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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
Premium
Joined
Apr 4, 2014
Messages
1,200
Location
Florida
New Palutena's Guidance Conversations
Chance: 4%
They already made one specifically to deal with any and all DLC characters that they might end up making. If there's any chance of this happening, they'll rehire the voice actors after all the DLC content is said and done; although, at that point I doubt they'll even bother. I'll give Palutena's Concept a 4% chance.
Too much of a hassle...

Want: 100%
I'd enjoy hearing new conversations if both the developers and the voice actors are willing.


R.O.B.'s Eye Glitch Fix
Chance: 93%
It's a glitch, and they've gone back to fix many glitches already (As a Toon Link main, I know. They've fixed three different glitches/exploits so far related to the character). I'm sure they'll give R.O.B. some attention eventually as there are still plenty of patches this game will likely go through in the future. I'll give the concept of fixing R.O.B.'s eyes a score of 93%.
It would surprise me greatly if they didn't do anything about it...

Want: 100%
It's a bug, and I would like this game to be as polished as possible when everything is all said and done.

Prediction - Micaiah: 4.6%

Nominations:
x3 !Rerate: Inklings
x2 Tails the Fox
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
New :4palutena: Guidance Convos

Chances : Little to None ( 0.9% )
If Mewtwo and, likely Lucas didn't get one, i can't see this coming to Smash Bros anytime soon.

Want : 100%
I'm a major sucker for Smash Taunts.

:4rob: Eye Bug Fix

Chances : 31%

Programmers often let minor bugs slip past them, so...

want : 7%

I don't main Rob, so i happen not to care. Why are WE carin' about a minor bug? You should be fighting rather than staring at those robo eyes of his, and i heard this doesn't happen alot even.

Micaiah : Below 20
We've been here and there with Fire Emblem. And it's quite clear that we won't and don't want to see another one of them for quite a while.

NOM NOM NOM NOM NOMINATIONS!!!
Jin Kazama (Tekken) x3
Black Shadow (F-Zero) x2
 

4theRECORD

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
264
Location
Kanto,Japan
3DS FC
2878-9708-8635
Guidance:20%Chance 100%Want
R.O.B. Glitch:99% Chance 50%Want

Micaiah prediction:15% Chance

nomination:Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
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New :4palutena: Guidance Convos

Chances : Little to None ( 0.9% )
If Mewtwo and, likely Lucas didn't get one, i can't see this coming to Smash Bros anytime soon.

Want : 100%
I'm a major sucker for Smash Taunts.

:4rob: Eye Bug Fix

Chances : 31%

Programmers often let minor bugs slip past them, so...

want : 7%

I don't main Rob, so i happen not to care. Why are WE carin' about a minor bug? You should be fighting rather than staring at those robo eyes of his, and i heard this doesn't happen alot even.

Micaiah : Below 20
We've been here and there with Fire Emblem. And it's quite clear that we won't and don't want to see another one of them for quite a while.

NOM NOM NOM NOM NOMINATIONS!!!
Jin Kazama (Tekken) x3
Black Shadow (F-Zero) x2
It happens every time you play in the standard smash modes in the Wii U version. You know, the mode where most will spend most of their time in.

Also does anyone know if this happens online or not?
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Schedule reminder... (also @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice , reminder I'll figure up the R.O.B. eye glitch fix scores tomorrow and message it to you so you can post it all in the same message).

Also, I think we need to have an emergency rating tomorrow since it's the last day before RTC E3 week.

Stage DLC besides Miiverse and Themed Stage packs DLC both need to be rated and discussed (as they are extremely likely to happen on Sunday), and if they are confirmed then, the several people who have rated for themed stage packs will have wasted their nominations. I propose tomorrow either be a triple day, or we postpone Micaiah until we return on Day 62 (with no prediction scores for the stage stuff). No matter what I'm glad to help cover the extra workload.


June 11th - Day 61: Micaiah, no predictions this day (but nominations allowed).
starting Friday, June 12th - Pick Your Top 3 Most Overrated and Top 3 Most Underrated RTC characters so far, and also discuss who you think is the most accurately rated character.
starting Saturday, June 13th - discuss your most hyping and deflating Smash 4 related moment, pre- or post-release; discuss the Smash Mini-Direct.
starting Sunday, June 14th - Nintendo Event Predictions and E3 Discussion
You can discuss all the conferences here, although expect the main focus to be on Nintendo.
Talk about your reactions to the Bethesda, Microsoft, EA, Ubisoft, and Sony events.
Talk about the Nintendo Digital Event, and the Treehouse stuff. Anything related to E3 2015.
starting Tuesday, June 16th - Cooldown Day
starting Wednesday, June 17th - Nintendo's E3 Digital Direct Satisfaction Scores
Rate your Satisfaction with the entire Nintendo Digital Direct
Rate your Satisfaction for the Smash Mini-Direct
Rate your Satisfaction for each character announced
starting Thursday, June 18th - Most Overrated / Most Underrated Rerate Day
We rerate the two characters as chosen by you. Get em right this time!
Everyone gets a bonus 15 nominations this day! We may be introduced to new characters, we may have DLC confirmations, characters we've already rated may have been given major roles that we didn't anticipate, etc. This will surely change our perceptions of multiple characters, and you can spend these bonus nominations accordingly to what it is important to you guys to rate or rerate.

starting Friday, June 19th - we resume business as usual. Day 62.
Sorry for the late reply, I've been working all day.
Yes we probably should make the next update a triple day and rate "themed stage packs" and "stage DLC besides Miiverse". Sadly we can't do predictions for them as this day's almost over.
 

