Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Ninten
Chances: 1%
Another low chance character.
He is from a very small and niche series from Nintendo. The company don't really do much for this series because it's basically pretty much finished. With Lucas coming back because of "fan cry" I don't think the same is going to happen with this guy. He'll more than likely would end up being a clone of Ness or Lucas just to make things easier. I don't think we'll be seeing him.
Want: Abstain
As much as I like the Earthbound/Mother series I think we're fine with just Ness and Lucas. This franchise hasn't been relevant in a long time and other big franchises needs more represertation before a smaller one. I hate to say it like this but I think fans would like to see StarFox, Legend of Zelda, Donkey Kong, and Metroid get another newcomer from their franchise before F-Zero or Earthbound/Mother gets another one.

Geno Prediciton: 1%
Why must we always bring up Geno whenever Smash is concerend? I can already see Smashboards having a field day with this character. The thing I'm most excited for this character is really the comments.

Nominations
Ashley (Wario Ware) x2

 

[IvanQuote]

AGES:

Chance: 0 %

Looks nearly exactly like Ness. Even the clones have enough of a difference in appearance from their counterparts. Also, Mother has a very colorful cast of characters to choose from, so having someone who looks and probably functions the same as the current reps of the series would be a black mark on the series (on a side note, if he scores higher than Quote, so help me God).

Want: 0%

Just read the above, I couldn't bother to separate my bias from today's vote.

Geno predict:

Chance: 14%

Want: 70%

Noms: Moonstruck Blossom x5

Homecoming Hijinx x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

No offense guys, but the Looks like Ness excuse has already been shredded by Dark Pit.
That shouldn't really be a problem.

 

[Aetheri]

No offense guys, but the Looks like Ness excuse has already been shredded by Dark Pit.
That shouldn't really be a problem.

Except Dark Pit is Sakurai's Baby different colours at least...

 

[IceBreakerXY]

No offense guys, but the Looks like Ness excuse has already been shredded by Dark Pit.
That shouldn't really be a problem.

there's a difference from being a different color and looking completly identical

Ninten change:2%
Looks a hell of a lot like ness not to mention the way the mother series has been treated by nintendo i wouldn't be surprised if smash is the only well see ness and lucas forever

Ninten want:2%
I love mother but i'm more of a porky and masked man type of guy as i feel they could be a lot more unique than ness and lucas and plus there villians and we realllly need more of thsoe.

Slippy x 5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ninten

Chance: 1%. Lucas has already been announced and Ninten is way too similar to Ness.

Want: 20% Only because I like the Mother Series. But Ninten is my least favourite of the three protagonists.

Geno Prediction: 9.97%

Nomination:

Mother 3 Stage x3

Lloyd Irving x2

 

[Bebe Mignon]

NINTEN
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

GENO
Prediction: 12.27%

NOMINATION
Elma x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

If we go by the clay model of Mother 1, he does have a pretty distinct appearance with his circular head and eyes. I've argued about this with Dark Pit for a long time before he was revealed, similarly it should not be a problem with Ninten either if Sakurai were to include him.

 

[FancySmash]

Ninten

Chance 1% - If he was an alt for Ness, I feel like these chances would be higher. I can't give Ninten a complete 0% because let's not forget, he is represented in Ness' Magicant, so he was at least thought of, (he may be down but he's not out). He looks greatly similar to Ness, and doesn't have much on his own to stand out from him (they made him similar to Ness so Mother 2 players could name him "Ninten" and pretend they're continuing Mother 1 directly).

Want: 20% - Again, the same applies to the want score as the chance score (it's higher if he becomes an alt for Ness, if this were the case(y bat), make it 100). (Couldn't help the reference in there). I do feel sort of bad for Ninten, overshadowed by both Ness and Lucas. Of course, us in the US have no real connection to Ninten, and only a slight connection to Lucas. Out of the three, Ness is my favorite just because I was able to play Earthbound/Mother 2 (sorry, I know it's unfair ). I don't mind Ninten, I'd like to get to know his character, but he just doesn't have the stardom of the other two.

