Meta Zero's Advice: General Matchup Q&A

[Locke 06]

I really think that we shouldn't review diddy kong yet just because everyone is expecting him to get nerf.

Disagree. There are much stronger things in this game than dthrow uair. At high %'s, diddy becomes Ness. He's not the ice climbers in terms of grabbing, and he's not overwhelming likelike Brawl MK. He's got lesser tools of both of them, but that doesn't make him a god that needs to be nerfed.

Long story short, I don't expect him to get nerfed, but either way this is the game now and dealing with Diddy is important in tournament landscapes.

Luigi's dthrow. I am much more scared of that than diddy's dthrow.

 

[K-45]

Disagree. There are much stronger things in this game than dthrow uair. At high %'s, diddy becomes Ness. He's not the ice climbers in terms of grabbing, and he's not overwhelming likelike Brawl MK. He's got lesser tools of both of them, but that doesn't make him a god that needs to be nerfed.

Well you are right hes no metaknight but when most top players switching their mains to him. he's going to get a nerf in his up air at the very least.

Don't forget they already fix a few bugs and nerf/buff a few characters just in 4 months since the game came out.hell they even nerf little mac (I thought he was bad already) and they nerf the hell out of greninja. Don't forget we are going to get mewtwo being able to download custom stages and much more. The reason they didn't nerf metaknight in Brawl is because they couldn't nerf him.

I'm expecting game balances for the next 2 years before nintendo leaves this game alone.

And I know what u mean Dthrow to Fair Fair but atleast it can't kill at 95%

 

[Fenrir VII]

Well fact is... we don't know what nerfs are or are not coming and Diddy is what he is now. Let's analyze it and adjust the analysis for any nerfs later on... no harm in that, and Diddy is doing well in the current tournament scene (currently considered among the best chars), so I believe it's worthwhile to do this now rather than waiting for something that may or may not come.

I think the real issue for Diddy is how many ways he can land a grab, instead of what he can do FROM a grab... it's more an issue with his setups. I'll type up more later.

 

[ScAtt77]

Well then, one of the few match-ups that I have experience in. Personally, I feel as if the match up is in Mega Man's favor. Banana's are virtually non-existent due to pellets; just by playing Megaman like Mega Man, Diddy's usual banana shenanigans are shut down. In neutral, I've found that continuously short hopping pellets are pretty safe against DIddy. You don't want to ftilt/ jab too much because you have to deal with Monkey-Flip mix-ups, which aren't fun at all and are generally only kept at bay with Metal Blades. Diddy's Fair, Uair, and bair all generally cancel out a single pellet, while more pellets generally will damage Diddy. Megaman's saving grace against Diddy's aerials are his nair buster hitboxes, which will usually beat Diddy in the air if he clanks with pellets.

Leaf Shield is the nuts against DIddy offstage. If so much as grazes below the stage, it usually ends in his death. Monkey flip from the ledge, a common mix up, is stuffed by Leaf shield, so it makes edge guarding him pretty much a non-issue.

As for Diddy's patented dthrow u-air combo, i've found that di'ing up and away from diddy's back to be most effective. You'll probably still eat a bair at low percents, but its much better than being above him and eating 30+%.

(Insert shameless plug of me playing the match-up here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMyoORXuUrA&list=UUFJ48g9BcsNm8P7nWsz-97Q)

 

[warionumbah2]

Well Diddy isn't getting nerfed going with the latest news, so we can't rely on hope anymore.

ScAtt77 gave a wonderful guide on what to do. Does MM have any bad match ups? Cause he seems to have tools to challenge any top tier.

 

[K-45]

Well Diddy isn't getting nerfed going with the latest news, so we can't rely on hope anymore.

ScAtt77 gave a wonderful guide on what to do. Does MM have any bad match ups? Cause he seems to have tools to challenge any top tier.

Don't want to go to off topic Here but ya megaman can definitely hold his own in the higher tiers even aganst diddy kong but he dose have a few weaknesses that other characters can take advantage of. Some examples would be

Megaman has a lot of tools but he dose have his flaws that show aganst some mid tier characters. The only character (in the high tiers) I who I think has a advantage aganst megaman is

Megaman is just a heavy character witch makes it easy for combo heavy characters to just let out 50% with little effort. Lucky she can't kill us until we are at 160% (unless u get hit by her sweet spot up smash) most of my games end off who can land the first kill move. But I have some room it make error cuz I have slower/risky kill moves.