Sarki Soliloquy

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
Messages
2,793
Location
Andover, MA, USA
Yeah, I get ya. I basically have a quarter of one half of every weekday devoted to my job! I only have so much time to go on Smashboards for this season.

Just let it be know I'm in the process of constructing my ratings. I promise not to lag you past 10 PM EST!
 
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Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Palutena New Guidance:

Chance: 40% Could happen but slightly leaning low. It'd be a hassle to get the voice actors to record new lines every month. But who knows.

Want: 100% Definitely.

R.O.B eye fix

Chance: 75% Seems to be a minor glitch and they could definitely fix it some time in the future.

Want:100%

Prediction:

Micaiah: 6.44%

Nominate Mother 3 Stage x4

Lloyd Irving x1
 

PreedReve

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
416
New Palutena's Guidance
Chance: 1%. Sadly I think this is a long stretch, considering they already have that lame DLC one.

Want: 100%. I'm sorry but who wouldn't want more?

Rob's Eye Glitch
Chance: 100%. It's a glitch and they're pretty good at fixes glitch.

Want: 100%

Micaiah Prediction
Chance: 5%

Nomination
Style Savvy Rep x5
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
New Palutena's guidance conversations
Chance: 1%
Want: 50%

Fixing ROB's eye glitch
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Micaiah prediction: 3%

Nominations: Aqua x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
CONCEPT - NEW PALUTENA'S GUIDANCE CONVERSATIONS
CHANCE: 14.33%
WANT: 73.82%

CONCEPT - FIXING ROB'S EYE GLITCH
CHANCE: 72.69%
WANT: 82.07%
Special thanks to PK_Wonder for getting most of the Rob's Eye Glitch scores calculated. Next up we have a triple day.
1. Rate Micaiah of Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn.
2. Rate the concept of themed stage packs.
3. Rate the concept of us getting any stage DLC besides Miiverse.
No predictions today because we're starting E3 week tomorrow. :)
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Micaiah:



Okay, I do not think I will extend much, but try to give the points to keep in mind now.

What exactly do I think about the odds that Micaiah is a playable character? Well, they are not exactly the best. But I think she has some advantages on her side.

First, let's talk about the obvious: It's a female character (and a female that isn't a custome), I do not really stretch out with this as anyone will have their arguments and counterarguments for this, but if I'm not mistaken, this Smash had as one of its purposes to add more female characters to the game ... which is obviously a small, but still a plus point. And of course, another point just short leave but will mention it anyway: She is a character in Fire Emblem; we don't know exactly Sakurai's opinion about her, but the she belong to a franchise with which the Creator is familiar obviously help.

Okay, now you starting with what really matters... What could she have to help when considered among other characters? Especially we compared her with other Fire Emblem Characters.

I can almost assure that she is the Fire Emblem protagonist (not already in Smash, because Marth and Ike are the franchise spotlight, Roy's Our Boy, Lyn also because she is the first lord to arrive in a actual Fire Emblem Game to the West, and the three Awakening MC: Robin, Chrom and Lucina are the most known characters in the past three years)... most knowly... most popular... most talked? ... is somewhat difficult to describe her situation, she is loved by many, and others less so. Whatever the case, she has remained as an occasional topic of discussion in some places... Also, I don't know if this counts, but Micaiah has more content drawn on Japanese sites that other protagonists in the series (except some knowly special cases like Lucina).

Now, her support in the Fighter Ballot... I don't know really, the Fire Emblem support is a little bit... small (lol) in general, mainly by the issue of "over-representation"... But I believe Micaiah is one of those characters who have had more support between all the options (but still small).

And finally, we come to the part I think is the most important ...
What did she has to make her inclusion a great option and a interesting character?

She is a user of magic, which are obviously not exactly common in Smash, and compared to there, it could be more dynamic, considering her physique would be a faster character than their... She is fragile, but with several options to punish their opponents, either short or long range with her magic and possibles combos. She probably don't has to much power in her physical attacks, but with a little bit powerful magic-based attacks, specialy with some ones particulary dangerous... but something left, she has a very special tool: the Staffs, this things in the games have special properties depending on the chosen, usually for treatment status changes, but also it serves to affect the enemy (provoke status changes), to affect the map, or to move units.

... Well I don't sure about a specific play-style (but probably a mix between zoner and glass cannon)... But I (with a friend's help) try to do some moves...

"Neutral B: Light: Micaiah shot a light magic's attack, is don't particulary fast and have short range, explotes with the contact or after 5 seconds, can be charged and gained a great kill power.

Side B: Torch/Berseker/Sleep Staff: Micaiah attack with a Staff, the move have low hitbox, but a special efect, it's efect varies with each hit.

- Torch Staff: With the hit make Fiery Effect Damages, if the opponent is looking her, for the light from the Staff, make the opponets stunned. It is the variation of this move that does more damage.
- Berseker Staff: With the hit make the enemy had reversed controls. Do a little bit less damage.
- Sleep Staff: With the hit make the enemy Sleep, don't do damage.

Up B: Rewarp: It's simple: Micaiah use a Staff to warp herself (maybe I need to put a other special effect, but I don't know).

Down B: Thani: Something similar to the Palutena's Fireworks, but with different trayectory: Micaiah create a magic spell a moves it from beneath her, moves diagonally, until up to the height of her upper body, explotes in the final of it's way.

Final Smash: Rexaura: Micaiah invokes a big light magic sphere from the Sky, if some opponent is hit by the sphere they will be caught inside and taken to the place (the floor) where will explode and caused a powerful Knockback.

... And, I think that I finish"

Chance: 20%

Want 100%

Hell yeah! I want her in Smash above any other character... Seriously!... I think taking the time to write a much longer comment than I usually do and it is sufficient proof of my interest.



I in my free time

Concept: Stage besides Miiverse: (Eh...This isn't already confirmed with the Pupuku? Land Leaked (Dream Land) Stage? Anyway...)

Chance: 99%

Practically my reasons to ensure this are the same as with Roy.

Want: 100%

Yeah! Sounds cool have other things besides characters and customes.

Concept: Theme Stage Packs:

Chance: 33%

I see quite possible, though not how easy it successfully export scenarios ... and of course, collecting enough to warrant thematic packs.

Want: 50%

Some older stages I like, other I don't care personally.

Nominations:

!Rerate Inkling x2
Tiki x2
Adeleine x1
 
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Sarki Soliloquy

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
Messages
2,793
Location
Andover, MA, USA
EDIT: I've noticed that yesterday's ratings have expired by the time of posting. Oh well, still got it through even if it won't get counted. I'll put out today;s triple rating later today.

I'd imagine this would be a redundant entry now. If you're up for it, I guess you can read my Palutena's Guidance Rating. I put a lot of effort into it. Want some quick entertainment before plunging into today's discussion? I will be really thankful if you read it and liked.

So much for editing in alpha channels.


RATINGS

Concept: R.O.B. Eyes Glitch Fix

Chance - 50%:
Apparently, this glitch has been discovered as far back as v1.01. It's really baffling why this has somehow gotten under the radar for so long now. You'd figure the devs would have noticed something was off with its head and eye animations between 'Smash' & 'Games & More'.

The main reason why they probably haven't fixed it is because they though it didn't interfere with the gameplay. It's just very disappointing since all characters in this game have had increased emphasis on expression. Especially with how static they were for the Brawl veterans. Also, as someone who studies animation, I'm sure even a little detail like that would be a huge disappointment to only have it show up so many times in game. It's like your work will only be displayed half the time.

With Lucas's patch coming up, we have yet another chance to fix this minor bug. We can only hope they finally get it over with.

Want - 75%: I could really care less if the glitch got it patched or not. I'm all for fixing vestigial glitches though, so I definitely laud it. Definitely adds a new layer to R.O.B.'s personality (or lack thereof). Would love to see its enhanced eye animations and neck pivots more.

PREDICTIONS

Concept: DLC Stages/Themed Stage Packs

Chance - 99.95%
Want - 100%

Concept: Alpha Form Stages


Chance - 56.78%
Want - 89.90%


Micaiah

Chance - 12.34%
Want - 11.95%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x2
*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x2
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x1
 
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JBRPG

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 6, 2009
Messages
376
Location
USA
Micaiah
Chance: 20%
Want : 10%

DLC Stages / Themed Stage Pack
Chance: 60%
Want: 90%

Alpha Stages - (Battlefield Variety)
Chance: 5%
Want: 40%

Nomination: Medusa x 5
 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
Writing Team
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trpdm.wilton
Fire Emblem #6
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%

DLC Stage
Chance 99%
Dreamland 64 on 3DS
Want: 100%
More Stages, More Music, More Stuff.

DLC Stage them pack:
Chance 10%
They'll probably just do what they've been doing with characters.
Want: abstain
I don't care if the stages are a part of theme, But I welcome more stages.

Nominate: All cut characters returning x5

Prediction: HYPE%
 

Strider_Bond00J

Smash Champion
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la-lio~n~
Switch FC
SW-2525-8699-9095
Micaiah Chance: 3.01%
Robin has overtaken Micaiah as Fire Emblem's 'Magic Knight' character in Smash Bros.

Want: Abstain
My stance on every Fire Emblem character we rate
As much as I love Fire Emblem, all I could ever ask for from this series at this point in time is Roy.
Admittedly I've never played Radiant Dawn, but I believe Ike is the ideal character to celebrate the Tellius series. Maybe when FE 9 and 10 are remade and if we get a Fire Emblem fighting game, I'll have a better understanding of her.

(I've combined both concepts)
Both Non-Miiverse stages and themed stage DLC Chance: 84%

Want: 100%
As the Squid Sisters end their show, "Stay fresh!" New stages is always nice.

May as well nominate Jin Kazama X4 (Tekken) and Inklings X1
 
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BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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Nominations:
X5 Isabelle

I don't think Micaiah holds much ground with her inclusion especially IS is focusing on If right now, Sakurai would likely add Kamui before her.
 
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Zerp

Formerly "ZeroSoul"
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I will do the others later, for now just Micaiah, son of Imlah!
Representante Sexta Fire Emblem Micaiah! Oh no I have a feeling I butchered that Spanish didn't I?


Chances: 0.01% Micaiah is a prophet who is the son of Imlah...wait wrong Micaiah. Micaiah is one of two main protagonists of Radiant Dawn along with her buddy, Ike who apparently save a land called Crimea, which strangely, has nothing to do with the actual Crimea. Unfortunately for her, there are already five fire emblem characters, one from her own game, and I doubt Ike's game needs more representation. Fire emblem as a whole is already repped well enough, in fact you could say it's lucky to even have this much, so I doubt it would get any more after Roy. And if another were to somehow get in, it would be from IF most likely.

Want: 0% No more Fire Emblem characters please, we have waaaaaaayyyy toooo muuucccchhhhh for it's size already, it would be a diservice in my viewpoint to all the other fanbases if even more Fire Emblem got even more reps. Seriously, 6 reps for a 13 million$ franchise? Mario has 10 reos, at 500+ million$. 500/13 does not = 6/10. Obviously we don't have to go by exact numbers, but I think my point's pretty clear, Fire Emblem is kinda pushing it. Seriously, I'd be pretty upset if another after Roy got in anytime soon.


Nominations: Dark matter x 4
Bubsy x 1
(Why am I doing this)
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
1. Rate Micaiah of Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn.
2. Rate the concept of themed stage packs.
3. Rate the concept of us getting any stage DLC besides Miiverse.

Alllrighty. Let's do this.

Micaiah

Chances : 4%

Nobody in community wants any more Fire Emblem, yadda yadda yadda...

want : 17%
I don't care.

Themed Stage Packs

Chances : 45%

Want : 100%

Sounds fun!

Stage DLC Besides Miiverse

Chances : 54%

Want : 100%

This sounds fun too.

And as usual with the NOM NOM NOMINATIONS, i go for...

Jin Kazama ( Tekken ) x3

Black Shadow (F-ZERO) x2
 

Smasher 101

Smash Lord
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Jul 21, 2013
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3DS FC
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Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
The winners of the extra nominations today are @ Aetheri Aetheri for Palutena's guidance and @ ShinyRegice ShinyRegice for R.O.B.'s eyes.

(Today has taught me that I should probably tally up the predictions earlier than I have been; it took me an hour to get all the predictions out of Bayonetta's day, thanks in part to my lackluster internet...)
 
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Champ Gold

Smash Scrublord
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Aug 11, 2014
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I need that Old Spice Commercial edit of RD's plot because it sums up my thoughts on Micaiah


Micaiah
Chance:0%
Want:0%
Do I need to talk about her. She's the worst lord in series, most unlikable MC in the series, :4myfriends: over shadowed her completely in the second half of RD, any magic gimmick :4robinf: did it better.

She's low priority as any character


Stage Theme DLC
Chance:50%
Want:100%

Stage DLC other than Miiverse
Chance & Want:100%
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Micaiah

Chance: 5%

Just like Zael, she may have moveset potential, but she's not highly requested.

Want: 10%

She might be an interesting fighter, I've had enough Fire Emblem characters for one Smash Bros. game.

DLC Stages Besides Miiverse

Chance: 90%

Dreamland 64 was leaked in a similar fashion to Royu.

Want: 100%


Themed DLC Stage Packs

Chance: 50%

This could go either way.

Want: 100%

Sure!

Nomination: Owain x5
 
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StormC

Smash Hero
Joined
Oct 29, 2014
Messages
8,392
Micaiah
Chance: 1%. I don't think she's ever been a remotely popular request.

Want: 0%. Robin is already perfect as a magic user from Fire Emblem and I don't otherwise care for this character in the least.

Stage DLC (both)
Chance: Abstain.
Want: 100%

Beast Ganon 5x
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Micaiah:

Chance: 0.1%.

Roy's coming, and Ike already represents Tellius.

