setups into ko options except out of dsmash. she can also up b oos if you touch her shield unsafely, though it's a pretty unreliable option because falling out of up b is so common, especially with certain characters. watching umebura tat, nairo was making comments in the chat about how zss struggles in last hit situations, and you could really see it in the grand finals of choco vs ken. what ken does against zss players is he utilizes his sonic playstyle and they just can't hit him, particularly at ko percents. it's hard for choco to fish for back airs when ken catches all kinds of jumps with a rising back air of his own, so getting kills at high percents is extremely hard. now apply this to other characters that punish those jumps easier and harder than sonic does - particularly bayo and cloud. this issue becomes very apparent against these characters, particularly because both of them tend to fall out of up b, which is part of what makes these matchups so difficult for zss.

4) her hitboxes don't hit low well. this makes short characters, even if not quite losing mus, a huge pain for her to fight, as well as characters with low crouches.

as for matchups, i tend to agree with Galaxeon Galaxeon in that her top 4 mus, particularly against the top 2, hold her back a good deal. with 2-3 -2 mus, you could still make an argument to put zss in top 10, but having 2 of those matchups be against the top 2 characters in the game is a huge flaw when those are by far the most relevant mus. explanations on zss vs top 4 mus:

- bayo beats zss in just about every facet of the game. her crouch, dtilt, nair, wtw, and wt in particular make neutral a huge pain for zss. bayo beats zss in terms of damage output. her normally incredible disadvantage state falls apart in the face of bayo's brutal edgeguards and ability to follow flip kick easily with abk. she also has a tendency to fall out of up b in a way that does not kill her and puts zss in a disadvantageous position, neutering zss's punish game. it is clear why this is considered zss's worst mu, and we see this in salem's dominant record against nairo as well as some of nairo's other more recent losses to bayo. choco has also struggled in this mu against 9b. marss has lost to mistake and zack in this mu, though he has beaten zack before.

- although there isn't quite as much consensus on this mu, i would make the argument that cloud is nearly as difficult as bayo for zss. cloud's range and busted air-air/anti-air options are very difficult for zss to deal with. combine this with cloud falling out of up bs in the same unfortunate manner that bayo does and you're not looking at a good mu. the main reason this mu is slightly easier than bayo is that killing cloud, particularly with successful reads in advantage state, is less of a chore. we've seen nairo succeed in this mu against komo and other lesser clouds, but both tweek and leo have looked very difficult for a long time at this point. marss has also struggled in this mu. choco has an alright record against japanese clouds, but he's still lost to a few of them, including rain, mangalitza, and selcia. he was pushed to the limit by kameme's secondary cloud this past weekend at umebura tat as well.

- sheik is probably zss's third worst mu. we've actually seen nairo be very successful in this mu in his victories over mr.r and void in particular, but nairo and zss players in general still lament this mu. the main factor zss has to succeed in this mu is her rage ladder, which confirms really well on sheik, but aside from that, this mu is just difficult. sheik's oppressive safety/slippery nature in neutral, low crouch, high damaging punish game, and ledge trapping make this mu an all-around pain for zss. it's probably just a -1 mu at this point, but it's borderline -2.

- diddy is a mu that has actually been getting better over time, but zss still loses it. fair and banana are too effective as walling options, and diddy's movement combined with his small hurtbox makes hitting him difficult for a character who has issues with short characters in general. that said, diddy's lackluster disadvantage state and particularly his poor aerial drift make zss's punish game very effective against diddy. moreover, diddy punishes zss's jumps and her options in general worse than other characters. this makes the risk/reward of throwing out grabs, for instance, a lot better than other mus, allowing her to overcome the advantages diddy has to prevent these grabs.

compare zss's mus against the top 4 to other non-top 4 characters. rosa struggles with cloud a lot and has some issues with bayo as well, but she does much better against bayo and beats both sheik and diddy. sonic loses 3 top 4 mus (bayo, cloud, and sheik), but only one is potentially -2, that mu being bayo. pika is generally seen to go even with all of these characters, with some of them even being a potential slight advantage for him. corrin goes even with bayo and probably loses -1 to the other 3. mk goes even with cloud and loses -1 to the other 3. although mario struggles with bayo and cloud as well, he does better in both of those mus and goes even with sheik while arguably beating diddy. ryu goes even with sheik that loses the other 3 only -1, with the possible exception of diddy. marth goes even with bayo and probably loses only -1 to the other 3. see how many characters perform blatantly better against the top 4? not all of these characters are necessarily better than zss, but i would argue many of them are, especially rosa, sonic, pika, corrin, and mario.

the top 4 doesn't even include all of zss's losing mus. pika is probably ~as difficult as sheik, the best example of a character that abusing zss's difficulties with characters that have small hurtboxes, good air-air/anti-air options, and disadvantage states that she cannot abuse. next, factor in zss's lack of dominance against the cast in general. nairo lists 11 even mus, and some of the +1 mus that he lists, like olimar, mk, and g&w, are generous and more than likely even mus. aside from heavies, zss does not have a single mu better than +1 against a non-low tier, and she does not beat every low tier better than +1. she does not beat any top tier. with a worse spread against the top 4 than several characters, no winning top tier mus, and a relatively unimpressive spread against the cast as a whole, zss struggles to qualify for a top 10 spot.
 

Rizen

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Speaking of fundamentals, I feel like :4sonic: gets underrated because his lack of explosive options. It's easy to freak out when you get smash4ed by Ding dong or limit cs but look at it from the other side. Neutral strong characters like Sonic and Diddy are just as scary. You lose 4 out of 5 times to largely safe options then get pressured across the stage and probably ledge trapped. That's as potent as anything combo heavy characters can do.

Sonic has the best potential to punish of the cast; not to be confused with the best punish game overall. Landing vs Sonic is dangerous from anywhere on the stage because his dash and pivot game. Sonic can play fake out mind games and wiff punish safely by staying out of the opponent's range- but you're almost never out of his. Speaking from the perspective of a zoning/walling character, Sonic can get to you faster and easier than greninja. IMO Sonic has the best overall mobility in the game. Who else can pivot grab from across a large stage? Sonic has weak punishes compared to characters like Bayo or Cloud so his overall game falls short.

