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Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

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Kofu

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Throwing out these moves in neutral is like throwing out Ike's smashes hoping they connect. Its a super risky idea
I don't think it's a good idea but it's an option, and her smashes are big enough to hit people regardless.

This is the match I watched. It happens.
 
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Baby_Sneak

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the fact that you only named attacks basically proves you don't actually know what neutral is.

almost no character can touch bayonetta while she's doing nair guns or uair guns. you are taking free damage from this and now you have to approach her. her bair is like +4 (?) on block so she has no issue touching shields, if you eat like 3 of these on shield you will probably get shield broken from anything else. all 4 of her aerials are stupid.

her movement and nair/uair guns is what makes her neutral good. she can move around quickly and be wherever she wants with side b and witch twist, and nobody can contest this except maybe corrin's fsmash if you do it too close.

why would you ever be throwing smash attacks in neutral with ANY character? her jab speed doesn't matter. her dtilt and witch twist are her jabs.
She's not even fast lol what is this movement you're talking about.

If you use any Uair Guns or Nair guns or w/e, you're committing yourself heavily for about 3-3% worths of damage. Nope not doing that. I'd rather jab1 gun since it actually shoots in the space that every character wants to be in.

Bair And Nair are like the only good aerial pokes. Fair1 is short ranged and fair3 is telegraphed since you have to go through the whole chain to get it (don't know about fair2).

Bair is good. No argument there.

Witch twist has lag for you when you Land again so it's not entirely free. Bayonetta isn't amazing in neutral dude, she's GOOD. Not like sheik or diddy though.

EDIT: she's actually has good speed all around. I take back my initial statement.
 
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FallofBrawl

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Bayo's grounded side b 1 on shield is basically a mini rock paper scissors game

If you let go of shield to early, you get hit by the back kick

If you attack out of shield, Bayo has to use witch time

If you try to grab out of shield, Bayo can up b

Though there is a window to grab Bayo before grounded side b 2 if you're a fast enough character or perfect shield it
 

C0rvus

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re: Heel Slide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gupf_cYF6JE
Bayonetta's Smash attacks are pretty excellent in certain pressure situations. Many spots during strings with her normals there are spaces you can air dodge. Fair1 is great at this, especially when it sets up tech chase situations. Down smash hits below ledge.Down tilt > up smash is real at certain percents. They are also super long. Not bad moves at all.
 

momochuu

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this is the last post i'm going to make since i don't think you actually know much about this character.

neither nair or uair have any commitment because they have almost no lag when she hits the ground, they're both safe on block properly spaced, have active hitboxes almost the entire time, and they definitely don't do 3% when the non-bullet hitbox hits.

do you not understand or realize that witch twist has no freefall? or that she doesn't have to land in front of you? she has multiple options she can do after a witch twist in neutral, which is why the move is so stupid. its a non-committing, safe on block, 4 frame move that leads into 30%+ or death.

I'd rather jab1 gun since it actually shoots in the space that every character wants to be in.
why would any person playing bayonetta ever do this? like, ever? that is probably the worst move in bayonetta's entire moveset.
 

Ffamran

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She's not even fast lol what is this movement you're talking about.
To clarify anything else regarding Bayonetta and Corrin's mobility: She's [Bayonetta] average on the ground which is pretty fast considering Mario and Ryu are average and anyone below like Corrin, Ike, and Luigi are considered slow despite being below-average... >_>

So, average 1.6 run speed, below-average 0.90 walk speed, borderline below-average air speed of 0.97, above-average ai acceleration of 0.085, high fall speed of 1.77, and high gravity of 0.12. She's average.

Corrin's average too, well, below-average... below-average 1.5 run speed, high 1.2 walk speed, average air speed of 1, low air acceleration of 0.4 - Really? Really, developers? Ike. That is all. - above-average fall speed of 1.65, and above-average 0.092. She's average too... Corrin shares the same air acceleration, pretty much the same air speed - just off by 0.08 -, fall speed, gravity, run speed, and probably dash to stop and shield in frames. Corrin's Ike if you traded power, weight, throw setups, and horizontally-inclined combos for a spear as a Side Smash and Side Special, a projectile, a better walk speed, and the ability to be a waifu - bara husbando is better, though. :p
 
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Locke 06

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Throwing out these moves in neutral is like throwing out Ike's smashes hoping they connect. Its a super risky idea
Except it's not that bad of an idea. f19 with that range is a call out.

Also, Ike's dsmash is a scary move to get hit by on a read. Or at least, I've been hit with it too much in footsies.

Bayo's grounded side b 1 on shield is basically a mini rock paper scissors game

If you let go of shield to early, you get hit by the back kick

If you attack out of shield, Bayo has to use witch time

If you try to grab out of shield, Bayo can up b

Though there is a window to grab Bayo before grounded side b 2 if you're a fast enough character or perfect shield it
If she's shooting guns, she's going to kick. If she's not, she won't.

Witch time still has startup and she's at a frame disadvantage for hitting your shield with side-B1.

Side-B1/2>wt is not a frame trap for grabs unless maybe vs tethers. Side-B2 is at least -13 on shield.

Basically, no.
 

Ffamran

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Regarding Heel Slide (and not Afterburner Kick), some of the character boards are trying to find ways to combat it - saying countering feels like they've got a true, end-all, be-all answer instead of a way to fight, but not effectively wreck it if y'know what I'm sayin'. Captain Falcon's through crouch canceling or whatever it's called officially: http://smashboards.com/threads/falcon-can-render-bayonettas-grounded-side-b-useless.431833/, and ROB through out of shield Up Smash: http://smashboards.com/threads/psa-...ttas-heel-slide-before-the-second-hit.432073/.
 

FallofBrawl

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Pretty sure Falcon and other fast character can grab her before side b 2 comes out. Like her hurtbox is bigger than it looks.

EDIT: Side B 1 to witch time was used a lot by 9B, even if it's not agreeable by frame data, its a solid mixup
 
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[BROF]

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『 HOLY DIVER 』 Jojo Part 7 best part.
And mr.R ends Tweeks amazing run at loser finals ending at 3rd after defeating both Dabuz and Ranai. He had an amazing run.
If there was ever a good example of a player potential behind held back by a bad character, this is clearly it. Glad he made the switch.
 

UberMadman

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And yet after all the ******** about Bayonetta and Cloud, Grand Finals is still Sheik vs. Zero Suit Samus.
 

Peppermint1201

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Considering the results from Shots Fired, I have little reason to believe Cloud is worse than top 5. He's certainly not at the 'Ness' level of viability the 4BR tier list put him at. His matchup spread is pretty crazy, with ZSS and Sheik being the only matchups we can confidently say he loses. Even then, he can make up for massive disadvantages with a little camping until he gets LB Finishing Touch or just tack on a little percent to use LB Cross Slash or Blade Beam, both of which having completely borked risk-reward ratios. His advantage state is crazy, he has so many good combo starters, great frame data, his recovery is mediocre but still hard to mess with. And in the words of Emblem Lord, there's no such thing as wasting Limit.
 
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Bobert

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And yet after all the ******** about Bayonetta and Cloud, Grand Finals is still Sheik vs. Zero Suit Samus.
At least Top 3 isn't Sheik, ZSS, and Luma. It's ZSS, Sheik, and Cloud. :denzel:

2 Cloud's and a Bayo in Top 5(6) tho.

I really wanted Cloud to take the tournament, but I'm very happy with 3rd at least and the fact that two Cloud's got Top 5.
 
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Baby_Sneak

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this is the last post i'm going to make since i don't think you actually know much about this character.

neither nair or uair have any commitment because they have almost no lag when she hits the ground, they're both safe on block properly spaced, have active hitboxes almost the entire time, and they definitely don't do 3% when the non-bullet hitbox hits.

do you not understand or realize that witch twist has no freefall? or that she doesn't have to land in front of you? she has multiple options she can do after a witch twist in neutral, which is why the move is so stupid. its a non-committing, safe on block, 4 frame move that leads into 30%+ or death.



why would any person playing bayonetta ever do this? like, ever? that is probably the worst move in bayonetta's entire moveset.
*sigh*

You misread. The bullets will do consistently around 3% total for your trouble of holding A the entire time. This is what I was saying. What made you seriously think I was talking about normal Nair and Uair.

You have the following options from witch twist:

Jump (opens up another possible witch twist alongside the other options)
Divekick (FF side B)
Side B
Down B
Aerials

Besides dive kick?? ( need to lab her more), every action you do that leads to into the ground will be punishable because there's lag that's caused from performing witch twist and aerial side B??? The move itself isn't punishable, but the following options will most likely be on shield.

Oh and on that last part, I was talking about forcing the opponent to approach.
 

C0rvus

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And yet after all the ******** about Bayonetta and Cloud, Grand Finals is still Sheik vs. Zero Suit Samus.
Gee, it's like two top players made it to grand finals. Imagine that. Literally anyone who made top 5 could be in grands, last few sets were super close. 2 Clouds in top 5 is also not worth ignoring.
 