Want:ABSTAINED

DLC Stages besides Miiverse:

Chance:99.9%

Stage music was found in the data files as well as 14 extra stage slots which means seven new stages. As well as the Kirby 3DS Classic glitch.

Want:100%

Of course!

DLC stage themed packs.

Chance: 50%

Maybe, they do take less time than a character.

Want: 100%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 

Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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8,847
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SW-3397-5428-2304
Ike's Luigi...

Micaiah


Chance: 0.5%
Radiant Dawn wasn't nearly as well received as Awakening, which is why Awakening got at least two characters, other than Ike there really is no reason to bring in a character from that game since most people who play Fire Emblem started with Awakening, and haven't touched Radiant Dawn (not counting hardcore fans obviously). That said, other than Roy there really is no other Fire Emblem character (maybe Lyn who's got the NPC curse) that is being heavily demanded since...Fire Emblem has more characters than DK, Metroid, and Kirby...all bigger franchises, and with Roy's inclusion it'll be on par with Zelda....Having a sixth Fire Emblem character would need to have something extraordinary about them...especially to get past all the fan hatred...Micaiah doesn't have that....

----

Want: 0%
When it comes to Fire Emblem characters I'll tolerate Roy, since he was a former main...but after that...I'll just give a big fat NO! Let's see some bigger name franchises get some more representation instead of milking a franchise that is still establishing itself after releasing more than a dozen games...

----

DLC Themed Stage Packs

Chance: 20%
I'm going off of the assumption that this is pretty much like '64 Stage Pack,' 'Mario Stage Pack,' 'Kirby Stage Pack,' etc...I mean it could happen...Stages are a lot of work (not as much as a character) so it is likely that we'll get one stage at a time (save for past game stages which just need to be ported)...Perhaps I'm over thinking this...

----

Want: 90%
Sure why not? More stages to mess around on...

----

DLC Stages besides Miiverse

Chance: 95%
There isn't really a doubt that we'll get more stages released for DLC...After Characters, stages are viewed as the better forms of representation in Smash as it places the characters within the environments of the various games. People will pay since there is so much that can be done with stages that can represent unrepresentated franchises (A Rhythm Heaven stage would be a huge seller for example) or bringing back old Stages, such as those from the 64, melee, and Brawl...

----

Want: 100%
Unlimited Potential for Awesomeness....
Zelda
-Clock Tower, with changing events as time passes, before the moon crashes and time reverts back to the beginning (a la reset bomb)
-Lorule Castle, Imagine a vertical scrolling stage much like Icicle Mountain and Rumble Falls, but within a Castle with various hazards throughout as you climb to the top
-Shadow Temple, one of my personal favourite temples, but first off it would be nice for OoT to have a stage, and all the Ghostly themes and invisible torture objects would be fun to have within the stage, perhpas a Floormaster could drop from above and grab an unsuspecting player and pull upwards into the blast zone...before anyone brings up the rating issue OoT was still Rated E...despite having this guy...
-Pirate Ship, bring it back Sakurai...pwetty pweez...

Metroid
-Something that doesn't have lava!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-Phendrana Drifts, first there is no Ice Stage, Phendrana is one of the most memorable areas within the Prime series (a series with next to no recognition) imagine Sheegoths and Flickerbats moving about, perhaps with the occasional Hunter Metroid wrecking havoc on the field...
-Skytown, An ancient floating city...okay Skyloft kinda has that role, but Skyloft doesn't have mechanoids and steam based machinery that Skytown has, possibly have Ghor as a stage boss, maybe...

Other Cool Stages
-Rhythm Heaven stage, because it would be awesome!
-An underwater stage, physics don't need to change but it's be different having an aquatic theme throughout the stage, with fishes that swim away as fighters come near and seaweed that moves with any nearby action, y'know little things to make the environment come to life...
-Mario Strikers Stage, We got the soccer ball give us the nets Sakurai!!!
-all 64, melee and Brawl stages that aren't available in game...(specifically, Hyrule Castle, Poke Floats, Brinstar Depths, Big Blue, Pirate Ship as mentioned, etc, etc, etc)

----

Prediction:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%?

----

Chalk up another successful prediction!!

Nominations:
Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x6 (What if...there were rivalries in this adventure mode...each fighter has a set rival that must be battled repeatedly throught the adventure until beating them for good before the final showdown, (ie, Mario has Bowser, Wario has Mario, Zelda has Peach, Sonic has Mario, Link has Ganondorf, Lucas has Wario, Lucina has Marth, King Dedede has Bowser, Marth has Link, etc...) there wouldn't be a need for a cutscene for every single rivalry especially if the Adventure mode takes after melee's, perhaps a small cutscene here and there like Luigi footstooling Mario or Giga Bowser transformation)
Concept: Alpha Stages x2
!Rerate: Inklings x1
Pig Ganon x1 (or Beast Ganon, or just Ganon, or whatever the **** you want to call him)
 

Roaring Salsa

A dragon never yields
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Messages
2,049
Location
Courtroom No. 4
Micaiah

Chance: 4%
So I've looked back at my rating of Anna, and I must admit I was a bit harsh with her. Micaiah's main problem though is that if FE even gets a 2nd DLC character, there's Anna and the new guys hogging most of the support, I think.