Also now that i've learn the match up a bit more I would say it's around 55/45 megaman dose do well aganst his diddy kong but I won't say it's in his favor. Megaman is just to heavy and diddy kong is more then happy to combo him for days if u let him throw that banana.

 

[ScAtt77]

Personally, I believe that Mega Man does have bad match-ups, if only a handful though. From my own experience, Fox and Rosaluma seem extremely difficult if not close to un-winnable. I've heard whispers of people saying that Samus is another nightmare match-up but, I haven't really faced any Samus at all. Overall, I feel as if Megaman goes even with a large majority of the cast. There are a few match ups where his zoning just decimates the opponent (Luigi, Dedede for example), but I don't think that he particularly hard counters anyone.

 

[iiGGYxD]

just skimmed through the comments and thought i'd just help out with avoiding dthrow > uair from diddy. If you DI away and DJ you will avoid his uair and not have to worry about being frame trapped by airdodging. I practice with 2 diddys on a semi-regular basis, and the only time i'm dying to dthrow uair is when I miss the DI as his dthrow comes out REALLY fast.

 

[BBC7]

I'd like to provide good input, but I surprisingly have very little experience fighting Diddy. The ones I did fight didn't really get me with D-Throw -> U-Air all that often, it seems rather easy to DI out of. Lemons can beat/cancel both the peanut and the banana, effectively removing the use of the peanuts while hindering the Banana's capabilities. I'd imagine that Diddy's rather mediocre and predictable recovery can be easily exploited, especially with Mega Man's great edge-guarding game.

 

[Sorichuudo]

just skimmed through the comments and thought i'd just help out with avoiding dthrow > uair from diddy. If you DI away and DJ you will avoid his uair and not have to worry about being frame trapped by airdodging. I practice with 2 diddys on a semi-regular basis, and the only time i'm dying to dthrow uair is when I miss the DI as his dthrow comes out REALLY fast.

So basically DI up and away, and double jump ?

 

[SSGuy]

just skimmed through the comments and thought i'd just help out with avoiding dthrow > uair from diddy. If you DI away and DJ you will avoid his uair and not have to worry about being frame trapped by airdodging. I practice with 2 diddys on a semi-regular basis, and the only time i'm dying to dthrow uair is when I miss the DI as his dthrow comes out REALLY fast.

Just away? Not Up and Away?

 

[Kiyosuki]

Unfortunately all I can add is For Glory crazies, cause I'm seeing Diddy show up a lot more predictably (and often as that "last resort" pick. You know the type...they use other characters but then lose, so they pick Diddy like "Oh you're gonna get it now!" lol...sorry I just had to mention this.), and he's certainly tough but I dunno, I do feel like lemons and leaves give him a lot of frustration, and z-dropping blades is a nice trap since Diddy's whole style seems I dunno....very aggressively horizontal directioned?

Because his aerials are so stupid good that's definitely problematic and I'd prefer not to get grabbed (leaves help a lot there), but it's good to know there is a way to get out of that dthrow > uair thing apparently anyways.

I'd like to...think maybe Mega has a surprising amount of tools that are very disruptive to Diddy's flow because he seems like such an anti rushdown character in nature, and that the potential IS there...but you'd probably need a more informed opinion on that than myself. lol I don't even have any match videos I can think of to properly display this matchup.

If anything, at least take solace in knowing Mega Man has a good amount of things to infuriate bandwagon jumping Diddy scrubs in For Glory who think he's an instant win pick. lol The fact even that type can be even somewhat dangerous with him though says a lot about the character but no point in whining about it.

 

[M-Z]

Well then, one of the few match-ups that I have experience in. Personally, I feel as if the match up is in Mega Man's favor. Banana's are virtually non-existent due to pellets; just by playing Megaman like Mega Man, Diddy's usual banana shenanigans are shut down. In neutral, I've found that continuously short hopping pellets are pretty safe against DIddy. You don't want to ftilt/ jab too much because you have to deal with Monkey-Flip mix-ups, which aren't fun at all and are generally only kept at bay with Metal Blades. Diddy's Fair, Uair, and bair all generally cancel out a single pellet, while more pellets generally will damage Diddy. Megaman's saving grace against Diddy's aerials are his nair buster hitboxes, which will usually beat Diddy in the air if he clanks with pellets.