Fatmanonice

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And yet after all the ******** about Bayonetta and Cloud, Grand Finals is still Sheik vs. Zero Suit Samus.
But it's still early. Bayo is only a month old and the two Cloud players only just recently decided to go solo Cloud. Consider this a bit of foreshadowing if something big isn't discovered in the coming months.
 

UberMadman

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Gee, it's like two top players made it to grand finals. Imagine that. Literally anyone who made top 5 could be in grands, last few sets were super close. 2 Clouds in top 5 is also not worth ignoring.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely think Cloud is busted as all hell, best of the DLC characters, and a dominant threat... my point is not to forget who the REAL demons are.
 

Trunks159

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Considering the results from Shots Fired, I have little reason to believe Cloud is worse than top 5. He's certainly not at the 'Ness' level of viability the 4BR tier list put him at. His matchup spread is pretty crazy, with ZSS and Sheik being the only matchups we can confidently say he loses. Even then, he can make up for massive disadvantages with a little camping until he gets LB Finishing Touch or just tack on a little percent to use LB Cross Slash or Blade Beam, both of which having completely borked risk-reward ratios. His advantage state is crazy, he has so many good combo starters, great frame data, his recovery is mediocre but still hard to mess with. And in the words of Emblem Lord, there's no such thing as wasting Limit.
:4sheik::4zss::rosalina: then maybe :4diddy:. 5 is kinda up for grabs I'd say:4bayonetta::4cloud::4mario::4fox: fight for the fifth.
That :4cloud: vs :4sheik: matchup though is interesting. One of the only characters that have a realistic chance of beating :4sheik: . :4mario: and :4fox: really struggle much more against her.
 

Bobert

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Don't get me wrong, I absolutely think Cloud is busted as all hell, best of the DLC characters, and a dominant threat... my point is not to forget who the REAL demons are.
Remember when we thought Ryu was much better than Cloud and easily the best DLC character?
 
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UberMadman

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Remember when we thought Ryu was much better than Cloud and easily the best DLC character?
I remember; I was in that group. In retrospect, it was really silly to think that. Cloud has top 3 in the game neutral while maintaining a similarly ridiculous advantaged state, downright stupid mobility, gigantic disjoint, and an anti-camping mechanism in Limit Charge.
 

|RK|

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Things I've noticed recently:

The Up-B nerfs to the two queens seem way bigger than initially thought. I'm seeing Sheik's Vanish miss catching so many more airdodges, and Boost Kick is way more honest.
 

Djent

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1) Nairo :4zss:
2) Mr.R :4sheik::4metaknight:
3) Tweek :4cloud2:
4) Dabuz :rosalina:
5) 9B :4bayonetta:
5) Mew2King :4cloud:
7) K9sbruce :4sheik:
7) ANTi :4mario::4sheik:
9) Salem :4bayonetta:
9) Ally :4mario::4cloud:
9) Ranai :4villager:
9) Ryo :4corrinf:
13) Hyuga :4tlink:
13) 6WX :4sonic:
13) ESAM :4pikachu:
13) MVD :4diddy::4cloud2:
  • Everyone who placed top 16 started top 32 in winners. Only the 2 Cloud mains lost back-to-back sets.
  • Cloud was the most used character in top 16. However, if you restrict significance to top 8, Sheik edges him out.
  • Despite rumors of his imminent demise, Mario continues to outperform characters frequently ranked above him (most notably Sonic and Ryu).
  • More top players were confirmed to have used DLC characters (7 people) than secondary characters (4 people).
 
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David Viran

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Things I've noticed recently:

The Up-B nerfs to the two queens seem way bigger than initially thought. I'm seeing Sheik's Vanish miss catching so many more airdodges, and Boost Kick is way more honest.
Well after that GF I have noticed that boost kick is not any less unhonest than before. Especially since rage boost kick was untouched.
 
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Ghostbone

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Top 5 of the tier list is pretty solidly Sheik then some order of ZSS/Bayo/Cloud/Rosa atm.
 
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FallofBrawl

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I think Diddy Kong can outplace Rosa in that top 5, his MU spread is pretty good and he does well against Bayo (supposedly), Ryu, and MK. Rosa has a fair number of characters that beat her, like MK, Falcon, and there were rumblings of Olimar (?)

But really, Dabuz is carrying that character very well, without him I don't think we would talk about Rosa being in top 5 (Yes I'm aware of the other good Rosas)

EDIT: Is there aa character that outright beats Diddy badly?

Top 10 in order :4sheik::4zss::4cloud::4diddy::4bayonetta::rosalina::4metaknight::4mario::4sonic: and 10th is between (:4villager::4pikachu::4fox:)
 
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Pazx

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I think Diddy Kong can outplace Rosa in that top 5, his MU spread is pretty good and he does well against Bayo (supposedly), Ryu, and MK. Rosa has a fair number of characters that beat her, like MK, Falcon, and there were rumblings of Olimar (?)

But really, Dabuz is carrying that character very well, without him I don't think we would talk about Rosa being in top 5 (Yes I'm aware of the other good Rosas)

EDIT: Is there aa character that outright beats Diddy badly?

Top 10 in order :4sheik::4zss::4cloud::4diddy::4bayonetta::rosalina::4metaknight::4mario::4sonic: and 10th is between (:4villager::4pikachu::4fox:)
Yes, your entire post was about the character that beats Diddy solidly.
 

Bobert

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I think Diddy Kong can outplace Rosa in that top 5, his MU spread is pretty good and he does well against Bayo (supposedly), Ryu, and MK. Rosa has a fair number of characters that beat her, like MK, Falcon, and there were rumblings of Olimar (?)

But really, Dabuz is carrying that character very well, without him I don't think we would talk about Rosa being in top 5 (Yes I'm aware of the other good Rosas)

EDIT: Is there aa character that outright beats Diddy badly?
I think somebody here said Pac-Man beats him and possibly Megaman. Don't know if that's true or not.
 
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Rizen

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In the past :rosalina: was considered the 3rd best. Is she being stepped down, opinions? I have a hard time seeing Cloud/Bayo above her.
 
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DanGR

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My [theoretical] list before the :4bayonetta:/:4corrin: patch was, in ascending order,
Top 5: [:4sheik::4cloud::rosalina::4zss::4metaknight:]
6-7: [:4diddy:/:4sonic:] following close behind.
But I'd probably wedge Bayonetta in between :rosalina:/:4zss: at this point in time, with how I understand the character now. She's strong, but I think there's just enough counterplay to keep her out of top 3, assuming QCDI on witch twist is something the top players will learn- I'm not convinced yet that it's reasonably feasible to perform consistently (did we see this at all today??), but I'm erring on the side of optimism here.

---

Also, Falcon doesn't beat Rosa. At best it's even- likely in Rosa's favor, slightly.
 
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Das Koopa

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So, I'm gonna go ahead with starting on my results-based list for Q1. I'm going to use Top 16 results from:

-Dismantle 2
-KTAR XVI
-GENESIS 3
-PAX Arena
-KTAR XVII
-B.E.A.S.T. 6
-Shots Fired 2

Any other 150+ entrant large regionals?

*Basic reasoning behind using Top 16: Top 32s post-pools are typically where the good players start facing each other. People who place 13th-9th crossed a threshold of some amount of good players, so that's where I start giving points.

Would a system like this work?
13th-9th: 1 Point
7th-5th: 2 Points
4th-1st: 3 Points
 

[BROF]

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『 HOLY DIVER 』 Jojo Part 7 best part.
It is pretty safe to say now that :4cloud: + Fast Character that can net grabs is the best team setup available. The comeback potential is always present, with good synergy benefiting the most from this team layout.
We end up at Local Maxima again. Having :4cloud: take the spotlight of doubles meta. Unless counterplay to :4cloud: in doubles is developed, I can see :4cloud: just being Doubles king.

Before Cloud we had people abusing the best "gimmicks" available like the Bucket abuse, until nerfs took that away. With the news of no more patches coming through we can't count on patches nerfing Finishing touch. Even if a nerf where to come, Finishing Touch wouldn't get changed that much.

For now doubles is looking like 20FF for a good while :4cloud::4cloud::4cloud::4cloud::4cloud::4cloud:
 

Jams.

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My [theoretical] list before the :4bayonetta:/:4corrin: patch was, in ascending order,
Top 5: [:4sheik::4cloud::rosalina::4zss::4metaknight:]
6-7: [:4diddy:/:4sonic:] following close behind.
But I'd probably wedge Bayonetta in between :rosalina:/:4zss: at this point in time, with how I understand the character now. She's strong, but I think there's just enough counterplay to keep her out of top 3, assuming QCDI on witch twist is something the top players will learn- I'm not convinced yet that it's reasonably feasible to perform consistently (did we see this at all today??), but I'm erring on the side of optimism here.

