While Robin certainly has those problems against some rushdown characters and Rosaluma, she feels to have quite the solid advantage against heavier characters given the power of her aerials, their general lack of answers to projectiles, and their general inability to get past her aerials. DK feels the most out-of-luck, given that his Bair can't be much used against our Fair and he's extremely gimpable-- Ganon, Bowser, or Ike feel closer to balanced, but still with a bit of an edge in our favor, given that they can't overpower us in the air, negate our ranged game, nor simply rushdown.
I saw Mario mentioned as a 'problem' matchup, and, granted, a tough Mario is quite the challenge, but the MU itself feels pretty even... in fact, I'd argue likewise to most 'air combo game' characters, including Pikachu and Fox. Robin's aerials have the priority and just enough speed (particularly Nair/Bair) to control the air game pretty well against all but perhaps Rosalina-- even Jiggly doesn't feel too overwhelming, as there's not enough raw speed behind such attacks to feel any worse than 'even'. The key is that, while combo characters might lay into you like you were Bowser, you'll have an easier time of finishing them off when push comes to shove, and catching them in wind jabs, Arcthunder combos, Arcfire combos, utilt repeats, throw combos, etc. don't need to be as dominating a presence as their constant dthrow air-combos or such to get you 'enough' damage.
I think that there will be three kinds of characters who will potentially struggle against Robin, in any case:
- Those without a strong ground game or good disjointed aerials...
- Those without a threatening ranged game or extreme speed...
- Those without a counter, reflector, or a good grab game/shield breaker...
Now, I'm sure this sounds overly vague and useless at a glance, but it's worked quite well as a guideline for me, at least-- the groupings are significant, though. A strong ground game like LM can really mitigate Robin's air game just as well as flatly 'better' disjointed aerials might, but simply
good aerials aren't enough on their own-- Falcon and Jiggly don't feel to be at any advantage in their usual aerial games, as they lack the disjointed hitboxes, but Marth feels to be about
even. Rosalina is the only one who feels to be 'better' in the air, if only because she has good aerials that are even more disjointed. The 'ranged or speed' bit is a matter of forcing Robin to be outside of comfortable spacing-- rushing down or forcing an approach through superior ranged presence both suit that method, so Sonic and DHD won't find themselves with any terrible issues against Robin's usual zoning pressures. The bit on counters, reflectors, or good grabs will seem weird, but Robin's key strength is how useful and viable
all of those attacks are... limitations imposed by counters eliminating some combinations, (and wind jabs entirely), or reflectors stopping a lot of non-Arcfire, non-Thoron projectiles, or just a good grab cutting into options like shielding or tilts or the like... limiting Robin's core strength of
flexibility makes the MU inevitably easier for them. And that's the heart of it, really-- MUs where Robin has every move as a viable option are nightmares for ur foes, but those who force us into really strict strategies (i.e. 'gimp little mac') are difficult specifically because that 'focused' style forces predictability into a character that, by nature, feels to rely on reads, punishes, and a general
lack of predictability to be successful. While Marth's Fairs are so typically safe or Mario's fireballs are simply spammable, it's almost a
lack of consistency that defines Robin's style.
But yeah, characters who have several of those traits (LM has good ground, speed, and a counter, Rosalina has good disjointed airs, ranged game, and so on) will invariably find the matchup nearer to equal or in their favor, while those with one or none (Dedede, Falcon, Jiggly, and poor poor DK) will likely find themselves at an equally mild disadvantage...
That all said, whenever I play as Robin, or see Robin played, I'm always struck by this staggering sense of potential similar to Rosalina-- the 'why' of it isn't so obvious as Luma, in this case, but I do feel like seeing a Robin a few years out at the highest levels of play would absolutely floor us beyond belief-- I can
imagine the heights Rosalina might hit, but it seems like I can't even fathom a top-level Robin's play. For days I mistook that for thinking Robin didn't cut it at higher levels (stupid, I know, but everyone goes on a salty tilt once or twice >//<); yet... with a clear head, it's feeling far more like I can't imagine it simply because there's so many branches to Robin's play. I feel like there's some massive depth of mechanics we're not even seeing the surface of scratched, at least. Robin's certainly no Metaknight of unstoppable power, but I think top-tier Robins are going to look more unusual and flat
different from what we're used to that it'll draw parallels to Megaman's by playing remarkably unique... albeit with far more flexibility, like Rosalina feels to have.