Want: 20%
After thinking it again, my main gripe with FE characters was the abundance of swords despite the many other weapons and transformations the series has (however I still feel Smash doesn't really need so many FE characters). While I was never really interested in Anna to be honest, there's something in Micaiah I find peculiar. Sadly, she seems to be a really unlucky character; Ike pretty much stole the game once he appeared and how come she doesn't even have a trophy yet?

DLC Stages besides Miiverse

Chance: 50%
Either we get DLC stages or not.

Want: 100%
Of course. I'll eventually get tired of picking the same stages any moment from now.

Nominations
Tingle x3
Bubsy x2
 

PreedReve

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
416
Micaiah

Chance: 5%
Micaiah has to contend with the threat of Roy returning, Chrom finally getting his chance, two female characters that have been in multiple FE games, Anna and Tiki, and a female assist-trophy waiting to get upgraded, Lyndis.

Want: 50%
I've never played Radiant Dawn but I'm always up for more, none-clone characters.

More DLC Stages

Chance: 90%
Nintendo would be silly to not make more types of DLC and fanservice.

Want: 100%

DLC Stage Theme Packs

Chance: 90%
I mean, IF Nintendo makes stages, there's no way they wouldn't remake old courses and they're already bundling stuff so...

Want: 100%

Nomination
Style Savvy Rep x3
DLC Adventure/Story Mode x2
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,786
Micaiah

Chance - 0.2% - With Robin taking magic and Ike taking her games, she is poorly overshadowed by many other lords within her own series. Not even particularly popular or reoccurring, IS would most likely suggest someone else. With Roy most likely on the way, she is extremely unlikely.

Want - 40% - Eh... there are other characters in the same franchise I want more.


DLC stage pack

Chance - 37.5% - Possible, but I consider individual releases more likely.

More DLC stages

Chance - 90% - That said, I consider it almost inevitable that we will get at least one more.

Want for both - 100% - There are plenty of stages that could be interesting that I want.


Nominations
Karate Joe X5
 

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
My reaction to new Palutena's Guidance conversations getting a higher want score than DLC characters getting custom moves:

Fire Emblem character #986... okay, Micaiah chances: 0.25%
The most notable thing Micaiah has going for her is that she's arguably the most famous user of light magic in Fire Emblem, plus she's a protagonist and not some random unit. But in all honesty that's not saying much... with Ike already representing Radiant Dawn (plus Path of Radiance to an extent) and the fact I don't see why Sakurai would (re?)consider her unless she somehow manages to get an impressive ballot support, I can't see her making it.

Any more Fire Emblem characters want: 0%
I'm really, really not excited at all about the possibility of any Fire Emblem newcomer; we're getting Roy, who I'm okay with because of his role into helping making FE a relatively big thing after his appearance in Melee, but anyone else beyond that would feel like it's really pushing it. The "over-representation" thing is not the problem (though I guess it counts for something), but really there are several factors that make me want to not see any Fire Emblem newcomer at this point:

> Fire Emblem characters usually lack star power by themselves, and star power is one of the most important things I'm looking for when considering characters to be playable in Super Smash Bros.;
> there are so many protagonists and characters who stand out from the average units, that it eventually makes none of them stand out;
> the Fire Emblem gameplay is honestly quite hard to translate to the Super Smash Bros. format and I think creating a new moveset to anyone just because they have a different kind of weapon or swordplay style doesn't mean it's worth it. Most of the general FE concepts such as skills (Marth having special moves reminiscent of Luna, Astra and Ambush/Vantage) and magic/multi-weapon moveset (Robin) already had been explored anyway.

Sure, there are unrepresented aspects of the Fire Emblem series which could deserve to be shown in Super Smash Bros. such as lances, axes, dragon transformations, or in the relevant case light magic and staffs but honestly those are not worth a new Smash character moveset imo. If more Fire Emblem characters are added to Smash Bros. to represent those concepts then I'd much rather see them added as Assist Trophies, the area where Fire Emblem is actually quite lacking, rather than underwhelming playable roster choices.

And for Micaiah herself, she's no exception and as much as I love Radiant Dawn I have no desire to see her playable whatsoever; Ike is enough for me. If I want further RD representation I'd much rather have (warning: FE10 spoilers)
Not to mention one of Micaiah's signature traits is her Sacrifice ability that makes her able to heal other units without staff at the cost of her own HPs... and I can't see how that could translate into Smash. Unless you make it a team battle only ability, but ehh...

-----

DLC stages beyond Miiverse chances: 99.99%
I really considered giving this an absolute 100% in chances, but I won't take the risk to refute the possibility that it could possibly not happen if it somehow doesn't happen. In-game data suggests that they're coming, and the 1.0.6 update on the 3DS versions added two Kirby songs including the 64 Dream Land. Also going to classic mode in the 3DS version taking a Kirby path sometimes makes the player fight opponents on Battlefield rather than GB Dream Land, suggesting that the game tries to load a non-existent Kirby stage then replaces it with Battlefield as a placeholder.