---

Also, Falcon doesn't beat Rosa. At best it's even- likely in Rosa's favor, slightly.
I think :4cloud:, :4zss:, and :4metaknight: clearly beat Rosa though, and the advantages these characters have on her is not trivial. It's kind of a big deal to lose to 3 of the potential top 5, though her relatively great Sheik MU counts for a lot due to Sheik's disproportionate representation. Only considering MUs, Diddy and Bayo probably deserve a top 5 placing more than Rosa; on the other hand, Rosa's third place was never really based on theory and her results played a considerable role. Rosa probably won't drop out of the top 5 until Dabuz stops performing so well with her.
 

juddy96

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So, I'm gonna go ahead with starting on my results-based list for Q1. I'm going to use Top 16 results from:

-Dismantle 2
-KTAR XVI
-GENESIS 3
-PAX Arena
-KTAR XVII
-B.E.A.S.T. 6
-Shots Fired 2

Any other 150+ entrant large regionals?

*Basic reasoning behind using Top 16: Top 32s post-pools are typically where the good players start facing each other. People who place 13th-9th crossed a threshold of some amount of good players, so that's where I start giving points.

Would a system like this work?
13th-9th: 1 Point
7th-5th: 2 Points
4th-1st: 3 Points
-Frostbite
-2GGT: ESAM Saga
-2GGT: The False Awakens
-2GGT: EE Saga
-Tampa Never Sleeps 6
-GUMS 6
-Landlocked
-Umebura 21
-Sumabato 7
-Switzerland National Championship 2016

These tourneys all had 150+
 
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HoSmash4

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SDI doesn't beat witch twist, I'm pretty sure all the top players trying to sdi didn't save them. It can help for sure but no one can sdi that fast.
 
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DanGR

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I think :4cloud:, :4zss:, and :4metaknight: clearly beat Rosa though, and the advantages these characters have on her is not trivial. It's kind of a big deal to lose to 3 of the potential top 5, though her relatively great Sheik MU counts for a lot due to Sheik's disproportionate representation. Only considering MUs, Diddy and Bayo probably deserve a top 5 placing more than Rosa; on the other hand, Rosa's third place was never really based on theory and her results played a considerable role. Rosa probably won't drop out of the top 5 until Dabuz stops performing so well with her.
This all seems reasonable. I'd personally put ZSS & Sheik at around 45:55, and MK & Cloud at 40:60, but I understand this is a very optimistic way of looking at things, considering results and all. However, I also don't think MK, ZSS, or Cloud do better than 40:60 against Sheik, so it'd be pretty massive for Rosalina to have the best matchup of the 4. That puts her at 3rd, in my mind.
 

Vipermoon

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I'm sorry, but what? They're almost freaking identical. Even Corrin has similar mobility! Copy and paste stats, templates, makes easy, simple money. The Fire Emblem cast plus Shulk have similar mobility however subtle like how all of them have the same dash to stop or shield frames, grab frame data, and even moves that it's sickening at times.

I could argue that all of the Fire Emblem characters are semi-clones to each other and it's easy to see with Lucina, Marth, and Roy and Ike and Shulk. Corrin and Robin are basically Lucina hitboxes plus Ike's mobility or worse and a projectile. No wonder the developers didn't want Chrom in because that would be 4 Marths: Chrom, Lucina, Marth, and Roy, and 8 semi-clones: Chrom, Corrin, Ike, Lucina, Marth, Robin, Roy, and Shulk. Am I overgeneralizing? Hell yes, but the point stands that they share similar data that it's really questionable.
I don't agree with this. You need this so a Fire Emblem character feels like a Fire Emblem character.

I think it's more clever than lazy. The amount of work done is the same in most situations (except the two Marth clones). Examples off of the top of my head of FE attributes:

- Robin has Marth's Melee/Brawl autocancel windows (except Nair), Brawl total frames
- Roy with a couple of Melee Marth's aerial total frames
- Roy with the same knockback values and angles as Melee on many moves, especially his throws
- Everyone with a 1.5 initial dash
- Grab start-up data like you mentioned
- The really short (Ike, Corrin) or really long (M, L, R, Robin?) initial dashes
- Roy and Robin with the same 95 weight
- Corrin and Ike with the same 0.092 gravity and 1.65 fall speed
- Corrin and Robin same 1.0 air speed
- Corrin with Roy's Melee 1.2 walk speed
- Corrin and Ike's 1.5 run speed
- Corrin and Ike's 0.04 air acceleration
- Corrin's Melee Marth tipper Fair angle (kind of... 65 vs 67 degrees)
- Roy, Melee Marth, and Melee Roy's 0.03 air acceleration
- Counters to represent the turn-based gameplay and turn-based battle animations
- Robin keeping track of weapon usage/durability is pure Fire Emblem
- Robin's Kris color palette (New Mystery of the Emblem's Avatar) and other palettes' resemblances
- Marth with a Roy palette, an ally unit palette, an enemy unit palette, and whatever else

