55:45
I've secondaried (previously mained) Lucas since his release, so I have a bit to say here.
As per usual, this match up can be pretty patient. Lucas is a very reactionary character who will do his best to zone you out from mid range. He does this primarily by using Zair and PK fire. The Lucas player's neutral game will likely revolve around these two moves, as they are his safest pokes, and Zair has potential followups if he hits his opponent while landing with it. In close quarters, he has Jab, Dtilt, and Ftilt. All of these moves are very fast, and Dtilt will usually lead into grab.
You do not want Lucas to grab you. Be very careful with spin dashes (as Lucas can potentially pivot grab them on reaction), and choose your options wisely when close to him. On the topic of spin dash, Lucas is able to Nair you out of it. In my experience, it won't always work, but it's reliable enough that you should be wary of it. Similar to landing a grab, Lucas can wrack up tons and tons of percent off of a Nair. At low to mid percents, the move will lead into itself as well as other aerials.
As for us, I believe we want to play a bait heavy game in general, and be very defensive when we have a significant lead. Lucas can play very safely if he wants to, but you can nail him hard when you force him to commit, particularly to a grab. The FAF being reduced was a huge buff, but it's still quite punishable if you anticipate it. A couple ways you can bait out his grabs:
- Short hop a lot. Typically not the most amazing option with Sonic, but it comes in handy during this match up. Lucas doesn't have any particularly fast aerials to swat you out of the air with, so you don't need to fear jumping around him to much (be wary of short hop Fair/Nair, however). If the Lucas gets antsy, you may be able to punish a grab attempt. If he gets too scared, you can get him with a tomahawk grab of your own.
- Spin Dash > spot dodge. This was something I learned when I watched Komorikiri battle Nairo at Umebura F.A.T. Komo did a lot of spot dodges out of spin dash, which baited out a lot of laggy grabs from ZSS. The same thing can be applied here with Lucas. Most of the time, the other player will likely expect you to cancel spin dashes with shield. Spot dodging immediately can throw them off guard when they try to grab you.
Our biggest advantages in the match up overall are our speed (duh), and superior ability to play safe. Lucas is not particularly quick himself, so it isn't hard for us to run circles around him if the player isn't alert. Additionally, he must commit much harder than us if he wants to get his biggest rewards. Thanks to how fast we are, we have great capability to break through Lucas's zoning and punish him better than most characters. For example, if you predict a PK fire, running up and perfect shielding it (heck, sometimes even regular shielding) will give you an opportunity to punish. However, the exception to this is if Lucas wave bounces PK fire. Should the Lucas player do this, you will have a very hard time punishing it. Being so much faster also allows us to camp quite effectively if need be.
Lucas's biggest advantages in the match up are that he has the potential to kill significantly earlier than us, and he has a better off stage game. Using Bthrow (or even Fthrow) at the ledge, we can be killed as early as 80% with rage. Uthrow kills at roughly 130% with no rage (much earlier if used on a platform), and Dthrow > Uair will kill a little after 100%. Plus, his smashes all kill quite early as well if he gets those reads. We must also be cautious off stage, because there are several tricks Lucas has up his sleeve. Bair and Dair both have the potential to spike us out of our recovery if he catches us at the end of it. Lesser known (but still deadly) things he may go for are FF Nair off stage or PK thunder under the ledge. FF Nair off stage will drag you down without catching you in the final hit, potentially pulling you to your doom. Fortunately, we are not as susceptible to this as most characters since we have an excellent vertical recovery. PK thunder under the ledge can catch the end of our up b fairly well, and it can even stage spike! That could prove fatal if you aren't on the alert for it. It isn't particularly common for that to happen, but it has the potential to take your stock pretty early.
Weighing the two characters strengths and weaknesses against each other, I think Sonic wins, but only by a bit. Both have excellent defensive games, and can camp each other out very well. However, Sonic does it slightly better since it is harder for Lucas to break his defense in comparison to vice versa due to the disparity in mobility between them. As I said, Lucas can kill us way before we can kill him, but only if he commits. We may take stocks later, but we get to remain much safer while doing it, and I think that is a greater advantage than what Lucas has simply because the risk is marginally lower.
So yeah, Sonic's favor, but I don't think it's impossible by any means for Lucas.
VS
I don't have as much to say here since I'm less experienced with it and I'm kind of tired from writing the above essay, but my experiences so far leave me seeing it as 60:40 Cloud's favor. I think this because Cloud's tremendous range coupled with great frame data and damage output makes him a terror to attempt approaching, and he invalidates our defensive tactics somewhat by getting to charge limit for free. Our obvious advantage is that we bop him off stage.