With that said, it's not like Sonic has bad combos/punishes. He also has stray hits with good trade potential in Bair and Fsmash and one of the better disadvantage games because spring has great gtfo coverage. Sonic is one of the more well rounded top tiers with others like Fox having worse disadvantage yet better offense, ZSS being balanced by a bad grab and inconsistent kill moves etc. InB4 shield safety: With mobility like his, shield safety isn't as important (look at Cloud).

I think because all this Sonic preforms better at top level play than mid level, Diddy too. The tl;dr is don't let Sonic's seemingly lackluster game plan fool you when comparing him to other top tiers.
 
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Lukingordex

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I mean his results are stagnant and shrinking. His grab game is close to garbage and his recovery kind of bad. His out of sheild options are kind of poor as well and his defense options ( roll / sidestep ) are no good either.
While i have to agree that Yoshi's results have been close to nothing in major events, at least he doesn't seem to do that bad in a lot of local scenes. I mean, it's not uncommon for me to see an image of a local scene's PR with a Yoshi in it. Idk if that's a very relevant thing to have though.

I don't see how his recovery is bad. The guy's the fastest in the air, that alone let's him avoid a lot of stuff other characters can't. He can further or mix it with egg throw, change momentum with egg lay, fall with dair, has also a very quick air dodge and a frame 3 nair to make punishing it harder and among other things. If you don't waste your DJ for no reason them you have one of the best recoveries in the game. While none of those options are unbeatable, it's really hard to predict because Yoshi has just too much options too choose from. A creative Yoshi player will probably make it back onstage most of the time.

While his oos options aren't anything super amazing, they're not useless. Nair oos is fairy decent to hit someone that's going a lot for grabs and upsmash or down b oos are very strong options that will net a kill if someone lags in your shield. His grab is not good but at least there are some specific situations that it's useable due to the long range it has. As for rolls and spotdodges... i almost never use those options anymore to be honest.
 
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NINTENDO Galaxy

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Who else can pivot grab from across a large stage?
In addition to Sonic, Captain Falcon and Shulk in Monado Speed Art, can run across stages fast and throw out pivot grabs; if speed is what you were referring to instead of a pivot grab's range, like Bowser's.

Esam has made 3 of his new tier list videos if anyone wants to talk about them. His latest one was released yesterday.
 

Routa

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Main issue with Yoshi's recovery is that it relays too much on double jump armor. The armor isnt that hard to beat. There are a lot of moves that can straight out beat it with ease. While he can somewhat cover his recover... Let's just say that many of the character can just ignore it and go Fair him. Egg isn't threating, Egglay is laggy that only covers the area infront of him and is easy to punish, Dair, Nair and Fair can easily be outranged.
I'm not saying his recovery is horrible, but it is on the weaker side. I have heard Yoshi mains saying that the get to recover due to people not willing to go challenge him. People are afraid of his recovery for no good reason.
 
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Frihetsanka

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Regarding Zero Suit Samus: I see three likely scenarios.

#1. She has 3 (or more) -2 MUs and thus isn't top 10.
#2. She has less than 3 -2 MUs and is top 10.
#3. She has 3 (or more) -2 MUs but still is top 10.

Having a -2 MU to a common top tier character like Diddy Kong is a big deal, and something we might expect a mid tier or a low tier to have, not a high tier and even less a top tier. This makes #3 unlikely. Those of us that want to argue that Zero Suit Samus is top 10 would then, I believe, have to make a strong case for her just losing slightly to characters like Diddy Kong and Bayonetta (Pikachu is rare enough that she could be top tier even if she loses -2, maybe).

I should mention that I'm hardly an expert on Zero Suit Samus and will thus refer to high/top level players who main her in order to support my case.

What about Bayonetta (:4bayonetta2:) vs Zero Suit Samus? (Captain Zack puts her at -1 (45:55), Dragonite at even, Es at -0.5 (which, given his system, I assume would translate to "slight disadvantage" or -1 in most systems), Ikep -0.5, Laske -1, Myollnir -1, RiotLettuce -2*, Saj -1, Sells -2**. It seems most major Bayonetta players (who have published MU charts) believe that Zero Suit Samus only is at a slight disadvantage versus Bayonetta. That leaves Diddy Kong.

*It should be noted that his MU chart is incredibly optimistic. He thinks Bayonetta wins vs Corrin +2 as well, and he even thinks she wins +1 vs Cloud!

**Also very optimistic (and old), where Bayonetta wins every matchup in the game except three, with a slight disadvantage to Cloud and even MUs with Diddy Kong and Sheik.

Diddy Kong (:4diddy:) is, of course, another common character where having a -2 MU against would be devastating. How does Zero Suit Samus fair against him? BANG! -2, dyr -1, Jtails -1, Legit -2, Marcbri -2, Player-1 -1-ish (57:43), Seagull Joe -1, Wormynugget -2, ZeRo -1 (essentially).

Overall, many Diddy Kong Players do consider it -2, although many also consider it -1. The distinction would make a big difference where Zero Suit Samus lands on the MU chart: If she truly loses -2 to Diddy Kong, then she might even be worse than Marth and Corrin (and Pikachu, potentially). I'm not convinced she really loses -2 to Diddy Kong, though. I'm neither a Diddy Kong expert nor a ZSS expert, but I've seen ZeRo vs Nairo enough times to say that it doesn't seem nearly as one-sided as, say, Cloud vs Yoshi. I'm inclined to say that it's a -1 MU, perhaps leaning towards -2.

I also think Pikachu and Bayonetta are (probably) -1 MUs. Which gives ZSS 3 -1 MUs, and a bunch of good MUs, which might be enough to be top 10.
 

Envoy of Chaos

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I wouldn't say Yoshi's recovery is bad thanks to his air speed and DJ height but it's definitely very exploitable, even with his air speed getting hit back off stage without his DJ is essentially death everytime, if Yoshi comes low below the stage and doesn't time his jump right so that he pops over the lip and good poke like Marth Dtilt can be all it takes to seal his stock.

Also as far as this game is considered having a -2 clearly isn't enough to prevent your character from still being in the top tier or good even so I wouldn't put that much weight on ZSS potentially having some losing MUs hindering her from top ten. It's not even accepted that Bayonetta has no losing MUs yet she's the clear number one. And I definitely wouldn't put a ton of weight in a -1 if you interpret it as 55-45 while your at a disadvantage that is not anything that requires monumental effort to overcome. I know it sounds counter intuitive but you can't compare a -2 disadvantage with Brawl MK the same way you can a -2 disadvantage to Smash 4 Diddy the gap isn't as large.
 

