Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[fogbadge]

Is it necessary? Eh, that's subjective. But I will say that Toad is, to this very day, the most bizarre omission in this series. I will beat the drum about this until the day he gets in

you and me both

 

[dream1ng]

Personally, I think Captain Toad and Geno are both more likely than Waluigi right now.

I think Captain Toad's chances were greatest in proximity to his game. Lately he's receded in prominence and I don't think that has helped his odds. He also doesn't have much demand to help offset things.

Geno's chances are better than ever before, but who the character fundamentally is makes his selection never not up in the air. Even with his popularity, and even with the remake, as a third-party, you're never not going to encounter choices like, "well we could include the one-off Mario RPG party member... or we could include Cloud. Or Hero. Or Sephiroth. etc etc". And how it's played out so far is the character with the much larger reach gets the spot.

He might have a lot of appeal in the fanbase, but you're foregoing a character who resonates so much more widely (and the audience they bring) in opting for Geno. Especially as a Square character, as he'd probably not be base. And especially in the situation where cuts are entirely possible and they have to consider how the four current Square-related characters are going to be prioritized against newcomers.

Not saying we won't get him, we very well could, but the business behind the character means he's just never going to be close to a sure thing, imo.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I think it would be way better to just go with regular Toad rather than with Captain Toad.
Regular Toad has his built-in stats from the mainline Mario games (fast, strong, low jumps) and he can pull from decades of Mario games and power-ups, as well as from Mario Kart and the other spin-offs and even from Captain Toad himself.
Captain Toad on the other hand didn't really do much in his own game aside from walking around and swinging a pickaxe. I mean his most defining characteristics are the things he can't do - jumping and attacking, which on the other hand are the two things you do in Smash.
Regular Toad is just a way more natural fit imo.

Captain Toad the game could make for a cool stage though, make it rotate like Spiral Mountain but with more drastic changes happening. And he could be an alternate costume for regular Toad, along with Toadette and maybe Toadsworth if they're feeling funky.

 

[dream1ng]

I think the reason people don't go on about Toad much isn't because it's thought he's not "deserving", it's because people have interpreted his continued omission over characters he, for lack of a better term, "outranks" within the Mario series as owing to Sakurai not seeing him as conducive to being a fighter.

I don't think many people actually agree with that, but I think a certain sense of futility in continuing to hold out for Toad guides the general disregard.

 

[EarlTamm]

Geno's chances are better than ever before, but who the character fundamentally is makes his selection never not up in the air. Even with his popularity, and even with the remake, as a third-party, you're never not going to encounter choices like, "well we could include the one-off Mario RPG party member... or we could include Cloud. Or Hero. Or Sephiroth. etc etc". And how it's played out so far is the character with the much larger reach gets the spot.

He might have a lot of appeal in the fanbase, but you're foregoing a character who resonates so much more widely (and the audience they bring) in opting for Geno. Especially as a Square character, as he'd probably not be base. And especially in the situation where cuts are entirely possible and they have to consider how the four current Square-related characters are going to be prioritized against newcomers.

Not saying we won't get him, we very well could, but the business behind the character means he's just never going to be close to a sure thing, imo.

Geno's biggest hurdle is definitely the matter of bringing back the previous Square reps. To me, it's almost impossible to see all the Square character making it to the next game, though in my mind that leads to an interesting scenario for Geno. If they can't secure all the previous Square characters, wouldn't it be a good idea to get some sort of newcomer from the company so it doesn't feel like a direct downgrade in representation?

Do I think Geno would be an equal trade to the likes of Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth and Sora when it comes to wider audience? Heck no, but at least there would be something different when it comes to the selection. Maybe I am just being overly hopeful, but the scenario doesn't feel too out there.

 

[dream1ng]

Geno's biggest hurdle is definitely the matter of bringing back the previous Square reps. To me, it's almost impossible to see all the Square character making it to the next game, though in my mind that leads to an interesting scenario for Geno. If they can't secure all the previous Square characters, wouldn't it be a good idea to get some sort of newcomer from the company so it doesn't feel like a direct downgrade in representation?

A roster that makes notable cuts is going to lose characters to the extent that it's not like the Square portion is going to stand out that much more than everything else, unless they cut most of it. Cuts would presumably come from all over the place, and despite the presence of newcomers, some aspects are just not going to be as represented as they were in the past.