There's more but my point is that I like all the reproduction. You can easy come up with random, different numbers but why would you when this effectively gives a franchise an identity in a game that represents many franchises. They all do this, it's not just FE. Mario, Pokemon, etc. do this in their own ways in Smash.
 
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deepseadiva

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Uhm I might also be coming around to Kurogane's butthurt. We all know Witch Time isn't fair, and that move alone puts her in HIGH tier - she can steal a game at any single moment from anyone.

But the real TOP tier element is the package of Witch Twist and Dive Kick. Having one is outstanding, but together... the girl has a four frame hitbox spewing jump, and a Bouncing Fish. A comparable package is Brawl MKs Glide + Whatever Special. I think we'll come to see these elements together as very unfair movement.

Baby_Sneak Baby_Sneak points out the designed weakness to this is the accumulation lag, but I don't think this matters, since the wild movement already requires a precise landing prediction, but also the speed to catch her there as well. And even if you get the prediction, and your character is fast enough to reach her, once again there's the horror that is the Witch Time Threat. A simple dash attack punish is already a life or death risk.

Still, I'm waiting for the breakout American Bayonetta to appear. I don't think she can penetrate above Sheik simply because she doesn't have the speed in her moves, and Witch Time gets less and less reliable the better the players are (though never losing how devastating a single Time can be).

She's comparable in power to Rosalina. A package of broken elements, but cannot do everything Sheik or ZSS can. Those two can actually do anything.
 

bc1910

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Without reference to specific numbered placements, this is how I see the general future of the top 14:

Risers/maintaining position: :4sheik::4bayonetta::4cloud::4zss::4metaknight::4diddy::rosalina::4fox:
Fallers: :4pikachu::4ness::4villager:
Either way: :4sonic::4ryu::4mario:

...and potential challengers: :4tlink::4corrin::4greninja::4lucario:

There shouldn't be any surprises in the top group, the vanilla characters have shown enduring consistency while the DLC characters have some borderline broken attacks and attributes.

Pika continues to be carried by ESAM and even ESAM is failing to outplace his top rivals. I don't see Ness dropping much further but his results don't quite stack up with his competitors and he is linear. Villager is almost completely carried by Ranai and potentially goes -2 with both the big DLC threats.

Sonic's results aren't stellar but I fully agree that he lacks top level representation. He is a stupid character and the potential is there for him to remain top 10 or even top 5, but he needs rep. When people talk about Ryu I see nothing but buzzwords like "potential" and "skill ceiling" with no tangible examples of what he should actually be capable of, thus I have no idea what to expect from him. He will definitely drop from his ridiculous 4th on the current list but as I said, I'm not talking about specific placements. His top players dropping him and general lack of results don't bode well and I feel he might just be too "honest" to compete with the cream of the crop. I would lump Mario in with Pika/Ness/Villy but his placements simply aren't faltering, so maybe he has what it takes.

Toon Link clearly has what it takes to challenge some of the top characters. I have no doubt he can maintain his current performance and it might well improve. Corrin has been doing really well, side B is hilarious, no truly abusable weaknesses, definitely one to watch. Held back only by low damage output (compared to the tops) and trouble killing against those who are wise to his setups.

I would argue Greninja and Lucario are the most "top tier"-looking characters beyond the top 14. Lucario has an incredibly powerful gimmick in the same vein as Limit or Witch Time, while Greninja simply has a lot of top tier strengths (mobility, damage output, range, kill power, great projectile) with his main weakness, his OoS game, being barely abusable due to his mobility. Both these characters are limited by a horrible MU with a popular character and these will need to be figured out. Lucario might just be a victim of Cloud's archetype beating his own (camp limit + FT could be insurmountable). Greninja/Sheik could go either way, on the one hand iStudy barely loses to any Sheiks besides Mr. R (I was actually shocked when he lost to Light) but on the other he hasn't played the US Sheiks that are on/close to Mr. R's level. Greninja's MU spread is crazy solid besides Sheik though.
 
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