Frihetsanka

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Also as far as this game is considered having a -2 clearly isn't enough to prevent your character from still being in the top tier or good even so I wouldn't put that much weight on ZSS potentially having some losing MUs hindering her from top ten. It's not even accepted that Bayonetta has no losing MUs yet she's the clear number one
You don't necessarily need 0 losing MUs to be #1, even if that happened to be the case in all previous Smash games. Anyway, I don't know where you get "clearly isn't enough",and I will attempt to make a case that having a -2 MU against a common characer will significantly reduce the likelihood of a character being top tier.

And I definitely wouldn't put a ton of weight in a -1 if you interpret it as 55-45 while your at a disadvantage that is not anything that requires monumental effort to overcome.
Being soft-countered by a common character is bad, but it's not super bad. Corrin is soft-countered by Fox, Sheik, Diddy Kong, and Cloud (all these, except Sheik, are argued to be even by different people though), and perhaps some other character, but she's not really countered by any character. Ness, on the other hand, has several actual counters (and several soft-counters as well). I think most top tiers have 1-4 soft-counters, but none of them have an actual counter (-2). In the past I used to think Meta Knight was a counter to Rosalina, but the Rosalina players seem to have adapted and now it only looks like a slight disadvantage (-1) for Rosalina. Which top tier characters do you think have real counters (not just soft-counters)?

It's worth noting that none of the Melee top tiers are believed to have any -2 MUs (and only Ice Climbers in high tier, losing -2 to Peach and Ganondorf). In Brawl, Falco and Snake (who were at the bottom of top tier) were believed to have 2 and 1 bad MUs, both losing to Pikachu and Falco losing -2 to Ice Climbers. It should be noted that Falco had an otherwise really good MU spread, not losing to any other character aside from Meta Knight (-1), and even beating Olimar, Diddy Kong, and Zero Suit Samus (+1, the first two being top tiers while ZSS being high tier). Anyway... My point is that having a -2 MU vs one of the most common characters in the game is not a trait of a top tier character. I don't think any current Smash 4 top tier has any -2 MUs at all, and if they do, then we should seriously reconsider their position on the tier list.

I know it sounds counter intuitive but you can't compare a -2 disadvantage with Brawl MK the same way you can a -2 disadvantage to Smash 4 Diddy the gap isn't as large.
Smash 4 Diddy isn't as common as Brawl MK, so a -2 Diddy MU isn't as bad as a -2 Brawl MK MU. Diddy is still a very common character, and a -2 MU hurts.
 
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Envoy of Chaos

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I don't know enough about the top tiers to say for sure what their MU spreads look like but if we compare other top tier MU charts and I'll try to use the more recent ones

Sonic- Ken has Sonic losing to Bayo -2, Manny has Sonic losing 8 MUs -1 (none -2), don't know how old Komo's is but he has 2 -1 and two maybe -1.

Fox- Larry has 5 -1 (No -2), CDK has 1 -1 and Bayo as a -2, Xzax has 4 -1s and 2 maybe -1, Nakat had Fox with 2 -2s and 6 -1s

Diddy- Depending on how you interpreted ZeRos chart Diddy has potentially 6 -1s (no -2)
MVD is from 2016 but he listed 6 characters Diddy loses to


These are three characters who's top tier status isn't questioned yet the best of their players list (mostly) MU charts that have a fair amount of soft counter and some counters for their tier placement. Granted you can look at top Sheik's or Rosa's charts and they look a lot better but my point stands that having a few -1s and even a -2 shouldn't hold a character back in this game from being top tier. Maybe we need to rethink what we consider the top tier range if this is the case?
 

KakuCP9

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How on earth does ZSS lose to Pika? It's not like the Falcon MU where you get a stray hit and convert into a free edgeguard (or exploit his bad disadvantage such that even Pika can deal ton of damage). ZSS's recovery is much to robust for Pika to cover effectively and her flip kick/ air mobility make it difficult for Pika to chip away at her at disadvantage. Furthermore, just because N-air/Z-air is difficult to land doesn't mean that she is helpless in neutral. B-air offers simlar safety if Pika is trying to be cute and crouch under everything. Unless Pika has a practical footstool combo I don't know about, I'm having trouble seeing what Pika does to her to make this a disadvantageous MU since it sounds more like an exercise in tedium if nothing else. Though I don't think highly of Pika so an alternative perspective would be appreciated.
 

Sinister Slush

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I personally think Yoshi is still a little bit too high, he should not be above Shulk, ROB, Robin and Samus. He should not go to E tier but still. I mean his results are stagnant and shrinking.
If you were to ask me I'd think that he should be higher, above Link at most. I'd be more inclined to say a lot of the japanese voters helped in making Yoshi drop 4 spots since a good few lists even had him at bottom 15. With all of the votes averaging 34 if it was a JPN tier list only.

His results and playerbase is definitely going down (in terms of high level Yoshi's, mid/low level local Yoshi's run rampant on many small regions PR) but a tier list isn't based off results alone (though it has a big factor in the tier list, but it's not the be all end all). Even putting main bias aside I don't think many people can actually say with a straight face Yoshi is a worse character than Shulk Robin and Samus. Two of the characters mentioned barely have functional moves (samus) or incredibly slow moves/mobility (shulk for first and robin for second)

Even then outside of Shulk the results for Robin and Samus is mediocre and been slowly deteriorating, outside of ESAM who uses pikachu for 95% of tournaments to get the Samus secondary up in the top 32 of nationals I have no idea where icymist and johnny westside went. While for Robin pretty much most of their old hard hitters have quit, can't get results with the character anymore or moved on to other characters like Raziek, Dath, Xzax, Trela, ke-ya Nairo favoring bowser over robin. The list goes on.

ROB I have no comments on simply because I don't see this character in any streams I happen to watch that isn't a big national or regional.