Plus stages as DLC make so much sense. Cut characters come back as DLC because people miss them, but they miss stages as well!

DLC stages beyond Miiverse want: 100%
Yes of course! It would be great to see past stages coming back, as it'd be an awesome way to use nostalgia. Plus new stages means new musics.

-----

Themed DLC stages packs chances: 74.99%
Mii costumes can be purchased as a bundle, and I think we're getting more than one single stage per update. It's something I think is likely. (Removed 0.01% from original 75% rating because of the minuscule possibility that DLC stages may not be a thing :p)

Themed DLC stages packs want: 100%
If it means we're getting several past stages for a discounted price then I'm all for it.

-----

Okay, that was a triple rating today. I'm so hyped for this special E3 week, it'll change the pace of this game and we will get a lot of new stuff from the Smash presentation and Digital Event!

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Tetrimino x10

@ Aetheri Aetheri I really feel sorry for preventing you to get ten extra noms today because of my prediction score awfully close to yours... if only I realized that in Bayonetta's day I would have edited my prediction score and rallied with you xD

... Okay you know what, I don't care, I'll still do predictions today. I know it's technically useless since there will be no nomination reward from this, but I'll do it just for fun.

> Most overrated: Chibi-Robo. People will think his chances score is overinflated because of Zip Lash; just because you have a new game doesn't mean you're more likely for Smash.
> Most underrated: (Concept) Rhythm Heaven character. A decent amount of people saw this concept as more likely than not during its day.
> Most accurate: Wolf. He's seen as a shoo-in.

Note: those predictions don't necessarily represent what I'm going to vote for tomorrow.
 
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Divemissile

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 11, 2015
Messages
110
NNID
What_garbage
Mcaiah
Chance: 10%
We already have plenty off Fire Emblem characters
Want: 0%
Never played radiant dawn

DLC stages after miiverse
Chance 99%
Dream land 64 music was leaked
Want: 100%
Please Sakurai, do it!

Themed stage packs
Chance: 60%
I could see it happening
Want: 100%
I'd love to have it

Nominating
Quote from Cave storyx1
Indie characters in generalx4
 
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[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]

Off floating somewhere
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
5,209
OK time to rate, WHAT!? 3 DIFFERENT THINGS!?


Micaiah

Chance: 0%
NO MORE FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS! WE HAVE TOO MANY!

Want: 1%
No...More... FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS!


Predictions: DLC stages after Miiverse 90%

Predictions: Themed DLC stage packs 50%

DLC stages after Miiverse

Chance: 90%
Good chance of happening.

Want: 70%
There are some old stages I want back, but I want character DLC more than stage DLC.

Themed DLC stage packs

Chance: 50%
Could happen.

Want: 50%
Depends on the package.

Nominations: Sami X5.
 

Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
Joined
Mar 23, 2012
Messages
3,972
Location
St. Louis, MO
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Delzethin
A trio. This is one hell of a way to end our first arc.

Strap in, everyone. After today, things are going to get crazy.

--

Micaiah

Chance: 5.5%
The Silver-Haired Maiden, protagonist of the first part of Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn and, after an interlude, co-protagonist with Ike for its remainder. Though both her and her game are a bit divisive, she still has a decent amount of fans, especially in Japan. As well, being a mage--and specifically, a wielder of light magic--means she'd find a unique niche on the Smash roster more easily. And if the developers decided she could also use the staves she gains from her promoted classes without it being too much of a stretch? Her moveset potential would actually be pretty good.

However...it'd still practically take a miracle for her to make it now. As I mentioned on Anna's day, support for Fire Emblem characters has fallen off, with the fanbase mostly putting a minor following behind a few different characters--although Micaiah is one of them. Unfortunately, it may not matter if she continues to see next to no help from non-Fire Emblem fans, who generally don't care about any character from the series unless they're red haired and wield a flaming sword.

At this point, for her to have any plausible chance, it'd have to come from an upswing of relevance from, say, an HD remake of the Tellius games.

Want: 50%
I'm as big a fan of mage characters as always, and we don't really have anyone with light-based attacks. I'm also kind of a big Fire Emblem fan and I'd be totally fine with another FE newcomer if they brought something interesting to Smash unlike a certain Young Lion.

Kind of a shame, really. If Brawl had been capable of DLC, she may have had a legitimate chance back then.


Concept: Additional DLC Stages (After Miiverse)

Chance: 90%
Have we really gone this long without discussing stage DLC? Well, basically...it's really likely. We've seen two characters already (with placeholders for five more already!) and a ton of Mii costumes already. Stages are another crucial part of Smash, and if they're going as all out with DLC as they claim to be, stages would be on the table. It only makes sense, as far as I can tell.