Leaf Shield is the nuts against DIddy offstage. If so much as grazes below the stage, it usually ends in his death. Monkey flip from the ledge, a common mix up, is stuffed by Leaf shield, so it makes edge guarding him pretty much a non-issue.

As for Diddy's patented dthrow u-air combo, i've found that di'ing up and away from diddy's back to be most effective. You'll probably still eat a bair at low percents, but its much better than being above him and eating 30+%.

thanks for the video, really helped me out

 

[Locke 06]

Alright. We'll put a bow on this Diddy Kong discussion and wrap it up on the 24th. Be sure to put in some final thoughts!

Our next discussion topic will be Shulk! We already have a thread on the matchup, so this one will be rather quick. Also, it was Mega Man week for the Shulk boards last week as well, so we have their viewpoints to bounce ideas off of. We'll do this for the 4 days following the 24th and keep moving forward.

 

[iiGGYxD]

Just away, not up and away. I tested it extensively with Denti and DI away is always the best option. @ SSGuy

 

[Sleek Media]

Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NRQHu23TU8

Interesting that he can win the match without leaf shield. At the very least it would have been a superior gimp option in the second game.

 

[Rango the Mercenary]

Amidst the few that I've played, I feel Mega Man really f***s up Rosalina and Falco really badly. Both have a Down B, but his projectile game is just overwhelming. In Rosalina's case, she won't always get the Metal Blade, and you can focus attacks on the Luma or Top Spin (dash attack) her while she's using it. Same for Falco, especially since you can just catch your own Metal Blade or destroy it with simple buster shots. If they abuse their Down B, you have the advantage since you'll take minor damage and can punish for a grab.

Mega Man can beat up Rosalina's Luma easily. Bair goes through it and hits her, and he can use any attack to beat her B.

Falco's Blaster pales in comparison to Mega Man's long range options. His recovery is lackluster, as Bair can predict a horizontal and Leaf Shield can gimp Fire Bird.

Rosalina's large hitbox makes her susceptible to Spark Shock (USmash).

They really have to adjust to play Mega Man because their anti-projectile game quickly becomes their weakness.

 

[Sleek Media]

I haven't found any great Falco players, but I can say with certainty that you are greatly oversimplifying the Rosalina MU. A strong Rosalina will teach you very quickly that bAir and top spin aren't even remotely safe, and that metal blades need to be mixed up to be effective. You have to throw the metal blade down, pick it up as an item, then harass her with crash bombs while dancing around and setting up your spacing. Once the timing of gravity pull is right, then you discard/throw the metal blade and go in with a physical. If you keep her on her back heel, you can go about even damage-wise until Luma pops, then it's time to get to work. I recommend metal blades and leaf shield. Her dash attack and grab are still really good, and you can't afford to waste your limited opportunities to stack damage and score KOs. If you can get two leaf shield supported throws in, that's a solid 40-50%. Spark shock is great if you can read her edge recovery. If you do manage to pop her up, air shooter is great since it's extremely difficult (impossible?) for both Rosalina and Luma to avoid a well-placed tornado. You also need to be aware of Luma's position. Sometimes you can use a slide to take Luma out in one shot at the cost of eating a throw. It's also important to know when you have frames to throw the mega upper. Edgeguarding her is possible, but it's difficult due to how long she can hang in the air offstage. Most Rosalina players keep Luma glued to her chest the entire match, but if she does throw Luma out, look for a punish opportunity when she draws it back in. Finally, don't be afraid to throw her - just do it quickly. It's a war of attrition, but I think Mega Man has a very slight advantage.

 

[shinhed-echi]

I'm revising my stance on the Falco matchup. Because after fighting a relatively good one in For Glory, I found absolutely no chance to deliver a clean blow that wasn't a stroke of luck.

His reflector covers as much range as MM's pellets, which means Ftilt approach blows up in my face, and jabbing is almost equally risky. (Almost any ground based approach is ruled out by reflector)
And while Lasers aren't much of a threat, they're still annoying, and still outrange my projectiles. Heck, I'm even sure one laser cancels out a MB or a CB.

I feel that a defensive/campy Falco leaves absolutely no oppenings for Megaman, while he on the other hand slowly chips away until he's ready to KO.

--

But the matchup that I've truly grown to HATE, is:
... What the heck do I do about this guy?
-Projectiles? He stands/crouches to block.
-Jabs? The risk of taking a Master Sword to the face that deals x8 the damage makes me think twice about it.
-Grabs/Leaf Shield grabs? Hookshot (bigger range) or dodge+dsmash punish.
-Play defensively? Deal with arrows+boomerang+bombs.
-Aerials? His Nair and especially his Fair make me think twice about it.
Not to mention I usually can't come down with a Metal Blade because the Gale Boomerang makes me miss it.
Come to think of it.... I don't think I've ever beaten him as
How do you guys deal with ?

 

[ChopperDave]

There are ways to get in on campy Falco. Simply putting up Leaf Shield, dashing up and shielding can give him a lot of trouble, and you can condition his reflector by punishing it with diagonally thrown Metal Blades. I'll have to record a replay next time I play a good Falco.

One of my favorite things to do against Rosalina, when I get her off stage, is to force her to ledge using pellets, then dtilt her as she goes to ledge. I don't think Luma gets ledge invincibility, so this is a really easy way to get him out of the way.

 

[Locke 06]

Please keep this thread to Diddy until tomorrow, when we'll switch to Shulk. Use http://smashboards.com/threads/general-mu-discussion-help-discussion.371272/ for MU discussion that is not on the topic that is currently being discussed.

 

[Locke 06]

More to come

If you could finish this writeup, I'll include it in the summary. With the amount of experience you have in the matchup, I think it would be pretty valuable.

Merry Christmas everyone! Special thanks to Zucco, ScAtt, Iggy and everyone else who contributed. A Diddy writeup will be done over the weekend summarizing the matchup based on everyone's input, but a rough sample of what write-ups are going to look like is in the OP.

As promised, we'll now discuss until the 28th. Much discussion of this matchup has already occurred, so please read the threads below to get up to speed on how various people think about it. If you find something in these posts that you want to discuss in further detail, or something that you strongly agree/disagree with, feel free to bring it up. No toes will get stepped on as long as we discuss in a respectful manner.

Shulk boards covered Mega Man last week.
We have a thread where the discussion has already been started.

Posts from our general MU discussion thread:

I feel vs D3, Bowser and Shulk he can do very well, Shulk especially because in Smash or Buster forms Down Throw->Up Air is horrifying. In buster he takes a clean 30+% from just that and in Smash he can be killed as low as 70% by the final push. Shield Stance also isn't very good since it gives Mega Man some disgusting comboing potentia, seriously I got a clean 40+% every time I got in on my friend's Shulk in shield mode.

Well yesterday the houston scene has a little smash session and tre!la (avoiding name drop lol) the best lucario in brawls life span has been playing shulk for a while because he had the japanese version. I don't want to say too much because ill just wait for him to play people in tourney. I will say he out prioritizes almost everything we have and in the green mode we have little no options because he can go to the depths of the blast and come back with no repercussions its pretty devastating

and my personal favorite post about this matchup:

-Snip-
tl;dr: Zone and keep throwing them projectiles. Don't let them close the gap with jump or speed. Regardless of whose favor it is, just don't treat it like a cake walk

Don't treat it like a cake walk, and this is certainly not a cake walk.

 

[K-45]

I like to play as shulk almost to the point of calling him a 2nd. I have also know this match up on both ends. THE ONLY time shulk have an advantage over megaman is when uses and art to increase his mobility. (fear speed and jump.) Megaman's pellets and out spacing him is key to this match up. We interrupt almost all of his moves with pellets. His best move aganst megaman is Fair as it protects him form a few pellets but never going to save him. Also one of shulk biggest weaknesses is shield grabs since he almost depends on his air game and range. We can also out run him and stop his Nair. Also of note ts easy to gimp shulk but shulk has just as an easy time gimp in megaman. Not the safest of options but we can also gimp him with leaf shield. (Just keep in mind that he dose have a counter can stage spike u if u mess up or if he sees it coming.)

This match up is in megamans favor but only very slightly 55/45. The fact that we can run arounder him and stop his air game in interrupt most of his moves (even smashs) and megaman can out range shulk u just need to learn how to short hope Nair.

When using jump it's about a 55/45 match up. When in speed 55/45 match up in shulk favor. (Lucky this dosen't last long.)

 

[Zori]

My view on shulk has changed drastically from when I made that post but K-45 basically said what I was going to. Buster, Shield and Smash Megaman can handle but jump and speed are still scary.

Leafsheld to footstool gimps all shulk arts except jump btw

 

[Fenrir VII]

I will spend some time typing up my thoughts on Diddy by Monday. Christmas really delayed me but yeah I'll get it done

 

[Spirst]

Just a note: The hyperlink for the D3 MU ratio links to the Kirby MU thread.

 

[Locke 06]

Extending Shulk for another 2 days based on lack of discussion. There is a lot that has been said already and the Holidays have their way of keeping people busy.

Unless anyone expresses the desire to move on to Mario/Yoshi/ZSS right away.

Edit: Fixed Kirby/D3 issue. Thanks, Spirst.

 

[sphenco]

A friend of mine has a mean Shulk. Pressure and peppering with pellets works . And good Blade control plus grab game.

If shulk does speed, expect a rush - pellets should slow him, let him come to your pellets

If shulk does jump then expect an off stage game - watch that long sword reach. Use projectiles instead of sword or claws.

If shulk does Smash then expect him to try and finish you off - wait for it and deliver a punish, up tilt perhaps

If Shulk shuelds then he will be playing it safe - Pepper him and spam. They want to play safe then add up that damage on them from a safe distance

 

[CopShowGuy]

The problem vs. Shulk is that official matches have a timer. You can only pepper and camp him so long before the time runs out. You have to make smart use of his artes' weaknesses to get the kill. That can be difficult sometimes.

 

[Fenrir VII]

Ok so I want to wrap up Diddy. Sorry for the delay here. I have spent some time playing against and as Diddy (which I HIGHLY recommend for anybody struggling with a matchup... You get a new perspective on a char's weaknesses by playing as them)

First off, a little background... Diddy is a solid character. Probably top 3-5 in the game currently. As such, he's going to be a tough matchup for most characters and Mega Man is no exception.
Diddy's main strengths are his incredible grab/combo game, good killer combo with dthrow uair, decent range and priority across the board, dynamic projectiles (which open up the grab game), and good movement.
His main weaknesses are fairly low Killpower outside of uair, gimpable recovery, and terrible air movement.

That last point is probably the most important. Diddy moves like a non fast falling Fox in the air... Very little horizontal movement. He masks this very well with side b, which essentially propels him sideways with good speed, however it is a big commitment for him, as he has to use the command grab or kick, which is avoidable and punishable. He also gets his side b back after a hit, so that helps him when recovering. Diddy players will generally side b before their 2nd jump to gain some distance when recovering without burning a jump.

Now onto the matchup. I think it's very even. We win the zoning game, but he has the mobility to make it interesting, he slightly wins the killing game, and most other areas are similar. The recovery vs edgeguarding ratio is strongly in our favor. We generally beat him in the air, but his ground speed makes stage control difficult.

This is one of those matchups where pellet control is very important. Our pellets cancel his peanuts and projectiles, and generally make it hard for him to approach. He can make up ground during the downtime, so it's important for us to keep moving and jumping to avoid punishment.
Leaf shield is very very surprisingly good in this matchup. To the point that I almost always want a leaf shield up when Diddy is looking for grabs (nearly always). In the neutral, Diddy has very little that can get thru the leaves, if he does not land a punishment during startup. It also gimps the CRUD out of him by beating side b then touching the rockets.

On the ground, he will try to mix up side bs to get close. After starting it, he's committed to a command grab or the kick. Both of these are beaten by a dodge or an attack (fair/bair/etc). Aside from side b, he really can't approach in the air (which makes pellets really annoying for him).his aerial movement is terrible and mostly a gimmick. So predict and punish side b, and it goes a long way to completely shutting him down.
Related to this, get him in the air and you can really punish him for anything. We outrange him with fair and bair, so standard issue here.

When he lands a grab, ALWAYS DI behind Diddy and jump (DON'T AIR DODGE)... Makes it very difficult to connect the dthrow uair combo. If he starts landing it anyway, just mix up the DI and you'll get out of combos. just remember not to airdodge as he can whiff an uair then land ANOTHER one after your dodge.

I get most of my non gimp kills with bair here... Of course look for the utilt opportunities, but he's powerful, so a whiff is very bad for us.

That's pretty much it. Like I said, I'm calling this even. I thought it was his favor, but figuring out his movement has really helped

 

[sphenco]

How about this

The Shulks I fought had trouble with well placed Charged Shots. They may try that psychic counter move but if you hold the charge a little bit longer then you get a free shot.