His grab game is close to garbage and his recovery kind of bad. His out of sheild options are kind of poor as well and his defense options ( roll / sidestep ) are no good either.
Yeah his grab is pretty garbo and none of the throws kill but catching people off guard with dthrow uair is still a good option on fast fallers mostly.
As mentioned last page with ZSS, a character doesn't need godly OoS options to be good. His Rolls are bad and his recovery is just fine, it just gets hard exploited by the most common popular character in smash, Cloud.
Or if the Yoshi player makes a monumentous mistake. (which is common cause we're all greedy ****s wanting to end stocks quickly)

Only thing I agree with in this segment of why Yoshi is bad with no context is his roll, which even then you can circumvent his bad roll with the fact his shield can't be poked like everyone else's and he isn't chained to not having jump OoS like the last two smash games, but he does suffer from power shielding being an issue for him due to how the egg stays consistent in size.


Main issue with Yoshi's recovery is that it relays too much on double jump armor. The armor isnt that hard to beat. There are a lot of moves that can straight out beat it with ease.
No to pretty much everything outside of recovery relying on DJ armor. He definitely lives or dies off that. At least I hope he does rely on it since his DJ is basically his makeshift UpB since he has no real recovery like every other character in the game???
The only characters/moves that beats out Yoshi's armor easily is Cloud/Bayo. Shocking I know.

The problem with Yoshi is he can't auto-snap to ledge from DJ or upb like a regular character and he has problems landing when he's in the air. Short hopping alone is a huge commitment to Yoshi.
His DJ armor is most definitely hard to beat and many people would be surprised what moves he can take like its nothing, the problem is just most of the Yoshi's don't know when to stop face tanking hits when they shouldn't.
They try to Trial and Error stuff when they're past 100% but then wonder why they lose the fight when they get clonked off stage again.
A flat threshold all Yoshi's should have mentally burned into their brains to stop trying to take hits on purpose should be 80%. Around that point you'll lose to almost every move that has any amount of knockback.
Link to DJ again here to find out specific % for when a move breaks Yoshi's DJ armor. Help make Yoshi low tier by beating us more so we can win that free Low tier money please.

Not saying we're the best at it, but I feel like the only ones who'd risk taking hits to trade with a move of our own even if it's a smash attack was Wall and I.
Every other Yoshi I watched panics and airdodges even if it's weak moves with next to no knockback while they have low/medium % or tries to trade the opponent early and tends to lose.

Most recent thing I saw despite it being months old was Seth airdodging pika rapid jab despite him being under 70% he could've easily taken those hits and avoided losing a stock/the game.


Video for reference showing what I said earlier with Yoshi having problems landing.
This one showcasing Seth being trigger happy with AD.
While it sucks for Yoshi, the best thing he can do in a situation like that where he needs to land is downb onstage and eat a punish or downb to the ledge. (which again not many do) Under almost no circumstances Yoshi should be recovering beneath the line where the ledge is unless he was knocked down there at an ugly angle like Cloud nair for example, otherwise if he's down there from the opponent not hitting him at all than he obviously went too deep for a kill off their own greediness.

While he can somewhat cover his recover... Let's just say that many of the character can just ignore it and go Fair him. Egg isn't threating, Egglay is laggy that only covers the area infront of him and is easy to punish, Dair, Nair and Fair can easily be outranged.
I'm not saying his recovery is horrible, but it is on the weaker side. I have heard Yoshi mains saying that the get to recover due to people not willing to go challenge him. People are afraid of his recovery for no good reason.
One thing I'll completely agree with, people on the regional/local level never go out to suffocate Yoshi offstage.

Can't preach it enough, if a Yoshi is offstage they should be focused on making it back. So if they're medium/low % they can very likely tank most hits unless it's something strong like a Cloud fair Falcon Dair etc.
I can't think of any circumstances where a Yoshi would attempt a rising Dair/nair/fair to get back on stage. Only thing I'd say is rising Neutral B which should most definitely be feared at least a little bit offstage from the opponent if they're at high % cause that can be a stock off them instead of Yoshi if they get caught though even that option is super risky cause the nerf to his Neutral B sakurai did hurt him a lot.


I wouldn't say Yoshi's recovery is bad thanks to his air speed and DJ height but it's definitely very exploitable, even with his air speed getting hit back off stage without his DJ is essentially death everytime, if Yoshi comes low below the stage and doesn't time his jump right so that he pops over the lip and good poke like Marth Dtilt can be all it takes to seal his stock.
Yeah his recovery is definitely exploitable, again though off what Routa mentioned. People let him recover for free most of the time cause a couple things local players don't keep track of is his Egg toss counts or pay close attention to his DJ/rings that indicate any characters DJ being used.
If people watched out for those two things the MU would be a lot more easier for them for sure. I don't think many people mentally count his egg toss jumps.

Despite what I said with his auto-snap problem, one trick Yoshi has always been able to do is downb underneath the ledge to grab it, but the risk is losing your stock if you **** up by holding down too long (have to basically flick downb, which also gives the risk of egg rolling offstage) or too far away so it's generally not used by many often lol.
 

Frihetsanka

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I forgot Nairo. Nairo lists Pikachu and Diddy (and Sheik, Cloud, and Sonic) as -1, and Bayonetta as -1 or -2.

Sonic- Ken has Sonic losing to Bayo -2, Manny has Sonic losing 8 MUs -1 (none -2), don't know how old Komo's is but he has 2 -1 and two maybe -1.
If Manny's MU chart is correct, then Sonic isn't a top tier. KEN's MU chart makes it seem more likely, if we discount the -2 vs Bayonetta (which is amusing, since I've seen many Bayonetta players claim that Sonic slightly wins the MU). Komo's MU chart makes Sonic look like a top tier (losing slightly to Cloud and Mewtwo, potentially losing slightly to Corrin* and Diddy Kong, going even with a bunch of characters and winning against the rest). Sonic should probably be around 7-ish on a tier list (5 might be a bit too high). Of course, MU charts cannot always be trusted, especially when there's lots of disagreement between knowledgeable players.

*I highly doubt Corrin wins that MU, it's probably even.

Fox- Larry has 5 -1 (No -2), CDK has 1 -1 and Bayo as a -2, Xzax has 4 -1s and 2 maybe -1, Nakat had Fox with 2 -2s and 6 -1s
Which MU chart are you using for Charliedaking? The most recent one I found is from July, where Fox has two bad MUs, Bayonetta (45:55) and Sheik (40:60), although he has since then moved Sheik to 45:55 (in his Sheik MU chart, Sheik wins 55:45 against Fox). It should be noted that Fox doesn't win against any top tiers aside from Sonic, but going even with every top tier but two, winning against one, and winning against most of the rest of the cast (including a few high tier characters) is potentially good enough for top tier. So CDK's tier list does make Fox look like a top tier, in my opinion.