It's also not necessarily a question of securing all previous Square characters, because that already takes for granted that they'll have the goal of bringing them all back, but not be able to. It puts the onus on Square, rather than Nintendo. But if we don't just build off Ultimate, I do not think they'll have the goal of bringing all the third-party characters back, just in terms of resources and priority. I wouldn't try to break it down in terms of per company, but in general it will sometimes more be a question of who just isn't prioritized rather than who couldn't be relicensed.

Do I think Geno would be an equal trade to the likes of Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth and Sora when it comes to wider audience? Heck no, but at least there would be something different when it comes to the selection. Maybe I am just being overly hopeful, but the scenario doesn't feel too out there.

But this is true of any new third-party. Any new third-party would be something different when it comes to the selection.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I think the reason people don't go on about Toad much isn't because it's thought he's not "deserving", it's because people have interpreted his continued omission over characters he, for lack of a better term, "outranks" within the Mario series as owing to Sakurai not seeing him as conducive to being a fighter.

I don't think many people actually agree with that, but I think a certain sense of futility in continuing to hold out for Toad guides the general disregard.

Yes, Sakurai has basically beaten Toad fans into submission. I was a big Toad supporter myself but then I kinda just stopped caring.

However, I think some things have been changing lately. It started with Sakurai posting a picture of Link throwing an arrow at Peach holding Toad the morning before Rosalina's reveal, symbolizing his metaphorical murder (man that was brutal), but the situation has been slowly getting better.
Now, instead of being the butt of the joke, Toad has been getting multiple nods - a full Mii costume (as awful as it looks) and a more active part in Peach's moveset, which is pretty much in line with the kind of recognition other fan-favorite Ballot characters who didn't manage to become playable got (usually either an Assist Trophy, a Mii Costume, and/or a Legend Spirit). It's a good sign!
In the meantime, Toad's standing in the Mario series itself and in other material like the movie has only been improving.
Also, forgive me for being controversial, but I'll say it: it took a while, but Nintendo has finally realized that Daisy is more popular than Rosalina. Miyamoto is similarly on record for being oblivious about Toad's popularity, maybe the company at large is getting aware that people do actually like Toad.

Finally, like for all Nintendo characters not named Ridley, K. Rool or Isabelle (+ Chrom, Daisy and Dark Samus) existing at the time, I believe Toad skipping Ultimate is a result of him skipping Smash 4, a decision that was made like 10 years ago. Things have changed a lot in the meantime.
I believe there's hope for the little mushroom guy again, even in the face of Waluigi and Geno.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

I think something also worth considering is that, despite it not by any means being an "easy" process to bring in third-party characters, it's not like it's impossible - a lot of the time, the main issue is purely cost, which seems to be a lessening concern. Like, Super Smash Bros. as a brand is a massively well-known method of promoting your franchises internationally to, in a lot of cases, an entirely new audience (citations: Persona, and arguably SNK's stuff) - so from a business standpoint, it makes a lot of sense.

I don't necessarily think that, if there are cuts, then there'll be this massive culling of third-party picks, partially because - whatever you might think of it - that's a big part of Smash's modern appeal nowadays, arguably moreso than Nintendo's own candidates. While there's some characters who might be a little too expensive for their own good to include (namely, Sora!), having Ultimate in the bag as the highest-selling fighting game ever and each character reveal being a global event in its own right, is surely likely to sweeten the deal for third-party companies.

Though I'm not necessarily saying you should expect characters like Master Chief or Goku, I do think this'll have the effect of a lot more third-party promotional picks going forward, and less on just "big names". Just a thought!

 

[fogbadge]

I was in charge of the toad support thread for ultimate and the list of supporters we had was pretty long by the end. There’s plenty of people who thought he should be in smash as well as wanting him

 

[TheLamerGamer]

I think something that might get forgotten within speculation circles specifically is that no other characters even come close to having waluigi's popularity among casual players - none of my friends have heard of bandanna-dee and the ones who know about geno only know about him because of people asking for him in Smash.

They all know Waluigi. They all know waluigi wasn't in Ultimate (at least the ones who play games do). They all think he should've been.

 

[NintenRob]

Nintendo has finally realized that Daisy is more popular than Rosalina.

Woah woah woah, let's not get too crazy. I wouldn't say Daisy is more popular than Rosalina, recognisable? Maybe. But more Popular? Nah.