I know there will be punish opportunities when spamming charged shots but that is why I said well placed. And you might be able to bait with blades and crash bombs.

 

[Locke 06]

How about this

The Shulks I fought had trouble with well placed Charged Shots. They may try that psychic counter move but if you hold the charge a little bit longer then you get a free shot.

I know there will be punish opportunities when spamming charged shots but that is why I said well placed. And you might be able to bait with blades and crash bombs.

I love doing this. A lot of times they'll use the counter to cover their landing. However, if you hold the smash until they're done, you get to hit them harder.
Also, knowing the range of the counter is pretty big too, as you can punish the end lag with a utilt if it whiffs. However, there's 2 grounded counter variations and they're both unblockable.


Okay, Shulk discussion over. Not much to say that wasn't already said, but there's a lot to work with from the Shulk boards to our seperate thread. I'll write up the Shulk discussion over the weekend in the format of the Diddy write up.

We're going to recap the 3 initial MU's that were discussed before the 1.0.4 patch.
(12/30-1/4)


I advise revisiting the posts on pages 1&2. Some of it will not apply, as Rush Canceling is gone and vectoring is changed/gone. Many have noted that Mario gives Mega Man a lot of trouble, so dissecting this matchup with the new format should help alleviate that a bit. The Yoshi & ZSS matchups are somewhat secondary, as they haven't changed much since the patch, but it will be nice to have a somewhat formal writeup of them.

I'm planning to have this topic go until Sunday night and then we'll start with another topic I'm thinking a Sheik week as she's driving the meta along side Diddy right now but there are other common matchups such as Rosalina (which has already been discussed in a separate thread like Shulk) or the Mega Man ditto. If there's a MU that you're interested in having a discussion period on, put a note at the end of your post or PM me.

Also, if you're interested in helping out with this thread in general, let me know. It'd be great to have someone to bounce MU topic ideas off of as well as someone to help cover the topic changes/write ups.

~Locke

 

[K-45]

Well since we are revising old match ups. I think most stuff been said in the thread but i'll give a small recap of what I think.

: strong character with little to lagless moves who can get an early 30-50% on megaman. And his cape is very safe tool he has aganst megaman. We can gimp him easy but I would say it's in Marios favor 42/58.

:with the buffs he's gotten in smash 4 he's giving every character trouble.his eggs arc over all of megamans projectiles. But we do stop his rush down game and we can punish most of his moves. But I gotta say it's in yoshis favor by a small amount 45/55.

Learning when to upper cut Yoshi is a key to that fight

: we out range her in almost every way. I've recently found a ZSS main training partner and made me rethink about this MU. We stop her biggest tool the stun gun and she can't really rush down megaman if u fire pellets and move back. She also has a really hard time killing megaman. I still say this is one of megamans better match ups. 60/40 megamans favor

 

[Fenrir VII]

I feel like these 3 characters are approached mostly the same way. We can pellet stop nearly everything they are doing, but they have the mobility to get through it so it's not the end-all by itself.

For Mario... Never fsmash. The cape is such a safe reflector that it's really never worth the risk. It's also a bad idea to Z-drop a metal blade and stay above him, as it arcs when he reflects it and can hit us like 10 times... pretty crazy. Other than that, it's a pretty standard matchup. Zone him like we always do and he has trouble getting around it. We have to play this one a bit more defensively because he's kind of a tornado up close. stuff his jumps with SH pellets (and retreat if he gets over them), and try for grab > throw offstage. Once he's offstage, edgeguarding him should be mostly automatic. Fair and Bair outprioritize all of his aerial options, so bait and airdodge if he's high, and steal his jump and he's dead. Leaf shield also kind of works, but gets beaten by his upB so it's not the strongest options. Leaf shield does fine on stage against him and stuffs some of his options.
Although anecdotally this has been a harder matchup for me, I really think Mega Man should win it slightly. 55-45, etc.
Dthrow > Bair > 2nd Bair does work on him and kind of counteracts his 30-50% combos.