Larry Lurr's Fox MU charts has Fox at 5 -1 MUs, which is a bit much for a top tier... But one of them is Kirby. Granted, "losing" to one of the worst characters in the game may be embarrassing, but in practice it hardly ever matters (and the MU is likely even anyway). Anyway, based on Larry Lurr's MU chart I'd place Fox in high tier or at the lower end of top tier, but I think Larry might be underestimating Fox a bit.

I don't really have much to say about Xzax's tier list. Going even with Diddy Kong and potentially Cloud as well isn't bad. Slightly losing to Bayonetta and Sheik (and Ryu and Luigi) is unfortunate, but not necessarily enough to keep Fox out of top tier. He won't be a top 3 character with that MU chart, but he might still make top 8, especially considering characters below him might have even worse MU charts. That's one of the things about top tiers, a lot of the time they tend to go even with each other and significantly win against the rest of the cast.

NAKAT makes Fox look like a high-mid tier character (or maybe high tier). Either Fox isn't top 15 or NAKAT's MU chart is wrong. I'm betting on the latter.

Diddy- Depending on how you interpreted ZeRos chart Diddy has potentially 6 -1s (no -2)
MVD is from 2016 but he listed 6 characters Diddy loses to
ZeRo has a tendency to underestimate Diddy. His MU chart is too pessimistic. MVD is also too pessimistic. This is a trend I've noticed amongst players of top 3 characters: They're so used to winning every MU so when they face an even and hard MU they mistake it for a losing MU.

Granted you can look at top Sheik's or Rosa's charts and they look a lot better but my point stands that having a few -1s and even a -2 shouldn't hold a character back in this game from being top tier. Maybe we need to rethink what we consider the top tier range if this is the case?
I think the key word here is "few". It also matters which characters they lose to. Losing to, say, Mega Man is much better than losing to Cloud. Losing -1 is much better than losing -2. I still don't think any of the top 8 characters have any -2 MUs at all.
 

NINTENDO Galaxy

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Emblem Lord Emblem Lord

Do you mind continuing your approaching Ryu as a smash character that hurt his metagame that you talked about in the weekly character thread?

It was really interesting and I enjoyed it.
 
D

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Emblem Lord Emblem Lord

Do you mind continuing your approaching Ryu as a smash character that hurt his metagame that you talked about in the weekly character thread?

It was really interesting and I enjoyed it.
Where is the weekly character thread? I want to see it!

Speaking of Ryu, I can understand why people want him down to high tier. It is probably because of his match ups not being as good as the other top tiers and his small results compared to the rest of the top tiers. My question is will he be above Corrin? And I realized that people want Mario in high tier; but that is a stretch.
 

MercuryPenny

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And I realized that people want Mario in high tier; but that is a stretch.
it...really isn't? i haven't seen many reasons for mario being top tier beyond "muh grab" "muh situational and borderline impractical footstools" "muh air speed" while ignoring his mid-tier neutral, unreliable kill options, and the fact that his punish game...really isn't super impressive anymore. i really don't understand why the idea is still being unironically perpetuated.
 

NotLiquid

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I'm kind of curious what the general history of the Sonic / Bayonetta MU is in cases that aren't KEN vs Salem, especially since when it comes to watching those two I get the impression that both players are forced to play it patiently. Even when Salem has a positive record over KEN I never bought that he's some kind of secret Sonic slayer because the game plan for both is just constantly sticking it out in neutral. I feel it's a -1 for Sonic but I'm not sure how much more than that it is.
 
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Envoy of Chaos

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Really neat project your doing, I wonder how my region (Coastal Southeast) will place given you attached Florida with it.
 

Nobie

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I've been thinking more about Yoshi myself, and the whole idea of "potential" that wasn't. Optimist as I am, even I can see that Yoshi probably won't live up to the theory that people saw in him early on. At the same time, I don't think it's as simple as people just learning how to fight him, but rather a combination of factors.

1) Early impressions were partially based on online play

This really doesn't matter for tournaments, but back when people were basing a lot of their theory on their online experiences, Yoshi was a menace. Like Dedede, he jumps up like 10 spots when having to deal with a bit of lag. A lot of his safeish attacks become super safe. His bad roll matters way less. It set in people's minds the idea that Yoshi is annoying an unpunishable, which has been proven to not be the case.

2) Anti-Yoshi strategies still haven't changed for the most part, and people have gotten better at them

You probably know the basics. Mess with his recovery. Whiff punish him because he tends to extend his hurt box. I think Yoshi forward air epitomizes this relationship. It's this huge headbutt that's safe on hit/shield, but as people get used to the timing, they know better how to intercept it. Yoshi thrives when the opponent is hesitant with fear. He begins to crumble when the opponent picks him apart piece by piece, and players have just gotten more confidence over time.

3) Swords, swords, swords

I actually do think Yoshi could have more likely been high tier prior to DLC. The way he functions could potentially take on characters like Diddy Kong and Mario. There's a reason Kameme pulled Yoshi out to fight Mario at EVO, even if it didn't quite pan out. But then DLC came.

I once said something like, "How much does Cloud mess with the tier list, really?" but in hindsight Yoshi suffers immensely from his presence. All of that stuff about basically attacking Yoshi's extended hurtboxes? That's what Cloud does for a living. He almost doesn't even have to try. Now add to that Corrin, a buffed Marth, a buffed Lucina, and a buffed Mewtwo. Pre-patches, I'd say Mewtwo definitely lost the Yoshi matchup. Post-patches? That matchup has completely flipped around. I don't think any character, not even Jigglypuff, hates disjoints the way Yoshi can because they exploit the inherent weaknesses built into the character so thoroughly.
 
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it...really isn't? i haven't seen many reasons for mario being top tier beyond "muh grab" "muh situational and borderline impractical footstools" "muh air speed" while ignoring his mid-tier neutral, unreliable kill options, and the fact that his punish game...really isn't super impressive anymore. i really don't understand why the idea is still being unironically perpetuated.
Mario may not be as strong as he once is, but Mario is top tier. He won super majors and some other majors. Mario will never be higher than top nine in my opinion; and his results are not as good.