 

[Gengar84]

My list of newcomers for Smash 6
Bandana Waddle Dee
Bomberman
Rayman
Raiden
Aerith
Shadow
Tails
Octoling
DJ Octavio
Geno
Space Invanders
Jin kazama
Snorlax
Slippy toad
Dovakinn
Waluigi
Scorpion(Mortal Kombat)
Takamaru
Shantae
What do you think of this list?

This is a pretty solid list and I’m pretty confident we’ll get at least a few of these. While this list doesn’t really overlap with my own at all, I think most people would be happy to see a lot of these characters. I think a second Splatoon character like Octoling or Octavio is probably the most likely newcomer for Smash. Bandana Dee and Waluigi are also very highly requested so I can see them getting in as well. Takamaru annd Space Invaders would be fun surprise retro picks. Overall, while none except Scorpion are on my own list, I’d be relatively happy with these and most of them seem like they’d make for very fun characters.

Just for fun, here’s my personal top 20 most wanted. I think they’re a lot less likely as a whole than your list but these are just some of my favorite characters I’d love to see in Smash:

Rash/Pimple/Zitz alts (Battletoads)
Magus (Chrono Trigger)
Zegram Ghart (Rogue Galaxy)
Illidan Stormrage (WarCraft)
Fulgore (Killer Instinct)
Sarah Kerrigan (StarCraft)
Alphen and Shionne tag duo (Tales)
Bill Rizer/Lance Bean alts (Contra)
Sub-Zero/Scorpion semiclones (Mortal Kombat)
Xemnas (Kingdom Hearts)
Jinx or other LoL character (League of Legends)
Gengar (Pokémon)
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors)
Zero (Mega Man X)
H’aanit (Octopath Traveller)
Jenna Anderson (Astral Chain)
Etna (Disgaea)
Noah and Mio Ouroboros Fusion (Xenoblade)
Dixie with Animal Buddies (Donkey Kong Country)
Impa Hyrule Warriors (Legend of Zelda)

This list was surprisingly difficult to narrow down to 20. I have a ton of characters I’d love to see like Raziel from Soul Reaver, Nightmare from Soul Calibur, Goombella from Paper Mario, Knuckles from Sonic, Medusa from Kid Icarus, the Black Knight from Fire Emblem, Joanna Dark from Perfect Dark and a lot more but I think this is my top 20 at the moment. What do you think of my list?

 

[dream1ng]

A lot of the responsibility for losing characters is being placed on the third-parties, when I think it's almost entirely going to be Nintendo. I think unless any of the current third-party companies involved go through a major paradigm shift internally, they'd all still be game to be in Smash.

I think it's Nintendo, who if there's a rebuilt roster, just will lack the ability, capacity, and budget to prioritize all these collaborations more highly than the selection of first-parties they want to return, plus a normal amount of newcomers, which will result in the cuts.

More first-parties would be cut simply because there are so many more, which also means the pedigree of some of those characters is much lower, but it would absolutely bleed into the third-parties, because, even aside from the price of bringing everyone back and adding all the new ones, it's pretty unlikely all the third-parties get prioritized above the amount of first-parties that would have to get cut to keep the third-party category mostly untouched. Some are just going to fail to return because their priorities are going to be staggered.

And it's not necessarily going to be dictated by price. It's not going to be a matter of cutting the most expensive third-parties if those third-parties are also the bigger hype drivers and the more profitable DLC characters. Like, Cloud is the most popular character. They'll probably try to keep him even with his price tag. It's likely going to be a mix of licensing and dev costs, number and relation of third-parties involved against the return in engagement and profit on that work. Though ofc being longstanding and what the company wants also factor in, it's not like it's a clean equation.

Yes third-parties are a big part of Smash's appeal, but one, a number will return, and two, many new ones will be added. On that basis, they will perpetuate that enticement. You do lose some consumers by cutting an IP, but that is what happens all the time with third-party IP in fighting games. Even Smash didn't seem like it bothered attempting to get Snake back until 4's DLC. Like those other series, Smash will offset it by acquiring new licenses.

Smash will upset some fans but not risk its success by cutting some characters that weren't even present until its most recent years of content. The prosperity of the series is not as fragile as it's sometimes suggested to be.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Woah woah woah, let's not get too crazy. I wouldn't say Daisy is more popular than Rosalina, recognisable? Maybe. But more Popular? Nah.

Why not? The reactions to Daisy in Smash, in Strikers and especially in Wonder were crazy. Never seen anything like that for Rosalina, not even when she got in 3d World.

But eh, you know what, rephrase it as "Nintendo finally realized Daisy is more popular than what they thought" No need to be controversial.

 

[fogbadge]

Why not? The reactions to Daisy in Smash, in Strikers and especially in Wonder were crazy. Never seen anything like that for Rosalina, not even when she got in 3d World.

But eh, you know what, rephrase it as "Nintendo finally realized Daisy is more popular than what they thought" No need to be controversial.

daisy wasn’t put in wonder cause of popularity. she was put in to stop two girls fighting over peach

 

[NintenRob]

I hope we get an early announcement for the next Smash game. I'm ready for this place to blossom again. Get those support threads open, Rate their chances running again. All that good stuff. I feel like we're at a point now rate their chances will be fun and not just meaningless speculation

 

[Gengar84]

I hope we get an early announcement for the next Smash game. I'm ready for this place to blossom again. Get those support threads open, Rate their chances running again. All that good stuff. I feel like we're at a point now rate their chances will be fun and not just meaningless speculation

We had another fun thread going where there was a rotation so each person could bring up one of their most wanted characters and we’d have a couple days dedicated to talking about that character. I thought that was a fun way to encourage discussion of many characters that might get overlooked otherwise. I was never super into rating character’s chances partially because my favorites are admittedly pretty unlikely and partially because I just enjoy speculating how a character could play more so than if they are likely. That thread was great to have as well for people interested in that area.

Once the support threads open up again, I’ll make a few of my own for my most wanted characters. I never have a whole lot of luck with getting people interested in the characters I choose so they’re usually pretty empty but I still enjoy building the overview page and coming up with movesets, stage ideas, and other things.

 

[RileyXY1]

I hope we get an early announcement for the next Smash game. I'm ready for this place to blossom again. Get those support threads open, Rate their chances running again. All that good stuff. I feel like we're at a point now rate their chances will be fun and not just meaningless speculation

Based on how Smash 4 turned out it's a possibility that this might happen if Smash 6 is coming out in 2025 and we're not doing Everyone is Here again.

 

[Noipoi]

I hope we get an early announcement for the next Smash game. I'm ready for this place to blossom again. Get those support threads open, Rate their chances running again. All that good stuff. I feel like we're at a point now rate their chances will be fun and not just meaningless speculation

Think we’ll see a repeat of Ultimate, where it’s announced the very next year after the new console comes out?

 

[RileyXY1]

Think we’ll see a repeat of Ultimate, where it’s announced the very next year after the new console comes out?

I'm only thinking that's happening if either they do Everyone is Here again or we don't get the game until 2026.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Yeah I think the sooner they announce the game, the more likely it is to be Ultimate 2.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I think the reason people don't go on about Toad much isn't because it's thought he's not "deserving", it's because people have interpreted his continued omission over characters he, for lack of a better term, "outranks" within the Mario series as owing to Sakurai not seeing him as conducive to being a fighter.

I don't think many people actually agree with that, but I think a certain sense of futility in continuing to hold out for Toad guides the general disregard.

I always saw it as Toad is usually just included in Mario spin off rosters because they are Peach's equivalent to Koopa troopa's for Bowser who are also usually in spin off rosters.

A generic "Mook" with no actual character to it. So the Smash bros dev team doesnt consider them high priority compared to an actual character from the series, then again we eventually got Pirahna plant so maybe their fine with "generic" characters.

 

[RileyXY1]

I always saw it as Toad is usually just included in Mario spin off rosters because they are Peach's equivalent to Koopa troopa's for Bowser who are also usually in spin off rosters.

A generic "Mook" with no actual character to it. So the Smash bros dev team doesnt consider them high priority compared to an actual character from the series, then again we eventually got Pirahna plant so maybe their fine with "generic" characters.

I think that Sakurai added Piranha Plant specifically to showcase his creativity when it comes to moveset designs.

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Yeah I think the sooner they announce the game, the more likely it is to be Ultimate 2.

or Ultimate Deluxe with all the DLC and some new content like fighters and stages

 

[Guynamednelson]

I always saw it as Toad is usually just included in Mario spin off rosters because they are Peach's equivalent to Koopa troopa's for Bowser who are also usually in spin off rosters.