ZSS... she has a really hard time getting around pellets with anything other than DownB. So watch for that and punish as you can. We punish her HARD on whiffed grabs, and pellets canceling the paralyzer takes away her primary grab setup, so a lot of her combo game is severely reduced against Mega. Long as you play a good spacing game and don't act dumb, I think Mega wins this one at least 6-4

Yoshi... Very very solid character. eggs are annoying against us (although SH pellets cancel them), and his upclose options and crossup dash attack allow him to fairly safely pressure our shield. If he gets in, don't be afraid to retreat and reset spacing. we CAN keep him out, but it's tough because he's fast. If he whiffs a grab, punish hard (same as ZSS). If he whiffs a down B, roll through the stars and usmash at low %s, utilt at high %s. when edgeguarding, pellet or fair/bair to take away his upB jumps, leaf-shield footstool his 2nd jump (very nice in this matchup).
Be very wary of his uair... it's a very good fast killer. Similar to mario, play defensively and take damage as you can get it, then grab combo him and try for gimps.
I think this one is mostly even really.

 

[ChopperDave]

One of my favorite things to do against Mario when he is recovering low or mid is activate Leaf a Shield, run off the stage and snap to ledge just before he uses his UpB, then climb back up onto the stage. Characters like Mario can have a really hard time dealing with this.

Because of the nature of Mario's recovery, one of three things usually happens: (1) the Mario player fails to process what just happened in time, UpBs again but too late and misses the ledge (2) the Mario air dodges or nairs because he tried to buffer a ledge attack or ledge roll, then falls to his doom (3) the Mario player panics and mashes out another UpB ASAP, causing him to shoot past the ledge and land on the stage, just begging to be dsmashed or usmashed.

Some Mario players, once they get wise to this, will try to mixup their recoveries by using UpB early to catch you before you get your ledge invincibility frames. This is pretty easy to bait and punish though -- just run up to the ledge and shield the UpB hit, then shield grab them and toss them back (and short hop throw the LS after them if it's still up).

 

[Locke 06]

For Mario... Never fsmash. The cape is such a safe reflector that it's really never worth the risk. It's also a bad idea to Z-drop a metal blade and stay above him, as it arcs when he reflects it and can hit us like 10 times... pretty crazy.
Although anecdotally this has been a harder matchup for me, I really think Mega Man should win it slightly. 55-45, etc.
Dthrow > Bair > 2nd Bair does work on him and kind of counteracts his 30-50% combos.

This is how I feel about Mario. We "should win" but Mario seems to have a way of being better than I think of him. A lot of Mega Man users have expressed how hard the matchup is while thinking it's in our favor. I don't think we should ignore the results of how hard the matchup has been for Mega Man users.

Learning how to play around the cape is important. Knowing your fsmash spacing (if it's reflected it disappears before it hits you) will help a lot allowing you to keep that option somewhat available and baiting the cape should lead to grabs. The cape reflects on frame 6 and is active for 15 frames but only flips you around on frames 12-14*. When its IASA frame is, I don't know, but knowing that the turning hitbox is only active for 3 frames makes me think differently about the reflector. I don't think it's much safer than Falco's reflector and it's not Palutena status.

In SSGuy's match vs Denti he had a lot of trouble against fireball camping which is similar in practice to Pikachu's thunderjolt camping. Getting in the range where they like to jump>fireball to take advantage of the diagonal trajectory should be your goal, as you can trade fireball with fsmash as they land. Time it right, and they won't be able to cape. When they're not using the diagonal, you should be fine to cancel them with pellets/use pellets to get into the range when they start doing that.
- With customs, Marios might run fast fireball, which is probably in our favor since we cancel them out so well, but we might think about running skull barrier so that we can discourage fireballs in neutral. Just a thought. I have no experience against Mario with customs (note: this is clearly a biased opinion since I don't use LS well off stage/in general).

What gets me a lot (and this happens with Luigi & Doc too) is that I underestimate the range of his upsmash behind him. It's a 9 frame move that can be used OOS, so cross ups on shield are not a good idea against a good player who can do this quickly. Meanwhile, Mario cross ups are quite effective with DAir and NAir, which can lead into the upsmash. I'd rather be in front of him than behind up close, even though that means being at risk of his f2 jab, f5 dsmash, and grab.

What I think we should be doing is challenging his aerial approach with anti-air. BAir poking his aerial approach and, if you see him commit, I wouldn't be too scared to throw in a utilt/usmash to challenge him. FAir can also be used to wall him out, but I think it might start too high & be too slow to challenge approaches. I haven't played this matchup in a while, but I honestly want to try out the idea of abandoning shield for any aerial approaches.

Meanwhile, his ground approach is only okay. He relies on the fireball to cover his approach and get in since he has such poor range on his moves. Dash attack on shield should mean utilt punish. Leave no DA unpunished. I think you have enough time to shield drop, pivot, utilt if he DA's behind you. Make him abandon that move as the risk reward for him is skewed way out of his favor.