Mario will never be high tier; he just feel too "strong". The grab combos are actually very effective and Mario has a lot of combo utility. I do think Mario will never be higher than number nine on the tier list, but being at high tier is a little bit of a stretch. Ryu is very likely to fall to high tier next tier list though.
 

Ziodyne 21

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I'm kind of curious what the general history of the Sonic / Bayonetta MU is in cases that aren't KEN vs Salem, especially since when it comes to watching those two I get the impression that both players are forced to play it patiently. Even when Salem has a positive record over KEN I never bought that he's some kind of secret Sonic slayer because the game plan for both is just constantly sticking it out in neutral. I feel it's a -1 for Sonic but I'm not sure how much more than that it is.
Well there is also the fact that Salem has yet to lose a set to a Sonic period. I mean other "Character Killers" Such as ZeRo with Cloud or Dabuz with Bayo do not have competely perfect records vs said characters.

Tweek also beat KEN in GF's MKLeo Saga with his own Bayo.


But for the MU without Salem or KEN. I think Bayo is ahead..
 
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MercuryPenny

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The grab combos are actually very effective and Mario has a lot of combo utility.
again - mario's damage output is getting less and less notable as the punish game evolves for the other characters. people really overstate how much damage mario gets off grabs - at 0% he's lucky if he gets 30% off up throw, and on pretty much everyone all his main combo starters/extenders are unsafe on hit at low percents. you're almost never going to get 60% off one grab unless they di really predictably (if at all) and choose really bad out-of-hitstun options.

and despite how well his moves can chain into each other at low-mid percents, his advantage state isn't actually that impressive. he doesn't quite have the mobility to catch landings, and even here his lack of range hurts him since any sword character can just use a move and he's forced to stay grounded and shield. offstage, most up bs have obnoxious enough hitboxes to beat out both fair and cape, and the one place they're most vulnerable (recovering low) is exactly where you can't fludd them.

also, he still can't kill off a grab, so even if he gets you to 80% off a couple grabs he still has to do about 70% more before he can even get you to your second stock, and once you're out of the percents for down throw fh up air he really relies on stray hits at that point.

and that's not even getting to how his awful range and complete lack of safe grounded moves hinder his neutral. or his awful matchups against sonic and bayonetta.
 

Rizen

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If you were to ask me I'd think that he should be higher, above Link at most. I'd be more inclined to say a lot of the japanese voters helped in making Yoshi drop 4 spots since a good few lists even had him at bottom 15. With all of the votes averaging 34 if it was a JPN tier list only.

His results and playerbase is definitely going down (in terms of high level Yoshi's, mid/low level local Yoshi's run rampant on many small regions PR) but a tier list isn't based off results alone (though it has a big factor in the tier list, but it's not the be all end all). Even putting main bias aside I don't think many people can actually say with a straight face Yoshi is a worse character than Shulk Robin and Samus. Two of the characters mentioned barely have functional moves (samus) or incredibly slow moves/mobility (shulk for first and robin for second)
Yeah, I hate to admit it but Yoshi>Link. Yoshi's not nearly as good as we first thought but it's not like Link has an amazing MU spread vs higher characters either. I agree Yoshi's better than Shulk and Robin too. IDK about Samus; she got some strong buffs. Her combo game, mobility and frame data are all excellent, although she doesn't work as well as high tiers. Charge shot is a great kill move and can be confirmed from Zair.
 

InfinitySoul

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Hat do you guys clssify as top tier ? To me top tiers are "chars that dont have loosing match ups or only slightly loosing". So to me, only sheik bayo diddy and cloud as they are pretty equal between each others.
Outside of them, you will run in noticeable desadvantaged match ups (mario has marth, sonic has bayo and cloud, rosa has cloud...)
 

Frihetsanka

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Mario may not be as strong as he once is, but Mario is top tier. He won super majors and some other majors.
Winning tournaments is very bracket and player reliant. Link almost won Civil War, one of the most stacked tournaments of all times (as was Captain Falcon). Other characters have been close to win majors as well, such as Villager and Corrin. None of these characters are believed to be top tier.

Mario will never be higher than top nine in my opinion; and his results are not as good.
So, let's say Mario is #10 or #11 on the tier list; does that mean he's necessarily top tier? I don't think so. People will argue for different lines, some think only top 4 or top 5 are top tier, some think top 8 are top tier, some top 10, some top 12, some even top 13 or top 14. ZeRo once had top 14 be top tier and top 32 be high tier (ie from 15 to 32), which seems a bit much to me. Where people draw the lines will differ. Is Mario top 8? I don't think so. Is he top 10? Potentially, although I could see him being lower. He has several troubling (-1) MUs against fairly common characters and he doesn't really win against many top tier characters. Even ZeRo, who has a tendency to underestimate Diddy Kong, believes that Diddy Kong goes even with Mario. Most notable Sheiks believe that Sheik either goes even or wins against Mario, with only a few putting it at "slight disadvantage" for Sheik.

So, basically, Mario's MU spread against top tiers is mostly even or slight disadvantages. It's fairly likely that he doesn't win a single MU against top tiers, and he does lose a few (and he might lose to a few high tiers as well, such as potentially Marth and/or Corrin). He probably won't drop from top 15 any time soon and will likely remain in high tier as a solid character unless the game gets patched (or if someone discovers some new tech that greatly improves Mario).

Mario will never be high tier; he just feel too "strong". The grab combos are actually very effective and Mario has a lot of combo utility. I do think Mario will never be higher than number nine on the tier list, but being at high tier is a little bit of a stretch. Ryu is very likely to fall to high tier next tier list though.
Ryu feels strong. Marth feels strong. Corrin feels strong. Luigi feels strong. Pikachu feels strong. I'd argue all of them are still high tier rather than top tier.

Hat do you guys clssify as top tier ? To me top tiers are "chars that dont have loosing match ups or only slightly loosing". So to me, only sheik bayo diddy and cloud as they are pretty equal between each others.
There are several criteria. A top tier character cannot lose hard against common characters (such as other top tiers or common high tiers such as Marth or Captain Falcon). Additionally, a top tier cannot have many losing MUs overall either. Furthermore, the MUs against other top tiers have to be fairly good overall (generally with at least one win against another top tier and going even with most*). Naturally, the MU chart against non-top tiers must be good as well. This, of course, greatly limits the amount of top tiers, as it should be. High tiers, while not quite as good as top tiers, can still do incredibly well. Take Melee as an example: Jigglypuff and Peach have done incredibly well thanks to Hungrybox and Armada, respectively. In Smash 4 we've seen players like Ally and ANTi do well with Mario, Shuton do well with Olimar, ESAM do well with Pikachu, etc. High tiers should not be underestimated.
 

|RK|

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Yeah, I hate to admit it but Yoshi>Link. Yoshi's not nearly as good as we first thought but it's not like Link has an amazing MU spread vs higher characters either. I agree Yoshi's better than Shulk and Robin too. IDK about Samus; she got some strong buffs. Her combo game, mobility and frame data are all excellent, although she doesn't work as well as high tiers. Charge shot is a great kill move and can be confirmed from Zair.
Should he, though? Like, theory alone, they both aren't great. But we've at least seen something practical from Link; never Yoshi.
 

Emblem Lord

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Mario is not top tier

Ok so back to Ryu.

So here you had a character that is not only unlike anything ever seen in smash, but really unlike anything seen in any other fighter ever. Sakurai even gave Ryu a mechanic from the ORIGINAL Street Fighter which released in 1987. The ability to hold a button to get a different attack. It was so clear that alot of thought and planning went into Ryu's development. When his trailer dropped what was showcased the most was his ability to cancel his buttons into other buttons and specials. Sakurai even dubbed him, "King of Combos".

Because of this communities roots in Smash 64 and Melee, two VERY combo-centric games it is very little wonder that Ryu's combo game would be the absolute focus on his meta for at LEAST a year. Old habits die hard and this community very much so tends to hyper focus on the ability to convert into high damage. The other aspect that gets focused on ALOT is mobility. So we had people focusing on super obvious and easily avoidable options like using Focus Dash cancelling to get around. While a decent option, this was not spammable or abusable because of Ryu's physics and his aerial buttons. That was also something very overlooked. Ryu's physics taken from Street Fighter 2. Folks either ignored it. Or wrote him off for it. Neither of which can lead to a deep understanding of a character.

Go back to the early days of Ryu's meta and you will see ALOT of Ryu's doing full jump nairs and other silliness. Essentially just praying for a stray hit that leads to a conversion. Or walking forward spamming utilt. Same strategy. Slightly different execution. It truly is a reminder that smash players are ALWAYS looking for an option that "does the work for them". Don't know what I mean?

Fox utilt. ZSS nair. Bayonetta dtilt. Diddy dtilt/fair. Sheik fair. MK dash attack. Rosalina.......ummm...alot of stuff.

You get me? Smash players are very much used to EXTREMELY abusive options that cover alot scenarios or that can be thrown out with relative safety.

That is not Ryu. But even worse was because that is kind of how smash works, when people ran into his moves and got walloped they blamed Ryu and called him silly. But if you look at his hitboxes compared to even Ganondorf, who is a weaker character overall Ryu's hitboxes really are no crazier and are in fact tamer on many moves in comparison. Again it's pretty clear that Ryu's moves are meant to be used with precision, rather than reckless abandon. And the few moves that DO have crazy hitboxes do not lead to much.

There was SO much focus on combos. But combos do not just "occur" like random happenstance that magically pops out of the ether of the universe. To get combos your character has to create opportunities. And that is where neutral comes in. Neutral has never been this communities strong point overall. Brawl did alot to change this communities perception of the neutral game. (Might make an article about that later.) But still I feel Smash as a game often lends itself to being able to "discover" a character's neutral game very naturally. It's not something that gets REALLY focused on as you can kind of put it all together slowly just by playing.

But the combination of his buttons, his physics, his unique attributes made it so figuring out Ryu's neutral game was not as simple as playing the character. The usual strategies of just running at someone with an attempted spaced aerial did not work. Ryu cannot drift in the air. When he jumps...he jumps. He had no "free" spacing aerial. He had some ok ground buttons, but they were outranged by characters like Diddy who could not only convert off a fully spaced dtilt, but it was also safe on block just like Ryu's.

Ever heard the term proactive inhibition? When past learning experiences interfere with new learning experiences. That was Ryu's meta in a nutshell. Everything you thought you knew about smash and tried to apply to Ryu only made it harder for you to learn him. Doesn't help that there was VERY little cross over between smash players and people that seriously played other fighters. So you did not have alot of Street Fighter players that also played smash, laying out a plan to learning Ryu in this game. You had people with pockets of knowledge trying to put it all together. Thankfully this is now not the case. A Smash 4 player just recently won Capcom Cup, beating one of the Street Fighter Gods, Tokido.

Figuring out Ryu meant actually going into practice mode and NOT practicing combos. It meant doing it the traditional fighter way and pressing his buttons.

Wait....wait....this man has TWO JABS?!?!?! TWO SIDE TILTS?!??! And so on.

He is also a character where you absolutely need intricate knowledge of his frame data and his hitboxes. Once you see the hitbox on nair, you understand why full jumping it and pressing it, is not actually a thing. You also understand that Ryu's bair is like Roy's....well....everything. It's weaker when fully spaced. It is not a spacing tool. You gain a much deeper understanding of his gameplan and what needs to happen. You also realize Ryu has a ton of 1 to 1 responses. Meaning he has no one amazing tool to cover multiple options and scenarios. He has ONE option to counter or deal with ONE other option from another character. Maybe two depending on who he is fighting. Diddy did a fair. Light ftilt. If you heavy jab you will trade. If you u-smash, you will trade. Mewtwo d-tilt. Safe on block and outranges all of Ryu's stuff. Dash attack wins clean as you will go over Mewtwo's head. Everything else loses or gets outranged on the ground. Bowser on the ground all his buttons win head on due to transcendence. Hard Jab is safe on block and outranges him. There are countless more scenarios.