A generic "Mook" with no actual character to it. So the Smash bros dev team doesnt consider them high priority compared to an actual character from the series, then again we eventually got Pirahna plant so maybe their fine with "generic" characters.

At the same time, Toad the Toad, as in the one who's supposed to actually be a character, has been a thing since SMB2. Plus, he's been playable in games where you can't play as a Koopa, so I can't imagine that's why they put him in spinoffs.

 

[dream1ng]

I always saw it as Toad is usually just included in Mario spin off rosters because they are Peach's equivalent to Koopa troopa's for Bowser who are also usually in spin off rosters.

A generic "Mook" with no actual character to it. So the Smash bros dev team doesnt consider them high priority compared to an actual character from the series, then again we eventually got Pirahna plant so maybe their fine with "generic" characters.

Well there are toads the species, and then there is Toad, who is the unique, main "Toad". You know, the one in the blue vest with the red spots. He's the one that usually shows up on Mario rosters and in SMB2 and whatnot, and is basically the fifth main character of the Mario series. He certainly has enough to make a moveset out of, over the 30-something years of appearances he's had.

There are also yoshis, and then there's Yoshi, the main, unique one. He's in a different situation what with a very established sub-series, but in terms of in-universe distinction, it's pretty similar to Toad. There is no "Koopa Troopa" who is one unique koopa troopa.

 

[Gengar84]

Well there are toads the species, and then there is Toad, who is the unique, main "Toad". You know, the one in the blue vest with the red spots. He's the one that usually shows up on Mario rosters and in SMB2 and whatnot, and is basically the fifth main character of the Mario series. He certainly has enough to make a moveset out of, over the 30-something years of appearances he's had.

There are also yoshis, and then there's Yoshi, the main, unique one. He's in a different situation what with a very established sub-series, but in terms of in-universe distinction, it's pretty similar to Toad. There is no "Koopa Troopa" who is one unique koopa troopa.

There is a unique Koopa Troopa called Koops but that’s not quite the same thing. Not too far off though.

 

[BuckleyTim]

So we didn't get an event announcement last night; were we wrong on the date they usually announce the new tournament/spirits, or is something up, or am i missing something (most likely option).

As for Toad... I couldn't care less about the fella. I'm sorry, he's just always felt like a character they use as filler (Though I admit this is the anti-NSMB / unhappy paper mario fan in me talking, if anything completing the SMB2 Quartet is way more "important" than completing the plumber Quartet with waluigi)

 

[Sucumbio]

There is a unique Koopa Troopa called Koops but that’s not quite the same thing. Not too far off though.

Who's Koops? Never noticed lol.

 

[fogbadge]

Who's Koops? Never noticed lol.

he’s one of the partners in the thousand year door

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Toad and Bandana Waddle Dee

Founding members of the people keep saying we're not specific individuals club.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So we didn't get an event announcement last night; were we wrong on the date they usually announce the new tournament/spirits, or is something up, or am i missing something (most likely option).

[Event] Original Class of '64 - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

It's the Original Class of '64 tourney rerun like I said it would be.

 

[Perkilator]

Who's Koops? Never noticed lol.

A party member from Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door.

 

[BuckleyTim]

[Event] Original Class of '64 - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

It's the Original Class of '64 tourney rerun like I said it would be.

Well, I don't hate that. If they really did blow through all the spirit events in the leadup to the sora patch it would kinda make it obvious that nothing would happen after said patch. Now we get to spend up to the entire year of 2024 speculating about spirit events!

Toad and Bandana Waddle Dee

Founding members of the people keep saying we're not specific individuals club.

I want BWD but not Toad. I am an open hypocrite and I'm loving it.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Y'all are quick to denounce Koopa the Quick so bad.

 

[dream1ng]

There is a unique Koopa Troopa called Koops but that’s not quite the same thing. Not too far off though.

I mean there's a Koopa Troopa named "Koopa the Quick", but we're talking about unique characters who have literally the same name as their species, i.e. Toad and Yoshi.

edit: yeh

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I mean there's a Koopa Troopa named "Koopa the Quick", but we're talking about unique characters who have literally the same name as their species, i.e. Toad and Yoshi.

Which Koopa the Quick does in Japan.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Which Koopa the Quick does in Japan.

KtQ: I am very quick, except in Japan.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

KtQ: I am very quick, except in Japan.

And China and Korea, actually.

 

[Sucumbio]

/is impressed