While I want to call this 55-45 in our favor, the results speak for themselves. I'm going to be bold and put this as 35-65 in Mario's favor until Mega Man users can prove that we can handle this matchup consistently. It's been said too often that Mario is one of, if not is, our hardest matchup (with Palutena & Samus being mentioned along side him) so I think we should treat him as such.

*Sources: reflect data & Frame data

- ZSS I think is one of our best matchups. In addition to eliminating her paralyzer, we're short, safe, and heavy. She struggles to land kills. 70-30 for us.
- Playing Yoshi feels like playing a good character, much like Diddy or Sheik. Rushing under the arc of the eggs is important, as is learning how to punish his attacks. His aerials are not lagless, but are hard to punish due to his mobility. Yoshi players like to throw out kill moves somewhat blindly to put KO pressure on you since they're fast and have low ending lag for moves that powerful. Learn the utilt as I think it's the most important move in the matchup. 50-50.

 

[ChopperDave]

I think 35-65 is a little too harsh for Mario, but it is definitely a tough matchup. His reflector is one of the worst in the game IMO because it is just so damn quick and tough to punish unless he spams it.

Here are two things I can contribute:

1) Short hop nair is surprisingly useful in this matchup. You would be surprised how often Mario's air game gets short circuited by just jumping at him and nairing, then continuing to walk / jump forward before he can challenge. Because he doesn't really have any solid disjoints in the air, we can often beat his approaches by just spamming short hopped lemons and nailing him with the nair sweetspot.

2) With customs on, Danger Wrap makes this a much, much easier matchup. It is an incredibly solid and quite safe anti-air that we can throw out. Again, Mario has trouble challenging it because he doesn't have good disjointed hitboxes, and reflecting it is almost always worthless. We can also just completely trash him offstage with Danger Wrap.

 

[Fenrir VII]

See I personally think that's overkill... and to clarify my statement, most of my hardships with this matchup were in the past.

Thing is, Mario has a way of punishing you hard at any %s for over committing. Several other chars do this as well (Ness, Pika, Luigi, Ganon, Zelda to name a few), but Mario is a bit unique in being able to put 30+% on you from a grab (one of the matchups where rush canceling is sorely missed), or being able to kill you at 90 or so. So being an aggressive Mega Man player is fairly bad in this matchup.

On the flip side, being a safe Mega Man player gives Mario nightmares. We have the unique ability to pretty much never get close to an opponent, but still pepper them from any angle to do damage until we can get a kill. RE: fireball camping... keep in mind that Mario has nothing that can beat usmash from above (most characters don't). Timed right, it even outlasts a landing airdodge. So a jumping fireball puts him in at least some risk of us running below him > uair, utilt, usmash, whathaveyou.

Your notes on fsmash are warranted. I may have been a bit hasty with "never fsmash", but really... understand the risks that are involved here, as a reflected fsmash is pretty much Mario's most powerful killmove against us. heh.

 

[Locke 06]

35-65 isn't awful. It's not 30-70. That's a +/- 1.5 in MU charts. I dunno. I was thinking of saying 40-60 but so many Mega Man users have trouble with this matchup that I think slightly lower would be warranted. I'll likely end up putting 42.5-57.5 in Mario's favor because I think 45-55 or even is being too nice. That is, unless we get more input from other Mega Mans.

I play a really safe Mega Man and Mario has the mobility to quickly bully his way through. While he doesn't have the option coverage of Marth, it sometimes feels like playing a lesser aggro Yoshi in terms of mobility but with even better frame data. The nice thing is he has much lower damage output than Yoshi and his hits are weaker in terms of knockback. I haven't played the MU in a long time, but that's from what I remember.

Cape reflects with a 1.5x damage multiplier. So definitely. Understand the risks.

@ ChopperDave - would Plant Barrier be better than LS here? More damage & bigger range. Also, it tanks fireballs better... I think. I agree that DW is likely to be our best option for side-B.

 

[CopShowGuy]

I'd love to comment more in depth for the sake of adding to the conversation, but you all seem to have a better grasp on technical data than I do. I can comment on the 3 match ups by saying that Mario has the advantage, Yoshi is about even, and Zero Suit Samus is at a disadvantage. I can agree on those points at least with my experiences against all 3 of them.