I won't lie...I am STILL trying to piece together what he is supposed to do in neutral to actually reach his win condition consistently. Alot of it has to do with his mobility constraints and that there are easy access universal answers when Ryu has put you in a bad position. Most of which are so obvious they get ignored. Mainly because vs traditional smash characters they are not as strong, so people do not think to use them vs Ryu. But the Ryu community finally after over a year of misdirection has made some pretty huge strides. Don't get it twisted. Ryu will never be top tier in a game where you have characters with safe conversions on block that they can just press almost risk free. But I DO think there will be a general consensus on what his meta should look like in general.

Watch a Ryu match a year ago compared to today and you will definitely see some very noticeable differences and that is very cool to see.
 
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Winning tournaments is very bracket and player reliant. Link almost won Civil War, one of the most stacked tournaments of all times (as was Captain Falcon). Other characters have been close to win majors as well, such as Villager and Corrin. None of these characters are believed to be top tier.

So, let's say Mario is #10 or #11 on the tier list; does that mean he's necessarily top tier? I don't think so. People will argue for different lines, some think only top 4 or top 5 are top tier, some think top 8 are top tier, some top 10, some top 12, some even top 13 or top 14. ZeRo once had top 14 be top tier and top 32 be high tier (ie from 15 to 32), which seems a bit much to me. Where people draw the lines will differ. Is Mario top 8? I don't think so. Is he top 10? Potentially, although I could see him being lower. He has several troubling (-1) MUs against fairly common characters and he doesn't really win against many top tier characters. Even ZeRo, who has a tendency to underestimate Diddy Kong, believes that Diddy Kong goes even with Mario. Most notable Sheiks believe that Sheik either goes even or wins against Mario, with only a few putting it at "slight disadvantage" for Sheik.

So, basically, Mario's MU spread against top tiers is mostly even or slight disadvantages. It's fairly likely that he doesn't win a single MU against top tiers, and he does lose a few (and he might lose to a few high tiers as well, such as potentially Marth and/or Corrin). He probably won't drop from top 15 any time soon and will likely remain in high tier as a solid character unless the game gets patched (or if someone discovers some new tech that greatly improves Mario).

Ryu feels strong. Marth feels strong. Corrin feels strong. Luigi feels strong. Pikachu feels strong. I'd argue all of them are still high tier rather than top tier.
Smashboards says S and A are top tier, so Mario is top tier. Mario should be lower next tier in my opinion, but when I said Mario was too "strong", I meant he is too strong for high tier. Mario's results may be diminishing and those match ups are not good, but he has won many majors before and even some super majors. I believe Mario will be in the bottom of top tier in the next tier list, but Mario has a large player base to figure out these problems. I do think Mario should drop next tier list, but we will see. Mario's range and match ups are not good for a top tier, so maybe at the bottom side of top tier? If he fell into high tier, I could see why.
again - mario's damage output is getting less and less notable as the punish game evolves for the other characters. people really overstate how much damage mario gets off grabs - at 0% he's lucky if he gets 30% off up throw, and on pretty much everyone all his main combo starters/extenders are unsafe on hit at low percents. you're almost never going to get 60% off one grab unless they di really predictably (if at all) and choose really bad out-of-hitstun options.

and despite how well his moves can chain into each other at low-mid percents, his advantage state isn't actually that impressive. he doesn't quite have the mobility to catch landings, and even here his lack of range hurts him since any sword character can just use a move and he's forced to stay grounded and shield. offstage, most up bs have obnoxious enough hitboxes to beat out both fair and cape, and the one place they're most vulnerable (recovering low) is exactly where you can't fludd them.

also, he still can't kill off a grab, so even if he gets you to 80% off a couple grabs he still has to do about 70% more before he can even get you to your second stock, and once you're out of the percents for down throw fh up air he really relies on stray hits at that point.

and that's not even getting to how his awful range and complete lack of safe grounded moves hinder his neutral. or his awful matchups against sonic and bayonetta.
You do make a good compelling argument. I like this. Are not Mario players finding other ways to punish when some one dis the right way from the punishments? His range and match ups are terrible for a top tier ( which I believe he will be in the bottom side of the top tier in the next tier list ), and I think his results are dropping a little bit. Think about the other Mario players who seeks to learn how to fix these problems. I think Mario has a lot of combo utility though, his aerials can be pretty dangerous if you are not careful ( despite the lacking range ). What hurts Mario is he has to rely on smash attacks a lot ( especially Up smash ) to get a solid kill. I would be pretty interested to see Mario fall in to high tier. I agree and can see Mario fall in the next Backroom tier list as Cloud and Bayonetta become more prominent and dangerous to others. I like your opinion; I respect it. Got me to like!

Now I am starting to think Mario is not top tier as well.
 
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Frihetsanka

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Smashboards says S and A are top tier, so Mario is top tier.
If you look at the voting data, Sonic has a mean (placement) of 6.6, while Mario has a mean (placement) of 9.81. One could easily draw the line between top tier and high tier after Sonic, although in this case they drew the line at Ryu, who has a mean (placement) of 11.61. There is a noticable gap between Sonic and Mario, almost as large as the gap between Corrin and Mario. Anyway, I don't deny that Mario is A tier on the most recent Smashboards tier list. What I'm arguing is that Mario was placed too high, and that he should drop in the next list.*

*I could, of course, be underestimating Mario.

I think Mario has a lot of combo utility though, his aerials can be pretty dangerous if you are not careful ( despite the lacking range ).
We need to remember that Smash 4 is a game where someone near the middle of the tier list (such as Duck Hunt, Samus, or Link) can still achieve great results. Being top 15 in Smash 4 might not be as good as being top 5 or top 8, but it's still good enough to be very viable.

We also need to keep in mind balance patches and DLC. Buffs to Marth and Lucina and the introduction of Cloud, Corrin, Bayonetta, and perhaps Ryu (some believe Ryu beats Mario, some believe it's an even MU) indirectly hurt Mario. Even then, he's a very relevant threat, especially since he's fairly easy to pick up and play.

Of course, I might be wrong. If Dark Wizzy's Mario MU chart is correct, then Mario is, indeed, a top tier character, since he beats Diddy Kong and Sheik and goes even with all other top tiers aside from Cloud and Sonic (and potentially Bayonetta). He also loses to Marth and Lucina, according to Dark Wizzy. I personally believe that he is too optimistic, but I could be wrong. Here is his latest MU chart: https://twitter.com/Dark_Wizzy_/status/936745129041424384
 
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