KneeJustice
Smash Rookie
Edit (1/14/15): Someone shared this on Reddit (shoutouts to CriticalRibbon) so I thought I'd post the link here since there are two parallel discussions and the Reddit one has some insightful things in it as well.
http://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2qvjcb/smashboards_2015_and_beyond_can_falcon_win_a/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear Fellow Members of the Order of the Iron Nipple,
I come to you with a crucial question:
Can Captain Falcon win a national in 2015 and beyond?
If so, how? When? What does it (will it) take?
What does 2015 hold in store for us, and what can we reasonably expect for the new year and the years beyond?
First, some history:
1) In 2012, a similar question was asked: "Will Captain Falcon ever win a National?"
Nevertheless, people obviously disagreed, and despite the high hopes, it quickly became evident that 2013 would not be the Year of the Falcon:
3) Looking back on it, peoples' hopes in 2012 and 2013 seem almost naive. From my perspective, 2014 represented a relatively dark year for the good Captain: our champion Hax$ switched to Fox, S2J had a disappointing start at Apex 2014, and the forces of 20XX seem to have gained a lot of momentum in their teleological march towards TAS-level play.
Hax$ has written that he thinks
Mango to Hax$:
So far, we've seen a variety of opinions at a variety of different points in time.
My final question is whether it is worth characterizing characters by whether they can outright win a national anymore? At the top level, we see a lot of character variety: Mango can go Fox or Falco. Armada has a Young Link for Hbox, M2K of course has Sheik, Marth and Fox, while PP has Marth and Falco. Even Hbox has recently been bringing out a Fox of his own against Armada's YL. Top players playing top-tier characters seemingly can no longer compete with only one main. This seems to be an inevitable part of the metagame, as players begin to refine their knowledge of each others' styles (which is why I personally think Mango has a fair shot: he has the best knowledge of the other top players and his Falcon is not such a common phenomenon that it is well-known and its choices predictable).
So how realistic is it to expect Falcon to compete against the top 5-7 players in the world on a variety of stages that don't favor him, especially when these players can change their characters to further disadvantage a solitary Falcon? Would it be acceptable if a Falcon main switched to Fox or Marth for a game or two on stages/matchups that don't favor him in order to win a national?
Or is this its own type of selling out?
Is Falcon's potential tapped? Is it merely too difficult to unlock?
What can and what should Falcon be, in 2015 and beyond?
Will he be a character suited only for friendlies and styling, or will he be a real tournament threat?
Personally, I'm a dreamer: I think that S2J's recent dominance at SSS, the rising strength and dedication of the Florida Falcons (Ghatzu, Gravy (whose recent thread suggests that Falcon can be further refined) and Wizzrobe) and the manly panache of Jeapie's Falcon are enough to prove that Falcon can still dominate the competition and moonwalk his way to number one.
Here's to Captain Falcon and his stalwart standard-bearers in the new year.
http://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2qvjcb/smashboards_2015_and_beyond_can_falcon_win_a/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear Fellow Members of the Order of the Iron Nipple,
I come to you with a crucial question:
Can Captain Falcon win a national in 2015 and beyond?
If so, how? When? What does it (will it) take?
What does 2015 hold in store for us, and what can we reasonably expect for the new year and the years beyond?
First, some history:
1) In 2012, a similar question was asked: "Will Captain Falcon ever win a National?"
i think its possible, just that skillwise other people currently beat out the top falcons
winning a national with falcon is a near impossible feat at this stage in melee's development, but i'll never stop trying
i'm still getting better at this game and notice like 10-20 fixable mistakes in all my recorded matches
until i stop getting better, not convinced that falcon can't do it
at my current level, i need a good bracket to run deep. Had a good/lucky wins bracket at genesis 2 (despite armada 2nd round). If i beat m2k, then i coulda beat shroomed, then hbox, then..
apex wasn't nearly as nice to me but its a matter of me not being good enough vs peach and not taking care of my body prior to the next day
lol guys u're hilarious
"For Falcon to win a national, the person playing him would have to significantly out-play his opponents and that's all there is to it."
sigh...
just about as much as peach has to
no wait
falcon wins by PURE SKILL because he's fast and does cool combos
just stfu please, the falcon mains are just not good enough, and thats that.
tell me one falcon who even powershields falco's lasers even ****ing once >_>
no wait, why would you completely change falcons worst matchup by just practicing some more
lets complain that falcon gets ***** by people who play like ******s because falcon players never plays gay COUGHHAXCOUGH and falcon players could EASILY win every match if they just played a little gayer
I mean, so what if samus / peach players get a little better if they spam CC (even though falcon still ***** them both 60-40)
do you see them complain about "I can't jump or approach because falcon will punish that everytime with 103810381 uairs"
no, because they don't have the mindset of a ten year old like some falcon mains seem to do
stop kidding yourself please
oh, and I don't hate you guys.
I just hate your feminine side that won't stop complaining.
Yes, for the moment, it seems falcons can't win until they break in their new controllers.
2) At the beginning of 2013, there was some hope that Hax$ could do it:On the tourney Saturday I will convince you that falcons up B is awesome and his oos game is actually good.
Falcon 2012
The debate
Source2013 is DEFINITELY the year of the falcon. Everyone's sleeping on us. S2J wins Apex.