Plus, there's that whole thing where the data mining that found victory themes for Roy and Ryu also found two music files that strongly hint toward Dream Land 64 being in the works for the 3DS version...and a bug in the 3DS version that also strongly hints that a new Kirby stage is coming.

Want: 100%
As a Smash fan in general, more stages would mean more opportunities to bring in new locations and ideas from throughout Nintendo's games...as well as bringing back some of the most well-loved ones that didn't make the initial cut. As a competitive player, more stages would mean more potentially tournament-viable stages, which is definitely a plus.


Concept: Legacy Stage Packs

Chance: 30%
While the previous concept was pretty cut and dry, this one's tougher to pin down. Would there be DLC packs that contain groups of stages from one or more of the previous Smash games?

It's...tough to say. On one hand, it certainly seems like the kind of thing they could do. On the other...is the fact that we have no point of reference for any additional stages and no precedent for DLC being released in packs instead of indivitual purchases. At this point, I have to lean toward it not happening. We'll probably see a few returning stages, but I want to say they'll be separate just like the rest of the DLC we've seen so far.

Or available in a bundle deal if you buy the entire wave at once, but that's a different story. >_>

Want: 30%
I don't see the appeal of putting them into packs at this point, to be honest. All the DLC so far has been available individually and seems to be doing well, so why cram stages together when they could be available on their own? Let people buy the exact ones they want instead of forcing them to also pay for something they might not want.


Nominations:
With no one in the danger zone that I'm super interested in, let's end this, for now, the way I've ended all month.
Absol x5
 
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ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,631
Location
France
@ Delzethin Delzethin your stage pack want rating looks like this concept and DLC stages being sold separately are mutually exclusive... on the other hand I rated it with the possibility of buying either the packs or the individual stages in mind, just like how you can buy Mii costumes either separately or as a bundle. I'd like to have a clarification, are both mutually exclusive in this rating? In which case I'm going to edit my want rating (and chances btw).
 

Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
Joined
Mar 23, 2012
Messages
3,972
Location
St. Louis, MO
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Delzethin
@ Delzethin Delzethin your stage pack want rating looks like this concept and DLC stages being sold separately are mutually exclusive... on the other hand I rated it with the possibility of buying either the packs or the individual stages in mind, just like how you can buy Mii costumes either separately or as a bundle. I'd like to have a clarification, are both mutually exclusive in this rating? In which case I'm going to edit my want rating (and chances btw).
That nomination was rather vague. I was under the impression it was for having the legacy stages in packs first and foremost, divided by game. So one for Smash 64, one for Melee, and one for Brawl. I'd rather have any returning stages be available on their own, rather them shoehorning them into packs and having individual stages be an afterthought.

If I'm not making much sense, say something. This headache is doing things to me. >_>
 
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Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
10,596
Micaiah
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

DLC Stages after Miiverse
Chance: 90%
Want: 100%

Themed Stage DLC Packs
Chance: 50%
Want: 60%

Nominations: Gengar 5x
 
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FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
Joined
Dec 16, 2012
Messages
32,231
Location
India/भारत
3DS FC
1650-3685-3998
Switch FC
SW-5545-7990-4793
Wow, I wasn't expecting so many zeros. I thought Micaiah was averagely popular at least.

MICAIAH:
CHANCE: 2%

Micaiah has had it rough.Doomed to be over-shadowed in her own game by Ike, and doomed in Smash by Roy's return and Fire Emblem's abundant representation.

WANT: 60%
I like Micaiah as a character, as she's easily the most unique lord in the series, being light mage instead of a blue haird swordsman. Radiant Dawn also happens to be my absolute favourite game in the series, gameplay wise. So I wouldn't mind her inclusion, at all.


NON-MIIVERSE DLC STAGES:
CHANCE: 95%

The oft-overlooked aspect of the Roy-Ryu leak is the Dream Land 64 music found along with the victory theme files. These are certainly meant for a new stage instead of the 8-bit Dream Land we have already as shown by the glitch in Classic Mode which sometimes loads Battlefield instead.

WANT: 100%
Why wouldn't I want it? Stages are as much an integral part of the Smash experience as characters and music.


STAGE DLC PACKS:
CHANCE: 90%

Given Nintendo 's tendency to bundle up the DLC releases, it's a kind of inevitable, I think.

WANT: 50%
I don't think I'm going to buy all the DLC, so this doesn't affect me a whole lot.

ASHLEY x 5
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
6,650
Location
Somewhere Out There
Micaiah
Chance: 1%

So there's a new FE coming out and a new FE character coming to Smash.

Want: 0%
There are Pegasus Knights, spears and axes in that series and you pick shiny magix.
Yeah no.

Non-Miiverse Stage
Chance: 99%

Dreams come true

Want: 100%
You know what they say.

Tanooki Stage + Link = Still an insta-buy because I want Link.
Chance: 40%

Meh

Want: 50%
I don't care as I'd buy it either way.

Takamaru x5
 
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