Predictions: Geno. Oh, Geno, this will be... maybe OK? 6.67%

Nominations:
Meowth X3
Chibi-Robo X2

 

[ES. Dinah]

Ninten

Chances: 0%

We have Ness and if we need another Earthbound rep it should be Porky. I don't see what Ninten would do differently. Ness and Lucas are more popular and Ninten is pretty much not relevant, imo. I'm not even a fan of him as a fighter. I won't say more...

Want: 0%

We have Ness and Lucas already. I don't need another Ness lookalike that is better uses as an alt and not a clone.

Nominations: KOS-MOSX5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Before the day is over, I will nominate Waluigi X3 and Tingle X2.

 

[Ura]

Ninten

Chance: 5%

As far as Smash 4 goes, he's most likely not getting in with Lucas already in.

Want: 80%

He would complete the trio of Mother protagonists and he can easily be different from Ness. I really hope he gets in Smash 5.

Prediction
Geno: 50%

Nominations
*Concept: Roy has his Awakening attire as his default attire* X1
*Concept: Decloned Roy* X4

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ninten
Chance: 0% - That's right, I'm going there. Making Ninten a DLC newcomer makes absolutely no sense to me. He has almost no support anywhere in the world and probably has less votes on the ballot than any character we've rated. We also already have Lucas as DLC, adding Ninten would almost feel like we'd be paying for the same character twice.
Want: 0% - No thanks

Geno Prediction: 7%

Nominations: DLC Music Pack

DAY OVER
100TH PAGE CELEBRATION​

 

[colder_than_ice]

NINTEN
CHANCE: 3.74%
WANT: 19.10%​

Ninten actually managed to beat Midna & Wolf Link in "chance" rating, but got the lowest "want" rating of any character to date. Next up we're rating Geno of Super Mario RPG fame. Also please predict what scores both Squirtle and Ivysaur will get tomorrow. That's right it's the perfect day to do a double rating.

 

[NintenRob]

Geno

Chance & Want: 0%
A side character from a third party spin-off game thats a part of a franchise with a huge amount of other characters who are much more iconic and are actually owned by Nintendo.

Nominate R.O.B. eye bug fix x5

Predictions
Squirtle 39.5%
Ivysaur 29.1%

 

[Zerp]

Spoiler

Roy C 85% W 30% (opinion has now changed to 0% want)
Ridley C 5% W 70%
Chorus Kiddos C 17% W 10%
Magolor C 23% W 100%
Midna and inferior Star Wolf C 0% W 0%
Ray C 10% W 20%
Tetra C 15% W 40%
Pichu C 45% W 90%
Ryu C 75% W 5%
Daisy C 15% W2%
Ninten C 10% W 30%
Dlccostumes C 75% W 90%

Geno
Chance 0.1%: Yes, I believe he's even less likely than Ridley, please don't hurt me. Square Enix holds the rights to Geno and all the characters in SMRPG that aren't Mario characters originally. Even then he has a chance, as a third partycandidate, but out of his competitors, he's quite small in terms of significance and definitely doesn't have enough demand.

Want: 7% I don't really care for him, and while he has some moveset potential, I'd rather a character's personality be the main reason they get in. His inclusion would also smack of bias, in my eyes at least.
Predictions: 15% C 15% C
Nominations: Dark Matter x 5 (If not possible give these votes to the good Dr. Eggman.)

 

[Bebe Mignon]

GENO
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Sorry, I just don't care for him and don't think he's likely at all.

IVYSAUR
Prediction: 19.67%

SQUIRTLE
Prediction: 20.09%

NOMINATION
Elma x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Woohoo! 100 pages! Double header tomorrow!

So... on to the day at hand...

♪!? (or Geno, if you will...)

Chance: 8%

So I'll give him a score between what we rated for Shantae and Quote. Why? He's got the same things going for him.
Geno is a Square Enix character, hands down. He's only been in one game, which was popular, but didn't get much coverage since it came right at the ens of the SNES lifetime. Also, Super Mario RPG definitely was different than the other games. ...OK, fine, Geno did manage to show up as a cameo in Superstar Saga, but only as a cameo - and the credits still made sure to say that he belongs to Square Enix.
So look at everything I've said about the other third parties.
Notably, Geno also is highly requested by a vocal fanbase, but has so little exposure otherwise due to his one-game-wonder status. I think a lot of that cancels out, and he's left with little chance of getting in.
​

Want: 0%

Obscure third party marginally related to, and subsequently forgotten by, the Mario series? Next... Even for third parties, I'd take someone else.
​

Predictions:

25.2% for both mons. I think each has a benefit and drawback and will cancel out. I expect that there will be less than 1% difference between the two.
​

Nominations:

Takamaru x2
Ghirahim x2
Waluigi x1​

 

[A10theHero]

Geno
Chance: 3%
+Was in a Mario game
- Third-party
~- Not really popular on the ballot

Want: 89%

Prediction:
Squirtle: 24%
Ivysaur: 27%

Nomination:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Past Evaluation Scores

Spoiler

K.Rool Chance: 87% Want: 100
Banjo & Kazooie Chance: 3% Want: 14%
Isaac Chance: 70% Want: 90%
Bandanna Dee Chance: 42% Want: 50%
Captain Toad: Abstained chance and want
Krystal Chance: 36% Want: 71%
Dixie Kong Chance: 40% Want: 43%
Impa Chance: 35% Want 79%
Shantae Chance: 10% Want 54%
Inklings Chance: 31% Want: 51%
Rayman Chance: 61% Want 89%
Snake Chance: 35% Want: 50%
Wolf Chance: 98% Want: 100%
Shovel Knight Chance: 13% Want 65%
Quote Chance 8% Want: 4%
Ice Climbers Chance: 25% Want: 40%
Sceptile: Chance: 12.60 Want: 52%
Wonder Red Chance: 18% Want: 78%
Promoted NPCs Chance: 13% Want: 30%
Henry Fleming Chance: 13.20 Want: 57%
Paper Mario Chances: 14% Want: 8%
Roy Chance: 98% Want 100%
Ridley Chance: 5% Want 75%
Chorus Men Chance: 9% Want: 45%
DLC Costumes: Chance 80% Want: 100%
Magolor Chance: 7% Want: 46%
Wolf Link and Midna Chance: 3% Want: 25%
Ray Chance: 37% Want 55%
Tetra Chance: 19% Want: 46%
Pichu Chance: 30% Want: 68%
Ryu Chance 98% Want: 75%
Phoenix Wright Chance: 7% Want: 100%
Lip: Abstained Chance and Want
Simon Belmont Chance: 4% Want 57%
Daisy Chance: 21% Want: 10%
Ninten Chance and Want 1%
Geno Chance: 1% Want: 13%

Geno, one of the most widely contested characters for a spot in Smash Bros - But sadly, Square Enix owns the rights to him at at the moment. This affects his chances quite severely, so I'd place him at 1% at the moment. If Geno were to be Nintendo's property, his chances would be better and he could become a more mainstream character in the Mario series.

Want: 13%
I don't really see Geno as a fighter for Smash Bros unless Nintendo has full ownership of him. If he was a more prominent character in the Mario series and fully owned Nintendo character and in more games, I'd be more interested in him.

Nominations: Waluigi X3 Tingle X2

Squirtle and Ivysaur Chances: 4.50% for both

 

[Roaring Salsa]

Geno

Chance: 1%
Well, at least he has appeared in a Mario game.

Want: 0%
Too obscure, too much Mario already and way many other third parties I'd prefer to see.

Nominations:
Monita x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@Azure Warrior and @Nintendotard both get an extra five today.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Geno Chance:
10%
The only benefits going for him really is that he's one of the most voted in the ballot right now, so that should have Sakurai consider him once again. He does have some distinct abilities and comes from the most critically acclaimed Mario RPG game ever. Other than that, there's not much going for him with upcoming games either, so he's likely not a pre-ballot candidate. One big problem I see Geno getting in is that he's the least used Mario character used by Nintendo right now due to Square, and they don't seem to care about putting Geno in games despite the demand.

Wish I said he had a big chance, but the main problems really hurt his chances in the long run.

Geno Want:
100%
Those who played the game Super Mario RPG know exactly why he should he be playable. He's badass OP and has a very cool design and one of the most nostalgic Mario characters ever. If he's playable, I will squee hard.

Squirtle Prediction:
5.353%
Don't know what I can say here really.

Ivysaur Prediction:
7.564%
Probably will be similar to Squirtle's, only being a Grass type and him having a more unique moveset.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link

 

[RaenUE]

Geno:
Chances: 1%
From what I understand, Square Enix isn't exactly friendly when to comes to sharing their IPs, and Nintendo mostly ignores SMRPG as a result.
People also seem to have relatively mixed feelings about Geno, and it's really hard to read, so I can't say that I see an intense demand for him
+5% for ballot, -50% for Square Enix hogging their IPs, x0 then +1% for "well it's not impossible" and "I'm going to stick to whole numbers"

Want: 0%
He's not exactly pleasing to look at and I'd prefer we not get another Mario rep, let alone one that Nintendo will have to jump through legal hoops to put in (which would increase development time, and as a result possibly reduce the number DLC reps we have. What an incredible leap in logic~)
I'd rather Cooking Mama be the Squeenix rep, anyway.
Nobody's Better than Mama

Squirtle prediction: 30%
Ivysaur prediction: 20%

Nomination:
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Geno
Its song time,

Chance: 0%
Super Mario RPG, it is the only one just for me, I went to the Rate the characters thread, then I found I was rating Geno,
His chance is 0 all because of Square, claiming Geno, not Nintendo. If only Nintendo owned Geno, then maybe he could be in smash.

Want: 10%
There are many secrets in the thread, many of which drive the mods insane, Geno would be cool with his cool Geno whirl, but I think we have enough Mario reps.

Prediction: Squirtle 30% Ivysaur 30%
Predicting characters is super simple all you do is follow the pattern....

Nomination: BB bandit trio X5.
And nominate the BB bandit trio.

 

[NintenRob]

comes from the most critically acclaimed Mario RPG game ever.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_&_Luigi:_Bowser's_Inside_Story#Reception
"Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story received critical acclaim and is the highest rated game of the RPG Mario games"
It might be wikipedia, but it still has the scores listed there.

 

[Chalo5000]

Chance 0%

Want 0%
Unlike other characters, I don't care for Geno's fans

15%
15%

Poochy x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Geno

He's a fan-favorite character from an old Square-developed SNES RPG featuring Mario and company, he would represent the close relationship Nintendo once had with Square (now Square Enix), he may have moveset potential, and...that's about all this guy has going for him.

As for the negatives, oh boy.

• His only major appearance was in a game that isn't very important to the Mario series as a whole. It may have influenced later Mario RPG's including the Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi subseries, but not even those games have any playable representation in Smash.
• He's a property of Square Enix, not Nintendo. If Sakurai wanted a character to represent the Mario RPG's, there are cheaper, quicker, easier, and more relevant alternatives such as Paper Mario and Fawful, both of which are owned by Nintendo.
• If Sakurai, for whatever reason, wanted a Square Enix representative, Geno suffers fierce competition with higher contenders such as the iconic Black Mage from the Final Fantasy series and the very recent Agnes Oblige from Bravely Default and its upcoming sequel, Bravely Second. And Square Enix is very strict with their licenses if I'm not mistaken.

Chance: 1%

At least he isn't owned by Konami.

Want: 60%

There are other Square Enix characters that I would prefer, but Geno wouldn't be a bad choice.

Prediction: Squirtle - 20%; Ivysaur - 20%

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Geno
Chance- 2%
A third party character from a single game from a long time ago. Not exactly great Sakurai credentials. Maybe if it was on the NES or the Wii U or something… but no. All he really has is popularity, and even that really collapsed after Brawl came out. Oh well.
Want- 8%
For move set potential. But I never really saw why he should be in the game.

Predictions:
Squirtle- 27%
Ivysaur- 32%

Popularity vs. type. I feel like some people will lean more towards favoring type.

Nominations:
Crono x5

 

[smileMasky]

Geno (the weponized doll seriously why the Gaz does a hid toad have such a strong doll?)
Chance 3%
is a square enix character from what I've heard and Geno is in limbo I don't think we will see him in sadly
Want 30%
he was good in SMRPG all really ranged attacks but I'm not really feeling it for him to be in it as DLC at this point

Nomination
3rd party 2nds x 5

 

[IvanQuote]

Genie:

Chance: 8%

I sadly don't see Square giving him up anytime soon. Even then, tere are other characters that are sooner to get positions than him.

Want: 40%

I really like Geno, but I'm still not wanting another Mario character. This is hypocritical, isn't it?

Ivysaur Predict:

Chance: 27%

Want: 68%

Nom: Moonstruck Blossom x3

Homecoming Hijinx x2

 

[sogeki]

Geno-
Chance: 0.000000001%. He is from a third party spin off from an already over represented series that Sakurai does not even seem to notice.
Want: 2%.

Ivysquirt Prediction: 23%.

Nominations: Vaati x5.

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Geno-
Chance- 0%
There is no way in HELL he's getting in

Want- 0%
**** Geno. Super Mario RPG is so overrated, Paper Mario is waaaaay better.

Ivysquirt prediction- 25%

Nominations- Chrom X5

 

[Aetheri]

♪!?

Chance: 5%
So, he's been in a Mario game. 'A' Mario game. With the likes of characters like Toad, Waluigi, Daisy who still have yet to be featured as playable fighters in smash, a character that has appeared in just one Mario game doesn't really have too much for himself in that regard in comparison to recurring characters that are not only more iconic than he is much much more popular. On top of all that he isn't even Nintendo property... We don't even know if Square Enix is willing to contribute to the Smash series but if they are the likes of the Black Mage who could be a good representative for their hugely successful Final Fantasy series, or Agnes Oblige for the well received Bravely Default, both of these characters seem to stand a much better chance if Square Enix is willing to collaborate.

However, Geno has been requested for a fairly long time since before Brawl, he's got some popularity despite being involved with just one game (one that came out years ago, mind you, though one could argue that he's retro) and perhaps one or two cameos here and there. His slight popularity and his direct association with Mario prevents me from giving him a flat zero, but his chances are still quite abysmal in my opinion.

----

Want: 15%
Eh...I'm not really all that interested in Geno tbh...But perhaps he may be a fun character to use. At the same time there are plenty of other characters I'd like to see added to DLC before him.

----

Prediction:
Oh Boy Big Double Header coming up!!
Squirtle-11.2%++maybe?(popular pokes that belong to Ash in the anime)
Ivysaur-13.5%++maybe?(grass,fire,water starter trifecta)

----

Nominations:
Dark Samus x5
aka NOT ♪!?...

 

[Double0Groove]

Geno:
Chance: 25%
Despite what people say, Square Enix and Nintendo have been on relatively good terms with each other. They've collaborated on 3 games with each other and although they haven't shown Nintendo consoles much support, they HAVE been supporting their handhelds for years. SE has also allowed Nintendo to put Geno in Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga as a cameo appearance, so getting the rights to use in Smash isn't within the realm of impossibility. However he does lack the popularity needed to win the ballot which greatly hurts his chances.

Want: 25%
He's not really my character of choice, but I wouldn't really mind seeing him join either.

Nomination: Sora x5

 

[JBRPG]

Geno:

Chance - 4%

Want - 10%

Prediction:

Squirtle: 21%
Ivysaur: 23%

Nomination: Bayonetta x 5

 

[Delzethin]

I serve...a higher authority.

-♪-

Geno

Chance: 2.5%
Ever the fan favorite, Geno is a beloved character...that happens to be a one-off from a 20-year-old Mario spinoff made by what is now Square Enix. That combination of words presents a mountain of problems.

Geno's debut--and only appearance outside a surprise cameo--came from a game that has long fallen out of the public eye. While there's still a cult following--understandably, Super Mario RPG is pretty damn fun--it cannot overcome a total lack of relevance outside of said cult following. As it stands, Geno is lucky to reach the 20s in straw polls, showing a decline in support even since Brawl that undoubtedly carries over to the Smash Ballot.

Then there's the issue about how his rights actually belong to Square Enix. The number of extra hoops to be jumped through and money spent would make any third party character risky for DLC, even more so when said character hasn't been relevant in decades with an "s". Even though Square Enix has been on better terms with Nintendo lately than Konami or Ubisoft have, it may not even better. After all, if SE got a chance to get one of their characters into Smash, why would they focus on a character as obscure as Geno when they could go with a more well-known and iconic one? Someone like Black Mage would be far more likely than Geno!

With so much against him and so little for him, it seems like this star won't see a chance unless several wishes come true...

Want: 90%
...Which really sucks, considering how interesting Geno is and how inspired his moveset could be.

An emissary of the stars (essentially the deities of the Mario-verse), he is sent to defeat the Smithy Gang, an extradimensional army of living weapons. To physically interact with the world, he chooses to inhabit the body of a child's toy, growing it to human size to better serve his cause, which soon leads him to join up with Mario.

To put it in laymen's terms, he's basically an angel possessing an action figure.

All of Geno's weapons and special attacks involve turning part of the doll's body into E-rated munitions. Some have him fire his fists off like rockets, others shoot bullets from his fingertips, convert his arms into rifles, or even blast shotgun shells from his elbow! Presumably, they're toy guns, but they can still pack a punch to enemies. And that's not even going into his magic, which allows him to charge up and fire lasers, fling destructive energy disks, buff his allies' abilities, rain multicolored beams down from the skies, or even morph his entire body into a cannon that fires a blast of searing light!

And that isn't even going into the gimmick he could have! Super Mario RPG was the first game of its kind to use action commands, and Geno could incorporate it into his moveset! By making extra inputs with the right timing, Geno's attacks could deal extra damage or knockback or gain additional properties!

So yeah. Big fan of the character. >_>


Squirtle Prediction: 20.75%
Ivysaur Prediction: 24.12%
I see the veteran card getting played pretty heavily for these two. Ivysaur will outscore Squirtle since the latter has to deal with there already being a water-user that arguably does more interesting things with the concept.


Nominations:
Concept: DLC Music Pack x4
Concept: Alpha-Form Stages x1

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Geno:

Chance: 2%
Want: 0%

Nom: Dragon Quest Hero x5

 

[Champ Gold]

Geno:
5% Chance
10% Want


Just let it go. It's been almost 9-10 years this has been going on. All from some flash about SMRPG

 

[StormC]

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/50%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/65%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%
28. Ray: 20%/35%
29. Tetra: 20%/20%
30. Pichu: 15%/0%
31. Ryu: 90%/30%
32. Phoenix Wright: 15%/55%
33. Lip: 15%/35%
34. Simon Belmont: 5%/30%
35. Daisy: 15%/0%
36. Ninten: 5%/10%

Chance: 5%. Obscure Mario character that for some reason got popular during the Brawl era. Still has fans. Third party.

Want: 30%. I love Super Mario RPG, but Geno isn't even the most notable character to come out of the game.

5x Beast Ganon

Squirtle/Ivysaur prediction: 20%