I think it's amazing that it feels like we, meaning us falcons, could be in the grand finals of the next major. Hax literally only has the obstacle of Peepee, Mango, Hbox, and Armada to get through right now. And the falcon peach matchup is baller. I'm going to do my best to contribute to helping all of the falcons improve, and hopefully we can FINALLY get Falcon to the top.
SourceHax will win a national soon.
Nevertheless, people obviously disagreed, and despite the high hopes, it quickly became evident that 2013 would not be the Year of the Falcon:
SourceNo you can't have year of the Falcon every year! lol. Falcon's destiny is sealed.
Sourceyear of the falcon was over by apex. what 2013 will be for falcons is unknown
SourceFalcon cannot win a national. Fox however CAN! Brand new information that was proven at EVO 2013.
3) Looking back on it, peoples' hopes in 2012 and 2013 seem almost naive. From my perspective, 2014 represented a relatively dark year for the good Captain: our champion Hax$ switched to Fox, S2J had a disappointing start at Apex 2014, and the forces of 20XX seem to have gained a lot of momentum in their teleological march towards TAS-level play.
Hax$ has written that he thinks
There was also some recent discussion in this thread (2013 Community Tier List) about whether Falcon even deserves his position on the tier list.no one other than Fox Falco or Marth should win a national from here on out. IC's and Jigglypuff are like minigames for Fox (don't make massive mistakes and you win). Sheik is bad vs both spacies and requires massive outplaying to win. Peach has the 4th best chance of winning a national because she isn't glaringly awful vs either spacie. she's bad vs Fox for sure but her neutral game vs him is still much stronger than IC's/Jiggs/Sheik. Peach can still win *now* but her ability to win will eventually fizzle out as Foxes continue to improve. Armada will tell you this himself.
this game is truly reaching theorycraft levels of play (I'd say it happened this year specifically; go back and watch the level of play at Apex/EVO 2013, it's gross). the sudden Melee boom has caused people to train like hell, and something that has become apparent to me with this year's advancement of the metagame is that Fox and Falco truly SHOULD win every game if they play well enough. when I go back and watch sets of my Falcon, I see so many instances where I'm capitalizing on spacie players' blunders. my strategy heavily involved eliciting mistakes on their end. what is naturally going to happen when spacies players continue to optimize their characters with endless potential and stop making these mistakes? other characters are going to fall out of viability.
Captain Falcon is pretty good in terms of viability if you care about placing top 8, but he's in a tier that should be specific to characters that can WIN a national, not do good in one.
His matchups with some top tiers are laughable, especially against spacies and considering that he's a top tier himself. He's way too inconsistent and he's used too often for people to not know how to handle a Falcon.
I'd say there needs to be a borderline/high-mid tier for Falcon. He isn't top tier worthy but he's definitely doable.
So can Mango unlock Falcon?The circle jerk against the viability falcon is too much lol
Does he perform well in tournaments? Yes. We see a lot of success in tournament and places well internationally. We have S2J, SS, and Lord (and Mango) from WC, Darkrain from MidWest, Wizzy, Gahtzu, and Gravy on the EC, Jeapie and Rocky in EU, Noobking from CAN, and Gucci in JP. Hax's retired Falcon may still be the highest level Falcon has been taken, but it's definitely not an anomaly and I'm sure will be reached again if not surpassed.
Can he win regionals and locals? Yes. We've seen that recently with Darkrain's win over Kels at UFGTX and S2J winning a number of SSS events for an example.
Can he win a national? Not right now. But he has in the past (thank you Isai), and that's more than we can so for other characters. And who knows what will happen in the future. Mango has said himself that the character he thinks has the most potential is Falcon.
man i wish mang0 used falcon more in tournament. he says falcon has the potential to win a national, I wanna see him prove it.
SourceThe funny thing is that he could probably do it better than anyone else currently. LMAO
Mango to Hax$:
So far, we've seen a variety of opinions at a variety of different points in time.
My final question is whether it is worth characterizing characters by whether they can outright win a national anymore? At the top level, we see a lot of character variety: Mango can go Fox or Falco. Armada has a Young Link for Hbox, M2K of course has Sheik, Marth and Fox, while PP has Marth and Falco. Even Hbox has recently been bringing out a Fox of his own against Armada's YL. Top players playing top-tier characters seemingly can no longer compete with only one main. This seems to be an inevitable part of the metagame, as players begin to refine their knowledge of each others' styles (which is why I personally think Mango has a fair shot: he has the best knowledge of the other top players and his Falcon is not such a common phenomenon that it is well-known and its choices predictable).
So how realistic is it to expect Falcon to compete against the top 5-7 players in the world on a variety of stages that don't favor him, especially when these players can change their characters to further disadvantage a solitary Falcon? Would it be acceptable if a Falcon main switched to Fox or Marth for a game or two on stages/matchups that don't favor him in order to win a national?
Or is this its own type of selling out?
Is Falcon's potential tapped? Is it merely too difficult to unlock?
What can and what should Falcon be, in 2015 and beyond?
Will he be a character suited only for friendlies and styling, or will he be a real tournament threat?
Personally, I'm a dreamer: I think that S2J's recent dominance at SSS, the rising strength and dedication of the Florida Falcons (Ghatzu, Gravy (whose recent thread suggests that Falcon can be further refined) and Wizzrobe) and the manly panache of Jeapie's Falcon are enough to prove that Falcon can still dominate the competition and moonwalk his way to number one.
Here's to Captain Falcon and his stalwart standard-bearers in the new year.
Last edited: